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Economy => Economics => Topic started by: jaysabi on December 27, 2020, 07:13:39 PM



Title: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: jaysabi on December 27, 2020, 07:13:39 PM
Quote
The Chinese economy is expected to surpass that of the U.S. in 2028 - five years earlier than previously forecast - following fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, according to an analysis released Saturday.

Source:  https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-expected-to-surpass-us-economy-in-2028-analysis/

As stated, this is 5 years earlier than last projected, due to the effects of the pandemic. The US is not going to like being in the number two spot, and even less when India’s economy then surpasses the US after that. The biggest benefit to this massive Asian economies is the sheer number of people. The United States’ best hope of competing is to increase the number of Americans and, and quickly.

The US should be drastically overhauling the skilled worker visa program to greatly increase the number of tech workers brought into the country so that the next tech mega companies are created here, and not in Asia. This is should be viewed as an area of national security. Larger militaries inevitably follow larger economies, and the US can not afford to squander the advantages while they still have them.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: FEELEPIC on December 28, 2020, 03:18:50 AM
Quote
The Chinese economy is expected to surpass that of the U.S. in 2028 - five years earlier than previously forecast - following fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, according to an analysis released Saturday.

Source:  https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-expected-to-surpass-us-economy-in-2028-analysis/

As stated, this is 5 years earlier than last projected, due to the effects of the pandemic. The US is not going to like being in the number two spot, and even less when India’s economy then surpasses the US after that. The biggest benefit to this massive Asian economies is the sheer number of people. The United States’ best hope of competing is to increase the number of Americans and, and quickly.

The US should be drastically overhauling the skilled worker visa program to greatly increase the number of tech workers brought into the country so that the next tech mega companies are created here, and not in Asia. This is should be viewed as an area of national security. Larger militaries inevitably follow larger economies, and the US can not afford to squander the advantages while they still have them.

It isn't a comparison because China controls their entire economy. They can print money out of thin air (you know QE) predatory loans + shadow banking etc.

They can make ANY stock go up or down , because they control their economy. It's all fake.

Though i do think China has a HUGE chance to take over europe / middle east , once they have finished their belt and road initiative.

Laws and regulations are ... non existent at least to an extent. It's like a libertarians dream. (at least somewhat)



Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: fiulpro on December 28, 2020, 03:58:16 AM
Hello
This is really something that might happen in the upcoming years. The developing countries have a lot of potential, literally , these countries might surpass the US economy but this won't happen as fast as 2028. Countries like US, UK, they have achieved their potential and now the only good thing would be, if they can keep it stabilized. Due to coronavirus the economic situation of many countries have changed overnight.
The Japan, Germany , UK they are all outperforming, US is right now in a pinch due to the economic arrest and the pandemic situation right now.
Quote
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 33.4 percent in the third quarter of 2020, as efforts continued to reopen businesses and resume activities that were postponed or restricted due to COVID-19. The change was 0.3 percentage point higher than the “second” estimate released in November

source (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.bea.gov/news/glance&ved=2ahUKEwjBlcT84-_tAhUewAIHHbKrAM8QFjANegQIOhAE&usg=AOvVaw0pXTMk9lMZxoo2cnwL44Dt)
>> I found this on the internet and therefore I do think that the US is recovering better as compared to what we would have thought.
Now US might outperform China too, since they are already on a pedestal.
Dollar is thought to be a bubble , but I do think that the new government might change the situation for good.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: Argoo on December 28, 2020, 07:02:58 AM
That's quite possible. I don't like the fact that the United States can print dollars almost uncontrollably and exchange them for goods all over the world. The Chinese economy is working much more efficiently today, and therefore it is developing much faster. I see that the digital yuan will only strengthen this trend.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: davis196 on December 28, 2020, 07:41:49 AM
Yeah,but the Chinese GDP per capita would still be way lower than the US GDP per capita.
If you ask me,GDP per capita is more important than the total GDP of a country.
China will become the World's number 1 economy for sure,but the majority of the people in China will continue to live in poverty.
It seems to me that the US economy is a giant financial bubble,created by massive amounts of debt and money printing.
The Chinese economy also has price bubbles,caused by debt and government spending,but they are way lower than the US bubble.
Anyway,I'm trying to say that all those bubbles are kinda manipulating and artificially boosting the GDP of both USA and China.



Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: ololajulo on December 28, 2020, 07:59:21 AM
This competition may go on for America-China, but statistics has always shown China leading. The economy already has over 1 billion population to take care as against over 300 million population of America. For the past 4 years that US has relax the funding and involvement in international projects, China has done more. They got more reserve of Cryptocurrency, Gold and even US currency.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: Kocret02 on December 28, 2020, 08:51:54 AM
I agree with this opinion. In terms of business, China is already very advanced and can surpass the US's performance. even China through GDP can approach the US only in the next few years. So I think it will definitely happen for China to be in the top 1 of the world


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: sunsilk on December 28, 2020, 09:22:24 AM
It is happening and will actually be going to happen. Most of the business manufacturers are in China because of cheap labor and materials. And with this pandemic, they're the only one country that didn't much suffer from their entire economy. Thus, their stocks got a rise during the rise of the pandemic and lockdowns. And it was said because of their resiliency as they've fought it.

China stocks surge after state media urges investors to load up (https://www.ft.com/content/6a26f8c0-5538-4605-a64f-dce5a08d0600)
China's stock market rally gets extra push from foreign investors (https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/China-s-stock-market-rally-gets-extra-push-from-foreign-investors)

There were also times that their state media told their people to buy stocks and so it surged.

It was a quick turn when just before the corona virus spread worldwide, the US was leading them. Now, it has turned the favor to theirs.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: el kaka22 on December 28, 2020, 04:00:02 PM
What people do not realize is that this is not the same thing at all. This is the national level, not individual level and that is the biggest problem. Let's say one nation has 100 dollars and 1000 people, that means 0.1 cent for each person, and let's say another nation has 50 dollars but 10 people, that means 5 dollars per person as well. As you can see one nation looks to have more money but when you look at per person it looks like the one with less money has richer people.

Now China is also a dictatorship that murders people and attacks others so it is very much known that everyone hates them except maybe themselves, probably most of them hate the party as well, with USA we hate them too (ask about it in middle east) but we do not have the same type of hate, it is different and we still like the American way and watch their movies and so forth. Long story short, 2028 will change nothing at all, China will never have global power because of how much we hate them.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: masterzino on December 28, 2020, 05:13:38 PM
Quote
The Chinese economy is expected to surpass that of the U.S. in 2028 - five years earlier than previously forecast - following fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, according to an analysis released Saturday.

Source:  https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-expected-to-surpass-us-economy-in-2028-analysis/

As stated, this is 5 years earlier than last projected, due to the effects of the pandemic. The US is not going to like being in the number two spot, and even less when India’s economy then surpasses the US after that. The biggest benefit to this massive Asian economies is the sheer number of people. The United States’ best hope of competing is to increase the number of Americans and, and quickly.

The US should be drastically overhauling the skilled worker visa program to greatly increase the number of tech workers brought into the country so that the next tech mega companies are created here, and not in Asia. This is should be viewed as an area of national security. Larger militaries inevitably follow larger economies, and the US can not afford to squander the advantages while they still have them.

