Bitcoin Forum

Everyone expects a replay of 2017 so this would be a good way for the market to juke expectations.  Think more like 2013 with a big peak early in the year and then a consolidation leading into another $200k+ rally at the end of the year.  The current rally feels like it has too much momentum to be stopped before $70-80k.

Credibility?  Not much but I bought my first Bitcoin in 2013 and I've been watching the market for a long time.  Just putting it out there.

Just recently I made a post on how people can't predict the top very well because the last time we had a rally we seemed to go a bit like 10k->17k>13k>20k so a similar thing is probably likely (got a feeling these were a month at least a part from each other too though I don't remember the numbers exactly).

I barely participated in the last tmone though, just sold once we'd stabalised around 6-7k and bought back later (2018).

Bitcoin hit $37,7k as the highest price so far, but it seems not going to stop there, we might see it reach $40k by this week.
within 6 weeks means bitcoin reach $80k in February? What will be the new ath then, $150k-$200k?
Too far to get that price from this point imho, for starters we have to anticipate if there is a significant correction after bitcoin be able to achieve $40k, then we can predict for the next target of $50k, then $60k, $70k, so on and so forth, though for now I won't expect excessively.

This is no man's land. In my book, hardly anyone has credibility.

The momentum is incredible, indeed. I've been considering the possibility of an April 2013-like run up (and subsequent consolidation) too. The best candidates based on the growth so far are March-April 2013 and April-May 2017. Both powerful, but the former went further, faster, in a much more spectacular blow-off top.

Does this mean we get another 83% crash after the first peak? Imagine running up to $140K then dropping back to $25K. That's the magnitude of April 2013. What a roller coaster that would be! :D

Yes, the truth is that with the bull run, one does not stop seeing threads like this and it seems that people forget that at some point the price will have to come down. Usually if the price goes very high very fast, the crash will be worse also. The fundamentals are good, the current situation with institutional investors, shortage of supply, etc. too, but there may be something we are not considering now that will drive the price down.

The replay has already happen in 2020, we are in a different territory now, $80k could be touch this year, or even 6 digits as this is a very fast bull run market, more than 2017's last peak. Of course, there will be pullback, but it doesn't matter as we are short in bitcoins, many are waiting in the wing to just even get in as .01 - .1 BTC.


Good for you, I will assume that you have your bags filled many years ago at a cheap price.

Yeah I could totally see a double top happening this year. Though it won't be anything like 2013 in which there was a full on ~80% crash that was just short lived compared to other ~80% drops.

With how much institutional demand there is and how little supply there is, plus gradually growing retail demand as well (especially with Paypal recently joined), this thing is going much higher soon. The only thing that is gonna cause a correction is institutions decide it has gone up too far too fast and they wait for it to drop before getting back in at better prices. It does feel like price could hit $70k-$80k in March or April (I dunno about 6 weeks), at which point I do think institutions would get scared of a bubble forming and they'd wait for cheaper prices. Those that view it as protection against inflation and a store of value wouldn't sell at this point as they are holding for many years, but those that view it as a powerful trade to ride will sell to buy back lower, helping the correction along.

In such a case we'd see a decent correction and then institutions would start coming back in lower, sucking up even more retail and whale supply. Because that institutional demand will still very much be there, I don't think this correction would last more than a few months total from top, to bottom, back to previous top. After reaching a much higher floor than where this started at $10k, they'd feel better about pushing the price over $100k for another peak towards the end of the year probably. I see this sort of dynamic playing out repeatedly over the next few years - a few months of institutional buy-in, then let it fall back down to a new higher base price for a few months, then another buy-in, and repeat.

Before we become overzealous and forget that this is a market and our opinion plays a minor role compared to the larger majority. While we're all in for Bitcoin to reach insanely high price levels, we should be able to ask ourselves this questions:

I don't know if anyone has noticed yet but those institutions investors that bought Bitcoin in huge quantities around $10K - $25K, why haven't they bought anymore Bitcoin since then?  Before we get too carried away and not take profit, we should remember this.  As much as Bitcoin's demand and supply go, there's a market and it doesn't just go up and stay there.

You are missing the fact that the trend is not just a small one year one that you can compare it with 2017. Instead it is much longer and it takes about 4 years just like the one which ended in 2017 but started in 2014.
So far the trend from 2018 to today has been similar to the one from 2014 to 2016 and as we enter 2021 it is starting to become similar to the end of previous trend meaning 2017.

So it stands to reason to expect similar rise too meaning a rise to $80k which is 300% above the previous ATH should be similar to the rise to $3600 which was 300% above the ATH of that time and it took 7-8 months not 6 weeks.
That time frame makes more sense too for a 300% rise (compared to 50% a week) even though the momentum is currently very strong.
If anything shorter, we can see it in about 4-5 months considering 2017 had some road blocks such as the scaling debate slowing down the rise.

Which institutions are you talking about and how do you know they haven't bought more? Microstrategy put everything they have into Bitcoin over the course of several buys so they don't have more to buy Bitcoin with. Other institutions just made their first initial investment to test it out and will gradually increase their positions no doubt. Probably a few institutions already built their positions to where they want it to be. Other institutions have been buying more. And of course new institutions will continue to buy for the first time.

Bitcoin is a long term growth asset. It is nowhere near the price in which people won't buy in anymore. There may not be such a price. People and institutions will continue to buy as long as they think their investment will increase in value. The main factor to how high people will be willing to buy Bitcoin is time. If it rises too fast buyers will stop, but over time they will get used to the price so they will buy higher.

One thing that I know happens in BTC bull markets is that they very rarely give you a good dip, sometimes you might catch a good dip or two but eventually a dip will be the start of a bear market. So if BTC is pumping sometimes you need to chase it a little if you want to gain some profits. Waiting for a good dip isn't always a great way to enter because the dip might not come or it might not be the dip.

Nobody knows where this will stop. Might go to $50K might go to $100K. Because it to maybe wait for some massive correction and sell the 50% bounce of that correction. So if BTC goes to $100K and then pulls back to $50K, sell your position at $75K. If you look at previous bull tops, this scenario would of played out nicely. Sometimes you can even use the 0.618 fib instead of the 0.50 fib but there are times when it never reached the 618 fib and you would not get your order filled.

I believe the momentum will keep going although there will be correction but these corrections are opportunities for investors to buy and stock more, I just hope there will be more good news coming in so we can sustain the bull run until last quarter of the year, this what we have been waiting to happen for so many years now.

Looking back at the 2017 bull market, we saw the following dips.

• January 2017: 38%
• March 2017: 35%
• June-July 2017: 41%
• September 2017: 40%

And then if we look at the 2013 bull market, there was an 83% crash in April 2013 before the eventual blow-off top in November.

One could make the argument that this time is different, that institutional accumulation will limit the dips. But there's no way to claim past BTC bull markets didn't give good dips. They gave amazing chances for people to get back on the train, assuming they weren't too fearful to buy the dip.

I wish, in the past I've been too focused on cashing out instead of staying loyal through the bear markets  :'(  And then personal reasons prevented me from getting very involved in 2017.  But on this one I'm happy with myself for starting to buy in late July when I saw that nice breakout signal.  If you check my history from a few posts back I did accurately predict in 2017 that the low would be ~$3k on the following bear market.

This is exactly what I see happening as well.  In a more "sane" world, the correction at $35k would have lasted a few weeks, but instead it turned into panic selling and rebuying.  Don't underestimate the stimulus checks/money printing, and I think we may have another (bigger) round in the US to coincide with the early top I'm predicting  ;D

Nobody actually know what this year will hold becasue it wasn't here with us before. Considering what the past has told shouldn't be use to discuss this present, there wasn't any institutional investments in the past except the just passed year 2020, so, we're into another phase of Bitcoin that will take another year to study against the past. With the current momentum, we are likely to stop soon in this bullish run not when $80k is be torch.

BTC is already in bullish trend and we are experiencing this nearly from the past 4-5 weeks, but this doesn't mean it will keep on following this bullrun comparing to the current BTC price it is half way far from now, 80k till 2021 is possible but still it depends on the demand.

I am confused who are all buying BTC in so much huge price I know institutional investors are a part, apart from that FOMO plays a key role then local public should be investing in my opinion.

I am not going to lie I am quite scared. It is going up extremely quickly with ATH daily or even hourly. It seems well over heated
100k was my lowest prediction for this cycle but I am concerned it may crash before than. When it dumps its going to dump hard

Yeah, it is definitely starting to overheat in a big way.  These last few weekly candles are about the same size as the ones in Nov-Dec. 2017 on a log scale.  I don't think it can keep this up much longer, which is why I think we're going to see a pretty big blow-off top quite soon actually.  The huge backing of institutional demand is definitely a game-changer though.

