Bitcoin Forum

Found this interesting piece that goes back into history and tries to identify why a rally will sustain or not -
Some valid points - some not so agreeable -  essentially gist is that institutional investors/backing is driving the rally - so as long as there are new ones, ( like the recent BNY Mellon ) , the rally will continue

https://pythoslabs.medium.com/why-bitcoin-is-here-to-stay-b4e9a032a0f9?sk=a06522d2191a6a821b78971e427494d0

Still boils down to the basic supply and demand, to make it simply. And currently, exchanges are running out of bitcoin because institutions are buying in bulk pushing the price higher and a super fast rally. Although bitcoins narrative has evolved, as more players are entering the picture, the basic law of supply and demand will explain everything in a nutshell.

The easiest way that I can think of is when the people are talking about it positively and negatively because of the prices. People will not bat an eye when they see that bitcoin doesn't do anything smart or stupid so when the prices go up, they talk about it day and night, when the opposite happens, they still talk about it day and night. And I am not talking about prices just going up, the increase in the prices needs to be sudden that people gets caught off guard.

It is difficult to know if that is a bitcoin rally or not, but you can check on the market to know if that is a bitcoin rally. If the price moves fast and trying to increase and break the high price, it could be the rally comes to bitcoin. But that can not be the sign of the rally or not because it could make movements from the bot that many traders use, so we need to analyze more to find the real rally.

As far as I know, all of these let's call them big players buy in the background via OTC and thus minimally affect the price. If Musk bought say 40 000 BTC, is that really a reason for the price to increase instantly by $10 000? I would say that it is not, and that the current price is the result of great news that only added new fuel to the existing FOMO.

Despite all the purchases that have taken place in the past 6-8 months, it should not be forgotten that there are probably millions of BTC for sale - some publicly on the crypto exchanges - and some via OTC which is obviously very well stocked, and it can still meet all needs.

Public opinion is largely based on the fact that miners produce only 900 BTC per day or only 27 000 per month which is actually a trifle compared to today’s demand - but it is completely ignored that many have started emptying their bags and slowly selling their coins making a profit while the price moving upwards.

In conclusion, I would say that there is still enough BTC for everyone who wants to buy it - and all those millions will not disappear overnight.

PythosLabs is two months old now but still valid (before the 40+k rally).

Bitcoin is here to stay. Every second person now wants a piece of the action and is pushing the price even further. 2021 will be an exciting year.

Personally I will not bother to try to do such things, many claim to have some kind of way to identify a bull run from a movement that is just temporary, but to me that is just impossible, if you do not want to miss a bull run and be left behind like so many people before you then you need to remain invested in the market, you do not necessarily need to hold your coins forever but at least you need to keep one part of your capital invested in the market of cryptocurrencies at all times and then once it is clear that it is a bull run then you can invest the rest of your capital.

It is really not that easy but you could be ready for it as well, that is the point of it. For example, I know how to do it with my trading bot, not that I use it much anymore but I know how to do it on my trading bot (no idea how it is done in exchanges itself), you think 50k is a barrier and if we go beyond that price will be going a lot higher?

Even reach 55k+ prices if it moves beyond 50k+? That means I can buy a buy order at 51k for example, so when price reaches 51k, I will buy, and I will put a sell order at 55k and sell when it reaches that price and make nearly a 9% or so profit from it. That is fine by me and I think that should be how it is done. That is how you get ready for a rally, you will never know when it will happen, you will never know how it will happen, but you will be ready for it when it happens and even if you are sleeping you will be taking advantage of it.

I havent read up the link but basing off into the topic title itself about on how to identify a bitcoin rally? then it would be evident if we do see greens that shooting
up in a short span of time but it is already late for us to determine with that earlier but basing off for some fundamentals then you can actually presume out
that it will possibly happen but it wont be a precise thing for you to rely basing of on your investment decisions.Also talking about sustaining bull run
then it will always matter with the demand but dont remove the fact that there would always be a selling point or time where correction do really happens.

Trend spotting? But the problem here is how we draw the trend line or graphs. If someone is not adept to this kind of technical indicators, then it's hard to identify when the price will rise or when the price will fall. So we need to learn some basic technical analysis. But be cautious, although it can help us identify when the market is about to make a break out run, don't used it as the only factor in our decision to entry or exit at that point.

