Bitcoin Forum

Miners are hodling more bitcoin might than ever, the selling rate has dropped so low in the last two months compared to the previous years where the selling rate was 87%. Is it a positive sign or a negative? Or are we expecting another dump as they did some weeks ago at $43k? Seemed like the price of bitcoin is gonna rise above 75k dollar as predicted in the next few weeks.

Is it a good sign for bitcoiners? Or we should get ready for a massive dumb incoming?


https://i.ibb.co/RgVGjkQ/20210324-152137.jpg (https://ibb.co/6yfcX7D)

indeed said that worry might be much more dominant than relaxing, because in mathematical calculations this means that the lower the sales level, the lower the bitcoiner range to have a lot
amount of bitcoin.
we identify that in fact what appears to be rapid growth, but behind this results in an imbalance in prices that cannot be reached by traders. thus, it is better to be worried and careful than to feel safe.
  a fall in prices was not expected by the big holders, but even higher prices on the other hand overwhelmed new adopters. high prices are for big money holders, while low prices are desired by all.

Miners might be holding for the short-term, hoping bitcoin keeps achieving new all-time highs, but I can't imagine that they're going to hold their mined BTC for the long-term.  Not that I have expertise in mining operations, but I'm assuming the costs involved in running a huge mining farm have to be paid for with fiat currency (like the electricity bill for example).  They're going to have to sell eventually.

It's in the miners' interest not to crash the market, so I would think that the bigger mining operations would consider how to sell large amounts of bitcoin without moving the market--e.g., not dumping a ton of it onto the market all at once.  But who knows?  I think it's smart for them to hold what they can, as this bull market still has some powerful legs, but miners aren't in the business of speculating on bitcoin's price.

Why sell much when a little portion of  0.02BTC could settle electricity bills and other maintenance costs I think they are in for a long hodl waiting for the price to hit $70k then dump it all, when the price goes down they buy again..

This should be a worrying aspect for the ordinary users. Miners can't hold on to their coins for too long. They need to take care of the expenses - such as capital expenses (mining rigs, cooling systems.etc) as well as electricity costs and taxes. So holding on to the coins beyond a certain period is out of question. If there is a major correction, then we can expect a mass dump from at least some of these miners.

If miners are holding then surely they are aiming for short term profits because its been the all time high and its not going to get long further in this bull run or atleast how it is supposed to be so if there is start of dump surely the prices will go all the way and it will be the beginning of bear in my opinion.

I see this will keep the Bitcoin price from dropping below $ 50k again...
we already know that holders are 'fortresses so that prices don't fall' and if there are more and fewer people who sell, the Bitcoin price will last, good news IMO.

We still need the demand so we can sustain from a good level but if there’s no seller and no buyer at all, the price will enter into a sideways trend that may result to the big drop sooner or later. Miners are holding Bitcoin for some reason, maybe they are still expecting a big up, or just waiting for the right moment to drop the market, its hard to know why miners suddenly stop from selling.

Overall holding only increases upward pressure since by obvious reasons less coins get released into the circulating supply.  Less supply on exchange means demand, if the same, would have to buy up the price.  Interesting chart ypu have here never really looked at miner hold rates.

If they are multi coin mining like I do and believe in BTC. They hodl the BTC and sell the other coin.

I mine

BTC I hodl all of it.
LTC I hodl most of it
Doge I sold a lot at 6 cents now hodl it.

eth I dump 95% of it as it has real issue if its leader fall dead  tommorow.

Many miners do what I do.  So I don't see this at all like the op suggests.

He also needs to understand even if you are all btc coins were 29k Jan 1 they are now 52K.

If you were 100% into btc and cleared 2k of 29k selling off 27k for bills

you now clear 20k of 52k. selling off 32k for bills if you added some hash.

So it is easier to hodl.

I think it shows that the market is expecting an increase in the BTC/USD exchange rate.  Typically I would say this is a bad thing, but in this case I think people in positions of influence have been pretty open about large companies and funds' plans to make future purchases of BTC.  This will most assuredly cause a price increase, so what we're seeing with miners is that they want to be the ones who are selling to those large companies at much higher rates than today and are positioning themselves as such.

imagine bitcoin mining cost was $20k/btc all inclusive of hardware and other costs.
when the price in january when they want to take out full cost to buy next gen asics and pay that month electric. they would sell all the coin because the bitcoin price was too around the $22k mark

but they then only need to take out electric and labour and rent costs per month. which is say $12k cost.
and with bitcoin now at $55k+ they only need to take out a fifth of the coins to cover costs

after all
if the price of btc was say the same $22k january amount. they would need to take out 50% to cover their daily/monthly costs or 100% if they are going through an upgrade hardware/expansion phase

always expect most large pools to not spend all funds when prices are high
they 'profit' on a high. by not having to sell all their hoard to break even and pay bills

also note when mining farms do sell.. they dont do it on public exchanges. they have private deals on special OTC platforms.