It isn't a comparison because China controls their entire economy. They can print money out of thin air (you know QE) predatory loans + shadow banking etc.

They can make ANY stock go up or down , because they control their economy. It's all fake.

Though i do think China has a HUGE chance to take over europe / middle east , once they have finished their belt and road initiative.

Laws and regulations are ... non existent at least to an extent. It's like a libertarians dream. (at least somewhat)

Yeah, because the Federal Reserve cannot do the same (and not doing it right now) ;D

China is huge and they will surpass the US as a whole, but per capita will be relatively low for another 20-30 years.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: bassbity on December 28, 2020, 06:44:28 PM
Most likely there will always be, China will not remain silent if it has to compete with America. The two countries nudged each other to become number 1. America must remain vigilant of any possible shift in position where the industrial economy is increasingly threatening. heated upheaval. we are presented with a massive economic warfare in the coming year, it's really ironic.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: aesma on December 28, 2020, 11:27:26 PM
Increasing the population of any country a lot is not really a great idea, let alone a country that already pollutes way too much like the US.

It would make much more sense for the US to cultivate alliances, and force China to become less of a rogue states, through these alliances. That's basically Biden's plan, we'll see how that goes. Trump's way obviously didn't work.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: dothebeats on December 28, 2020, 11:45:15 PM
Or the US can just do some debt traps to other small, developing nations as well. ::)

Anyways, China has managed to amass such economic power in such a small time due to their huge product output and throughput. Whatever China makes, the world buys, be it some off-brand items or cheap knock-offs. There will always be a place for China’s ‘goods.’  For the US however, their focus has been on being the ‘police’ of the world, sending their men to fight in battles for naught—not freedom of the country and people under siege. Had US focused more on their supply chain weakness and economic weakness for the last decade, even in the midst of the ravaging pandemic it will manage to survive, but unfortunately that’s not the case at all.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: Sithara007 on December 29, 2020, 02:27:08 AM
That's quite possible. I don't like the fact that the United States can print dollars almost uncontrollably and exchange them for goods all over the world. The Chinese economy is working much more efficiently today, and therefore it is developing much faster. I see that the digital yuan will only strengthen this trend.

US Dollar is the reserve currency of the world and that works to the advantage of the United States. They can take loans from the international donors, at extremely low interest rates. Other countries (including China) doesn't have that advantage. On top of that, the Chinese Yuan has a reputation as one of the most manipulated currencies in the world and very few people would be willing to deal with CNY in international trade.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: magneto on December 29, 2020, 08:44:20 AM
Been coming for a while now as a matter of time.

The world will have to realign to China as the dominant economic force for years to come. Although the US is still superior in terms of defence capabilities, China is catching up fast in that department as well. Whilst I hope that this is not the case, I do fear that geopolitical tensions will continue to rise as they currently are.

Even the likes of Ray Dalio have made predictions that the CNY will replace the USD as the reserve currency - and if that's the case, a lot of investors who see US denominated assets as safe havens will be in for a rude shock.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: bitterguy28 on December 29, 2020, 10:08:34 AM
Well almost every countries in the world wanted either to be like US or to Beat US being the number 1 country in the world.

China is Desperately needed this Claim because they also Claiming many things that originated from their country and also being one of the oldest civilization in the world.

and we cannot deny about how they are Moving towards future ,as the fastest developing country now,Increasing economy and trying to dominate the Asian region .

With Most Government having Loan from them, no wonder this will happen faster than anyone expected.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: konflikkastil on December 29, 2020, 02:29:56 PM
I will say it is very possible for China to take over from the US as the world leading economy even before the time forecasted. When we look at the current situations of things presently, the issue of covid-19. How the US is tackling the covid-19 cases. It has had a negative effects on the US economy. And the Asia giant the Chinese. Seems they were more prepared for the coronavirus case.That left lots of questions on many people's mind. I think the Chinese economy has benefited largely. You can imagine even amidst the lockdown across the world. That made most of the tech companies closed down for months, chinese government and their companies are fully operational. Producing and send the products to other countries. Making them the major distributors. With this and if it continues like that. In no time, they will surely overtake the US economy.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: Darker45 on December 30, 2020, 01:47:26 AM
Or the US can just do some debt traps to other small, developing nations as well. ::)

They've been doing this. Remember Confessions of an Economic Hit Man? The problem with their debt traps is that they come with a lot of conditions and high standards. It is therefore a trap which is too complicated to set up. Whereas the red government of China is showering poor countries with all kinds of graces which are almost without such standards.

Railways, roads, bridges, airports, power plants, water facilities, ports, arms, and so on and so forth are provided by China to developing countries without asking too much, especially in terms of transparency, human rights, press freedom, and so on. This is primarily the reason why China has a lot of minion countries today, resulting to its wider trades, larger market, global influence on international politics, and so on. This is powering China's economy.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: Rodeo02 on December 30, 2020, 07:35:10 PM
With the current situation of China and US I believe China can really surpass US as the strong economy but that one can’t happen easily because for sure US will do everything to remain on top. Let’s see if Biden will become a puppet of China too or just like Trump who are indeed against China, its hard to tell and my only wish is not to have a world war 3 because we can’t afford that.

It will only happen if they want to be in top by force US need to accept  that china has already surpassed them, in terms of growth of economy army and even in new technology .  To had back his power they need to make plan that can make their economy to grow not by claiming it in force declaring war ,more innocent people will be affected when they do that..


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: teosanru on December 30, 2020, 07:41:41 PM
Quote
The Chinese economy is expected to surpass that of the U.S. in 2028 - five years earlier than previously forecast - following fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, according to an analysis released Saturday.

Source:  https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-expected-to-surpass-us-economy-in-2028-analysis/

As stated, this is 5 years earlier than last projected, due to the effects of the pandemic. The US is not going to like being in the number two spot, and even less when India’s economy then surpasses the US after that. The biggest benefit to this massive Asian economies is the sheer number of people. The United States’ best hope of competing is to increase the number of Americans and, and quickly.

The US should be drastically overhauling the skilled worker visa program to greatly increase the number of tech workers brought into the country so that the next tech mega companies are created here, and not in Asia. This is should be viewed as an area of national security. Larger militaries inevitably follow larger economies, and the US can not afford to squander the advantages while they still have them.
I think one thing this unexpected event like Covid-19 has taught is that south things can go from what is planned. But I believe one thing is going to happen post-pandemic is that the metrics of the Economy are going to change drastically.  A mere economic strength really means nothing these days. It's the per capita GDP and HDI which needs to be the real metric of measuring economic development. The Gap between rich and poor in Asian countries is drastic. India being such a superpower still has at least 10th of its population under poverty which is the official metric and I believe this number might go up after the pandemic. I think globally too economists should focus on decreasing the sparsity between rich and poor and not mere industrialization in hands of big guns.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: Findingnemo on December 30, 2020, 08:05:03 PM
Man power with all the infrastructure let the China to become the manufacturer hub of this world but since covid attack every country realized that they shouldn't be dependent on one country for everything they import so which resulted in some of the biggest companies moving their plant to other countries. Probably China may surpass US economy in the next few years but I swear that US is not going to let them to make it is easier.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: AndySt on December 30, 2020, 11:45:59 PM
Man power with all the infrastructure let the China to become the manufacturer hub of this world but since covid attack every country realized that they shouldn't be dependent on one country for everything they import so which resulted in some of the biggest companies moving their plant to other countries. Probably China may surpass US economy in the next few years but I swear that US is not going to let them to make it is easier.
No one claims that the United States will calmly look at how China becomes the number one economy in the world, although it is quite strange when they begin to be surprised and even arrange hysteria about this, that a country with 1.4 billion people can overtake a country with 329 million people. Yet, mathematically, China has four times the population of the United States, and the economic growth rate in recent decades has been several times higher.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: Darker45 on December 31, 2020, 02:08:16 AM
Man power with all the infrastructure let the China to become the manufacturer hub of this world but since covid attack every country realized that they shouldn't be dependent on one country for everything they import so which resulted in some of the biggest companies moving their plant to other countries. Probably China may surpass US economy in the next few years but I swear that US is not going to let them to make it is easier.
No one claims that the United States will calmly look at how China becomes the number one economy in the world, although it is quite strange when they begin to be surprised and even arrange hysteria about this, that a country with 1.4 billion people can overtake a country with 329 million people. Yet, mathematically, China has four times the population of the United States, and the economic growth rate in recent decades has been several times higher.

