Bitcoin Forum

for those under a rock who don't know there is a soft fork coming to bitcoin to activate Taproot and improve bitcoin scripts (smart contracts) and privacy and also scaling.
the signalling was started last month and surprising enough in this period almost all miners are signalling for Taproot activation already (370 out of 378 according to taproot.watch website which is 97.88%).

if this continues (which it most probably will) Taproot is locked-in in about 11 days.

i have a good feeling that the timing is also perfect because the accumulation after this panic sell is going to be over by that time and the FOMO can start.
2 weeks from now we could be sitting at $70k.

$70,000 in 2 weeks?

I dunno about that but I sure hope so. We could really do with some positive news to start us pumping again. The last couple or weeks have sucked man.

Indeed, Taproot lock in should happen in less than 2 weeks. And indeed, at the current state of the market, it could be just the news we need to make it move in the right direction.
On the other hand, I fear that it might just not be enough, especially as Taproot will become active only in... November.
So as much as I'd love to see you're right, I'd love to see some other good news too and maybe together they'll give the market the kick it needs.

yeah but being locked-in means there is no longer a way back and it will activate no matter what because it will be part of the consensus rules and is going to be enforced by all the bitcoin nodes and miners that have upgraded and accepted the fork.
i've seen the market get excited for things that were far less significant and not as interesting.

Bitcoiners are really happy to see those green blocks, but MARA pool isn’t happy with taproot as 9 blocks aren't provided signal bit, 3 out of those 9 were from MARA pool and 2 blocks from ark pool. Though those pools are providing signal bit on other blocks which is confirmed by those pools, but it's concerning everyone. Lets see they'll be doing this or not as many users already made memes on it. TBH, it'll sure to create fomo and just wait for the $42k level to be crossed and it'll gear up.  8)

That would be amazing to see it goes $70k within 2 weeks. It's like a hit to those all of the FUD spreaders that has been too bearish already for bitcoin when they've started to see it plummets.

I hope that we really see some positive reaction when it comes.

I'm pretty sure that Taproot has been priced-in for a long time, it was always clear that it will get accepted by miners, there wasn't any opposition to it.


Anything can happen with Bitcoin, but for now such probability seems extremely low. The general sentiment is leaning towards bearish and Bitcoin failed to break past $40k and now $38k resistances. This "dip" is not being bought very actively.

There will be no taproom lock-in FOMO. Global markets have basically moved on from bitcoin because of its death.

Because of taproot lock-in only? No way!
We're already above the 90% levels and everyone who gives a damn about the technicalities knows it will happen, the masses don't even know what taproot is, for them Kim K. wearing a BTC necklace will be more bullish.

I've started to see this trend of improvements to the coins and even clear business acceptance in case of altcoins are not moving the market even one bit, probably there needs to be something bigger, something official, I sincerely don't see a way of breaking this trend with internal developments only. And besides, the improvements will mainly come for usage, and the new wave of investors are not really looking at BTC from the usage point of view.


 

I agree here, not everyone in this community knows about Taproot, so I doubt that there will be FOMO in the next coming weeks. Majority of the members seldom visited Development & Technical Discussion boards.

FOMO usually comes from big news and unlike altcoins, wherein a simply tweet from devs or at least a supposedly new version or iteration is coming, will really push the price of that coin to the next level, I doubt that it will have the same impact in bitcoin about Taproot or any similar releases in the future.

it doesn't matter because there is always one pool (sometimes more) that aren't signalling for a fork. it happened in all previous forks but the majority always pushes forward.
in this case we have ALL pools except one signalling so technically that should be 99% while we only need 90% to activate.

no not just because of taproot lock-in just as the drop wasn't just because of Elon Musk tweet. it is a push in the right direction. price wasn't able to surpass $70k so it dropped below $60k then the FUD began and pushed it in downward direction.
right now price wasn't able to go below $30k so it went back up. a small push past certain level and it will reach $70k in a very short time.

lest we forget how 2017 was.

Unless you're one of those who actually sided with the likes of Snowden who thought taproot was a bad thing for Bitcoin privacy -- in which case this would be a bad thing. Not that speculators care either way. Indeed, cue 2017 reminiscing when big blockers were saying Segwit was a bad thing too -- speculators, for all they're worth, will side with the "right" chain and that, for all purposes, is the majority.

Now that coincides with Marathon's abandonment of Bitcoin block censorship, so yeah, more points of FUD taken down. Nice.

But you're forgetting that it was the Tesla announcement that pushed the price to 60k, remember how we were on 30k before the announcement, and then it skyrocketed? Making Musk guilty of the price down because of FUD but at the same time ignoring he is also related to the HYPE caused there doesn't make an accurate picture.

Also, I'm turning a bit more bearish by the day, and one of the cause is indeed FUD, but because of the intensity members and even veteran members resort to blaming it, when I see tens of topics about combating FUD, dismissing FUD, everything is FUD I know there is tension even here, and it makes me worry. You can't blame all the crash on musk and China news, the cash flow has stopped even in altcoins, even in ICOs, NFT is turning into a cesspool, investors are way too cautious to pour in more money.

I don't see a sudden pump happening, and I think if we see one it's going to be short-lived, my bet is on a long very long and painful summer.

and remember how we were $20k before before the announcement! before that $10k, ... bitcoin price isn't rising all these years because some schmuck made an announcement :P
as i said the news can only give bitcoin a little push that it needs to speed up reaching a certain price. for example if Tesla announcement made price reach $60k in 1 month without it price would have reached $60k regardless but it would have take 1.5 or 2 months.

that may be but there still isn't any explanation for the huge buy volume that takes place every day. if people were indeed this scared they wouldn't have been buying this much bitcoin.

Or selling volume as for each bought bitcoin there is one sold.

