Bitcoin Forum

Glassnode’s detailed in-depth analyses  of BTC’s metrics are interesting, and it was fascinating to see their report 4 days ago that the number of BTC addresses holding $1M USD had gone ‘parabolic’ in Dec with a 150% increase to 66,500  https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/1339476314118643714?s=12 (https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/1339476314118643714?s=12)  Also very interesting was CoinTelegraph’s recent report on Glassnodes CTO Rafael Schultze-Kraft saying ‘all’ of BTC’s major market indicators and metrics compared to their 2017 levels and then applying their subsequent increases in the 2017 bull run were “insanely bullish”, with all but one suggesting BTC’s price would rise well north of $200K this market cycle in the bull run that has started  https://www.google.com/amp/s/cointelegraph.com/news/insanely-bullish-glassnode-cto-predicts-btc-price-will-10x-from-here/amp (https://www.google.com/amp/s/cointelegraph.com/news/insanely-bullish-glassnode-cto-predicts-btc-price-will-10x-from-here/amp) !!

Many crypto and traditional financial experts are now giving similar bullish predictions as they see BTC replacing gold to a greater or lesser extent as a good investment option and a store of value and hedge against inflation with more and more public companies and rich individuals buying BTC in big amounts - Plan B’s stock to flow model predicts a price of 100-200K in 2021, Raoul Paul ex of Goldman Sachs predicts 200K in 2021; Willie Woo predicts 200-300K, Mike McGlone of Bloomberg predicts 200K, Tom Fitzpatrick of Citibank predicts 300K, Ficas Ag Swiss predicts 200-300K, Max Keiser predicts 100K, Pomp predicts 100-200K, Adam Back predicts 300K by 2025 etc.

Very bullish predictions, and I think 100K is likely in 2021 and maybe 200K is possible as more and more money chases scarcer and scarcer BTCs - but volatility will also persist I’m sure in 2021 with periods of optimism and pessimism, and funny BTC has just fallen $2K in the last 3 hrs as I wrote this bullish thread. So who thinks BTC will hit 100K in 2021, and do you agree with the Glassnode analyst and other experts it will hit 200K - and who’s brave enough to agree with the Bloomberg analyst and Willie Woo that it can hit 300K for a 14x and 1,400% increase in price in 2021?

And if BTC’s price does hit 200K+ we might well find Glassnodes data showing us one day in 2021 that there a million BTC millionaire addresses (66,500 x 15) - mind-blowing!  

I think this Bitcoin price prediction for 2021 ($ 100,000 or $ 200,000) is very optimistic.  

Why is the price of bitcoin rising?  The US dollar is losing its role as the world's reserve currency. China and other countries create a new currency (Central Bank currency, i.e. CBDC).  Uncertainty in the world leads to panic attacks (Covid-19).  At the same time, we are witnessing the collapse of globalism, the cancellation of flights between different countries, the isolation of people, the rejection of the real world in favor of the virtual world.

We live in a period of transformation of the global financial system.  Bitcoin price is rising (blockchain is not susceptible to panic attacks).

My Bitcoin price prediction in 2021 is from $ 30,000 to $ 45,000.

This post of mine from 10 months ago is aging well! $67K I’m the bag, and my prediction is for a BTC peak price this market cycle of ~$150K late Dec before a bear cycle starts 1st Quarter 2022 - which would be exactly midway between my $100-200K prediction 10 months ago if it comes to bear … or bull would be more appropriate lol!

Exactly, I think we are still on track to hitting at least the conservative estimates of $100k this 2021. We have been bitcoin hitting 2x ATH this year and it will continue to break barriers in the next coming 2 months.

Let's just enjoy the bull run for now, no talk of bearish cycle, Lol. Let's see how far this bullish market can go, maybe the $100k-$200k prediction might be hit in early 2022 so we might delay the bear market for the meantime.

It is not wise to draw conclusions based only on the part of the tweet you have read, because the second part explains why the number of such addresses has increased. If an address is presumed to be lost, the amount on it is important only in the context that because of that, all those coins in circulation may one day be worth more.

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The market became optimistic with the approval of the first BTC ETF in the US, but that optimism quickly melted away when people realized it was a futures-based ETF. Although I keep reading that crypto exchanges have liquidity problems (the biggest since 2018), and that no one wants to sell even when we reach the new ATH, I wonder why then the price is falling instead of rising?

I'm not a pessimist, but I'm also wondering what could be the trigger for the price to reach $100k by the end of the year, because the market does not depend on magic and good fairies, but on good news and a lot of money to flow in the BTC direction.

Many of the well respected analysts including Willy Woo, Plan B & Will Clemente think we are going to over $100,000 per bitcoin before New Year.

