Bitcoin Forum

99% of everyone who was going to sell or short was obliterated in, 2011, 2013, 2017, 2021, and just then.


This is why I think maybe a lot of 'BTC' on exchanges are fBTC^TM f= fake, so fakeBTC


There just are not enough sellers left to push the market down in any meaningful way.

Maybe you're right, in the following Pandemic phase we can really see the down tend of Bitcoin maybe all people with FUD mindset had been left behind on that recent downtrend,

Right now the price of Bitcoin had slaughtered the FUD people even more from $32,000 USD to $37,000 USD in a snap, I just literally had a nap, and after I wake up, it is a test of faith in the market of Bitcoin the holders that patiently waited for this moment can surely savor the good price of their effort and patients.

So let’s say a lot of weak hands sold already at $20k or when the price reached $30k, just because they thought a big correction like the one from 2018 would follow. Of course, they made a mistake and many are now out of the game, while on the other hand institutional investors have been buying (and still are buying) large quantities of BTC and storing it in cold wallets with the intention of a long-term investment.

I would not agree that the difference in price of almost $15k is not something significant (from $42k to $27k), and these are corrections that have happened in the past - now only the numbers are different. Nonetheless, we should not forget that we are in the year that came after halving, and such years have always been the best in terms of price growth.

Considering that it is more than realistic for the price to at least double by the end of the year, why sell now when only with hold everyone can profit.

Actually this is depend on the people who are bulk holders. If they don't wish to sell at a profit then the market will stay for long on this level. That's good since the price of bitcoin could stay for a while and possibly increase in the future. Those who are dragging the price are possibly lesser to those holders so I'm positive that this bull season will stay for long time.

There is no down trend, how come the ATH was recorded at the pandemic if there was a down trend? I do not think that there has been a down trend lately, the prices are still higher than the last time that I have cash in my bitcoin which is around 18k, maybe for some people who brought at around the 30k to 37k mark would consider it a down trend. Those people that have a mindset that is easily affected by FUD deserves to be left behind, they didn't put their trust in the bitcoin market and all they care about is the profit that it entails, so they have to suffer the consequences.

We'll never be able to really tell on most exchanges if those are "real" BTC. Known Cold wallets from exchanges barely make up order book totals, and volume suggests there definitely is less and less so the narrative does fit that there just isn't enough to go around. Which makes it even more popular for fbtc as you call it to extend.

Which does beg the question. Are there now or soon to be buyers only interested in fbtc or who don't or won't care?

Institutional or retail, maybe all that's important to many investors is the balance sheet, not "physical" balances.

I disagree about 2011 and 2013, no one sold the coins at a loss at that period and no one was obliterated, but if you compare the price now you will regret selling the coins during the initial stages but you cannot call them losses. But 2017 was an entirely different time where many new investors burned their hands when they short the coins or purchased the coins with credit cards.

There can be fake volumes or trades on some exchanges, and its hard to tel if its real or not but time can tell if we’re really on a bear trend or the up trend.

Some may sell to take profit, and that’s their strategy so if you are planning to sell as well do it, don’t blame yourself if the market goes down because its normal and cryptomarket is very volatile.

FUD will stay in the market and its not our loss, its up to them for selling their holdings out if panic, The market will always go up in long term trend, but a hell of a ride for short term.

I also agree with your point of view, the markets were completely different at that time, even at this point we were completely different from 2017. What will the dead bears have to do to save themselves, the market always exists only we cannot survive with it, the next time we will see the knitting of cows and bears being affected massacre.

I think only a few or probably just one exchange I've seen that had said they'll be limiting users' buy order for bitcoin. But for the biggest exchanges, I haven't heard them saying that warning and caution to their users.

I believe that most of them have the biggest reserve which might be in use if they ever get short in bitcoin for sale. If they ever use fBTC for the orders as you've said, they'll be backing it up with the actual BTC for withdrawals which I think, instead of using fbtc just for the sake of show balance, they don't have to do it but instead use actual BTC.

Last few days when there's a short pump of Bitcoin right after Elon Musk changing his Twitter bio with hashtags Bitcoin, everyone happily sells and cuts their profit.  But it might be a coincidence or that when the Binance exchange announced (https://twitter.com/binance/status/1355102905171406849) a suspension of all withdrawals, they notice that there is a large increase of withdrawal request which is obviously they are dumpers or something new users who have a weak hand that all wanted is gain a small profit.

What on my mind is because we have different investors of Bitcoin, not just individual investors but it also has institutional investors which are most of them are big companies who adopted Bitcoin that surely kills bears right after massive surging in the market.

