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Indian seen growing by 11.5% in FY22; global outlook improves, say IMF in latest World Economic Outlook report.
       World Economic Outlook Reports
A Survey by the IMF staff usually published twice a year. It presents IMF staff economists' analyses of global economic development during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview as well as more detailed analysis of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in translation to the market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.
 
For more information about this: https://m.timesofindia.com/business/india-business/imf-projects-11-5-gdp-growth-experts-say-india-to-achieve-5-trillion-economy/amp_articleshow/80475641.cms

      Is this possible?

It seems to me that these figures do not reflect the actual situation in the world. Just today, I came across a forecast for the development of the world economy for this year and it says that the world economy in 2021 will fall by 3.5 percent. I think that these figures are quite optimistic and not entirely accurate. The economies of all states continue to suffer material losses due to the ongoing fight against the coronavirus pandemic, and we do not yet know when and with what losses it will end. I don't think India's economic situation is different from the rest of the world.

India is developing quite actively and is now a major regional player. The availability of resources, a large population, a convenient geographic location - all this gives India a good chance to take a worthy position in the world economy!
The only caveat is that there is now a total problem associated with the Covid19 virus. Now in India, mass vaccination has begun, and it is not yet very clear how this will affect the level of infection of the population, and how it would not be - the impact of the virus on the economy is negative and very strong

It is possible, if India is growing rapidly and can get out of the economic crisis. But are the data really based on the feelings of all Indian citizens? or just create some sort of survey with random data?
isn't it that data can easily be manipulated for the benefit of state reports about public lies.
I couldn't believe it until Indians said this publicly and broadcast all over the world.

Due to the fact that with a large population in India, growth of 11.5% is not enough.

It is possible but less likely. These figures cannot be accurate in the pandemic situation.

The coronavirus will require lockdowns at least for another year or more. I don't see how India can achieve 11.5% in 2021.

Possible but for this year, the percentage of growth looks high. But with India having the productions of vaccine, it will play an important part for the growth of their economy.

I'm not good with stats but most countries are still down and just crawling up to get back to a better economy unlike China and other few countries that have mitigated the corona outbreak.

After you rise back up from your fall you'll be able to run 100 times faster than the time you were on the ground screaming...  ;D ;D
India is expecting a 7.7% GDP drop in 2020, so the 11% growth will look something like this:

2019 - 100
2020 -  92.3
2021 - 102.9

Basically, the huge 11.5% growth will only mean 3% compared to 2019.
If the drop in GDP in 2020 will be higher than 9% than will mean there will be no relative growth compared to 2019, just a recovery.


Who cares what their "feelings" are, we're talking about the gross domestic product feelings means nothing, neither does the size of the country.

^^^ So that is essentially a 3% growth in 24 months. Anyway, being an Indian resident I am happy that at least now the economy is back on track. Unlike the North American and European nations, the COVID 19 situation in India seems to be under control. We used to have more than 100,000 new infections and 1,000+ new deaths per day when the pandemic was at its peak (September 2020). Now these figures have been decreased by around 90%. That would have certainly helped the economy.

The report is misleading.


....


11.5% is a "bounce back" rebound stat. Later its mentioned true GDP is expected to decline up to 6.8%.

India sharing a border with china and being a main trading partner, is a likely motive behind the over optimistic report. This glowing positive report is meant to make china's economy *look good*.

The united states achieved greater than 10% economic growth annually. When it was more sparsely populated and deregulated in the 1800s to 1900s.

10% economic growth is an achievable goal. Although not by the restrictive bureaucracies and high taxation business environments of today.

India and China keeps on growing over the past years and even if there's a pandemic, they prove to be the best so I have no doubt that India will become a more of a power country in the future. I also adore India for creating their own version of a Covid19 Vaccine, they are one of the best right now. There's also a lot of reason why Indian economy will continue to grow over time, and 11.5% is a big speculation for this year. Hopefully more countries will start to recover from the pandemic and revive their economy.

