Bitcoin Forum

From the visual chart, it seems that retailers (old, new) rejoin or join the party again. The time-series line for Google trend with bitcoin keyword (globally) is on a rise and it is currently about 25% lower than its all time high in 2017.

The thread is to announce the potential of a new wave from retailers. A reminder is you do know what sort of retailers' effects and their longevitty, then what will happen after that.

It is a very simplified view. Sometimes, we need to be as simplest as possible.  :D

From the data points around 15k (Bitcoin Google trend) to 20k, it is ~ 33% increase for Bitcoin Google trend. Within the same period, the price of bitcoin rose from $15455 to $19140. It is about 23.85% rise.

If history repeats itself, the price of bitcoin from current all time high at $34778 will rise up to $43072. That price is still lower than some other speculation.

Again, it is not my financial advice, just my opinion and another different way to view the market.  ;)

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Data sources

• https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&q=bitcoin
• https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/

Wrong time frames are being compares here, but it is interesting to see that the trend is already going up this soon.
All time high in 2017 was the end of the bull run after lots of rises and when the bubble was reached whereas now is just the beginning of the bull run and if anything it is more like the beginning of 2017 rather than its end.
The hype is just getting started ;)

Thanks. I know that and this thread is for very robust overview on the market with some assumptions behind:

• Gogole Trend does not change their algorithm for those stats over last 5 years.
• Beware and accept biases from Google Trend stats
• Assume the power or force of retailers on the market in 2 periods are the same
• Skip other power/ force from institutes in near future

In reality, institutes will have effects (probably bigger), and retailers might have very bigger effects than what they created in 2017.

I am speechless, it is not what I expected hours ago.  :D

In any case, investing in bitcoin is more promising in my opinion.

Let's just hope that this is not a sign of an incoming crash  ;D

I heard a theory that institutional investors will dump their coins on retail investors at the end of this bull run, which will start the bear market. Even if this theory is correct, I doubt that it will happen anytime soon, the bull run has just started, the institutional interest in Bitcoin still seems to be strong, i.e. not all institutions have hopped the hype train yet.

Agree with most analyses now that retail fomo won't be as strong as in the past, but that is only with the past and current demographic of developed economies. The East Asian fomo, with a significant population of high disposable income should lay the foundation for a new breed of retail fomo... Not to mention later from emerging economies.

As someone above said, it's only just getting started!

Against the backdrop of increasing institutional investment (more sustained price rise as they suck supply off the market), and also based on the idea that Bitcoin's market cycles are slowing down (I expect this cycle to last longer than 4 years), I think retail FOMO will be more sustained this time. Across the board, developed economies too.

Only ~15% of Americans own crypto, for instance. That's still a huge market to tap. And now with Wall Street backing the hype instead of fighting it? We're entering a whole new era of legitimacy.

A lot of people who refused to touch BTC last time around will get in this time.

Bitcoiners' Demographic over years (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5291907.0)

• Surveys have many things with their survey designs, then analytical methods and analytical process. Those stats in that thread are all for reference with zero guarantee on their accuracy.
• From my reading time, I found out that older generations have been more interested in bitcoin. It makes sense as they are most conservative people so if they accept bitcoin, are readily to spend capital to bitcoin, the younger generations will have more adoption on bitcoin.

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As being said, I expect bigger effects from both institutes and retailers. Game is set but beware of hiccups along the adventure in 2021.

The estimate in OP is 'naive' estimate, with many assumption from past data. It is impossible to calculate or estimate power of new investor sources.

I think this has become an usual activity whenever there is an increase in price of bitcoin the news channels and media houses begin to show Bitcoin related news and then people begin to look up for Bitcoin and many see this as breathtaking technology and regret not investing in it and then Bitcoin goes a bit south and those who invested realised that they had made a mistake and those who didn't invest celebrate that they are intelligent that they didn't fell for this bubble. I think their definitely be a set of investors who would join the party.

Also thinking it's a long cycle, if not even the last "parabola". Just hoping there is also a longer time spent above average price than below, unlike all the other cycles. Not that it really changes things for me long-term, just will be a good sign of how Bitcoin might look like after 2 more halvings (when the decrease won't be as stark).


Perhaps that really is what it'll look like for Bitcoin. I still think people actually using it, often and for spending and payments, is what really kicks up Bitcoin fundamentally. And that's not really what conservative users will be doing. But hey, whatever gateway works!

Ah interesting to see Google trends on the rise.

