Bitcoin Forum

Hi guys,

do you have any thoughts about the topic?

I found it an Indicator in the last two Bullruns, that when Altcoins pump really heavy like right now, it can mean the Bullcylce might end soon.
What do you guys think, do you have Indicators for the end of BTC Bullcycle

Thank you guys.

Kind regards.
Hector

I don't see it as it is. There are a lot more times when bitcoin and altcoins are in the same page than they aren't. Usually, whenever bitcoin goes up, altcoins go up as well, as has been the case mostly for the last few years. Also, there seems to be no significant movement in the market for bitcoin signaling a drop in the price as of late, so I guess this is the altcoin market moving on its own and not correlated to any other market. Altcoins are still a pretty convoluted market for me, but I guess the past charts of the previous years speak for themselves when I say that bitcoin - altcoin are mostly on the same page.

Hey thanks for the answer - appreciate it!

Each bitcoin bullrun is different since the market has changed. The main driver in 2017 were mostly retail traders and it's evident that this cycle is run by institutional investors.

Altcoins have pumped a few times already but many speculate that we are still in the middle. I also read predictions that it will peak between September-October.

It is up to you if you want to start with your exit strategy.

I think the one that will peak on September -October is the BTC bull trend.  Major Altcoin bull run may possibly happen early next year, in reference to the market trend way back late 2017 to late 2018.  There are a couple of altcoins that have been pumping recently and I so happen to witness the current growth of XRP from $0.56 to $1.1 in just a day.  As we can see, there are only a few altcoins that started to increase in price, this might still be a part of pre-bull run of the altcoin market.

While it's impossible to definitively say the bitcoin bull cycle is over just yet, there are a few reasons why I can think of for the insane price growth we have seen this week.

Firstly, there are plenty of altcoins surging in price with Ethereum and Binance Coint leading the charge. Bitcoin may be approaching a bit of a turning point and its dominance has been eroding lately and this has paved the way for these new cryptos to gain significant mindshare.

If they keep moving up in price I think they will keep finding new and substantial support, and become attractive for speculation.

The noobies that support Bitcoin even if it's price is 0 will tell you that not, but YES, Bitcoin bull cycle is ending, preparare for next 3-4 years.

Altcoin season is still going on greatly. BNB reached a new ATH with 400 dollars today. Ethereum hasn't reached another ATH yet but the price is around 2130 dollars now. And many other altcoins are having an awesome period. While the situation is like that, Bitcoin price is not going up right now. I also started wondering if the bull run for Bitcoin is over or not.

The thing is, most alts have already 20x and many even 50x - 100x in the last 6-8 months, BTC has has also had some insane growth.
I got suspicions as most of the youtube "experts" are calling end of the bull cycle by the end of the year.

I think the market will end when nobody will expect it - especially as many people didnt get out the last bullrun in profits.
Also the NUPL on Glassnode is always so close to euphoria which usually signals the end of the bull run. There are many more indicators pointing towards the end in my opinion but we will see :)

What alts are pumping like crazy? The strongest ones like ETH or ADA are doing pretty much what Bitcoin does.

Bitcoin is very close to its ATH and those two altcoins are also close or at their ATH levels from a few weeks back. I wouldn't look at altcoins with very low market caps as those tend to pump on their own even when the whole market turns bearish.

Bitcoin bull cycle will end with a bang. You're going to see an ATH with a strong 40% correction at the very least. It's not going to keep holding at 95% ath for weeks to suddenly crash 40% unless there's some really bad news that can make big companies dump everything at a loss.

Altcoins are having a great period nowadays really. Especially altcoins like ETH, BNB, XRP, DOT are doing awesome lately. Their investors should be very content with the situation right now. But when the BTC price start going to the moon again, I wonder how many altcoins will maintain their performance then.

in my opinion the last half year was unbelievable...people are start to fantasize...

According to Altcoin Season Index (https://www.blockchaincenter.net/altcoin-season-index/), it does seem like altcoin season indeed started. By their definitopn, altcoin season started if  "75% of the Top 50 coins performed better than Bitcoin over the last season (90 days) it is Altcoin Season." It looks like that we are at the top of altcoin season, and that we might experience altcoin correction soon.


Here are few graphics from the website that might explain in better

https://i.postimg.cc/RCfDPGkJ/altcoin-season.png

https://i.postimg.cc/3JFbhNJK/altcoin-season-2.png

https://i.postimg.cc/h4yf5bVg/altcoin3.png



@OP To answer your question whether BTC Bullcycle is ending, I really don't think so. This is just a temporary situation while btc is going sideways, but soon enough we can expect BTC continuing its way towards 70k.

There's no definite or assurance for bitcoin bull cycle that's going to end for now, it's only a scenario which we see selective altcoins to start pumping. We can only see bitcoin fluctuates, but not declining badly because price hasn't shown fast decrease. Right now altcoins started to climb and not a significant reason for btc to crash.