Of course, lockdowns and quarantining protocols were implemented in India, as is expected, especially in a country like India that has recorded more than ten million covid-19 positive cases. They haven't developed their economy per se, they prolly have taken a little step forward, which every country's economy will see now and then, but economic recovery is still pretty far. The vaccine is in one way or another the panacea to all of this economic plunge, if the vaccines stops the spread, then the workforce can become effective again, though it'll take a pretty long time before country's start to experience economic normalcy again.

I don't know if it's possible but I really hope it happens! The COVID has done grave damages around the world and India is no exception! While developed countries like US or Canada or Australia were able to provide with financial packages to their citizens, India couldn't do anything other than zoomla! So I am little doubtful that the recovery will reach 11.5% if 2022. However, as the markets have opened up, the economy is showing signs of recovery. That 11.5% is a speculation only!

Like whatever is happening around the world, happening in India too! Everywhere the economy is showing signs of recovery and the same is happening in India. The GST collection is reaching new heights, personal tax collection has also broke previous records, so things are coming back to normal. Let's hope we really achieve a sustainable growth!

As the second most populous country in the world, India has sufficient labor and low cost, which will naturally attract many foreign-funded enterprises to set up factories in India. For example, Chinese companies such as Xiaomi also have production lines in India. The huge population shows that India’s domestic demand market is huge. Filling in gaps in many fields will naturally trigger economic growth.

It won't reflect because the ones that are benefiting from the growths are the people upstairs, the 1% who owns the companies. The estimate to be honest is misleading, they do not want people to see reality as raw as it can be, they want the people to not panic over something that will affect them but not the rich people. I can't really agree with your statement that India's economy not being different from the rest of the world because I do not live there, but I can guarantee that in my country only the top of the pyramid are going to benefit. And in my opinion, if the economy of India is growing, then how come there are still poverty present in their country with almost 60% living at around 3$ a day.

Right now China is taking some good advantage of India as now they are investing good funds just because of low cost labor and populous country this is giving some good benefit to India just because of covid-19 they have some serious issues but hopefully now these are going to be end in near future which mean bright future is waiting for this all but current government need to fix few issues which are bringing some domestic violence very badly in north part of country.

It will be Only possible if the People or the Indians will Go along the Government because if not then whats the sense of this article ?

Growth is always come to the country that the People and the government are working together , the problem in most country is that  people keep asking for improvement and development but don't contribute at all.

In 2020, their economic growth was minus 10.3% which is the exact opposite of their GDP in 2015 because they are the fastest economy compare to China way back then according to this (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_development_in_India&ved=2ahUKEwj0jM23icvuAhWFOnAKHfYKDAIQFjABegQIAhAE&usg=AOvVaw19-nvV-1PRdtqdZ2ICng5B) article. But it is not impossible for them to gain back their name as the fastest growing economy followed back by China if they succeeded on neutralizing the spread of COVID-19 to ensure that it'll happen within the year 2021.

Certain sectors such as IT were not affected by the pandemic and they are contributing to the growth right now. But most of the other sectors, such as manufacturing and agriculture are showing a negative growth. On paper they may be able to show that the GDP grew by 2.9% from the 2019 levels. But this growth is very uneven and until the pandemic is contained the economy will remain in a precarious state.

All countries have had a bad impact on the economy during this pandemic, that's a major factor, but India is nearing a recovery now, There are many problems that must be done by the Indian government to return to the position of a developing economy.

One of the things that India must do to achieve an economic recovery is especially about taxes and credits that must be lightened and companies that are almost bankrupt due to the impact of the pandemic, both fiscal and monetary.

If this can be re-elected by the Indian government, I am sure India will find it ranked number one in the world in economic recovery during this pandemic.

what is certain is what you are telling and in the news has not happened, if.

