Bitcoin Forum

Yes, a winter of 2-3 years is coming, if you don't believe this you will lose all your money, you need to understand how to play this game, holding is just a good idea if you really don't care about the invested money.

Bears are in control.

I'll only lose my money if I panic sell. But holding it won't. The value would drop but that doesn't mean it will lose and will go to zero.
That's why I'm holding. I've been holding with the past bear market so this won't be a big deal to me. The worry goes to the newbies who recently invested and they don't how to handle the market pressure and the psychological effect that it gives to them.

I don't agree.  This decline got rid of the people who were using extreme leverage and problems on exchanges prevented the people who wanted to buy to get on and buy.

We will see a base of about $42K forming and then up from there.

The first indication that the market is now starting to grow again is the decadent sentiment and the harbingers of a "crypto winter". I don't need to look at the price chart - this is all pure manipulation. Everyone around was in ecstasy, predicting a rise in the price of Bitcoin over 100,000 - get a drop in price. Now many are talking about the onset of the crypto winter - I think that before that we will still update the historical highs, and then, at the most inopportune moment, the "crypto winter" will come. Good luck everyone.

How low do you think this "bear market" you are talking about?

I don't think it's the winter time or bear market already, the price is quite high and profitable enough compared to the price last year. If you think this is the start of a bearish trend, the market should be dropping hard right now but it's not. And I am annoyed how high the tx fee and congested the pool is when you are just trying to send some BTC to someone and it takes a lot of time to process.

Weak hands are in panic and you can clearly see that in the mempool that people are starting to dump as if this is the end. They never hodl I guess because they just take the profit after they've ride the bull run.

Nah, it's too early to say that we are in the bear market, of course the price did go down to $30k'ish but we have bounce back already and just above waters at $40,000. So it's too early to say that winter is here, there could be things to come in the next coming months and recover what we have lost this May and then some.

As for the invested money, there goes a saying "invest what you can afford to lose", so I'm sure many has taken that advise by heart.

the fud starts again. bears could be coming indeed so just be prepare to turn your coins to stablecoin. US citizens are trapped however because Biden suggested 10KUSD has to be reported for its subject to tax. so much to speculate in crypto we are just not sure where things will go because if FED is panicking to regulate the rise of cryptocurrency, they are also printing a lot of money.

Bears are in control, but you're too bullish. The winter will last forever, there will never be a recovery.

this winter feels like yesterday. This winter will pass and it probably won't be for a long time. let's invest according to suitable crops this winter, so that there will be fruit that will be harvested in the future.

Don't be a fool when winter comes and don't be surprised when the harvest time comes, get ready to harvest lots of fruit when the harvest time comes.

If it recovers quick like in March 2020, then its possible to go to a new ATH however this drop was over 50% from ATH, it was huge. And many people got liquidated and most likely left the market. Generally everybody was waiting for a dip, so there should of been enough buyers to prevent it from dropping below $50K let alone $40K all the way to $30K.

If we chop around for the next few weeks instead of gaining a large percentage everyday. Then I think its safe to assume that $65K was the top. Things were getting out of control especially with Doge going to $1 almost and all those people making crazy gains of those doge coin copy cats that Vitalik ended up donating to Covid19 relief fund. Way too many people were making way too much money,.

Actually, you don't lose money in winter. Certainly not ALL your money. You lose it following the last bits of a bull run expecting to cash out at the tail, not knowing you got in at the tail. Besides, if you're an accumulator and investor, you simply wait for the next rally, that's all.

Speculators win at all times, arguably even more in winter. Until they lose, that is.

Can you prove that this market winter is going to last forever? Aren't you the FUDster who can prove that bitcoin is going to go down scientifically? But the problem is that I don't see you putting evidence of your claims, please stop using science as scapegoat for your FUD if you don't have any evidence, you should know that evidence relies heavily on evidence to be proven true.

you only lose your money if you sell, as the yearly cycle have reflected even if the price go down so much it will eventually go back up again, but you can't be really sure whether the market gonna turns bearish or instead continue to be bullish.
we all know that none of us actually know what's really gonna happen in the future since it seems using TA isn't couldn'y really help us predict the price but i'm sure it's just gonna do sideways around $38K to $41K for a long time, maybe we're already at the bottom of bearish or not who knows right?

That's right, but not everyone is going to be able to do that because some of them are using bitcoin as a way to earn a living and they can't afford to hodl it for too long because they have short-term goals maybe if we are all flexible in terms of our goal, we might be able to last in this winter.

I wouldn't call the current situation on the crypto markets "winter".I don't believe that the price will return to the 64K ATH anytime soon,but a price between 35K and 45K is OK for me.
Crypto winter will truly come when the Bitcoin price drops below 10K USD.I don't see this coming,but there's a small possibility that it will come.You never know what will happen on the crypto markets.
3 weeks ago,everything was FOMO,now everything is FUD.Maybe we will get back to a FOMO phase after a while.