At this point in time, those who have big amounts of coins in their stash could have been playing with the volumes and the prices on all exchanges. It could also be that the common folk together with institutional investors finally made up their minds and invested in bitcoin. There are a lot of reasons that can push these higher highs into reality, that it's no longer doubtful that we will be able to reach those price ranges that were once considered 'absurd' and improbable. The only thing that worries me is where will the money come from once the price for this particular cycle becomes too high? I'm pretty sure people have been asking this same question and I can't seem to find some compelling answers to that as of late.

Yeah but any blow off top would be very short lived, precisely because institutional demand is a game changer. Any crash at these price levels is going to be bought back in weeks. Right now we're missing the $300 million weekly Grayscale buys. Price is actually correcting right now, even if this correction lasted a couple weeks a sudden influx of a few hundred millions dollars weekly is going to stop that in its tracks, if other institutions haven't already stopped it well before then. And well this correction might just be another very short lived bear trap, but the above statements apply to any correction coming anywhere near these price levels, which really aren't very high given the demand that is out there.

I would say buying at 2013 and starting a newbie account now, does seem like not credible at all. By the way I am not against the idea, bitcoin is a volatile and decentralized currency with nearly unregulated market, at least a market that doesn't ban you from buying anytime you want or selling neither. It means we could literally have 8k or 80k in October, both of them are quite possible and nobody can say that it will be impossible, obviously speaking we will definitely have that.

What I do not really understand is that why do people have specific numbers, everyone throws out a number and I wonder why those numbers. For example, why 80k here? why not 110k? Why not 50k? Why specifically 80k? I live my life with two ideas, I either say bitcoin will go up, or will say it will go down, I rarely say it will go down. So that means for me, there is no specific number, it will go up, and it will be something more than what it is today, that's all I can say.

It's a guess. If you are day trading, swing trading, wanting to buy in low, wanting to sell eventually, or just thinking about what the market will do, you're gonna have some sort of number associated with that. I'd be a pretty boring comment forum if all we said was "bitcoin will go up" or "bitcoin will go down"!

lol.  You do know you can...click on someone's account and see when it was registered, right?  Also, you'll notice I never said I had credibility :D

If we go straight up from here, we hit the top of the logarithmic trend channel at about $70k.  Giving it a few more weeks to a couple months, plus the possibility of a slight overshoot, I think $80k is a decent target.

@thecodebear only time will tell.  I do believe that if we end up hitting the $70-80k range by Spring, the bull may have to go dormant for a while.  That just means a nice juicy accumulation zone around $20-40k until, maybe, the end of the year.

Nice words for a person who had been on this market earlier or in 2013.If you do see on how the market behaves for almost a decade then you would really be that off confident on how far bitcoin could go.
New ATH? Its still unknown because we are just still on 1st month of this new year but we are hitting and racking up new records for all time high's. It is even trying to break 40k resistance at the moment
on we are just $250 bucks away into that price.This is really getting more interesting but we shouldnt really forget that market wont really be rising up like forever.
Take advantage with these movements and gains and take up some strategy on how you would gonna utilize these volatility for your own benefit.

We are on a better position since the last bull trend on 2017 and right now, its so hard to tell how much the market can go because its totally go unpredictable. We can still expect more peak as the market continues the trend, I don’t know and I’m just buying and selling one at a time depends on my target profit.

I prefer to see bitcoin price meet a little correctiok after its price increase. Comparing to know that just up drastically and never meet a correction. The increasing price like now will be followes by the decrasing price a lot. You can imagine how many people do the panic selling when they guessed that the correction is coming they will sell their bitcoin to minimize the profit that they get. Also I just thinking that the economic situation and the pandemic situation has pushed the price of bitcoin always increase. If both situation gone, I believe there will be a huge decrease for bitcoin.

I like these speculation and if the momentum continues we might reach targets which were considered impossible in this short period of time but you need to understand that institutional investments is one of the major reason for the rally and you cannot predict when they will be booking their profit, once they start booking their profit, the market will come down drastically. Until then enjoy the perils of the rally and make sure you book your profit in time  ;).

We can only hold what they are saying, that they are not going to sell for years and so far it is true as they institutions continue to buy even at the high price fueling the market to a super fast rally that we have never expected.

Of course, sooner or later we will see the price decline, but it might be in the 6 digits. So everyone should watch out, make the right decision, or just do what others have been doing for many years, specially that invest what they can afford to lose, be a long term HODLer.

If bitcoin can hit $80k within 6 weeks, that means, the price will come to us in the next months, February or March, and if that really happens, that is a big surprise to us. But I wonder if the price increase to that price, how deep the bitcoin price will be down in the next correction because maybe many people will panic if the price start goes down to the lower price. If the price can increase step by step and not directly jump to the highest price, we can still make a profit from trading.

The mania is pretty much here already. If we were going up slowly it would be one thing but to go from $20K to $30K in 17 days and $30K-$40K in 5 days. Basically at this similar rate we will be having $10K moves every 2-3 days or so. Its not sustainable in my opinion. We might reach some top, like $50K and then consolidate for a few months and then again maybe break that ATH again.

However when markets are this erratic it means the top is near, at least a local top however nobody knows exactly when it will be. We all assumed $10K would be the top in 2017 and then we assumed it would be $20K which technically never touched.

So the top will be at a price that we all least expect it to be at, something like $42345 something very random.

what I'm wondering is Posts Like these mostly comes from Newbie accounts , and those accounts mostly have Gone for a certain time and just dropping now to Put Posts about the speculation of Prices . where have you been ?  ;D
Why afraid ? if the price is making ATH from time to time .
You predicted 100k but you are afraid? when you must be proud and happy because you are close to your predictions .

It is scary because everyone is getting greedy? If it ever dumps, then it will start to be massively bought again. This is bitcoin's truest nature, every institution doesn't want to let those sold coins.
I think most of us are. Scared and excited at the same time. To relieve your scare, you can take profits for relaxation.  :D

When it comes to bitcoin it is really hard to predict how the bull market will perform as the price would take us to new territories we earlier thought is impossible for a new market like bitcoin and that concept just hit me twice in the past as i had a valuation in mind that the price could rally but it breached those valuation by a big mile and even though the market went down drastically the highs were astonishing and this is the third rally i will be part even though i did not make much profit in the first rally as those were my baby steps in the market and i cannot predict exactly how long the market will rally.

All i know is i have the patience to see the rally and only plan on selling all my coins once i see the market is preparing for a huge sell off, till then i will be holding the rest of the coins.

At this point anything can happen, it seems the bears are making a pathetic attempt at trying to stop the bull run but they are not really achieving much as strong hands are still dominating the market and the drop we are seeing in the price is minimal, so I think 80k during the next six weeks is possible, however I wonder how long it will take FOMO to take hold as there is not much mention of bitcoin in the media.

Or maybe the media was given instructions to not cover bitcoin as widely as they did before out of fear that a run against fiat currencies could occur?

$ 50k has not been reached and we already want bitcoins to reach $ 80k?
this is not a good thing, I know a lot of traders now feel greedy, and that's a bad thing, so get rid of this attitude,
we have to go past $ 50k first if we want to get to $ 80k to $ 100k

The growth that occurred in 2017 was speculative, much of the rise was not logical and it was not correct growth as the corrections took place in less than a month.
Reaching the highest peak in 2021 will be faster than 2017, I expect by next May will be our new ATH, followed by very strong corrections.
ATH will be less than 80K$ which will be 70k$.

Will it really happen? growth in 2017 and now looks the same indeed this is speculative but this increase is significant in the short term, we even see btc crawling faster to 40k is this possible to happen to 80k for the next ATH in the middle of 2021?
We still have to analyze this correction, it is not impossible that a more severe decline will occur, but for sure ATH looks high, but after that we want it to be even higher, a little strange.

If you want to launch a space rocket then you need to build a good launchpad to take off from and before 80k or any other target I do think we need to resolve doubts, lose any sellers in the price action right now.   I'm going to be corny now but I see markets as natural or free motion in their movement, they never do what we want exactly they must have a balance of their own and a free market is a natural phenomena or it becomes rigid/fragile.   My point is the market moves in waves, not one solid take off straight to 80k and I dont think it does get there without pulling back just like every wave laps forward and backward.
  I hope BTC stays a natural market and is stronger for it, hence I think work is required and we're seeing part of that today.

we will see a shakeout in the 20's but I don't think 42K was anywhere near the next / this bull run's high.

As usual, you face too many risks upside converting to fiat, sure you could double your position on a 50% down, but you don't know when the 10 x of is coming and if you miss out waiting for the dip, then your 5x behind, never to buy in agian.

I don't really think it may go beyond the $50,000 USD and on what Bitcoin recently doing it may anytime burst like a bubble for a correction, I guess this is enough ATH for now well because the price is recently stable in going back and forth to $34,000 and $35,000 USD, well at the moment I really want to believe that but in my opinion, it is pretty had to conclude what may happen to the price it may sure go to $80,000 USD but it is still hard to assume for now and it may also become a bubble on sudden fall.

Though, i may not have much knowledge about the market but expecting 2017 market problem this year or the market to reach $80,000 seems lame and it astonished how people sometime predicted the market price.