I see nothing to suggest we won’t, we’re currently following previous bull cycles & Q4 is usually the real rocket launch. Let’s see what happens but the last few months of this year could be very explosive to the upside.

Yeah, many experts has predicted about reaching price levels between $100k to $400k by end of this year. Also, some people are expecting bitcoin to continue its bull run even in 2022 which means I guess around $400 levels also possible.

As of now, bitcoin is not insanely bullish unlike how it was trading by the times of earlier this year but now it is moving up slow and steady. Usually all slow and steady movements will turn as too faster over the time hence we could expect the same to be happening when FOMO will come into action.

End of bullish trend may happen along with this year end but when considering El Salvador and bitcoin ETF news, then I guess we may have bullish trend till 2nd quarter of 2022 too; we cannot speculate exactly hence we need to be more careful if we plan to book profits at peak.

There was definitely a case of "Buy the rumour, sell the news". There are a few more
ETF's being decided on very shortly also but yea the important one is that "spot" ETF
where the fund is not settled with FIAT.

TBH we here were wondering why the shortage in supply didnt correlate into positive
price moves particularly in August and September.

I think that will play out more in this last Q.

I do not believe that we have anything that specific to celebrate right now. Sure it is looking good but we have reached only 3k more than the previous ATH, which we dropped lower already. We are not at 100k, we are not anything above, we haven't even reached 70k let alone anything else.

This is why I believe that we should not be excited about the prospect of a 100k right away. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that it will not happen, but writing a post when the price broke over the previous ATH and then reached a new ATH is good enough, you do not have to be right about the exact number. Let it be awesome for now with the way it is, and you should be proud of it already.

For this cycle to look anything like 2017's, it would need to extend gains beyond $100k -- but the good news is that most people, myself included, agree it's a matter of time (and that, measured in months).

If it were to go insane though, and hit anywhere near $200k, I feel like this rally would need to crossover well into mid-2022 territory. At which point, this really won't look anything like 2017.

End of the understood cycle?

Throughout 2021 until the 50% correction I had estimated $100-150K as the top after a parabolic move, probably from $50-60K and doubling quickly to a blow off top. Now I consider this to be a conservative prediction based on stock to flow minimum price target ($100K) as well as log growth ($150K). Now the cycle pattern is mirroring 2012 given the size of the drop that considerably exceeded +-50%.

Overall, it gives the opportunity for the price to go a lot higher than originally expected. 6 month consolation has starved much of the supply and redistributed it to the type of whales who have no interest in selling their positions unless there is a blow off top. Ie, unless price goes parabolic, they will continue holding, hence they didn't sell at $50-60K recently, and won't unless the parabolic move occurs.

My new moonshot target therefore becomes $200-300K, which prior to the -50% drop felt completely unrealistic, but now it seems much more likely.

Right now we need to see how Bitcoin will behave when it touches the previous ATH of $65K. Currently there are many longs in that area that are trapped. If we engulf 65K then I would be very surprised if we don’t break ATH again.

However if we fail to close $65K then we can retest the $60K low that formed on the weekend and if we breach it then support is at $50K. However lots of positive news came out today so it’s looking good however on the first sign of weakness I will be looking to hedge.

So you're 47k+ from the price at that moment with 93k to go, with 9 months gone and only 3 left.
If things continue like this you overestimated the growth by 250%, which can't be really called accurate!   :D


This is the problem with the model of growth percentage-wise.
A lot of poeple say that since we've grown last time by x3  from the previous ATH we can do it again, which is easy, just 2x, compared to the 600x from April 2013. But when it comes to the money needed for that growth, you will need poeple to pour in the same amount they have to date from the start to double it in terms of value. If 1 trillion was needed for this 65k then we need close to another trillion in fresh investments to reach 100k.

Of course, we will see growth, that is clear but I think it will slow down a lot.
December 2013 we were at 1000, in 2017 at 20 000, to replicate that we would need 400 000 and I highly doubt this is going to happen.
Right now from 20x, we're down to around 4x, a five-times decrease in growth.

Trying to make sure that crypto will go up and saying that you hit the prediction because it went up is not really something that is incredible. I mean think about it, we are talking about crypto here and that means that we are going to end up with something that is high eventually anyway and there is nothing wrong with that. We all know that crypto will be going up and that is not a prediction.

The problem here is that people do not know when it will go up, not if it will go up. I believe that this cycle will not be 200k for sure, it is going to be something that is much lower than that, probably not even 100k if you ask me, however maybe it will reach the 100k price. If you are going to make a prediction at least make it to a level where you know the date when it will reach a price and then you would basically be doing something that others can't do.

