Bitcoin Forum

Hi, why is the bitcoin price increase or decrease seemingly attributed to economic issues of the day?  A recent headline said Biden's trillion dollar package caused the price to hit 60k+.  Surely bitcoin is purely based on supply and demand isn't it? 
Thanks.

Yes but the demands could've been caused by an external factor as well; take for example Dogecoin which rocketed after Elon Musk tweeted about it and Bitcoin when Tesla bought into it as well. These would influence the demand and probably cause more people to buy/sell it which would then result in a new equilibrium formed with the supply/demand curve.

Even if the news influence/instigates what the price of crypto-currency will do, it has to do it this way, disclaimer, -am not in the saying that Elon musk or any influencers on social media influence the price, nor any government-, so if any influence affect bitcoin/crypto-currency price, it has to go through demand and supply, for explanation if the influence is attractive then the demand goes up, then affects the price and vise versa.

I mean, it is, though?

For example, let's assume that why bitcoin hit 60k was 100% proven because of the recent stimulus package. Supply and demand in this case still takes to effect, because we can assume that the market demand for bitcoin increased because people suddenly have more money to spend(because of the stimulus money) and buy bitcoin.

This.

Also, Bitcoin's market cap is currently north of $1 trillion (current price * circulating supply). At this level, there is without any doubt that institutions are backing Bitcoin. For example, Elon Musk disclosed Tesla bought 1.5 billion in Bitcoin back in January. When institutions are involved, price manipulation is thrown into the mix. If a company has enough capital, it is possible to raise and lower the price of Bitcoin to shake retail investors (people like you and me) into selling their coin. Then, that institution will buy your coin at the discount you just provided them.

Buy and hodl.


I disagree here. How does Elon Musk / certain governments not directly influence the price? Elon sent some tweets out about Doge and propelled it into an entirely new price bracket shredding old all-time-highs before bitcoin was north of 50k.

It is indeed depending on supply and demand but we cant really cross out those external events that do happen in the economy neither it is connected with finances or with some
adoption news then it can really make out some significant effects thats why anytime there's a news then some of people do really take it seriously and do apply it into their
analysis aside from those technicals that they had made.This is one of the things should be watched out because not all would really be making some
effects to the market.

Thanks for explaining. I do get the fact that the trading by the big players affects the price.  But still don't get how Govt actions unrelated to BTC affect it.  The comment that people suddenly have money etc........nobody has been given it yet, and the likes of us mortals won't be given enough to fritter it away!

I don't know about doge or alt-coin, I don't follow any of them for now, but for bitcoin, Elon musk or any other influencers can't take glory of bitcoin passing 40k or 50k US dollars, he might have attribute to publicity or strengthen people to want to buy, but this is one part of many parts, people would still do there research before they buy

Yes, it's coming in March 17th. If we're going with the bitcoin-rises-because-of-stimulus theory, we could say that people are making assumptions that bitcoin's price will rise after the stimulus checks are distributed, because in the past, bitcoin rose in price after the past stimulus checks were distributed(whether if this is actually what caused the rise or not). And with that, since people are making assumptions, we could say that the demand for bitcoin rises.

Most people getting the stimulus , they do not need it , now what will they do with extra money ?
Invest in stocks ? But the market is falling .
Invest in gold ? But it's over priced right now.
Invest in property? But it's extremely expensive.
How about investing in an asset which was already bullish 3-4 times this year , returns are instant and you do have every control of it. So people decided to invest in Bitcoin and at the end of the day it has been the most amazing investment for most people.
- whenever you see a lot of Investments pouring in , it does mean that there is scope of the price increasing.
It is the demand and supply rule only! More people now want to invest in Bitcoin for the price but at the same time they have to understand that the supply is limited thus causing the Increase in the overall price.

