Bitcoin Forum

Yes I am still me hehehe. I am always the skeptic and always the contrarian, however, also the realist.

I have 3 reasons why bitcoin might not yet be entering a bear market.

The last time the RSI on bitcoin has fallen to this low was September of 2020. It pumped from $10k to $30k after this.

https://i.ibb.co/8Kjv74L/63-C76354-47-BC-4-CE7-B692-59-F8147-C2-C20.jpg



Coinbase has announced that they will begin to support Tether. It is speculated that Tether is pumping this market. It appears this might not stop soon.


Coinbase announced late Thursday that its Coinbase Pro trading platform is adding support for Tether's USDT, dollar-tied stablecoin.

Source https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linked/102687/coinbase-pro-announces-support-for-tethers-ethereum-based-usdt-stablecoin



The last reason is the unconfirmed transactions are decreasing. Those transactions that paid for high fees might be transactions sent to exchanges to confirm quickly for dumping. It appears to have ended.

https://i.ibb.co/JQDfGtc/3-DA4-A8-B1-FAB5-4620-8-C84-599-AD2-EC849-D.jpg

Bitcoin can not enter a bear market because the bull run has not yet ended. It has to first end before the transition can start.

Get ready for all the Tether FUD to come out again, specially since it will coincide with the end of the correction and the start of reversal. As we set the new ATH in May, the FUD will set a new ATH too :)

In other words the FUD that came with the small hashrate drop is nearing the end and the weak hands are not considered "empty hands". :)


Let me just leave this here too, jut for fun:
https://i.imgur.com/QRrg2Up.jpg

Some gems from 2017 (chart above):
Dead cat bounce? (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1970189.0)
Bitcoin [@$2400] is a bubble article (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1946918.0)
Demise of bitcoin under Eth (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1963141.0) this one is from the king of idiots called kwukduck

This is just a flash crash and I believe that we are going to experience an uptrend movement from next week onward. Cryptocurrency is not for weaky hands due to its volatility and those who know what they are doing always reap the benefits thereafter

This isn't like is the first time we're experiencing situation like this, all those thinking this is the beginning of the bear market will all get disappointed. Things are just getting heated up, this corrections will happen frequently to shake out weeks hands. This is the best time to accumulate, as many coins including bitcoin would be at discount. Lets not also forget, it's the weekend and this might just be the usual weekend selloff.

Next week would review what the market has in-stored. Already the market is recovering as there's no tangible reason for the crash, try browsing to see if there was any fud spreading but can't find any which just proved the dump is merely a healthy correction. Once again we'll be having those that'll regret letting go of their coins in this panic times. We just have to hold through as that has always been the best investing strategy.

I remain to argue that they are speculations about Tether. They are not FUD because Tether only showed attestations. They were not audits.

I also have another speculation and this might be FUD hehehe. However, I ask who is the creator of stock to flow? What do we know about him? Is it not possible that this character was created by Tether while they manipulate the price to move very closely with stock to flow hehehehe?

Saying iFinex Inc (Bitfinex parent company, also creator of Tether) is shady and have never been able to provide any proof that their USDT is backed by USD 1:1 is not FUD, it is a fact. I have also warned people basically any time they talk about moving to a "stablecoin" in times of volatility.

However, saying Tether controls bitcoin price and the reason why it has gone up is because of Tether, or as you put it "Tether is pumping this market" is a big ass FUD.

In a sense "Stock to Flow Ratio" existed from day one and the idea even existed from the day people figured out the supply and demand concept, it just didn't have a fancy name or a model to follow. It also didn't say "scarcity drives value".

While one should always be careful when it comes to Bitcoin, the FUD regarding bear market from 2017 seems to be repetitive given how many threads are open on the subject wherever I look. I wonder if it’s just ignorance, or do we have professionals doing it for the reason of trying to influence the market through this forum as well. I don't need any other reason than the fact that we are in the year after halving, which will only show its effects in the second half of the year - and people who persistently ignore it do not even understand the basics of the crypto market.

USDT coming to Coinbase too? I lived in the belief that this stablecoin was already present there given how much trading volume was being made there. I can only repeat my opinion about stablecoins in general, and that is that they are even worse than fiats in terms of transparency - they literally print them as much and when they want without having to prove to anyone that anything is behind them - I wonder when that house of cards will start collapsing.

the RSI had touched -30 already which could bounce again making you think the uptrend continues but its the weekly chart that indicates whether the bear market started already. because if the RSI traverse down to 50 in the weekly chart, it could be bloodbath.

traders however thought the cycle this year is different because of the adoption of big companies and the corona virus is adding the pressure to institutional investors to use btc. maybe this cycle could really be a super cycle.