There are 15 million BTC. Each of them have own value. When $30k will be to low for them price will move up. But every coin have its price. Some will sell at $40k some at $50k some at $100k. All 15 million BTC have its price. Oh and dont forget that those that will buy at $40k will then again have its own price when will sell. So these 15 million BTC never decrease.

There's a target price on every Bitcoin hodlers or even traders, there's no fix price on the market. Whales knows what to do, and knows when to take profit, while the small time hodlers are just depending on the market situation same thing with the traders. The downtrend is normal scenario of any market, there's a lot of things to be considered, look at the bigger picture, we are still growing in terms of market adoption.

There is always lots of sellers available to sell and push the price down, that is the weak hands. But the important thing is that there is also a lot of buyers who would buy their coins cheap and won't let the price fall down any lower than certain levels.
For example recent weeks showed how there are still a lot of weak hands who panic sell (ie. from $40k+ down to $28k) and also there are a huge number of buyers who would be more than happy to buy bitcoin at a discount (ie. from $28k back to $34k).

I believe bears deserve to lose money, they are betting on people losing money and that is not really something we should be fine with, that should never be something we should be fine with. At the end of the day we are talking about people who would short, make bitcoin go down, thousands even millions of people lose money because their bitcoin now worths less, and they made profit from this suffering.

That is the same reason why GME stock was picked by wallstreetbets as well, sure gamestop is not a sustainable business and they will literally bankrupt eventually because let's face it with epic store and steam becoming this big, who needs gamestop to be honest, but you also can't just short it so that everyone would suffer and gamestop crashes because you wanted to profit from it, let them bankrupt normally, not because you wanted to profit. Hence, I hope this killed off many many many short positions.

I think that the game has become a lot different from what it was in 2018, this is a battle of strong hearts, people with weak hands cannot continue, whenever he was afraid and sold at the low price, he lost his money and bitcoin went up, the big players came back to buy from low areas and accumulated a lot of bitcoin and they are They will sell it on higher ground.
There are a lot of players in the market and we see big fluctuations happening daily, so we have to understand the game well so that we can continue in this volatile market, you can benefit from that if you have the courage and wisdom.

It is shocking that Elon was capable of doing this. Why would anyone buy a cryptocurrency just because someone else said it. That is the power of social media and fame, like if I said people go out and buy bitcoin right now, it wouldn't change the ideas of 1 person, at best maybe I can change the mind of one person and that is best case, but this dude comes out and says doge and suddenly it skyrockets. That never made sense to me, that is not really the thing we are talking about when we talk about decentralization

Sure it is decentralized, and it could be even considered unregulated right now considering nobody cares about the ups and downs, only KYC type of stuff, which means we could have 10x in a day and nobody would say market manipulation. However what elon did was market manipulation, it was literally just him making something go up, if he had any doge, he got richer thanks to it.

And you're right. Institutional investors are simply going to strengthen the long term long positions that exist within the market.

There are a ton of demand for BTC as a store of value, away from the imminent fiat collapse. And leveraged shorters will definitely be a lot more careful now that they've seen what mass retail interest can do in terms of inducing a short squeeze (think GME and silver more recently).

This is why I feel very confident in the $20k support holding - there are simply too many long term bulls, as you said, for the markets to move meaningfully downwards in any sizable fashion in the medium to long run.

Yes currently there are not enough sellers to push the price down but remember what happened back in Nov 2018? Basically the $6K support has been holding for mostly the entire 2018 year. November was usually a very bullish month for bitcoin. So everybody was waiting for BTC to start rallying in November. And it traded sideways for most of the years because people refused to buy and refused to sell.

Then what happened in the middle of November? Basically it hit $5500, people assumed it cant go lower but it went to like $4500, and then again people assumed it couldn't go lower and it went to $3000 or so before finally bottoming.

So after $6K broke, all of a sudden tons of sellers appeared. You could verify this by looking at the amount of BTC sent to exchanges in that month. People were scared and they dumped BTC at the low.

So supply is low now because price is high, people want $50K or $100K bitcoin before they sell. However if price starts to head the other way, say below $10K then all of a sudden supply will increase in the markets due to people panicking. That's the best time to buy.

I'm sure it has sold and bought back its BTC to date, at least 90% of early investors. This type of consideration is unlikely to help. Despite the fact that people are ruled by greed, there are many investors on the market who have low expectations. I think those who appear on the market today are much more careful than those who started to be interested in cryptocurrencies a few years ago. They will not hold BTC until it reaches the price of $1M, but they will take profits after earning even 100% or less.

