Bitcoin Forum

We share here whatever information we find relevant, so we can compare what is different this time.

I would like to post images and stuff but I can't, don't have that damn +1 merit.

Hope we can create a decent thread regarding the key differences between the previous cycle and the new one.

IMO this can't be compared. This is what I called being result-oriented only.

The whole crypto industry is more stable now. In 2017, if you see a total daily volume of 20B you would be - wow, that's enormous! Now when I see 100B daily volume - meh, what a weak day...

Another big difference, the bull run was cause by CME and CBoE future contracts then FOMO sets in, lots of irrational buyers, now it is because of companies and billionaires hedging their assets and wealth against BTC.

Also, for me this is not 2017 bull run, this is just the tip or the start, probably more of 2016. So there's a lot to be offered in 2021 that it can dwarf 2017's bull run. $100 billion daily volume will be just the norm as we are going to see a super rally next year.

Long term price is so predictable that is sort of comical. Sometimes it looks to me like it is programmed in advance and it just rolls out when is right time. Right now price is a tiny bit to high. I guess eventual ATH will be earlier than end of the year.  But we might still get a correction below 20k to set timings more correct again.

So far things have been pretty much similar and you must not compare small time frames but the bigger one meaning the time starting from previous ATH to the current time. It starts from 2015 when price was $300 and stable and a sudden dump came to take away half that price and end up at $150. Fast forward to 2018 when price is stable at $6000 and stable and a sudden dump comes to take away half that price and end up at $3000!

Now you can follow that trend from this starting point to the current price which is January 2017 when the ATH of that time was broken and you can see that the trend so far has been very similar (2015 to Jan 2017 with Jan 2018 to Jan 2021)

2017 = bull run made up of Tether minting + tons of ICOs having hundreds of millions of sales. And by this year, we haven't seen it go through a bottom.

2020 = went through a bottom, the bearish trend on March. No more tons of ICOs but there's this defi but it's not that hyped as the ICOs before. For the minting, Tether still printed money. More institutional backups and real investors, no longer built on hype.

2021 = it's first heard that we might see this as the longest bull run in the history and could run up to 2021. But with this comparison, some would expect that a strong bearish trend would come by this year.

You get to see the stock to flow model and many are holding onto it.

The difference between 2017 and 2020 is the kind of investors who, with increasing demand, enter the crypto space and drive prices up. In 2017, retail investors such as your aunt or neighbor, who had zero ideas about bitcoin and blockchain technology, but felt they were the next warren buffet, were driving the price increase.

Indirect and directly, the current bull run is led by institutional players who know what they are investing in. Shortly before the current boom, in the current financial recession, several firms such as square or MicroStrategy made headlines in the news for investing several hundred million dollars in bitcoin as a hedge against inflation.

Difference is that in 2017 most of people who bought bitcoin don't even had an idea what owning bitcoin means and most of them are just somehow overhyped and follow the trend of multiplying money using an ICO until the market can't sustain anymore and it flops. Right now instead the market got money flows in by those big investors and large corporation which might means that our market have stronger foundation.

We really can compared it due to some certain situation occur but actually the result might different right now since compare before we are bombarded by ICO's and fake hypes thats why we see a short bull run happened at that year. But things are different since big institutions are entering the scene so I think its a strong hold for bitcoin to have a stable growth in year 2021.

Hindsight is 20 20 works perfectly for the year 2020 :D In hindsight if you look at 2017 and if you look at today you can find a lot of similar stuff and different stuff, but while living in it, it is hard to predict whats going to happen.

I am a long term investor so while I had bitcoins during 2017 peak and 2020 peak, I also had money during 2018 fall as well, I had bitcoin at the lowest of lows prices and I had bitcoin at highest of highs, today some people sold and maybe made tens of thousands of profit, I do not sell, maybe it will drop in few months and I will be in loss again, or at least look like I could have profited more, so long term has that disadvantage, but I know while people complain about being late, I am never late because I am in every price, from low 4 digits to high 5 digits I will always be here and that is what you should aim too.

The future contracts and the hope for bitcoin ETF approval driven the price in fomo and panic sell make bitcoin so volatile.
Traditional payment and financial services that connect with merchants adopt bitcoin as one of the payment methods is one of the game-changer this year aside from institutional investors. assume that adoption is one of the keys to the health market growth and less volatile market rather than just being a speculative asset.

The biggest difference between these two periods is that in 2017 we started with under 1k price but ended with nearly at 20k price, that is the proof that it went up crazy high, nearly as much as x30 in just one year. Whereas in 2020 we have moved from 7k to 23k levels, nearly a x3 increase instead, so 10 times lower amount of increase happened this year.