In simple terms it is related to the decline and increase in bitcoin based on supply and demand. it as a whole, but if it is described in detail, it will contain several institutions, companies that have funds in bitcoin. without realizing the government will be the same, only they do not publish it directly in order to protect its name and reputation within the scope of the government. We cannot deny that the economy has experienced ups and downs in correlation with bitcoin. the reason is, bitcoin can make the economic system skyrocket when various institutions make requests in the form of bitcoin.
Then in the context of Biden it is not much different, there is a link between Biden and the economic growth caused by Bitcoin.

Yes, people do their research. Not everyone though. That's for sure. Some people will also jump on a bandwagon instantly if they think they are hopping on quickly enough. Look at the AMC / GME stock craze. Not everyone did research there. People swarmed because they thought they could ride [what came to be] an extremely volatile wave. A lot of people lost big. There was absolute price manipulation by institutions because they were about to lose at their own game.

Tesla buying over 1% of the total BTC supply surely did something to price. It gives Bitcoin a bullish outlook, and that alone is enough "research" for many people (myself included) to buy. If anyone is dropping $1.5 bil USD into anything, it's for a good reason. Money talks.

Some institutional investors are probably speculating that because of this stimulus, the dollar value will fall on the global currency market. You understand that the value of the dollar is also determined by the law of supply and demand. So, if the supply increases significantly, the value must go down.
Right now, we're getting some evidence of this dollar selling.

As long as they keep printing more dollars, the price will rise, because of the dollar's inflation. But that's not the only reason (obviously). If Biden announces anything related with the dollar, then there may be panic from the market. Biden is the reason, but not the cause of price's increase. It's the thought that Biden will affect it that causes it!

Supply and demand have nothing to do with these abrupt changes in the price. (that usually don't last long)

The price of Bitcoin as well as everything that is offered on the market is determined by supply and demand. When the demand for bitcoins increases, the price rises, and when the demand decreases, the price decreases.

It is normal for certain news of the day or actions by political forces to influence to the supply and demand.

The price of Bitcoin is not set by any authority and cannot be regulated, so in this sense it's indeed dependent solely on demand and supply. However, a rapid increase of demand for Bitcoin, for instance, usually has its own reasons which may lie in events like stimulus checks or news on big investments of reputable companies in Bitcoin. Similarly, FUD and trigger a decrease in demand of Bitcoin, so the price goes down. For instance, a year ago, the price dropped after the announcement of the global pandemic by WHO. So some events can indeed affect the demand and thus can be helpful to understand why the price moved up or down significantly over a short period of time.

News in the world does not have much impact on BTC pricing, but news, as major companies and market giants continue to invest in BTC, more and more players enter the market. No one is interested in the collapse - only growth.

A lot of things can happen at the time same and one can be termed as coincidence which is the case of this stimulus check. we are witnessing the inflow of top people that are buying into bitcoin without any announcement. the move of bitcoin is not tied to the stimulus pay. its not a once off thing, its a continuous move.

BTC is worldwide not only US.
There will always be news that you can correlate. Doesn't make it true...

On the one hand, this is so, on the other hand, the United States is one of the leading economies in the world and its influence on any processes is much greater than any country from the second hundred, isn't it?

As for the questions of the author of the topic about supply and demand, it must be clarified that we are always talking about effective demand. And everything immediately becomes clear  :)

The European union apparently has a bigger economy than the USA.
Taking into account all countries that are not the USA, I can say that the USA could be a big influence but they don't dominate BTC in any meaningful way IMO.

That said I don't believe the stimulus check will be more than a short lived blip on the bitcoin chart :)

That is true but it should be taken into account that US dollar is the strongest and the most traded and used currency in the world. It also holds the status of the world's main reserve currency and is held by many central and commercial banks around the world.

Yup but that doesn’t really say anything about the influence of the stimulus on BTC.

I will say that economic issue is so affected to people mentality. So if you read bad news about economic issues that will make some people sell their Bitcoin and price will dump. The good news about the economic issues will make some people buy Bitcoin and the price will pump. Actually, whales behind the Bitcoin is connected with economic in real life

It does to some extent, but it completely depends on what the news is. Remember the China FUD of the past years? Whereas it's said that China is going to ban Bitcoin mining or Bitcoin in general? Yea, it's a safe assumption that those news negatively affected the price in the past.