India do have one of the lowest corporate tax rates in the world, so any further lowering of these rates are not expected right now. However they need to consider lowering the personal income tax. The topmost slab is 42.7%, which is quite high. In the recent financial budget also the minister had refrained from reducing the tax rates. Rather than imposing such heavy tax burden, the government should widen the tax net. As of now, only around 4% of the population pay their income tax and the remaining 96% are exempted.

Keep in mind this is recovery rather than outright growth (same for other countries). For people who weren't too affected economically by the pandemic, they shouldn't expect a change either. The number will come from things restarting, people out of a job getting back to work, etc.

This Estimate is after a fall of more than 12% in the year 2020 which is the actuals data while 11.5% is an estimate projection. I think growing 11.5% it's isn't even coming back to the pre-covid stage. While most of the countries would revive post covid one big reason for Indian Revival is its service industry. While manufacturing Industry has been hit badly due to covid restrictions service industry has grown even bigger due to work from home and the service Industry getting a huge demand. While services can be availed remotely through virtual access same isn't true for manufacturing. India's IT hub was actually never hit that much. Most of the employers were anyways looking for a huge load shed Covid was just an excuse for them.

Is this the realization of the "India Superpower by 2021" meme?

Jokes aside, the world has always seen India as a melting pot of both the positives and negatives of the human condition, on one part, we see uneducated people who have trouble even using a proper toilet seat, while on the other hand, a progressive and promising country shines upon the world. If I must say, this is interesting, and I'd like to watch the country grow more, not only in the economic sector, but in the people sector too.

The problem is that the uneducated people are increasing in number while more and more educated people are trying to emigrate to other countries. Successive governments have made life hell for the salaried class, with ever increasing taxes. The tax-paying group, which comprises of 2% to 3% of the total population have to bear the burden of subsidizing the remaining freeloaders, who constitute 97% to 98% of the population. Indian is an example of classic democracy, where groups with larger population dictate the government policy making. Unless this structure is changed, India will remain as a third world country.

Post COVID, Indian population has actually seen a huge workforce which is no ready to do more for less. People have been on tenterhooks for really long. Some lost jobs, some lost relatives but there have been a few unexpected positives. The Vaccine effort and handling of the pandemic has been better than most parts of the world. There have been certain structural reforms underway over the last few years which resulted in losses to small businesses but are beneficial for the long run.

This is really just a "can't go any lower" kind of point in the curve. The only way to go is up. Wages are seeing a rebound and I expect major IT employers to announce bonuses and deferred salaries. All of this is pointing towards increased consumption in the short-term and hence the positive outlook, imo.

Whatever they are doing there, we need it RIGHT NOW here :D. I don't know how they grew that quickly that fast, and I know that India is rivaling china right now, which is a huge nation with a very big power so actually being in competition with China is a big marvelous thing for India. However one thing I am not sure about right now is the fact that other nations may not copy what they did.

Many nations (maybe India too, I don't know them) have very bad politicians that keep the nation from growing, if you keep the nation poor enough they will always need you and you will always be capable of saying "I will save you" to get votes, if a nation has rich people everywhere, no homelessness, no unemployment, very good life, that means why would they vote for anyone to begin with? They may not even go out to vote, because things are good. So, many politicians in my country just keep the country bad so they can try to get votes from poor with promises of better future.

I hope the news is true that the Indian economy can recover in 2021, because all countries in 2020 are experiencing a sizeable economic crisis.
Seeing the Indian government moving quickly in overcoming the COVID-19 problem, this might be the cause for the recovery of the Indian
economy. I hope that not only India's economy can recover, but all countries in the world. Hopefully this year we can really stop the spread of
COVID-19, because if COVID-19 can be stopped, the economic recovery in India and around the world can be much faster.

Last two days I saw news about it on NDTV, not the one of IMF, this was just a totally different news and they were saying that the India’s economy will clock 7.3% growth in this 2021. Then another news I saw on Economic Times says that their economy is one of the fastest rising economy in the world. That’s good to know, because before now it hasn’t been all that positive, and now here’s also the IMF news.

