Bitcoin Forum

https://i.imgur.com/DKaEUwu.png

Bitcoin will have the most important monthly candle closing tomorrow. See the big wick in 2017 last green candle and it was end of bull season. In 2019 also, we had a big wick and then a long bear market. This month's candle also have a big wick  :o  But bitcoin still have one day and maybe if could pump again to 37-38k, our bull season will remain intact, else is this the signal of end of bull market ?

Looking at the last bull market we had 5 successive greens, followed by a red, followed by 3 bigger greens.

I think we could even go slightly red as long as we don't encroach on around half of the previous candle then we can still keep going up from here.

Use logarithmic scale, not linear. This monthly wick isn't actually that big.

The closest comparison I can find is November 2015. After that monthly candle, the market went sideways for a few months before busting out to the upside again. I suppose that's possible here too. :P

This is more than what we expect from history of 2017, and as far as previous bullrun initiated several altcoins also pump higher that time. Unlike these days, I've only noticed bitcoin Bitcoin surged that enormous price ever of its history, and definitely 2020 is the perfect time of a bull season. Hopefully we will soon experience those predicted value, and I think $50k is possible once gradual increase remains consistent.

January 2021 candle is about May 2017 candle. That far we are in a bull run. Now you figure out hoe many greens and reds we will have in next half year.  We should have one or two red maybe already next month or maybe even 3 months from now. Then few more greens and bear market.

That might a bear trap, just wait for a few days then it will exceed $40k again, this possibility doesn’t hinder the market from testing the support levels.
The last surge from $31k to $38k may be caused by Elon musk after add #bitcoin hashtag on his official Twitter profile, and then the market rejects further upside then corrected to $34k. This retracement indicates the gains may occur in a short time and bullish market sentiment will push the price to climb up.

Bull market is nowhere near over.

If you look at historical trends, the bull market usually lasts around 1-2 years in the year following halving. We have just recently gotten out of an extended bear market, which would suggest that the bullish sentiment would at least continue until the end of the year if historical trends hold up.

Also, if you look at the level of institutional holdings at this moment, it certainly suggests that fundamentals have improved substantially which reduces the amount of market volatility, but also stretches out rallies.

Who believes in candles when we are talking about crypto and speculations?! The last candle, precisely the one shown in the graph, results from Elon Musk's tweet bio and FOMO buyers. Now the price is back to the levels before the tweet.

I honestly do not think the bull season has ended yet, I feel we are just starting. A lot has changed since 2018 when the long downtrend started with so many real life use cases, more acceptance even by Financial institutions blah blah. All these things will speak volume! We may have a retrace within the year, but I feel we still have a long way to go to the moon. I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin market cap hit trillions this year. For all I care anyway, Bitcoin remains in a long term uptrend. One thing for sure is that bull markets don't just last for a month on Bitcoin in the short term.

Its hard to predict where will Bitcoin is heading in the next month and its obvious that the bulls are still in control of the market.

Even though we have seen a drop in the past weeks from ~$40,000 to ~$33,000 today, I think that it is just normal for a market to make a correction to shake things up. I would be happy if Bitcoin will surge upwards in the next month though but I'm still ready for the worst situation that might happen :).

This is a monthly chart and not a daily chart which shows the candle of pump due to elon musk. Although crypto is highly volatile, most of the time the price moves according to the candle sticks pattern. I am still worried about the monthly closing today.

We will see though, but I'm not going to compare it to 2017 big candle formation though. we are still in the upside and I would say bullish if we close the month in a red candle. What we are seeing might create a new candle formation not relative to past historical logs. The pump from Elon Musk was unexpected and we haven't seen this kind of pump in bitcoin's history that's why the candle suddenly goes up.

I guess the bull market will still continue because bitcoin does not reach the highest price, although $41k is the highest price and the new ATH on this year. Bitcoin price can increase more than the price now and back to $41k soon, and we still have more time to wait for the price to start the rally. But it is not easy to predict when the bitcoin price will get another rally since we do not have the right signal about the time. So we can only wait and accumulating more bitcoin, so when the time comes, we are ready to sell bitcoin at a high price.

I am not sure why its difficult to understand. The elon mask pumped bitcoin to only 38,000$ but in the month of January we hit 42,000$ (without any elon mask influence) and now back to 33,000$. This big monthly wick is a bearish sign ( i hope i am wrong and we stay in bull market always).

You (like many others) look at only one small piece of the puzzle, and completely omit the bigger picture. EM is completely irrelevant in this story, it’s a pure coincidence and nothing more - but if people want reasons for every price change, they’re very easy to find.

The current price is a reflection of supply and demand, and those biggest investors like Grayscale stopped investing late last year, while at the moment they are buying significantly less than before. When and if large investors re-engage in the purchase of BTC, prices will surely rise again - and until then we should be satisfied that we have a stable + $30k.

Your hopes for the bull market always are completely unrealistic - there is nothing that only achieves growth without occasional adjustments.

November/December 2021 is the time for a huge bullrun. Up until then many bumps and dumps will happen, probably with ATHs and scary lows.

