Bitcoin Forum

Been here since 2013 and I already saw this happening at least twice (2014, 2018). The price skyrockets, predictions are crazy, companies get in, adoption seems to get boosted, and many other things we are experiencing now. Then, one day the price goes down. From 1200 to 200 (2014), from 20000 to 3900 (2018). I know we all want this time to be different, but I truly think it's going to be the same.

Be Smart. Define points to sell and transform the numbers on your wallet on FIAT. Chances are you will see it crash and go much lower than your exits. If you are a holder, then this will allow you to buy cheaper.

Those are my two cents ...

Then you're not a holder. A long term holder wouldn't care about exits and re-entry right? If it goes up, buy. If it goes down, buy - Dollar Cost Averaging.

I'm not going to question your own method. You can exit anytime at a profit if you feel like it.

I'm just going to say thatanyone selling now is also at a risk of buying higher if he or she plans to re-enter since BTC has been crushing the market. It briefly breached $40,000 hours ago and I don't think it'll be stopping there. Who knows if correction comes after $100,000? If it does correct, will you re-enter when the new bottom is $50K?

Well, companies have never gotten in before (other than the odd company deciding to be the lone wolf and jumping in). That's the difference. If the companies end up panic selling everything no different than FOMOing retail investors then it will end up being the same. But there is certainly reason to think that companies and those in charge of investment firms have more experience than the average person who heard about some investment making people rich and jumps in trying to get rich quick. Institutions are much more likely to buy for the long term. Maybe we will get another year long 80% drop later on when this bull run ends, but it might also be completely different because a different breed of investor is driving this bull run. Sure price is skyrocketing and there are plenty of predictions, but the ones doing the buying are different.

That said, of course being smart, figuring out exit points you'll be happy with, and planning to re-enter as well is all good, though take into account the fact that if you plan to re-enter 80% down or something you may end up re-entering at a higher price than you exited because the market is changing now. Best not to exit entirely, but just exit partially when you are happy taking money completely out of Bitcoin.

Well. Won't we all love it this to happen this time too? At least those of us who are still stacking.

Despite your experience of the past two bull runs, you cannot deny that market sentiment this time around is very different. The kind of endorsements coming in are not just from celebrities but companies and CEOs. Many of the single buy orders have been for 100s and 1000s of BTC. That is serious money and not the retail FOMO of 2017.

It's good if we have an indication that it's going to have a repeat, what happened back in 2017 was fast and unexpected, right now we expect this to happen but we need to see an indication of when will this big pump going to end, the only difference I've seen so far is only the top coins in the market are making huge pump but other altcoins especially new ones are not experiencing pump, this is the only difference.

I never said ppl should sell now. All I say is: set exit points at some numbers and anticipate the correction (not talking about the small ones, but the big one, when the bubble bursts). Do you believe that it's gonna make it to 100K? Then set your exit points according to that. Re: me not being a Hodler, I never said I was. I get paid in crypto and do have most of my savings in crypto as well. Don't know about what's the HODLERS bible.

I don't agree with OP, as he is trying to time the market.

The best proven method to make profits with bitcoin is just to buy and hold. Everyone who has bought bitcoin and held it is in profit. On the other hand, many of those who played at doing what the OP says have lost money and regret it. I have seen it said many times, I shouldn't have traded with my holdings. That doesn't mean you can't ever sell, though.

Well people keep saying, "what if its different this time". And what if it is? The proof is a stock like TESLA which made Elon Musk the richest man on the planet today. The entire market cap of Tesla exceeds the combined market cap of all automakers currently. And when you are driving around, you see Toyota's, Fords, Dodge's. How often do you see a Tesla? Almost never in my area.

I think the earnings per share for Tesla is priced in going 20 years at the current rate. And yet the stock keeps going up. They had a stock split so the actual price is more like $4000 right now. Shorters are getting margin called left and right since it broke the $400 area about a year back. And at this rate it will have a market cap of 1 Trillion and Apple had a market cap of 1 Trillion about a year back.

So markets are not making any sense right now. It can top at $40K or it can top at even $400K. People are at home, bored, and nothing else to do buy purchase Tesla options and Bitcoins.

I would not compare BTC with TESLA man. I am not into TESLA details but you do see that EV are the future and Musk seems to have one or two innovative products on that market. On the other hand, Bitcoin is just a medium to store value that performs really badly in terms of its costs, decentralization, and scalability. If you take a look at Bitcoin history, its price is mostly stable with the exception of these massive P&Ds that usually come some time after halvings. And every time ppl thinks "This might be the one that's different".