Gold has gone out of the picture since btc took over, so there is nothing surprising if we think that btc will go to $200k or even a million. But 'changes' take time before being applied so to let everyone adjust who is being affected. In regards to btc, it cannot go straight to those values overnight and not even this year so quick, but next year or two will be the right point of time when btc could reach such high values based on varios mass adoption promotions that are now being applied to it.

Anything could happen. But, when most people start being cautious then no one could hold the market. I mean all the investors who had watched bitcoin markets by 2013 and 2017, definitely will look for bearish market from January 2022 which means they may not add new bitcoin to their portfolio. So, when market sentiment turns then understood cycle will persist.

Only whales could take the current bullish trend till mid of next year. They need to trigger FOMO to make individual investors to help them.

I just wonder what are the possibilities for the current bullish rally to end without having an FOMO phase? If that will be possible then we may fail to touch $100k itself with this current rally. When everyone was expecting a bearish trend in January then everyone may remain cautious which again will end the trend of understood cycle.

For me it's sounds like FUD to me dude i think it is very hard for Bitcoin to reach 100,000 usd how much more 200,000 USD?. I don't think so, but everyone has their right to express there opinion but it is up to you if you'll gonna believe them.

This, right now all the evidence is pointing out to a price above 100k, we do not know how high the price will go, after all we may barely surpass that level on hype alone and then we face a huge correction, however the scenario in which that price is surpassed easily is not outside of the real of possibility either, especially if the economies of the world keep showing a very slow recovery which is not in line with the predictions of most economists.

It is just a prediction that the Bitcoin price can reach $100k. But I don't think it is FUD, bro. Some people who predicted it are experts and experienced investors/traders. They have strong reasons to state the price of Bitcoin can reach $100k or above. They learn it from analyzing the chart patterns and they also consider it from some fundamental aspects.

That's not FUD actually its FOMO that encourage more people to buy before its too late.
This is just indeed a prediction only and its up to us if we are going to buy or not but if we are talking about Bitcoin here, I have more confidence to hold this than to any altcoins because I know, Bitcoin will also grow and we are still not in the mass adoption so imagine the future price if many people started to use Bitcoin.

Adoption isnt still in full scale yet thats why the provision of such certain extent of prices is still wide which we can presume that these numbers could be possibly reached if lots had already bee adopted int but thats not simple as it sounds.There might be some countries had legalized bitcoin but most of them are still on neutral phase and several had already banned it.

200k is is attainable if you do ask me which is way more better than to those people who had been crying out for million a coin
which is already too unrealistic.

Probably attainable, the question is how likely it is. You never know with Bitcoin, and it looks like the best is yet to come this year but $200k I see as too bullish. Maybe if the bull run stretches well into 2022, as some predictions point to, we will hit that figure, but if we peak in December I doubt it will be as high as $200k.

That's something I've been thinking of. Anyone new to the space reads or is told that Bitcoin comes and goes in cycles, extreme and spending little time near the peak. So they see 2021 as the peak. But as I said, this looks like anything but the 2013 and 2017 cycles -- if they're paying attention. Fundamentals have never been so strong, network elements never been so stable, individual influence never so negligible (hence why it will require concerted whale effort to bring the required momentum for mid-2022 rally extension.

By considering the number of days left in this year, I agree with your doubt. I guess first we need to reach $100k levels before speculating about $200 levels, it is not just too early to think about $200k levels but as of now it is seeming like not meaningful when we are struggling to get into $70k levels itself. Today we have another correction right now which took back bitcoin prices toward $58.5k levels.

I am not ready to call the current trend as "insanely bullish". It is bullish but lagging with powers which is the reason it keeps failing to attract new investors on board hence we are having time to time small corrections.

I suspect by this time next week it will be clear which way the Bitcoin market is going to send the price in the final 2 months of the year.  Halloween has proven to be a pretty bullish time during the last 2 cycles.  I don't see any reason why we won't see a repeat of that very soon.  This latest correction to try and take out excess liquidity before the run was badly needed and I think we might be loaded up and ready to go.  The next couple of days will likely see some consolidation, but the market is starting to feel like a coiled spring, and that's exactly what we want.

It’s hard to say which way we will go. On one hand it’s good that we broke ATH however the break was very weak. Usually when we break ATH we surge 20% in a day or so. Clearly this isn’t the case right now.

We also are almost down $10K from the highs and the bounces are week. I think we might go all the way down to $53k which is the pivot that we made last month. That has a better chance of holding and we might retest ATH again and if we don’t break it then, it’s most likely the top for a while.

