Bitcoin Forum

It's been so long since I stop using my account here for Campaign use and decided to ask some questions to get suggestions before going back and doing something new to increase and widen my income source at the same time holding my earned bitcoin a very long time to use it for trading this December.

I am having smooth work from school because it's online and seeing bitcoin price increase I was so eager to do trading to earn more, saw predictions that the market/stock price for bitcoin is increasing and will be on a skyrocket on December 2021. Now I am confused and that I should hold it or do short-term trading to get the chances of earning little by little?.

Question here

Do you believe in those predictions? Did the predictions for market price come true most of the time? did you use it for trading? or not?

from what I use to know did you just study how the signs (from what I used to know those signs are helpful and unpredictable) work when It goes down and up from time to time?

(My knowledge for trading years ago is a rookie/newbie and still is until now so if everything is nonsense enlighten me)

Screw predictions. Even the so called "experts" get it wrong A LOT, and let's not forget that drawing on charts won't be able to predict events in the first place.

Since you're interested in trading though, why not continue holding and simply allocate a certain percentage for your trading? You don't necessarily need to be all-in on trading or all-in on holding. It's possible to do both.

There are many uncertainty factors so all models are useless. They can be right for a while but there are time-points when they are useless and naively believe in models or predictions can kill you. Such a trader who say price will 100% move to this way is never a good trader. They are kinda traders contribute to flash crashes and huge liquidations on the market. The market often goes to the opposite direction of what most of people are thinking it will move.

Personally, the proportion for trading should be somewhere from 10 to 20%, the rest are for long term investment. Trading has its very special beauty and actively trading makes you really live in the market despite of it can distract you from the general situation. Look at chart in both narrow and wide windows even you are trading.

A prediction is usually a guess about the future, sometimes based on facts or evidence, but not always in all cases, to be on the safer side, it is usually best you allocate a fraction or percentage of your earnings to this prediction.

True. They can only help to a certain extent, but there are just so much outside factors outside of technical analysis that can render your "analysis" useless. This is why I would probably only recommend technical analysis for day traders.

Nope I didn't following any predictions from some expert speculator or economic, because they only speculating with his pure own speculation without any analysis or charting.

I'd say both of this thread would be better to read than an article outside forum :

• Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.0)
• Yet another analyst (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.0)

Sometimes it follows and sometimes it doesn't. You can't just believe with signs/trend only because the price are based on many factors and hard to predict.

I don't 100% believe in those predictions because I need to analyze them by myself. Some predictions can come true, but the other predictions do not come true, but I do not feel it bothers me because I know that no one will have an accurate prediction about the market. After I got those predictions, I will try to analyze them before I decide what I need to do, and if what I analyze almost similar to that predictions, I will use it for trading. But if it's not, I will not use it.

I am studying how the signs work for a long time ago, but I still make a mistake. I think that is I feel that I need to learn hard for more to have better analysis in trading. I know that I will need more time before I can understand that.

If you have almost no experience in crypto trading, do you think it is wise to start gambling with your crypto at the moment? The chances of losing are much higher than the chances of making a profit, unless you have beginner's luck that can happen to anyone. However, if you want to try, listen to the advice of mk4 - allocate a certain percentage of what you have in crypto/what you are willing to lose, and try to profit from it.



You cannot base your investments solely on speculation, especially the short-term ones you are talking about now. I believe there are people who know what they are talking about, but they give long-term predictions about what will happen to Bitcoin in 3-5 or maybe 10 years considering its past performance and what Bitcoin can achieve given its potential. Of course there are a lot of unknowns in that equation, so one should always count on possible surprises - who could have predicted a pandemic 2 years ago, or something bad that will happen in 2 years from today?

Everything in crypto is actually an uncertainty. So I believe in predictions that make sense. Because it will be a reference for me to step up and make decisions in crypto. If you don't believe in predictions, then what will crypto depend on? while the journey of crypto alone is often uncertain, the future alone does not know what crypto will be like.

Until now, I personally haven't been too focused on trading from some of the predictions that have been rumored. I felt that there was something that made me lack confidence in following other people's predictions, which I didn't really understand. So for that I tried to gather information from various predictions and sources then I drew my own conclusions and then saw how the movements in the market at that time and immediately executed them.