With just using your own common sense then you can really point out that this market is way too unpredictable and there no way that you can know on what would be the prices ahead.

This is why we do see different numbers and some are way too unrealistic on how the hell they do able to reach off those things without even thinking on how hard we would able to reach out.

Though, we have just thought or just talked about on when 30k where others presume that this will happen on next year to come but it had able to breached in a matter of weeks
which do leaves out the impression that we might really be seeing 80k soon if this movement doesnt change but well we had seen that this wont really be an easy ride.

Everyone is free to predict the price of Bitcoin, the target of $ 80,000 to be reached as a new ATH in October 2021 looks like it could come true.
Because the beginning of 2021 alone has managed to reach a price of $ 41,000. Even though now it turns out that Bitcoin has experienced
a correction first. But I believe Bitcoin will be back on track in the near future, so take advantage of this correction to buy more Bitcoin. So if
the target $ 80,000 is reached in October 2021 we can make a huge profit.

I find it hilarious all the people saying we're not going to hit $50k.  Bitcoin doesn't just break a multi-year ATH and then piddle out at 2.5x.  Anyone who knows knows we're going to see 6 digits, probably this year.  The only question is whether it gets there like the 2013 chart, the 2017 chart, or something entirely new.  If this correction goes into multiple weeks, it will start to resemble 2017.  If this week closes green (personally I believe it will but I could easily be wrong), then the 2013 model is more in play.  I don't care either way, it's all upside since I did most of my accumulating under 20k  ;D

Anyone who doesn’t think we will see the Bitcoin price reach 50k should not be wasting their times on this message forum.   
Regarding the mentioned target price of 80k by 2021 will not be reached in my honest opinion but its always good when people remain Bullish is this now Bear market.

I would like to embrace the predicted value but it seems that $80,000 within this year is impossible. The logic is the more the price of Bitcoin will rise up is the more difficult for the small time investors to purchase that is why I see this value is unrealistic like McAfee predicted Bitcoin $1 million by the end of 2020. He even promised to eat his own dick if it doesn't. :D

$50,000 is so close for Bitcoin to reach. The surge ain't done yet, I believe that, because I don't see any dump yet. Instead, it's just market correction which is normal during bullrun.
There are still a lot of reasons for Bitcoin to continue it's run. Institutional investors, rich people, and even retail investors are still accumulating even with the current price range.
Let's just see how Bitcoin move in the next few weeks.

I laughed.

People who are very very bear about bitcoin are still a bit part of the market as well and also the forum. I do not agree with them, I think bitcoin will not be done anytime soon, and it is still recovering as well, there is no way bitcoin will be crashing to 3k-5k levels ever again, that is too far out and we are not going there.

However even if I do not agree with them, I do want them to write here whatever they want for two main reasons, one of them is the fact that we should hear what want to say, we should not silence people, if they want to say something about a price prediction, that shouldn't really be something to be silenced about, it is a tiny deal. Secondly I would want them to write because there are bear people in the market as well, people who short bitcoin too, so I would like to learn their perspective in order to know why they think that way.

I think we will first see a big dip before going for the $50k. It went up way too fast. We haven't seen a normal correction yet. The recent dip was recovered too fast to be seen as a correction.

It looks like the bitcoin drop happened yesterday which I think there will only be a few minor corrections so far.
and bitcoin movement is still normal and continues to pass new ATH for new higher ATH, the good price trend against bitcoin is very strong and we will see the next movement.

Seriously. Anyone who has been in Bitcoin since before 2017 understands that $50k is nothing and will be reached soon, and $80k should easily be reached this year as well. Very unlikely this year ends without seeing 6 digits.

My guess is we see something entirely new, neither like 2013 or 2017. Both of those were retail frenzy driven markets. I don't see a "quick" 80% crash coming and then a much higher double top leading to another long term 80% crash like in 2013. And I don't see an over-half-year run-up with a couple durable corrections followed by a huge blow-off top happening like 2017 either. It'll be something different, but the main theme of bitcoin booming will of course be the same.

I think we'll see less volatility now, with market growing larger and institutions providing a solid floor and more of a safeguard against huge corrections or crashes. I think we won't see the old type of hundreds of percent in a month followed by blow-off top. People already know about Bitcoin, so they will get in more gradually, not all at once when suddenly Bitcoin starts being mentioned in the media. They've known about Bitcoin for years now, so new retail money will be more gradual. They will still FOMO in at times and panic sell at times, but it won't be a single huge blow off top and then walking away for years. Plus institutions will slow down if they think a little bubble has been created and then can stack sats lower by just being patient, plus unlike retail investors, institutions are gonna be putting in fractions of a percent of their holdings at a time, not diving in with half their money, therefore the risks are lower, the bubble is smaller, and their is no need for them to panic sell during a drop to deleverage their position.

I laughed too! As long as there are people that think a two day drop is a bear market, there will be opportunities to take these people's money!

I always found the concept of peak- and bottom-calling ridiculous.

These bull markets occur when people are most irrational, and there is no way to predict with even remote certainty what the price will be in a few months time.

$80k is not out of the question, but with the current conditions trend reversals can be incredibly fast and prolonged.

I'd rather continue DCAing and holding for the long run. Ride out the short term volatility.

I have no power to silence anyone, even if I wanted to.  But OK, I will stop being a dick and let bears be bears  :D

There is some reasonable chance of this playing out, or it could literally be broken while I post this.  We all know Bitcoin loves triangles.  I don't think it changes my prediction much if at all.  Zooming out, the daily chart looks a lot like the weekly chart from 2015 into the beginning of 2017.

https://i.imgur.com/ehqTLJs.png

Edit: someone merit me, dammit  :D

Well, who knows whether it will surpass that point or not ?
Let's not Fomo about this matter buddy, let it gather the interest and let the market get steady then we can talk about 80k and beyond. Don't rush.

Things are so uncertain around the world that at this point any kind of prediction is possible, even if institutional investors are not putting as much money in bitcoin as they did when it was cheaper the fact that the governments around the world are still printing a lot of money thinking they are going to solve all of their problems by trying to stimulate the economy means that over the long term the price of bitcoin cannot do anything but to go up.

And if people begin to realize that the wealth that they had been saving in the form of fiat currency is diminishing at an alarming rate then they are probably going to try to do something about it and what better way to protect their wealth than to buy bitcoin? And if that were to happen a prediction of 80k is going to come up very short.

That's a very underrated response ;)

Most people that we went 3x from the ATH and think that was the bubble but it wasn't. There was a very similar move in 2017 when the price went from the last ATH of 1 thousand to 3. Then there was a correction because people thought that was it and a few months later it went parabolic.

The fact that we had no real drop and a dead cat bounce yet proves that we are going to see another pump.

Currently Bitcoin is still correcting, so this is a good time if anyone wants to buy Bitcoin. Many say the Bitcoin price increase that occurred earlier
this year is very similar to what happened in 2017. But I see the increase now is different from what happened in 2017. The increase in the price of
Bitcoin is now due to many institutions starting to invest in Bitcoin, so the price corrections are quite healthy, so it won't drop below $ 30,000.
Then to achieve the new ATH in October 2021 it can be achieved, for the $ 80,000 target it is not impossible to achieve.

I've heard the opinion that this is a bullish trap - too many people believe that 30k is now the bottom. And the whales may well sell Bitcoin above this level and then make a correction much deeper. I do not know how true this theory is, but it is quite logical.

Bitcoin is currently experiencing an upward trend in price. the end of this year may exceed all expectations. We have all seen the rise in the price of bitcoin at the end of 2013 and the end of 2017 was fantastic. now it is the start of 2021 and we are already seeing more upside opportunities. It seems that we will be surprised by the price increase every 4 years at the end of the year. Even though this year the highest bitcoin price was $ 37k, at the end of the year the chances of a bullish market will be even greater.

We will just let the price be it's price, we can't predict it's price to price or down too much since the target now of institutional companies are BTC and if it will help them alot to gain more profit in crypto if they can attracts more big companies. The price may set new ATH faster if these setup of companies Continuous.

Well, it's a new week.  Bitcoin doubled from ~10k to 20k in 10 weeks, and then doubled from 20k to 40k in the last 5 weeks.  Will the trend continue?  Who knows, but the chart looks bullish af.  I think we've got at least a leg to go before a serious correction.

Peace and love and hodling to all of you.

With them (Institutional investors) the price can go anywhere.

If they are here to bring more money the chance of seeing much higher value in a much shorter timeframe is indeed very possible, we can't exactly predict as the nature of this market still volatile. It will depend from how investors and traders react either way there's influence within the market whatever they've choose to follow.

Do we only depend on institutional investors? I think this is just speculation that it is clear that the whale holds more of the bitcoin that is held this can affect the price even fluctuating we know every company has now started to adopt but will the price still reach new ATH again?
We can probably guess the price will jump easily but we have to know what the real market conditions are and investors will still not panic when a crash occurs.

