Bitcoin Forum

Nowadays, no one believes BTC will dramatically drop to below $20K in 2021. Everybody is crazy in bull market , but risks are building up.

The major resistance zones I see are:
28000-30000
26000-28000 (overlaps with above so the area above 28000 probably won't be well protected of we start to decline by a few 000).
21200-24300

And then 18-20..id say a drop below 18k by now is especially unlikely unless something major happens but a drop to 20-24k may still be quite likely.
Though we could end up just going straight up...

$20k from $33k would be a 40% drop... extremely unlikely this early in the bull run.

I seriously doubt we'll ever see $20k again.

Those are some serious last words right there.  Granted you could be correct, but it's good to keep in mind that anything could happen.  I personally think we see a 6 digit Bitcoin price before this year is over, as do most others now, but it's important to remember that one significant development could result in Bitcoin going to 0 tomorrow.  Being confident is good, but I wouldn't mortgage the house to go loading up on Bitcoin at multiyear highs.  The time to get bullish was at $4K, not at all time highs.

When it hit $20k in 2017 no one thought it would retrace back in the $3k's and it did.  If bitcoins price history has taught anything is that ANYTHING is possible, so going back to 20k would not be crazy at all at this point.  Never say never (although I'm very bullish at this point with everyone else)

True, but we're talking about this year. It will depend on the length of this bull run. If it goes straight up, pretty much like it did today, it could end in just a few days around 50k and crash straight down with a normal dead cat bounce. If we were to fall now it wouldn't be fast and hard, but if we were to reach 50k next week it could correct to around 24k, bounce back to 40-45 and crash all the way to 22k because exact 20k wasn't a strong resistance on the way up so I wouldn't expect it to be a strong support. It's more likely to stop at 22k or fall all the way down to 19k.

Everything could be possible. There is still a chance that crypto value down to zero if you take Buffet's view on crypto into account.

There are possibilities of Bitcoin dropping down to $20k or else pumping up to over $50k and it would be difficult to predict which way the boat will sail, if it's the positive wave then we might see massive pump as users will be investing more into Bitcoin for better returns and if it's negative wave then we might see panic selling but not similar to 2018 as users have learnt a lesson about panic selling. This time we will see more users HODling regardless Bitcoin drops down to $20k or $2k.

Yup. I gave up trying to call tops a long time ago, but I also avoid making sweeping statements like that.

Historically the maximum downside at this point in a BTC bull market is ~42%. That means the low $19,000s are still on the table. Would be rather fitting to test the previous ATH as support. Doesn't mean we have to, but the more people who think it's impossible, the more likely it is in my book. Especially considering how far and fast the rally took off. "Too far too fast" is often a recipe for punishing late bulls and leveraged longs. In 2017, BTC loved liquidating longs before thrusting to new highs.

If you look at the current price of bitcoin $32,760, it is especially unlikely that it suddenly drops very  much  to $20k.  If that happens,
there will be many people panic sell, maybe. I think it's going to go down slowly if a correction  happens.  Maybe first he'll touch $30K.
If it gets down to $20k, I'll buy bitcoin at that price, maybe people will do the same

I see $20k as being the same as what $800 was in late winter and spring of 2017, or what $40 was in the summer of 2013, a mythical buy-back point for bears who sold too low.

All the wishful thinking in the world is unlikely to make it come true.

Dips of that magnitude happen after bubbles break, not when they're just starting to really take off. Once we got a third of the way to the first $100k of this rally, I think we passed the point of no return.

Agree, in normal times at least, I would expect to see $19k/$20k tested again. But in normal times I also expected to see $11k tested once as support but instead the price just kept going up. These are not normal times. This is the start of the institutional wave, and it has been locking away hundreds of millions of dollars for the long term every single week. I certainly think a drop back to mid-to-high $20,000's could happen if it happens soon, and it probably wouldn't last long, but $20k just seems too far for even a quick spike at this point. I don't expect sub-$20k to ever be seen again. More likely by February the price is $40,000s than $20,000s.

I believe that it will eventually create a stability on $25k-$30k and there's still a possible drop as usual. We knew how bitcoin is for being volatile. But if that happens and would drop below $20k, it wouldn't go as low as $10k again.
It might happen but the recovery will commence quickly.

Risks is indeed building up and I don't really have that kind of behavior or insights that price wont able to go down into these particular levels.

If you have been here on this market then you cant really be that too confident on what your eyes seeing because price can crash in a short span of time.
20k isn't really to far off for us to drop on that level.This is why when you do have the opportunity to sell for profits then better do it on active manner
then buy when its cheap and rinse and repeat.

