Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin had a relatively rough time last week as it plunged by more than 30% after reaching a new all-time high of $58,000. The main factor of that “massive” drop was most likely the action in the US Treasuries market.

Because of the market general view that US economic recovery will speed up, which will then force the Fed to think about increasing the interest rates earlier than expected. The 10-year Treasury yields rose to 1.60%, the highest level in past one year. Furthermore, the $1.9 trillion stimulus package also suppressed the bitcoin price.

Since bitcoin and US Treasury are considered as hedging assets, one becomes more attractive will discourage that of the other.
However, BTC/USD has recovered in the past two days as the yields appear to be softening, and strong institutional support. From the fundamental aspects, Bitcoin seems to be more bullish in March.

BTC/USD Technical Outlook: Bullish Signals Appear
On the 4H chart, Bitcoin price has broken above 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The 15-period and 25-period moving averages weighted have formed a “golden crossover”, which is a bullish signal. Meanwhile, BTC/USD has also climbed above the first support of Pitchfork indicator and is approaching the 23.6% retracement level ($51,400). If it reaches $51,400, the bullish run will continue.

Support: $48,500, $47,000, $45,000
Resistance: $49,500, $50,500, $51,500
https://i.imgur.com/6traSbb.png

if price breaks the $50k resistance once again then there is a very high chance that $51400 is going to be surpassed immediately too because of the FOMO that always takes place after breaking such resistances.
there has also been a lot of FUD that led many people to believe this was the end of the bull run (that was just started) so they sold their coins and are so eager to jump back in (a bigger FOMO than usual).

Today's peak was $50k and probably $51k isn't too far to reach though, so expect at least a $3k increase just like today, and yes $3k bounce is pretty normal in the next 2 days.

I agree, the FUD around the market collapsing has caused many to liquidate all their holdings. With BTC clearing off 50.5K nicely would like improve people's sentiments and because of FOMO this might be the catalyst for another pump. Of course, this speculation does not include institutional behaviour but it is something to consider also.

There is no fear for Hodlers,
If you hold your Bitcoin for long term then you don't have to regret it in the future.
If you are doing short-term trading then it is sure you will fail to catch a big Pump.
There are too few traders who are in profit in long run, cause they are all-time having mental stress and sell their coin when it pumped a little.
So, instead of doing short trading, it is better to hold your coin for the long term.

As we continue to monitor the market, there is no doubt whatsoever that in a couple of days, we will be happy once again and the predicted 80k ATH by mid year is still very much achievable. I am particularly excited for all those who bought more BTC during the dip.

Its only a matter of time, it will be this week for sure. A lot of weak hands are looking to get back
in after relinquishing Bitcoin last week and realise yet again Bitcoin isnt going to $10k.

$50k resistance will be broken again

Oh I never seen the price to bounce to $50k, but you are right, it reaches as high as $50,127.51 in the last 24 hours, so it's a good sign already, although when I check the price goes to $47k.

And now that the Asian market seems to be active this day, I will not be surprised to see the price hovering around $50k or even more. So it's important that this resistance should be broken, sustain in the next 2 days.

This is the big number for now, I'm sure when $50,000 is broken again, we will see another massive spike because usually this whole numbers are big psychological barrier for majority and once it is surpassed a new set of FOMO will come it.

And it seems that the sell-off pressure is gone for now, the market has been shaken again. And then they realized that $10,000 is not gonna happen, LOL.

HAHA it is always a very small percentage of the traders that are "weak hands" and believe the FUD to panic sell their bitcoins thinking price is going to dump ridiculously low regardless of the fact that we are already in a bull market having a big rise every 3 weeks on average. So they are bound to run out of coins to sell very soon which is why price is again knocking at the $50k door.

The institutions knew about it. When the exchange rates fell to $43K, there were reports that the institutional investors have stepped up their purchases. Those who purchased back then are already at a 20% profit. Individual investors are losing out, as many of them can't afford to hold on for long term. They get alarmed by the volatility and tend to become susceptible to panic selling. I don't know what proportion of the total circulating supply is being held by institutions at this point, but the percentage will definitely increase in the near future.

an "investor" is someone who holds for long term and if someone isn't doing that or can't afford doing that then they are NOT investors, they are day traders.
and a day trader who gets alarmed by the very normal volatility of bitcoin market and ends up panic selling can not be called a "trader" they are gamblers.

so in other words those whom you described here are simply gamblers who end up losing money which is nothing new.

