Bitcoin Forum

Chinese New Year is on February 12. Do you think bitcoin and other altcoins will dump on that day or before? Seeing the current market now is going up I doubt that it will go down but many were saying that it's already a tradition that the market goes down during this day. Will bitcoin go below $30k? Is this a buying opportunity for many of us.

What are your thoughts on this?

8 days to drop 20%? Not likely. I think it will not affect price. Maybe 5-10% and fast bounce back. There is no fundamental reason for dump due to Chinese New Year.

Take this post from Jawhead999 for reference.
 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5215736.0  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5215736.0)
As you can see at the chart he posted from 2014 - 2019. Bitcoin tends to have short decline, and bounces back right after.
So, If we have to follow that kind of pattern, I believe Btc will sit around $33,000 - $35,000 base on it's current price today.

Here's another Chinese New Year Bitcoin price table from different source.

Year:
2020
Pre CNY High:
$8,500
CNY Low:
$8,240
Price Drop:
17%
Year:
2019
Pre CNY High:
$4,041
CNY Low:
$3,350
Price Drop:
50%
Year:
2018
Pre CNY High:
$14,000
CNY Low:
$7,000
Price Drop:
20%
Year:
2017
Pre CNY High:
$1,000
CNY Low:
$800
Price Drop:
8%
Year:
2016
Pre CNY High:
$400
CNY Low:
$371
Price Drop:
7.25%
*Data based on Bitcoin Prices on Coinbase. Pre-CNY Highs taken as average candle price up to 4 weeks before the New Year.
Source :  https://www.google.com/amp/s/boxmining.com/chinese-new-year-bitcoin/%3famp  (https://www.google.com/amp/s/boxmining.com/chinese-new-year-bitcoin/%3famp)

In this table It clearly states that Bitcoin tends to decline during the Chinese new year or days ahead before the Chinese new year. But, I guess this year is different than the rest  of the history. Btc just gained 10% in the last 48hrs, and there's more than 1 week before the CNY.

That is a big question because, from what we saw before, the Chinese New Year can affect the price, and I think that is already happening in previous years. I hope the bitcoin price will not go down below $30k, but if that happens, we must use it for buying more bitcoin because we will have a discount price to buy bitcoin. It is better to prepare the money from now as we still have time to profit from the other coins. I hope the price will stay at the current price and turn the direction to go up after the Chinese New Year.

I wish we can sell the altcoin at a peak as I see that some altcoins still try to break the higher price. So we need to use this time to earn more bitcoin.

had it not been the pandemic people would have dumped their crypto to have funds to spend during this period

but now because we all trying to use contactless money to prevent catching the virus, I see the Chinese New Year stimulating demand for BTC(crypto).

Here we go again, speculations will start and be used as escape of dumpers. They tried to deceive the minds if innocent traders, and thought that it would make them afraid.
If there's no good opportunity this Chinese new year, price would potentially decline if there's no further demand increase.

Given that cryptocurrency trading has been banned for years in China, what used to happen is no longer the case.  The Chinese have a habit to donate money as a gift in a red envelope (https://chinesenewyear.net/red-pockets/), so this event was associated with the fact that the Chinese usually sell BTC at that time and thus influence the price.

Although there are a lot of Chinese people living all over the world, and they are returning home for the Chinese New Year - I don't think that will affect the price of BTC.

By the way, 2021 is the year of the ox in the Chinese calendar - so even though it's not a bull, this one still has horns :)

My thoughts are you should do a short for 30,009 price on 10x margin

if you believe it could reach under 30k by feb 12


For me personally I see 47k some time this month.

So we are on opposite sides.

No, it will not dump on Chinese New Year. And if ever it does, it is not because it is the Chinese New Year. The Chinese market does not dictate on Bitcoin's price. There may have been instances in the past where Bitcoin slightly decreased in price during the time of the Chinese New Year but I never thought that the decrease was due to the Chinese New Year. But it may have a little influence.

Chinese businesses may be affected by this Chinese New Year pattern but not Bitcoin. China does not comprise the largest market of Bitcoin.

Another year, another "OMG China gonna sell BTC to buy their family expensive gifts and mega dumplings". I have family who celebrate and as much as they want to wheel in the good times with fortune blessings to the ancients, no one liquidates their holdings to have a good time. Their ancestors would decry that.

