Bitcoin Forum

Hey peeps,
I just recently kind of stumbled over a thing, I want to test in the long run.

I will start with the basics today and post a thing every other day. Every constructive cirtisim/info on how to maybe improve this technique, is highly welcome!

Lets get started then:

Most important
I need a trend. In ranges this thing will not work. Or give ... suboptimal results.

So, if there is an Uptrend, I basically wait for price to retrace. Once price forms a low, I will then draw an area around the bearish candle with the lowest low. What I have seen many times, is that the following then happens:

-Price leaves that area
-Price comes back into that area
-Price leaves again and continues its way

So far, all I can say that it works best on the H4 chart, but its worth to combine the H4 areas with some M30 areas, drawn the same way.

Have a visual reference here:

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/0/0viP1CpW.png

I hope the basic principle is clear, and maybe you guys have the final spice to add, so this can become the best community created trading strategy ever. From what I have seen in the past, this does not only work for BtcUsd (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSDT/) but also for most other things (even forex and some stocks, but stocks work differently so that is okay).

So... Hit me with your thoughts!

'trend' trading.. where you base your oppertunities based on median of 30 days prior trend.. its just a stupid game that pump n dumpers hope they can achieve if they can get enough followers to play into that game

its the followers that cause trends to repeat. by all gathering around one objective to buy into the trend
its not successful if not enough people are doing it

the other stupid thing is while followers are waiting for the 30th day to then trigger their moves. the organiser has already planned out the trend and acted accordingly before hand and has worked out their exit time.
FIFO(first in first out)

the followers come last as they cause the trend. and so they will be last to exit . meaning not all will gain
LILO(last in last out)

dont be fooled into these trend pump n dump games of everyone following a trend line

find some proper technical fundamentals. (TA=technical analysis.. not trend analysis)
the trend line game is for those who are foolish to be followers. not leaders
                                                                     to be the sheep of pump n dumps.
                                                                     to be last in last out
                                                                     to be the losers

I’ve got a trading system that works pretty good. I accumulate as much BTC as I can and then every 4 years I sell a bunch at the end of the year. December of 2013, 2017, and soon to be 2021 have all been or will be good to me. When you back up and look at a longer chart things get pretty simple.

I believe the old saying is, “Don’t run down and fuck one cow, walk down and fuck them all.”

I dont really understand the connection here. I totally agree that pump and dump groups are only helping the organizers. No doubt. But I am not planning on any of that, I just showed you something I realized happen over and over again and try to find a systematical approach to use that. If you aint got any good to say, just dont say nothing at all. Thanks.

Thank you, that makes sense. As i dont own many BTCUSD (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/), I want to try something I Realized when looking at the charts...

But yes, in the long run, BTC will definetely be worth much more than it is now.

As Warren Buffet said, when he was asked why not every one is trading the way he does: "Because nobody wants to become rich slowly".

There is no way this many people could get together and build something that would benefit every single one of them. You have to realize if one buys before the other that's going to change things and as long as that's true it will always be a problem for the people that buys later.

I understand that a system could mean that we could arrange something all together that would make it buy at the same level and sell at the same level but it would still change the market or not change at all depending on which coin we pick and that's not going to work. Long story short this will end up like all the pump and dump groups where the quick people will make money and slow people will end up losing money, that's not going to change at all. Obviously you could end up with not knowing what you are doing and not even manage to build a pump and dump type of group and just make everyone lose.

I think there is a misunderstanding here. Maybe I expressed something wrong as I am not a native speaker.

I do not want to come up with the next pump and dump scheme. My goal is to develop a trading Strategy. I think the word "System" triggers you into thinking its kind of a "Signal-Thing"

So basically, I have seen that Highs and Lows usually get tested, before price moves in the opposite direction. Thats how those areas are made.

So right now, I am looking for buys, if:
-There is an uptrend
-Price formed a higher low
-price leaves that place
-Price comes back into that area
-Price closes outside of that area again
--> ENTRY and max TP is previous high. Multiple partial TPs can be on the way, I use S&R Ranges for those.