Because instead of a burden, Chine wisely leveraged its huge population to develop the economy. It may not necessarily be this way. High population may not necessarily be an economic catalyst as it may also be a cause for problems related to food shortage or hunger, but it seems China is in fact gaining from it, at least in the past several decades.

With a huge population which are predominantly impoverished, the country started attracting large manufacturing companies by selling dirt cheap labor. It started somewhere there and the economy followed. However, it seems the economic rise of China whose effects are now trickling down to ordinary citizens is also the reason why China is not as attractive as before in terms of labor cost.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: zanezane on December 31, 2020, 02:35:42 AM
Man power with all the infrastructure let the China to become the manufacturer hub of this world but since covid attack every country realized that they shouldn't be dependent on one country for everything they import so which resulted in some of the biggest companies moving their plant to other countries. Probably China may surpass US economy in the next few years but I swear that US is not going to let them to make it is easier.
That manpower is also the cheapest as far as I know, not to mention the money trap that China puts other small countries in to create a new Silkroad. But, China beating US when it comes to economy is still a dream to be fair, the economy of China is exclusive and most of their wealth is invested in real estate bubble that does not pop because they have exclusive economy.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: Sithara007 on December 31, 2020, 03:47:05 AM
That manpower is also the cheapest as far as I know, not to mention the money trap that China puts other small countries in to create a new Silkroad. But, China beating US when it comes to economy is still a dream to be fair, the economy of China is exclusive and most of their wealth is invested in real estate bubble that does not pop because they have exclusive economy.

That is simply not true. Manpower in China used to be cheap, but that was one or two decades ago. The wages have risen to such a level that they are now 2-3 times higher than the comparable salaries in countries such as India and Indonesia. On top of that, they are now getting strict with environmental and other regulations. Lax regulations attracted a lot of investment earlier.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: zanezane on December 31, 2020, 04:40:09 AM
~
That is simply not true. Manpower in China used to be cheap, but that was one or two decades ago. The wages have risen to such a level that they are now 2-3 times higher than the comparable salaries in countries such as India and Indonesia. On top of that, they are now getting strict with environmental and other regulations. Lax regulations attracted a lot of investment earlier.
That could be the case but you know that anything that China projects towards other countries are not entirely true, yes the wages increase but the working hours are longer. They might not damage the environment that much but they have factories in Inner Mongolia too, they tried to create an apartment complexes that has plants that help absorb particulates in the air but it backfired because the complexes are now a hellscape infested with mosquitos which is a waste of materials. Those regulations are not in favor of foreign investors as far as I know but I do commend how their government does not have a schism.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: Findingnemo on December 31, 2020, 07:28:10 AM
That manpower is also the cheapest as far as I know, not to mention the money trap that China puts other small countries in to create a new Silkroad. But, China beating US when it comes to economy is still a dream to be fair, the economy of China is exclusive and most of their wealth is invested in real estate bubble that does not pop because they have exclusive economy.

That is simply not true. Manpower in China used to be cheap, but that was one or two decades ago. The wages have risen to such a level that they are now 2-3 times higher than the comparable salaries in countries such as India and Indonesia. On top of that, they are now getting strict with environmental and other regulations. Lax regulations attracted a lot of investment earlier.
If you compare the salaries of US citizen with Chinese citizen then you can see huge difference in the minimum wages.Of course US doesn't have huge amount as minimum wage but still they are far like 10 or more times than average pay in those countries you mentioned. What China did is created more employment with very low pay so everyone can work which will help their government to become better in economy as well.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: sana54210 on January 01, 2021, 02:46:52 PM
If you compare the salaries of US citizen with Chinese citizen then you can see huge difference in the minimum wages.Of course US doesn't have huge amount as minimum wage but still they are far like 10 or more times than average pay in those countries you mentioned. What China did is created more employment with very low pay so everyone can work which will help their government to become better in economy as well.
Interesting tidbit about Chinese propaganda, they are everywhere so you should be careful. Chinese do not really pay a lot of money to everyone, but not because they can't afford to, they just gather all the money in CCP and that is the problem.

If you look at the numbers, you can see that minimum wage of China is not that bad at all, obviously not as high as USA but USA is one of the richest nations in the world with quarter of the population china has, even less than that; it means China on paper looks fine, but that is on paper.

If you have seen anyone in china and how they live, you will realize that they are doing a lot worse than what they suppose to on paper, they are not getting paid as the minimum wage, and there are literally slaves in that nation as well. So, you will find a lot of people who will defend it because they are paid to do so by CCP but  the reality is that it is a nation with few rich and many poor and that hasn't changed in the past 100 years.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: Findingnemo on January 01, 2021, 03:28:18 PM
If you compare the salaries of US citizen with Chinese citizen then you can see huge difference in the minimum wages.Of course US doesn't have huge amount as minimum wage but still they are far like 10 or more times than average pay in those countries you mentioned. What China did is created more employment with very low pay so everyone can work which will help their government to become better in economy as well.
Interesting tidbit about Chinese propaganda, they are everywhere so you should be careful. Chinese do not really pay a lot of money to everyone, but not because they can't afford to, they just gather all the money in CCP and that is the problem.

If you look at the numbers, you can see that minimum wage of China is not that bad at all, obviously not as high as USA but USA is one of the richest nations in the world with quarter of the population china has, even less than that; it means China on paper looks fine, but that is on paper.

If you have seen anyone in china and how they live, you will realize that they are doing a lot worse than what they suppose to on paper, they are not getting paid as the minimum wage, and there are literally slaves in that nation as well. So, you will find a lot of people who will defend it because they are paid to do so by CCP but  the reality is that it is a nation with few rich and many poor and that hasn't changed in the past 100 years.
I do have some friends from China who currently migrated to other countries for better life style. I can vouch what you said, most of the people in that country live like a slave but government claims that they were given decent pay to everyone. China is a country which developed in all the sectors but the standard of life for the people in China still remains low.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: create_crypto on January 02, 2021, 11:24:01 AM
Quote
The Chinese economy is expected to surpass that of the U.S. in 2028 - five years earlier than previously forecast - following fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, according to an analysis released Saturday.

