Bitcoin Forum

I’ve playing with some historical data, and people  compare current bubble with that in 2013 and 2017, where the price increase continued for more than 6 months, and by the end of the year we witnessed correction processes of more than 70%.


We have strong numbers this year with the support of investment funds. current bubble may be different and correction may be longer and not only by next December.

I want some analysis of what will happen if we break the $ 100,000, or at least will we see a correction of 70% within 12 months? :)

If this sudden price rise is due to all of the big, institutional buyers we've been hearing about, bitcoin might not actually be in a bubble.  This might actually be sustainable, but I think it depends on the activity of the short-term traders and/or those who decide to cash out and take their profits.

Bitcoin's at $46.7k as I write this, and it's mind-blowing in the extreme.  It isn't as though it's hit $50k yet, but I didn't think btc would get anywhere near that level this year.  I'm proven wrong once again.

Considering on the current price then no one did really anticipate this.It is way too much for us to believe that it did really rise up on a short span of time.
I cant blame out people on not to think that this is a bubble but if we do back up with those significant adoption events then we can tell that there is really
something behind on these pumps compared into those previous years where price increase do came from nowhere, without news or fundamentals
that would really support its price or value but now we are really looking on different scenario.

Interesting comparison. But most likely a little incorrect.
1. At the moment, as in those days, the crypto market was, and still remains, speculative.
2. In 2012, cryptocurrency really was nothing more than a technological experiment. Its price was formed mostly by fantasies, and primary speculators
3. In 2017, although the market was speculative, it was already formed, managed and understandable. This was the next stage in the development of the crypto market
4. Now is the time when cryptocurrencies are a reality with which we have to agree, technology begins to penetrate into real life, technology is talked about at the state level on a global scale. 100k per bitcoin is only ~ 2x from today, and 1.5x to the capitalization of the entire crypto market. Corporations and large investors began to invest in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Perhaps these factors will not allow a big dump to occur, it is possible that this cost (+ / -) will be fixed, and will become some foundation for further global growth of the crypto market

Now the cryptocurrency market has become more mature and therefore differs from what it was in 2017-2018. Large business structures have entered the market, and even some government agencies are showing interest in bitcoin. They invest in cryptocurrency more deliberately and will be subject to less panic, so there should not be such a sharp and deep fall in cryptocurrency, as it was in mid-2018. It is likely that now we can expect a further rise in prices in the cryptocurrency market, and this growth may still continue for a long time.

I've heard some speculation says that the bull run may stop after getting to the peak, $100k is one of it but that could also be surpassed by another ATH which is likely to be said up to $300k.

Less panic and more trust from the people and this is what makes it more stable this time. Unlike the past bull runs that's made by FOMO and then was followed by a sudden panic that made it put into the bear market.

We can always look in t he past and could really make out some comparison and even some people who are really fan of connecting the dots when they do make out some future predictions.
There's always a presumption when it comes to that.For example on the month of March on where most likely Bitcoin is really on bearish status but what happened?It does on the opposite situation.
If we do reach up $100k then i dont really much to believe that bubble will burst but somehow i do believe on some serious correction specially to those who had bought on 40-60k price point.
Lets not really remove the possibilities of things because we have seen the scenarios that could really happen.

I don't know if you are looking $100,000 by this December . I think I'm not despite institutional investors rushing in and hodling. The small hodlers won't allow that because of anxiety to cash out and this is a reason. Bitcoin at the moment has been finding it difficult to over come the $60,000 stage and that for me could be a sigh of a major retracement that we can't predict how it will go but definitely not as going down much because more investors are waiting to get in.

I'm not sure about that, the chart will be repeated this is the point that i believe, Try to imagine if Bitcoin price pump massive do you think how many people will interested to sell their Bitcoin, maybe most people will do it. Do you think intitutions will not do the same?? My opinion Be careful this year, institutions have large bag, if they sell it you will see huge correction

Eventually, the bubble will burst though, just a question of when and what will be the top price. We have this kind of 4 year cycle, but since bitcoin's narrative has change because of institutions, we might see one super cycle, or maybe 2. But it's imminent, it will burst at some point, it might take longer though this time. Maybe $100k or even higher will be the top, so let's see how it goes.

I think Bitcoin having a bubble depends on how fast it goes up. No rapid rise to a blow-off top, no bubble. With the retail market much less FOMO-y than previous cycles, and institutions only gradually coming in and in small (for them) amounts they also don't FOMO in. No mass FOMO means no blow-off top, means no bubble. I think there's a good chance that no great big bubble will form, but instead we'll just see a gradual expansion of the market with plenty of corrections due to the lack of significant FOMO. Like look at NFTs right now - that's where there is crazy FOMO, but the larger crypto market and bitcoin specifically there's nothing like that right now.