So basically, with this post I was aiming to reach ppl who can:
-Benefit from this observation and maybe implement that in their trading
-Improve this very basic thought, together here

So not a pump group, not a "One says buy, everybody buys", only laying the foundation for a strategy here. Rules are simple, Trades can be reproduced, no rocketscience in this whole thing.

I thought, maybe someone comes in and says stuff like: "Maybe use an EMA to be crossed as additional confirmation", or "Look for divergencies" or whatever. Just take this basic construct and play around a little with it.

Just to clarify, with the word "System" I refer to a systematic approach to trade the markets / BTCUSD (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/). Not a System that would tell everybody to buy/sell at the same point. So I will from now on use the term Strategy instead.

See how it gave Entries in the 30 Min chart, in the last 7 days and maybe add your secret spice to filter out the bad signals, that every strategy has...

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/u/urUdZAao.png

So i did a journey into the basics of what I found on the charts, now lets get down to business!

in the current situation, BtcUsd (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/) had a nice bullrun in the H4 and is now forming Lower Highs. This is the result in the chart:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ci35UIVp/

Note:
At every TP, I take 20% of the current open position. At TP1 I go Breakeven with the stop. At TP3, the stop goes to TP1. At TP4, the stop goes to TP2 and so on.
Also: only because price is in that Bear territory, it does not mean, price has to drop now. It only means, IF it does drop -> THEN the chance is quite high, it will continue going down for a bit. How long? Who knows... I use multiple targets for that, as I cant see the future.

Now, for those, who want a more snipery way to enter a trade, you could simply go down to the M30 chart and do the same exact thing I just did in the H4. I recommend to go down into lower timeframes only after the H4 has confirmed a sell/buy, as price can still go up at this stage (any stage basically). Lets assume we would have a confirmation on the H4, the corresponding M30 could be looking like this then:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/X6JHZ5ZS/

The stop always goes above the Highest wick to make sure you dont get wicked out! that is the most annoying part in the H4 to be honest, as Stops are huge.

Hop you guys enjoyed this, and let me know what you think!

Lets look at this thing in the H4 now, one day later:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/IXSzXhDt/

And see the entry in the M30, what was a little more... speculative, as H4 had not yet closed at that time:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/2XQ1kgby/

Let us see what happened in the past few hours, I marked yesterdays Post in that chart, so its easy to spot:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/gtk0Ajnb/ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/gtk0Ajnb/)
TP2 was hit, and price retraced. Right now, It forms a new Bear area in the M30 and I am excited to see, if there might be the next entry, to maybe add another position.

You are an old adopter, so much experience so you know at end of the year must sell a bunch for every 4 years, I join crypto in 2017 and I don't have an experience like you, but after 2017 I will also do the same, I will sell my asset maybe all in, because based on data Bitcoin and altcoin will be dumped massively

It even makes sense, that it all gets dumped! Do you see similarities between 2017 and now? BitCoin is hyped in the media, BtcUsd (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/) is even shown in the banner in newschannels on TV (like Fox News and them). So if everyone wants some BTC, the whales will at one point sell it to them. All at once. flooding the markets (again). Suddendly there is way more Supply then Demand, and therefore the price will drop. If if starts dropping, all the ppl who are buying now, will be the first to try to get out. So they are selling their BTC as well. this might continue to become a sell off rally and suddenly, BTC lost around 80% of its value again...

Lets Talk about the Trades:
the H4 one got stopped out, at BE after hitting TP 2. so a good part of the trade has been secured:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/B0fmO5xZ/

Also, a new possible Bear Territory is forming in the H4 Chart atm:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/uLkWc4Jj/

and if you look a bit around, you will find a M30 Bear Territory. This is a bit more risky to trade, as the H4 has not yet confirmed its new Bear Territory:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/XfSOPwRw/
Still worth a try, imho.

If anyone has an additional way, on how to select if you would trade/not trade an M30 Area that is not yet confirmed by the corresponding H4, please let me know. That is what this thread is about. Learn and improve together!