Source:  https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-expected-to-surpass-us-economy-in-2028-analysis/

As stated, this is 5 years earlier than last projected, due to the effects of the pandemic. The US is not going to like being in the number two spot, and even less when India’s economy then surpasses the US after that. The biggest benefit to this massive Asian economies is the sheer number of people. The United States’ best hope of competing is to increase the number of Americans and, and quickly.

The US should be drastically overhauling the skilled worker visa program to greatly increase the number of tech workers brought into the country so that the next tech mega companies are created here, and not in Asia. This is should be viewed as an area of national security. Larger militaries inevitably follow larger economies, and the US can not afford to squander the advantages while they still have them.

If we will take a look about GDP by PPP, it is alredy happened 2 years ago, and now Chinese GDP more than 23.5 trillions:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD?locations=CN

Than, US GDP less than Chinese at 18%

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD?locations=CN-US


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: Mauser on January 02, 2021, 12:28:39 PM
In my opinion it's a bit utopic to expect China to be the largest economy in the world in less than 10 years. We shouldn't forget that China is a communist country with no free rights for their population. So at the moment the world is not reacting to it as there are more concerning problems like covid pandemic. In my opinion the pressure against China will pick up in the next years probably hurting Chinese growth rates.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: create_crypto on January 02, 2021, 12:57:54 PM
In my opinion it's a bit utopic to expect China to be the largest economy in the world in less than 10 years. We shouldn't forget that China is a communist country with no free rights for their population. So at the moment the world is not reacting to it as there are more concerning problems like covid pandemic. In my opinion the pressure against China will pick up in the next years probably hurting Chinese growth rates.

By the political system - yes, communists, that mean no elections, just one real party ruling. But by economy - they have a completly capitalists country with protection of rights of ownership, freedom to enterprinership. That is the main difference between traditional communists countries like old-USSR country.

Also we can look for Singapore, country, that also have not democracy very long tome, it is ruled by autocratic regime, and they begin to one of the richest ecomonies of the world.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: YOSHIE on January 02, 2021, 01:26:54 PM
China and the United States they have stiff competition in all fields be it economy, technology, weapons and so on, I'm not saying that will happen in 2028, what is clear is that for now there are thousands of ways that China has done to defeat the US, in fact none of them have been successful yet.

The US has its own way of dealing with the China vs US competition, the bottom line: the US doesn't want to lose in everything it is a superpower, smart and cunning.
Not sure 2028 China can beat the US.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: create_crypto on January 02, 2021, 01:32:25 PM
That manpower is also the cheapest as far as I know, not to mention the money trap that China puts other small countries in to create a new Silkroad. But, China beating US when it comes to economy is still a dream to be fair, the economy of China is exclusive and most of their wealth is invested in real estate bubble that does not pop because they have exclusive economy.

That is simply not true. Manpower in China used to be cheap, but that was one or two decades ago. The wages have risen to such a level that they are now 2-3 times higher than the comparable salaries in countries such as India and Indonesia. On top of that, they are now getting strict with environmental and other regulations. Lax regulations attracted a lot of investment earlier.
If you compare the salaries of US citizen with Chinese citizen then you can see huge difference in the minimum wages.Of course US doesn't have huge amount as minimum wage but still they are far like 10 or more times than average pay in those countries you mentioned. What China did is created more employment with very low pay so everyone can work which will help their government to become better in economy as well.

Last years chinese salaries grown very much. And they are already on 30-40% more than, for example, most of old comunists USSR countries, like Russia or Ukraine. Avarage in China is 14.294 $ (yearly)

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/wages

And we have a median salary in USA - 35.977 $ (yearly)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_income_in_the_United_States#:~:text=The%20Bureau%20of%20Labor%20Statistics,sex%2C%20ethnicity%20and%20educational%20characteristics.

But in China we have also much less prices for living, buildng homes, services, etc. If we include that factor from GDP by PPP, we can see that on the same 1 dollar in USA you have a 1,72 dollars in China money buying power Index.

So we can see that is not big gap in final income and wealth -
14.294 $ * 1,72 = 24.585 $
24.585 $ vs 35.977 $ = US salary more on 46%

If we compare just pure numbers:
14.294 $ vs 35.977 $ = Us salary more just on 151%

And that`s why last 6-8 years most of companies oppening their new factories not in China but in Bangladesh, Vietnam and India. Because Chinese salaries already not little as it was 20 years ago, for example.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: bassbity on January 02, 2021, 01:37:17 PM
In my opinion it's a bit utopic to expect China to be the largest economy in the world in less than 10 years. We shouldn't forget that China is a communist country with no free rights for their population. So at the moment the world is not reacting to it as there are more concerning problems like covid pandemic. In my opinion the pressure against China will pick up in the next years probably hurting Chinese growth rates.

Yes, that's true, but their ruthless communist ideology and intolerance of any politics is completely unacceptable to any democratic country, China has always made plans in the past, and did it in detail to rule over 1/3 of the world. America of course must really strengthen its political and economic system. otherwise the flow of china will be very dangerous.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: create_crypto on January 02, 2021, 01:45:52 PM
This competition may go on for America-China, but statistics has always shown China leading. The economy already has over 1 billion population to take care as against over 300 million population of America. For the past 4 years that US has relax the funding and involvement in international projects, China has done more. They got more reserve of Cryptocurrency, Gold and even US currency.

Totally agree, And we can compare China and US by a lot of indexies.

So China is now world leading country in production:
- Autos and Engines.
- New buildings.
- Production of cement for construction.
- Amount of road surface.
- Amount of highways.
- Length of railways.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: Findingnemo on January 02, 2021, 02:48:09 PM
That manpower is also the cheapest as far as I know, not to mention the money trap that China puts other small countries in to create a new Silkroad. But, China beating US when it comes to economy is still a dream to be fair, the economy of China is exclusive and most of their wealth is invested in real estate bubble that does not pop because they have exclusive economy.

That is simply not true. Manpower in China used to be cheap, but that was one or two decades ago. The wages have risen to such a level that they are now 2-3 times higher than the comparable salaries in countries such as India and Indonesia. On top of that, they are now getting strict with environmental and other regulations. Lax regulations attracted a lot of investment earlier.
If you compare the salaries of US citizen with Chinese citizen then you can see huge difference in the minimum wages.Of course US doesn't have huge amount as minimum wage but still they are far like 10 or more times than average pay in those countries you mentioned. What China did is created more employment with very low pay so everyone can work which will help their government to become better in economy as well.

Last years chinese salaries grown very much. And they are already on 30-40% more than, for example, most of old comunists USSR countries, like Russia or Ukraine. Avarage in China is 14.294 $ (yearly)

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/wages

And we have a median salary in USA - 35.977 $ (yearly)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_income_in_the_United_States#:~:text=The%20Bureau%20of%20Labor%20Statistics,sex%2C%20ethnicity%20and%20educational%20characteristics.

But in China we have also much less prices for living, buildng homes, services, etc. If we include that factor from GDP by PPP, we can see that on the same 1 dollar in USA you have a 1,72 dollars in China money buying power Index.