Nah, I don't see Bitcoin's bull run ending. This is just the flow, you can't win all the time, sooner or later alts are going to be pump by some individuals, pump and dump group, whale investors. You need need to panic, the price of Bitcoin is still above $50k and it will continue, we are in sort of accumulation phase again.

Let the altcoin market pump, we love to see that because sooner or later it will be burst and that will benefit Bitcoin market in the long run as they could be a shift.

You also have to check what fueled the bull run in 2017 and it's subsequent burst. Bitcoin went to 43% if I'm not mistaken during it's bull run in 2017 as well. And currently we have institution that is heavily invested on bitcoin. So it means that they are not going to sell for alts, maybe it was just retail investors who are selling and then buying alts.

As I have explain above, we are in a different bull run cycle, not the same as the previous ones.

Isn't it the norm? BTC pumps, altcoin joins. Most alts get pumped artificially anw so since it's being done right now, might be the best chance to profit from widening your portfolio a bit more in the short term. The altcoin pumps may seem more significant than what Bitcoin is experiencing right now, but I'm not really surprised, especially if you compare the state of when they started right now. Altcoins are the best options to win (and lose) money in the short term since they give out significant gains, while Bitcoin is the long-term investment.

If it were up to me I would change the op title.

To my title.

Btw.

btc was 20k and eth was 1.2 k and bch was 2.2k. when we tanked in 2017.

based on those numbers eth need to be 3.6k and bch needs to get to 6.6k

which if history does repeat will be July or later.

More likely it tanks in feb or march

It's just that bitcoin dominance is lower than before reason for many altcoins to pump right now. Bitcoin bull cycle won't end soon, we are not even near the speculation of $100k this year and I'm really expecting that to happen because of many big institutions now adopting blockchain technology. We should just enjoy alt season for now because this is the time we can accumulate more bitcoin. Once bitcoin overcome its previous ATH then a new one could likely happen soon.

I am not sure about that because nobody will know when the bull cycle will end and if you say like that, I guess that is just a prediction and I hope that the bull cycle will not end this year. The altcoin season does not end yet and I guess we will see another bull run for the altcoin, which will be the next altcoin season. So that will be the best moment for us to gain benefits and selling the altcoin at the highest price. It proves by now as many altcoins start to increase and hit the highest price.

Historically altcoins only get pumped in 2 scenarios:
1. When bitcoin price is stable
2. When a pumping team picks up that shitcoin to pump at random (regardless of what bitcoin is doing)

Case 1 can happen to a larger number of altcoins while case 2 only happens to a handful of altcoins and those coins are usually the smaller altcoins that are easier to pump and can pump a lot more than the bigger altcoins.

The altcoins also dump in 3 scenarios:
1. When bitcoin price is rising
2. When bitcoin price is falling
3. When the pumping team (in case 2 above) starts dumping the coin they pumped (regardless of what bitcoin is doing)

Right now bitcoin price is stable which means the day traders are moving to the shitcoin market to increase the amount of money they have so that they can come back to bitcoin market when it started to move. It is not an indication of bitcoin's trend (whether bull or bear) just indicates that price is stable.

Considering the large accumulation that has been going on with high daily volumes and the fact that the bull market was recently started gaining momentum and also the fact that we are at the middle of the historical cycles the only trend that we can have right now is bullish.

If based on my analysis Bitcoin and altcoins will not end bull cycle any time soon. I think the bullish trend will last for the next 2-3 months,
after that there is probably a deep correction. But I am still not too sure about the analysis that I have done, maybe to make it more convincing
I will wait until this April ends. If it turns out that at the end of April the price of Bitcoin and altcoins will continue to rise,  I am positive that
the bullrun will continue for at least the next 3 months. So now it's better to just HODL Bitcoin and altcoins that we have.

well, there's still panic in the stock market and USD printing by trillions, there are plenty more reasons why the traders from this market will come running to crypto market. besides, there is no indication yet that BTC will drop below its range for several weeks already. if it ain't happening yet then it could go swinging to a new ATH.

technical analysis shows differently because you can see already that it had bubbled too much. it's sure to drop one day, when it will happen is going to be a guessing game.

They’re pumping, but what coin do they do this for, and truly want to HODL after the pump? 8)


It can also mean Bitcoin is consolidating. Ending the current bull market cycle of Bitcoin would end the bull cycle of the whole altcoin market.


Zoom out. Bitcoin is in a never-ending-super-bull-cycle.

Bull market ends after a big upward movement, like 10-30% in one day or even faster. This happened in the previous cycles, which doesn't guarantee that it will happen again, but it's a very likely scenario.

Altcoins are never a good indicator for Bitcoin, they are dependent on it, not the vice versa. Even thing like Bitcoin dominance doesn't matter much. At lowest point it was at ~35%, but Bitcoin was always the leader of this market.