Your prediction is still good but a sudden candle just makes the price of bitcoin surpasses $61000. However, the current buy force is still low. With no significant news or pump from the whales, btc price is stagnant which is a sign of reversal.

https://i.imgur.com/zrjgU6q.png

This is just my analysis. Things could be wrong. After all, we are at the beginning of Q2 which I believe big firms and whales tend to take profit A bear market can happen for about 2-3 weeks, and then we will return to the bull. The current momentum of bitcoin is still uptrend with a crucial buying force

Well... we only know for sure, once it happened. So basically, the M30 Trade was an BE/SL depending on how you managed it. I hate to see winning trades going back to DD so I close them many times, before they can hit DD. Lets count it as a loss, though, only to stay transparent.

Regarding the Trade in the M30, as mentioned earlier, this was the risky version, as the H4 did not give a valid entry. And hindsight, the H4 Bear territory was clearly broken by the bulls, and therefore in the H4 was no sell entry.

Lets take a look at the stucture in the H4 now:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/0LHGDlAU/

The bearish territories ware clearly broken, so sells are off the table for now.

the bullish plan comes into play now, but this causes the problem of the "where is the Target" as we are about to break the ATH of BtcUsd (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/)... Lets see where the journey goes:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/DJWD47GU/

I dont want to be a "Look at me, I told you so" kind of guy, but I m really happy about what happened in BtcUsd (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/) lately :D

H4
https://www.tradingview.com/x/mbFeqPFM/
Link to the image  (https://www.tradingview.com/x/mbFeqPFM/)
And in the 30:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/aI2dNM7P/
link to image (https://www.tradingview.com/x/aI2dNM7P/)

All these pictures are hindsight, obviously. As I am still testing this whole thing, this is the only thing that makes sense. I try to be transparent as much as possible. The m30 would have been very risky, I think, and realisticly the stops should have been below that H4 Range, what still left us with around 1:1 for the moment.

So lets see what BtcUsd (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/) has done in the meantime and what might happen in the future:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/bBbqRVLk/

Here is the link to the pic, as somehow this pic cant be displayed...? https://www.tradingview.com/x/bBbqRVLk/ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/bBbqRVLk/)

So, as long as it does not leave, come back and leave that H4 Bull Area again, With this kind of system, there is nothing to do right now. Lets see how this looks tomorrow then

Lets recap:
In the last post for BTCUSD (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/), my PA approach said: M30 could be buys, but are not confirmed by H4. The M30 Buys could have ended as BE, whereas the H4 never confirmed that Bull Area, and therefore buys in the H4 were off the table  when H4 closed below the Bull Area.

See Chart:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/eVr5QAZn/ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/eVr5QAZn/)

So the next H4 areas come into play. As the bullish momentum seems to be broken (Bull area could not last), its either a range, or price is bearish. If I put in the bearish areas now, there could be continuation of sells:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ik21VbUY/ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/ik21VbUY/)

Unfortunately now preview is availible atm for pics, somehow.

One thing that is visible here, is:
if a move starts a little ugly, it continues this way... So: the H4 started to be not clean with entering and leaving the sell Areas, and it continued like this all the way until now, in BtcUsd (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/):

Somehow pics dont work here anymore :(

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZdnEbhP1/ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZdnEbhP1/)

So for now, everything is still bearish from a H4 point of view.

Alright, welcome back!
Lets see what happened in BtcUsd (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/) in the last couple hours... Basically... nothing :D price did move, that is correct, but mostly to the right.

So the H4 area is still bearish and is still valid. its a little lame in the H4 atm, but without confirmations in the H4, its very risky to trade the M30:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/HokMeFSS/ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/HokMeFSS/)

Alright! We had a trade in BTCUSD (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/), and now there is not much to do, then wait for a new Lower High to create our next Bear-Area. Have the trade as recap here:

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/a/awLM9UFP.png

https://www.tradingview.com/x/awLM9UFP/ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/awLM9UFP/)

Next Chapter ;-)

Maybe we get some longs soon, for btcusd (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/), but ist a little early to say.

