Bitcoin Forum

Lots of people saying the bull market is over and we're in for a crypto winter. I think this is plainly obviously not true for numerous reasons.

How long until these people realize we're still in a bull market and market sentiment shifts from "oh no bear market" to "oh that was just a major correction"?

Probably if we hit another all time high after a 50% crash.

Currently, we are still not there yet, and unless we break $40k barrier and then goes to $50k, then we will see more threads about crypto winter and sell now from those no coiner or perma bull in this community. Although its better to ignore those members (I have 3 already in my list).

break $40k barrier: checked

break $50k and new ath on the way

As for me in my opinion, I can not say yet the bull market is not over for now, though not over because bitcoin will still get to $100000 one day, but I am thinking the market may not increase for now, it might be around $30000 to $40000 after the recent bear market that occured. But what I know is that no matter how long this last, the bull run is coming again, people will buy bitcoin and the price will increase. The bear market is even keeping the market healthy, making people to know that because of the fall they need to invest to gain, it is just a correction that will later lead to another all-time-high, all we need to just do is to be patient.

People don't usually admit that they were wrong.

Even serial killers or child rapists when they get caught. The rapist finds justification in that the child "wanted it", and the murderer, that the victim somehow "deserved it".

In the case you mention, I think that when it becomes clear that we are not in a bear market and the price continues to rise, many forget what they said.

It is seen that our brain has a tendency not to admit that we have wrong beliefs.

I see all this is just a cycle of time and there is no need to panic about the market crash, because all this is just a cycle of market price correction.

You just need to be patient and wait for the market prices to skyrocket again like costs and on the other hand, when winter arrives, that is the time for you to invest.

Not there yet, $40k seems to be rejected again.

We have to wait , but if we break $40k and sustained it, high possible that we can slice $50k again and then new all time high next month.

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For me, bull market is not over, maybe the bulls are re-assessing the situation before they pour their money again.

For perma-bear? I don't think they will admit it to themselves that bitcoin is so big now and successful and no price will change their notion about it, like the old and traditional fart Warren Buffett.

But for those who just love to spread FUD here, who knows, they could be secretly buying in the bear market and then creating useless thread to take about the death of bitcoin. So even if we have a new ATH or reach 6 digits at the end of the year, those people are not going to admit on their mistakes on public.

We are in situation that manipulations are happening in this space so don't be surprise if people will tell that the bull is over since the market drop happen for last couple of days is so heavy and now since the price is recovering maybe we can say that the bull continue and the short bear season happen is already done.

Bitcoin already back into the 40K but we can't predict that whether the bounce we see was the bullish trend or bearish trend since it can be only observed in the long term, in my opinion we are in the bull market for very long time so even if we entered into the bear market already then its not really big surprise.

Moron motherfucking bear bear bear bear asshole pieces of shit.

I would ban every one that says we are in a bear market for a week or so.

rant over.

Now that is how I feel when people say bear too soon.

Does it mean I am correct nope but I got it off my chest so hats off to the op.

Now are we in a bear market right now no but we are not exactly in a bull run.

We are in a valley to the left is a tall mountain called ATH to the right is a deep ravine called bear market.

As we walk in the valley for the next 30-60 days we will with slip down the ravine and be in that evil bear market or we will be over 70k with an ATH and back on the bull run.

Premature bear calling pisses me off bigly.  So fuck the bears.

FOMO and FUD control newbie emotions. they have weak hands unlike older investors who have diamond hands.
We cannot blame them because many of them came to the market for purely economic reasons. Therefore, the fluctuations seem very annoying and need people who understand the nature of the market and the type of risks associated with it.
I also believe that the algorithms in social networks affect decision-making, so it is better to stop following them when you want to make a decision to buy or sell.

We're not wrong though

The bull may not be volatile just this few months even when price movement looking like a recovery. The investors are still tasting and scared of going in but want to hodl and expect that they recover from the deep in losses they have in the portfolio. This may keep happening until the confidence returns back to the market. I'm expecting more bull towards the fourth quarter of the year and by then , another ATH may happen.