I'd only expect a big bubble burst if Bitcoin shoots way up quickly, like if it hits $100k this summer and then a month or two later it's close to $200k, then I'd expect a crash back under $100k is likely. But I don't think we'll see things play out like that.

Right, as we can see the growth has been slowing down in the last 3 months and could take like the last quarter of this year to reach $100k or something in that ball park.

The burst of 2017 was rather fast, if we are going to compare them, the burst could had happen late 2020, but it didn't meaning we have a lot of room this year.

But the growth is slowing as we haven't seen a super fast rally. Although this year will be critical, if all other predictors like $200k will be reach then obviously, we are in bubble and what follows will be big crash.

I won't provide any technical analysis but every cycle won't be the same.  If it would be the same then everyone should sell right now because the correction should take it well under where it lies today. Peoe confuse one or two cycles with "this is what happens every 3-4 years".  There are different circumstances from 2013 to 2021.

You need to realise that you can't compare cycles this way. Just because BTC went 20x in 2017 doesn't mean it will go 20x this time around. Even if it does go 20x, do you expect it to go another 20x from $400K all the way up to $8,000,000 BTC? Obviously the cycle needs to stop somewhere.

Right now prices are very high and at times the algo bots are having problems keeping liquidity of some of the smaller currencies such as BTCEUR. Look what happened when it broke 50K euro, there was massive sell walls and not enough euro for the bots to arbitrage the trade and there was a huge arbitrage for a few hours.

Prices are always starting to get toppy now. If we are at $250,000 BTC, imagine how difficult it will get then when someone wants to dump 25BTC all of a sudden? Who will absorb all that liquidity?

OP, the expected time of “bursting of the bubble” will happen LATER because of the BRRR money-printing by the Fed and all the stimulus packages of different countries to revive their economies. There is also the threat of inflation/hyperinfilation, which some smart billionaires have started to HODL Bitcoin is a back up/fall back/hedge in case the government loses control of the monetary system.

I don't think the burst is gonna happen sooner, not with the amount of money being printed right now which promotes inflation and the 1% acknowledging bitcoin and actively investing on it. Plus at this stage, only the richy rich can buy tons of bitcoins at this price point and there's no one to dump this huge money to, because not everyone is comfortable in buying at this price range since it's already near the top of this cycle. Perhaps you can say it's a stalemate in the market right now since a few wants to buy and those who hold too much cannot simply dump it at the market since the demand isn't that good either.

There is no bubble and there won't be a bubble at $100k either, unless we start calling small rises mini-bubbles then we have to call small corrections mini-bubble-bursts. Then we had one just this month!

The 2017 bubble was going from $150 to $20000 which is 13,233% rise
The 2021 rise so far was going from $3200 to $61000 which is 1,806% rise
Even if the final rally reaches $100k it is still a 3,025% rise which is 10,000% smaller than 2017 bubble so you can't even begin to compare the 2 with each other yet!!!

Price in 2021 has to first reach $426,656 to be of the same size as 2017 then we can call it a bubble and discuss how the bubble burst is going to be.
In other words if the top in 2021 were $100k then there is no way it comes down because it is not even close to being a bubble.

And just imagine reaching $150k and then we see a dump of 50% at $75k, it is a failure or not base on that price? So there's a lot of factors to be involved here, just because we reach $100k and assuming that it will be mostly the top (which I doubt in the first place), we are going to see a massive drop. Institutions and billionaires are here, maybe retail will be the only one dumping if we hit $100k or more. But this big players are still going to hedge their wealth on bitcoin and I doubt that they will also sold it at the top.

And when bitcoin reach $100k most of the altcoins will follow just like the 2017 i can't say that btc will rise up to 13,233% or beyond but this is likely to happen in a long run

The “bubble narrative” was invented by nocoiner-trolls to scare the people away, and discourage them from hedging from the monetary system that they trust and believe in. It’s the same as the  “mining death spiral” narrative.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Exz-a6GXEAE7Jgp?format=jpg&name=large

Zoom out.

The market will still be the same, the people on the market is going to be the ones that is going to change. You are right that this year it is going to be different because with companies in the game, whales can't simply just drop the prices. If bitcoin is a bubble then it should have already burst a long time ago.

Look, I don't think anyone disagrees that the BTC markets are currently very frothy.