Besides, haven't the past lunar new years said enough about the whole thing?;)

Nobody knows. IIRC, last year there's no action that happened during the Chinese New Year. As opposed to what others were thinking that there could be a sell off by that time.

The actual CNY, there's nothing happened. If it will go down to $30,000 again then that's the opportunity again. We'll just take it as buying time and moment if that comes.

I think Chinese New Year on this year may not or less affect to Bitcoin since we're still on pandemic/new normal, many countries nor peoples aren't celebrating due to social distancing. So, many peoples aren't travelling or spend their money to buy some stuff to celebrate on their homes, probably they still celebrate it but only with their family.

I really think so, the Chinese New Year now is not like before who can go where he wants but with this restriction it will probably not be affected by the price of bitcoin even I have no fear the market will fall at that time.
For me, never see news that worsens the situation, even when many people panic, they will sell freely, therefore Chinese New Year for me this year is normal.

Most of the hashrates of bitcoin mining is coming form china and maybe they dumped a little bit , but i don't think that it'll be a massive correction as everyone're so much bullish atm. After all, only panic users will try to dump on their own festival to regret later on. But it'll be a great oppertunity for future traders or hodlers to fill up their portfolio with more if that happen.

I don't really understand the regulations of social distancing in China. but I saw the news during the new year 2021 they also celebrate it. maybe they will tighten their social distancing regulations even more, because it's their native new year? I'm not really sure about that either. but maybe it will keep trading activity in China less and maybe there will be a decline, but I would not think that the decline will reach the price level below $30k. maybe between $31k and it will recover pretty quickly, considering that we are currently in a pretty positive trend

2021 is Chinese new year of Ox and preparations for their new year begin on February 4th until New Years Eve, but they have festival that last 16 days until February 22nd, so it's not one simple date to take into consideration.
If we look historically Bitcoin did drop in price in previous years but it was only temporary, and situation globally in world is very different this time and I don't expect price to go below 30k

I have a feeling this year Chinese new year will be different from other years as regards crypto currency trading and market; i say this because the effects of the pandemic means you cannot really go out on holiday as it should be; and there would not be desperate need for money at all. But still anything should be expected; do your own research and set up stop loss if need be

The fall in the price of cryptocurrency in the first half of February occurred earlier, but it has not been clearly established that this is precisely due to the Chinese New Year. Previously, there were other reasons why the price of bitcoin fell during this time. Now the cryptocurrency market has become more mature and I think that it will no longer react so well to such external factors by lowering the price of bitcoin.

I don't think so, I think that the market is not only moving in China, there are many Bitcoin holders around the world and also the institutional investment is very large now, each of them will defend their position and for Microstrategy, Paypal and others they will not It is convenient to see Bitcoin in low price again.

If a dump happens, the market will recover as quick as it can. We saw it many times and that's likely to happen if ever this Chinese new year is still the same in the past. Some miners who have saved as much as they can are likely to dump to celebrate the new year with their profits.

But China has already recovered from the pandemic, they're now one of the free country.

On the contrary, many believed that the Chinese new year will bring a lot of wealthy Chinese to bitcoin? However, I don't think that we can have correlation with any holidays around the world. It might be a coincidence that the market goes down during Chinese Lunar year. And if ever by chance we see a dip, I don't see it it going down below $30k. Of course it will be another buying opportunity if that scenario happen, but in case the price goes up, then we may have to wait.

Normally, there some holidays that always impact the cryptomarket so I expect the price of the Bitcoin market to experience some slight dump in price but that dip as some people think since the Chinese upcoming holiday is something that has to do with the Chinese tribe and descent. However, some investors could use the advantage of the moment for quick buy for some profit.

There are indications that this year's Chinese New Year will not make Bitcoin bearish, in fact I feel that many people will buy Bitcoin or other altcoins,
because in the pandemic all activities have been closed, tours are closed, and cannot have holidays because flights are also closed,
this is why This year is very bullish for bitcoin, if there is a correction it is normal, but it makes the market healthier, hold your bitcoin.

I think it will just go with the flow, last time I remember when we are bearish, during the Chinese New Year there was a dump, and people are speculating that the Chinese are liquidating because they want to enjoy their holidays so obviously they need fiat.