Though I worry much less about a big crash because no matter how much the retail market is moving into Bitcoin right now, institutions are moving into it with a lot more money. And they aren't FOMOing in, which would leave them with risky positions that need to be liquidated which is what happens during retail frenzies and which causes big crashes. Rather, they are building long term positions of like a percent or two, which is not something that needs to be panic liquidated during a drop.

I expect the FOMOing of the retail market to be more gradual now, and therefore less volatile, than in previous cycles.

There will still be short bubbles and corrections, but maybe not one big bubble and one big bear market like previously.

While last decade was a series of giant bubbles and perilous crashes as Bitcoin attempted to gain relevancy in the world as it moved along the left-hand side of the S-curve graph, I think this decade will be the vertical move up that S-curve graph. There will be volatility and small bubbles and corrections, but over the long term it will be a sustained upward movement of two orders of magnitude ($10k to $1 million) rather than having years-long periods of building back up between bubbles.

We are now out of the period in which Bitcoin gets noticed for a year and then dismissed for three years. It is now entering its Digital Gold status. As this status gradually grows both retail and institutional markets will gradually get further in to Bitcoin. Corrections will be limited to a few months at most for the next few years as Bitcoin shoots up the S-curve graph. It is time for Bitcoin's super cycle. The 4 year cycle worked well between the first halving and the third halving, but the game is changing now. Instead of a bull year/bear year/2 year buildup/bull year the next five years, we're just gonna see a single ~5 year bitcoin supercycle bull run.

bitcoins lost in wallets not recoverable anymore and the 21 million cap plus big money coming into the race

trend is certainly up

The retail game cannot beat the institutional one: there are infinite orders of magnitude between their money ammo and those available to poor consumers. The bitcoin market changed its face for good, forget 2017.

Exactly. It'll take some time, but the market bottom is going to move an order of magnitude higher in the near future. Institutions have soooooo much more money than what previously existed in the entire crypto market...even if they only put in 1%.

I feel like retail fomo could be even bigger when they realize that this time around it is not crashing. Let me explain it this way, last time bitcoin was on route to 20k, steam, amazon, hotel website companies, everyone basically got involved, they wanted to be paid with bitcoin, that was a great period, however do you know what happened?

Well in the end, people actually removed all the bitcoin payments after the crash, none of them wanted a part of bitcoin. This time around the hurt from those times stands, because they remember they did accepted once and it got very low and they lost a ton of money, they do not want the same thing to happen once again, which resulted with them not getting involved anymore. It is not really a horrible situation, it is not great neither but it is not horrible, we can definitely do a lot better with a bit more time.

Steam started accepting bitcoin payments back in 2016 when price was $400 (not on route to $20k)
Amazon has never accepted bitcoin payments!
Random other businesses like hotels have been coming along every now and then starting to accept bitcoin.

You are wrong again, only Steam and a handful of others removed bitcoin payment option before the ATH and it was because of the huge transaction fees in 2017 that exceeded the cost of the stuff they sold (like the games by steam).

You can not say institutes beat retailers and vice versa. They are two mutual components of any market. In different phase, one component dominates the another and it flips at different market phase.

Mid-point of the parabola rise is around, according to some speculations

• This tweet (https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1346986785713385472)
• My calculation (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5307161.msg56030337#msg56030337) (with same assumptions that not count for bigger power in current and future market. I meant if taking into consideration of bigger power from institutes, retailers as increase of adoption, price would be higher than what I calculated)
• Mayer bands (https://digitalik.net/btc/mayer_bands) (it is only in Bullish extension, not Overbought yet)
• My calculation almost matches with this chart (https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-investor-tool/) (upper bound but BTC can rock over upper bound)
• The party is here but please be cautious of hiccups

I am sorry but you are comparing apples and oranges here. Failing to recognize the difference between the retail and institutional market is a mistake. We would have never reached these prices with the retail market only, I guess that should be clear. You may find the following article interesting
https://articles.cruxinvestor.com/institutional-vs-retail-investors

Yeah, investing into Bitcoin is no doubt promising but some investors will definitely invest in the wrong time which may crumble their hope if not financially stable, like what we have seen in past years in Bitcoin. Basically there might still be time for anyone to invest into bitcoin and be able to take profit, but if the market has reach it strength at this point; then retailers are likely to be left with coins but IMO that won't happen soon becasue institutions are now be involve in Bitcoin.

You did not see the word mutual?

I did not say they are the same and they can create games in the market without the another component. Institutes ~ whales, just a name-calling as institutes when they are companies, entities, not a person.