It shows you that bitcoin didn't do something marginal this year like it did back in those days. I was worried during 2017 because we increased more than we could handle, and people were hyped beyond measure, they never saw an increase like that and they all jumped into crypto. Whereas I believe in 2020 people are also aware of the problems we could face as well, which is why I think it is not really a big deal and we probably have a big fall like we did in 2018. Those are the biggest differences.

You might wanna read first post again, as OP didn't compare 2017 and 2020, he is trying to find some similarities between 2017 and 2021 which are more appropriate years to be compared.

It is true that this bull run is different from the previous one and growth looks healthier and more "organic", but there are some similarities between 2016 and 2020, years that should be compared. In both of those years bitcoin halvening happened, and approximately 6 months later bitcoin started pumping, followed by sharp correction. As you can see, once again we see bitcoin pumping, again approximately 6 months after halvening. Since all these things are playing out like in 2016, that makes people think that 2021 will mimic 2017 so you have all those 100k-300k predictions, but whether will history repeat itself we are yet to see.

What we know though is that future is bright and it's been easier than ever to be a hodler.

Things are easier if we have charts to compare so here you go with charts for daily price and volume in 3 years: 2016, 2017 and 2020.

• It seems price movements in 2020 is faster (move ahead of time) than in 2016. In 2016, the crash happens in August but in 2020, it happens in March. The common reaction is after the crash as final weak-down, price intensively moves upward.
• Chart for 2020 volume looks more similar to 2016 volume, not 2017 volume.
• I used multipliers (for price and volume in 2016) to make charts more visually comparable

We are very close to correct price. 19.5 to 20.5 would match the numbers of 2019 that were around 10k.

I come up with 26k-30k as tipping point.

bur the longer we go siderways in the 21-24k track that range of 26k-30k loses its importance.

I have tv on listening to my favorite lesbian Rachael Maddow as I am typing this I just heard a graystone commerical saying “fuck gold” go digital get some graystone.

They sank big money into btc.
Norway gave every citizen some btc.

Just keep adding this stuff and maybe stupid numbers happen. Soon.

But I see the first case happening fast jump to 26k-30k and tank. rather by wrong.

As in, the market will just cut right through it without resistance?

I'd say anything above the 2017 ATH is no man's land. I'm not even trying to predict where a major top might be. I'm just going to react when I see it, and catch the knife once the market is down at predictably safe levels. The higher we go, the more I'd start aiming for a larger (~40%) correction. If the ceiling is near $25K then $14-15K is still possible.

Then how do you explain the drop in 2018 while the amount of Tether printed in 2018 was a lot higher than 2017?

Majority of ICOs accepted only ETH as a way to invest in their scam not bitcoin. Additionally, people who invest in shitcoins including ICO tokens are already familiar with bitcoin and ICO scams didn't bring "new investors" that could in any way add to bitcoin price.

^ In mine, 2017 and today’s bull run will never be the same. 2017’s bull run was sort of “I’ll prove you wrong”. And today’s bull is “look at me, I can still do it”.  So, I am expecting this year’s bull run to increase more and be more consistent considering the circumstances around the world.
I had like to specially mention the coronavirus that not compared to 2017’s, this year there is a pandemic that would cost a high chance of recession so bitcoin will be at it’s weakest.

I say 2020 and 2017 can be compared, and can be compared a lot, no idea why you would put in 2021 as your title because we are not in 2021 yet and we have no idea if it will be a bull run or not. Which is why I believe we should focus on 2020 instead of 2021 since we have zero data about 2021 for now. However if we were to compare 2020 and 2017, I can say that the difference is clear: the whales.

Right now in 2020 we have too many companies getting into bitcoin in hundreds of millions of dollars at a time, which means they are making a lot of money while also keeping up the price higher thanks to their purchases as well. So not only they invest, but they make profit while investing because they invest, so they keep investing the more money they make and the more they invest the more money they make in return, it is an awesome cycle for them honestly.

The bull circle for this year is having the same kind like in 2017. I think the difference is the doubt that came because of covid-19.and with that bitcoin still went up to a new ATH. Because of the covid-19, it was a slow move until now around november and an extension to December that it had major increase. But the 2017 was an early run with clear direction of bull that got more people trapped when the bear started.

No you are wrong on finding out the possible reason on why we had increased up soo much! This doesnt particularly talks about covid-19. Just to think on how it would be affecting on positive side towards the market?
Why wouldnt consider on that Paypal adoption instead? We are indeed having the same movement back in 2017 but this isnt something to be the same on adoption rate or level.Observing the price on how it
behaves when it comes to price corrections and recovery.? This isnt the same wayback where correction did really result into a heavy crash which did really create big panic on the entire market.
On this point we are seeing different one but doesnt mean that it wont crash, there's always a tendency for it to happen.