However, during bullish sentiments, I don't see any dumping, meaning its really up to the current sentiments. So for this year, I don't expect anymore of the selling because of the Chinese New Year.

For literary every occasion people say the same exact thing! They look for an excuse to hope for a drop and they have never happened for any of those occasions, sometimes they happen for different reasons which coincide with those occasions but never because of them.
From "it's the weekend" silly reasons all the way to "end of the year" reasons, none of them have ever caused a drop. For example the latest one was because of the 2021 new year and like every year people started saying "dump because of Christmas" and we saw that price actually went up during that time!

You got all your percentages wrong. The first one is only 3% and the second is 17% and the third is 50% (based on your own reported prices.

Not to mention that your prices are all out of context.
For example in the case of Chinese new year 2020 which was on January 25, price was continually rising from January 2 ($6903) for 17 days until January 19 ($9188) then the correction of that rise starts and price slowly goes down a little to $8252 on January 25. You can't possibly say this is because of Chinese new year and ignore the correction. The same exact thing happened in February or even last month or in November last year.

For me this is just coincidence, for others they always looks for some explanation as why the dump occurs and maybe it is just by accident that it fall on Chinese new year. I can only think that people who loves to speculate along this occasion is obviously looking for reasons to buy in the dip. The tricky part is that it is a miss or hit speculation.

Historically the dump always happen in the month of February and always coincide with the Chinese NY but I think this year will be very different from previous years it can dip but it will not take weeks maybe 1-2 days of correction or only just hours since many investors for sure are waiting for a big dip that want to enter this bitcoin FOMO after this new year will be very exciting for crypto.

A minor dip or correction in the price of bitcoin is very imminent during this year Chinese New Year But I don't see the celebration will cause any FUD in the cryptosphere, the event had been marked or celebrated annually without any much impact on the price of bitcoin we wouldn't notice any changes this year too even when the last Christmas was about to be celebrated there are some FUDs on possible dump in the price of bitcoin due to exchanging to fiat for buying of stuffs however the celebration doesn't have any impact on the price.

So the Worst Happened in 2019? and sad to see that we can experience this same at any cost because it did happened before .

Though this year seems very difficult to have this dump as the strong market keeps on showing us.

But lets keep an Eye and those who are not ready to Feel the fall then better back off first , but please be mind that all your actions will affect the market prices , so try to keep the holding to support he majority.

if im a buyer ill will my mark my calendar for that dates and im going to start saving starting from today because i know the pain of a buyer if they want to buy a coin but couldnt afford it because the price is costy .
 this was also a double celebration because we can celebrate the chinese new year together with the downfall of the value but im going to put more of my money in btc and not on the fireworks , charms and other traditional items because btc will give me a sure fortune .

That's also right as market is on fomo and many users are expecting to see a great bullish rally to get $50k zone as a new ATH. Likewise, it'll be a great oppertunity for future traders to get double profit from their both short position and long position if limit order hit.

Even if in Chinese New Year, bitcoin price can dump, I hope before it is a dump, bitcoin price can break the higher price first to make a profit, and then we can prepare the money to buy back at a low price.
That will help us buy more bitcoin at a discount price, and we can hold it again and wait for the next increases in the price.
But I am not sure if we can profit in the future trading because that will depend on the price movements.
I still try to figure out the right time to enter the market, but I will use regular trading if I think that is hard to get.

It is not just $50k but count it from there to $60k up to $100k. That could be the ceiling for this year just as what everybody is talking about the highest price that bitcoin can reach for this year. But all of those are speculations and it's very common to see bitcoin prices being told that way.
As soon as a trader sees a good price of buying, don't hesitate and doubt to do it. We're really different from the past and this signifies another bigger price that this bull run can bring.

Basing off on past years when Chinese New year is approaching then we can somewhat tell that this kind of tradition or event is a bit true but it doesnt really happen that it would be precisely to happen in next years to come.Thing here is that you should know on when to take up chances for you to buy when it becomes cheap so its better to have a good look in the market in times like this.

These are events that are happening once a year and the market doesnt precisely react nor move significant to this event and as usual this is really an unpredictable one.

If ever the price would dip down to 30k below then there are lots of strong supports on that area and its hard to believe that it would be easily to be broken
with just single event.Buying opportunities would really be into those levels or area.