Well, I'm not even close to being an expert, so this is all pure speculation, but I think it might to some extent.

Take this news article from The Financial Times, for example: Biden’s stimulus will affect the whole world (https://www.ft.com/content/6684463d-2db2-44bd-ae97-f2b4f32133b3)

Obviously the markets got the message, and made merry. Stocks rose, but so did gold and crypto.

Then I’m the only one that is seeing bitcoin going from 60k back to 56k  ;)

I don't believe Biden's trillion-dollar package helps Bitcoin to touch 60K+. I believe BTC is gaining popularity thus demand is also increasing and that's the reason for the price increase. Yes, I also believe bitcoin purely runs on the Demand and supply concept as we all know the supply is limited so the price is increasing accordingly, and I hope it will continue to rise whether there will be any stimulus package or not.

Law of supply and demand, speculation, fundamentals and sentiments of the investors are some of the factors that are driving the price of Bitcoin increase or decrease.

I don't think that it really is the reason towards Bitcoin hitting $60,000 but the sentiments of the investors towards that news made it go up. They believe that it might be a good time to buy since money has been distributed to these Americans and thought that most of them will invest it into cryptocurrency.

Everything is based on the supply and demand theory. Hence, bitcoin is absolutely driven by the supply//demand theory. There are people who want to buy bitcoin and others who want to sell bitcoin. And it is precise that those who want to obtain bitcoin has a stronger force and they continue to maintain the uptrend with their money

And as bitcoin becomes bigger every day, it has now played an important role in the global economy. Money that is put into bitcoin strengthens the internet and makes many people become wealthier.

In order to launch the price into space, it is not necessary to dominate among the large players - the main thing is that other players act at least not against you. I have not heard anything about the sale of bitcoins in Europe  ;)

By the way, it's rather funny that the news of such a large economic entity as Tesla about the sale of cars for bitcoins did not lead to any positive effect on the market.

Several factors could really affect the market.

1. Supply and demand
2. Fundamentals
3. Unknown movements from whales behind
4. Shills specially from known personalities or companies
5. Politics
etc.

As a crypto enthusiast then you should know on how to take stance with these kind of situations.

It is true that Bitcoin does move based on supply and demand, but to increase demand for Bitcoin, various factors are needed. Such as the stimulus
checks provided by the American government, Tesla who invests in Bitcoin, Elon Musk tweets about Bitcoin and others that can make demand for
Bitcoin increase. Whatever positive news about Bitcoin can increase demand for Bitcoin, therefore there is no need to be confused by the drastic
increase in Bitcoin. There must be a trigger factor that causes demand for Bitcoin to increase and ultimately can make the Bitcoin price rise.

Yeah surely pure based on demand and supply, but for people who have lots of money they maybe we can say that they can control a certain% of price. Even so, they can't fully control the price and back to the first rules, Demand and Supply. Scarcity is also an important side of bitcoin

There is something that I have learned from the market through experience, when the important movements of Bitcoin occur, whether up or down, there will always be news to support the reason why it fell or rose, but never the price of Bitcoin you will instantly react to news unless it is a Fundamental.

Many times people when they trade based on news tend to fail. If the price of Bitcoin obeyed each news it would be something impossible, the only way that it can obey a news is a fundamental, as for example in 2020 the covid-19, the price of Bitcoin fell abruptly, only in that way is it possible.

There are reasons that are very difficult to determine, according to Jesse Livermore, one of the reasons is because of the Strong Hands' plans, which is due to plans that have been managed for months, and that is why they decide to make Short or try the offer by raising the price.

Another factor is emotions, emotions are an important factor, for me it is the second reason why the market moves. And the other reason is human, that is, if a Strong Hands or whale needs money, what it does is sell, which is unlikely, but the option is latent.

