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NIESR has prepared an report which projects an loss of £700 billion for the UK economy in 5 years time, and they have blamed Boris government for this projected loss.

However I feel that UK economy will bounce back strongly, and not only will they prove this report wrong but they will be able to outgrow the pre pandemic economic levels.

The key reason for my analysis is that UK has vaccinated over 60% of it’s population, and this means that soon it’ll be business as usual for them, and hence their economy will be able to bounce back faster and stronger than what the economists had initially predicted.

Additional Information:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/may/10/uk-economy-to-suffer-700bn-output-loss-due-to-covid-and-brexit-thinktank-warns

https://www.foxnews.com/world/after-vaccine-rollout-success-in-uk-covid-could-be-eradicated-by-winter-says-top-scientist

People will always blame the administration no matter what happens, 700 billion isn't a number to joke at. Also, I do think that if UK didn't do the Brexit, they would probably have an easier chance to bounce back in terms of economy, now the people are suffering from that decision.

I agree with you, these analysis with a time frame of more than 2 years are usually not very accurate and feel one sided. When looking at the vaccination numbers than UK is leading in Europe. This means that the UK economy is the fastest that can return back to normal and will be leading compared to other European countries. On top of that will UK be able to export all vaccines ones 100 % of the population is immune. Another important factor seems to me are going to be future trade agreements that will be negotiated within the next few years. The positive impact from such trade is hard to quantify today.

A country's recovery cannot be measured by how many people have been vaccinated, because it is a public fact that the vaccine has a limited effect and does not protect 100% from infection. At this point, it is not possible to say with certainty how long immunity will last in people who have been vaccinated - but some analyzes say that it could be around 8 months - which means that all those who are vaccinated at the beginning of the year may be exposed to the infection again next winter.

What is an additional weight for the UK economy is of course Brexit and there is no dilemma, the numbers are clear, and they say that last year was the worst in the past 300 years. An important part of the UK economy is tourism, which accounts for about 10% of total revenue and employs just under 4 million people - and we all know that mass travel will not happen this year, and perhaps not even next.

Long-term forecasts can sometimes be wrong, but I don't think experts have gotten such a figure up their sleeve - the fact is that the UK has the biggest economic downturn that is not only the result of a pandemic, but also Brexit.

Let’s say that the report is accurate or false but the point that the UK was able to vaccinate almost the majority of their people is enough to bounce back in the next 10 years.  Indeed that vaccination is expensive but the rate UK was able to reach is enough to control the virus and make the economy work again and we will soon see people back on their tracks, I can tell that with strong conviction.

I really believe in the management the government was able to execute on this pandemic.  It’s actually a starting from the bottom now we’re here concept that the UK was actually one of the worst affected countries into the highest rate of vaccinated people.

The internal business might go back to normal but what about international tourism? What if people that want to leave the country to do business or have a vacation? What about the people that want to visit the UK?

"Normalcy only returns when 95% of the world population gets vaccinated."

the calculation is not based on real money in real bank accounts..

its based on the fictional measure known as GDP

everyone by now should know the GDP measure is not actually accurate to how much money an average person has/spends/saves..as a whole of the population

knowing the government. this is just going to be used to pump in another £800bill of QE

reality is.
pumping in trillions at the top. fakes a GDP to then be higher.. all while the real money doesnt trickle down to average citizens. instead it gets syphoned offshore.
..
todays queens speach and boris's net plan is about subsidising businesses. giving out student loans to anyone of any age and giving more funds to building contractors and tech researches..
so just wait for the next QE trillion to be materialised out of no where to cover all that stuff

It is always the current government/administration that will be blamed for the downness of its economy. And when the economy is up and at high, there's no talk about it.

There's no doubt that they will be able to bounce and recover. As soon as they get most of their citizens vaccinated, there shall be no worry anymore about the vaccine and they can now remove restrictions and limits it to a lower restriction but will allow its people to get back at least to their normal lives.

They are close to reach herd immunity and this is good but that is simply not going to be enough to cause the recovery you think will happen, the world has changed, many people lost their jobs and they indebted themselves in order to survive, many businesses closed their doors permanently and those jobs are not coming back and the habits of people have changed as well.

While there are some people that are going back to their old ways and taking advantage of their new found liberties many people are now enjoying a more simple life and they are not as consumerist as before, when you add all of that and the money that has been printed to pay for all of this the chances of a recovery to levels close to what we had before the pandemic in just 5 years is unlikely all around the world and not only in the UK.

It seems they're criticizing the UK and Boris Johnson for retaining an open economy rather than implementing full COVID lockdowns. Florida and texas in the USA also opted for open economies rather than lockdowns. There was also sweden which opted for the herd immunity open economy approach for a time.

