Bitcoin Forum

This is the 3rd or 4th time Bitcoin has Shot up to ATHs nearly vertical and then corrected itself. Should not be surprising to anyone at this point.

I have been saying for months that Bitcoin will most likely drop back down to the 20k range. Just look at the chart from 2018!

https://i.imgur.com/zkcWis9.jpg

What do you people expect from this last bull run?

Far, far too bullish. We're most likely going below $10k, and will never make new ATHs again.

Anything is possible, what makes you believe no new ATH though?

Mathematical and scientific analysis. Also bitcoin is clearly a failed experiment that uses too much energy, just like Elon said. And now everyone knows it and nobody wants it. USD is better and safer.

Now this is where we disagree. The Price is relative to the Energy Usage among other things. If the energy to cost ration is not profitable then the price will reflect that.

Elon should also know that Gas-powered vehicles burn less fossil fuels than it cost to charge his Teslas. 

And if people are so concerned about Energy, they should probably get rid of their 5 TVs, 3 refrigerators, 2 tablets and 12 cellphones. Yet, it's much easier to virtue signal.

I think you are presuming that this cycle will be essentially similar to the past, as is often the case, and it doesn't have to be. People who make forward-looking predictions based on the charts of the past often forget one little thing:

Reality.

The institutional adoption we are having this cycle has never happened before, and I don't think it's going to stop because of Musk or China. The Bitcoin price does not follow a deterministic pattern that we can calculate based on past price performance. It is the events that are happening that drive the price.

Personally I still believe we will pass $100k at the very least.

The 2018 drop happened around mid-January so I don't think that it will be the same as back then since we are already pushing to the end of May and we still don't have the really big crash happning which you predicted, the moment that bitcoin surpassed the mid-January crash that happened back in 2018, we were already in the dark at the time.

This is not new it's been going on for years, and yet people are always in a panic to sell their coin when there is bad news that caused the market to go down, when investing and making a profit from the bull run expect a drop at the least we expect it to happen.

Bitcoin is doing great we all thought that it's going for another milestone and that is reaching the $60k mark, but unfortunately, we have experienced the opposite, in a highly volatile market expect the unexpected anytime.

Now people are so concerned about conserving and waste of energy when you cant even apply it in your own household.
There are a lot more unnecessary use of energy than Bitcoin as a currency use to transact internationally without the need of banks and other payment processors.
I don't know how you define a "failed experiment" when Bitcoin has been existing for more than 11 years now and it's value has been rapidly increasing, more merchants and big companies are accepting Bitcoin for payment, central banks recognizing Bitcoin, and so on..

Without a doubt those investors who recently crashed and got burned will be far more cautious and pass on their tales of loss to new investors. (Otherwise they'll be bound to repeat their past mistakes adinfinitum.)

A failed experiment? Let's see:


Looks like you got that part wrong. I wonder what else you might be wrong about.

If they repeat the same mistake then shame on them because they are greedy people who wants to make a lot of money in such a short time in an investment that is volatile. Hopefully, newer investors don't have to suffer the same fate as this old investors. Also, what goes down must come up, this is just a stint in the ever long history of bitcoin.

those in the margin trading got burned the most. at 40k its becomes confusing to analyse the trend as to where it will gl from there.

when the price drop from 52k to 30k, jerome powell then announces that cryptocurrency isnt reliable dus to price volatility and then talks about cbdc. this is very timely.

Just accept it man, Bitcoin is death. From here we go to single digits. It's over. The tulp mania topped out. Ponzi scheme finally imploded. Sell all before it's too late. İf you would have listened to all the threads back in 2013 and sold everything it would have been the best thing you could do. Just exit this scam and hold things with real value like fiat. Bye.

A fellow mathematician I see.

2018 had a rising dollar after a decline for most of 2017, it reversed the bias where as now I've just seen DXY try and fail to start a recovery in its previous losses.   Its not a great supply we have a massive gap and weakness from monetary expansion, its quite deliberate and Bitcoin is not likely to especially devalue in the face of that.
   Alot of bad news and profit taking, I still count it as quite normal and its also normal that people are impatient and expect an immediate return to the highs which will take time for sure maybe the whole year I dont know.

I'm watching lows (https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/AJO6z.png) here to see if we consolidate or break into a lower range especially.   Below 200 day average could be considered negative easily however the direction of the 200 DMA is rising which gives some clue to future positives and I would not count against that even if near-term is continued speculative profit taking and weakness.

I was surprised seeing bitcoin suddenly dump.  After the Elon Musk fud, here comes the China FUD.