The feeling of regret when we all hesitated during its bull run last year.

Oh well, at least I got some during the recent dip and hopefully who knows, 6 figures by the end of the year?

FOMO is bound to happen when $ 50k is broken back again. We can see that many investors are starting to come back at this time. The price went back up and tried to break the $ 50k mark.

When FOMO occurs, this will break the full bearish history of March. expect a drop to the price of $ 10k will not be possible and it is impossible for now.

we just wait for the next spike, can bitcoin reach the new ATH again.

Would love to see that and even it takes up to the end of the year, that's worthwhile.
Just as what we used to say, buy the dip while others are waiting for more dips but you don't know if that dip is the actual dip.  :P

That's only possible if sellers don't come back to sell this local 3 days top. But if it goes ahead to break through and achieve $51K again, next lap should be $55K. We had some more bitcoin investments inflows from more institutional investors. I  think I read somewhere that Microstrategy added more Bitcoin's to their already heavy bag of Bitcoins. Another way to think about it is to buy even when the dip gets lower. At least it would bring your average down to a considerate level.

Individual investors fail because of their lack of knowledge and experience. It will change if they spend time to read the past history of bitcoin, cycles and how price was manipulated by news. They will understand better about bitcoin if they care about and step up to read and learn.

With better knowledge, they will have bigger belief and reduce their unreasonable panic sellings.

Institutional investors succeed as they have better knowledge and solid belief in bitcoin and they are more confident with their investment. Big or small capital does not make sense as your entry and exit price will make up your profits or losses.

50k resistance doesn't need to be broken again, it was just the ebb and flow in the price but it will ultimately go back up, I like to think of it as a low tide in the market. I don't know if I should feel bad for this weak hands that are buying back the bitcoin because they thought that the dump season is going to start because they are the reason that prices go up but at the same time they are the reason for a continuous price dump when a sudden dip in prices shows up.

Its quite funny to think that there are still some investors who are hoping that Bitcoin @10k USD will happen.
Panic sellers are gone for now and we are in a short rise as of now (price of BTC @ $49,663.10). I don't want to spoil though but I'm thinking that there is a chance that we might test the support the OP has been shared to us especially the $45,000 price. Overall, as a long term investor movements like this doesn't bother me. Those short term investors and traders are the ones who are panicking right now (or at least).

If you follow what most of the investors are doing then you will regret what you decided. Being a contrarian sometimes is good. If they are selling, that is a good opportunity for you to buy and vice versa. Now those who bought at the dip or accumulated before the bull run are the ones who are having the most profit now. Those investors who aren't following the herd are the ones who are happy right now because of their decision.

6-Digit price by end of the year?? Might be but the chances of it to happen is low IMO. If that happens then good for us hodlers :).

I really agree with you about people having to understand more and experience better knowledge, because someone fails because they are lazy to receive updated information that allows them to understand the current situation.

Likewise, about the development of bitcoin, we know that bitcoin is very unpredictable by the way it works, but from the experience we have, we can understand the flow of bitcoin habits itself.

but to be more precise individual investors still don't understand, but now they are also getting smarter and many are starting to keep up with developments, although it is clearly different from institutional investors who are indeed jobs that have been involved for a long time. they will clearly better understand the state of bitcoin when to buy and when to sell so they can make a profit.

Sadly to say that right now Bitcoin going down again to 49k, the prediction is correct and it reaches 52.3k USD this day, I think there is still correction going on, in its price, this could be good news then?

No need to be sad, a downtrend means an opportunity to buy more ;)

The correction has improved sentiment for the market this week.  The new 44k is the big hit last week, and the $ 49k is the new defensive threshold to be dominated by the market, the 51k - 49k range is likely to be broken on the right diagonal movement. 
If this time they break the ATH of $ 58k, it will continue with new momentum to reach $ 65k.  At $ 49-50k today, I bought some, just a little and watched more.

I'm really disappointed that the BTC price didn't crash to 20-30K USD.
I really wanted some cheap Bitcoins. ;D
The current price is 49.8K USD,so we are heading close to 50K USD.All the FUDsters will have to shut up for a while and a new FOMO phase might begin.I don't know what triggered this price pump.Institutional investors and crypto whales buying more BTC during a price drop means that they have huge faith in the future of Bitcoin.The institutional investors are here to stay.