But just because a bubble is forming doesn't necessarily imply that it's going to correct any time soon. In fact, I do actually expect the run-up to $100k to happen without too much of a resistance. The market psyche is simply completely unpredictable when FOMO is so rife.

In terms of the 70% correction, I do expect it to happen as an eventuality. I'd say with some confidence that we'll see some sort of major correction before mid next-year.

The drop can be sooner than mid next year IMO. Taking the scene of 2017 bull , it didn't last the whole year before the cirrection started , it went down to bear. Bitcoin went this high because of covid-19 fears and many investors pushed money to bitcoin. So I think with the vaccine, there will be reduction of cases and confidence may return to the way things were. Some investors are not enthusiasts, so they may cash out anytime there is a little correction and that can cause drop.

Even if i accept that the price of BTCitcoin rallied this much because of the pandemic you cannot expect the market to return back to normal even if the vaccines are mass produced because the damage that has done to the economy is really high and most of the government were pumping money into the market which is not the best way to counter these and it can cause inflation in the long run. If your argument of panic buying is the main cause then that situation will relevant for the coming years as well.

My point of view is that many investors will book their profit and the major rally in the market is supported by institutional investors and it has nothing to do with the pandemic with the way they were investing and once they start booking the profit we might see a major correction.

Normally the panic scheme causes sales to increase, it can be said that now due to the pandemic Bitcoin rises much more, there are reasons not only for market speculation, but also for the ease of moving money without leaving home and in a way safe.

The correction is normal in the market, simply what can be done is to wait, but I do not think the same will happen in 2017, the downward trend came very quickly for that year, but they were other conditions, there was no institutional investment that now participates In the market, the living conditions were different, the panic was not latent as it currently is, I think that everything that happens in the Bitcoin market will be much more difficult to predict, as well as to predict the maximum that can reach this 2021.

Many bet that when reaching $ 100k this will explode, but although it will be many sales, I do not think it is the end of the bullish stage, the institutional investment that has arrived at the moment did not do it to earn little, they are doing it to win in big.

Im not really that considering because of pandemic on where people had putted up their assets on bitcoin or simply in crypto which it did made out some pumps.When
we do try to look back on where the price started to rise up on last quarter of 2020 until this very moment that we are currently experiencing.We cant precisely tell that
bear market would really be starting in mid-year but we cant really remove the possibility because we cant just see a market that would continuously rise.
There would be always a correction or selling point therefore bursting out is something that can really happen.

Bitcoin might likely surpass the 100k this year based on institution involvement and adoption we are currently seeing such as from Paypal and Visa, this year will be very huge for the entire crypto industry.

Bubble is not the right Word to use in this case, Maybe in 2013 and 2017 those can be bubble as obviously Bag holders are making their Move to pattern the movement and eventually drop the price to take small investors fund.

But this year? they cannot even make the market shakes and instead the New investors are Hindering them to manipulate the market once more.

This is what we called Real Pump and staying high .

It's already huge and we are riding on it, it's up to the whole community if they want this hype to continue, I don't see the price bursting too soon, we have a whole year, we have institutions coming new innovation created and big names in the investing industry moving towards Cryptocurrency, we'll have correction and dip, we should get used to it, but we are still good all through the year.

do you still looks for actual correction when we already had Last month when the value drops down to 47k ?

But of course there are chances that this was only a partial and the real Correction is yet to come .

Maybe 30k level? lets see.

These 2 terms are contradictory.
A "pump" is not real rise, consequently it can not stay because it is unstable and the resulting price is always above the intrinsic value hence a "pump" is always without exception followed by a "dump" hence creating the term "pump and dump".
Bitcoin is not a pump and dump.

Hopefully, the drops are not happen too deep, but who knows, that can happen later.
I still waiting for the bitcoin price to hit $65k because I think that can be the next target high price for bitcoin to increase, so maybe that can happen the next week or this month.
Yes, we already cross $60k, but the price seems to want to make a little correction before going up, so if that is really correction, you need to prepare your money to buy bitcoin at a low price.
But if the price still going up, you can sell your bitcoin at your target price.

I think after seeing the price now, we are due for a correction and 70% correction is possible in 12 months or more.

The price is already high but I'm not saying $100k is not possible, its just that I have a feeling that the price will likely to correct anytime soon and we shoudl be ready to witness a worst correction, maybe worst tha what happen the last time.