So we can see that is not big gap in final income and wealth -
14.294 $ * 1,72 = 24.585 $
24.585 $ vs 35.977 $ = US salary more on 46%

If we compare just pure numbers:
14.294 $ vs 35.977 $ = Us salary more just on 151%

And that`s why last 6-8 years most of companies oppening their new factories not in China but in Bangladesh, Vietnam and India. Because Chinese salaries already not little as it was 20 years ago, for example.
Average salary is higher in China but what about the salary of majority of people which is far lower than US as far as I know. Not sure about the exact values wnd calculation of average salary but the ground reality is different from what we can see on the paper.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: kpierce77 on January 02, 2021, 03:03:08 PM
In my opinion it's a bit utopic to expect China to be the largest economy in the world in less than 10 years. We shouldn't forget that China is a communist country with no free rights for their population. So at the moment the world is not reacting to it as there are more concerning problems like covid pandemic. In my opinion the pressure against China will pick up in the next years probably hurting Chinese growth rates.

Yes, that's true, but their ruthless communist ideology and intolerance of any politics is completely unacceptable to any democratic country, China has always made plans in the past, and did it in detail to rule over 1/3 of the world. America of course must really strengthen its political and economic system. otherwise the flow of china will be very dangerous.
China has a goal of combining several Asian countries under China as the center of the world economy. Currently, from a political perspective, they are very strong and on the other hand, the US is being divided. maybe India has some chances if they are able to maximize their technology sector, but still now that China's condition is getting stronger, it's almost difficult to keep up with them in Asia


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: create_crypto on January 02, 2021, 03:09:27 PM
That manpower is also the cheapest as far as I know, not to mention the money trap that China puts other small countries in to create a new Silkroad. But, China beating US when it comes to economy is still a dream to be fair, the economy of China is exclusive and most of their wealth is invested in real estate bubble that does not pop because they have exclusive economy.

That is simply not true. Manpower in China used to be cheap, but that was one or two decades ago. The wages have risen to such a level that they are now 2-3 times higher than the comparable salaries in countries such as India and Indonesia. On top of that, they are now getting strict with environmental and other regulations. Lax regulations attracted a lot of investment earlier.
If you compare the salaries of US citizen with Chinese citizen then you can see huge difference in the minimum wages.Of course US doesn't have huge amount as minimum wage but still they are far like 10 or more times than average pay in those countries you mentioned. What China did is created more employment with very low pay so everyone can work which will help their government to become better in economy as well.

Last years chinese salaries grown very much. And they are already on 30-40% more than, for example, most of old comunists USSR countries, like Russia or Ukraine. Avarage in China is 14.294 $ (yearly)

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/wages

And we have a median salary in USA - 35.977 $ (yearly)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_income_in_the_United_States#:~:text=The%20Bureau%20of%20Labor%20Statistics,sex%2C%20ethnicity%20and%20educational%20characteristics.

But in China we have also much less prices for living, buildng homes, services, etc. If we include that factor from GDP by PPP, we can see that on the same 1 dollar in USA you have a 1,72 dollars in China money buying power Index.

So we can see that is not big gap in final income and wealth -
14.294 $ * 1,72 = 24.585 $
24.585 $ vs 35.977 $ = US salary more on 46%

If we compare just pure numbers:
14.294 $ vs 35.977 $ = Us salary more just on 151%

And that`s why last 6-8 years most of companies oppening their new factories not in China but in Bangladesh, Vietnam and India. Because Chinese salaries already not little as it was 20 years ago, for example.
Average salary is higher in China but what about the salary of majority of people which is far lower than US as far as I know. Not sure about the exact values wnd calculation of average salary but the ground reality is different from what we can see on the paper.
That is true they have that problem with a lot of people (mostly in a countrysides), that living very poor. That`s why Chinese goverment create a lot of programs of "elimination of poverty" like "Zero poverty" promgram.

And they also settled this goal to be achived that year.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-11-23/China-eliminates-absolute-poverty-one-month-before-schedule-VEp8VAJJS0/index.html#:~:text=China%20has%20set%20the%20goal,by%20the%20end%20of%202020.&text=The%20population%20living%20in%20absolute,decreased%20from%20832%20to%2052.

For understanding how many people in the country living poor and how many rich, it is created an Index (Income Equality), that showing how many time top 10% richest people earn more than top 10% poorest people in the country.

For example:
- In US 18,5 times
- In China 21,6 times

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_equality

In China a liitle bit more disequality at 3%. But not huge diffenece with US.

For example disequality in Germany - 6.9. At till three times lower than in US.



Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: MCobian on January 02, 2021, 05:07:41 PM
The year 2028 is still about 7 years away, so anything can happen in 2028. Including the Chinese economy is expected to pass through
the American economy. If you look at China's current economic development which is quite rapid, it is possible that in 7 years China will
be able to dominate the global economy. But we also must not forget that today the USD is the currency that is still trusted by most countries
in the world, as a global currency that can be used for international trade.

While Yuan is still used by residents of China only. So, indirectly, America still plays an important role in the world economy. Both China
and America will continue to fight to become the country with the best economy. We'll see who is better in the next 7 years.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: create_crypto on January 03, 2021, 02:57:16 AM
The year 2028 is still about 7 years away, so anything can happen in 2028. Including the Chinese economy is expected to pass through
the American economy. If you look at China's current economic development which is quite rapid, it is possible that in 7 years China will
be able to dominate the global economy. But we also must not forget that today the USD is the currency that is still trusted by most countries
in the world, as a global currency that can be used for international trade.

While Yuan is still used by residents of China only. So, indirectly, America still plays an important role in the world economy. Both China
and America will continue to fight to become the country with the best economy. We'll see who is better in the next 7 years.

They have testing their own Chinese cryptocurrency - China's National Digital Currency DCEP. They doing it last 2 years, and now started to implement in some regions of country. Also big chinese companies at these regions start to accept it.

https://www.asiacryptotoday.com/china-digital-yuan-dcep/


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: Sithara007 on January 03, 2021, 03:08:17 AM
They have testing their own Chinese cryptocurrency - China's National Digital Currency DCEP. They doing it last 2 years, and now started to implement in some regions of country. Also big chinese companies at these regions start to accept it.