Yeah me too, I had my fiat here sitting doing nothing. I was waiting that it would go down dramatically but it seems that there are a lot of strong hands and influenced hands that are hodling their bitcoin. FUDsters will never shut up, you should know that, they will say something about bitcoin no matter what the current prices is. Whales and institutional investors do not have faith, they bought bitcoin because they want to get a bigger profit margin and they want to have the power to move the market.

An old member such as you should already know that the bitcoin big drops during its bull run can not exceed about 30% drop. The price in this step went from $58354 to $43021 which is a 26.3% drop. Expecting gigantic market crash down such as 65% (to $20k) is naive!

This is also not a pump, it is the adoption continuing to grow and as more money comes in the price keeps going higher. There is nothing to be surprised about...

Well it is a good news when you are going to buy in this dip.

Right, it reaches $52k, but wasn't able to sustain it's run, there is selling pressure and now the price started to slide again. But nothing to worry, we are still early in March and we might bounce back to above $50k again. As we all know off, institutions keeps getting their bitcoin during this dip, so it's a win-win situation. No one is selling at this point except weak hands.

Yes. You still continue to buy if you've found another dip after you've bought. That's another purchase that you need to consider if you're disappointed.
Just buy with another capital that you have for bitcoin and just like what it is today. It's going to be back again to $50k anytime soon.

Even though currently the Bitcoin price has dropped back to the price of $ 48k, there is no need to panic, because I believe that in the near future
the Bitcoin price will rise again above $ 50k. So take advantage of this drop in Bitcoin price to buy more Bitcoin, so when the Bitcoin price goes up,
the profit we make will be much greater. I really hope there is positive news regarding Bitcoin at this time, so it helps push the Bitcoin price up.
Because I didn't have the money to buy Bitcoin anymore, I decided for now I just HODL the Bitcoin which I already have.

This is just another bump in the road, nothing more.


We have been in that price range, we have taste it, and we wanted more. So I think it's just a matter of time before we can go back and bounce back to $50k and even more. Nothing specially about being HODL, you just have that mentality that in the long run, bitcoin will go higher and higher even 6 digit mark.

That is literally saying they are nothing like regular investors? I mean you started the message by saying they are like ordinary investors but then you said that they have huge capitals, they have more influence and they have reserves to do more as well, we have none of that, so how can they be similar to ordinary investors?

The reality is that they are soooo rich that they can wait however they want because not like they need money, not like they may have some family emergency, we could suddenly need to sell all our coins and even need more on top of that with one health emergency. They can also buy more, they buy more than anyone else because that is what you can actually do when you have tens of billions of dollars, we can't, what we add would amount to nothing, and they can influence the market in the end as well, we can't do anything like that.

Right now whether it breaks the ATH or not will depend on what is going on with the global markets. Especially the oil markets and yields. If you plot a correlation with SPX you will see that lately they are closely related to one another.

This is similar to what happened exactly 1 year ago with the coronavirus crash. The stock market started to crash and bitcoin started to follow. And right now its no different. The stimulus news is bullish however lately there is way too much bad news going around. Its also very strange why GBTC has such a big discount. Never seen it this low for such a long time.

I guess the Coinbase IPO will be huge for BTC however it depends when it goes live. I am predicting its going to be months before they go public and hopefully by then the global events won't get worse.

Correlation that is only true for a tiny amount of time is just a coincidence. To have a correlation between two markets they have to first be directly connected and second to change with each other for a long time, at least 6 months to a year. A couple of hours or days is not a correlation at all.

Check altcoins for example. During the whole lifespan of the altcoin market (about 10 years) in 95% of the time they get dumped each time bitcoin makes a move. That is called a correlation.

And then stock market continued to crash while bitcoin recovered.
Then stock market recovered a very small amount while bitcoin was setting records.
Then bitcoin continued to soar and break its previous ATH while stock market didn't do anything.
....
This is why there has never been any correlation between bitcoin and any other markets.

My prediction is this uptrend will continue until 65K level. No chance to hit the 44k level again. Let's see patiently what is going to happen.

I think that $50k will be a resistance level for some time to come.

People are a bit wary now after BTC failed to breakout to above $50k for a sustained period of time on numerous occasions. With the adoption of the digital-CNY starting, investors will also be more careful in terms of evaluating BTC's potential usage case as a global medium of exchange and reserve currency in the future.

But that's not to say that the bull market is now ended - support at $40k is just as strong, and we'll likely move sideways between this $40k-50k corridor for some time to come.