When I see people screaming FUD, nothing is bad, we're in a bull run that's for me the perfect indicator we're running out of steam in a bull period. The more people try to label everything as FUD the more it's clear they're are panicking themselves and are trying to dismiss every aspect from the start.

I've seen this before, nothing bad can happen to BTC, everything is good for BTC, people selling means only strong hand are holding coins, despite the fact that just a few days ago we were talking about bitcoin getting mainstream, the price going down is also good, it means we're not in a bubble anymore, we're already at the bottom, how can it don't be good to lose 50% of a value in one night! This constant denial is clearly showing how the trust in the current situation is eroding.


So let me get this right, if
a) I have 1 BTC and the price drops from 50k to 20k I don't lose money because I didn't sell, and my stash is still intact 1btc=1btc
b) I have $100k in the bank and inflation if making those $ worth enough to buy a VW Jetta rather than an E-class, I will not lose anything because I still keep my money in $, and I will still have $100k even 50 years from now when that's the price of a soda can

2-3 years is just too much.
It already recovered a bit from the dump that recently happened. I don't think it will be that long before it goes back to a $50k line.
With so many investors looking forward to entering the market for a cheaper price it will be a short span.
So if you find a window to purchase then go for it. I doubt there will be a high chance for it to be dumped in a lengthy period.

Of course winter is coming, we have 4 seasons in the Northern Hemisphere and winter is one of them - but winter always comes after autumn, not before summer. Consequently, announcing a crypto winter just because we had a big price correction is completely wrong, since until a few days ago we talked about how the bull run will continue in the second part of the year and that it could have its peak in Q4.

It's amazing how easy it is to manipulate people and convince them that they will lose their money if they don't sell - and all those who have sold and failed to buy have already been manipulated. Yes, winter is coming - but only in the minds of those who blindly believe the garbage that is served to them every day through mainstream media and social networks - so prepare your virtual snow shovels to try to dig yourself out of all that garbage that will fall on you.

Then better to get some woods that may last that timeline before you experience that shivering cold. I happen to read this article https://www.newsbtc.com/news/bitcoin/bitcoin-cycle-comparison-chart-lengthening and I guess it's likely this is the thing that may happen and July my friend is the winter that may shiver you from your disbelief.

Check this recent video too: Bitcoin: Defending A Theory I Do Not Believe In (https://youtu.be/fdLyisKaC0U)

Not a winter. More like a Spring now. Markets got flushed after months of wondering if it will go down and how far. The other day we got the answer. Market feels much refreshed now. No blow-off top, no winter. Accumulation phase begins now. Bitcoin will be pushing new ATHs by late summer or early Fall. Still on target for 100k by end of year.

There will be no ATHs by late summer or early fall. Bitcoin will never reach 100k.

If the bears are coming, then so be it. I will still hold my coins for some time and I will buy more if the price is getting down for deep. I already take my profit before. I am okay with what happened to the market, but I still want to profit from the market to wait for more. I still hope that some altcoins can increase to give me the profit to get the money from the investment.

If we are not selling any coins in the bear trend, we only lose the value of the coin and that value can back increase in the future. But if you sell the coins, that will make you worry if you can not make a profit in the future because you can be late to buy back the coins.

This kind of situation will really test our mentality as traders, because in this bearish market condition, not a few traders experience panic and do Cut Loses (CL) to minimize losses, even though if you think about doing CL, it will worsen market conditions because the selling volume that occurs is getting higher, from the experience so far, when the price of bitcoin or crypto is falling, of course the whale will collect a large amount of bitcoin and will most likely push the price back up, and like you, I prefer to keep my assets on the exchange instead of having to CL and suffer a number of losses, because I am very confident that the bulls will come again.

That happens to some of my friends who can not hold their coins, even we already tell them not to selling their coins. I admitted that the reason why they do that is that they need to make money from trading. Some of them use limited money and they need to survive from trading and they think fast to cut losses before the losses become bigger.

The crypto market will be back like before and we only need to be patient. The whales themselves try to accumulate more amount by buying the coin at a low price and that is their benefits because they have a lot of money that various potential coins can buy.

History repeats itself.  Starting in the mid 90s day trading became a big thing.  Many went broke, some killed themselves, some killed other and then killed themselves.

a good time for bullish will always come when its the right time and yes during winter sometimes it occurs and no one can stop that.. And for sure only those greedy hodler cannot retain the righ time to enter again because they already out of the business wherein better luck next time for them.. Lol  indeed during winter there's always a good improvement in the crypto market,, so expect after this hard fall it will jump to the next level like what's always happened.

Haven't you said that already, like ... countless times? What makes you think that you will be the correct (this time)?