I think we've lost the momentum for this moment.   It is still positive just today rising on volume (https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/AreDW.png) above short term measures but Im not sure the pressure is still there, maybe it can regain it later for this kind of target.   Im thinking multiple years for the duration of the move not all at once in these months or in perfect sequence and just one direction.

At this moment things don't look smooth for bitcoin as it has gone through numerous corrections and we have seen sudden drop in the price, I don't think we can speculate much about Bitcoin's price or new ATH because even experts are unable to predict much due to volatility and if Bitcoin would have followed prediction then it wouldn't have touched $40k so early. I think next few weeks will decide the Bitcoin price for this year.

Let me reiterate once again that yeah your predictions may cime true as everything is possible let it be a worst dump or unexpected pump.

Actually we are already sold on where the price had able to hit up because we didnt even expect that it would reach 30k or even 40k.
If we moved sideways for some time then it would be better rather than seeing a market where it would be crashing into those prices
that we had seen in the past. Im not rushing on seeing 80k for this year which i do saw that it is way too high to consider.
Nothing can be predicted on where it would go.

Yes, such growth without serious rollback periods or +- stable prices is extremely unlikely. Bitcoin already has a huge capitalization, therefore, if such movements take place, then smoothly and with inevitable periods of correction, since bitcoin is already part of the world economy, and crises in it occur regularly.

Just a short term pause.

If it were a bubble pop, the market would have crashed 50% or more already. Instead, it's just hanging sideways in a bullish consolidation. Basically, it's coiling for the next leg up.

And after this length of consolidation, I'm no longer sure $50K will serve as significant resistance. The market's going to pop very hard after $42K is broken. Like the OP said, $60-80K looks possible before a larger correction.

I'm still holding out a little hope that bears will force another leg down to test $30K (it would just create an amazing bullish setup) but the chances of that are dropping with each passing day. The lack of bear momentum and the rounded higher low bottom forming on the 4-hour chart makes this look more like a sideways accumulation structure. The market wants to keep stair stepping up.

Ethereum makes an ATH and we're sitting here waiting for Biden's inauguration to break out of this triangle?  Silly bitcoin  ;D

lol. Just be patient. Before the last ATH's it was also boring with Bitcoin's value and suddenly out of the blue it went up that big.

It will go bigger for sure but I think it's now calming down a little. Just preparing for the next run.  ;)

We do not "depend" on the institutional ones but they are the ones that can make the biggest difference the question as well. I am not saying there is nobody else buying, without them we still have a lot of people buying, but they make a huge difference as well. Just to give an example before them we were toying the 10k levels, with them we broke over to 40k levels, did they took us there all of their own? Of course not, but could we say 14+ billion dollars spent on bitcoin all in the past 8 months didn't help? I wouldn't be capable of saying that.

So as long as they keep helping, as long as they keep buying, I am sure it is going to be fine, we are going to make a profit, but it is going to take a while before we can say that we can increase like this without them, that would require a lot more regular people to get into it if we are talking about tens of billions of dollars all bought during same period and not sold.

Yea $50k should act as a solid barrier with a possible correction, but now that we have gotten a solid correction not too far below it there is definitely the possibility it simply blows right on past $50k without too much of a struggle.

I'm still planning on selling a bit from my trading stash under $49k in case $50k causes a quick drop, but the longer this correction goes on the more fuel it's building for the next explosion upwards.

I've seen a lot of retail speculating (as well as articles in the media) that price is going to keep dropping, even saw an old acquaintance randomly tweeted "Bitcoin $20k by end of January" or something like that haha. There's gonna be a lot of retail investors caught off guard, probably by end of this month, when Bitcoin is pushing new ATHs, and they are gonna be buying back in in the $40,000s when they expected to buy back in at half that price, but they are gonna find a lot less supply on the market than there was even a month earlier. Could definitely see price going over $60k before another real correction, with maybe just a pitstop for a few days under $50k.

There are so many coins out there already create a new ATH. We all see many old projects and solid projects. This is a good sign for the crypto community. And I'm so sure that the real ATH for the coin is still not come. Let's see how high Bitcoin and altcoins can do this year.

I am one of the few that don't expect a replay of 2017, because back then there's hardly an institutions that's backing Cryptocurrency, there are so many FUDS back then and they are all waiting for the bubble to burst, the scenario now is very much different, the momentum is long lasting it could even last for a year, I hope it happens.

Yes this momentum is keep on going which is a record in crypto industry but I don't think it may long last till the end of the year because we know how the Market works and we can't expect the price high after this big pump which happened couple of days ago .

Also institutional investors may come often and go but those who hold for long-term are only the pillars of BTC I mean for the price pump.

And that wont really be sustaining when we do talk about price pump and we know that there would really be sell off and just like what others said that we cant just see a market that do continously
grow and reach up heights in a short span of time because that would really be an indication that the market is already on the fomo or manipulative side of things.

Just be patient and dont rush up because time will really come when we are already on the full adoption scale.People are just to optimistic towards the price when they do saw
that everything is already in greens.They should realize on what reality looks like or else they would really get frustrated
when the market goes to the opposite direction as they anticipated.

I don't see Bitcoin reaching such price with the current price this month and $80k is just too much IMO. But speculators are expecting a $100k or $200k, I don't know what they were thinking but that's just too much to be expected to happen this year. Maybe another halving again Bitcoin might achieve that price but for now, the highest Bitcoin is trying to break is a $43k which isn't happening yet.

That's really huge but who knows, most of us also didn't expect that after breaking the last time high value can be double that quick.
If most speculators are eyeing for this price there might be a reason behind.

Saving Bitcoin is what matters now, sparing those money that you are not really needed to spend, keeping it inside your crypto wallet and
keep an eye with what will happened in the next few months.

We don't know what more surprises are coming, though we already seen some glimpse of
the big potential that this investment will to us, keep your trust and believe.

@Luthier, and what if the markets don't go as you predicted?
What if it doesn't happen like 2017? I believe there are so many hopes which are bound by the unexpected yet enormous growth of BTC's price but markets have bearish institutions too as everyone likes to have a position which could liquidate their rivals (don't tell me institutions don't leverage). I'm waiting for such moment to come because then, all these predictions will become invalid till a new pump takes place. I still see BTC getting under $30k at least once before starting its rally back upwards.

Reason behind? Yes, there are actually a lot of reasons behind.
One of the top reasons are the institutional investors and big names were stacking Bitcoin. As we all can see even with the high price, there were still an accumulation happening, because $35,000 or even $40,000 may not be consider expensive in the future. Also, there are still a lot of bullish predictions coming from these big company and individuals  in the financial industry eyeing the $100,000 price for Bitcoin.

That prediction might sound crazy, but isn't the rally from $15,000 to $43,000 also a crazy bullish run?

Since its price bitcoin at tens of thousands dollars, it is  natural  that you  predict it to reach  $80k in  October this year. Moreover,  bitcoin has
touched $41k, so people’s  expectations were  higher for the price of bitcoin  in the days and  months to come. And  indeed bitcoin has  always
experienced price increase from the beginning appeared until now. But for me maybe soon bitcoin will reach $50k first before going to the price
of $80k. It must reach at least $60k first.

It's too fast to predict the Bitcoin price, and I'm not sure your prediction will correct. I just keep in my mind that Bitcoin will reach it, but no specific date. Keep holding it is a good decision until I found a very high price.

If you still hold your Bitcoin, you already earn so much profit

Great to hear that, how much money that you can pay to buy one bitcoin at that time? Do you still hold it? If you do, you will be someone who has a lot of money now. At least you will have more than one bitcoin if you bought 2013 ago, right?  I always tell to someone who just know to bitcoin that I regretted that I didn't know bitcoin before 2015, because if I know it maybe right know I'll have a lot of money.

As for the price prediction, I don't know exactly what will happen. Although, you are an expert to predict bitcoin like you know the technical and fundamental analyst works but I'll stand that your prediction can't be fully trusted. Some people know who give exactly prediction like bitcoin will have $100.000 and etc they only use the history. Yeah just history, whilst we don't even know what will happen in the future because I bet there will be a different situation.

I see more and more calls for Bitcoin crashing in the media and on the internet as this consolidation continues. Despite continued massive institutional buying of Bitcoin. I guess that's why we see the consolidation continuing for now - the mass market is scared it's gonna crash. They are always so panicked at any downward price movement haha. Which will only fuel the next rise (coming soon) as all these people that are selling, expecting a big bear market or whatever, are forced to buy back in at ATHs when they realize they played the wrong side of things.

The latest signs that we'll be at ATHs soon:

1. a Deutsch Bank survey just said people think Bitcoin's price is more likely to halve than double in the next year, and rated Bitcoin a 10 out of 10 for being in a bubble haha. Meanwhile institutions are sucking up all their cheap Bitcoin they've been selling!

2. Guggenheim CEO or whoever, who is waiting to pass regulatory hurdles to get their half billion dollars into Bitcoin, said the peak for the year is already in and it'll be $20k soon.