All the previous corrections are necessary. I am measuring the rate of increase and decrease from the price of $ 20,000, which is considered a peak in the price in the past. $ 64,000.
All these indicators indicate that we will rise above the barrier of 10,000 dollars soon, within 3 months to 6 months and not after 10 months.
bitcoin will not enter bear market if we back to 54000 dollar

For me it is the opposite of how the OP puts it. Those who believe we are in a bear market are the ones who have to provide arguments to prove it, the burden of proof is on them, not the other way around. As @pooya87 says the bull market is not over and as @CryptopreneurBrainboss says those who think this is the start of a bear market are in for a disappointment. What happens is that there are people who get discouraged easily and other people who have been in Bitcoin for a short time or do not remember what has happened in past cycles.

In pooya's chart the similar area to catch a bid would be about 40k pricing where a prior ledge exists in the pricing.     I'd advise caution for the small time player till we pass 53k (https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/AVfP5.png) but I dont disagree we can turn around largely even with a great pullback it can end and still a new high can occur.
   We are on the 2 day average now, back and forth and a crossing over the weekly average is still some distance off so that too is lacking conviction to upside.   We have certainly slowed any descent and its quite reasonable to question either direction as possible now.

In the past ATH, Tether has played an important role to put the market into a bull run. This time, it's not all about it but about the institutions.

But it's not yet the end and there's still a way not to stop the bull run if Tether's going to be used again for the continuous bull run if it's going to be in Coinbase.

The price of bitcoin was stable somehow by the heavy transaction fee. While withdrew of btc from binance, it's nearly 0.0005 btc as a fee you need to pay. It nearly 25$, no one will ready to pay for the little transaction. Instead they will hold till the price of bitcoin may boost up.In localbitcoin, their wil be incoming transaction fee it's around 0.0003 bitcoin.

I do not think that it is on the bear market neither. I mean this is not a "contrarian" approach, bitcoin as 58k and went to 43k and that was a "crash", many people called it a bear run starting, many people said we were going under 10k again, what happened? It went to 64k instead. So, do not listen to all the bear callers as soon as the price drops, many will call it a big drop and many will call it bear, not everyone can agree on everything.

This is why I think we are not on a bear market at all, we just had a big correction, it was due to few news that happened, new tax hike in USA, Chinese miners offline, and many stuff like that. However it is going to pass, it is not a forever thing, we are seeing a slow but sure grow back again which is important because it means the price is not dropping and that is why I care about it, that is why I think this is much better.

Look, this short term correction seems to have gotten everyone panicking.

The bull market as of now is still completely intact. There is absolutely no indication that markets are going to flash crash without warning from this point on. An adjustment to a raging, unsustainable rally is more than natural.

Institutional bagholders are aplenty in the bull market, and that's what sets this one apart from the ones that came before. These institutions are much less likely to be weak hands that panic dump in the midst of a bear market - in fact, they'll likely take the time to double down and load up on even more.

ha of course bitcoin hasn't entered a bear market. bull market is still in early stages and everything points to that fact. Consolidation is not a bear market.

Let us all see in the coming days. If the price of Bitcoin cannot climb up again at least at $60,000, then perhaps we are already in the bear market. If we end up just reaching $50,000 and then lose it again after a while, then we might have entered the bear market. But if we are going to hit another rally that would let us see the $60,000 level once again then that fall in price was just a correction at its worse form.

Personally, seeing Bitcoin climbed up again at $52,000 is a sign that the bulls have just taken a short nap and will resume its aggressive run any time soon.

Bitcoin is confirmed in a bear market. It's last bear market before the world officially moves on to the realization that safe fiat is the best store of value.

You say that it is a fact that iFinex, Bitfinex and Tether has never provided convincing proof that USDT is backed by USD 1:1, however, all speculations that they might be printing billions to pump the market is FUD? FUD is based on false information. The basis of the speculation that Tether is being used to pump the market is based on according to you a fact.

I also never said Tether controls the price. I said it is used to pump the price. However, let is agree to disagree.

Drops to 47k early this morning and now? climbs back to 52k

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

Is this the Bear that they are saying? all of them are just sending FUD but don't understand what this market is all about.

and those People who claims to be a Bearish market and Altcoin is started , surely once the ATH once again taken by Bitcoin ? they will cry hard loud for bitterness .

Shower thought. What if proudhon is truly a faithful Bitcoiner, more faithful than anyone in the community, that he’s willing to act the persona of the troll or a character, but a stupid troll, to make all the real trolls look stupid.

Proudhon, I salute you.

https://media4.giphy.com/media/3o6EhVqAY0JNGNLlU4/giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e472tjqo4u7xh4t1yv8vwpz1si5uiah7f4vxf73em3k&rid=giphy.gif

Many thinking we're in a beer market are those that bought the last peak which was way above $60k, you don't have to blame them though as probably they're newbie wanting to jump on the opportunity they were seeing on the social media of people making thousands of dollars from just cents and hundred of dollars investment.