Everything should be visible in the screenshot here:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/1OTw7AW7/ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/1OTw7AW7/)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/1OTw7AW7/

Hey I have a very curious question here. I have gone through a few posts of yours the thing we are talking about is correctly represented by Elliot wave theory. What you are trying to do here is finding wave 3 which is the trend continuation wave after the pullback on wave 2. I can give you an addition here. Use Fibonacci here. Put the Fibonacci starting on the top of your H4 bear territory until the maximum low of that wave. the Pullback would be around the range of 0.5 to 0.638 on Fibonacci. You can set your entry within this area. This is pretty useful to find the end of the pullback.

Please correct me if I am wrong somewhere here because I have been doing this from a long time and it works in a decent manner.

Thats shows the market can be unpredictable at some point which make hard for anyone to develop a 100% price trading action for the Bitcoin market, looking at the market momentum the next trend is still not certain and the best thing to do now is to wait till the possible mext trend surface itself.

Lets get on with this!
As expected, price left that H4 Bull area, came back into it, and then left it again. That was the trigger for a long trade. Unfortunately, it got stopped out in the H4

https://www.tradingview.com/x/6XkOkJKA/ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/6XkOkJKA/)

Lets see the M30 then:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/iLY8OSXU/ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/iLY8OSXU/)

Thank you for your opinion! You are right, markets are not 100% predictable, no matter what you use. There will always be fail trades. As long as you do have a systematic approach, with clear rules when to enter, when not, and also when and how to exit, you are fine. As long as this systematic approach is profitable, ofc :D I dont say that what I am blogging here is perfect, ist only a view of the markets. One of a million. But it has clear rules, and And I am looking to develop it into a winning strategy. Thats all. Clear trends are the easiest to trade, but we dont always have them.

Hi and thanks for your opinion! I am not sure what you mean, to be honest. I read quite some books on EWT and also used to apply it on the charts. It turned out, finding the 3 was not best way, honestly, i used to look for a complete 5, then wait and trade the C of the correction. BUT: EW is only clear, when the move has been done. Until then, basically you are guessing if its an ABC correction, or an XYZ or a flat or running or whatever it might be. I am not saying it does not work. I am saying I could never make good use of it. And believe me, I tried. Hours and hours. Its simply not mine.
You can go down a snowy mountain multiple ways
1 Skiing
2 Snowboarding
3 Sledging
4 Walking
5 Sliding on your butt

There is no "Wrong" way. Only one that you prefer. EWT was never really mine, allthough I could see the patterns form and it made sense many times.

Entering on the 618 fib, only because its there, is not really a strategy for me. Where will you put the SL? Will you enter while price moves against you, or wait for a confirmation? how do you identify the trend in the first place? I am happy to hear the answers, as this might be implemented in this strategy, so I am really excited!

This is the reason why a good enter/exit point with the inclusion of stop loss is very vital in crypto trading but these are the major tips some crypto traders ignore.

I know you don't say prediction/view about the market is perfect but still, I don't think it possible to easily market clear trend, this only happens once in a while and if it happens only a few people usually get the information.

Okay lets see where we are:
https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/R3GJMT_TSLA_Q1_2021_Update_5KJWZA.pdf?xseo=&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%22TSLA-Q1-2021-Update.pdf%22

And as link:
https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/R3GJMT_TSLA_Q1_2021_Update_5KJWZA.pdf?xseo=&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%22TSLA-Q1-2021-Update.pdf%22 (https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/R3GJMT_TSLA_Q1_2021_Update_5KJWZA.pdf?xseo=&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%22TSLA-Q1-2021-Update.pdf%22)

So my overall bias is long now. Lets see if I get a close now inside my buy area, and if price leaves again after that. Then I will open a buy (demo account!). In case I am not able to post it here, now you know the plan ;-)

Do you know that saying: A trade that goes wrong, quickly turns into an "investment"  ? :D Nowadays its simply called HODL if you trade without an SL or TP. But as a Trader, I believe one needs these things. As an hodler, its a different story.