When loads of people who aren't in the market or already sold are trying to convince everyone else that the price is about to crash...in the middle of a bull run...that's a surefire sign to BUYYYYY!

^^ Exactly, as I have said previously, we are in the period of consolidation. And then we have the bitcoin future contracts worth billions set to expire in the end of the month. And after that we might see new all time high. As far as the negative news created by social media, yes, this is a sign that they wanted to bring the price down so that they can buy bitcoin at a cheap price. We have seen this kind of strategy before and for sure we all know what's coming.

Definitely not this month, when it clearly has seen a lot of people take profit above $40k and wanting to buy the dip again below 35k. Speculators looking at 100k? Yeah, sounds possible, but they shouldn't be expecting it any time soon, I would say not even this year, because there are many, many stops along the way.

Bitcoin still in the bull run though, indicates a breakout move out of the triangle pattern and move above the $40,5k then it may surpass $45k by the end of this month and probably surprise us in February to reach even higher within $50k-$60k. However, bitcoin price drops 10% in the last 24 hours as the price drop slightly below $32k as the whales showing a potential sell-off on Coinbase.
"It seems $BTC sellers came from #Coinbase. Coinbase Premium Index has been a negative value since an hour ago," Ki Young Ju, CEO of on-chain analytics resource CryptoQuant. source (https://cointelegraph.com/news/why-did-bitcoin-fall-below-33k-coinbase-whales-might-have-the-answer)

With the current price we have now it would take a lot of time and yeah I also think that $80k is quite far honestly. The market may be still in a rally but I'm expecting that the price will only end at $50k but who knows market was still unpredictable after all and I don't think institutions are done getting their stash. We will definitely hit those prices but the real question is when. I also think that those speculations might happen on the next halving, I guess.

The fact that many investors take profit is good, it is bad that with such a deep pullback, many investors appear who are at a loss. Moreover, some of them will be forced to fix it, since they initially entered for a short period and expected rapid growth. As for traders, I don't feel sorry for them  ;D

Unfortunately these falls happen too many times and when you are stuck at one place and fail to go to any direction, price tries both sides very frequently to see where it will go, so far going down has been a lot more frequent, we have see 32k and lower many times whereas we haven't seen 40k+ all that much, if I am not wrong it happened only once or twice whereas 32k and lower happened 4 times already. This told the market that we are easily going down if we want to but failing to go up even if we try hard, and market saw this and said "screw it" and got out, look at the price falls that happened very recently.

So, I feel like this is a decent drop, I do not know if we are going to be 40k+ once again, but I know that we are not going to go there that quickly and will require a decent sized drop before it happens so that people could accumulate and gather ammo for a fight at higher levels.

As I said in topic 2 weeks ago, the rise to a price like $80k is not going to happen in weeks but also it won't be more than a year like you are suggesting here. $80k and $100k are not really big price targets, we were seeing much bigger rises in the first quarter of 2017, if anything it should be bigger this year with all the attention bitcoin is receiving from institutional investors.

The good part is that, the ones who took out their profits now have cash to go back in if they want to, that is a good thing because having money would help all of us right now, we could all buy and help us. However one more thing is true, the ones who bought at 35k+ prices must be feeling bad right now, and that is not really a good thing for now, those people could do some help for us as well, if they have more money they should buy from current price as well, which would allow them to drop their buying averages lower and they would be capable of using that lowered entry point to profit a lot more later on.

So, as you can see a drop could be a great thing if you look at it from the optimistic side, both the profited ones and lost ones could get together and buy so much that they could increase it 40k+ very easily. However will it be like that? I do not know.

I guess bitcoin will not move that high if we will not experience a big correction first.
The institutional money is already their but we always see this market to dump big time after a bull run, and i think this year is no exception.

$80k - $100k might be big for now but once the price is on uptrend movement, we will forget we have thought of that.

Thing is, it's just in our mind, we forget that bitcoin is based on supply and demand so price has no limit.

Personally, I think less of a consolidation than a finding out of the true bottom. Not sure in any past rallies if Bitcoin's ever retraced to a previous ATH (I don't think so) but this one could actually see sub 20k if the bears make a concerted effort... but the resulting bounce would be spectacular.

Consolidation will happen, but only once Bitcoin's found its feet and its floor.

Don't get too excited, we don't know if Bitcoin can reach new ath again at $ 80k in October 2021 or even back to $ 10k?
Don't let the mistakes in 2017-2018 happen again, the bull market is shorter than the bear market. remember it!
If you have a lot of capital, buy gradually when the correction comes, $ 29k to $ 26k is a good time to buy it

I expect it to reach around 100 thousand dollars towards the end of this year when I look at my own analysis. It is not very difficult to reach, actually I trust my analysis

That's right but don't let your hopes too high or that much because it will just frustrate you once bitcoins price wont able to reach up your expectations.

100k is a long way to go and this would really be a very bumpy ride.We might able to reach 40k ETH but doesn't mean that we would easily reach those numbers in no time.

Try to look that we are now stabilizing at the moment and we do even had a hard time on breaking 40k, it might not still a very long time but we can already presume that
this might be already the tough resistance that we might be facing on future years to come.

100k isn't really to far off because we do almost reach on the half line but expect that this wont come easy.

Interesting.

I do think that we're already in the consolidation stage right now. The $30k support has been tested, but I do feel that prices can go down to even the $20k zone before another run up occurs.

The good thing is that short term speculators with weak hands will be flushed out by this. But people do need to realise that just because BTC isn't rallying on a day to day basis, doesn't mean that we're no longer in a bull market. The sentiment is still overwhelmingly optimistic, and with much more strengthened fundamentals this time, it will be hard to see the bull market not stretching out for 1-2 years (which is why traders shouldn't expect daily action in the first place).

The difference between 2017 and today doesn't stop with that only, we also do have altcoins increase in fiat amount a lot as well whereas in 2017 alts were almost dead and had a huge increase AFTER bitcoin dropped, now we see ethereum going from 200 to 400 to 700 to 1000 to 1400 dollars back to back.

Everyone is feeling the big increase but that is the hype we have, right now everyone is in bull mode and even with the fall we are not letting it go down anymore and working hard to keep buying even when it is going down. However do not forget that the feeling of hype existed in 2017 as well, what happened was price went down and some people left, it went down a bit more and more people left, and it we.. well you get the point, the more price falls the less people stands in hype and eventually it crashes. So just because that hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it will never happen.

So, is this prediction still on since we have been a major move today as far as the price goes?

As others have pointed out, in the last three weeks, it seems that bitcoin is on the consolidation phase and now we have seen the break out run that we are all been waiting for. Next target for this rally is $40k-$50k now, easily achievable within the next week or before the end of February if FOMO will sets in again.

19% increase now, bitcoin heading to $40k again, maybe this time it will finally succeed to have a new ATH again.

Very bullish today, maybe we have to thank DOGECOIN for creating a FOMO in the market?
DOGE still the most profitable today with 400% increase.  ;D

True that bitcoin already raise tripple of its value within few months & has the incredible things done what was think impossible a years ago.but i can't expect so much from bitcoin like $80k or $100k within this year.know that wouldn't be impossible for btc to hit the milestone you mentioned but actually it already pump huge and time is not for far when the bitcoin market would crash anytime. although a year later, there would be correction & btc would hit another milestone, i believe but not this year

It could be possible if there will be more demands from bitcoin, the $100k might not be possible this year but possibly years ahead when there will be more adoption for the community. Anyone thinking about this figure ($100k and above) should consider bitcoin as an asset in it early stage, more years achievement will prompt bitcoin price to hit the amount in future.

I am optimistic that if nothing happens, at least we are going to experience minimum of 100k BTC this year. Institutions are coming in and adoption is increasing. God year for digital currencies.

A reasonable point of view, I agree with you. If everyone reasoned just as calmly, then perhaps bitcoin would have less volatility and smoother growth)  Now the crowd is either too optimistic and waiting for unrealistic growth levels, or pessimistic and ready to short because it is waiting for a collapse.

With Bitcoin price currently still at $ 34k, it looks like it will be tough in the next 6 weeks to hit the $ 80k target. I analyzed the movement of
Bitcoin which yesterday went up to a price of $ 37k and is now down again to a price of $ 34k. This means Bitcoin is still struggling to get back
to its $ 40k price tag.

But the next 6 weeks is enough time for Bitcoin to return to the ATH price again. So just HODL your Bitcoin. Then regarding the new ATH in
October 2021 it is very possible if Bitcoin's performance is like today. Moreover, more and more institutions are interested in investing in Bitcoin,
so it's not too difficult to reach the new ATH in October 2021.

optimism is certainly needed for everything we will do, as well as the increase in bitcoin.
If you look at the first and second halving, the% that happens is quite large, is this what makes the OP predict things like that and maybe others too.
but actually let bitcoins increase, but don't let altcoins lag behind because bounties also need altcoins to reach ATH.

I'm sorry people, I let you down.  It looks like my prediction will happen one or two weeks later than expected.  Once again, I'm terribly sorry.