Those weak hands were always here, we are talking about people who helped the 2018 bear period as well, there is no way you could stop those weak hands. However what you can do is get a lot more richer and diamond hand people involved as well, if you do that it would help to increase the price. For example, those huge corporations buying thousands of bitcoins are sort of part of this, they are basically doing what we are talking about, they buy and they hold and they do this for thousands of bitcoins.

So, basically we are on the right path, we are doing a lot better, sure we still have those weak hands we had in 2018 but this time around we have super rich people buying and holding, would it be a huge crash if those people end up selling? Yes but it would be even better afterwards for the purge, until something like that happens we are doing a lot better nowadays.

^ Definitely right, they are those institutions who invested a lot in BTC because they believe that you will potentially gain profit if you are waiting the right time to sell, and others adopted BTC because there are few merchants online who accepted BTC as payment. We expect more bears to kill if most of us are clever to hold our BTC and the basic law of BTC price determines by the demand and the supply. Nevertheless, those weak hands are always a loser and did not know the flow of BTC how to gain profit.

I can say that as an early investors I did really bought and sold early on as well. I was a bit too late to get back in but I did bought later on. The bears in this run is really nothing like the previous ones, because their numbers are lower and their work is weaker as well. Back in 2014 and in 2018 we had bears who had a lot of money, and who were selling like crazy, and we were talking about bears that controlled the market easily as well, nowadays we are talking about just some few people who would be capable of selling a bit but a lot more people buying at the same time.

I think the bears ran their course and bitcoin lost that bear fear, we are not longer afraid of the bears and whenever price goes down just a bit we start to buy in bulk because everyone knows 35k+ is quite possible so making a 10%-20% profit is not really that shocking.

I don't think an intelligent trader would trade without a tight stop loss in place especially these days when the Market volatility is so high that we are getting an ATR of more than $3000. This thing is both for shorts and the longs because when last week BTC fell by around 20% it was the longs who were liquidated at a huge scale. You have to make sure to save your capital in any case whatsoever.

You are confusing a couple of things here.
What we had in 2018 was a bubble burst and then a bear market. It had nothing to do with weak hands. Just like bull trend, a bear trend is also a natural trend that any healthy market can enter and bitcoin had it during 2018. With or without weak hands the bear market and bubble bursts happen because they are inevitable.

Weak hands are only causing nuisance in short term. For example even today when a very simple correction starts after going over $40k we see the panic sellers (aka weak hands) dump in a frenzy and increase the size of that correction to as big as 30%.
Again when price goes up and breaks some resistance, the same people this time called panic buyers (aka weak hands) start FOMO buying bitcoin and make the rise jump up instead of slowly getting to a higher price.

Not sure that whales have a target price. Having watched this market through every peak and trough, I would say many hodlers from the early days that have refused to sell for so many years at what would have seemed immense amounts of money, are not looking at fiat value at all.

Being a stock futures trader myself, I always have a target, but have tried to be an impartial observer of BTC as far as possible.

I think there are many people who would have sold out at every conceivable stage on the way up. Only the crazy die-hards are still whale holders, and why would they ever sell ?

This sentiment can change at anytime, the whales has the capabilities to make that happen, they're probably waiting for the best opportunity then create the fuds and manipulate the market to their favour. Currently we're bullish so there's more of buyers than sellers any moment that momentum turns you'll see all the sells coming out.

The market will always revolves in circles, (stages) which is the bull and bear circle, meaning at their respective stages there'll always be enough buyers or sellers to influence the market.

That was the old whales that wanted to see bitcoin go up and down and make profit from that, these days we have public companies that buy bitcoin in billions, which means they can't just buy and sell to manipulate the market because we would know about it and know what they are doing, looking at what they are doing so far we can see that they have been buying and holding, tens of billions of dollars worth bitcoin was bought and hold during the last 1 year, and that is going to be the case for a long time as long as public companies keep buying bitcoin.

This doesn't mean that there is nobody that does the old method where whales dumped and pumped to make money, but it also means that there are competition now that buys and gets it from them, corporations are collecting as much bitcoin as they possibly can to have more bitcoins these days.

I totally agree if you say that whales have Bitcoin and money to dump and pump the market. But you are less precise if you say the price cannot always go up. Actually, the price will always go up, Because Bitcoin is the long term investment, Try to compare the current price and the price 10 years ago. Stop care about whales, but you should care about the future, buy as much as you can