https://www.asiacryptotoday.com/china-digital-yuan-dcep/

How is this centralized Digital Yuan any different than other online fiat payment modes such as PayPal? These central bank issued cryptocurrencies will be competing against other digital versions of fiat, and not with decentralized cryptocurrencies. And noting the fact that the Chinese Yuan is probably one of the most manipulated national currencies in the world, I pity on those who chose to hold it.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: jaysabi on January 03, 2021, 03:55:14 AM
What’s helping the Chinese economy is that they are such a manufacturing powerhouse. Actually MAKING things is transforming the Chinese economy, the same as it did for the US during the 1940s when WWII-related needs forced the US to rapidly and massively increase manufacturing. This carried forward after the war and created a robust middle class which is what built the wealth of the nation. China is undergoing this same process currently. With the US manufacturing less then they would have because of offshoring, I’m concerned about the US economy’s ability to keep up.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: DrBeer on January 03, 2021, 06:37:16 PM
Before and after the new year, I collected a little information on China, and an idea appeared. I'll clarify now.
What and what information?
1. A friend who has lived in China for about 12 years. Works for a large Chinese company
2. An acquaintance who worked in one media belonging to China
3. Information in open sources.
So, a selection of events:
- a flurry of news that "Covid was defeated in China, the disease rate fell, the death rate fell, everything is fine, the epidemic has receded"
- An acquaintance working in the local media was "asked" to finish her work in the media and return to her homeland, after she doubted the "global improvement of the situation" and offered to conduct a journalistic investigation.
- an acquaintance who works in China (he is the TOP manager of the company), asked a question at some event, how so - the epidemic was defeated, and the families of his local acquaintances are greatly thinning, while there are no accepted traditions of farewell to the dead, but the question why he was answered that they are FORBIDDEN, "here they say a crematorium, here's a capsule, they quietly said goodbye, buried it, and that's it," local top managers recommended him not to ask such questions, nor to them or other residents of China, and generally try to forget about what he asked, i.e. to. the consequences can be very negative ...
As a result, I got the idea that China has engaged in information pressure and systemic misinformation of the world community, trying to show that everything is fine in China, that the virus has been defeated. The goal is to prevent the quarantine blocking of China, because this will mean the collapse of the EXPORT-oriented economy, the growth of internal tensions and discontent of 1.2+ billion people with very unpleasant consequences.
And such a blockage can be introduced into, for example, due to a mutation of the virus and the appearance in China of a new strain of the virus, or simply understanding that in China the virus continues to massively infect people ...

What do you think ?


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: ene1980 on January 03, 2021, 10:28:46 PM
How is this centralized Digital Yuan any different than other online fiat payment modes such as PayPal? These central bank issued cryptocurrencies will be competing against other digital versions of fiat, and not with decentralized cryptocurrencies. And noting the fact that the Chinese Yuan is probably one of the most manipulated national currencies in the world, I pity on those who chose to hold it.
There is a major difference between a currency minted by the government and a payment processors like PayPal. The competition is to hold the valuation with other centralized currency and to attract the investors. It is really hard to attract investors even if a government comes out with a digital currency that can be purchased globally.

The forecast is according to the current data and we might see changes if there a radical economic reform from the US government rather than printing out trillions.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: bryant.coleman on January 04, 2021, 07:42:35 AM
A part of the Bitcoin rally was attributed to the weakening US Dollar by some of the mainstream media outlets. They claim that printing trillions of USD worth of banknotes as a part of the stimulus has had a negative impact on the net worth of Dollar. I am not quite sure about it, as I haven't noticed any similar rallies with other assets (such as crude oil and bullion).


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: stompix on January 05, 2021, 09:29:05 AM
If we include that factor from GDP by PPP, we can see that on the same 1 dollar in USA you have a 1,72 dollars in China money buying power Index.

PPP is the way of telling a poor person that him eating bread is the equivalent of a rich man eating cake, and nothing more.
How many satoshis can you buy in the US with the average wage? How many satoshis can you buy in Chian with the average wage?
That's what matters, just because you have a 10000mp2 mansion in Jerome Arizona it doesn't mean you're richer than a guy owning a one-bedroom apartment in Manhattan.

Totally agree, And we can compare China and US by a lot of indexies.
- Amount of road surface.
- Amount of highways.
- Length of railways.

So I guess, the Netherlands, although being the 11th in GDP per capita (real, not that lame PPP)  will never be able to match Congo by those metrics.

How about we compare China and the US by the only one thing that matters to their population?
How many Chinese have fled China for the US and EU and how many Americans and Europeans have done the opposite?   ;D

That is true they have that problem with a lot of people (mostly in a countrysides), that living very poor. That`s why Chinese goverment create a lot of programs of "elimination of poverty" like "Zero poverty" promgram.

How did that last program, the "Great Leap Forward' end? Haven't seen any Chinese official coming with a statement on the results!


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: Smartprofit on January 05, 2021, 12:11:23 PM
Quote
The Chinese economy is expected to surpass that of the U.S. in 2028 - five years earlier than previously forecast - following fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, according to an analysis released Saturday.

Source:  https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-expected-to-surpass-us-economy-in-2028-analysis/

As stated, this is 5 years earlier than last projected, due to the effects of the pandemic. The US is not going to like being in the number two spot, and even less when India’s economy then surpasses the US after that. The biggest benefit to this massive Asian economies is the sheer number of people. The United States’ best hope of competing is to increase the number of Americans and, and quickly.

The US should be drastically overhauling the skilled worker visa program to greatly increase the number of tech workers brought into the country so that the next tech mega companies are created here, and not in Asia. This is should be viewed as an area of national security. Larger militaries inevitably follow larger economies, and the US can not afford to squander the advantages while they still have them.

In my opinion, China's competitive advantage over the United States lies not only in its large population.  

China is a mono-ethnic country.  The official religion is Buddhism. There are few Muslims in China end they are tightly controlled by the central government.  This means that China is not threatened by inter-ethnic and inter-confessional conflicts.  

In the United States in the future, interethnic and interfaith conflicts are possible, since the US population is very heterogeneous.

China is led by the Chinese Communist Party. There is only one political party in China.  

This allows for important decisions and systematic development of the economy in a predetermined direction.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: darewaller on January 05, 2021, 12:23:46 PM
People are forgetting that this has changed because China was on route to making a decent amount of profit with all the work they do from other nations, plus USA was in a horrible situation because of Trump as well. You might be someone who loves Trump, which I am sorry for you, but if you check the stats it is obvious that Trump turned that nation into a horrible economic place, every single stat shows that dude basically tried to bankrupt USA just like he did with all his other business' as well, having hundreds of millions of dollars worth of debt is "normal" to him, so he tried to basically mimic the same thing for USA as well.

Now that Biden is the president (well soon) and now that China is known to break sooooo many international laws with hong kong, muslims in their nation and indian border, we are going to not have any Chinese economy passing American anytime soon, not in 2028, not in 2038.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: darewaller on January 09, 2021, 09:06:28 AM
You are blinded by your political beliefs. Trump was not the best president United States ever had, but the economy did exceptionally well under him. The stock market indices rose by almost 100% in just four years, and the unemployment rate was at all time low. Now they have elected a radical socialist to replace him, and I expect the economy to go downhill as soon as Biden/Kamala takes office.
Okay I do not want to turn this into a political post, because let's face it, there is no way I can write something that will change your opinion suddenly and make you realize that you were wrong, and there is none that you can say that will change mine, so going into a political discussion would be a futile attempt.

However I would like to correct a few factual wrongs here. First of all we have peaked at 34 million unemployment applications, 4 times higher than ever before in history of USA, but let's give that to covid and not trump (which trump didn't do a lockdown so he was guilty of it and didn't use taxes to pay people 2000 checks, so he is guilty of that too, but nevertheless let's just say its allll corona virus causing this even though it didn't in ANY other nation). Another mistake would be thinking Biden is radical left, in fact, he is not even "mild" left, he is a liberal, he is not left.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: jaysabi on January 09, 2021, 08:52:52 PM
Quote
The Chinese economy is expected to surpass that of the U.S. in 2028 - five years earlier than previously forecast - following fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, according to an analysis released Saturday.

