Bitcoin Forum

I have been reflecting on the combined outcome or the compounded outcome of the recent happenings in Bitcoin adoption.
Here is my reflective thought.

I have relearned that btc price increase will not only be caused by the four years periodic halving.

1.   The btc halving was a major cause of btc price increase because it reduces the number of btc supply by ½ in every four years.

2.   The Adoption of institutional Investors: I have realized that btc will continue to rise and perform well as an asset due to the activities of these powerful financial entities. By extension, that means btc price will rise and the value will increase more frequently.

3.   The Elon Musk and Public Corporation Adoption: I feel this factor is higher in ordinal ranking than factor 2. With the investment of $1.5 bn by Tesla in btc and acceptance of btc as a means of payment for its product has led to the surge in the value of btc. By extension, other companies like mastercard, Amazon, Uber etc will follow such epic leadership.

Deductively, btc has a very powerful growth force supporting it. So, if one should predict that it will rise to $100k this year I am not surprised.

What do you think? 

In my opinion, these points are quite reasonable and have been proven when it was recently that it was not too surprising. maybe we are getting used to the turmoil of the bitcoin market which is how to walk sideways. but what if at this time we heard that the fate of bitcoin was at stake in America, as if bitcoin was collided with the position of the dollar.

I think your third point is yet making reference to the second point, institutional investors. I think for me the institutional investors are one major factor that bitcoin is on the increase if Elon Musk invested or uses bitcoin for huge institutional payment and Amazon and others are part of the bitcoin adoption then we see it is the institutions creating such bull because of their huge transactions.

It has become very clear that btc is not competing with any fiat currency being the USD or the China’s yaun. This is because the world has seen that btc is even more valuable gold which is the  standard of fiat.

Well,  they only have to accept this fact and seek for ways to explore it.

While certain news and events will most definitely move the markets, in the end, it will all completely depending on one thing, just as with any other markets— supply and demand.

Why isn't the price up to the moon yet? A lot of people especially in 1st world countries simply don't see the use of it yet. On the other hand, bitcoin is a total no brainer for a lot of people that live in countries where their government has totally went ballistic(like Zimbabwe and Venezuela).

At first people couldn't imagine that bitcoin would reach it's once all-time high - $1000 but it happened after the previous halving and still was the sensation. Then we reached 20K USD, we went from $600 to $20 000, amazing jump in a short timeframe. People were saying that bitcoin would reach 5K, 10K, 20K and most of us were thinking they were trolls and just saying something unrealistic but seems they were true, somehow true.

Right now, Halving, PayPal and Elon Musk's words had a huge effect on price but somehow people didn't catch the Visa's words/statements, it's very curious for me.
Btw we may see the 100K USD in near future but at the moment, somehow we can't reach the 50K barrier despite the fact that price become 49K. At some point I thought if we reach 49K, then it's guaranteed to buy bitcoins cause people always psychologically prefer rounding of numbers.

About the halving, we all know the effect it has, but probably we should stop discussing it for the time being. If you understand what I am saying you would and just focus on the rest news and tell everyone about the fourth halving,when the time is right. Because now everyone is in a speculative rally that started by the halving, but nobody gives attention to the next one, so stay low, bury the halving for two more years and we remember it again when the time is right.

bitcoin halving is good for bitcoin.
bitcoin adoption by some big institutions is also good.
but, how about some well-known influencers that overexpose their bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.
people (their followers at least) will starts thinking crypto as their one-hit wonder that can make them rich. just hit and run.
I am not talking about Elon Musk but the narratives now said that he is a "crypto pom-pom" guy or the new Mc Afee.

I don't want people trapped with those negative stigmas, because we will have exponential growth of the people with misleading information regarding bitcoin.

this is the worldwide google trends for the past 90 days for "Bitcoin".

https://i.imgur.com/1zeSCck.jpg

There should be a combination of events that culminates in a rally, halving is a major factor and you need huge investment to come in for the price to go up  as well and these institutional fund houses were investing in bitcoin well before the halving knowing that the price would rally and then PayPal including bitcoin was another factor to breach the resistance we had and crossed the old all time high valuation and if you look at it, a combinations of events was responsible for this rally.