Both florida and texas claim success with an open economy format. While residents of COVID lockdown economies like new york and california are losing residents (jobs and businesses) in record numbers.

From an observer's perspective, we have a few points of reference we might utilize in an effort to vet the accuracy of media claims. I'm constantly surprised by the different opinions offered on these topics. Its an interesting world we live in where everyone wants to complain and be offended. And very few seem to care enough to try to research or educate themselves on the fundamental facts of these topics.

Every country have their own criticism and we cannot blame them if they see their own government is not working that much and didn’t work based on their satisfaction. If you’re looking into a worlds economy, you’ll see every country is still suffering and they can’t recover that easily so expect the recession to last until the end of this pandemic.

Same opinion here. In a highly globalized setup, and most especially to a country where tourism is one of the top 4 GDP contributors, even inoculating 100% of your population does not mean full recovery. So the economic effect of this pandemic, and Brexit as well of course, may certainly extend up to the next half a decade.

There is a mixture of news but it is widespread that the vaccine does not really offer immunization. I don't know which particular vaccines, though. At least to someone who's got it from Pfizer, he/she may still be infected with the virus and will remain to be contagious. It seems the vaccine is not strictly a vaccine as it does not immunize but only prevents possible infection from getting severe. Not to mention that the virus has already mutated into several variants, some of which might be beyond the effectivity of the vaccines.

Just like the result on Israel where they vaccinated over 60% of their population and now they are back to normal, missiles are in the air again.
Anyway, even if you vaccinated most of the population I don't think the economy can recover that easily, and this pandemic brings out how competitive the government are, many countries are still suffering and UK is part of top list on most number of Covid-19 cases, that's why its not easy to recover, losing billion of Money is already part of the Economic recession, its happening.

What if the vaccines don't provide protection for more than 1 year?
I saw some medics saying that the people will have to vaccinate against COVID every year.I don't know if this is true,it's still a mystery for how long the vaccines can provide effective protection.
The UK economy has a big export and the export will grow only if all the other countries get rid of the pandemic and the economic crisis.
There was a trading agreement between the UK and the EU,so I don't think that Brexit will have such a big impact over the future of the UK economy.
 

Each Covid-19 vaccine gives immunity to the person being vaccinated, except that the percentages of immunity levels are different - so the AstraZeneca vaccine is said to protect in only 60% of cases - but to protect against severe disease in 100% of cases. In other words, it's not about people not getting infected, it's about not developing a severe form of the disease and ending up in a hospital with a fatal outcome.

Given that the costs of hospital treatment are very high and that the UK has a very small number of intensive care beds and medical staff in general (compared to the EU), relieving the medical system means a lot in financial and psychological terms.

There are already a lot of cases of people who have received 2 doses of the vaccine (from any manufacturer) and still become infected - so I don't think precautions should be completely abolished after vaccination - masks and hand disinfection should still remain one of the main ways to protect against virus.

Do you have any backing claim that there is something wrong with their counting though? I know that people are complaining about their own government but at the least there must be some evidence that they did inflate the numbers to make it look worse, also I don't get how the government is going to benefit from this inflation of numbers.

Its not going to bounce back per se but atleast it would be better than their current state because UK's GDP mainly comes from services sector and Manufacturing so it depends on export. That means if the whole world hasnt gone back to normal yet that might affect UK as well but atleast it wont be as worse as we thought it would be


So far there is no proven method on how to handle these stuff yet. Some country has opted to resume their whole economy system even with majority of the population hasnt been vacinnated yet which is bad from my own POV but they gotta do what they gotta do


I think you need to learn how vaccines works before you post this question

Yeah, that's enough.
The guardian is a leftist newspaper that has tried in vain with articles like that to stop the slaughter in the election when the LP got trashed, they've put all their money on the disaster with the virus and now they can't get out of it, every single person in the UK sees the numbers and can't think of a way to attack Boris anymore on that subject.

As for the NIESR, they are one of those "think tanks" that think whatever the guys paying them say. And they are getting funds from the people whose businesses have been impacted by Brexit. Although I'm not on brexiters side as I always believed in a strong EU at the same time it's pretty obvious a lot of the claims are highly exaggerated.

Btw, a new article from the Guardian published today admits with 1/5 of the mouth that the numbers are not that bad after all
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/may/12/uk-economy-rebounds-in-march-after-rapid-covid-vaccine-rollout


Then you get another shot next year, just like with common flu.
The problems were at first when there was no vaccine and insane demand, mass-producing those doses next year will be a piece of cake compared to the risks of another wave of similar proportions.