Probably about the same amount of time it took for all those crypto fund owners and master traders took to admit they were wrong when they said 2017 was just beginning and $100k was merely a future footnote en route to McAfee's $1 million grand ambition.

Oh yeah, most never came back to say they were wrong, until people said it for them and they admitted it.

Either way, I hope they don't suddenly keep quiet now, these bear market pundits. If they go away I can't keep accumulating =(

Well everyone has thier own speculation about the price and how far it could rise or fall. But the truth is everything is just an speculation and they cannot really predict the price or the market situation in the next days,weeks,years, or even a decades, So it really depends on us if we believe on thier thoughts I have my own sights and i believe that btc will reach 100k$ at the end of year 2021.

That is why I think there is a good chance that we do not end up with any FUD and that is why the price will not drop that much in the future. Check the recovery right now and you can see that people who are making a bad FUD right now all are people who do not end up being right they are going to end up being wrong, in fact they are already wrong.

This is why I am not worried, warren buffet can say whatever he wants, Elon Musk can say whatever he wants, people here can say whatever they want, there is really nothing that they can say whatever they want and it will not impact. People who "talk" do not matter because they do not really change anything, only people that change anything are people who uses their money and they are spending their money on buying bitcoin, that is what it all matters.

This is something that can be forcely changed up because people will eventually realize on things basing up on what they are currently seeing and i dont see any sense on why would forcibly making those

people look the other way around if we can just mind our own business and make our own step for us to make money.We do have different inputs and perceptive towards the market

and just let those people see on what they are currently experiencing because we would realized things up that we were wrong.

It will take some time for those people to realize their mistake, I really think the majority of the people that are thinking something like this are investors that are relatively new to the market and that have never experimented a drop like that before, even if they know intellectually that this has happened in the past it is completely different to see something like this on a chart and another to actually go through it, but once the market begins to recover and they begin to see things are not as bad as they thought they were then they will quickly change their mind.

Actually, these people are just playing their minds. They tried to manipulate their own and themselves believe that the market is already in the bear season.  Okay, let's say that these people are premature and they only realize once they become mature...that it takes so long, I don't know.

Until such a time that there is no criteria or chart to know if we are either in the bull or bear season some people might blindly see it and think in a different way. Have someone could show it? coz I'd never found it, maybe other members here have already seen it.

The past days bitcoin drop can be called a bear market season already but what good thing there is it happen on short time period. Maybe the amazing adoption happening this year help bitcoin to recover fast thats why we see it now slowly pumping up and maybe we will see it touched at $50k this year again.

Those who says we are in a bear market maybe the bitcoin price reach thier limit, i think they set a limit and when the price of bitcoin fall down and reach the limit price they will quickly say that bull market is ended, in my part i can say that the bull market is still up, and my limit price is below 20k$ if the price of bitcoin fall down below 20k$ that was the time that I will say that bear market is starting btc is now still 37k$ that was still high price so I don't think bear market is starting.

i don't know if we still can call this a major correction since it really makes the market full of blood within weeks and even until now there are some crypto currency that still can't recover..  For me it definitely turn into bearish because of some issues around the internet wherein even the bullish isn't done yet those fraud really influence most of the big hodler in the market in just a simple way. That's why bullish turn into a bearish real quick..

We already have a good example: people like @Ararbermas will not fully zoom out the price chart, hence won't see the big picture.

There are multiple types of people calling it bear market:
1. Most common should be those who bought at higher-than-current price. Those will call it bear market as long as they're not on solid profit (yeah, after a correction this may mean even more than just new ATH).
2. People who don't own bitcoin and want to look interested/interesting, although they don't know what they are talking about.
3. People that have interest in spreading "bear market" FUD.
4. Certain day traders who will preach "bear market" and "bull market" in contradiction to reality in an attempt to get their trading bots earn a couple of extra cents.
5. Pessimistic newbies that got scared by the FUD and the bigger-than-expected price movements.