And that is why analyst or even crypto enthusiast saw that bitcoin's narrative has developed and change a lot in the last quarter of 2020 and up to this point because of point number 2 and 3. For big companies, bitcoin became their safe haven for their assets as hedge against economic inflation. So there's a wave of money coming in today and in the next 12 months that might push the price to six digits or even more. So yeah, don't be surprised if something big really happen this 2021, led by Elon Musk.

Exactly right and that mixed it up.

For point number 1, if we trace back the previous halving result we saw there that Bullrun comes right after the next halving and its results after a year and now, we saw that it is true, after a year we experienced a bull market. The plus factor that bitcoin maintained on the top and never pullback is just because there are too many supports like adoptions the points 2 and 3 which makes bitcoin price going strong.

It looks like a joined forces that makes bitcoin skyrocketing too much in the market.

We can really make out some comparisons between year 2017 and into this year basing off only on the level of adoption.This might be the sole reason on why we arent
crashing as of this moment where the market wayback into this time or duration we are already plummeting but now we are definitely seeing the opposite thing.

All of those things mentioned above are way indeed the closest reason on why this market is holding up strong until this very moment.
Those are bullish news that do talks about adoption.

Lets hope for more adoption news like this for this market to fly up even way more higher.

OP I have the same thoughts like you about the current bull run. It is being spearheaded by multiple factors not just 2020 block halving event. It just feels like institutional folks realized that Bitcoin would see become scarce in the near future as it nears the 21M total supply. Additionally, there is an overview bull run sentiment above traders so much that more than enough people are on the buy side rather than selling.

Right, but you have to understand that everything started from block halving, as it reduces the number of new bitcoins being generated, thus pushing the price even higher because of high demand from retail to institutional investors.

So block halving and then the cascading effect that we have seen today after May 2020, and now we are reaping (enjoying) the rewards just like the past block halving effect.

First of all I would like to point out that Elon Musk and Tesla should be under the factor 2, because it’s also an institution/company, Tesla is a company and that investment should be under the number since the 1.5 billion dollars that you’re talking about wasn’t coming from Elon Musk as a personal investments, rather it came from money that belongs to the company. So, it should be that at that place.

And then as for the companies you stated in number three that are planning to or are already accepting Bitcoin as a payment method (though I know very well Amazon shouldn’t be there) , I don’t think there ones are contributing to the price, unless they are actually buying it with their cash, if not, then they are contributing to the increase.

don't forget DeFi. thanks to these projects the market has become livelier. although it did not have a direct impact on increasing bitcoin, but defi was successful in attracting people to invest in crypto. defi is becoming a new trend in the crypto community and is one of the most popular development concepts. proven because currently there are many defi projects being released.

Unfortunately, people from such countries are those who are the most affected by high transaction fees. It's one thing to pay $4 for moving $1,000 and another to pay it for moving $50.


Well, if you think that Bitcoin is growing because of things like Elon Musk's support, then $100k might be hard to achieve - you can't expect such big events to occur regularly and for a long time.

its nice how you connect the dots . now newbies that have just enter the btc world will know if where the increases came from and they wont wonder anymore  but its not the btc halving that made the btc price grow because halving will be totally useless if there are no investors but big investors like elon musk and other institutions plays a major role in the recent increase in the value of btc  . anyway when was the last time btc halve , are we getting closer to the next halving we better prepare/buy now before more increase come

The three factors enumerated above are indeed the catalyst for the recent and ongoing bull run we are experiencing right now. And this is not just one factor but all three making like a whirlwind and falling at the right time and right place. The halving happened months ago, but there was no immediate rise but when institutional money started trekking in that was the time that the spirit of Phoenix rose and then the force is taken to the max by the involvement of Elon Musk. The convergence of these factors pushed Bitcoin up and right now there is another trend that is coming and that is the increasing interest of the retail investors -- the cause of the last bull run in 2017/2018.

Does anyone else believe that the institutions in the U.S. have only started to HODL Bitcoin because hyperinflation has a high probability of happening, especially after the Fed’s BRRRRRR money printing plus the coming Economic Recession caused by the pandemic?

Elon Musk is only one contributor to the bitcoin market and there are many influencers like him in the past, JP Morgan's CEO Jamie Dimon, John McAfee and I feel normal to see Elon Musk officially brought his company Tesla to the cryptocurrency world.

In reality, Elon tweeted about cryptocurrency years ago and he has big love in Dogecoin.