And yes: Clear trends are not always there, one more point why you need an systematic apporoach that wins more often than it loses, especially in btcusd (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/) trading

Next update for BTCUSD (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/)
Price has not really moved anywhere... I am still waiting for it to enter and leave my bull areas, to then take a demo buy.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/nL87PoXB/ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/nL87PoXB/)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/nL87PoXB/

Okay, so price has tested that first of those 3 Bull areas, but I did not dare to even take a paper trade. So until I get some more experience with double and tripple areas, I will not touch them! Lets see how this thing continues. Here is the 30 Min Chart:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/xlNOQ3aW/ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/xlNOQ3aW/)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/xlNOQ3aW/

and then there is the H4 chart, I cleaned it up a bit, so we can see more of whats going on there:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/JQ3ziZc0/ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/JQ3ziZc0/)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/JQ3ziZc0/

So BtcUsd (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/) worked a little around this area, but in the end it managed to continue bullish!

from the three M30 Areas, the first one gave an entry, but this would have been a BE trade for me.
The second area worked great and even if the first one was a loss trade (worst case), the second one eliminated the loss from the first one.
The third area was only tested, and gave no good entry.

Conclusion: If there is a cluster of areas, wait for clear signals, best seems to wait until all are at least touched/tested:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/7kfWQChg/ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/7kfWQChg/)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/7kfWQChg/

Lets take a look at that H4 area, wich was a little sketchy as it was a consolidation low:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/SldSp8nq/ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/SldSp8nq/)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/SldSp8nq/

Old players are certainly more familiar with crypto trading every year and know how bitcoin moves every hour. but if you still get stuck with the same error, it's the same as a novice player. I see every year the value gets higher and is the king of coins on every exchange.

I rally think Trading and Holding are different things. Not that it would be bad to sell a bunch all 4 years, if it works for you, great! But if you want to pay your monthly expenses, you're gonna have a though time, getting paid only once in 4 years. Me personally, I am doing all this, to escape my job, and dont spend all day at the charts. I want to see some good opportunites, take them, make some profits and then move on and wait for the next good option. I cant tell my family, there will be no food for the next 4 years, as daddy needs to hodl some more...

Lets get to TA here, now:
Price has created a Bull area, left it, closed back inside it and is about to close in 80 minutes. IF BtcUsd (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/) closes outside (to the top) again, this could be a potential entry and then I believe, its very possible that price will test the current ATH again. I have put things in the chart, to summarize it. Please not the marked up buy trade is not active, and will only become valid, IF the current H4 candle closes outside that bull area!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5gEPf3yC/ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/5gEPf3yC/)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5gEPf3yC/

This is the system that work because it’s based on long term trending.
I’m doing this method, this year too. Hop out when the FOMO and increases are too insane to sustain.
Then after 300 days jump in on the low again....

So what happened then at BTCUSD (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/)?
-> Price created an Bull Area -> Bulls could not succeed -> Bull area failed -> As there was no entry, this is actually a good sign for ma, as this means, fail entries are sometimes prevented. See the pic for more details:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/bZIbn779/ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/bZIbn779/)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/bZIbn779/
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/b/bZIbn779.png

HEy! Finally another trade!

Check this BtcUsd (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/) Trade out, and lets see how it goes:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/JLGPKfau/ (https://www.tradingview.com/x/JLGPKfau/)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/JLGPKfau/
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/j/JLGPKfau.png

I honestly do not believe that bunch of strangers online could get together and agree on something. The main feeling of internet is that many people get together and even if we get together as 100 people, there will be at least one that will go against what everyone else says even if only to get more attention and few of those 99 people will try to persuade why they are right and that one person is wrong but 90+ of those people will just ignore and that is when the troll will get a lot more dangerous and start talking about how he is right.

This is why we should not try to get together and build something, instead anyone who wants to should go ahead and build something and share it with the world and ask what is wrong with it, if there is anything wrong with it then they will just fix that which would be a better way to do it if you ask me.