so for miners its a price move which causes how much coin to not need to sell.
its not a how many coins sold causes a price to move

They see it going up in price so they not only want to pay their bills but also invest a bit by holding on to their coins. This is a very smart move if you take into account the fact that people are paying premium for fresh, unused coins. This means that their investment will grow in value even if the price doesn't! You can't go wrong here.
Should we expect a dump? It's possible if they get squeezed long enough. We are still in a bull market but if they see signs of a bear market (for instance a drop below 50% of the ATH) they will try to sell, but if they're smart they'll will sell to people who want these clean coins, and these people don't trade on exchanges, so chances of a miner dump are slim.

For those on the short term, they have to predict when is the prices going to dump but I think in the long term this is not significant because this is just a temporary dump and overtime the prices are going to recover and better yet will go up than what was expected.

It seems like they are taking advantage of this current bullrun. There's just too much pump going on right now that they might have considered to hold Bitcoin to achieve bigger profit. Of course there's going to be dumping anytime soon because they will eventually need to pay for the expenses of maintenance and mining cost.

To me, this is not a good sign. The more people holding their coins, the smaller liquidity of the market. Currently, I assume that there are only a few bitcoin on the market to be bought and sell from traders and big fishes. But when the time comes, bigger sharks and institutional investors can cause a big drop whenever they want which damage strongly the belief of crypto holders. As a result, a big sell-off will be triggered by decreasing the price of bitcoin rapidly.

Moreover, there are too many new miners coming to town. Many of them do not understand a shit of bitcoin and a small FUD easily give rise to panic

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Well, right now, everything can explode at any time. Therefore, IMO, do not try to find any indicator or sign that supports the uptrend. A huge correction is coming and many months are needed for a complete recovery. Do not be too confident in the market. Bitcoin does have the chance to surpass its latest peak and climb up to $75000, same as it can reduce 1/3 its price (back to $40000).

Why? It makes the price go up.


That's the point.


In other words, a moment ago you were worried about the shortage of supply that makes the price go up and now you are worried that in the hypothetical future they will start selling and the price will go down. I don't see that as very coherent. On the other hand, massive sell-offs are unlikely, as Bitcoin is proving to be the best store of value in the world. The only miner who has responded in the thread has said.

People also had the same conclusion in 2017. But the price still dropped as hard as it could. It is no doubt, to me and people on the forum, that bitcoin is the most reliable asset which both brings profit and against inflation in a long term. But in the short run, many people are currently in a big hype which they can not control their greed and bad behaviors toward bitcoin and cryptocurrency. This apparently lure many new investors who do not care about bitcoin, blockchain, or the technology behind it. All they ever want is money

What goes up, must come down. It is inevitable

I agree with this, I have been holding my mined coins for months and at a certain time when I reach my target I sell it all. It is because this way I can my ROI and at thr same time 30 to 40 percent in profits from mining. I have never read any blog about this, maybe most miners fel the same way, but some others sold it once they've reach payout.

Things don't work like this.
If people hold their coins whales can't get coins in order to dump without first raising the price to sky-high levels.
To dump coins you first have to have those coins and the ones that already have don't seem eager to dump them.
You're creating a fake problem in an impossible scenario.


No there are not, look at the growth in hashrate. And when labeling them as stupid newbies, what makes a knowledgeable person? Certainly, not the lines wrote above.


They can if the conditions are right which is happening now.
If operational costs are lower than your revenues you can hold for those coins indefinitely.
Besides gear is already paid up, unless you took a mortgage for it it's still capital, if you think in bitcoin terms you chose to buy a gear rather than directly BTC so what's the point of selling the profits and turn them into fiat?

Bitcoins became more precious more than ever. And with that the demand for it grew even greatwr as well. It is just logical that these guys won't sell immediately because thwy are well aware of what bitcoin can do, and as such will make sure that they have ample holdings before even selling one. This is both good and bad for bitcoin, because as scarcity increases, bitcoin's price will increase even more. But if bitcoin aren't circulated in the market, then we can't expect it to become globally adopted, and in the end to be a currency of the future.