Keep in mind also that the optimists will say that Bitcoin is on a bull market from the moment its price charts exist.  ;)
All in all, a certain (downside) change in the price, depending how big it is, how long it takes and who reads it, will be seen as correction by some and bear market by others. I've got used to that and you should too.

I don't think we are going to see those people admit their mistakes, remember that people have an ego and if they feel like someone is threatening it, they will defend it at all cost even if they become irrational doing so.

Given this is from the person who said we were never going below $50k again ...  ??? ... I think more interesting to ask when are we “no longer in a bull market?”  It has been six weeks since the high, if the next ATH is, say, 6 months away is that still a bull market?  Or is it actually the next bull market?

And more to the point does it matter anyway?

It is normal to see people say that we are in a bear market because we see bitcoin price drops too deep, and they think that bitcoin can't increase to the last high price at $64k. Perhaps, they desperate because of losing their money from the bitcoin investment, so they say that the bull market is ending and change into the bear market.

Hopefully, this situation will change soon, and the bitcoin price can increase to the high price and make a new ATH. I agree that the $20k will be the sign of the bear market because that is the last ATH in a few years ago, so if the price does not drop to that price, we are still bullish.

Haha right OP most holders are shakin out in the last 2 weeks I strongly believe that we are not in top yet of the bull market we are still in uptrend those retail investors who sold their btc into whales will buyback again at high price for sure.   

If they look at price graphs from the beginning in 2010 they can realise that we are always in bull market from the starting.But what can we accept from immature market traders who just shift their sentiments from one to another and keep on speculating wrong prices prediction.Every market has bear and bull so is the case with cryptos but you need to more calm in this crypto world.Another ATH is going to be achieved this year crossing $64k mark also and then they will be like we missed investing at $40k or even lower.

I really think that many people do not even know what a bear market is, a drop in the price no matter how big cannot be considered to be a bear market, a bear market means a negative tendency, with the keyword here being tendency, we need to see several months of downward movement before we can even say this is a bear market, for all what we know this could have been just a heavy correction and if the price goes up once again during the next weeks then any chances this was a bear market will evaporate at that moment.

Well in fact the bear market term is borrowed from stock market however crypto currency has its own rules and I personally don't know what defines a bear market in crypto.  What I do know though that if you look to the chart of bitcoin (and almost all other altcoins have skyrocketed) the price has gone from 10K to 50K between September 2020 and April 2021 this is the biggest increase so far by price volume. Which means that if this correction did not happen the whole crypto market could have crashed very violently. This correction was a bit late in my view and this could be explained by the euphoria around crypto. Now to get the price going up again we do need an important demand, good news  from crypto projects and money pouring in by investors. This will happen but it will take time. I hate feeling the gamble sensation when investing... So far what is happening is logic so let it be.  

Monthly chart says its a bull trend but if you’re going to look at the price, you should think again because its starting to go down. Its ok to see this as a bear trend, is just that we are open for every possibilities and we all know the bear trend is inevitable, and many will surely be trap on top  again, time can tell.

In practice, I don't see much difference between a deep and long correction and a bear market. The fall in the price of bitcoin from $ 60,000 to $ 30,000 is very impressive, especially since two weeks have passed since such a drop, and the price of bitcoin is now still at the level of $ 35,000. If the price of bitcoin does not recover in the next few weeks, then most likely this will not happen until the fall. I think that in this case, the next wave of cryptocurrency price growth can already be expected in the fall, from about October. How this period can be called - a deep correction or a bear market, does not matter much anymore.

Both scenario could play out but even if bitcoin able to climb up to $55K after the dump or based on your post it's a "major correction" then it's already enough to make those people admit they were wrong after all hitting that amount isn't some measly achievement
but trust me, they keep saying we're in a bear market for reasons and one of them is to accumulate in the very bottom of the dip, I mean what else right? they keep making statement like that because they are in cut loss position and trying to recover their money by scalping and buyback.