There's really no one factor that can tell if the price will go down or up, much more on a Bitcoin rally, I am not a very technical person when it comes to graph reading but I like the speculation topic because from here we can here the potential movement of the market, all I know is you need to get updated and always read on what's happening around us, we'll get a clue on where the market is going or there will be Bitcoin rally.

So far the "rally" has continued as long as there is no bubble to burst. It stops when we enter a big bubble which bursts fast and the market enters the bear trend for at least a year.
Considering the fact that we are not in a bubble now and far from it, we can safely conclude that the rally will continue for the foreseeable future. This trend can last until the end of this year at the very least.

The whole hype of the "institutional investors" thing is just another reason people use to justify the rise for themselves just like when they come up with slightly irrelevant reasons to justify the small to big corrections or the bear market itself.

I don't think that pouring billions into the bitcoin market can be dismissed as hype, don't you think?
We have never seen something like that before in the bitcoin market: mt.gox and willy are thousand light years away now.
I am an uber-bitcoin maxi but I'd never be as sure as you are to safely conclude that this rally will keep going.  Nothing is certain here.

That, is technically correct. As we all noticed, institutional investors, and even billionaires are buying Bitcoin and even local government units like Miami has been engaging into Bitcoin. I guess that would be enough to say "Bitcoin ain't done yet, there's something more than just hitting the $50,000 mark. "
Without these influence and interest, Bitcoin may have never reached this far.

We have so many people who only look at their profit and the price of Bitcoin in the market but do not care about the technology behind Cryptocurrency which should be the main attraction of those who will adopt it, it's not about hitting a certain mark on the price but more so on the usage of this technology.

It was as early as November that people were already saying that we won't be seeing anymore of the typical Bitcoin rallies of the past. I mean, the long winter was already stretched out, and the end of retail fomo suggests there is no more parabolic potential (not to the extend of 2017 or previous cycles anyway).

I wasn't so convinced yet, especially when the rally actually did start more or less six months after halving, much like past rallies but I do agree the parabolic growth of the past can't happen anymore. I mean MicroStrategy and PayPal and Elon Musk together combined still can't (yet) take Bitcoin to 50k, let alone 10x of old ATH.

In any case, this is a rally. It's just probably never going to be the same as the past any longer.

You mean bitcoin will get into bull run if there will be institutional investors? I wonder where these institutional investors went in 2018 or 2019 after the strong bull run in 2017. I mean these institutional investors are the actual triggers of the bull run or just catalysts of on going bull run which is usually initiated by bitcoin halving every four years? There could be multiple co-incidents but we need to be practical when it comes about identifying the bitcoin rally.

One simple solution here is buying around the times of bitcoin halving will not make you disappoint you as per past history. Like many people, I am also expecting bitcoin to have at least 10x growth from 2017's ATH this year or by the end of the current rally. So, even today is not too late if you have spare funds and looking for perfect entry to make use of on-going rally :D.

Usually the faster it goes the more vulnerable to hard corrections it becomes. Another important factor is the type of investors. If something becomes adopted and used, or companies (like Tesla) are buying, the rise is sustainable. When investors are normal poor people who want to make a quick buck, just because they saw they neighbor do it, the rise will turn into an unsustainable FOMO rally.
2013 was all FOMO and wash trading from Gox and China, that's why it corrected so hard. 2017 had less of it, 2020 much less than the last 2.

Agree, until there is no bubble to be burst, then this bull run will continue and I'm thinking that a bubble could form once we reach at least six digit as this price could be the big mental price that everyone is waiting for.


Perhaps this are people who wanted to see the price going down so that they can enter the market again at a cheap price so they preach that $50k is the mental barrier that we can't break and if ever we broke it, bearish sentiments will take over.

My experience from last bullrun years, has not been expected and from now on after bearish market has moved on, I've been able to determine btc rally through daily monitoring.
Everytime the price goes up, I recorded all the graph and project on my computer. On that aspects it will help us see how the market went on and progress can be transparent compared to those who never exert some efforts.

I'm not claiming to be certain, this is just an speculation based on the facts and observation of the market over the past decade. The signs are pointing towards a continued bull market for at least a year but of course anything can happen in bitcoin but we can't speculate based on what may or may not happen.

