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To help the community I thought of putting together a few tips learned through sports betting and see if anyone else has ideas that might contribute to success. I only gamble for fun and tend to stick with the small free bets that casinos give out. This list was mainly put together while taking welcome offers and doing a bit of "matched betting". However, it was quite a learning experience and hopefully help you to avoid some silly mistakes.

Know what you're betting on. It sounds super simple, and it is, but if you are new to a certain game, don't get carried away by thinking you have a certain way to win. If you are usually placing soccer bets and suddenly jump into horse racing, it is very easy to think that the top rated horses will always win but many times they do not.

Start with small bets. This ties into the last point slightly, because if you are new then you definitely want to start with small bets (unless you need to place a certain amount to unlock a welcome offer) until you are confident that you understand all the risks - you might needlessly lose a lot of money otherwise.

Make sure you understand the odds. I personally always go into the settings section of any gaming site and switch to the "Decimals" option to display the odds. This could come down to personal preference, but I've found it far too easy to make mathematical mistakes when trying to read odds in fractional format. Some examples: 1/1 = 2.0, 1/2 = 1.5, 2/1 = 3

Read all the terms relevant to your bet. Be sure not to place a bet on the outright winner of a competition, when you only intended to place a bet on a single specific game. If you have to place a minimum amount to unlock a free bet or welcome bet, along with minimum odds, be sure to understand what you are doing - only the first bet you place will count in many circumstances.

Don't be afraid to contact support. There was a couple times when I knew that I placed a proper qualifying welcome bet, but simply did not get it credited to my account. Another time there was a glitch that was preventing me from depositing. After a short chat with the someone on the helpdesk, they confirmed that I was eligible for a reward and it got added to my account. You might have to dig around and go through help sections in order to find the live chat.

Double check you have entered the right details. It can be easy to get carried away if you think you've found a great bet to place, but make sure do not rush it! Take a breather and read through the bet before submitting it, before you get a rush of regret by overlooking a silly detail (e.g. shots on target vs shots taken) or putting too much money on it.

Stay away from games like Dice unless you are doing it purely for fun. These games are designed to favor the house over the long run and you will not win. The highly repetitive nature of the game may also build a habit or leave you thinking that there is some sort of pattern going on, both are dangerous thoughts. If you know what you are doing and just want to take a chance then go for it, but you will not make any consistent money from these zero skill games.

Does anyone else have ideas on how to gamble successfully?

Sports betting? Maybe if I can odd, know the teams that you are betting, specially before the game.

You have to check the line up if they are complete or someone gets injured and doubtful to start specially star players. This could really spell from winning and losing your bet. If you do pre game betting and base your bet that the team is fully healthy and the star players are going to play. But during the start of the game, for unknown reasons the star players gets injured or decided to rest and not play.

Maybe the odds will chance at the last minute, just saying.

How come dice was included here when we are just talking about sports betting?

Maybe one suggestion that would help is don't bet on parlays, and don't chase your bets by doing live betting.
Based on experience, these kind of bets are killing our bankroll, especially on live betting, if we are chasing, sometimes it will result to wiping out our entire bankroll, so always stay discipline in controlling your emotion.

They're not really specific to sports bets only, most of the stuff you said can be generalized in all types of gambles out there. I'd reckon the best tip when it comes to sports bets, in general, is the research and study involved in the scene. Sports have a number of teams/players that are involved, not to mention the different factors that you need to take into account when betting. If it was a simple W/L, then there are far less stuff you need to study, but if you were to go into it deeper and start betting on specialized results, then that would require more research and study (though you could just enter it willynilly, I guess that's also one way to bet).

All the points you mention are valid and actually known. But it is again a nice summary. One point I would add, which I think is one of the most important points in gambling, is money and balance management. With intelligent money and balance management you can survive even very bad periods in gambling.

These are all advice for gambling in general. They're all applicable not just with sports betting but also with the rest of gambling games, may they be casino games, sports betting, lottery, etc.

As also pointed out by Yamifoud, the last advice seems to be out of place because you are talking about "Tips on how to place sports bets." Dice is not sports betting.


Just enjoy it. Don't forget that you are gambling to have fun, not to make money. Gambling is spending not earning. If you are aware of this while gambling, you are already successful.

That's a fair point. I guess it might have been better to include something about potentially misleading games that are really just disguised random number generators - like virtual horses for example. There is no skill involved in them, but lots of gambling sites add functionality that imitates real horse racing (like "tips", "previous form" and "history"). Most people will know this already, but some might be fooled by betting on such things.