Everything is crashing now as funds are been pulled out of those shitcoin to be secured in stablecoin. So to them the market is crashing not knowing that their shitcoin are what are crashing and not the cryptocurency market generally or that of bitcoin to be more specific.

The bear market won't officially happen at the moment. This small dip is good and healthy, when the price rises quickly and significantly, there is time for a dip to hit. The current trend looks like bitcoin will rise and reach a new ATH in near future. Btw if we have a look at past trends, serious gains will happen at the end of the year. There was halving in 2016 but bitcoin reached it's all-time high in December 2017. We had a little bit early significant rise but at the same time rise wasn't as huge as it was on previous halving, that's why I think that 65K isn't the ATH of the year.

Yes it is FUD because if you check the trading volume that bitcoin has against different fiats on average during a month for example and then compare that with the same average volume in the same time frame but for altcoins versus Tether you can clearly see that the majority of bitcoins trading volume is in fiat not in Tether. In fact most of Tether usage is in altcoin markets not in bitcoin.

Also if printing Tether could pump bitcoin then how do you explain 2018 which was the big bitcoin bear market and the biggest amount of Tether printed during that year?

I don't believe that the bear market for bitcoin has officially happening maybe it was a price correction but not a bear market instead because bitcoin has recovered its market demand quickly. But to be honest, the last price correction of bitcoin gave us a quite a little confusion because from an ATH of $66k it goes down to a $49k, hence it is a big difference right.

Waiting what would be the next thing happen to the bitcoin price was the best thing that we can do to see if we are now in bear market or so forth because crypto was unpredictable and volatile, a wise guess maybe applied but not all the time.

Bitcoin will most likely not enter a bear market soon,but it's not because of Coinbase adopting Tether or some historical price patterns.
Bitcoin will recover,mostly because the problems that miners in China have will be solved and the hash rate will start increasing again.
The news about Coinbase and Tether seem like an upcoming Bitcoin price manipulation.
I don't want the Bitcoin price to be manipulated again,but everyone will be happy and excited,when the price hits 100K USD. :-\

Is that started happening? I am not seeing most crypto new services are updating on this but when considering the business model and how long we are seeing such a dominant contribution from China on bitcoin mining, I hope mining companies will sort out those flood issues and get back all their machines into mining like before.

Manipulation will be an integral part of every markets and bitcoin cannot be an exception; in some sense I believe that we need those manipulators to drive prices toward $100k and then one million levels. People manipulate for their own benefits and experienced people also get chances to get benefits from that, so manipulation is not that harm in general.

However everyone, you should remain as realists and accept that bitcoin is on a bubble that might burst unexpectedly. Everyone is going to the cryptospace presently to get rich quick and live their dreams. But the bulls do not remains bulls similar to 2013 and 2017.



Young South Koreans are reportedly turning to cryptocurrencies as a means of generating wealth in greater numbers , much to the chagrin of their employers.

Many of South Korea’s young workers aged in their 20s and 30s are leaving their average paying jobs to explore crypto day trading, according to a report by local news outlet The Chosun Ilbo on Tuesday.

Their goal is to escape poverty and amass enough wealth to buy a home, a dream many young people worldwide feel is out of reach.

“I face the reality of being unable to afford my own home no matter how hard I save up my salary,” said one anonymous worker cited in the report. “There is no other way than cryptocurrency investments for me to accumulate wealth.”

Source https://www.coindesk.com/young-koreans-crypto-wealth-alernative

This might be the reversal that we are waiting for or I hope this is the real reversal hehehe. However, this might really be the one. RSI and price are showing a bullish divergence with the dumps weakening after the latest negative news from China.

Elon Musk appears to be silent to avoid further losses on Tesla’s bitcoin investment and there might not be anymore moves on Tether from the government this year. Let us hope that this is the beginning of another long and large pump!

https://i.ibb.co/0K2GXcm/59-AD5096-F407-4763-B348-D72-B27-F7-C71-C.jpg

The institutional investors are coming back hehe. It appears that China’s crackdown will not be stopping the rest of the world’s appetite in investing billions on the latest technologies, particularly assets as volatile as cryptocoins and tokens.

Cathie Wood of Ark Invest also mentioned last month that the institutional investors were fearful in continuing their investment plans in bitcoin and the cryptospace because of Elon and China. This fear is clearly weakening.



Hedge fund firm Marshall Wace is plotting investments in the digital asset sector, say people familiar with its plans, as booming interest in cryptocurrencies and related technologies lures large asset managers.

The London-based group, which manages $55bn in assets, will target investments in areas such as blockchain technology, payments systems for digital currencies and stablecoins, according to one of the people. The group is launching a portfolio that will scoop up stakes in privately owned digital finance companies that are at a late stage in their development, the person said.