I think this is a good sign for bitcoins. If miners are not selling there coins right now they are hoping for higher prices in the future. Selling at the moment for $50,000 - $60,000 doesn't seem to be enough for them. Which would also mean that if prices were to drop to let's say back down to $10,000 or $20,000, then I wouldn't expect the miners to sell their coins either. After reaching these high levels now, people expect the bitcoin price to rise more in the future. A massive dumb doesn't seem likely in my opinion.

It is generally positive. If miners are holding their mined bitcoin that means they are bullish about the market and that's why not rushing to convert their bitcoins to cash. So they are definitely expecting another rally in near future where they can get more money out of their mined bitcoin.

I believe Similar kind of positive vibes are all over the market now! So people are accumulating more bitcoin whenever they can at every price slide. There are definitely speculation ongoing for bitcoin to reach 75k by mid 2021.

I see this as a positive sign, while it is obvious that at some point they are going to have to sell some of those coins to pay for their operations the fact they are still holding most of their coins tell us they are expecting for the price to go up during the next weeks and months.

Also by not selling their coins they reduce the amount of coins available on OTC markets and this can only mean one thing, the price is bound to go up, after all this also coincides with the information we have that a lot of coins are being moved out of exchanges which means that long term holding is becoming more prevalent among those that have large quantities of bitcoin.

for me in my opinion i don't know if it's a good sign that the miners still keep holding their mined BTC. Especially despite of the current situation wherein some of investors are jumping out..because you know they're the only reason why there are some fluctuation in the market. So it's very suspicious. And in my view seems like they have another plans to do. Im hoping its positive because if it's not. expect more massive dumps of price soon or later.

As you can see in the chart. Miners are continuously selling there holdings since last year to take some profit. Its a good sign that they are holding because it will give scarcity again on the supply of BTC Circulating in the market which will drive the price up. This is simply the law of supply and demand to analyze what will be the effect of miners holding there token.

Well, maybe for now, because they have seen how the price moved to a new all time high, so I guess they are just holding and expecting more increase so that they can sell their bitcoins at a price that is worth more than what it was after being mined. I don’t know what may be the effect of their  action, but if I’m right this will lead to a decrease in the supply right? And when there is a decrease in supply the demand tends to surpass it and that means that the price will increase to match the level of demands.

Maybe this will lead to increase or maybe not, I can’t really predict where it will be heading to. And finally I don’t think miners can hold their coins for long, especially this time around that mining Bitcoin is really expensive than what it used to be. So, they are still going to sell them to cover their expenses.

It's a natural movement at the moment and I'm not worried if miners unload some ammos for sustuaning their businesses in the future. Don't forget that mining is a very complex business which involves a huge money and risk management to stay competitive as the hashrate grows so crazily.
I don't see this as a problem, really.

Very interesting stat.

I think that this, as well as the fact that exchange held balances are decreasing, paints a picture of a much more involved BTC investor community who is adopting the technology for the long haul as a store of value.

This poses completely different fundamentals to 2013, 2017, etc. when miners were simply in the game to make short term profits, and speculators stored funds on exchanges to take advantage of short term price fluctuations. Certainly a positive development.

Im a miner too and i really hold those i mine why? The main reason here is you already bought some of your miner with the minimum wage of gpu and now the bitcoin is really in to the highest level as you can see if you really did mine some of bitcoin last year or more than 2 years then you already had enough to trade or to buy another asset of miner since bitcoin price is in $50k right now and if you invested that into business is good as well like mine mostly this pandemic is you need to think more to gain profit than losing some of it.

I do not know how you can interpret this in a bad light, this is very similar to what we have been seeing with exchanges getting a huge outflow of coins from their system, this means those people that bought bitcoin are not willing to sell it anytime soon and are following the old maxim of “not your keys not your bitcoins”.

We are basically seeing the miners do the same, instead of sending their coins to exchanges to sell them they are keeping them because they are expecting for the price to go up during the next months, something that is incredibly likely if you watch the charts.

If they are doing so there must be a reason and I think the trust in the future of bitcoin is the actual reason behind miners having more faith in the coins and not selling them immediately. I think the person who mines something, if they start valuing the coins then really those are great signs and I agree a dump might happen but all the miners together cannot decide to sell one a single day.

I am actually glad to see the data and knowing that miners are holding more coins gives me even more confidence to hold my coins. Most of the time miners are really professional like they will just sell at the current market price and make sure they remain in profit after paying all the electricity bills and other costs. If they are realizing that the price is not ideal for selling then obviously there is a strong reason for an average holder to tighten his grasp as well.

Yes, but if they continuously sell it will still create a dump although regular and slower as compared to selling in chunks. I think miners have the right to sell when they want and no one should have a problem. Lesser mining dumps also mean that there is a scarcity of BTC which means higher the price. It is a really tricky situation, the longer they hold the better price we have for our coins as well but then at some point they will dump which is always the worry in the back of the mind.