Halvings are the tip of iceberg and it helps people be aware of the bitcoin existence, the scarcity of bitcoin. Halvings create chance for social media and news media to seed bitcoin more. It is not wrong to say as you did but the bottom of the iceberg is bitcoin scarcity. The more people realize the scarcity of bitcoin, the higher price it can touch.

It happened in 2020. Grayscale and many companies, institutes join the market. Observe their investments and reports at Bitcoin Treasuries (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5280947.0)
https://bitcointreasuries.org/

The magnification on Elon Musk and Tesla investment are not necessary. They are only a sand in the desert. More institutes and bigger capital will be flown into bitcoin.

i disagree with this , the movement big company like Paypal, MasterCard, TESLA its somehow given a perception to major people about what it is bitcoin for real ? i mean , "why they bought bitcoin , can i have bitcoin too ?" , its will bring a big FOMO.

unfortunately, i am not U.S citizen , but if i can give speculation, there may be several institutions try to HODL bitcoin,because basically institutions will choose gold or silver right ?

Actually MasterCard, amazon, uber already following the footstep of both first PayPal and now Tesla, giant corporation involvement have a by far effect on the astronomic growth of btc price, whether we like to admit it or not, PayPal did pave the way, PayPal drop their announcement and the whole btc market was growing crazy, it was a perfect timing so to speak,
this is the beginning of more giant companies inclusion in the space.

It looks like that we can’t see Bitcoin anymore to drop below $40k ($30k worst case scenario) anytime soon. The reason why it’s almost impossible for Bitcoin to drop way harder is because of the institutional investors continuous enthusiasm in getting all-in to cryptocurrencies. With these effects that you have mentioned, I had no doubts that Bitcoin might surge to $100k this year.  

yes, the decline is inevitable because its an asset that must rise and fall and also due to the work of speculators. but, the fact remain that the correction will not be as it used to be and it wont be very big because of the activities of investors who are waiting to buy when there is a small correction.

It is beyond a temporal effect, but a changing effect.

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I am glad that btc had reached its ATH today when it reached the $50k . This is a dream come through for many people especially retail and institutional investors as it has validated the profitability of btc as an asset class. Imagine, Tesla bought btc at $38K, he has made $12K profit per btc. That is very amazing, isn't it?

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

Many people not believing bitcoin would reach 50k by March are now becoming more faithful to the coin's ability. This goes tp show that with enough encouragement, even those critics of bitcoin may actually be persuaded to purchase it and include in their portfolio. They will be very important in the future success of bitcoin. Sooner or later the decline is going to happen, but let people have their way with it for now. A lot of us have waited for this moment. The decline can happen but the people have to enjoy this price point while it lasts.

They are not yet done and we are surely be expecting more market spikes to show up. I can't be negative but could be done soon and these institutional investors will stop accumulating Bitcoin pushing the market to drop again but I was thinking of a huge drop neither.

And in regards to seeing $100k, that seems too high, yet it was not impossible if this current momentum will continue. But, it gonna be a long wait for us, and not even sure it will reach within this year.

I agree that it is not only the Bitcoin halving that has caused the current increase in the price of Bitcoin. But there are some factors that are much bigger
in effect, like the shilling done by Elon Musk and also many institutions that buy Bitcoin in large quantities. These two factors have a very large effect,
because if we look at the price of Bitcoin which has gone up very high since these two factors happened.

It has proven that it has a very powerful effect on the increase in Bitcoin. Apart from making the Bitcoin price go up, Bitcoin fundamentals are also
now much stronger than Bitcoin in 2017. So this year's bull run is likely to last quite a while. And yes, the $ 100k target should be very easy to achieve.

The bitcoin price increase is not only caused by the 4 years halving but it was the strategy that always creates new market ATH price. However, it was implemented by Satoshi to control inflation in the Bitcoin market.

Bitcoin halving doesn't reduce BTC supply, it only reduces miner's rewards to create a limited market supply. Having said that, Bitcoin's total supply can not be reduced or increase.

Hopefully the new Bitcoin ETFs being approved in Canada and hopefully USA will leave those factors for dust :)

Indeed, the Defi Effect should be added to the effects causing the rise in the price and asset status of btc. It holds a huge promise for the industry. According to Mark Andreeseen, what the internet did to information is what cryptocurrency will do to finance. It is interesting that all financial services is being digitized using blockchain, thanks to smart contract.