Be honest, do you plan to HODL those altcoins forever, or are you merely trading them for profit denominated in Bitcoin? It’s very hard to believe the majority of people in the coin community will be HODLing altcoins during market retracements. I believe a strategy of holding some stablecoins, and taking some short selling positions to reduce value-loss for your Bitcoin would be wiser.

I guess to each his own, I agree that some altcoins are having a good pump and bitcoin's dominance has been affected. But if you are really that experience, you know that this kind of altcoin pumps are not going to stay even for a month or two specially that bitcoin is in the middle of a bull cycle.

So we are still in the middle of things, not yet the bubble that we are expecting, we are still far from 6 digits because that is a good indication that we might be seeing the top, $100k-$200k might be the all high for this bull run, and we barely half of it.

Since this is the case that bitcoin will always be the leader of the market, it means whatever affects bitcoin also does same to altcoins. The slope in btc now is reflecting on some altcoins especially those that are community base coins like bitcoin. Doge coin and bgl are showing bear especially bgl that rose very high to $0.30 but has dropped to $0.038. While some are still doing well especially coins following direct movement of etheruem and exchange coin like bnb but generally, the volatility has reduced this week.

it Looks like everything is falling now mate .

https://i.imgur.com/0ewcXGf.png

The market is showing Red trending since Morning and the vast of the currencies are not going any good this past 24 hrs.

Altcoin shows a little confident last night but break the trending in the afternoon .

The more the dominance of bitcoin fall is the dropping from the altcoin happens also .

From 1.94 Trillion capitalization Last night , Now we are seeing a 1.89 trillion means 0.05 trillion fall in the last 24 hrs.

I dont think that altcoin trading is an indicator one way or another in terms of how bitcoin will run in the short future.  They might have coincided with each other in the past but I dont think it can always be used as an indicator moving forward.

Those growth is to be expected from last year since the market is coming out of the bear market. You will even see 1000x or more if you trace it back in 2018.

They are saying that because of what happened in the last bull cycle but will it be the same if you consider the fact that the market drivers has changed?

You can start with your exit strategy now if you want.

But who is driving such Euphoria?

UHHH i love the perspective of that last awnser....you are completely right!

Looking back in the past isnt really bad but making out some presumptions or assumptions that it will surely happen nor simply you do try to correlate both of those scenarios
then this wont really be giving any assurance for it to happen again because no technical indicators could give out exact things that might happen in the future.
All we can do is presume and hope that market would really be going on what we do anticipate. Bull run of altcoins isnt always the meaning that bitcoin
has ended up its bull cycle.They dont really correlate from time to time.

The pressure is being felt by most crypto, as Bitcoin is on the process of correction those that relied to Bitcoin are doing the same.
We can tell that after this and when Bitcoin bounce back the chance that those who pumped up during Bitcoin pump will also experienced
the same thing as they are working along Bitcoin, in the side track, coins that following ERC and BSC are doing things independently
from Bitcoin, they've got the attentions and they are showing good benefits to those investors who support and follow their project.

Pumping? I think altcoins haven't been pumped like crazy, because in the BTC altcoin pair only PUMP at 100% or to the previous resistance,
if it has reached new ath in the BTC pair then I can say it's altcoin season and be careful with Bitcoin, because it's altcoin season starting,
the Bitcoin price will continue to fall.

Timing-wise, I think that we've still got ways to go before the bull market is remotely close to ending.

Alts pumping hard simply illustrates the amount of FOMO that still exists in the cryptosphere in general, and I don't think that it is fair to attribute the end of the bull market to that particular indicator. The hype is honestly warranted to a certain extent with the amount of institutional interest in ETH.

I'd say that until we see a major resistance that is unable to be breached (I expect perhaps $100k), the bullish uptrend will continue to go strong.

Nope. Still early stages for the bull cycle. Expect it to be much larger and longer than you think. Bitcoin is building a base at $50,000s...think about that!

I don’t want to be believed as “completely right”. You should verify the truth yourself if it is indeed the truth. I’m merely a pleb-newbie in the community who is also on a long journey of learning. “The hard way”. I thank the good people in the forum, and trolls for their help. They force me to ask questions, and research.

From history, I've seen that alt pumps after bitcoin bull run. But I haven't seen the BTC bull run coming to an end. I don't think this is the pinnacle of ATH Bitcoin yet. I still predict that the highest BTC value peaks at the end of the year. between October, November, and December. and will be followed by several altcoins such as ETH, BNB, etc.

this is only according to my point of view.

Altcoins pumped many times in the past and the bull cycle didn't end. However my prediction is that when LTCBTC pumps like crazy, then it means that whatever the top for BTCUSD was, was most likely the local top.

Right now LTCBTC is like 0.004BTC, if it goes to some crazy number like 0.02BTCLTC it would make LTCUSD valued at something >$1000. That would mean its probably due for a correction. Same way how last time it went from like $50 to like almost $500 right before the bear market started.

This is something we all should look for. And it can happen at anytime. LTCBTC started to pump a few days ago.