One thing or goal here is to make profits no matter what kind of trend we do have.

Maybe we'll see fluctuations eradicate more times, because more sellers will take advantage with the higher value. Greed contributes with the market saturation, so another opportunity will come for other traders and investors. There could be a possibility that btc will touch nearly $20k but eventually climbs back again to $30k.

Players involved in this bull run are different than before, institutional investors have a different idea than retail investors and traders, whoever has sold bitcoin below $30k might regret selling at a lower price moreover if the price won't dip below it and bitcoin continue to rise to $40k. We have speculated that at some level bitcoin will undergo a correction, in turned out the contrary, and now we assume bitcoin will continue to grow and will not experience a large decline anytime soon. Even a 20% drop would cause the bitcoin price to drop to around $25k, then what will cause bitcoin to drop by as much as 40%? that is when institutional investors started selling their bitcoins for profit.

I dont think the question was will it go to 20k in one trade, of course if it goes to 20k it will hit 30k first it has to.  And yes if it goes down sharply I think there will be a lot of savy buyers that will be cost averaging up or down their portfolio gladly at 20k

We are in a new territory now, so obviously we haven't seen this kind of price before so we really don't know if there will be resistance or where will this bull run will end. So it's hard to tell, as this is just the start of everything and this could go into full 12-24 months wherein we are going to see crazy runs. But shallow corrections, because the whole narrative of bitcoin has also made a dramatic U-turn in the last couple of months. So I will say that unlikely that we will see $20,000.

We may not be sure that the price of bitcoin can not drop to 20,000 or below anymore. Bitcoin is a highly fluctuating cryptocurrency and moving upwards and downwards. Therefore, the possibilities are there for such happening.
It has happened in the past , from 2017 that price came to 20,000 but it dropped in 2018 and 2019 back to around 5,000 and beloe in 2018. So, if that has happened, it can repeat itself again as a correction from the bull run.  If in example the whales decide to cash out heavily, then expect that price can drop for them to back back.

It is still possible to see bitcoin drop below $20k this year, but I do not want to expect that price after bitcoin price rise so far. But we still need to be careful because if the price drops to that price, we can buy more bitcoin at a low price and we need to use that chance to buy bitcoin. But I guess the price will continue to rise as the green candle and the bullish trend are still on the market. But I think that the flash dump can happen in the short term or long term because that moment can happen anytime.

I remember back in late 2017, everybody wanted BTC to go back to $10K so they could buy it, this was after it peaked at $20K. I also assumed $10K was a great buy in area. So I made a large order at $10K, didn't think I would ever get a fill and then a few weeks later.... order was filled.

I think the price went to like $12K topped, only to never return to $12K again until years later. Then shortly after it had a bad crash all the way to $6K. So if history is to repeat itself.

What if it goes to $20K and never back up again until years later? We might go to $20K, then $25K and then below $20K again. So its better for BTC to never retest $20K again, because most likely it will spook many people and many will sell the bounce after $20K at maybe $25-30K and then it might enter a bear market like last time.

This is Bitcoin, anything is possible here. 2019 actually had a few attempts at bull runs that failed, so there's actually no rule that says that if Bitcoin is going up, it will continue going up for a long time. We hope that this is a repetition of a 2017 scenario, but it could be a completely new scenario too. Start taking profits now if you can't afford to risk, or just relax and hodl if you won't mind the possible crash.

With BTC hitting $3k after the run to $20k, that was a 85% drop.  An equivalent drop of 85% from $33k today would put it roughly around $5k.  It's not unlikely and technically speaking it would be a double bottom since that was exactly where it dipped back in March 2020.

One thing that gets overlooked is that there is a lot of money printing.  I'm not just talking about Tether.  

The US Federal Reserve is printing lots of money.  The Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 are at all-time historic highs right now.  Because they're propped up with all the money being printed.  Bitcoin isn't rising in relation to that - it's rising because of that.  Wallstreet is a much bigger player today, and these companies have the funding to buy bitcoin, because the US government is printing more money.  Companies that have no business getting into bitcoin (i.e., MicroStrategy) are buying bitcoin.

If you check the graphs of interest rates with the Dow Jones, the peaks and troughs correlate with those of Bitcoin.  When Bitcoin crashed in January 2018, there was a drop in the US economy as well.  Bitcoin prices today move much more closely with the US economy since 2017.  

Does anyone really think the US economy is going to keep growing explosively?  I don't think so.  