At the end all possibilities are still on the table, while the monthly candle could mean the end of the bull run there is always the possibility the market consolidates during the next months and then we have a strong close on the last two quarters of this year.

I will admit however that as of right now it seems more likely to see a decrease in the price than an upward movement but everything will depend on how the market behaves during the next months, if the price can remain above 30k then we will be in a great position for a renewed bull market.

The chart already looks bearish, and the institutional buyers understand that too, so if they will stop buying, the $30k support will easily get broken, as institutions will hope to buy Bitcoin at much lower levels, like at $20k and below.

There's no rule that says that Bitcoin's bull markets need to last 1-2 years after the halvenings, and since everyone is so aware of this pattern, the pattern stops working.

But the fact that there's no onsistency in this market, already breaks the assumption that this day will be the last day of the 'bull', simply because the same thing happened on the previous ATH. I do understand the idea. People are just anxious of what happened before wherein many expectations were made back then but the opposite happened. And to mention, bearish market lasted for more than a year which even made some investors to quit this industry just to cut their losses. Those who stayed despite of their losses before have surely redeemed and probably have earned profit on the recent ATH. And this is also the new idea on both bullish and bearish market.

I would not attach much importance to these "repetitions of history" - if it worked, the market would be completely (or at least 90%) predictable. In fact, no analysis of history (let the fans of technical analysis forgive me) does not provide any knowledge about the future.

I would agree that we are somewhat in the bearish phase base on charts, as you compare it to 2017/2018 movement. That Elon Musk fuel was nothing, and now we are just trying to hold the upper boundary again, meaning there are very much active sellers around. But I would say that if we remain above $32k, only means that there are active buyers as well. So there is still the potential upside that this bearish trend might not continue. So let's see where the market is going this February, if it goes higher then good, if it plummet then perfect opportunity to buy in portions.

We're an hour away from the monthly candle close. Not quite a shooting star, but the closer price dips towards $32K, the more it looks like one:

https://i.imgur.com/n9dnGG1.png

Extremely high dollar volume too. Maybe this consolidation will drag out a while longer?

Then looking just on wicks from 2017 and 2019 then we could have another monthly candle with a huge wick I'm it and the possibility to get that 36k, 37k, and 38k range is likely to happen. Furthermore, it's wise not simply looking at the technical side as I think the recent events of shilling has a positive impact on the market and the coming of those big institutional investors like Michael Saylor, Elon Musk, you can name some of them lately even Grayscale that continue buying on the 30k level. Might be nice if we mix it with a little percentage of fundamentals and not pure technical, possibilities are endless.

My Bad, I should be more precise. Obviously, it's a monthly graph as Bitcoin is under $10k most of the time.

Candles are maybe more accurate in the long term, but they are not in the short term for crypto.
I meant, IN SHORT TERM, I can't believe in a single technical analysis, candle or graph when a single tweet, a fake double-spend FUD or similar news can move the price 15%-20% in minutes.

I do not believe anything bad could happen neither. Sure it was a huge increase and I understand the scare, however "although crypto is volatile, price moves according to candlestick pattern" is not correct in my view, I do not agree with that. What happens is, you go back in retrospect and you see that it moved in this pattern and that pattern and you put the same patter in the future and see something horrible and get scared, whereas the real situation is patterns work in retrospect because you take a look at it that way, but doesn't apply to the future because it all depends on what's going on.

We could have grayscale putting 1+ billion dollars in shorting bitcoin, sell all their 500k+ bitcoins, earn from 100x leverage shorting,  and eventually have 100+ billion dollars from all the way bitcoin drops. However we could also have them finding another investor, like a huge morgan stanley, jp morgan type of one and get another 20-30 billion dollar investment to buy bitcoin and we could be 50k+ in a day too.

I'm not saying that it is hard to understand, removing out Elon Musk influence to the price, we still have other parameters to look at, specially the sentiments of traders around, like the fear and greed index. Still very greedy, so I would say that it is bullish.

In any case that we are in the bearish phase or at least have entered similar to 2017/2018, then it spells trouble.

If you look at technically it is likely that the bull season will end in the near future, but we also need to consider Bitcoin fundamentals which are
getting stronger. Then history doesn't always repeat itself, so there's no need to be pessimistic about the bull season coming to an end. Because
in fact we all do not know where Bitcoin is going, just stay alert in the meantime. But I am still optimistic that in the near future Bitcoin can at least
go up to a price of $ 40k again.

Even though the monthly candle was quite bad but we have seen a pretty big positive candle this month so far. Most of the people now are talking that we have yet again entered a bearish phase where prices can return back south once again just like February 2018. But I think this is just a beginning if you see the rallies bitcoin has had before a bear phase you will see they were atleast 400-500% from the previous All-time highs while this bull run was merely 200% of the previous all-time high. Also the institutional investors are still stacking up bitcoin in kilos therefore there is no chance that we are going south anytime soon.

^ Yes, the TA might have been delayed but it start the month in a positive candle already.