As for the hype, you are forgetting that this past rally bitcoin has gone up from $3k to almost $50k over the course of 2 years. How long was the institutional investor hype? 3-6 months? That is why institutional investors still remain only a small part of the reason why price has been going up.

I would say you are both right and wrong. First of all before any of this companies bought bitcoin price moved only from 3k to 10k levels, that was what we did all by ourselves and maybe a small help from them without too many billions or anything.

However ever since the price hit 10k last summer, grayscale and microstrategy started to buy bitcoins, and that is what allowed us to reach to 40k+ prices this easily, not because they increased the price all by themselves but they have brought a huge help to the fight and price of course went up a lot thanks to that ammunition as well as what we were always doing. You are right that companies are not the only reason why bitcoin went up, but you are also wrong that they are nothing neither, they did played a big role even if not the only role.

Basic rally for BTC occurs above the 12hr average recently and occasionally it pulls back to the 2 day average.    The more severe sell might return to the weekly average but in all instances the rally is merely cycling through various rates of gain and has not failed at any point.   Its worth observing and noting as we reach each point, always there is some doubt but its been bullish a fairly long time and stayed within this idea when in a period of rising price.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/AjpJ2.png

This is BTC price action testing the 12hr today,  but price action above this measure of momentum means we are extremely positive and its +5% +11% so far so yep.

indicators can identify bitcoin rallies, such as RSI, MA and MACD, yup that's what is called the golden cross, we know that the golden cross on the big MA on a large time frame has experienced a golden cross when the bitcoin price is below $ 10k, to be precise during the pre halving yes even though there is a shadow at the price of $ 3800 because many are panicking selling, bitcoin is still staying in its bullish zone, and now the price of bitcoin has reached 5x!

I understand why people want to identify trends before they happen but I keep thinking that it is a waste of time and the reason is that there are a lot more movements that show all the characteristics that they could become a trend and then nothing happens with them, how can you distinguish between those movements that seemingly had all the characteristics necessary to become a bull run and that later you find out that they have failed? To me this is something impossible to do which is why if you want to take advantage of a bull run then you need to remain invested in the market no matter what.

Another useless fact is that if you end up buying right now, you will make money later anyway and there is no real need to catch trends unless you are a very medium term trader. The fact is that if you buy at 50k and then price drops a lot, you can wait, and maybe wait a day maybe wait a year maybe wait a lot longer but it will eventually be 50k+ and you will make a good profit eventually, or if the price goes up it goes up and you do not wait at all.

So, if you try to wait until you catch a trend, you will end up waiting for a long time and maybe even fail to get any type of trend and not make any decent money right away, which means you will have to wait again, whereas if you just buy right now and keep on waiting you will eventually make money sooner or later. That is why I do not think "finding the right price to buy bitcoin" is a smart move.

Read the article which mostly covered the past events related to crypto market and the conclusion says bitcoin is going to stay due to influencers and institutional investors? I will say no to that because crypto is community driven which is existing since no one ever believed about bitcoin is the new future.

Bitcoin will stay as long as people are supporting it so keep our hope and accumulate more.

Exactly, even those that bought at 20k during the end of 2017 could have more than 150% in profits if they held their coins during those 3 years, that is still way more than whatever you can get on the stock markets and that is when buying at the worst possible time, anyone that bought during 2018, 2019 and 2020 would have significant profits just by holding their coins, so trying to identify when a trend begins seems like a huge waste of time, and yet people want to do it despite the fact there is no asset that has better performance than bitcoin.

I think an easy way to identify a bitcoin rally is when you got your friends texting you how to buy bitcoin or when you turn on the news and they keep talking about bitcoin over and over again. Also another good indicator is when celebrities who have no investing experience what-so-ever decide to buy crypto and then they pump their coin all over twitter.

Bitcoin entered a parabolic stage when Elon bought BTC and we broke the $42K area a few weeks back. All the indicators are over bought and eventually there will be a blow-off top coming sooner than later. Then we either go to decent support like $30K and maybe we might go higher from then on.

However if bitcoin goes up $10K everyday for the next few days then don't be surprised if it ends up topping at $99K and a bear market starts for the next 3 years. If you are in profit then take some profits off the table from time to time. We already hit $1T market cap, won't be as easy to hit another $1T in such little time. Won't happen overnight. There are too many people expecting $250K bitcoin in like a month or two, I just don't think that is possible.