That is why we should not trust the common news. Big media tends to create FUD, chaos and misleading with propagandas. England is one of the best countries in Europe with high percent of being vaccinated. The economy will bounce back and together with the US, they will overtake the China and stop them from trying to assimilate the global finance

I understand that 700 billion could be wrong, or it could be right, after all economists know about this stuff than you and me and just because you "think" they are wrong doesn't make you right, it makes you someone with no education on this field (if you do go write a counter article about it and put that forward) going against people who spent decades becoming professionals at the job, its like saying I think Lebron will miss a shot I can make, makes no sense.

However even if we take your reasoning at hand it shows why you are wrong, you say it will be "better" because of vaccination which I am sure it will be better than right now, but that doesn't change the fact that so many people lost so much money already so going back into business will not be easy, people do not have money they used to have to help business' make a profit.

Nope, the report is accurate. When the UK locks down businesses and raises the unemployment rate, the only predictable outcome is an economic recession. The vaccine is being administered, that doesn't change the fact that commerce was basically completely halted, people left their jobs, and government began printing money. There will be ramifications (good for bitcoin, but unironically)

Let's not forget that there are a large number of such economists and professionals, and different groups or individuals make different forecasts with the same different figures, and it is up to you to trust their forecasts or not to the best of your competence ;) Here it is necessary to talk about a favorable and not very favorable scenario of the development of events, and I think 700 billion just from the area of the unfavorable scenario. In any case, lockdowns and border closures can not pass without a trace for the economy and no vaccination will be able to return lost profits and return losses to the agents of the economic process.

I think the reason for that it feels wrong is that they are inflating the losses so they can go for more taxes that will help them recover the inflated numbers, not to mention that with the inflation of numbers, they can slip in more money in their pockets since there isn't a lot of losses in the first place.

Well, the Guardian will usually put the accent on the most pessimistic of the options when a Conservative is leading the country. Anyway, there is a price to pay for breaking up with the EU and then having a COVID crisis.

Do not get me wrong, I am not saying that Brexit is bad in the long term, but I am saying that there is a price to pay in the short term and that the advantages, if any for the general public, are yet to be proven. The UK has taken a risk that could eventually end up with a loss like the one described in your post.

News has surfaced these days of how Seychelles (the nation with the most vaccinated people with two doses) is facing a new wave of infection, of which as many as 37% have received two doses of the vaccine. It should be noted that this is a vaccine from a Chinese manufacturer (Sinopharm) and the rest from Covishield (Indian version of AstraZaneca). If it’s not just about the type of vaccine, then it’s possible for this to happen again anywhere in the world.

Most likely that's the cause:
Top Chinese official admits vaccines have low effectiveness
 (https://apnews.com/article/china-gao-fu-vaccines-offer-low-protection-coronavirus-675bcb6b5710c7329823148ffbff6ef9)
They've rushed that vaccine as a form of propaganda to smaller and poorer countries and this is going to backfire.
Chile was sending alarm calls (https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/chinas-sinovac-covid-19-vaccine-67-effective-preventing-symptomatic-infection-2021-04-16/) for a while, in extreme cases with that efficiency you could basically halve the numbers of vaccinated people, Seychelles might have 60% but if the vaccine worked for only half of them it means they are just like the average EU country at this point, but with a dangerous variant, an influx of tourist and no restrictions that all combined have fueled the spread.
And there is also one more aspect I couldn't find simple google searches, who percentage of the new cases are locals and how many of those infected are tourists?

I wonder how effective Sputnik is, Hungary is the global leader percentage of deaths to population, doing two times worse than neighboring Romania who uses Pfizer.

Anyhow, probably we'll find out sooner than expected, the new Indian variant is already in the Uk from the start of the month, let's see how this will turn out.
Oh, and one more thing, probably the number of infections will not be that important as the number of deaths from it.

Is there going to be a recovery? Yes of course and that is true for almost any country around the world but it is difficult to see how are they going to stop China from achieving a position of global dominance over the economy when the dollar is being printed at a rate that years ago it could have seemed impossible.

Now I understand that China is in no position to impose their currency either as they manipulate that aspect of their economy as well, but the dollar used to have the confidence of the people and now that confidence is evaporating as we speak as more and more money is pumped into the system, and without a strong dollar the US cannot remain above China in economic terms.

Well, I think that it is accurate too since they have the instruments to measure how much losses there is and OP thinking that there's something wrong with the report doesn't have any proof that it is wrong because OP doesn't have any means to prove it. The vaccine rollout will significantly help with the economic losses because it will return the workforce.

The corona virus has damaged the economies of the many countries round the world but i do not think the united kingdom economy has lost 700 billion dollars. The us has recovered its economy much faster than other countries the speed of inflation is now more important than ever because the economy remains uncertain but it all depends on what measures are taken to stop the spread of the coronavirus and infection much depends on the business the financial market and therefore the family situation. Inflation is rising within the us if the present inflation doesn't decrease the economy will rise rapidly inflation are going to be allowed to rise further to offset the loss of covid.