This will not stop as people might panic and bring bitcoin to even below $20k.
It's a correction together with FUD, it's a very effective strategy to bring the price down.

Our happy moments are over, we will not see bitcoin reach $100k this year, maybe in the next cycle of bull run

BUT STILL, HOLD!

Well, most of them expected that there is another ATH will come.
However, the correction went on because of negative news coming at the same time. Just imagine, --let us start with Elon Musk’s nonsense tweet. One of the reasons why bitcoin increased is the influence Elon Musk made. Withdrawing is the initial statement that affects the decisions of the investors he convinced to go in. Second is the news about Binance being under investigation by the SEC and Department of Justice. This would affect the price big time. And lastly, China banning financial institutions from offering cryptocurrency services. Well on this time, this is overkill. We should expect the correction and wait until we recover. That is how we will be playing it.

It's coming down and that's making every speculation about the bear market likely and in effect. But even if it goes down to $30k or $20k, so let it happen. We're still come far and those who have sold at the top can have their chances now to get it back cheaper.

I'll also hold no matter what the FUD will be all over the mainstream media. This is the natural market that we're seeing and good thing that we've come this far and we can have the conclusion that it's just another cycle that's about to happen.

Many people miss to see this since majority keep looking to see more pump and thinking that we can shoot up more, I myself think that to but when I see a big fuds like currently what happen now I already secured my funds to usdt so that I will not left bag holding any alts and buy when the storm calm again. Bitcoin seems going for more dump since the threat still there but hopefully we cannot see more upsetting dumps since I'm sure many bag holders will be produce by this huge marker crash happening these days.

Your fellow mathematician seems to be a hacked account in 2018? Lol
Sold everything in 2013 and cry in 2021, I'm impressed with the Mathematics right there  ;D

It is much better to secure assets to fiat to secure it from falling continuously for me this is still not calm enough and bitcoin will continue to be thrown away after many threats from FUD news do not stop thinking this will continue who knows how long it will end, but I realized only recently a few days bitcoin dump feels like it will still be recovering even it is difficult to say in the near future so we still have to look at the situation.

It's really a market crash I don't want to keep any coins in my bag except the fiat which I secure it is better not to fall for the price drops even this could be even worse than the current lowest price.

Stable coins are very helpful in this crashing market. As we are not sure what will happen next, sometimes, it is good to convert your crypto to your fiat or stable coin, and just go back when the market is going green again. However, it still depends on your strategy, some will buy more promising alts as they are eyeing for potential profits in the future. But I believe the crash will be different this time, as there are so many institutions involved, even big companies that are in play in this market, the crash will not hit rock bottom.

This is where knowledge will differ in each person and if you do able to save up yourself before the crash then that was a good move because the market had eventually crashed and if you havent
then you had just missed out that opportunity. Its true that what goes up would always comes down because this wont be called a market if we would only be moving in one path.
So its up to someone on how they would be saving up their ass on in times like these because there would always be a time on where we do really have some corrections like this.
So you should be wise from time to time.

You can't call yourself mathematician just cause you taught you think that the prices will never go up again, do you have an equation or something that a mathematician would have to prove that the prices are never going to go up, I always see your FUD that it won't go up because you have proven it "scientifically" or "mathematically" but there are no proofs to be given.

Bitcoin might be on a bear market, however, it is very impressive on how far it has gone to reach a new level of bagholders. For the next 4 years we are together with famous athletes like Tom Brady and Sean Culkin. Laser eyes from Brady, Sean Culkin doubled his position this week hehehehee.

https://mobile.twitter.com/tombrady/status/1391746521381617667

https://mobile.twitter.com/culkin22/status/1395936897524932611

You are right but this time the correction was just too big to digest. I know it was going to drop at some point but so much support from so many angles led me to believe that it won't drop that much this because surely we have enough investors holding this time.

I wish I saw what you said but I still don't think I would have believed the way Bitcoin was cruising nicely that it would drop that much. Now that I have seen it with my open eyes, I still fail to understand how this keeps happening.

Similarly when it drops somehow people panic sell knowing it would go higher but that's just human tendency we cannot believe something that is coming down and cannot doubt what's going up in terms of the price of an asset.

well I don't want big losses in conditions like this so I move my assets to fiat while waiting for this correction to finish, but this is also me while looking at how the movement in the market and if there is an opportunity then I will not pass it, of course in this case it is very vulnerable if we choose the wrong choice even though this is already a risk, I will continue to try to avoid it and do not want large losses to repeat itself as before.
There are at least some signs of sight and the market looks green again and there is lots of positive news about cryptos so there will usually be a recovery back to the way it was.