Thank you for the information, I see that the H4 chart that you published is very helpful in combining the H4 area with several M30 areas together.
I hope this will be the same basic concept in creating a trading strategy that is significantly robust.
is there a secret published by the communites in building trade principles?

Thank you for your view! I get your point and believe me, I know what you are saying about trolls and working together with strangers in the internet is... not always the best possible idea. Still I think whoever wants to to add something, can add it. Who wants to take this basic thing and implement it, in what he/she/it is doing, can do so. If someone has some constructive critics for me, I will take it. If its only destructive rubbish, well then... so be it. Me personally I take this this as an opportunity, to maybe find a cool thing that works, and take it to another level. This way, at the end of this thread theres either a clear statement that this experiment failed terribly, or that it worked out great and therefore who ever reads through it, can then learn it step by step.

Long story short: I believe there are good and cool ppl out there, willing to share helpful views. If now -> so be it. I will still walk this way, either to success or to failure.

Thank you for your question!

Yes it makes sense, to apply the H4 pricniple to the M30 but only after the H4 has an valid entry! Its like in chess, where you need a strong figure covering a weaker one. So the H4 would be a rook, or the queen, where as the m30 is a Bishop or Knight and the M5 is a only a Pawn. So make sure your Bishops/Knights are covered by the queen or a rook (meaning: wait for the H4 to give an entry, and then wait for the M30 give an entry. This way you can use the H4 Target, and the M30 stop, what changes the RR significally!)

I am not sure I understand your question:
is there a secret published by the communites in building trade principles? could you rephrase that?

Hi friends, how are you doing?
check this post, [urlhttps://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5327294.msg56938861#msg56938861]#41[/url] to see the original setup, and the trade when it "developed" and then see what happened:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/rvisDYnb/
same image, only working:
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/r/rvisDYnb.png

So in this case, price went to our favour. I will now (afterwards) go down to M30 and look if I can find a better entry, so next time I might take the entry in the lower timeframe.

Lets see what could have happened in the M30... Remember, the approach is always the same, as posted in the original post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5327294.msg56675759#msg56675759)!

I did a visualisation on the chart. In case there are any questions, feel free to ask them!

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/n/NhCTWfEf.png

Coming up next:
Another Trade!

Lets see if btcusd (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/) closes inside the H4 bulls territory, and then leaves it again to close outside. In this case, I will try another long trade and then look in the M30 for more options, just as in the example above.

Here is the current situation:
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/y/YENfsfXR.png

Not much to say today, BtcUsd (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/) has not yet reacted the way I need it, to get an entry.

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/c/cah9exba.png

That's actually what always happen before i draw a order.. Wherein i dont really need a sort of fluctuations that showing a support line and you need to mark the target as soon as possible while its still at the support level.. Nope that kind of technique above is the most useful in my opinion (from OP) . And in fact i'm not actually basing on the tools or indicators, because sometimes i always use that strategy above because of some thoughts, such what if its goes more something like that bla bla bla. . So on that way you can't make any doubts  at all because if it reach your target then it's good because it will increase after as its at the support level and while its still inside of the bolinger, and indeed you can make profits afterwards, If not then it still good because you are in a safe place wherein no worries and you still have plenty of time to mark the next target again.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts! I try to not use any indicators at all. Nothing wrong with indicators, just not my cup of tea. Indicators basically highlight information that is on the screen already, so who wants to use them, its okay.

What I like about that setup is: You have some specifics to happen, before even considering an entry. And mostly its enough to look at a chart every 4 hours. that is the most relaxed way of trading, imho. No stress involved.

BtcUsd (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/) could not manage to turn inside that H4 bull area, instead it smashed that level. So now I expect 1 of 2 things to happen:
1 Price makes a Lower High, creating a new Bear Territory
2 Price rallies up to the most current and untested Bear Territory, and gives a short entry there

Lets see what we get. Option 3 is of course, price breaks the Bear territory and goes long, without giving an entry.