Amazon did accepted bitcoin, in fact if I am not wrong it did accepted bitcoin for twitch and prime payments until last year, no idea if they still continue but around 2019 to 2020 I was a twitch viewer and subscribed to someone using bitcoin, which is owned by amazon and I did get a prime membership as well using bitcoin. But when it comes to payment, they stopped using it, I don't know where you live, I don't know if it is regional thing, but they accepted bitcoin for all amazon products and not third party ones, which is why I said amazon accepted it and stopped.

Steam did accepted it a lot earlier that is true part I can't argue but they stopped in 2018 not in 2017, I bought a game in 2018 using bitcoin (more specifically pubg, I wanted to see what the fuss was about). Expedia was the number one bitcoin hotel deal, no idea if they still continue but I used them and it was AWESOME, I hope they still have it. Long story short, retails did accepted it once, and not sure if they will come back, not like fee's are low right now.

My friends have been asking me "when to buy"? I always tell them to wait for the incoming crash, and the bear market that ALWAYS follows. We should never encourage anyone to buy NOW, they WILL blame you if they become financially ruined later.

But what if Bitcoin moons to, let's say, 150k, then crashes to 60k. Now your friends are angry that you talked them out of these potential profits. This is why I just never ever give anyone financial advises, and tell them to do their own research. You risk to spoil your relationship and for what - often times, even if you give someone a correct advice, they won't thank you.

We got your point but what if they are waiting for nothing and the bear market crash will not happen this year? Then they will wait for nothing and that's a waste of time so maybe try to advise them to buy whenever they see the price goes dump a little bit since for the current market flow happening today the dump is little and the pump is more bigger.

Because I have already told EVERYONE to buy UNDER $10,000 with me, UNDER $15,000, UNDER $20,000. They want to be angry? I believe they should be angry at themselves, not me. Would you tell your mother it's "OK" to buy Bitcoin priced at $40,000?

Seriously, even you think it's too late to buy?

Below $20K, I was telling friends to buy dips. Above $20K, I was telling them to buy anything (and especially dips). Nobody listened. And now they're all scared to buy and think they missed out.

In a month or two, I expect them all to be asking me which altcoins to buy. :D

I've seen this all before. This kind of sentiment tells me we're going so much higher. Retail has barely gotten their foot in the door.


I've always been adamant about this: if you don't own any BTC at all, it's a good time to buy some.

Yeah, it is kinda scary to buy Bitcoin at this point because it was insanely high besides, the fact that I don't even know when the market starts to fall. Even myself having a doubt to buy right now so I won't recommend to anyone to buy at this point. Perhaps, after a correction will do. They can take the risk of buying though but if it starts to fall they should be ready to hold it for the meantime till it goes up again as well. Just tell them what risk and gains can get out from it and let them choose. I think would be much better, you give them your opinion and now it's up to them what decision to be made.

I agree on the part that they didn't listen. I have told my friends in 2018 to buy bitcoin when it crashed, price was under 5k for a very long time during that period and they kept saying bitcoin price went from 20k to 5k so they will not buy since it is a project that "failed", I told them it didn't fail and it will definitely go up in the future, it is just in a bear period right now.

For nearly 2 years they kept saying the price didn't go up too much, was around 5-10k range for 2 years, and they "mocked" me for investing into something that didn't made any money at all and they were "right" about not putting their money into it. Look at the situation now... they keep telling me how I became "rich" thanks to bitcoin bubble, in reality I am not rich because lets face it I didn't buy millions of dollars so a 8x return doesn't automatically make me rich, but I made a great return, and I wasn't "lucky" because I told them this would happen, I knew it.

Personally, the best times to buy the dip and HODL to be comfortable are gone. I don't want my friends to be stressed. They don't have the same mentality as us, who can HODL. If I told them to buy Bitcoin at $40,000, crashed to $33,000, then I believe they would have sold, and tell me that I am a scammer. I want to avoid that. Hahaha.


I told friends and all the plebs of the forum to buy under $10,000, under $15,000, under 2017 ATH.


Do you remember this conversation, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5238343.msg54805879#msg54805879

The girl in the right-most panel are the people currently buying.

Fair enough. My friends were too scared to buy in the $30-42K range, so I told them the "safe" place to buy is at 30-40% down from the last peak.

I doubt any of them will actually pull the trigger now that the market is crashing, but anyone who does and gets in near $25K or $27K is going to be very happy down the road.


Sure, but this is only like.....stage 1 FOMO. We've got several more stages to go before this bubble is over. ;)

This google trend also one of my basis if the FOMO begin from retailers just like what happened last 2017-2018 when we saw a massive run for Bitcoin.
This time is really different from the lastime since even the google trend does not yet reach the its previous all-time-high, price of Bitcoin already doubled, so I conclude that Bitcoin still got more room on upside price actions.