Yes, maybe a false break-out or maybe some whales trying to manipulate the price from behind to bring a flash crash.


It's just about 2 days before the end of the month, maybe we will continue to trade sideways along the lines of $60k-$62k. Not that bad end of the month, but it could have been better if we are going to close with green candles.

I still stand behind my initial speculation of $400k+ based on previous cycles considering that the cycles are 4 years long an the first 3 years of this cycle was the exact copy of the previous one with the 4th year being pretty similar but with a longer correction phase after each ATH was reached.

Right now with the Taproot upgrade coming and the price already on the rise with the new ATH set a couple of days ago, everything is looking good for surpassing $100k. Although I still think that the new bubble at $400k+ is going to take place next year most probably in first quarter.

I think the Taproot will be the catalyst next month for that $100k that everyone is expecting to see. So if everything repeats itself like 2017, then maybe around March-May we might see the bubble being burst for this cycle and it's going to be hard for those who haven't seen the bubble in 2017 and they might be in another rude awaking just like the majority of us here we are a total noob (including me), in 2018 and thinking that the price could still go on parabolic to $50k that time.

I second your speculation of $400k as I foresee the possibilities. The probable difference of ongoing bull run from previous ones must be longer duration as bulls got more supporters now than ever before. It means bears might need to wait more to get into action (time to time corrections are negligible and I am just referring the bulls which are capable of getting us new ATH).

Even current market is not roaring like "insanely bullish" bears are seeming powerless to beat bulls. Most people are expecting $100 in next 2 months but they may get trapped to regret when market will storm to $200 in very short period of time and then doubling from $200k may happen in first and second quarter of 2022.

All indicators and analyzes indicate that this bullish role for Bitcoin will be excitingly crazy, but I will not go into excessive optimism and do not expect the price of Bitcoin to reach 200K$ before the end of this year!!! Yes I expect that it is very possible to hack 100K$ before the end of the year but not more than that because this sounds crazy!!! But anyway, I'm sure we'll see 200K$ in 2022.
But what I’m also curious about is if this bullish bitcoin scenario materializes what will be the case for altcoin, we have seen how major altcoins such as ETH, BNB, ADA, TRX, XRP and others made significant historical peaks at the previous bitcoin high, so it will be very interesting to know the peaks What can altcoin reach in conjunction with the bitcoin peak?

It is not as easy to do that anymore as the price of bitcoin now is really high and not a lot of time has passed between the current all time high and the previous all time high, so there was not as much excitement compared to what we saw when finally bitcoin was able to break its all time high of 20k, still I think 6 figures will to be reached during this year and it will be interesting to know if we barely touch that level or if we leave it behind by a large margin.

Reaching 200k in price isnt a 2-3 years old kind of talk and would rather even be more longer if the market tends to be that tough when it
comes on breaking those resistances.It wont really be that simple for sure but talking about potential then we can really tell that it could really happen basing on the achievements and milestones on where bitcoin did able to reach out.As a crypto enthusiast then it would be much more better if you do know on how to utilize price movements in a short span of time and take profits rather than
stressing yourself going for long term.

The first time we hit $65k to register our all time high I really thought the momentum was there to go over $100k not until the east absorbed most of these gains by banning most crypto activities like bitcoin mining which sent shivers in the crypto ecosystem but now we back where we left from after a couple of months and the current predictions aren't far fetched. With one or two market players getting on board markets will really rally upwards quite fast but not this cycle unfortunately.

So much unrealistic since imagine this bitcoin struggle to reach $70k how much more if we talk about that $200k figure, And for those people who keep predicting about that maybe they show make things slower in terms of hoping to much since they will miss those golden opportunity what bitcoin can offer now. It will be more ideal to predict the $100k dollar first on when this events will happen before we talk about larget than that.

We are not really having "struggle" to reach $70k, we are just not going there yet and that's it.
I believe that we are doing fine, I mean expecting bitcoin to keep doing something amazing every single day is not something that I could support all that much, it is something that people should not be focusing on all the time.

Certainly yes, it went up, but we went from 30k price to 60k+ price already, why require 70k as well? So, people seems keep speculating and also expecting market to obey such all speculations. Let's wait and watch what will happen by year end.

That's not a struggle, it is just a point where we did not cross yet and that's it, not something we can't cross or try and fail, we are just happy with what we have and that is why we are not trying hard enough. Believe me when the time comes we are going to reach to 200k as well, just like how we broke over 50k so easily recently and once before during spring, 100k will be broken just like that, and 200k will be too. All we need is to wait for sellers to leave, each time we go up there are more people willing to take their profit and leave, after that buyers will manage to get it higher.