If we analyze the bitcoin movement, your prediction probably right. I believe that is not hard for Bitcoin to reach $8K in October, and if we are lucky that October 2021 already reaches 100K. Buy and Hold.

Man, this is the weirdest bear market I've ever seen.  Huh.  I guess I'll just keep hodling.  ???

LOL, on a serious note.  I did accumulate a significant amount during that 3-week dip, and also diversified more heavily into ETH (sorry guys) once I saw that ETH/BTC broke a big resistance level.  It appears we have now achieved liftoff.

Good for you, and with the whole crypto sphere going crazy about Elon and Tesla investing a huge part of their assets to BTC, I think we are still in track of the $80k this October right?

For ETH, no biggies, you do what you have to do, ETH also surpasses it's ATH and still growing as of this time. But for BTC, this is really a good and welcoming news for us, I reckon that in short them, it's possible to hit $56k with all of this FOMO.

I think you misunderstood me my friend.  My original prediction was for $70-80k 6 weeks from when I posted this on January 7th.  That would put it at 10 days from now, on Feb. 18th.  Not impossible, but not terribly likely either.  I think it may take one or two more weeks.  If that happens, I do believe the market might enter a consolidation phase without breaking the ATH again until October-ish.  But after that, $200k would not be impossible.

I think we will have a continues prediction this year because the market has no plan in stopping the surprises , Imagine today we reached another ATH at 46,000$? damt thats a too high amount.
The past 4 weeks actually , But now we Have broken the 45,000$ so lets see what happens this Whole week since we are just starting  ;D

Too high that it will soon break to $50k, this is a remarkable price because people does not believe that $100k is achievable, but when we are at over $50k, things would be easier. Remember, we reach $20k and we did not expect to see a double of price at that ATH.


It all fueled by tesla's announcement, they are the reason why it pump and they are also the reason why this market could probably dump, if you know what I'm saying.

That idea that people think 100k is possible is the most important thing that came out of this situation. We are still more than 100% away from being 100k, so it is not an easy task but the fact that people actually believe it could happen do mean a lot to me. I personally believe that 100k is possible as well, I have bitcoins and holding it (very low amount but still happy about it) and I think it is quite important that crypto people think 100k is something we could do without a problem, it means a lot.

Of course, it is not going to be simple and we need to keep grinding on it, but we still have a path there and have the belief that we can get there, in order to reach a price first we need to believe that it is possible and realistic, all those talks about a million dollars is still unrealistic, even 100k was unrealistic last year but now it looks so possible. This means a lot.

No, I totally understand your point, you posted it when we are still in the super fast rally, and then we went into a period of consolidations. But with the current hype of Elon Musk and his Tesla, we could at least hit $56k-$60k. And if you remove the consolidation phase in your prediction, we might as well be in the $70k-$80k at least.

A good $50k'ish wont be bad though till Feb 18th right? And then we work on till $70k-$80k as you predicted.

Absolutely good news if 50k is still in March. This rally is bigger in terms of dollar amount so naturally, it will take a longer time but the other good thing for me is it's not going up super crazy (ok except for days like Elon's pump) because we all know when it goes up so fast in percentage the fall is even harder and more painful to deal with later on.

Yes, the whole idea of pump and dump in bitcoin market is not good in my opinion, as we have seen in the past. And as the price inches closer to $50k the growth will have to slow down, that is the economics of the market and it's better to see the price going in it's natural path and not going super crazy except if there is really a good news and many are in the FOMO state. But the effect, specially for newbies will be harder and painful if the prices goes on a dramatic crash.

I just wanted to tell that even though bears are almost always wrong, we get to have fun about it anyway :D. So, let's say there are some bear people who say bitcoin will be 1k in 6 months, I check their topic and I see 100 people writing how wrong that person is, which is quite frankly incredibly funny. Which is exactly why I want to see these type of topics, that makes things a lot easier and fun.

But if one day a bear says it will be 10k and everyone agrees? That means market sentiment has changed and bitcoin will be very low in the near future. So bears are not always right, and not only we should let them speak, but we just see what the market response to them is, if people suppose them, maybe it is time to sell your coins as well. Otherwise in times like these? Bears are just things we have fun with.

They will certainly experience that pain if they will not be careful when riding.

The idea is bad if they think that buying at this time is good for long term hold, they'll experience the market crash and that might affect the way they think on the future of bitcoin once the crash will start, in here, we call that correction but since they are new, they'll call it a market crash with a worry that the market will not anymore recover.

The bears, I guess, hibernated.  Whenever the market is healthy for a strong rally and good psychological support, it will be the right space for this moving trend.  With a strong breakout, this week bitcoin moves and occupies between 47k and 49k $, which would be a pity if $ 50k is removed for a new peak.  Exactly what the wait made me suspect.  Elon Musk has become the focus of this picture.  So maintain and be patient.

If it is self-characteristic motivates an excitement. I think there are no more points to buy that are worthy of the slide. $ 50k has soon hatched for today after a week of shortening the range. Not just Tesla and Elon, it's natural to be happening earlier. All good things :))

Whether or not now is a good time to buy will depend on what level grows new ATH. If it turns out that the market collapses after ATH is at the level of $ 0- $80k, it is actually a bad time. However, if the price rises to $300k, it will all depend not on whether someone buys now, but when they sell it.

$300k, I can't imagine it happening now, we saw how bitcoin reach $50k but I think it will not easily reach $100k, so $300k is just too much this year. I don't want to be extra bullish when the market is already bullish, I'm learn my lessoned in the past, it's not good, unless your are a day trader.

If you have to look at the @fillippone thread, Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5191012.0), the first target will be $55,000, which I think is doable.

Then we have the $100,000 prediction if the model follows the 2017 bull run. Or $288,000 if it follows the 2013 bull run. So there's a lot of scenario and prediction, but I like what I'm seeing based on S2F model more than other so called experts out there.

Thanks for pointing to my thread. Please bear in mind that Stock to Flow is not a model for trading but only to assess bitcoin long term value and large swings from market value are possible.
So use it for hodl, not for day, or even medium term trading.

I have to say winter is the best month they love so much. Most of the time it is the winter that causes bear to start and spring that makes it go back up a bit more, that was at least the case in many years before, and for example in 2018 winter we have seen that 20k become under 12k price by march as well, suddenly dropped nearly 50%+ in just 2 months.

In any case I believe all these huge rallies and new purchases and many other things did triggered the price to be something much better and that hasn't stopped yet, we still have a lot of situations like that going on right now and I do believe that it will impact very well for us as long as they keep buying and this drop will not come any time soon as long as they continue to do this. All we need is this bull buyers to keep buying and specially the big companies.

Of course the scenarios can be different. This is what I meant in my earlier comment. For someone who buys now and the bull run will end up at $70k and won't sell, it will be a bad time to buy, but if the optimistic scenario is right, buying now is a very good time. It all depends on what we believe. Actually as in any investment.

Don't buy big capital at a price of $ 50k, a bad scenario could dump up to a strong support of $ 20k - $ 22k,
it would be terrible to see the dump price to the bottom, yes it is a bad scenario, so remember not to be greedy if you have achieved profits ,
we have entered the bullish season but a big correction occurred, because the bullish path must always be filled.

In February we reach $50K, so in October is makes sense if Bitcoin reaches $70K-$80K. I don't say that this will come true but your prediction is relevant. Maybe for some people, this is important but for me is not truly important. I will keep buying as much as I can, and keep HOLD it until my target reaches

More than $70k-$80k in my opinion, bitcoin is really moving into the best asset right now, more than gold. And Gold price compare to bitcoin is going down, while we are up to $51k and counting. So we might be on the way to 6 digits at the closing of the year. Good for HOLD'ers, just continue to stack sats because we are going to get a big surprised in the next coming months. As more money are going to come in the market, big money specially from companies and institutions.

With this current setup, there are many institutional investors who are venturing to this market. Seeing best potential growth they are now starting to realize how big  this asset will turned to. I'm sure that those known names will not risk their invested money and their own name for the sake of nothing, they are here to play business and to start venturing and grinding the big possibilities of more money to bank around.

Knowing those influencial people and their characteristics, they are here for business and from that point, those who follows them will also going to follow their investment. Continue being positive and allow things to happened while you are holding your assets, who knows how far in can grow. Best of luck hodlers!

Thanks for clearing that up as well, I forget to include it in my previous post. And yes, this model is not for short term but rather for HODLers out there. And so far so good, but I will admit that I'm a little hesitant when I saw it the first time. But now it seems that the model is perfectly creating a long term scenario leading to 6 digits price of bitcoin in the next coming months.

Short term goal though looks very easy to us, $60,000-$80,000 in the next three months.

I think we're closing to hit this prediction.

The price is closing to $55K and seeing the price still going strong for sure, we will hit $60K. Although we don't know when all we know is that there are a lot of new interests going around to some known investors that might push further the price that might even reach the price this year at $100K. Seeing the price and this prediction is so nice.