The market is full of heavy-hitters now, and I don't think they'd want weak hands to be in.  Weak hands are only helpful for driving up FOMO.  Soon enough we'll see a whole slew of exchange 'hacks' and bad news as the so-called reason for the next pullback.  In reality the reason is because there will be less free money being printed to drive up the price.  It's a cycle.  Enjoy this peak while it lasts and ride out the waves to the next one.


Exactly.

The price Bitcoin now becoming more unpredictable unlike before, nobody will ever believe the price will reach $34K as early in 2021 within 3 days to new year now meanwhile the tendency of it dumping massively is also imminent based on the fact that history repeat itself however the pullback might stop at $20K support zone although there is another strong support at $10K, institutional adoption will not warrants it to go down to that level unlike in 2017.

But the energy changes immediately the bear steps in then you'll beginning seeing prediction of how low the market can go. When the whole market is bullish you'll hardly see a possibility of it dropping very low. Remember 2020, nobody predicted a low of $4500 but it did happen due to the pandemic that affected all market. Bitcoin been below $20000 can't be ruled out in 2021 as nobody know what bad news the years has in store for us but hopefully it'll not be very devasting.

We can see how the SEC going affect RXiP sorry XRP is affecting the price and privacy currency are already getting delisted form some exchange. Probably there is some bitcoin fud upcoming. I think (my personal opinions though) we can retest the $20k price in 2021 but the overall sentiment is still bullish and the then retest the $10k.in 2022 when the bear season begins.

Seeing the corrections that are often made by bitcoin when the beginning of the year have occurred and there are no surprises that make us worry when like 2018 where the downward correction continues. now bitcoin has dropped and stopped around $ 31K and it seems comfortable to hang on there, this indicates that bitcoin will be able to increase again.

it looks like the prediction of the halving will happen, if that's true then there will be an extraordinary surprise for bitcoin this year, a renewable ATH will be formed again. but the most important thing is that altcoins can also get moving and receive renewable ATH too.

BTC back to $ 20000 possible in 2021 may be sure to be delayed again.

It is likely that we are stopping at $34,000. I think we are not yet done with the bullish season as the BTC price still at high and altcoins had come to follow. Ain't to say that $20,000 is not possible as we are in that level before, the chances is big and that only it happens when this bullish had come to an end (in the coming days). We know that this Bullish season can't be forever and that we get back down again sooner.

If you understand the difference between this year's bullrun and 2017, then you will understand that Bitcoin price will not dump below $ 20k or $ 10 again, bitcoin has entered a new era where mass adoption occurs, demand increases and prices will continue to rise, just hold on until bitcoin is priced over $ 100k

Not just mass adoption, but bitcoin is becoming the number hedge by institutions and big companies, used to be gold but there is a total shift of the narrative to bitcoin now.

In the last 3 days or so we have seen some dump to $29k but now the price is going to $33k+ again, indicative that every chance this companies can get their hands on bitcoin from weak hands, they are going to buy it in bundles and huge amounts. And with that, it's hard to see the price going $20k unless they sell, but I doubt that, this companies is using it a hedge.

Its almost a jinx to think in such a way, volatility is something thats not going away.   People need money for all sorts of reasons some essential some not, sometimes they just have to sell and its nobodies fault if the price goes back to the 200 day average one day.   A big spike down can happen same as a spike up so a more involved answer would be, do we speculate the 200 day moving average will become a negative gradient in 2021 and that part I would guess is considerably less likely but erratic movement I think is part of the landscape.

If you go back about 140-150 pages in this board (speculation) to reach early 2017 or if you go back 350 to 400 pages to reach 2013) you will find your answer in the same topics that were being posted back in 2017 and 2013 during the time when price broke the ATH of those times (like the $1200 in 2017) and has been going up and was 75% higher (in $2100 to $3000 range). It was the exact same time as now and people were asking the exact same question as yours ("BTC back to $1200?").
The answer is all the same too, NO. You have to kiss that opportunity goodbye.

P.S. I strongly encourage everyone to do this, it is a very good experience to see nothing really has changed with the trends.

It seems that the power of the bulls is still overwhelming compared to the bears with the market. If we have to cover most of the things in the market, they are still not stopping. Until when is the question that it will remain at the range of $35000 and $30000, but I don't think it's going to get back into the $20000 level. I believe it will be near the second strong support at around $25000—possibly another rebuy opportunity.

Unless there's going to be a new pandemic or something that would alter the course of history again, I don't think it will go down this year.