It's going to go up until a certain point and it will then do a massive correction. If I am wrong and it hits the 400K I will be a very happy man. I am never selling all my coins, I just set some exit points and sell portions as I see the price goes up.   

I am and it had some neat results in the past when I timed it and got out following a scheme until it all crashed. If you think I did not buy more Bitcoin once the whole thing went to the floor and I had USD from those sells into the Exchange you just don't get my point at all. I am not predicting when it will burst, just telling that it will.

It's really hard to set time-based goals on bitcoin given that it's a market that's full of uncertainties and surprises. That's why a lot of us here just buys and hodls for the rest of the term and just take profits whenever we feel that it's already enough for us. Almost everyone in here surely have done this, be it an experienced trader or a newbie that doesn't know a thing or two about actual market movements. It's more safer, and much easier to manage compared to setting some goals in a timely manner that is doomed to fail for the most part.

If you want to know what price you are going to exit and you are content with it, I think will not be difficult for someone to set a goal. The uncertainties and surprises are there but that does not mean that it should affect your judgment, if you drop at X price and you find that it gets higher then there is still a try again maybe next time wait a little longer but as long as you have a profit I think you did not lose.

This is straight as you put it but I want to point first that in your topic, you didn't include stop loss for traders, I had it is important for those who want to make profit in trading.

And now I still see your thread as fund that you are putting through. Although you are correct as it happened in the past, yes  ;D. So you making an early fud,lol. Anyway, this time may also be different because so many things are now involved and adoption keeps increasing with big players.

There's always a certain price level that will effectively never be seen again, unless Bitcoin falls to zero, and this level is constantly going up. $1,000 seemed like a big deal in 2017 when it was witnessed for a second time, but after that is has never been seen again. When you sell, there's always a risk that this price will be below the bottom that will come after the crash, so no matter what you do, you will miss out on some profits. This is why people choose to HODL - you can't make mistakes with it.

I agree and said it many times here. But then people come up with "another mindrust". As it was at 20k in 2017 everybody was saying 100k for sure etc. I for my self set selling points. 20% would be at 40k€ and then I will not regret it. Even if we go to 100k and then dump to 20k or whatever.

But isn't it the whole story behind bitcoin has changed a lot? We have seen the price going down, very volatile because it's been seen as a speculative asset? But now the mindset has change, many see it as store of value and hedge, specially the companies that are buying today? So I guess it's better to be just a holder for now, otherwise you will get rekt by taking profits and when we are going to re-enter when it smashes all time highs like every day?

Certain portion at this price if you have already met your goal then should keep booking profits. And in case if dips come then you can buy again and make profits when it rises. And if it continues to rise then you already have some portion left with you as it is you are not missing opportunity of that too as your portfolio will keep growing.

Well, you do not have to be so smart when it comes to trading crypto currency; all you have to do is be consistent in your trading, be consistent in taking profits too. As long as you are able to take profits daily from trading rightly (and not gambling); then you can only worry about complacency

I just discovered Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies last 2017, and I don't want again to happen my regrets. Taking Profits.
Taking profits is not always a wrong move, I always do it, like taking some only profits and enjoy it. There will be always a good opportunity to buy Bitcoin, that's why when I am taking profits and it pumps, it's okay because I already don't lose, I already earn some.

I prefer to take my profits in Bitcoin.

Of course there's nothing wrong with spending some of your profits on nice things, and that usually involves converting some of your Bitcoin into fiat as an intermediary means of exchange.

I bought my first property in Mexico with a tiny part of my profit from the 2017 rally. Now I'm looking at 400 acres of pristine forest with a private lake less than an hour from Toronto by plane and taxi. Almost bought it just before Xmas but decided to wait until we reach at least $100k. It would have eaten up too large a portion of my stash.

Setting goals is good but don't set exit points. Set purchase points.

I disagree re: my post being FUD. I am just saying, "program exits as the price goes up b/c history shows that Newton's law applies to BTC as well". It's not that hard to grasp; I am not saying sell all your coins; it's gonna crash! What I say is, ok, it's skyrocketing, and we all know a hard correction will come at the end, so if you have 10 BTC, it might be clever to sell 0.5 at 40K, 0.5 at 45K, and so forth.

I don't advise selling everything. You gotta do it in a way that will be positive for you on both outcomes: if BTC drops to 25K (something very plausible), you will have FIAT on the Exchange to get back in and probably double your BTCs. If instead, it goes to 250K, you still have some BTCs and made some USD. 

I guess this does not apply to those hodling until the year 2030. But for those that cash out coins on a regular basis like me (I own a crypto-related project funded with crypto) to setup take profit points is what allows me to have some fun and earnings while whales make the big money.