Also, there are so many miners and not everyone is holding so there is always some supply being thrown into the market which keeps things stable and with more and more investors and traders coming into the market, ultimately it won't matter too much about the miners holding coins.

I have no clarity on this regard, how you got these information that miners are holding the coins and some are selling them. There were reports in the past about PayPal approaching miners and collecting the coins from them at a margin and there will be huge OTC sales happening with freshly minted coins.
 
It is pretty logical to assume that if these huge miners are not selling their coins it will create a disparity in the market but i do think that these miners will be booking their profit to break even from the huge investment they made and pay the bills rather than holding the coins indefinitely.

THIS IS BULLISH AF!

Imagine, what would miners gain from dumping Bitcoin's price at a time when everyone from Investment bankers to technologists like Musk are talking about it? They'd in fact be losing the most if they plan for such a short term dump.

So to speculate in the glass half-filled manner, What if the miners are being contacted directly by OTC desks representing huge companies that want to acquire major stake in single deals? They don't want the average Joe's DCAing but just an agreement based sale. The companies would also want to get their hands on virgin bitcoin and not the UTXOs that have gone through all the grinding and mixing and trickle down as small Satoshis in our hands. The miners would need to HODL for that right??

So that's a bull prediction to 100K right there..! 8)

We can simply find them on explorer. As bitcoin is trading stronger around $60k, I believe miners are making huge profits for the same (or with little enhancements) mining set up which are into business since last 6 to 12 months; which might lead to higher balances are resting on the mining addys compared to last years.

No miners could hold all the mining rewards indefinitely but definitely some portion of mining rewards if they add new machines according to total hash rate and most importantly they need to unplug some machines if bitcoin markets turns bearish and hash rates goes down.

Miners are people, like everyone else, so it's natural that they hodl now and are probably waiting from the elevation in price. Although, I am surprised by how many of them are going for it. How do they know that the price won't dump and they won't lose a lot of money? Where did that confidence come from?
I think it's more likely to be a bad sign, and we should probably keep track of their selling rates to be prepared for possible massive sellouts.

They're probably waiting for a more opportune moment to finally sell some or even all of their tokens, these are people too and just like us regular bitcoin investors are probably waiting for a certain price point to be hit before finally opening the gates, to be fair it's quite easier for them to recoup their losses even if their purchases significantly lowers bitcoin's value, since they can just mine it back. But for us investors, we're not going to have a field day with this.

Holding bitcoin to dump at the higher price could be the real reason why miners are holding but it is the actual reason why the price of bitcoin is stable now? I am not sure in the past we had similar situation or not but surely the dump will come when holders starts to dump their coins either who are miners or investors.

Miners have been holding Bitcoin ever since and when they have enough money to cover the mining factories' costs. The miner's stop to sell Bitcoin is the driving force for Bitcoin's price appreciation in the long term. I am sure whales and sharks will continue to have Bitcoin value manipulation to create panic sell times to collect more Bitcoin. Look at the recent market dump, which lasted only a few hours or days.

Yeah regardless of people who are mining or investing, must be waiting for big price levels to dump and then to buy back at cheaper price levels. This must be the basic reason why bitcoin is still remaining highly volatile. But the thing we need to notice here, when there is a trend among miners about holding rather than immediate dumping, then that will definitely contribute into stronger bull run. Regardless of how many miners are holding from the beginning, if there is a such trend then that will definitely get them big profits even at least in short-term.

I'm counting this topic like another big reason which will be trigger bitcoin into very big price levels by end of this year or before it will be getting into bear mode. Basically I'm looking for $100 before end of this year but now I guess I need to adjust it further ;).

When it comes to bitcoin mining then mostly mining farms are doing it so even if a particular mining farm decide to HODL it until certain time then it will affect the percentage for sure and they have their reasons for holding as well, Probably they also aimng for the 100K but it may not happen till the end of this year which is even possible in the next month but all I am thinking is we will see the bears before the end of 2021.

Exactly I do not really know how anyone could in any way or form think this is a bad thing, if the miners are still holding their coins then it must be for a reason it is obvious that they are expecting for the price to go up as there are many developments that indicate that is the direction the market is going to take during the next months, so why sell?

And as soon as you begin to think about this you realize there is not really a reason for them to sell so they can keep holding their coins, create a reduction in supply that is going to exchanges, drive the price up even more, then sell and obtain even more profits than they will otherwise, this seems like the perfect strategy for them and that is exactly what we're seeing.