I myself thinks that we might go on a bearish mode, fortunately, the price seems to be on a slow bounce at the start of the month, so $38k will be the next big resistance that we need to overcome so that the positive candle can continue this February.

So now we can say that we are safe as we have been building green for 3 straight days now.

That is what I think about the current situation as well. It is basically a proof that TA is not always correct, sure there are many times TA is correct as well so I can't say TA is a bad thing, it is definitely a great thing, I just feel like it is not 100% always right. This is one of those days where it is not correct at all, it is not profitable to do whatever TA says all the time, there will always be days like this.

I think it is the "unexpected" thing that we have in crypto, sure stock market world has that too but they have it less frequently, TA shows what it "should" do but then Elon musk tweets something and everything changes suddenly, so that is why I think it is obvious that those unexpected things we have in the crypto world is the main reason why we can't really rely on TA because some day some rich crazy person could buy 30k+ bitcoins or some early investor could sell 30k+ bitcoins too, who knows?

I guess that is not shooting stars candle, we have been seeing now bitcoin price is trying to increase again and close the previous wick candle. Usually, if the movement price like this happen the price will increase more than the previous candle, I guess that will happen.

Also, the fundamental factor is still good, the stimulus issue and Elon Musk who still give a surprise for crypto currency space will push bitcoin even some altcoin reach to the newest high price like ETH.

We have to compare when we predict bitcoin price movement, I mean we have to compare technical analyst strategy and fundamental strategy. If the signal give the same path then we have to take the strategy as our reason but if there is a differentiate between them we have to wait where the price will go whilst we wait another information.

I would say that recent price action may neglect the idea which i presented in my OP post and 42K was probably not the top of this bull market. Only if we are able to cross the 42K level, then i am sure bitcoin will go many level up and bull market is no way near to its end. Bitcoin is very near to break its final resistance and i hope it does it quickly.

While it is true that when it comes to the markets there are not fixed rules, and this is even more true in a market like bitcoin, we are once again seeing bitcoin trying to get to the 40k level, we are only a few hundred dollars away and if this continues then we are bound to see bitcoin trying to remain above that level again.

It will not be easy but it is something that is entirely possible, and while it is likely institutional investors are not going to buy at the current price retail investors will and they are strong enough to move the market on their own.

I frankly admit that i was wrong in this analysis that the big wick was the market cycle top. Bitcoin has now made another all time high above 49,000$. Perhaps, fundamental events like Elon Musk buying bitcoin news made the technical analysis invalid. No one know what is the market cycle top for this bitcoin cycle now.

At least you are man enough to admit your mistakes and shows that technical analysis can only go that further and it's not a guarantee. So appreciate it, just keep posting us your technical analysis though, unlike others who jus predicted the price without any graph to show us.

Yes, the Elon Musk really change and invalid most of the technical analysis that we have seen so far. As I have said previously, he open the pandoras box and today we reach another all time high.

You know, you're wrong whether you admit it or not;)

But don't worry, I was fooled too. I was short-term (and probably still am) bearish but every time we get a new ATH like today I'm wondering when the pain will come, or if it will be put off to a farther future.

I doubt Musk is fundamental though. It's good momentum catalyst but you can't be relying on unexpected boosts like that all the time.

Perhaps we have this bearish feeling each time bitcoin reaches ATH, because we have seen the previous bear market when bitcoin struggled to cross 10k.
The current prices seems to much high and therefore we have this fear of big dump, though it may not come this time.

Yeah, I am a perennial short-term bear (long-term bull) if that's what I need to label myself and it would seem the test has failed yet again. I'm not pessimist, though, just always keen to apply the brakes because I've seen what happens in a relentless but short-lived rally. Really hope to see this one carry on for much longer, happier to see slow ascents so I'm liking what I'm seeing so far.

I think that one doesn't have to be a bull or a bear in order to expect a correction after an overly big/stiff move.
Also with Bitcoin and crypto you never know when somebody decides he's good and want to cash in the fiat profits, since many traders/investors only care to grow their fiat.
Labeling yourself may be misleading or incorrect too. Usually one leaves to the others to label him, but in this case that may not be possible either.


It takes guts to admit when you're wrong. I see it as the good step forward, towards better predictions.
In Bitcoin markets there are many things that matters, from history to perception and to sudden moves or news that can trigger massive response from other traders. Tesla news was probably such a case, although the overall sentiment is imho still bullish, with or without Tesla buy.

And long may that trend continue. For as long as there are traders interested only in making money and not really into holding BTC, we have a fluid and moving market. I know people think the more people hold (and supposedly that's only what institutionals are doing), then supply squeeze will push prices higher, but I actually think keeping demand and trade volumes healthy consistently is more important long term.

I love labels. It's so human;)

Your chart analysis is very far from the truth and I think you can't predict that bitcoin will reach $48K+. Yeah because if people focused on the chart, maybe they will make a prediction like yours. And we all come back to rule no1 of cryptocurrency. Crypto is unpredictable.

Buy dip and HOLD and you will be rich, forget about the chart