A little extra, if you're talking about sports betting.

strategy: is also a good factor in betting in sports betting, although every online sports bet is ticked by a factor: The 'luck' strategy is also the first step towards improving and helping one have a very good chance of winning.

Facts: choosing a team, the type of bet with where you start online sports betting, strategy: can help you put your money to bet.

But as we know sports betting is a factor of luck, sport is always based on skill in mastering and learning every fight.

Sports betting has become more and more common around the world, and as such, many people are beginning to get more and more comfortable with it.

All of these suggestions are excellent and important to all newcomers, but I'd like to highlight one more that I believe is crucial:

Choose your bookie wisely. Finding the right gambling site should always be your highest priority.

The OP has mentioned some good and valid points which we must consider before placing any bet on the site as this sports betting market is becoming risky with growing popularity.I would like to add some point:
1) You must choose in which crypto you want to trade and whether that particular casino support that currency or not.These days transaction fees have become a major issues for ERC-20 tokens and your winning amount could be sacrificed with fees so choose wisely.
2)Trade you looses in a fun manner and try to learn basic skills with time and turn your mistakes into profits.

Enjoy your game and keep playing.

You can't win all time when it comes to gambling so stay within your betting limit because you will most likely lose a lot of money quickly if you don't. Bankroll management in sports betting posted by Stedsm is a good read https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5286000.0

This was actually a good twist in his post. He probably had a great experience with Dice hehe.

If you will be able the odds between the teams or players, then you will have a higher chance to win in sportsbetting. The thing that makes it easier to win in sportsbetting compared to other pure-luck gambling  games is that the outcome is in the hands of the players or that they have control of the outcome most of the times. Ofcourse luck will still be there but most of the time, if you know who and what you are betting your money with  in this field, you will get the win on the bet. Also, Be careful on manipulation on the outcome which is quite observable nowadays especially in online gambling.

Well you know I do think you can win in dice games also if you do keep your bet small and at some sites there are a range that you can pick yourself. This is much more profitable and at the end you can make a good money for sure. But then again it would depend on where you are playing since most sites have different types of such games. At the same time I do think that if you are talking about sports betting it's all about knowing the players even better than themselves at the same time it's highly Important to keep a track of the news and their life alike. Much like stalking haha. Most of the times sports betting is easy money for people who are really accomplished in this section.
At the same time I do think players should always choose a good site to bet on since it's always a good idea to check the reviews in advance.

nice tips that can be useful for newbie on sports bets. however the suggestion about "dice" is valid for any other game with an house edge since the mechanism behind will be the same. I want just add to your suggestions:
- not play to much event in a parlay bets since the real odds of winnings will be drastically cut.
- not be focused on "big jackpot" since lucky isn't a profitable way for earn money in long terms.

Since this is mainly about sports betting, I would advise users to always straight bet vs parlay betting. The odds of your bet increase with each team you add to a parlay bet, but the odds of you winning that bet decrease greatly with each team you add. In a parlay you have to win all bets or you lose the bet.

If people understand the rules of parlay betting well, they will understand what they need to do. In its essence, the higher the risk, the greater the victory. Although it allows players to choose any first match they are sure of, football contains unpredictable fluctuations, so the risk of having to win every match is high. But I think most players accept it, since the returns are exponential  :D

This is one of the best tips which I always seem to forget.I try to add a lot of teams with small odds but as we saw yesterday Manchester City made a lot of people lose their bets including me.I have played single bets in Champions League during these last stages and when I have done so I have won a lot of more often than I have lost.Unfortunately most of the time greed gets the most out of me,I also think this happens with a lot of gamblers.

Because most of the famous Sports-Betting sites have an option to play Dice with very less deposit and high outcomes. You will be tempted to deposit a part of your winnings into the dice game to try your lock. You know, Greed.

OP Seems to have missed a very important point
 - Make sure you're playing on a reputed Sports-Betting site because if you win big, scammy sites will introduce a number of conditions like KYC/Bet verification to lock you out of your funds. Always, play safe even if the site promises massive deposit bonuses.

Gambling has nothing to do with skills otherwise please explain us what specific skills have lottery winners. This is just a matter of luck, so that's totally wrong to claim you can't make any consistent money with gambling games, if you're lucky you will do. Unfortunately it only concerns a tiny fraction of gamblers, so that represents only few people, but those people exist and can be anybody.