The firm has recently been looking to hire staff in the digital assets sector, the people said. While the new business is still at an early stage, the group plans to expand it rapidly in a move that could include other forms of investment, for instance potentially trading digital currencies.

The expansion by Marshall Wace, which has not previously been reported, marks the latest big hedge fund to spot moneymaking opportunities in the fast-growing digital assets industry. Last year Jim Simons’ Renaissance Technologies disclosed in a filing that it could invest in bitcoin.

Marshall Wace was one of a number of investors to take part in a $440m fundraising round for Circle, the US financial technology firm behind the stablecoin USD Coin, at the end of May.

Read in full https://www.ft.com/content/30bc58f8-c8b7-4e9f-a01c-bb3732ea5152

it didn't look like they went anywhere, they were all here and were buying bitcoin at these low prices. in fact the China crackdown was not meant to do anything to bitcoin other than providing buying opportunities.

imagine if one of these investors wanted to buy $600k worth of bitcoin, before the China FUD they could only buy 10 bitcoins but now they have bought 20 thanks to that FUD.

I would not say that they have gone somewhere and are now returning, they are constantly present, but they can be quite inconspicuous in their actions. I think that all big investments are made through OTC, which of course does not affect the price - so although many think that nothing is happening at the moment, I believe that big players accumulate BTC and some altcoins because they know it will result in big profits.

Of course, China always causes panic with its actions - but only among those who have only recently joined crypto - I know that they have announced a total ban on crypto mining back in 2019 - they have now put it into action.



I don't see how their investment in blockchain technology or stable coins would help Bitcoin, although I do see that they have some other plans - but it all comes down to how to profit from it all with as little investment as possible. Perhaps the biggest news in this story is that they have as much as $55 billion under their control, it's just a question of how much of that amount they are willing to invest and in what exactly.

If you think that a 50% drop an then a stabilization around the drop is a bear then you haven't experienced the 2018 drop which was way more devastating because the people back when bitcoin reached that point have been so hyped that they think it will continue to go up not expecting the prices to go down really bad. Plus, I think that it's a good rule of thumb to say that it's not bear market unless the prices are much lower or equal to the last year.

@BrewMaster. Yes they never left. I was implying more about their confidence on the cryptospace market. I found the article where Cathie Wood mentioned institutional investors went on pause after China’s crackedown on mining and Elon’s negative tweets.


Cathie Wood, the founder of Ark Investment Management, said bitcoin – which has lost up to 50% of its value in the last few weeks – has come under pressure from institutional investors concerned about its environmental profile. 

“It was precipitated by the ESG [environmental, social and governance] movement and this notion, which was exacerbated by Elon Musk, that there are some real environmental problems with the mining of bitcoin. A lot of institutional buying went on pause,” she told Nathaniel Whittemore in a pre-recorded interview broadcast Thursday?

Source https://www.coindesk.com/ark-cathie-wood-crash-esg-movement



@Lucius. Much of those investors will find their way to bitcoin, I reckon. How do you think it has maintained  its place in coinmarketcap.com hehe.

He is silent because effectiveness of his tweets ended basically the first week that he started FUDing bitcoin. Then the Chinese FUD began and he was happy thinking his FUD succeeded but as bitcoin price reached its bottom and didn't go any lower he decided not to insist on the  FUD anymore. It is also because he didn't think Doge could also dump hard as bitcoin started going down so when he was FUDing bitcoin while hyping DOGE it was actually dumping on him.

Actually the market is stable for mining BTC

when the price was 64 k and the diff was 25.05

the farm I run was mining 1700 x 0.0000047 = 0.00799 btc a day or $511  a day at a coin price of 64k

the farm I run now mines 1700 x 0.0000092 = 0.01564 btc a day or 516 a day at a coin price of 33k

So I have same fiat value but close to 2x the coins each day.

I am small compared to a 17eh farm my 1.7ph farm is not much
but bitmain claimed to have 17eh as its own hash. If that was off China they now earn

156 coins a day vs 80 coins a day.

Just to be clear. The  cloud farm to close  that was directly involved with bitmain was viabtc.com cloud mining. They shut down their ops a week or so ago.

Too complex for him to understand how crypto works (that every alt relies heavily on the fortunes of Bitcoin) and he already has his reputation battered so yeah, beat course of action now is to lie low and rough out this not-bitcoin-market-bear-after-all.

@philipma indeed it has been a surprisingly stable miner's market from what I am hearing even in parts of SE Asia where it's not the most efficient. This China exodus has given unexpected breathing room for amateur enthusiasts. Sounss like good news to me.

In my opinion on July it will be the bearish season for Bitcoin, but for now it still become stable in the market right now. And i think also the Bitcoin will enter the bullish season on October to January 8). But still it is my opinion only no one knows what will happen on market in the near future  ;D.