Bitcoin Forum

Wondering how effective is Glassnode data of BTC inflows/outflows to exchanges?

1) Large group of whales sell BTC OCT

2) Whales then coordinate to send very large amount of BTC to exchange to cause a "bearish signal" on on-chain data

3) People panic and sell BTC, price drops

4) Whales buy up cheap coins and laugh all the way to the bank.

Do you think this scenario is realistic or not?

How much of it is priced in do you reckon?

Can't the whales simply coordinate in the following fashion to manipulate market?

Onchain analysis seems to start to make noise. I already looking always on these kinds of analysis, especially the outflows/inflows of Bitcoin amount on such exchanges.

What's on my mind about the inflows/outflows is  "they can also manipulate the market by just doing some huge transactions".

For example, a whale moves Bitcoins in 1 transaction to exchange, but we don't know if the whale will sell those Bitcoin, right?
Or vice versa, what if there is a huge 1 transaction coming out from the exchange and send to a personal Bitcoin wallet, does it mean they bought Bitcoin on the exchange?

It is not as effective as you may think because crap like this has existed for a very long time. As far as I can remember it was around for at least 6 years and of course many try to use them to manipulate the market and there is always some newbies who panic by seeing the lies on the internet but the overall market doesn't care about these things.

For example seasoned traders don't even subscribe to these services to waste their time only newbies do and newbies don't have that much money to begin with!

Additionally when a certain market manipulation is used a lot (like the China banned bitcoin FUD, which is one of the oldest market manipulations) it loses its effectiveness and this is already too old.

BTC movement to exchanges scared a lot of weak hands/newbies before and I'm pretty sure that also influenced them to sell.

I don't know. It's hard to speculate how much the price would drop from news like this. If a whale attempts to dump, another whale would counter trade and buy the dip.

Again, hard to tell. AFAIK, most of them trade independently. They follow their own charts and analysis.

This is key. Whales manipulate the market and their disclosed activities are used for this purpose.

On-chain analyses are interesting but two ways to extrapolate the meanings of data and apply it for investment or trading. Such data is more meaningful for investments.

I agree with your opinion. Additionally, whales manipulate the market and enrich their balance (in fiat and in BTC). They can increase their BTC balance from 1000 to 2000 and reserve very old BTC - years ago, for price manipulation in the future with sudden transactions from old UTXOs.

u know what , they just create a data, and the next thing it's depend on you, which you will follow the market movement or still confident holding , that's it. if u have think like that so probably u seems paranoid for me, i don't believe they work together each other, since we talking about money.

Never thought about it as it doesn't interest me as much as these days but you have to ask yourself about data providers. They want to make money as well, so they might take funding for research from rich players. It might even pay them off to just leave out certain incriminationg data (or in case of CMC just pay to get wrong data there;) ).

One never knows in crypto.

OP, you can’t win vs. the whales in their own trading-game. You sell, they pump Bitcoin, you buy, they crash the market. They do that to get what they want most from you. Your Bitcoin. Plebs should HODL, make it difficult for those whalecumulators.

On-chain analyses as from Glassnode data and analytical releases give the crowd some sort of delayed reports.

The crowd always move behind the whales. If you spend money for a Paid account, you can access real time analyses but the crowd only wait for news from media. They only get free news from media when things are set up.

I mean:

• Whales buy at cheaper price than the crowd and they do it much earlier than the crowd
• Whales exit the market before the crowd.

You can use those free news at somewhat extents but don't feel FOMO or panic with such news.

Plus why would plebs like us try to beat the whalecumulators in their own game? The only way to beat them is to actually buy and HODL, and never give them what they want. Our Bitcoins. They want it? Buy in the open market, and help set price discovery.

Many people spend their money to buy Bitcoin. They are different people who can be: trader, investor, speculator and gambler. If they don't have knowledge about Bitcoin, don't understand Bitcoin & its network, they will easily to be manipulated by news.

Their decisions are arbitrarily made and not based on any reasonable things.

Whales manipulate the market but not all people on the market lose their money or Bitcoin because of whales. They lost because of their emotional and unknowledgeable decisions. They gave up plans because they only have half-belief in Bitcoin.

Glassnode data is for those who want to analyze in the market and make sure that there is no tampering with it, so it is of importance to large companies and institutions and not for individuals or at least individuals who have sufficient experience to anticipate the use of the analyzes that they carry out.
For beginners it is not accurate and you may not be able to predict it accurately. Therefore, if you do not know what to do with data it is best to use free account.