I really do not believe that to be that much true. I mean yeah there were some people who commit suicide, even during this fall there were a few that I heard, but people are forgetting the number versus the total number. There must be millions of people who lost money and under 10 people who killed themselves, that is not really a bad number if you ask me in a bad situation. Sure we would rather have that number to zero but crypto can't be considered the cause or even the problem here, there are millions that do not kill themselves maybe the people who did should be checked a bit more carefully.

One I heard was a real estate agent who sold a house of someone's, and instead of transferring the money he put it on leverage so he could make a quick buck before he transferred and got liquidated so he killed himself, does that really feel like a crypto problem? Or a greed problem instead?

My model has been updated and uses perfect math and science plus only confirmed news sources.

You came to a conclusion when there was a correction that the cryptocurrency winter is here and it will take a few years for the market to recover and two days after your conclusion just check the market as everything is recovering which shows that your assumption was wrong and all the market recovered and every coin is in green and some of the coins recovered over 30%.

You would really be seeing these kind of calls and speculations whenever on whats currently happening or the situation that do happen in the market.We can really see those speculations

that this is the start of the winter (similar to this), bitcoin would head back to 10k or other stuffs related to this which isnt surprising to see these things on times like these

without even realizing the probabilities that the price might really be giving out some recovery after some correction and its not totally the start of the winter
or bear market and yes its true that we are currently seeing some recovery atm.

I do agree that a bear market is due.

However, I don't think that it's a great idea in any mania to even attempt to call the top. With the level of enthusiasm and FOMO in the market, this current correction that everyone is predicting to be the dead cat's bounce could be the next leg up.

But eventually, $50k is way more than what is a long term sustainable price for BTC imho, at least at this stage. Until mainstream institutions (not just Microstrategy and the like) start transacting with BTC, it's likely going to correct down to the $20k neighbourhood and rest at the support there.

Bears cannot take control until they throw btc below 25k, so don't call it a bearish season yet. Crypto winter is a different matter where all the crypto either goes sideways or more sales happen than buys, which ultimately decrease the price of the token slowly. Crypto winter can take place when all types of investors get out of the markets and don't want to invest, so when they hold their fiat, who will buy crypto? I don't think we have entered the crypto winter yet. Let's watch how the markets react in the upcoming days as it bounced back on Monday, watch it if it holds to it or crash continues.

Your thoughts or analysis it is in the temporary gap in which you move and logically based on the history of bitcoin, but the point is that anyone who does Hodl must have an estimated time to make his movement, there are very few people holding that they can make indeterminate hodl.

In any case we are in the "real" price at least from my point of view the "organic" in the strip that expected it from being located for these days $ 35k- $ 45K. But I am one of those who see the Bitcoin ending the year about $ 70K.

In any case you have to buy at the seasonal price "always" is the key to the game, you can not stay still without reinvesting, in fact invest in the 4 seasons, the true Hodler ever have bitcoin at different prices, if you know how to handle that, you always have profits in any winter season or spring, summer...

Maths and science says you are wrong...  :-*

Read:
A study in England showed that almost 80 percent of day-traders lose money.
https://www.barnettandcompany.com/2020/08/03/party-like-its-1999-the-return-of-day-trading-and-its-impact-on-the-markets/


https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/analysis/new-study-shows-just-how-unprofitable-day-trading-is/#:~:text=Researchers%20found%20that%203%20percent,making%20more%20than%20minimum%20wage

Wait till bitcoin goes to $100k-$200k and then we'll see if what follows is a 2-3 year bear cycle. So we haven't reached the top price yet, we are in the sort of mid break bull run similar to 2013.

So if the cycle repeats itself again, we might see bitcoin hitting 6 digits in December 2021 or January 2022. So let's see how it goes, price is now $40k, good bounce back from the $30k'ish couple of days ago.

We will look in the next few years about the price of bitcoin whether this cycle is similar to the year mentioned or if only the bears are able to control it, but now we know that price can be influenced by time and we can only wait until it reaches its highest level.

$ 100k- $ 200k is a high price if it waits until it is reached then this will shock the world because bitcoin has now reached its peak value, well the question is maybe any big drop we say bears whether this cycle will be the benchmark of history before it or indeed the trend we face?

Prediction at the peak of this bull run is around that ball park number, remember that it's early to call that we are in crypto winter, give at least at the end of the year and see if you are really in bearish trend.

So it's going to be interesting to compare it to 2013, yeah, past events are not guarantee for future success, but that's all we have right now, bitcoin market is fairly young and we are looking at it's past and predict the future. And we knows, if we reach six digit, it will really shock the world but not for those who have been in this game and have seen at least one bullrun/bearish cycle.

It's very hard to believe that. If you use the word "perfect", it should imply that it's infallible, but you're constantly wrong with your predictions. Why is that?
According to these facts, I conclude that your math is not perfect or you are not using it correctly.