BTC is volatile and most often been driven by fundamental news and technical. You need to get acquainted with this and follow influential that knows what they are talking about

News is part of the picture and helps form sentiment in price but thats largely related to speculation and the frothy top prices to BTC.  Its probably actually more profitable to pay attention to the base price or lows that BTC forms and the trend there but thats also quite a boring picture formed over years.   Economics, trade deficits, fiscal budgets and monetary policy are relevant to dollar strength which will relate to a dollar price but I think ultimately BTC isnt about dollar specifically, FIAT perhaps but it has to make its own progress and justify itself with efficiency lacking elsewhere.  

At present with dollar lame and limping with constant new supply its a poor definition of progress for Bitcoin.   People who write finance news do this across the entire industry, its free association and I presume raises views by including those who are already aware of other subjects.

Depends how you define that, quite a few will speculate on the price purely and never use the Bitcoin.   BTC resembles something of a commodity with global clearance and fixed supply, most commodities can increase production so this one spikes alot more but I also think its dangerous to ignore how many hold without actual usage.

People want to make a profit from bitcoin, and that makes the price change every day.
So far, the interest for people to buy bitcoin still high, and even if the price is too high for them, they are trying to buy bitcoin, although that means they could only buy bitcoin with a little money depending on the money they had.
So bitcoin is dependent on supply and demand at the market, so the price moves from a lower to a higher price, and the higher price goes back to the lower price.
If a good news release can trigger a good sentiment in the market and people will start to buy bitcoin, the price starts to increase. If a bad news release, people do not want to lose too much, so they start to sell some bitcoin while they want to buy back again if the price reaches a low price.

Before the market could have demand, there should be trust first, trust is everything in Cryptocurrency, you are buying because of the trust, so far Bitcoin and other top Cryptocurrency are enjoying the trust from investors and traders and, that is why Bitcoin is setting up new all-time high records one after the other.

Trust only in the network and the code that secures it, not trust in anything else like the project's intentions (which if you actually believe is not for profit then you probably deserve to get scammed).

Trust not in the words and hopes of others who tell you you will get rich.

Trust in Bitcoin being secure for a long time and even more so in the future.

The demand for Bitcoin can increase, there must be a reason, there can be many factors that make the demand for Bitcoin increase. Why these
recent economic issues could trigger an increase in Bitcoin, is because the economic issue associated with the stimulus checks. Because most
recipients of this stimulus checks use to buy Bitcoin, this is what ultimately makes the demand for Bitcoin increase. So not all economic issues
can make demand for Bitcoin increase, we must first look at its relation to Bitcoin.

Because People inside crypto is also a people that spend the currency/fiat so they are all affected in what is happening outside this market.

But we see how functional Crypto is when the major crisis like Pandemic happens people turns towards this market for assurance , things that they did not see in banks.

You must have trusted this first before you will finally admit what can come in your way either losing or gaining.

Simply the supply of bitcoin will never get affected by economic issues of our day to day life but demand is not like that. When either one of supply or demand is getting affected that will definitely result in changes in bitcoin price levels. This is what exactly happening with every commodity and every commodity is getting its value because of changes in its supply and demand and bitcoin cannot be an exception.

In other words, when an economic issue is affecting people in a way like they will be left with excess money then demand for bitcoin will increase and the vice versa also will be right. So, we must understand that the economic issues are the actual movers of bitcoin prices.

Agreed! and we can not avoid that changes in the supply and demand part but it is really up to us holders whether we would like the prize to go up or down, we can relatively doesn't have control over it because we all have different views on what are we going to do with our hold cryptocurrency

Simply a person with weak hands would burn from the raging sea of fire if he would sell on early but for hodlers that have patients in waiting there can be a special treat for all of us.

All investment market is based on the economy, especially the Cryptocurrency market, where institutions and companies are now investing in the Cryptocurrency market, they can now create demand, pumps, and drops it has become the playground of big companies, very much different 5 years ago when even a group of small traders can make an impact in the market.