So, that is really great that at this time the world has been hit by a serious pandemic they are able to push through it.

Would this still be relevant if the cryptos gets banned and I do believe this would take away some of the percentage from right there. I have some questions.
- Will the current riots have no impact ?
- The Pandemic might be controlled and the vaccination might work but people are having some side effects from the second vaccination.
- Global trades are supposed to grow by 2021 itself and it's good that apple and other companies are seeing the so called potential in India , but let me tell you what that potential is:
Potential for them is people who are willing to work for the least wage a person can offer , they pick out people from the factories and offer them even lower than the lowest salary itself. The minimum wage of India for 8 hours is actually 3$ !! BUT that's on the documents but in reality people are paid so less that I can write a whole documentary about their situation.
So the Rich will get Richer
Poor will get poorer
Economy will grow
But will be hollow inside !!
( It's high time that the government adjusts these strategies and start getting involved with their own country more right now , global trade is not as important as the local problems , you might get a 5% increase but at least the local economy will be stronger , we fail to realize the concept of local economy more and more these days )

I doubt there is a lot of BTC in India, so whatever the government does it can't have that big an impact. Are there any known Indian BTC whale ?

I know many traders in India personally who trade above 1k btc on a daily basis and such whales will not let their business shut down so easily. The path that Indian government chose is not the right one as they did not adopt internet in its early days which is why they were 10 years behind 'in terms of dealing with it' where many countries adopted it early. They are doing the same with crypto and will regret later.

There is active growth when viewed from the outside, but it lacks a lot starting from education and housing. Lot of things need to change. When a government isn't ready to accept its people's mind then there won't be any growth. Everything will be portrayed and given an outline as growth.

No offense, just think of the farmers protest. It started during the month of August and till date the government isn't ready to accept the farmers suggestion. If this is how a government rules, then growth will be in negative value. The government is much focused on building statue than the people's need. The government need to think, 20% of the country's GDP is from the farming community.

The current ruling party and its politicians became quite arrogant after their second win in 2019. They won with greater number of seats and greater vote share compared to 2014. This made them overconfident and now they think that they can make whatever laws of their liking. When the UPA was ruling India (2004-14), they didn't had a majority on their own, and therefore they used to consult other parties before coming up with important laws. But this government doesn't care about anyone else and that is applicable for their allies as well. Some of their allies such as SAD and SHS have already left the alliance. Others are getting obsolete, contesting less number of seats year after year.

Well, it seems my country is not the only one that’s facing an issue like this, people supported the wrong party and now they have learnt their lessons. We used to think that things very bad back when the other party was ruling the country, and now we have seen the worst, things has gotten really worst than what it used to be back then and everyone has finally learnt their lessons.

Moreover, the one thing I have learnt about these politicians is that during their first tenure they try to pretend to be good so that they can get another votes and when they get in the second time they will start misbehaving and showing their bad sides.

I share your belief, how can they be when they are on top of the CoVid standing, what makes them different from other countries, even the United States and some European countries are suffering, I have some friends coming from India and they too are complaining of economic hardship, I could have believed it if we are not in a pandemic, and the world economy is collapsing.

You've just perfectly described the situation in my country! Our people have lost trust in all the politicians because they were all frauds and corruptionists. So, many people voted for the one candidate and party that gave hope because they were not politicians and seemed closer to understanding ordinary people. However, it turned out really bad, and taxes and prices are only increasing, while salaries remain the same. And now with this pandemic the country is closing up to a serious crisis, people can't afford the stuff they were used to anymore, small businesses are closing, etc.

My country has some hard-working and educated people, willing to rebuild the country, like in India. But, unfortunately, the government resists to help and makes the living conditions worse each year, which is why 95% of the smartest people are immigrating. The latter makes the economical situation even worse, but there's no stopping it unless some serious changes will happen, but I doubt that.