Start with small bets on much known games. Take into account a detailed list of sites providing odds for the game. From that you can get to know about the average odds for each team associated with the match. Further, it is good to make a note on the winning prediction from different sites and choose the one that is predicted to win out of the collected data.

Bet not on those much known games but on those games which are very familiar to you, those games which you play and have been following.

If you are going to base your bets on the winning predictions by the majority of sites, you are probably going to end up betting with the favorite most of the time. The odds are already reflecting those predictions. Odds are products of the analysis of experts. I think it is better to make a bet based on your own analysis and prediction.

Nothing much, just do a research watch replays from the teams you're interested to put your bet on.
In addition to what you have in the OP;
Before placing your bet, make sure to check the odds. Sometimes the odds doesn't seem so right. Example an underdog team is playing against the odds or slightly have the odds like they don't usually have. Well, there might be a very notable reason for that. The most common scenario for that is , the opponent's star player isn't playing.
So, that's one example of the importance of pre-game news to adjust your bets, and mitigate the possibility of lossing.

The thing is, we choose sports betting because we believe we do have a good chance of winning here, unlike on luck based games which are purely based on luck, here we can use our skills and develop if it if we are not that consistent yet, but it always comes with discipline which is to focus on sports betting alone.

Totally agree on the first tip. You can't just be betting on a game or a team you have no background knowledge of. Doing so is the common recipe for losses. It's you're money we're talking about, so it actually wouldn't be that bad if you pay a little mind to whom and where you're betting. Because that increases your odds at winning more games and altogether winning money. Research on each team member's skills and weaknesses, and then compare them to whatever the enemy team can offer to the table.

One rule is missing: Don't feel like just because you know a game/market really well, that you're guaranteed to make a profit on it over the long haul.

The betting markets have arrived at these odds for a reason and have likely accounted for all the probabilities using currently available information (that you could possibly be oblivious to). To try to beat the wisdom of the crowd over the long run is a seriously difficult task.

Unless you're a professional tipster with a proven track record, just have fun. Your expected value on a game you know extremely well compared to one that you don't know at all is very similar.

One of the things you should consider to check on before you do make out any bets on where to check out those information which would really be helpful for you to find out
on whats the current situation on where a certain team you do tend to make out some bets.Not all the times that they would really be completely playing which means
it can really affect the overall team performance.Sportsbetting isnt just something that you can simply put up bets without any analysis or basis.
Dont make out blind bets and also check if the odds are really worth to bet on.

If we can use our skills in analyzing the sports game to find which team has a big chance to win, it will help us win. But most people do not want to do that and use the tip from other people, which they do not know if that person has skills in analyzing the teams. Improving the skills in analyzing the teams will not easy because we need to learn many things, including knowing each team that will play. But yes, if we have discipline learning for many lessons and can focus on what we learn, we can improve the skills to analyze the team that has a chance to win.

The thinness of the betting markets on certain new or less well-known websites can also be a factor. You can get some great odds out there, it's often just a case of finding the right site. Unfavourable odds on one particular site might be completely different and much more appealing on a different site. Obviously with internet betting you're not limited to the betting shops in your own city... you have the whole world to go at.

thats a suicide if they follow tips from strangers because that tipper can be a lier but its okay to follow tips from the people that you know like in this forum there are pro sport bettors here that give tips  and its not bad to relax and and enjoy by playing a dice game  .
this can loose up the tension that build in you by too much foccusing on how to win in sports betting but nice post op i have increased my learnings especially in the decimal part (odds ) because im a noob in sports betting .

Yes, it is because we do not know who the tipster is. Maybe we can follow the tips from people here who have reputations and try to give us information. But we still need to search for more info because that will not be enough for us to determine the team, especially if we are a noob in sports betting. But the important is we can relax for a while and enjoy playing gambling games. There are many good lessons that we should learn to become wise gambler which knowing about when the situation to gamble.

^ Definitely right, there are other gamblers simply to jump in the games that they did not know as long as they have funds to gamble it and thinking on based of luck game. This is very basic, we should know first what is our betting on and then next know which team or player you betting on. That is very important most especially each weakness of the team. Nevertheless, there are too many factors to consider and it should possibly search first who is injured in the team if you are in a team match. But all in all, this was a matter of luck.

Those things you wrote are not how to gamble successfully. Instead, those are what should be done before placing bets but being successful in on the question. A gambler, after following those guidelines, once won big will be tested how far they can go without realizing they are now on the wrong path then eventually will lose. And after that loss, they will become aggressive to chase that loss.