I would start talking some people into buying if it crashes under $20,000, and be ready to dollar-cost-average their position.


Then what's the hurry? $10,000 was the right time in my opinion, not $40,000. Wait for Bitcoin to take a breather.

@Jimbo. I thank you a lot for the explanation and frankly you are right that English is not my native language.

However, I know the meaning of retailer that is an opposite of whole-saler and I was confused first time I read news (example (https://cointelegraph.com/news/did-bitcoin-price-just-see-a-retail-fomo-peak-signal-this-indicator-says-yes)) about it in crypto. So, from my interpretation, it seems to be distorted (it is not strange) and used to imply about small components on the market (which can be buyers or sellers at different times). News companies use that word as an opposite of whales. Then, I accept such meaning and use it this way. Is it correct?

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Such people probably never join the bitcoin market. They only want and regret. I have my friend that considered to join the market for 2 years (2019 to 2020). I am busy and sometimes I could not arrange to meet him and give him a quick guide into bitcoin market. I told him to prepare prerequisite things and I will meet him days or weeks later. Things have never been done. Then, when bitcoin rose to $41,000, he regretted.

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As being said, the power can be bigger but for now, bitcoin has been pulled back at the middle of the parabola. Somewhat, the naive estimation (in OP) is almost correct, just for now.

Many indicators are found to support bitcoin. And if it is true, we can even have an even higher all-time high which around $50000 or something. Bitcoin is unstoppable now

Personally, I think this trend is just the beginning. There will be a lot of change in 2021 or I would like to say in this decade. New inventions are able to change our life as well as free us from the centralized system. More and more people put their faith in bitcoin whereas new retailers are joining on the same ship to start earning money. Even if they jump out of the ship, the number of believers continues to increase and that is a good sign for the cryptocurrency world.

The today crash is a finish of the Elliot wave for this round of bitcoin bull run. After the correction that might last a bit long, a new bull run will be started and it will be a big one. I see the price from $60,000 to $100,000 is possible if consider the all time high is a middle of a parabolic arc. According to this tweet (https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1346986785713385472), Mayer Multipler bands (https://digitalik.net/btc/mayer_bands), or Stock-to-Flow model (https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/stock-to-flow-model/)

Higher price, I don't know but of course I wish it happens. There is scenario for a spike to $48,000 or above and then pull back, as this model shows (https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-investor-tool/). I don't bet on it and I am not obsessed with models.

Another user has own opinion and visual chart for 2021 Elliot wave (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5300627.20)

Don't trust much on promises on any innovation from crypto companies. Promises will be evaporated with bearish market.

Ignore all potential and real bias or uncertain factors, those charts disclose a general picture of the market (new inflow of observers, investors, capital)

Another way to detect retail effects

• Twitter followers of Crypto exchanges and Youtube's subscribers of influencers.
• Upticks on those bar charts indicate something.

Sources:

• https://twitter.com/mrjasonchoi/status/1351199407199420419
• Get real-time charts from
  
  • https://www.theblockcrypto.com/data/alternative-crypto-metrics/social
  • https://www.theblockcrypto.com/data/alternative-crypto-metrics/social/new-weekly-youtube-subscribers-of-influencers

Now, ignore them and take a glance at the chart for Pageviews of Bitcoin Wikipedia's page. It shows people searched, were directed to that page and maybe spent more time (assumed so) to read Bitcoin Wiki. The more knowledgeable they are, the higher probability that they will spend capital (or spend more) to invest in bitcoin. Many of them are future of bitcoin market.

Update guys.

• Google trend stats for the search with Bitcoin keyword has almost a free-fall in recent weeks. If you notice, the rate of this fall (~ 50%) is much bigger than the rate of bitcoin price correction.
• Ignore the bias or algorithms used by Google, the stats (for bitcoin search) shows people mostly or only search for Bitcoin when it has good rising tide. When it falls in price, people don't search more than usual even media still spreads news about it.
• Google trend stats for the search with Bitcointalk keyword has still been almost stable. It moves up and down but generally is stagnant.
• Daily volume of bitcoin is falling.

The Google trend also show rise in Bitcoin searches across the browser in Japan with more than 400% and the bull run has just started in the market once again.The institutional and retail investors both have invested huge amounts in Bitcoin market this quarter which have pushed the prices this high although institutional investments are in group or less transactions as they have huge balance with them compared to retail investors who have invested in small proportions due to money restrictions.But we all have pushed the prices to $60k mark in 2021 which was not possible from 2017 crash.So be positive about its growth and ready to face bearish market aslo.