As far as COVID 19 is concerned, the Asian countries are doing pretty well. But that has more to do with the resistance shown by the population to Coronavirus. In most of the South Asian and South-east Asian countries, the fatality rate from COVID 19 has remained below the 1% level. I guess one of the reasons for this may be the continuous exposure that the population have, for various types of flu-viruses.

The economy is now slowly coming back to life and since the infection levels are remaining low, the government has removed lockdown restrictions. The case is different in EU and North America, where the restrictions are still in place and therefore the economic recovery is not possible. But the introduction of new strains can turn all this upside down. Already there are signs that some of the new strains have a higher mortality rate in India.

Yes. It declined for probably same amount in 2020. all economies will have huge growth their year. But what it really matters is when they will reach level from December 2019. This is important. China is already on those levels. I am sure few other countries also. Most is way below. Also India.

The population in these countries is much younger, and younger people are less susceptible to have severe cases of COVID. Less obesity than in the West, too.

Most of the BTC whales are very anonymous, if I'm opportune to be one, i would rather remain anonymous for the fear of safety. Telling the public that you are millionaire without safety or security is highly risky.
Has anyone notice that in almost all crypto projects we do have today, there is always one Indian guy as part of the team.
Indians are known for tech and they always sell where they are. Google CEO is an Indian guy and there are many 0f them that isn't popular yet but they are doing something. This is why there economy never rest but keeps improving as the world is now computing science.

There are many users from India who are into bitcoin from the start and they are holding a large amount of coins and some of the bitcoiners are not active in the forum but that does not mean they are not actively trading. Then there are exchanges that are having high trading volumes which means there are active users and any stupid decision from the government can have an impact on the local market atleast.

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When it comes to the prediction of Indian economic growth i do not have much hope as there is nothing that shows any improvement.

When the government made the first announcement about the ban, there was widespread panic among the Indian users and the rates in local exchanges and P2P platforms went down by as much as 20% in a matter of hours. The rates eventually recovered, but if a ban is imposed during the current budget session (second phase of the budget session is scheduled to run from 8th March to 8th April), then we can expect a crash in exchange rates which may be even worse than the one we had when the announcement was made.

Believe me as someone from a nation that had the same politicians for over a decade, I can tell you that no matter how "good" you think a politician is, if you give him power for 10+ years they will become bad, there has never been any politician in the world that ruled over 10+ years and still stayed an amazing ruler, always starts to become horrible.

That is why I like USA system, they have that presidents rule only 8 year rule and usually the last year of their terms are just like a farewell tour and rarely anything big happens, which is why I think it is quite important that we focus on making sure politicians realize we can take away the power we give them, they think they "earned" that right and start becoming super arrogant and forget that the power we give them will be taken away from them in the end if they are ever too bad, obviously dictators are out of this, because they do not get votes they just declare themselves rulers, unfortunately there are still some nations with dictators.

Completely agreed with this. I have visited India very frequently, and I could see what is happening before my own eyes. The ruling party (BJP) was first elected in 2014, and back then people had high hopes about them. During their first term (2014-19), the performance was OK and therefore they were re-elected in 2019. However, the second term is like a horror story. Taxes have been increased to sky high levels and the middle class is really suffocating. Cryptocurrency investors face complete economic ruin, as the government threatens wealth confiscation. Farmers are agitating all across the country. Not a single sector of the economy is doing well right now.

Yeah, getting back to the same level or normality is what determines how quick was the recovery and it might still take some time. I don't know if China has actually reached that level but they do present themselves like they have overcome the problems. But remember even when China was suffering direly with the virus they showed like they haven't been touched by it and things are under control even when they were not, so they often don't let matters in their country expose them.

India might recover from the virus but I don't know when will the virus in their decision making will die as now they are again looking to ban the use and trade of any kind of crypto. I am not entirely sure of this news but I was reading an article and there I saw it recently about bill being worked on to ban crypto.