Bitcoin Forum

Thinking about recent price action, and that it seems institutional buying has slowed compared to Dec/Jan, I think it's possibly we might not even get a peak this year.

Grayscale has slowed down substantially, granted there are now more and cheaper paths to access bitcoin now as compared to end of 2020, but institutional buying does seem slower than a couple months ago. And I'm saying that is a good thing! Institutions are clearly continuing to come in, but they aren't FOMOing. And retail market is nowhere near mania FOMO levels either.

Institutions seem to get wary any time price jumps significantly, and probably feel more comfortable buying in when the price isn't hitting ATHs. Given that it seems we're getting a decent correction every month, the market overall seems to not want to allow parabolic runs to go too high and become unsustainable. Unsustainable parabolic moves is how we get blow-off tops and crashes. With a more mature investor coming into the market for the first time this cycle, it is definitely possible we don't get a huge blow-off top this year, but instead just a gradual grind up in price in a way that lasts far far longer.

This could be how a super cycle plays out - years of grinding up, with very regular corrections to keep price appreciating in a stable manner, and institutions gradually moving in more and more whenever they feel price hasn't gone up too much recently, and some of them taking a little off the table when they feel it has gone up too much, as compared to the past cycles of mass retail FOMO leading to huge blow-off tops and crashes and crypto winters.


Thoughts?

Naah, it looks less likely.
We just had a 1 day more than 10% drop on some vague "someone sent 1 bil to exchange" info.
It does not behave like a mature market. Maybe at $5 or 10 tril it will be one.

What exactly is a peak Price, Bitcoin has set and broke several ATHs this cycle, the most recent which is $60k+. That is far higher than the price targets most had for this cycle.

Could be in for a very long sustained bull market?
A presumed stall in the flow of institutional money into Bitcoin is not enough indicator to predict that we have a more mature market now or that we would experience a much longer bull run. We are entering spaces of uncertainty, where Bitcoin users would not be able to judge current market action using previous events.

It is clear that institutions are not characterized by selling en masse at the first of FUD and neither are they characterized by compulsive buying due to FOMO. If we continue with relatively steady and spaced out buying by institutions, which is what it looks like, we may enter a supercycle, although it need not be as exaggerated as Dan Held predicts, with a price cap between $800k and $1M, but volatility has to slowly moderate.

I still think we are in repetition of 2015-2018 because 2018-2021 is still very similar to 2015-2017 that it surprises me how similar they are. The current price and the struggle ($60k) is exactly the same as price back in 2017 ($3k which was similarly 3x the previous ATH) and from market behavior, whale manipulation and even FUD is the same too.

That means unless in the next 9 month something major changes we won't see a long bull market but instead another massive bubble (with same size as before reaching $500k) by the end of 2021 and a long bear market in 2022.

institutions are not buying on public exchanges
if they were we would have seen a 50k bitcoin buy in december(elon)
there was no december elon spike. meaning he didnt grab from public exchanges
there was no doubling of volume on one specific exchange to indicate a sudden buy up.


the february price frenzy was not based on (elon)institution buying the coin in february.. but speculators and hype traders buying based on the NEWS of elon announcing he bought coins 2 months earlier privately
all exchange volumes inflated in parallel from news hype.. meaning it was general market sentiment. not single whale trade caused

.. anyway

looking at the UTXO movements of the last 3 months
only <2% own coin at a movement sentiment of $60k.. so not much support to keep it at $60k
however 75% will refuse to sell below $37k. because 75% of coin movements moved while prices were over $37k

so if we call $37k a good support line of 75% support to keep it over $37k

thats then ~$23k of pure speculative hype bubble.. which could correct itself

Well, no, $60k is far lower than the price targets most people had for this cycle, which is why anyone who has been in the market for a while expects the bull run to continue. $100k and up is what most of us have been expecting for this year, for a couple years now.

And peak price means the peak price before a big crash. Like in 2017, 2013, 2011.

The run in the past few months has actually been pretty different than the one from 2017. Price this time started shooting up at half the ATH and once it broke it was gone for good, instead of hitting the ATH and then seeing a bunch of volatility around it for a few months. Corrections are more frequent and price rises are shorter this time around. And obviously institutions are a major player now while in 2017 it was entirely retail. So market behavior and market participants are quite different. I don't know about whale manipulation, but of course the FUD is the standard stuff that never changes. It could very well end up the same way with a big blow off top and a big year long crash, but there are definitely big differences between this run and the 2017 run, and definitely reasons to think it will play out differently as we are already seeing it do that.

if institutions are buying on binance or coinbase the prices will extremely be going to climb instantly. but that is not what they are doing, more likely over the counter. the indicators are telling traders the market is submerging but we are able to hit ATH almost every month. that's like establishing another big cycle and it's going to be a sustainable bull market when this happens in about 2-3 months soon.

Most probably, yes. I have the same thought. Though we all know institutional investors, big names, and companies are still coming in to the market, but the price action alone could tell we have yet to see the peak of this bullrun.
As we all notice, Btc will only suffer a short drop/correction and tends to bounce back breaking strong resistance levels.
I personally think stimulus is also one of the few reasons for this continued bullrun.