It's different this time. Not that much attention from the institutions has ever been made than what we're seeing today. Yes, there's the possibility that there will be a crash but there are too many of them waiting for a small dip and then they'll buy all of those available bitcoins to be bought by them just to be brought up long term and with a higher price. He's correct about taking profits, if you've held since $3k, $4900 and we're @ $30k, $41k, those prices are profit if that satisfies you and you need the cash.

Whats different for sure this time is, even dumps of 1000 coins within 5 minutes drops the price only for 1-2k and very quick everything is getting bought up again. Whales really getting wrecked this time. Money is switching hands from very early adopter nerds and gamers to pro sharks and institutions.

Yeah, it doesn't mean that people had come in crypto will be long-term investors, there are also so-called short-term investors and I can't deny that I'm one of these people. In this kind of market, we can't just be a simple holder but be a smart investor and trader. We have to take advantage of every opportunity that comes and that simple, I may sell my Bitcoin or Ethereum to a higher price and never wait to the point that it drops.

Easier to be said than done, It is same as saying Buy Low, Sell High.
But if it is just as easy as saying it then we are all already a successful trader.
There are so many traders that are also having lossing because of it,
What if you set out an exit point and took profit and it didn't touch your re-enter point because it continues to grow?
You just lost your chance to gain more so there are traders who doesn't have much confidence or skills that only relies on holding their investment.

Good on theory, bad on practice for the past 30 days results.

IMO the current turbulent market conditions are not allowing selling and re-entering at a lower price.

One thing to keep in mind about institutions is that they got tons of cash available, much more than an average investor. They can buy BTC at $40K and then later say that their fund is "invested in bitcoin" and they don't really care if BTC goes to $20K or $80K because they are holding it long term like decades, whereas the average investor will hold it max for a few months and dump when it doesn't go anywhere.

So institutions right now can buy the top, but they can handle the drawdown, most retail investors can't. So just because institutions are buying, doesn't mean it has to go up. Obviously the last institution that buys in will get to hold the bag, question is when will it happen.

Yeah, they're all in to the market and they wouldn't waste those sold coins in the market. And like those that I've read before, there were some of them that have been buying OTC to make sure that they've kept themselves unknown. Big money is in and as soon as bitcoin reaches the one trillion dollar market cap. I think there will be more from these institutions and those that are still lurking around just to make sure that their decision would fit their standards.

Not if Bitcoin drops to 30K next week ...

What you guys are thinking about corporations is actually something I fear not support. If companies have this much bitcoin, it means the money is at hands of just one place, which means if Grayscale wants to, they can destroy bitcoin today with one click of a button.

It is going to take a while to sell them all, but can you imagine what would happen if graysacale decides to sell over half a million bitcoins? That would make the price go under 3k for sure, we haven't been under 3k for over 3-4 years now, but we would be under it for sure without a doubt when that much is sold. This is why I think it is going to be crucially important to make sure these companies can't sell all of them all at once by regulators, if they do that, it is going to cause a ton of people losing a lot of money, collectively billions of dollars will be gone, all because of one company.

What if it dont go lower and it just continue grow 10 times higher then when you sell?  When you say play smart you need to keep this situation n mind also. Yes definitely have sale strategy. And best sale strategy is (SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

With it you can never miss the train and with it you can never be left with full bags of useless coin.

Actually for those users who have felt bitcoin price 2017 ago they will afraid to buy at the current price. They will doubt every time they will buy bitcoin, because it had happened quickly. We hope it will be different because we can feel the different situation, there is no anything at 2018 ago, just a few companies that accept bitcoin and make its price soared.

But now we have a verg good factor, bitcoin has considered as a safe heaven beside gold. I bet at this bull run season there have been attracted many new investors and make its price increase more than we expected. I myself, to avoid to be victim like the bull run market 2018 ago I choose as a day trader, seem like it is the save way because we will know when the bear market will come.

The fact is there's going to be a correction, but just like other years back, the corrections won't matter when the bullruns comes because by then we'll be doing outrageous numbers as we're currently doing. Now the ball is in your court choose wisely or leave to regret selling very early like most users are currently regretting.

Nobody knows how high the price of bitcoin will go therefore trying to pick the right price to sell become an issue that can be solved by simply holding unto your coins for more years. The bear is a part of the market and if you can hold your emotions back and avoid selling, you'll be among the next enthusiast filled with joy when the next bullruns begin although this run hasn't ended yet, we're just at the early stage.

Ps: How about this 2 cents sats instead, Be smart, hodl unto your coins and accumulate more sats as the years go by.