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/t/TKceeQVk.png

BTCUSD (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/) Price no did something really unpleasent and formed a Bear area on top of a bull area. As it broke the prev bull area, my bias is bearish, but right now, with 2 areas on each other like this... I am staying away from it, in order to protect my capital.

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/v/VrE98yw3.png

So, lets see what BTCUSD (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/) did over the weekend :D It seems that this Trend-Based strategy really gives good entries, at least at times. That is the main issue for me: The number of entries. Few entries only but most of them are good. And if there is a confirmation in the H4, its worth to wait for the M30 trade, for a higher probability. Best is, to be in both, the H4 and the M30 trade(s), to make the most of it.

The bull area from the H4 did not succeed, as price is in a downtrend, it makes more sense to look for sells anyways. This is what happened, and this tought me a lesson. As long as Bear Territorys are respected, the trend is down, and therefore the bull Territorys are only there to be observed, not to be traded (Trade what yo see, not what you think).

H4: https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/t/Tn1Zon49.png

And then the options the market gave in the M30, only looking at sell options:
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/u/UIv70czY.png

this time, there wer only 2 trades, 1 win 1 loss, in total +1 R what is... okay... not good for the amount that BtcUsd moved, but it were safe options. then there was that H4 Trade, with 2,29 RR what was good, so in total around 3.3 RR for 3 trades. Could have been worse, tbh. Could have been better as well...

Theres no absolute rules, they already have computers tracking and trying these methods constantly anyway as it requires alot of time and effort watching invested to pay off.   I would first suggest people go use Tone Vays chart software which gives a clear red or green arrow at turning point, that does cost 1000 to gain entry though.

So you are saying "Buy an indicator and get rich"? Or did I miss something? Well... What is "requiring a lot of effort and watching" for you, is "relaxed trading, using alerts" for me. Its always a matter of perspective. I will check out that charting software though. There is always something, one can learn. And not even looking at something, would be very ignorant, so I will check it out

So, coming from yesterday, we are still in a downtrend, until that H4 Bear Territory is broken. That means, in the M30 I am looking for sells only. There was one trade yesterday, and anotherone right now. lets see what BtcUsd is up to...

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/3/34WEUgmA.png

another 2 RR added from this trade:
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/r/rYccl7gU.png
Lets sum it up again:
we have +4,3 R so far from that last H4 bear territory. Not to bad, I guess. Not the best, but 4R can be a lot, depending on your Risk appetite. Maybe I will start a more detailed list or anything, to keep the record more clean.

Me personally, I like that way of "slow" trading. As long as it is constantly profitable, it can grow healthy. and that is what it is all about.

I gotta say, the more I observe this whole thing, the more I fall in love with it on BtcUsd (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/)! There are times, where there are barely trades. and then there is the last couple days. We can add some more to yesterdays 4,3 RR ;-) There was another sell win, with a 1.58 RR and another 1RR is running atm, so we have banked 5,88RR in theory, and will end with either 6,88 RR or 4,88 RR. Both are good results, imho.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/2/2bpqSHZz.png

I gotta say... If I would have been in that btcusd (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/) Trade, and if I would have left a runner... :D So many if's there...

Anyway, lets keep looking at facts: with whatever it is I am doing there, the past few days were very good trades! I did not take any of them, as I am still checking the performance. Unitl now, I love it! I would have another Sell Entry just a few hours ago, find it in the pic below:

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/v/voghlDrw.png

I gotta Add, the SL should be above 41154 I did that wrong on that Screenshot.

Jus for the record, I am at a win of 6.88 RR atm, in theory.

Happy Pips then!