Being a responsible gambler is being controlled only by us.

it was fun reading the OP though. why he includes it is just a warning not to go for dice but stick to sports. what was said was all obvious but these are also common mistakes in sports betting. i normally just bet for boxing and MMA but because sometimes there will be no fight on all weekends which i tried baseball and end up losing the fact that i don't know the sport and the teams.

what i can add is that. if you are to bet on boxing or MMA and you see that it's almost a mismatched fight, bet on who is going to win. NOT whether it will be a KO or by submission.

Agree, I am accustomed to using odds in decimal so when I use a new site and get a different number of odds I immediately go to the settings to change it, but if none is found then I would be better off leaving the site because I just don't want to push myself. There are many other sites that provide decimal odds but yes, that goes back to one's habits because for me betting is about understanding and being comfortable.

I'm just not sure there is a way to gamble with success over the long term even if it is sports gambling. But indeed, if you always have any info regarding the team that will bet maybe that will be the way for you to be successful all the time, but still the experience of long flying hours is very necessary for you to be able to control anything well in gambling.

Sports betting really requires or counts on luck, it is also a game of skill that can be learned and mastered to win more and have fun at the same time.
and having a betting strategy can help increase your chances of placing a bet with a good chance of winning, not just relying on luck as strategy, expertise, experience, skills and other things related to sports betting are also needed and to create winning chances.

All of OP points makes alot of sense to me but would love to chip some points: Team players verify; ensuring as a sport bettor you understand the team players you are likely to play with, sometimes these team start failure outside the pitch becasue of bad team players. Also, Funds managerial skills; is one of the most important in betting as without this skills your allocated funds might just went through into the wrong betting teams, instead diversify your betting. 

That's called bankroll management in gambling term. Well, knowing the team or the game is very important, why would you bet a game that you are not familiar, that's not good, our intention is to enjoy and win at the same time and we can only do that if we are too familiar with the game we are betting.

If a gambler loves baseball, he should focus on this game, if its basketball then focus on it.. less sports you are betting makes you focus clearly, so you have a good chance of winning or improving in the long run.

Lots of great advice came in and to sum up the best additions (sorry if I missed yours!)

tyz - Money and balance management. With intelligent money and balance management you can survive even very bad periods in gambling. Variance is natural in some games and you must be able to handle swings.

Stalker22 - Choose your bookie wisely. Finding the right gambling site should always be your highest priority. Stick with the biggest casinos or you're taking a big risk that your money might disappear or bets not paid.

aysg76 - Transaction fees. have become a major issues for ERC-20 tokens and your winning amount could be sacrificed with fees so choose wisely. Keep an eye on any additional fees incurred before moving in & out.

bitbollo - Parlay or multi-bets are for suckers. The real odds of winnings will be drastically cut. You might not know it but bookmakers make the most money off parlay bets, as the odds greatly shift against players.

bitbollo - Avoid chasing big jackpots. Since lucky isn't a profitable way for earn money in long terms. Somewhat similar to the above, casinos loves to dangle large jackpots over players to entice more bets.

Joel_Jantsen - Protect yourself. Scammy sites will introduce a number of conditions like KYC/Bet verification to lock you out of your funds. They may even misuse those private documents if they do pay out.

Oasisman - Timing your bets. Use pre-game news to adjust your bets and mitigate the possibility of losing. If you bet too early and star players drop out, it could cost you big money - so bet close to the event.

Money management and emotional controlling, to me, are the most important issues which are the same in trading. I have seen many reckless gamblers who make like 10 bets in a day with a big amount of money which they cant afford to lose. Only a little research is required before making a bet, therefore, you must be responsible for what you are doing.

My strategy is simple. One football league is enough for me. I prefer Premier League because it is the biggest league with lots of money for license and media, and it is hard to manipulate any game (soccer corruption is frequently seen in my country). I will choose 2-4 matches each week to gamble.  Thats it. I will never violate my rules by making extra bet which exceed 4 or joining other games which do not belongs to the PL

Let's modified this statement a bit;

For that kind of concern,

a.) try not to do withdrawals regularly or make it by batches. In that way, the user can save more fees and

b.) Stay away then from depositing or withdrawing within the ETH network. Some gambling sites support other cryptos with less transaction fees e.g TRX, DOGE, XRP, etc.

I agree about watching replays and concluding what that team is good at and if they've recently lost and you like the team, watch again if there's something wrong and see it closely. That will help you attain the satisfaction upon betting whether the odds are good or not for that team. But because you're betting, you're wanting to have the best odds for those matches and if you find it not so good, you can skip that match and just wait until they have a match again that has a favorable odds only for that team.