It's normal for the institutional investors to buy lower amounts,when the price is very high.
The "more mature investors" that you are talking about are Grayscale,Microstrategy and Tesla.Maybe other "mature investors" will join the BTC market during 2021,but Bitcoin will remain unstable and volatile.
Having more long term mature investors doesn't mean that the BTC price will become more stable.It's actually quite the opposite.More BTC will be out of curculations,which means less market supply,which means bigger price volatility,if the demand for BTC increases. 

also remember Public listed companies in the U.S have to notify the SEC before they
can buy Bitcoin and that takes a few months and then they have to make it public
knowledge the amount they bought. So public companies who were interested in buying
in either January, February or this month havent bought yet.

Private companies on the other hand can buy immediately and they dont have to tell anyone.

That's how it's expected to move. It won't be the same most of the time that we get to see a $1k-$2k increase per day, there will be those days that there won't be that much motion at all or instead, it's the price that keeps on falling.

It's not always that we get to read news about institutions buying and fomoing at it. We've peaked at $61k+ and this correction could lead to another pump up to $65k-$70k.

This slow modulation upwards keeps the average-Joe-gung-ho-weak-hands out of the game which is good.
The later they get in the game the higher we go.
Any ETF like approval could blow BTC to insane levels which would be even better  8)

We can't be just growing by the thousand of USD each day. There has to be a correction, a point where some Bitcoin owners or investors think that they are at the right time to sell before buying back at a cheaper price. This is just a perfectly normal market taking place. The price moves up and down every minute of the day but generally up in the long term. Someone has to sell for the buyers.

the upward movement will be sustained as long as we have it slowly and with enough corrections so that it keeps the day traders happy when they take their profit and the panic sellers and bear whales bankrupt. so far we have been seeing this type of rise with a lot of healthy corrections and that is exactly why the bull market still continues.

I certainly hope so, I mean who here doesn’t want the price to soar. 2021 is a really bullish year for the price, the halving has been & gone, supply is drying up, institutional investment is coming. We could see over $200,000 per bitcoin this year.

I'm coming around a bit more to the "slow grind" theory, BUT we are still currently in a parabolic uptrend.  If that support line stays intact and the rally keeps accelerating, it could become very unsustainable in the short to mid term.  We shall see.

What if these corrections and slowing down of growth will be viewed as a signal that there won't be any exponential price growth, so those who are hoping for it would just take profits and dump their coins that they might have hodled for years? This could trigger a bear market, and the institutional investors could be considering this scenario too - maybe they wouldn't mind Bitcoin going down, so that they can short it and then start accumulating again at the bottom.

Nah, $5 to $10 wouldnt be still enough.I would say that $20T will really be most likely for us to go there.I dont know on what are the qualities of a mature market but i dont really
believed that we would really be sustainable since from the start.Of course lots of recognition and strong support will really be mold on as we passed for more years to come but
nothing is assured and im aint really a fan on concluding up things specially on sustainability because this market can neither shook or really surprise us
on the least we expect.It is just that you should really be prepared always on the possible things that could happen.

The dow jones had extended bull runs lasting years on end.

Soooooo  I would argue Btc could have a two- three year run of which we are only six month’s in counting 2020 Sept  20 or so as a starting point.

If so a slowly upwards move with small correction then new ath may just carry on and on and on.

Time will tell.

If the correction is slowing down, I think we do not have to panic because we can still use it to profit, although that is not too big as before. I do not think that the hodler will sell or dump their coins at once because they want to see bitcoin price at a high price and sell it. Even if they do that and trigger a bear market, that will not be a problem to people as they do not see the price is down in a fast way. I am sure they can start accumulating more bitcoin at a low price. Maybe the price will be more volatile in the future, especially if the price hits more than $100k. But who knows for sure about that.

You can't expect companies to keep buying constantly, they have bought over 20 billion dollars worth of bitcoin total in the past 400 days or so, that is more than enough for us to go up and we did that, you can't expect that to continue, what should they do, keep buying billions of dollars worth of bitcoin once every week? That would omit all the money even wall street has in a few years, that is not realistic to expect.

This is why I think it is quite important to realize that we should not put our hopes into these people, let those companies do whatever they want and we should try to move bitcoin up ourselves as well.

If we let it be like this, that would not mean anything nice for any of us, we would just be people who sell and people who hold, rarely there will be small buyers, then hope big names protect us, that is not going to fly, we should be able to at least keep the price around these prices with our buys.

Everything depends on the market, bullrun depends on the market supply and demand if the demand is high price will simply rise and if the demand is low it will fall. I believe that the pandemic is one of the factors that affect the crypto market the demand is getting more high that is why the price is mow rocketing, maybe more people now see how important crypto is, and they start believing in cashless society in the near future.

bitcoin will clearly create a new world with an increasing movement from last year. but it must also be noted that bitcoin will always make corrections every time it creates ATH, this should not create excessive fear because usually after a correction the bitcoin will immediately increase again. this makes bitcoin a short-term transaction.

anyone who can take advantage of this will certainly get very good results. because the difference between increases and decreases is quite significant, but once again the funds that must be provided are also large because prices are already high.