We already crossed $50k and it is hard to predict on which direction it will take in the next few months. The news coming out right now are great and the market is responding along with that and i have seen the past rallies and when ever the price rallies we always hear great news and once the market turns to red then all the complaints start to follow. I am not investing like you when the price rallied this much but waiting for the correction  if i ever invest again.

Recently, I never hear any bad news or FUD about Bitcoin, and if continue like this $80K is easy to reaches, No need to wait until October maybe we can reach it faster. I see many market corrections of Bitcoin, but the price easily continues growing. So potential to reach $80 is easy before October

You've missed it.
Bitcoin at $50,000 “Unsustainable,” Says JP Morgan (https://cryptobriefing.com/bitcoin-at-50000-unsustainable-says-jp-morgan/)
Bitcoin Crosses $52,000 After JPMorgan Calls Current Price 'Unsustainable' (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-crosses-52-000-jpmorgan-212250247.html)

Well they can't really stop this bull run even if they created FUD like what JP Morgan is saying here. On the contrary, bitcoin continues to go up to $52k and we see it as sustainable as this could just be the beginning towards $80k-$100k before the end of the year. And I'm sure people are getting tired hearing this kind of FUD that most of the time it hasn't had any effect as compare to previous years.

So.  It's been 6 weeks today and obviously we are not quite in range of $70-80k yet, but I'm happy I was correct on the general direction.  Currently sitting just below the ATH of ~$52,500.

In the last 6 weeks a lot of things have crystallized and become more clear about this 2021 bull run, though the future remains anything but certain.  So far, judging by the speed and trajectory, it is somewhere between the steep run-up in the first half of 2013, and the slower grind upwards throughout 2017.

One thing is reasonably for sure, this upward momentum is far from over, and it's starting to look like although we're not at $80k yet, we may hit $100k much sooner than I originally thought.  One clue for this can be found in altcoins.  Take LTC for example, which is now sitting at about 65% of its ATH.  I would be absolutely shocked if BTC tops out in this bull cycle with LTC not making a new ATH.  I would put that possibility at less than 10%, and furthermore I find it extremely unlikely that LTC would not hit at least $1k before BTC peaks, probably much higher.  Other strong alts are also sitting below ATH, with ETH only recently passing its old high.

Another piece of the puzzle is the growing institutional FOMO, and then there are more stimmy checks coming probably late March in the US.  All in all I can see upward pressure pushing us through an insane March and April, with $100k easily on the table. 

$55k the highest that we've seen it today. It's true that they can't stop bitcoin's bull run this time. Unlike before, when we're in the bull run, with one FUD, the market reacts so fast.
We can't wait for bitcoin to see for the first time $100k in history. I'm sure that many are waiting for that price and would fill their sell orders and regardless of FUD that comes out, bitcoin remains to be stronger.

Well there is something that I have learned about the FUD, when there is bad news and a lot of FUD that gives me an indication to buy, on many occasions I have said it, bad news = purchases, and I see it from the point of view of market speculation, Strong Hands when they want to buy, it would not hurt some bad news to cause general panic and weak hands sell. Although currently some announcements from very influential people such as Elon Musk, Paypal, Microstrategy have made their Bitcoin purchases known, this moves people's emotions, causes more confidence, which means that the growth in price is more liquid, that is, in crypto anything is possible.

That is the thing right now, with all of those influential people and institutions, each of their words becomes wisdom and signal depending how you look at it.
And the strategy that you have learned, it's what some other people have learned as well. You're right that when there were FUD in the past, that's an indication of buying and it truly hurts the market but this time, looks like it's weaker.

This is becoming into reality, the way the price is moving it seems like this prediction is even so conservative.

We are just in the 2nd month of the year but bitcoin looks to achieved $60,000 already, this is insane, I thought the prediction was unrealistic but I was wrong, congrats OP for a nice analysis, looks like you are right.

Yes, apparently the market now things are going through the type of circumstances, some theoretical bases may not occur when there are other types of events, currently the world is governed a lot by social networks, by influencers, by people who move masses and these they have many followers. I think this can all be summed up in: "Emotions", the market is now moving by action of it. The good news is having a positive influence thanks to institutions, companies and important people, every day is a new learning.

We've been in bad influences before and the market deserves to have that good influences from those prominent people. And we know who they are, we've got a lot of idea who they really are and serious with the market.

Yeah, looks unreal if we'll look at it but it's for real this time and that's most of us are happy looking at it.

I have this thinking about this thread, and of course according to the little I have learned, the market at the moment is going through a moment in which thanks to important characters it has caused a great pump or bullish trend, and it is very easy to determine it, for me What is happening is that the market is currently influenced by emotions, and emotions move the market, that explains the massive purchases, apart from the institutions that are doing it, at the same time there must be many who are selling.

There are already many who are waiting for it to reach $ 100k to sell, I mean, the expectation is very great, and this is given to the emotions that are on the surface.

I think the market is influenced more on the institutions or companies that are now showing their interest to venture in crypto by accepting crypto as their payment system or by buying bulk number of BTCs in the market. So this is the real deal here, I believe a lot of merchants are now accepting that volatility will always be there, so it is how they will manage their crypto here to avoid their losses that they are talking about. But right now, from the looks of it, 80k is very possible to happen this year.

There has been a couple of FUDs in this bull run, make no mistake. You just haven't been looking hard enough. Off the top of my head:

Tether FUD, which alleges that the price was artificially inflated by issuing inadequately unbacked USDT to purchase bitcoin all throughout the bull run to create scarcity, essentially centralizing Bitcoin.

Double Spending FUD, which turned out to be a nothingburger altogether. And a few more FUDs you'll have to look for yourself. Despite being, you know, all false and unsubstantiated, these FUDs actually managed to drive the price's trajectory down to the support line of $30-33K.

I agree about the selling order are being prepared @ $100k. I'm sure to see a lot of holders dumping at that price. If others have dumped at $10k, $20k, $30k, $40k and $50k.
What's more if it bitcoin finally hits $100k.

We reach $57k mate.


Yes, prediction model base on 2017 bull run is $100k.
While 2013 model points us to a higher price $288k


I can't say about LTC but for bitcoin, yes this bull run is unstoppable and can continue up to the end of the year and we will see what prediction model will repeat this year, 2013 or 2017.


Big companies and institutions are what driving this bull run and then we have FOMO. Speaking of stimulus package:

https://twitter.com/bitcoinstimulus

$1200->$10k now if those who received put it on BTC.

I think it this is basically the "proof" of there which makes us to assume that no price that bitcoin can't reach, it could literally be anything , all we need is time. Sure when you look at it today, bitcoin being 1 million dollars per bitcoin looks very hard and very difficult, however one thing is for sure, bitcoin is not looking to break 1 million "today", that doesn't mean that in 10-20-50 or whatever year it will not be that high, it will definitely be high enough to reach those prices one day.

So, that means there is really not a price in the world bitcoin "can't" reach and no matter how many topics he starts, he is going to be "right" temporarily and never will be right permanently :D. That is at least what I think about bitcoin and if I am right (I hope I am right) that means having more and more bitcoin constantly would mean a lot and you could literally be rich eventually if you wait long enough.

bitcoin surprising keep breaking each old ath landmask that was recorded recently.people are become crezy to buy bitcoin and their capital makes bitcoin on fire.even elon mask already bought bitcoin that already draw people Attension! Thus bitcoin already able to gather lots of investors who love to buy bitcoin.market condition is not so good right now but hope will be recovered soon & btc would hit the $80k landmark maybe within a month cause that won't hard for btc

It's like this friend, just remember those times where nobody believed that Bitcoin was going to reach 1000USD, then $ 10k, just for now I would like to see a very round $ 100k and that it remains in that price range, to know that it will cause a lot more commotion in people like Schiff, in some entities like the FED, as you say, in Crypto everything is possible, just the fact of having at least a fraction of Bitcoin will mean a lot of money, a lot of value, some economists, analysts who are against Bitcoin will not hesitate to say and affirm that it is a bubble (They will never learn) I think that this year we can see a great price of Bitcoin, new ATH, with reaching $ 100k being.

The correction in January was 30%, this one so far is 22%.  I see $42k as quite likely, with anything above $35k remaining uber bullish.  I don't believe we will have more than 1, maybe 2 weeks of red here.

Meaning you have been having your bitcoin 8 years now ? oh common  ;D  you are not watching the market but you are buying and selling your bitcoin.

I find it stupid to assume that early adopters like you keep the holding after 2017 Hype , and it is much harder to believe that you keep holding after price reached 50,000$ early this year.

But of course i will respect your decision but don't expect me to believe that it is.

Same for me hodling since 2013. Should have bought and mined more  :P

With a lot positive for the market going on, I think that we can hit $80k this year but October is not the specific month that it will reach that, it may reach it too earlier than October or it might be later than October. I do agree, that decline won't be much but we should be ready for that because that could be an opportunity to earn some profits and get some more bitcoin for our long term investment.

If we are not going down into huge correction we might see the $80k this year.