When checking out odds then its a must thing rather than letting yourself betting on 1.01-1.1x odds which i dont really see for these numbers to be worth risking.

Ive seen mostly with noobs that they do stick out with the heavily favorite which is normal but if you do really look up the odds then it isnt really worth.

Games could really flip upside down which might really result into a mess.Even if you are confident that you would likely to win but its never been an assurance.

Thanks for the tips, I use quite a few of them myself. To what you've mentioned here I can add:

- mainly play short odds; while it won't bring a lot of money right away, it's less risky, perfect for beginners, and will bring profit in the long-term perspective

- don't stick to "betting strategies", they will lead to a quick loss

- if you're a frequent player, consider house edges in your calculations

- at least know the basics of probability; many players wrongly assume that if the odds are 1:1 this means that approx. every 2 bets they will win and therefore place big bets. This is wrong!! Odds only make sense in the long run

What range of odds did you consider short-odds?

Did you know that always picking those odds on that range is even riskier compare to the decent odds? Just do everything to analyze the game and since there are lots of betting options, try to take those you think you can handle.

Low odds aren't less risky. There are no safe odds.

Another tip i'd include in there is probably the promotions as sportsbooks tend to offer certain promotions on popular events and sometimes you could get a lot of value out of it even if you're a small gambler.

Do you mean the popular ones like martingale or just any strategy in general? Having a strategy doesn't always lead to a quick loss since it still depends on how you'll manage your stakes after every loss or win.

Exactly, there are two kinds of strategy, a losing and a winning stategy, if your winning strategy is still effective, why would you change your strategy, right?
Every strategy should be specific and we should not mix up sports betting to other games with house edge.

Less than 2.0 in decimals I consider short. Why is always picking short odds riskier? I've never heard of such a thing. I don't play a lot, but so far picking short ones turned out not so bad for me.

Yeah, I referred to the popular ones. Of course, some strategies are good to follow, like the ones that help you manage funds, or help in picking the right odds.

I'd agree with that small odds, if that's the only odd that gives you for that match, that's really not worth of your money and instead you're going to win a very small amount against your big bet. Better just to ignore and match and move on to the next one if there's a possibility that the betting odds are going to be higher than what you've made. That was strategy before to just go with the favorites and not thinking about odds but that had taught me a lot that odds do matter.

It truly depends on the sport you're betting on. I mean, I've seen even the best players beaten in Tennis bets who had pre-match odds of less than 1.5 so odds less than 2.0 aren't a guarantee of win at all. I'd also like to let you know that I bet on cricket matches too and when it's about IPL (Indian Premier League), games changes every moment so even the best team with less odds stands no better chance at winning the match and while that's the case, I simply hedge my bets by first going for the higher odds team and then, if they start to win and the favorite team starts to lose, I bet on the favorite team to hedge out my bets.

Do you really think that there can be a winning strategy in sports betting? It seems illogical to me - too many factors that matter are constantly changing, so even if such a strategy existed, it would have to constantly change (to fit the circumstances), but in this case, how is it different from guessing or a series of successful bets?

Of course, there are many factors that contribute to changing the evaluation of clubs, such as improving and decreasing the playing level of most clubs, so the strategy must always be changed.

 Overall, I think the majority of the advice cited on this topic is sufficient to improve our skills while betting on sports matches.!! I guess the sentiment factor needs to be evaluated while betting!!!

My idea is that by collecting and analyzing information about the club and the players, we can get some information about their chances and if we are super successful in this, we can beat the bookmaker (theoretically), but this is not a strategy in the conventional sense this word. The strategy is very versatile, which can be applied in different conditions and should lead to approximately the same result. There is nothing like this in betting.

and remember, betting in sports, if you are truly familiar with such sport, has better chance of winning. rather than playing those luck-based games. if you breath and live a particular sport, you will know the potential of the club/players when they are already on the field. so the chance of winning is higher. this is why there are a lot that can make a living via sportsbetting.

Low odds are risky because we need to bet a decent amount to win a nice return.

Actually, around 2.0 odds is a mid-tier odds for me wherein there will be difficulties on my picks.

Not betting within 1.5 below odds even how dominant the team is in the case of ML.  I'd rather take the risk of betting on high odds instead of losing on that low odds.

Something that you can done during live games, it's tough to predict as mentioned even the favorite are also prone losing against the under dog, in sport gambling there's always shit that can happened.