Dont be too optimistic , prepare for the plan b as nobody knows that those huge balance on the fund manager company could bored and withdraw it anytime or playing with the market altogether along with other whale that triggered . moreover we are facing christmas & new year in the next couple of weeks .. people often spend it for a temporary leisure or for some luxury shit.

prepare for some real hard correction like we used to , im bullish with you guys but for the current time , it must be a huge correction in the upcoming weeks for sure.

I'm also bullish but I'm aware that anything can be turned unexpectedly. But whatever happens, I'm enjoying the ride and will be more optimistic if the market goes to the way that we don't like to but has to happen which is the bear market. We haven't seen the peak of this bull run that we've been expecting to reach as high as $100k-$150k. And when it does, then the expectation of the bear market would really come to everyone and there are does that doubts it to happen, the peak of this cycle.

Yeah bear market is inevitable as the same bulls are the core factors to trigger it; profit booking must be the first reason for bearish trend. So, regardless of how much positive we are while bullish trend, we tend to act to exit which is basic human nature to protect the profits. So, how intensively being bullish right now may not be insignificant when people psychologically getting ready to exit; this is the reason round numbers are acting like strongest support or resistance levels.

I read that even long term holders are speculating about bear markets in near future which means they may profit book some 5 to 10% of their holding to maximize the number of bitcoin holding. So, preparing anything like that will benefit ourselves to make use of bearish trend as well.

You know what? I've been thinking about the same scenario, since bitcoin's narrative has change in 2020-2021, why not the cycle that we've used to? Maybe it's no longer a 4 year cycle that will end in 2021 and then early quarter of 2022, the first sign of bearish cycle will appear.

Maybe in mid-2022 the price will be so strong based on so many reasons that the 4 year cycle will be broken and we might see 2 waves of bullish run up to the end of 2022.

I'm sure there must be people already considering this possibility and I'm sure analytics are digging up new trends, but yes, it already looks a very different season and cycle. I remember last November quite well, so it's already a year now we're heading into of strangely lit sentiment. I remember December particularly well, that's when we reacquainted with 20k -- and if conventional cycle wisdom held, we'd already be on our way down now from a parabolic high culminating in a single sheer peak. We've just only left behind a second, higher peak in this run. Anything but a textbook cycle we're in now. All bets are off.

You need to consider the positive news happening all over the world to speculate the possibility of not having an FOMO phase with this ongoing bull run.

1. China is asking public opinion to reopen crypto mining.
2. At least 3 countries has showed interest to declare bitcoin as a legal tender.
3. Bitcoin ETF is about hit the live market.
4. Tesla getting 2 big orders and Musk may invest another billion into bitcoin at any time.
(He is the richest as of now hence we need to watch him out closely).
5. In my local newspaper I am frequently seeing crypto exchange's ads. (In last one month, 2 of my old friends called me to ask what is bitcoin).

So everyone is talking about bitcoins hence we will have FOMO for sure this time as well. Moreover, I am positive on taking bull run into 2022. This way ATH may happen by 2nd quarter of 2022.

It's like folding and expanding and it has to happen because we've been used to the market. We're aware of what's next and which is which. Took some profits already and I'm happy that even it's not the peak, it's already good on my end that I have to do it so that I don't miss taking profits if the wheel doesn't go along with what we want and that's the continuous bull run. But good things comes to an end and with a cycle just like the market for bitcoin.

Personally I think this would be the most impactful news of all.

Yes, Tesla, and ETF and legal tender but those are good news that has already come, and just comes on top of all the first time already.

If China backtracks on their decision, it will be the first time China news is nonFUD and then the rest of the world for sure cannot sit down and allow them to go full Bitcoin. This will change everything.

The statement above about China asking public opinion about unbanning crypto is just a mere speculation by random guy on twitter. The Chinese Government some article about there position crypto mining but it do not that they are asking the public opinion if they will unban it or not. China is committed to reduce carbon emissions in there country and Bitcoin mining is contributing a lot on this so they obviously will not allow it since they can't manipulate it.

You can check this article https://decrypt.co/84386/china-reverse-bitcoin-mining-ban-whats-really-going-on?amp=1 for more info and for clear view on this issue.

This is the way to go about this, I also expect the price of bitcoin to go up at the end of the year and I think it is possible the bull run extends to 2022, however we also need to think about what we should do in the case our prediction is wrong and bitcoin does not do that, many are just long term holders and as such they will just keep holding their coins in the case of a correction, but if you are a trader you need to keep your eyes open as we know that the corrections in the market can happen at an amazing speed and if you do not have a stop loss by the time you realize what is happening then you will sell when the price has decreased by a significant amount.