It's not an end to the bull run for btc, but it is also not going to continue the way it started off. First Elon, then China, both of them crashed the whole crypto but I look it as a positive sign as correction was important, so it came and higher are the chances that it will continue, but we are getting btc and altcoins for discounted values, so why bothered so much? Should buy and wait for the remaining partial bull run.

Depends on each person on how they would see a certain situation and make out analysis from it and make out some possible plans or movements or steps whenever theres a sign of some
movement where you can easily make yourself get out and save up yourself on possible loss.So its a bit involving some luck when it comes to these calls.
Yes, its true that what goes up must come down and i said that this market wont really be moving in single path and it cant be called a market
if we do just see that it do continue to rise without any correction and price decrease.

My account got not hacked. Some people just have to understand sarcasm. Nobody is crying here. I hold since 2013. That tiny correction, no big deal.

I never thought it would go this high. And I never thought it would go this low. My investment case for bitcoin has always been that it is a store of value; an item of access to wealth. The fact that it is such a disruptive technology is secondary.

But, Bitcoin is a technology. Just like Gutenberg's printing press, it is changing the way we do transactions. For now, it is still at a critical inflection point and no one knows how well it will fare when the world and our demands change in the next few years.

I don't think that this will be a repeat of 2018 per se.

The market is much more developed now with loads of institutional interest that won't just sell off because of a minor downturn in the markets. The resilience of the overall cryptosphere will be greatly strengthened with companies like Microstrategy that are committed to buying the dip and hence stabilising the price action.

Now of course, the bear market will come, and this is the start of it most likely. But I'm just saying that it likely won't be as protracted and bleak as last time.

Now the crash is really alarming and better to secure our funds on stable coins and but for those people who got stuck at the top I guess its up to them if they do cutloss our grabs some funds to buy again at cheap on the market since for this they can possibly recover and have hodl balance for long term.

I guess we can experience more dumps and I expect more fear will spread due to the current continuous price drops.

I agree that we should not always look at things only from the negative side, but we must be able to see the current market crash,  there must be
a positive side. Maybe because since the beginning of this year until finally Bitcoin managed to go up to a price above $ 60k without correction,
finally there is a correction now. Since a healthy market does need correction, now is a good opportunity to buy Bitcoin and altcoins at low prices.
The most important thing in facing the current situation is our patience, because people who can be patient will get happiness in the end.

Its always going up and back down again also, everyday pretty much but if we go up more then down its a gain so people just describe it as up.    Its pulling back right now but I'll judge it positively if it holds certain levels in that pullback.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/AJ9Zb.png

This is the convergance of the weekly, 2 day average and also a trend up and its all about 39k.    More widely observed is the 200 day average and thats the recent ceiling to pricing, not surprising and so not really bearish to pull back from somewhere predictable.   I'll take it as positive if we keep above this area roughly about 38.8k

This is probably the millionth time the price has shot up and corrected later on. This is not surprising anymore because this has always been the case with Bitcoin's price. When it has already created a new ATH, it will be due for correction sooner or later. And when it has already corrected, it will once again consolidate at a certain point, and then rise back once again, possibly creating a new ATH in the process. This is nothing new. Everybody should already be familiar with this.

See you $100,000 in a bit. 

Those candles doesnt really look bad and lets hope that it could really be able to hold or retain these levels for a while which is an indicative sign that we might really broke up this ceiling specially if its
been tested to have breakout for how many times. Actually these sideways movement is the best time for short-term traders like me to play up with those movements.
Not really a big swing but would really be considerable when making some scalping which is worth but somewhat bit risky.

The difference is that this is not what happened during this bull run, it is true that bitcoin went up very aggressively at the end of 2017 but this was not true during this bull market in which the growth was milder.

Now is it possible that we are going to go back to the 20k levels? Yes, but to me it seems to be too soon precisely because of your observation, the market has not gone up in a parabolic way yet which is why I think this is a correction and we are yet to see the true all time high of this bull run.

In before sub $20k.

it only take couple of Months before it comes true , even me did not believe what you are saying last year but now it looks like clearly indeed to happen and yes it already happened.
but at least you predicted 20k and not below that level right?  ;D

And even that, I don't think we consider "what goes up must come down" in a real scenario. Though I believe about every 4-year cycle, however, never I think we get back down like in the past year when we almost fell down on the ground and causing panic and a start of panic selling. It was indeed not what I see in the market, may Bitcoin will drop below $20k but still, I wasn't worried about the future of Bitcoin.