First of all it is not "stock", it is bitcoin and crypto in general, stocks are based on companies, there is no company here it is just currencies. There is no "market/stock price for bitcoin increasing" because it is not a stock. If you do not know that difference, you need to learn a lot more about bitcoin, and if you don't do that and just keep it going this way, you are going to lose a lot of money from lack of information.

I highly suggest you end up with a lot of studying before you make any move. Great thing about crypto is the fact that you are going to make a lot of profit if you actually put in the time and effort into it, all the people I know that worked hard to be part of this market for years became actually part of the market and made some profit, so give the time and work hard and your efforts will provide yield.

Predictions are mere guess with or without valid support, proof and evidence then it remains as a predictions. I believe what I believe but I don't rely my decision in trading or holding with those predictions. They are helpful in terms of encouragment if the crowd agrees with you.

But you have to remember that predictions has never been accurate with the price of bitcoin. Lucky are those who got it accurately but it doesn't happen casually. I would pursue holding for more years to come with or without good predictions. It is just a firm belief that bitcoin will soar high in the future.

You can make your trades that can be (un)-profitable or good trades. A profitable trade does not equal to a good trade. You can gamble and have a profitable trade but it is not a good trade. A good trade is made will full preparation for risk management.

In order to have good risk management, it can not be process with prediction. That's it. Prediction on bitcoin, altcoins, stock markets are unreliable and uncertain.

I think that in 2021 bitcoin will increase, the possibility is that it is true seeing in the world there are so many companies using blockchain technology that it will increase the value of bitcoin

You might be talking about PlanB's Bitcoin S2F model since his 100,000$ prediction is set at December 2021 which I think really is something that a lot of people are really convince about since PlanB created a convincing article about why he think it will skyrocket that way. From what I remember PlanB himself said that his model has flaws and it might not be accurate because the S2F model purely focuses on the supply of Bitcoin and it doesn't count any external factors that can affect it which I think has a great contribution to what will influence Bitcoin.

They're like astrologists, that study the stars, and how the positioning can manipulate/affect and predict your "fate".


No, just HODL.

OP, don't waste the thing that everyone in the market wants to take from you. Your Bitcoins.

I think that here meteorology can be better for comparing. Meteorologist measures factors like wind speed and direction, temperature, humidity... but with all their instruments, satellites, they make so many mistakes! :)
So when we see it's cloudy outside, we can assume that rain is coming any second! We have an hourly forecast where we can see the possibility for rain in %, so basically rain can really fall, or not! Weather can change!  
It's like that in crypto! You can have all the factors pointing in some direction, but if a strong wind comes from the other side it can change everything in very short time! And with weather, like with crypto, we can't say that didn't happen many times before!

What makes trading experts like Tone Vayes or Brian Beamish successful traders is the fact that they predict a little more than half of 100 trades (usually only 51) correctly. Exactly those few successful trades lead to the fact that you don't get out with a loss in the end.

So if you blindly follow their predictions, you will most likely end up with a loss. On Twitter and co. it all looks so simple, the traders post predictions, if they are correct, they are of course advertised in a big way. If not, one hears normally also nothing more of it. So in the end, you only see the successes, but you never see that there are also a lot of failures and sometimes heavy losses.

I agree.

Prediction often messed up because they lack in analysis to back up their claim about price prediction in both Bitcoin and Altcoins. The accuracy of price prediction in my opinion is just 80-90% accurate, the 10% always beat the rest. It's more profitable to simply buy low, sell high and not to be greedy, getting a $50 profit every price fluctuations is not that bad for a day trading.

Predictions in the Crypto market do not exist. The Crypto market is known for being unpredictable because if so, then there will be a lot of people are now become successful. Even now no one exactly knows when and how much does Bitcoin will set its new ATH, speculations are the most you can see and you can even make your own. I don't rely on predictions but rather on my own instinct. Feel free to make your own TA and don't rely onto others. One thing if you have no much enough knowledge on trading, long-term trade would pretty much perfect for you.