Not even you did whatever research you know but once luck didn't comes your way, you are still going to lose your bet.

Bookmakers are relying with how bets being place, odds are changing from time to time depends from how the game will push furhter.

Completely agree on the first two pointers you made regarding sports bets. It's always better to have a couple of background knowledge on the game you're betting on and the team you're betting for. Since that is what will almost always decide whether you win the bet or not. The second pointer makes sense too, because being a high-roller isn't always a good thing and testing the waters most of the times is the key ingredient to winning more games in sports bets.

I do really agree with this. Some people may be only following others for what they are betting without any analysis or even understanding what we are betting. this is not good, likely we are betting on something blind.

Does it mean that gambling on Dice really is mostly based on luck? And we may have only small chances to win?  ;D ;D
I also feel the same because I so far cannot analyze or predict the exact dice for betting  ;D

"balance management" i am happy you mentioned that, i think it's one of the most important things, a lot of people have problems doing that, including me sometimes, you have to control yourself and just throw random amounts on random bets, have a seat, relax, think about how much you have and what goal you want to reach, even if you lose a lot lot bets in a row, don't panic and try to recover your losses right away, this last thing cost me a lot in my gambling career.

If you still do not decide which team are you going to wage just base on the odds mostly the match-winner has the lowest odds and the underdog is the highest odds if the odds are the same or close enough I don't think so risking this game is higher. But if you know those teams, getting your own research and analyze who is the capacity to win the game it's a safe haven, and can be an advantage to earn a profit easily and win the game without losing any money. This is a sports game single mistakes can change the run of the game and make a comeback this is very often happening in a sports game still risk management.

Dice is actually a highly unpredictable game TBH and it's next to impossible to predict even an over/under 49.5/50.5 for a 2x bet. I've even got a losing streak of around 7 losses on 1.10x rolls which was like "Why the hell did I play dice?" Only players who know secret seeds can suck the hell out of a casino like a player did to Primedice, but that's cheating which isn't honest.

By the way, I read the twitter of a former tennis pro - Kafelnikov, and sometimes he gives predictions for various sporting events (mainly tennis, but not only) and he turns out to be right very often. I have not checked how much stronger his predictions are from the bookmakers, but at first glance, he could beat them.

There are certain people giving perfect prediction on the outcome of the game. We don't know whether it is some sort of coincidence or it is the result predicted after hard analysis. It is always a good choice to follow these people before making bets. Myself used to check with different sites and place the bets based on the winning probability for the match made based on viewers thought.

I don't trust any of the professional forecasters - they only advertise themselves or some courses or sell the "right" bets, this is an information business on a gullible audience. Kafelnikov interested me by the fact that he does it just for the sake of entertainment and his predictions surprise with the percentage of correct guesses.

I long stop following predictions from anyone whenever I do bet, it's just sometimes it's not for me that I don't even win or whenever I follow them I just don't win, it will better to trust instincts and research about the team or players to really win. When there is a chance to watch previous games of both contender that's the only time we can decide even we hear or read predictions of what may happen on the game.

If you bet on the viewers thought you may win more often than you lose, but the payouts are probably very little if you always go with the opinion of the majority.

But it is more winnable when you are betting towards your Instinct ..

I also love betting in Low odds because i am looking for more Higher winning..

This is another good point, there are people out there who are above average at selecting winners. It's a slightly self defeating idea in some ways however, because if they are really that good at predicting outcomes then A) they would likely just make it into a profitable career and keep their ideas to themselves or b) be found by bookmakers who would take their long term winning streaks into consideration when determining fair odds. We all need to remember that bookmakers are using some of the most sophisticated prediction software, with decades worth of historical analysis, when automatically pricing and updating the bets they will take - with a margin of safety added on top. However, if you are content and willing to grind out low profits across many bets, this kind of strategy might work - just make sure you track the profitability outcome over time.

Instinct in betting is not necessarily the best way to go about it. Sometimes yes, but you can easily confuse instinct with luck. If you think in soccer there will be a corner in the first 5 minutes for the home team and it happens, would you call it instinct or luck?

Sometimes the in game situation gives you a certain feeling, I think that is what you mean. Need to be brave enough then though to eventually place the bet!

Yes, I understand that due to the mathematical advantage over the long distance, the coolest player will most likely lose to the bookmaker, but apparently there are segments when a person is maximally involved in a certain sport and can calculate the odds more accurately than the bookmaker. And by the way, we all know that any software sometimes makes dramatic mistakes, so a person always has a chance (not at a distance, but at separate intervals).