Okay boys and girls, I was a little less active, due to private circumstances. Lets see the latest developments in BtcUsd (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/) here :D From the basics, I am still bearish, as there was no H4 bear area broken, what means, I should be looking for sells only, atm. Also, last night there was an entry triggered, in the H4 chart, looking like this:
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/p/PRBC5weG.png
(her's a link in case the pic does not work: https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/p/PRBC5weG.png (https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/p/PRBC5weG.png))

And as the H4 was triggered, I am also looking for more sells in the M30 now:
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/p/pdzPfEHf.png
and as link https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/p/pdzPfEHf.png (https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/p/pdzPfEHf.png)

Wow, BtcUsd (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/) does something unexpected, and rises for now :( Well... we all knew this will be the case at some point :D The H4 Trade I posted yesderday, would be half way to its SL, the M30 would have hit that SL already.
Or, speaking in pictures:
H4:
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/b/Br0YTEjS.png
(does anyone else see that inverted HS?)

And M30:
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/l/LXvz7bA6.png

So, the RRs have changed to: 5.88 in the moment. that is all theoretically speaking! Please dont  trade that, by now. There is not enough data to be sure this kind of thing works!

Seems not many people follow your post. I think you may try publishing your trading activities/Open positions on top of your TA to gain more audience.

Thank you for your hint! I prefer to keep it structured though, so everyone who is interested can clearly see what I do, and where it comes from. I might put the RRs in the first blog, that is a good idea. But this thread is not about the RR, more about the approach. The journey, if you want.

The BtcUsd (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/) M30 could have given another entry, but as I did not mention it earlier, I am not taking it into account here. I prefer to present what I have done, not what I could have done, if this or that... There are others out there, providing this kind of "service".

The H4 trade would still be active, and not been in the SL by now. Also the H4 Bear Territory is still alive, so nothing changes at the moment.
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/c/cimRQ1JS.png


As the H4 level has still not been broken, my bias is still short. What results in a possible short trade, IF the current M30 level will not be broken, but instead price closes below:
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/s/SWy1DAqK.png
One could even aim for the H4 target, but that is a different kind of thing.

BOOM what a weekend?! BTC $$$
But... lets go back a few steps!

The Setup I posted, for M30 did not trigger, and was destroyed. However, I marked up the next Sell area, right above that one, and there was a trade triggered there. There were more options, one SL and one would be running, or should have been closed at BE, to be honest.

https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/s/Sx228anD.png

So there was one trade with +2,75 another one with -1 and then another one, me personally would have closed at BE after being in profit and nearly hit TP. Sums up to +1,75 RR over the weekend with 3 trades. lets add the 5.88 RR from before and we have some nice 7,63 RR and one H4 trade would still be running

See the current running BtcUsd (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/) H4 trade here:
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/q/qje22YFl.png

The current trade in BtcUsd (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/) is still running, the H4 Bear territory has not been broken, so in the M30 I am looking for sells only. And only if they are according to the rules.

Lets look at the M30:
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/e/eRiOXan8.png

I am patiently waiting if I get an entry here

Wow... Not much  to say here, other than: Impressive! Added another 1,42 R to the upside with a trade that was planned and even posted here  prior to triggering:
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/6/6ZvZbbCJ.png

BTCUSD (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/) I heart U!

BTCBTCBTC Update: Current theoretical RR is 7,63+1.42= 9,5 R BTCBTCBTC

now, there was one H4 area that triggered a trade, and was broken after that trade. in theory I should be aiming for longs from here, but am having a though time doing so, as the prev LH has never been broken. So for now, I am at the sideline and only observing and trying to find a way, how to deal with a situation like the current one

So for now... Buys and sells would bkind of make sense, but I dont like this situation. Gotta come up with an rule for this... Thank you BtcUsd (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/), for teaching me a lesson!

Wow, I did not think that this BtcUsd (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/) trade could make it, but its very close!
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/x/XByaYQSH.png

So, if this Bull Area will break, I will see it as confirmation that the Bears are still in control, and basically wait for the next bear area to then look for further sells. Until then, more sideline for me.

Its been a day or two now :D BUT: TP hit from that BtcUsd (https://de.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/) sell. And the Bull Area at the bottom did also work! I am rally amazed and happy. I did not trade any of things mentioned above. So far this is only a documentation and I thought maybe someone else will join it. Well... I think I will pause the updates for a couple days, and think of a way, on how to put this all together into a complete trading strategy. In case anyone wants go get involved, fell free to answer here