Personally, I don't try to believe them blindly. But it makes sense to me that maybe it could touch the predicted price one day. And what I think always that predictors always predict something over price and they can not make the correct time duration for the prediction.

I do not believe other peoples predictions, bitcoin is something that is unique and in a way that it is also not seen before which means nobody has any type of experience with trading something like this, you could try to do as great as you hopefully can but in the end you will not be capable of predicting it perfectly. Don't get me wrong this doesn't mean people are always wrong, I have met with a lot of people who made a profit, it just means that you are not going to be right every single time, I know someone (from telegram, not real life) who turned 7 bitcoins into 52 bitcoins, that dude was almost always right, but even he lost money in some trades he did. Which shows you that there is no guarantee in bitcoin or altcoin price predictions.

I do not momentarily believe on predictions a lot for they are called predictions because they were just expectations and possible guess of whatever interpretation someone could have based on his own perception on what he thinks can possible to make happen on the future. Predictions can be right or wrong on a specified time but that will not take too long for there are lots of external contributing factors that can affect for that prediction to make happen or not. Better believe on what you see and what is present rather than focusing on the future. The important thing as of now is what is right in front of us. If it will come, it will so better wait rather than predicting on something that is still far to happen. We all do have different perspective on a matter so we will have different interpretations and predictions on what can possibly happen.

0-0.1% right just for me.

Either to believe them or not but seriously, these predictions are just wild guesses from certain individuals who think themselves the owner of crypto's future. But somehow, it is to realize that they are not and all of their predictions are wrong (you've got lucky if you are right).

Anyway, we are happy doing this such prediction, we live that way from the start and it is up to us to believe it or not since everyone has different insights on the market future.

Predictions are just only predicting the market, they don't even know if they will give an accurate result or not. There are too many speculations and we are entitled to make a new one whatever we want. So I don't believe this market stock prediction either is technical or even fundamental analysis.

Instead of having these predictions, just always listen to the news and trend, because nowadays, the movement of bitcoin sometimes will rely on the social media news and update that could affect to the investor's decision.

You can only speculate when predicting which way the market is going to go. Prediction signals are as good as guesses.

As an individual feeding in data to make your own predictions is acceptable but I do not think its worth acquiring market predictions from others or provide it to t
others. In my view that can be very dangerous as I always assume that everyone has their own agenda - which most of the time they often do.

The fake Twitter accounts are used for scams by sharing the wrong market analyses due to making money after dumping over the new traders. If you have your own analysis and want a confirmation from the other traders, use more professional social trading platforms in order to get an up to date info. Otherwise, the rest of the predictions are random and have no fundamental or technical background.

The issue here is what's is the benefits of believing those speculation (that's what they're and not prediction per se). They're only speculating on price that's profitable to them or believed bitcoin will cross in the time frame they're speculating on. You'll do yourself more good if you just act on this speculation as bullish news and keep doing what you're doing with your own strategy, don't act on these speculation as fact or you'll end up making wrong decision.

With the speculation that bitcoin was to be trading above $1million by the end of the year, without much thought you should have known that's just impossible to within that's short timeframe. But don't throwaway the fact that bitcoin would be trading in that price someday.

I don't rely on others speculation to trade but I put them in mind since the community usually react to such prediction. Like currently it's been predicted we'll end the year above $20k and you can see the market constantly attempting to break that price.

Never believe other people's predictions, because these predictions are not necessarily accurate. Better to do the analysis yourself,
so you have a more convincing answer. I suggest that if you do not have trading knowledge and experience, just keep your Bitcoin / altcoins.
But if you have the knowledge and experience for trading, please trade with a small capital first.

you dont need to be a pro trader or involved in trading to know if most of the  predictions that you saw online or on this forum came true or not but all you need is observation .
you said your invoved on here before and that would be impossible if you havent check the price of the coins because your also earning a crypto on campaigns before .

 if majority have agreed on that certain prediction i will believe on that because that can mostly came true but a few oppose prediction can also came true but rarely .

Predictions are always a 50-50 thing. They are "predicting something in the future". It is not a confirmatory statement as to what is going to happen but a conclusion, sometimes based on observing patterns and prior records.