Market seems to be in correction mode now, the bullishness of crypto is slowly vanishing and if indeed the price will dump, it might dump more even going back to $20k or less. My prediction maybe could be wrong but based on the past movements, you know that it's gonna happen.

The price of 80k dollars per bitcoin is really possible to happen because we expecting more of it. Maybe in the middle of the year or June that value they have chance it will going to hit that. Another New ATH will happen this year to the bitcoin because community of the crypto continue grow and that is very good news for us and hope that it will continue to happen because that is one our dream too to become higher the value and to know of more people.

So meaning both of you are still Holding since 2013 ?

Common man seriously ? have not tempted to sell off recently ? when the price rose up to 58,000?

or even when the price went up in 2017 ATH of 20,000?

More people to learn this market more chance to continue the rise, it's very possible indeed
if there are more addition with investors that will bring decent amount of investment and
aim for long term success, maybe in terms of time frame it's tough to make a call as currently
there's correction which shaking the entire market. Weak holders may follow this market movement
and sell out with loses.

Yup I held through through those dips. So went through the emotional “I’m fucked, will it ever recover” cycle quite some times.
My funds all safely offline to prevent hacks and exchanges going bust.

Recently I bought for $2500 and sold a bit of the $25k it became. In effect making all my Bitcoin endeavors forever profitable. For me it’s money I never missed and I’m only getting out partially when set for life.

Even without Bitcoin I’m in peak financial position.

I’ve always viewed it as a lottery ticket, not as spendable money...
But yes it’s accumulated nicely ... have plans to actively gain more this cycle...

That's very inspirational, I hope someday my I have a good source of income that I will be able to hold my bitcoin earning for longer term. It's good to invest but it's bad to just risk everything in bitcoin without having savings in life, that's what I learn so I'm working hard to be able to invest easily.

Buy at the bottom... in about 15 months. E.g. 1 BTC @ 35k
Forget about it for 10 years and it should have gone up and down like
35k -> 1M -> 200k -> 5M is within those 10 years... 5M is a low estimate

58k -> 46k -> 35k -> 20k -> 10k -> 11k -> 5k -> 3k -> 4k -> 1k -> irrelevantcoin (2023)

I'll throw you some pennies from my G650

I wish I had never stopped mining for at least two years after it appeared to be not that profitable.   That relies on having a really bullish outlook which I lacked overall, not that I was negative but I cant say I knew for sure the direction and way price goes lax sometimes then peaks like just recently.
  That said I dont think its certain to go onto 80k this year, I do think these bigger estimates require time and higher prices need a broad base to reach higher.    I hope as previous Im bullish on ascending lows, the peak frothy action is much harder to call and its erratic.

I stopped thinking mining 0.02btc a day on a GPU wasn’t worth it.
$1000 a day in today’s money....

Looking at the charts I think that 90k stable is easily achieved. 190k-220K top but that will be the FOMO driving that push...

The TradingView bullshit technical indicator thing has now flipped from 'buy' to 'neutral'.  The last time this happened it was an extremely bullish indicator.  Let's go!!!

I'm ready for $200k btc 😎

Every user here are feeling bad for stopping the mining. Myself too have the same feeling, but I made a big blunder. I cashed out 1.5 btc worth of fiat to invest on mining equipments for ethereum. Finally just an year ago sold all the equipment for just around $1500. Atleast now if I had the equipment I could've made something. Looking the growth of the market, the timeline for bitcoin to touch $80k seems to be fair and targeting the ongoing year end it is time for investing.

Well I learnt that mining only had the benefit of paying your bitcoin through the energy bill.
Soon I figured out just buying bitcoin was safer and less of a hassle.
Investing in a GPU was worth it because you could game on it.
With dedicated mining equipment you see that shipments are delayed etc. So once you get to mining you are trying to get your money back. You might aswell buy the coins and have a drink and save yourself the risk....

Looking at any technical analysis for Bitcoin is a complete waste of time. Only a comparison of the historical data from the post-halving period can give some information. I agree that this is just a correction and further price increases are ahead of us. I think $80k can be achieved in a few weeks, but $200k I don't think it will be reached this year.

You are right that $200k feels like pushing it but IMO 100k will happen and quite easily.
Looking at history we have a 4x-6x increase to go before it crashes down.
Remember last time the transactions became the bottleneck otherwise it would have gone up more. We now have LN and other additions.

IMO $120k stable. Instability will push bitcoin to $190k-$250k. Then down to $35k...

Looking for some technicals isnt really a waste of time because if there are no news or simply fundamentals that circles out the market then theres no other way for you to make some analysis rather than on making those technical indicators which i can say to be much better rather than on making out decisions without any basis.

$200k is already a high price to presume out but this is much realistic compared to those who had been talking about $1M/btc or even 2.5M which is already a ridiculous price for them to presume out.

$80k for this year is attainable but if we can sustain on these levels and would be seeing another positive sentiments or news of adoption in next months to come for this year.

In my opinion, these are still too bold predictions. It all depends on what news will appear in the future. I think we should focus on hitting these little jumps to next levels and only when the price is safe we will be able to think of jumps as high as $150k or higher.

one can say is to give the opportunity to gradually reach a certain point first, do not jump on the price too high. because every certain price will definitely experience delays that sometimes can take a long time to move and sometimes even have to go down first to be able to go beyond.

indeed the effect of @elonmusk is still there and it is clear and proven, it has made a surprise at a good price. to keep in mind that this is supposed to be the halving effect will take effect, which will usually occur at the end of the year. if now the price is high enough then there is a possibility that by the end of the year a surprise price can arise.

I think what the OP's prediction is base on the current situation, i.e. Elon Musk investing and then other institutions and big companies investing or hedging their balance sheet into bitcoin. If you take that into account now and the next coming months, there is a possibility that we may hit $80k in the future or even higher.

And what we are all waiting for is a 6 digits, $100k++, so let's see how this prediction will play out till October.

The price of Bitcoin has reached new at 58k, for me it is very satisfying,
especially since the increase from March to 2021 has reached more than 300%, don't be greedy,
Anything can happen, dump or pump, therefore sell some and hold longer term, because the bulls are not over yet!

I have just realised that the "six weeks" part of the thread has already gone, but I am really confident about the second part of the forecast.
Things are going to move really quickly in the coming months.

Exactly, although there is a strong resistance to our last all time high of $58k, I wouldn't be surprised that this month or the following it will be broken and then set another all time high. Just HODL, we are still in the second week of March, things might start to change in the 3rd-4th week.

6 digits will be imminent this year,  ;D. And there could be a lot of good news that will pop up in the next coming months, so $80k++ is still on target this October.

Where’s the current $60k+ in your predictions  ;D

So.  I hope everyone is enjoying this consolidation/correction and picking up some cheap coins.

Funnily enough, looking back on the first half of this prediction, I'm going to call it "pretty damn close".  In other words, I got the broad strokes right, so far.

Instead of $75-80k in 6 weeks, it was more like "62k in 8 weeks, then a weird flat period where it hit 65k around the 13 week mark".  Not exactly "nailed it", but if the second half of my prediction is right, is that $10k difference really going to seem so significant?

The idea of a moderate peak in price sometime in the late winter/spring and then cool-off period through the summer is indeed exactly what seems to be happening.  Now the important part, where the rubber meets the road later this year.  Are you ready?

How I wish I can buy bitcoin at the low price on 2018 beause today even of bitcoin price is dropping it is still risky to buy because it is still high at price of 33k$ and if i will buy it I need a big amount of capital. While to those who already buy on 2018 is now still on profit. Low price is really a big advantage if we want to buy that is why i am waiting for a big dip even if it will have a small chance to happen.

It seems to be that we did go in a really big correction but these corrections are a good thing for the market, bitcoin prove yet again that it is as volatile at it was the first time.

tend to agree we will see new ATH late summer/early autumn. personally I hope to rech about 150K max this year.
today 2017 price was $ 2574 and ATH was $19,783 on december 17 (x7.69) while
today 2013 price was $ 94 and ATH was $1242 on november 29 (x13.21)
let's assume 2021 ath will be about 4.5 x todays price($34,400) it makes about 155K. years ago i promised myself to cashout at 100K. it all goes to plan.

Speaking of the market to experience big correction and the market proving itself to be as volatile as it was before. I don't think we should expect any new ATH market when it October of this year because the market started it ATH journey when we least expect and will also stop it bullish trend when we don't expect.

We can't get into conclusion of having a new ATH. With bitcoin there is chance unlike the market. You itself have stated bitcoin started its ATH journey when no one expected for it. The same way price can reach new ath, because none can make precise prediction on correction, Bull and bearish trend of the market.

Well, well, well.

Part 1 was very close if you squint your eyes a bit, but part 2 turned out to be dead on the money.

the market can no longer be reached at this time bitcoin has penetrated the highest price and has gone too far to be reached again by novice investors. after reaching $66k everyone expects when can reach $80k again especially in this October. but unfortunately the market is really on the way back at this time, the fear is a bearish market in the future.