Source:  https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-expected-to-surpass-us-economy-in-2028-analysis/

As stated, this is 5 years earlier than last projected, due to the effects of the pandemic. The US is not going to like being in the number two spot, and even less when India’s economy then surpasses the US after that. The biggest benefit to this massive Asian economies is the sheer number of people. The United States’ best hope of competing is to increase the number of Americans and, and quickly.

The US should be drastically overhauling the skilled worker visa program to greatly increase the number of tech workers brought into the country so that the next tech mega companies are created here, and not in Asia. This is should be viewed as an area of national security. Larger militaries inevitably follow larger economies, and the US can not afford to squander the advantages while they still have them.

In my opinion, China's competitive advantage over the United States lies not only in its large population.  

China is a mono-ethnic country.  The official religion is Buddhism. There are few Muslims in China end they are tightly controlled by the central government.  This means that China is not threatened by inter-ethnic and inter-confessional conflicts.  

In the United States in the future, interethnic and interfaith conflicts are possible, since the US population is very heterogeneous.

China is led by the Chinese Communist Party. There is only one political party in China.  

This allows for important decisions and systematic development of the economy in a predetermined direction.

China is very much threatened by inter-ethnic and interfaith conflicts. That's why they've rounded up their Muslim inhabitants by the millions and put them in concentration camps and torture them under "re-education" programs. China is so centrally managed because the leadership is deathly afraid of anyone who doesn't swear absolute loyalty to the party.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: verita1 on January 09, 2021, 11:56:30 PM
Although I was not able to open your link. I did a search and found it.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/china-expected-to-surpass-us-economy-in-2028-analysis/ar-BB1cfsIH (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/china-expected-to-surpass-us-economy-in-2028-analysis/ar-BB1cfsIH)

I agree with what the article says. Because it is quite obvious that now the USA is at a disadvantage because it is still dealing with the Covid19 pandemic. Which results in a backwardness in its economy and less productivity.

The opinion that you indicate that it should increase its population is very viable. Surely the USA will be creating adequate strategies to come out successfully in this crisis that very soon will begin to shine.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: AndySt on January 09, 2021, 11:59:14 PM
China is very much threatened by inter-ethnic and interfaith conflicts. That's why they've rounded up their Muslim inhabitants by the millions and put them in concentration camps and torture them under "re-education" programs. China is so centrally managed because the leadership is deathly afraid of anyone who doesn't swear absolute loyalty to the party.
Interethnic and sectarian conflicts can threaten any large country simply because of its size, and that is why central governments exist to deal with such issues. Another issue is that I don't have strong confidence that a few million inhabitants can so much threaten the integrity of a country with 1.4 billion people predominantly belonging to one ethnic group called "Han", which makes up 93% of the population. For modern China, ideological and property stratification is much more dangerous, when the political system may not keep up with the rapidly growing well-being of citizens who may demand more respect for their own opinions.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: Sithara007 on January 10, 2021, 03:36:23 AM
Interethnic and sectarian conflicts can threaten any large country simply because of its size, and that is why central governments exist to deal with such issues. Another issue is that I don't have strong confidence that a few million inhabitants can so much threaten the integrity of a country with 1.4 billion people predominantly belonging to one ethnic group called "Han", which makes up 93% of the population. For modern China, ideological and property stratification is much more dangerous, when the political system may not keep up with the rapidly growing well-being of citizens who may demand more respect for their own opinions.

China is a very homogenous country, and it gives them a big advantage over other countries such as India, United States and Russia, which are heterogenous. Not just 93% of the population is Han, but a large portion of the population is made of assimilated ethnic groups such as Manchu and Tujia, who speak the Mandarin language and are hard to distinguish from the Han. Only a few smaller ethnic groups such as Uyghur and Tibetan have resisted complete assimilation. And the citizens don't complain much, since their disposable income is increasing every year.

Other countries are caught up in a web of preferential treatment and affirmative action to certain ethnic group, which leads to inter-ethnic hostility.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: jaysabi on January 10, 2021, 05:07:37 AM
China is very much threatened by inter-ethnic and interfaith conflicts. That's why they've rounded up their Muslim inhabitants by the millions and put them in concentration camps and torture them under "re-education" programs. China is so centrally managed because the leadership is deathly afraid of anyone who doesn't swear absolute loyalty to the party.
Interethnic and sectarian conflicts can threaten any large country simply because of its size, and that is why central governments exist to deal with such issues. Another issue is that I don't have strong confidence that a few million inhabitants can so much threaten the integrity of a country with 1.4 billion people predominantly belonging to one ethnic group called "Han", which makes up 93% of the population. For modern China, ideological and property stratification is much more dangerous, when the political system may not keep up with the rapidly growing well-being of citizens who may demand more respect for their own opinions.

I think the fact that China has instituted such a controversial program belies this point.  If China wasn't worried about the minority populations, there would be no need to put them in concentration camps and force torturous re-education programs on them.  At the very least, it's threatens to turn the world against them.  I think wealth stratification is another threat (related to what you said as ideological and property stratification) which is why the communist party is so obsessed with growing the Chinese economy at any cost, including controlling the media so no other narrative can be told other than the glowing success of the Chinese economic miracle, and the party delivering enough tangible benefits to make the however much of it that is illusory seem true to placate the population.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: karisiak123 on January 10, 2021, 06:05:55 PM
It could happen china from year to year continues to develop in terms of technology and others. will certainly improve its economy and even beat other countries. With a large population of course they continue to grow in terms of creating a new one to defeat other countries


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: stompix on January 13, 2021, 02:27:54 PM
Okay I do not want to turn this into a political post, because let's face it, there is no way I can write something that will change your opinion suddenly and make you realize that you were wrong, and there is none that you can say that will change mine, so going into a political discussion would be a futile attempt.
However I would like to correct a few factual wrongs here. First of all we have peaked at 34 million unemployment applications, 4 times higher than ever before in history of USA, but let's give that to covid and not trump ....

You don't want to turn this into something politically but you start attacking Trump because he is the one to have lost those jobs, well then blame Woodrow Wilson for the outcome of ww1 and the deaths of the Spanish flu.
I'm not a Trump fan at all but since you've said you don't want to be politically biased how about you look at the before the covid (https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-employment.htm) : 152 million in 2017, 158 million at the start of 2020. Was Trump at fault when Canada lost 3 million jobs in March and April or what happened (https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-09-01/spain-experienced-europes-worst-job-destruction-in-first-half-of-the-year.html) in Europe?

If you want to make a case why was he a bad president do the numbers for the other 3 years he was in charge, 3 years of economical data is enough to make an analysis and back your claim. I have a feeling there is a need for a scapegoat and now everyone tries to pin everything on him.


every single stat shows that dude basically tried to bankrupt USA just like he did with all his other business' as well, having hundreds of millions of dollars worth of debt is "normal" to him, so he tried to basically mimic the same thing for USA as well.
Now that Biden is the president (well soon)

....he is going to do exactly the same , print trillions and not care about the debt (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-trillion-here-and-a-trillion-there--pretty-soon-its-real-money/2020/08/23/31ccaf78-e3d2-11ea-b69b-64f7b0477ed4_story.html).

Quote
To these costs ought to be added the projected budget deficits under existing policies. For the period from 2021 to 2030, CBO figures that’s another $13 trillion. The grand total comes to $20.7 trillion (the $13 trillion, plus the $7.7 trillion).