Now this is something that is a bit of a gimmick - we have people who tend to "sell" prediction picks to others. Now whether these are mathematically sound or researched is beyond my scope of study. But do they make money off it? Yes but that money comes from the buyers of the predictions, not by using those predictions on the market - you get what I am trying to mean here? Its a scam.

Traders who are lazy enough to not so some simple FA (leave out TA for the sake or argument) - even they are not willing to work and draw own conclusions as to what coins to buy and what not to and when to buy/sell. It cant be helped like this though and these scammers will keep on doing their shady stuff.

I have never trusted market prediction, because I have never seen any of them being right. And under "being right" I mean 1 person or a company makes 1 prediction, that something will be on exact date or after 1 exact period of time.

What we usually see. A person during the year predict, that by the end of 2020, Bitcoin price will be $50k or $100k, or $200, or $20k and many other prices. Yes, he guess that it will be close to $20k, but besides this, he gave tons of guesses.

Or these so called people who can predict, gave a description why the price was like that in the past, based on more past event. That is why they gave 1000 predictions what will be the price... Even weather forecasts guesses come true more often than market predictions.

All you can do is to believe in the prediction although it's a fact that the prediction doesn't have any assurance that's why we are trying to predict it. As for me I am not an expert trader and of course I was just using the basic signs up until now I think my prediction rate is still less than 50%

 8)

BUT, there are some traders who actually do take profit from more active trading. The top 10% of traders, not the plebs like us, the bottom 90%.

We can only buy the dip, and HODL, plus dollar-cost-average down, and NEVER give the traders/banksters/frauds/scammers what they want.  Our Bitcoin.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EpSS8s8XYAARMEa?format=jpg&name=large

It's easy to give any kind of prediction, but it's always important to know how much reality matches with that prediction. I have seen many so called experts who give predictions like what they think, but they themselves do not know how much basis that prediction has. So they don't specify how long it will take to achieve the target if they give a prediction.

I believe in the prediction that the price of Bitcoin and Altcoins will skyrocket in December 2021, but this prediction is not 100% accurate.
Because as we all know in the cryptocurrency world there are always surprises, so in my opinion it depends on each person whether to
believe it or not. What is certain is that if you believe you must dare to take risks, and because I believe in these predictions I am ready
for all the risks that will occur. I will hold Bitcoin and some altcoins that I consider potential until the end of 2021.

Ofcourse i believe in crypto currency tokens market predictions; but most importantly, i believe that predictions are limited and therefore cannot be 100% reliable. As traders, we need to understand that charts, prediction or analysis will not pay out correctly most times. So do your own research and be quick with your decision making.  Also remember, that bitcoin has defied predictions and went to 23000$ in 24 hours.

I only use those prediction as basis of my research ,they might be considerable or disposable depend on how i look about the claims, But surely i don't believe instantly until i make my own digging about the said currencies.

make the situation now be an example, from months ago there are so many speculations and predictions mostly Positive thoughts about the Bitcoin price, if you just take and believe then surely you are in Great growth now but since you wanted to make more assurance then you waited for couple of weeks or time ,But still the outcome is the same, and that is safe investment but gaining.

I believe in predictions but they are not investment advised due to the market volatility and it can change trend without any cause behind it.

Prediction have 35% chance to come to pass and i usually use it as a hint not for trading decision. However, the stock market predictions are done by the analysis through the use of autamoted instrument not historical data or market momentum.

Predictions are like a-holes everyone has one. That was for something else obviously (opinions) and not for a good reason neither. At the end of the day if you are not sure about what you want to do, trying to check others predictions will not be helpful towards you.

I am not saying just do whatever comes to your mind and never listen to anyone, but try to find predictions that has a reasonable data that backs it up, not just "bitcoin will be $50k!!" because those people are idiots, not that they can't be right, even a broken clock shows time right twice a day, but they are still idiots nonetheless. So long story short just focus on the reasoning, if someone gives you 2 pages of reasons why bitcoin will be x price, then that could be worth a look, not guaranteed but at least it has a reason and a logic.