Well, I might agree this but if you will see the trend of Bitcoin from 2008 to the present the trend is bullish and even though it will drop it will drop higher than the price where it dropped years ago. I know that the market will go down at some time as all of the markets are doing the same kind of cycle (going up and then going down).

In short, have some plans in whatever things to happen. Have some cash if it started to go down. Learn to take profit if you need to. If  you have a target price and it reached it then sell it. Whatever happens, the trend of Bitcoin will still be bullish and it will not change.

But with the MOvement of Bitcoin now , I think it's really harder to decide exiting unless you are willing to risk the chance of having profit by Selling .

I know your intention and that's a Helpful advice but if you wanted to sell you Bitcoin then Better convert to another Good performing altcoins .

Looks Like you're too confident that Bitcoin will drops next week  8) ,   Any Plans if this not happens ? maybe another weeks ?

I feel the same about going under 10k right now. Back in 2017 it was a big deal to go over 1k, but we never went under 3k even again, which means 3k+ was the bottom, before that it was a big deal to go over 100 dollars, but we have seen 1400 dollars, never seen under 100 dollars again (which is what ethereum is doing right now I think) and now we have seen 40k, I think we are not going to see under 10k ever again from now on.

We may never know this, we didn't know we wouldn't go under 100 dollars ever again, we didn't know we wouldn't go under 3k ever again, and just like that we don't know if we will see under 10k ever again neither. All we can do is speculate and right now I think that speculation is definitely 10k. It was a hard psychological number that we went high and low constantly and we didn't really go above it easily, but when we did, we just skyrocketed to 40k+ dollars.

We can't do anything with it. It's like them that we're stopping an individual to freely purchase bitcoins although they're in the form a big corporation. Bitcoin is for everybody and these corporations and institutions have just joined because they see it that there's room for them in growth and development. Whether they decide to sell those bitcoins that they've sold, they're also free to do so and just like us, we're free to sell at anytime. There's not that much comparison from an institutions move to an individual an average joe who owns a bitcoin. The only thing is that they can buy a lot and they have a lot of money.

It is likely we are playing safe, that exactly a smart thing to do even for me.
Have someone wanted to lose? NO, we all are aiming for returns, and that we need to think several times before hitting the button to sell, buy, or hold. Because if that we miss last 2017 Bullrun and that we miss again this year, there is something wrong with our strategy and that our plan is not been followed. Many got to failed because of being too confident that the market will continue to surge neglecting to think the possible dumb and that it happens last Bullrun.
This must not have to happen again...

Exactly, we are aiming the same to get profit, not just a loss.

But that is not a smart decision, because you don't know when to exit the market and take profit. For me, take profit once there is and hold the remaining balanced you have left. Or reinvest when there is a short correction happen, just like now, the market has shown a short correction and I think hold and invest more is an appropriate decision during this time. Because you did not know when to re-enter the market once you exit.

The price surely will be corrected at some point, there are some minor corrections yet the big one seems to have not come up to the surface.
everyone who has sold at $42k maybe obtains a considerable profit right now, but what if bitcoin hits $50k this week? they could have made more profit, you can sell some portion but do not sell all your bitcoin at once, instead set the target at a higher point, probably at $100k during the bull run market or at least until Q4 2020 that the value might hit the peak.

This was precisely what my OP said. Set exit points such as 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, and sell some BTCs to take profit. You can buy cheaper when the corrections occur or just convert to FIAT and cash out. Corrections will happen. Even if you think it's gonna hit 100K, it will correct a couple of times until your target. It's not about selling all your coins, it's about programming little sells that will most likely let you get back in cheaper.

Other people do that they hold they sell their bitcoin now and they waiting for another dumping which is a good idea that will gives you more profit. But it will also cause to you to lose profit let say you sell all your bitcoin and the price is rise so you lose it , what ever you do a decision they have consequences so make a research first before you do that like selling or holding this coin.

Basing off with those previous years and experience that we had in the past then it cant really be avoided not to think that it might really happen again.

When it comes to possibilities then it can happen again but for those who do really go for long  term then this wont really be an issue.
Exit  points is a must for those who do go for short  term trades to ensure out profitability.
Re-entering the market is much more difficult because we wont able to now on when and what price it can possibly fall.

facts, i didn't really need money back in 2016-2017, and i had some bitcoin, and after a small profit, i exchanged it to FIAT, and bitcoin skyrocketed and i regret doing that, it's more than 30k now and i sold them at 2100$, now i would rather lose everything hoping for bitcoin to go up than sell and just take that small profit people are searching for.

Well, if you can take advantage of this strategy, it is very good to increase profits when the bullish season occurs,
But the buy back strategy must also be done with the right analysis technique,
because if not then you will miss the moment again, and this must be done with care.