No way. I mean, we can take nothing for sure in the markets but I think reaching $100k is far more likely than a correction soon. We have high demand from institutions and also some retail investors, reduced supply (halving and people withdrawing from exchanges) and also massive printing, so the price has to go up. Also, in this quarter we are going to see more companies announcing that they bought Bitcoin in the first quarter, fuelling FOMO. Those are my reasons, I do not base them on a hunch.

I'm down for a mid-2022 correction, and I do hope we can see a lot more than 100k ATH but I think it's going to be so difficult for big holders to overcome the psychological temptation of selling at $100k so we might not see more than that, what do you think?

I doubt it's so much about covid though, just the problems of fiat (which was probably helped by covid sure).

It’s very debatable that Bitcoin is a bubble. It’s supported by miners, and the energy expended to mine all those coins. Zoom out and look at the chart. Is it a 10 year bubble? If it’s a 10 year bubble, then it can also be on a path to be a 20 year bubble. But by year 20, everyone would be saying it’s not a bubble. 8)

20 year bubble that would sound funny lol ;D

We can only attach the word pump and dump to altcoins, pump and dump coins have a short lifespan in the market, something that is not applicable to Bitcoin, and other top coins in the market, we can use the word adoption or strong buy support in place of pump, I never support pump and dump coins because it has no value in the long run.

We have been witnessing some huge surge this year and prices have went high to $60k this time and after market correction we are once again touching $59k mark with some institutional and retail investments at mass level.This is showing signs of btc becoming mainstream and adoption at large scale.So now the main point is bearish trend may come but in the long run we will see only bull market as we have seen in the past.2017 crash was extreme situation which is not possible due to back up by market investors and adoption by major institutions funds will keep on flowing in the market.So just HOLD.

I think even if we have a 70% drop, which I think we will not have one at all, it will not be that big of a deal if we can break over 100k. I think we will reach to a point where it is like 120k and then drop to 50k or so, that seems reasonable and I think it may happen as well. It is of course not easy task to reach there, but I think it can reach there eventually.

We can't go up forever, it is impossible for us to reach a billion dollars right? That means it is impossible for us to reach to a  certain level for now, we don't know what that is but there is a number, whatever that is we will get to somewhere near and will start dropping from that level. Of course, it is going to be a bit difficult but I think we can manage it and we will probably end up with a "lower" price that could be maybe even higher than the current price or at least close.

If I put Data and math aside .. I'd say it's gonna drop more than 50% soon , my point of view is that those huge company that invested millions/billions dollar in bitcoin will release their holding once the overall economics backup. That's my gut, I had it.

This cycle is described as the super cycle; where the institutional investors especially in bitcoin will be holding in a different way, they are not planning to sell even in the parabolic at any price. Just like gold is been hoarded in some countries irrespective of the scarcity and price, they will still hold. We may not see the 80-90% price dump like in previous years, so the possibility of holding the price above 100k can be seen and Ethereum may attain a new role with the exciting use cases.

I don't think that bitcoin will hit $ 100 this year, but I do believe the price increase will continue. because bitcoin this year is a little different from the previous year. large companies and even some government institutions have adopted bitcoin. now bitcoin has been widely accepted by most people. so the chances of it dropping to 70% are very slim.

Everything is open, Bitcoin reaching $60 is beyond the expectation of many of us here this year, we are only on the fourth month of this year, there's still a lot of things that's going to happen for the rest of the year, good things or bad things we never know, investors just react on every news that comes along, so $100k is still possible but not guaranteed.

$100 ?? "lol" you missed the letter "k"

Bitcoin price drop till 70% is impossible again nowadays.  every day we hear influential people and big companies falling in love with Bitcoin, the last thing that made a scene was the confession of the hot girl "Paris Hilton" who said fell in love with Bitcoin on her Twitter account.

I wouldn't bet on it. There will still be those who say that Bitcoin is a massive bubble. Maybe Peter Schiff (if he lives that long) or someone like him. What difference does it make? We must learn to ignore them and have confidence in our vision (Satoshi's vision) for a better future.

Actually, people can only use data as a reference to predict what will happen in the future, but if we talk about the future, this something mysterious, no one knows what will happen exactly, are you will sell it, hold keep hold it, or what? The decision is yours so whatever you decide don't regret it

We shouldnt really anticipate much because we dont know on what would be the possible peak for a particular period of time.People are just way too fast or in a rush
when guessing or expecting for a price without even minding the probabilities of hard correction that might take place before on having an another bullish run.
For now the price is steadying down and moving sideways but its good that it hadnt any signs of drop or crash which might indicate that we do really have some
strong support with those low levels which we can presume that dropping way below is unlikely to happen.