After seeing bitcoin ATH hitting the $ 60k range, and making the altcoin price also go up so high, then the price suddenly dropping by almost% 50 the current price, I think it's natural for people to think that we are in a bear market. Well, that's if people look at the high prices. although our situation is different when the bitcoin price is still in early 2020 or 2021, but I think people tend to think this is a bear market after seeing very high prices. well, they will probably continue to think of a bear market if they see the prices continue to fall.

OP, they were right. It was a “bear market”, but fast forwarded to 10x. In a normal state of the market, if Bitcoin fell from $60,000 to $30,000 from April this year to April next year, that would have been one year of bear market cycle. Thanks to Elon Musk FUD and everyone who panic sold, they made it 10x faster.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E2M8gccXsAMaMhB?format=jpg&name=900x900

Back to the mean. Buy the dip, and HODL.

People have different definitions of bullish and bearish market, and they also have their own analysis and reference/market cycle to identify in what market we are in. But most of the time these people who call the market "bearish" everytime the price declines are nothing but here to spread a FUD to take advantage of the weak hands, and accumulate at the dip.
There were also those who back their words up with some reasonable explanations why they come up to such bearish market predictions.
Well, I myself as well believe that Bitcoin is just having it's major correction.

I honestly think that both cases are pretty much equally likely.

The market sentiment has shifted to bearish whether you want to admit it or not. Depending on whether the $30k support or the $40k resistance gets breached first, the price action can vary significantly.

We simply don't know how the market is going to pan out in periods of extreme volatility like these. The level of FOMO but also fundamental growth are both in uncharted territory, and anyone who claims that they can predict the future is likely speaking out of their arse.

Market sentiment for short - medium term might be bearish, but long term it’s still bullish. Zoom out and check that Bitcoin’s price has never crashed below, and stayed below the 200-weekly SMA/EMA. If the price goes down near it, it has been a golden opportunity to buy more and HODL. Will that change in the future? Maybe, but I believe that probability for now is low.

Yeah, but still early to conclude that we are still in the bearish cycle, the coin can still be flipped in the next quarter and see a bullish cycle again. $30k-$40k for now, still high from the our last bullish cycle in 2017.

We will forget about Elon Musk in the next 6 months for sure, his FUD will not be as effective as what we are, he could have some anti-bitcoin arguments, but for sure majority of investors are getting tired of him toying and creating a lot of FUD.

Instead of going $60k to $30k over a year, we did it in a week. And now the never ending, years long bear market bleed out will take us below $10k.

Their ego are too big to let a simple admittance of defeat slide their mouths. Plus, I think it's too early to call the market has officially exited the bear market, maybe we can let it marinate for a while and see what happens to the market next.

It's not ego. It's certainty from of a perfect mathematical model.

The pattern is the same as in 2017, the correction was 50% and then increased to more than 200% at the end of 2017,
and made Bitcoin hype, yes many bought it at that time including me, and until now I still hold Bitcoin, because I believe Bitcoin can reach $100000 in future/
collect Bitcoin before Bitcoin price gets more expensive  ;D

The pattern is also the same as at the start of 2018, when it corrected more than 50% and then decreased steadily for the next 2 years.

So there are two potential scenarios:
1) We're in a mid-cycle correction (similar to what you mentioned)
2) We're at the start of a longer term bear market (the scenario I mentioned)

At the moment, it's not clear which scenario will play out, but most of the technical indicators are pointing to the 2nd scenario which is why the "we're in a bear market" people are pointing out the possibility.

The people who are using a DCA strategy don't care which scenario will play out because their investment strategy will stay the same, but the people who try to time the market are considering these two scenarios closely as it will determine their next move.

Whether Bitcoin is considered "expensive" now depends on your time frame.