Now, as we can see that many investors are accumulating Bitcoin, we could think about a price increase than a continuous decline.

Predictions that are quite painful when now come true, I hope some people here no longer predict bitcoin prices will decline because maybe some of them will come true ;D, the current decline in bitcoin prices has really made many people including me lose half of the estimated money that I have, I hope that no more bad news hits bitcoin so maybe we will not cry tears of blood again :'(.

It's only painful of bitcoin will collapse and will not recover anymore. What we are witnessing now is just normal here in crypto, we've seen many times before that bitcoin collapse but the good news is that it always bounces back and recovers.

If you still remember the bull run happened in 2017 when bitcoin hit $20k, after that, the correction came and bitcoin dumped to sub $3k, that's a huge loss but those who panicked did not enjoy the bull period because bitcoin hit over $60k from $3k low in 2018 IIRC.

So the point is, if bitcoin hits $10k or $5k, I think we should consider stacking up bitcoin so we will be able to enjoy the next bull run, and I have a feeling that the next bull run will result to a new ATH of bitcoin reaching at least $100k.

It actually took over a year because he posted this on may 2021 and the price of btc hit 20k on June the current year but yeah many people including me didn't believe that it will happen, I think that's because we only like btc to increase and increase more but we don't like it when it is dumping so we easily disagree on the topics like this most especially when the price or the market is still in good condition.

The only one that can make us believe is seeing the actual thing that happened but here it is, it did finally happen. The OP might only predict 20k but he can now be able to predict below then it since it is now very possible for the price to nose dive at any moment.

Many new investors expect so, they are really preparing capital for Bitcoin's decline this time to $20k, they don't want to be disappointed like last year 2017.

I have to agree with your idea, the history of 2018, becomes a guide for us in the future, nothing is impossible, the unexpected happens.

and even Us who had been holding for long ? yet  had our funds ready for this dump and indeed , bitcoin now is really making its way to the lowest and this is an advantage we don't wanna miss.
and yes , I have bought recently lol.
actually same as what happened in 2014 , but of course I am not in the market those time because I entered 2 years after that great bull run of halving .

Well, it is the long term psychological support that's why when the bull run ends, it can be a strong support, and it is happening right now.

The drop of the peak to it's lowest drop in 2017-2018 was ~85% and if you will do it this time with the same percentage, it will go to $12,000 so for me if the psychological support $20,000 will be broke, I think we will see Bitcoin going as low as $12,000 because when the $20,000 support will break a huge selloff continues. Just a prediction.

I hope everybody is ready for what is happening right now. I'm not as ready as what others are, but I'm not panicking at all and instead of panicking, I'm slowly accumulating more for the future.

Well, it's happening guys. Didn't think we'd need to wait til Monday, but didn't think it'd also happen so early on Saturday, way to ruin our weekends huh ;)

Bitcoin now below the 2017 ATH is official. First time in history it's ever happened. Ethereum now below $1000 -- well below 2017 ATH.

We're going to get a lot of hurt, stay safe. What goes up must come down, we knew this was coming. Hold steadfast!

The reason why we are not really worried about bitcoin going out, is the fact that we have been here for a while now, we know what the markets are like. This is why we believe in it so much. Doesn't mean that we can't, but it also means that we need to make sure that it is not going to be causing us to panic at all. It will go down and up and down and up and down and up again and again which will just have to be how it is.

So, just focus on what we have right now, and it's down, buy as much as you can, watch it go up, then watch it go down again and so forth. We know this, we have seen it happen before, and that is why we are acting this way as well.

What I wanna do now? Is close my Eyes , stop looking at market stats, will use My other Mobile so i will prevent my self from checking my wallet (about how much is the value in dollar lol) and talk to my wife if I can use some of Her savings to add in our crypto holding, I will just take the advantage of the situation than feeling sorry and hurting.
though there are several thread i come across recently talking about Bitcoin falling down to 15k and below , i try preventing myself from believing lol.

Ha! I've done the closing eyes bit a long time ago. I mean, can't help but notice price whatever I do, since everything I do related to work is really just tied to this market. Couldn't avoid knowing the price even if I tried.

Just keep DCA as usual, and you'll be fine. 1 Bitcoin = 1 Bitcoin. And, unlike fiat, we know from history and from fundamentals that this is oversold, and when normalcy returns, we'll see healthier numbers.