And after 4 years we're going to have the same discussion but with reverse rolls, the previous guy was better, I've seen it way too many times already to give a single f about who is in charge anymore.



Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: AicecreaME on January 13, 2021, 02:40:31 PM
Not surprising at all, especially in this time of pandemic, it seems like the rumors about COVID-19 was really invented in China, their vaccine is cheaper but less effective compare to other countries vaccines. Of course poor third world countries that's being manipulated by China would support China's vaccine, meaning they are going to make profits out of their incompetent vaccine. China is all about business, their Government is evil in my opinion, that's why Taiwan made their own government.

I'm not going to be surprise if one day China will declare the World War 3 because of its power against so many Nations. I guess judgment day (based on the Bible) is coming soon.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: emmybd on January 13, 2021, 03:14:12 PM
China has achieved tremendous economic growth over the past twenty years. China is trying their best to boost their economic growth compared to the US. China was the first country which was attacked by Covid-19 but they didn't fall down economically. But on the other hand, US faced a lot of difficulties because of Covid-19. They faced economical crisis. Millions of Americans lost their job during this pandemic.
A report says that, the US economy will grow by about 1.9% annually from 2022-24 and then slow to 1.6% in the years after that. But surprisingly the Chinese economy is will grow by 5.7% annually until 2025, and 4.5% annually from 2026-2030. China is becoming economically stronger than US day by day. China is hoping that one day they will be economically more stable than US. And that day is not so far. So, their main goal is now to surpass US economy by 2028 and they believe that they will be able to do this.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: mu_enrico on January 13, 2021, 03:54:12 PM
What's the metric? GDP or GDP per capita?
If you look at only the (aggregate) GDP, you will see even Indonesia beat Netherland, Saudi Arabia, and Switzerland. Does it mean our economy is better than the mentioned countries? No way.

With that population, it's difficult to "share the pie." Therefore, we will see they will become more expansive, especially when there is little innovation (traits of communism).


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: laredo7mm on January 13, 2021, 04:05:57 PM
Quote
The Chinese economy is expected to surpass that of the U.S. in 2028 - five years earlier than previously forecast - following fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, according to an analysis released Saturday.

Source:  https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-expected-to-surpass-us-economy-in-2028-analysis/

As stated, this is 5 years earlier than last projected, due to the effects of the pandemic. The US is not going to like being in the number two spot, and even less when India’s economy then surpasses the US after that. The biggest benefit to this massive Asian economies is the sheer number of people. The United States’ best hope of competing is to increase the number of Americans and, and quickly.


So how the USA is going to do that? Do you think they should let foreign people come to their country and govt should give them lands and money to build a firm? People in the western county is not like Asian. Most of the people in western countries do not like to have many children or do can not produce more because they are so busy with other things. Also, most of the people do not like to leave their own country if they are not in need. If Asian people can produce enough money to make an easy life they will not go to western countries no matter how big their salary is. 


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: so98nn on January 15, 2021, 07:54:30 AM
Americans already hiring huge number of people from outside the country and global immigration is even higher than previous year for sure. But I feel somewhat bad that when Trump was on throne he did not do very well to keep this promise and immigrations were halted too mass extent. This is also one of the factor America started its downfall and dollar reduced in pricing.

With this shock they started to print more money and eventually pandemic hit them, and with more severity than the others. I think they had poor management of all. Considering Asian countries like China, India with highest population of all with poor standard of living, still they managed to control the corona like no one else.

The whole economy shot depends on the people working within the country and for the country. So yeah they need to have master plan to come out of the crisis. 


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: fullhdpixel on January 16, 2021, 06:25:55 AM
As stated, this is 5 years earlier than last projected, due to the effects of the pandemic. The US is not going to like being in the number two spot, and even less when India’s economy then surpasses the US after that. The biggest benefit to this massive Asian economies is the sheer number of people. The United States’ best hope of competing is to increase the number of Americans and, and quickly.

So how the USA is going to do that? Do you think they should let foreign people come to their country and govt should give them lands and money to build a firm? People in the western county is not like Asian. Most of the people in western countries do not like to have many children or do can not produce more because they are so busy with other things. Also, most of the people do not like to leave their own country if they are not in need. If Asian people can produce enough money to make an easy life they will not go to western countries no matter how big their salary is. 
I would say the joke was about having a lot more kids for the next generation and not just getting more people. Obviously having kids will not help you in the next 8 years, but it was a joke after all. If it was just a joke, I would say it was simply just a logical argument where having more people in your nation would mean you could make a lot more money with a lot more work as well.

However USA is doing fine what they are doing right now, they do not need to be "biggest economy in the world" to be a powerful nation, do you know why? China will be big, but it will be big by CCP, all those Chinese horrible disgusting officials will be rich while regular people will be poor, USA could still have poor people but even working minimum wage in mcdonalds will give you 10x better life than a regular Chinese.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: Shasha80 on January 17, 2021, 01:47:21 AM
If you look at the Chinese government which is very aggressive in advancing its economy, and now the quality of products from China has increased.
Like it is not impossible that China's economy can surpass the US economy. But for me the country fails if it cannot provide welfare to its people.
So China may be happy that its economy can eventually become the best in the world, but I believe there are still many poor people in China. So why
have the strongest economy in the world, but in China there are still many people who still have difficulty finding food, because many Chinese residents
do not have a decent income.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: Sithara007 on January 17, 2021, 03:53:07 AM
Americans already hiring huge number of people from outside the country and global immigration is even higher than previous year for sure. But I feel somewhat bad that when Trump was on throne he did not do very well to keep this promise and immigrations were halted too mass extent. This is also one of the factor America started its downfall and dollar reduced in pricing.

With this shock they started to print more money and eventually pandemic hit them, and with more severity than the others. I think they had poor management of all. Considering Asian countries like China, India with highest population of all with poor standard of living, still they managed to control the corona like no one else.

The whole economy shot depends on the people working within the country and for the country. So yeah they need to have master plan to come out of the crisis. 

The American immigration system is a joke. They are implementing more restrictions on skilled immigrants (by tightening the H1B visa), while the illegal immigrants (who are mostly uneducated, or even illiterate) are being given amnesties and welfare. The current immigration system is favoring welfare rats over qualified migrants. On the other hand, in China they are trying to attract highly skilled migrants from all around the world, although in lower numbers.


Title: Re: China Economy Forecasted to Surpass US Economy by 2028
Post by: chrisculanag on January 17, 2021, 04:20:41 AM
If you look at the Chinese government which is very aggressive in advancing its economy, and now the quality of products from China has increased.
Like it is not impossible that China's economy can surpass the US economy. But for me the country fails if it cannot provide welfare to its people.
So China may be happy that its economy can eventually become the best in the world,


I monitored that country and you are right about that , china is very progressive in their economy and thats why china can surpass the US economy in 2028. Welfare its very important in every countries but the pandemic is very damaged in US economy.

but I believe there are still many poor people in China. So why
have the strongest economy in the world, but in China there are still many people who still have difficulty finding food, because many Chinese residents
do not have a decent income.


Thats true , because they dont know how to manage the poor people and some of the government are corrupt. They dont know to give a good welfare for the country but they are times that the people are also the reason to blame for why they suffer.