And trading volume is going down, those days were the worst in the last months, (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data/usd#panel),  all this year there have been 5 days with lower than 40B in volume, one was January the 2nd one May 3rd and the others three were two days ago, yesterday and today. So, I'm not sure where you see that unstoppable buying power.

I'll stick to being cautious about it, and as you can see everyone is from trading to moving coins, even the mempool just got emptied, not really signs of a bull run.


Schmuck or no schmuck one tweet from him was enough and we're talking about going back above 40k as a positive!

that's because all this year we never had a "calm" market where we could consider an accumulation phase. there was only big rises and big falls for the past 5 months. obviously the volume increases a lot during high volatility times.
in other words you are comparing apples and oranges.

if you want to compare then find another accumulation phase and compare the volumes then. for example the first half of December 2020 is a good example. price is stable and an accumulation is going on and volume is barely reaching $20 billion.
in comparison the volume over the past week of accumulation is between $33 to $48 billion and is starting to increase again.

I'm comparing red apples and green apples actually!  ;D


In December we were not trading at 10k after having November at 20k it was a flat market and we were at 20 billion a day for half a year at least since last June, not decreasing for two consecutive months.

Sorry but at this point, I'm not getting anymore, you see tremendous buying power and accumulation in the lowest volume in months combined with a declining price! Let's leave it like that, you're bullish and you see an uptrend I'm completely bearish and I'm seeing a repeat of the last summer with moderate spikes now and then.

If you're right and I'm wrong is g$$d for me too, if I'm right at least once I'm getting a prediction so for me is a win-win no matter what.

Imho the fact that mempool is basically empty would tell that everybody is waiting for something. The charts tell that is should be "something" upwards, with or without Taproot. That may start earlier than the ending of current difficulty period and then the Taproot lock in may fuel it even more or not matter at all (or even get considered as "already accounted for").

Of course, this is all speculation and the ideas come and go as fast as the market changes.


Edit: I also agree that "that tweet" should have not been so "powerful" and something else (too) was the cause...

I don’t believe Taproot can have any serious impact on price, yet it’s one technical thing that the mainstream media can even present in a way that creates FOMO. I don't want to downplay this upgrade, but SegWit was far more significant, and as far as I can remember, it didn't result in much media attention - they're only interested in the price.

When it comes to price, I don't know if you are referring to the thread from @rdbase (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5339703.0), but those who announced that they will bring down the price, at the end of their statement say that after that the price will go to $70k very fast.

https://i.imgur.com/g63JM4v.jpg
Source (https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/ng9k3a/insider_of_large_chinese_firm_predicted_bitcoins/)

I confess that I didn't know about this news, these days I'm not following the news about cryptocurrencies as often as in the past and the reason is: fear. yes I'm afraid to go to some news site often and hear that person X tweeted Z and the price will go down or read some nasty price forecast


I bought at $33000, but I sold it as soon as I saw the price touch $39,000 and I'm waiting to see the direction of the market


to be honest, first we have to be above $42000 and then think about $70,000, so far there is still the danger of the price falling below $34000 and then who knows what kind of disaster will await us if the price drops below $30,000?

That can't be denied as most of the pools are providing signal bits for every confirmation blocks. Lets just hope, it'll be done soon as market is recovering from correction.  ;D

Indeed, market always works like this. First whales or millionaires will manipulate this market to accumulate more. When they're finished with accumulating , more and more good news will circulate to create fomo for pumping bitcoin into another high level. Samething is going on and it's sure that fomo will start soon.

That's right, bitcoin needs to hit $42k for another rally. Though all those resistence are now becoming support level for bitcoin which was pushing bitcoin downwards. TBH, bitcoin will surge into previous position if it's able to break the resistance of $42k as 200 MA is on the level.

no. i didn't even know about that. the $70k price is just the next natural step that bitcoin can take. it was the price it was trying to reach before the FUD began.
there is also a massive amount of  cash waiting on the sidelines to jump back in. most of it is the money that exited the market, not just bitcoin but all the shitcoins that have been pumped during the past couple of months and made traders a ton of money.
a positive signal will ignite a big rise.

I didn't hear about this, this looks like a good amount of improvement on bitcoin when I research it but there is not a wide spread knowledge about this in the crypto world, which means that there is a chance it may not really getting the attention it deserves. I hope that this gets more popular over time because these type of things do increase the bitcoin usability and unfortunately since bitcoin is a decentralized project there is no marketing department for it to get these things out there to be known by people and get hyped by it so it gets buried under the pile of news we get every day.

Even as a person who likes to read about bitcoin every single day it is the first time I am hearing about it which means it is not a wide spread known thing, if I do not hear about it, thing about how many people haven't heard about it as well.

I understand that most of those who have invested in BTC for the sake of profit (mostly in the short term) need to look at things in a very narrow range - but to me as a long term holder the next interest step is only at $100k - and not because it's my exit point, but that means people value BTC twice as much as when it was only worth $50k.

As for the continuation of the bull run, I think it's inevitable - and it could very likely happen in Q4, because I think a lot of people in the Northern Hemisphere will use this summer for travel after the pandemic subsided a bit. Of course, there is always money waiting to be invested in something, and now it is only a matter of time before investors assess that it is the right time.

this is not yet the FOMO we had in mind which may be because of the fear that resides in the market for now.
but as the Taproot locked in status news spread the price started rising up slowly and after more than a month of dumping reached $40k again. so far we have been able to hit $40500 and volume is starting to increase with the price too.
transaction fees took a big jump to 44 MB mempool and 24 satoshi/byte too.

if this direction is continued we can slowly see the FOMO begin too. we definitely have all the signs.

Common, you know too well this has nothing to do with taproot
The past gains were made on the news from Salvador and the current pump like it or not was caused by a single tweet from Musk, one look at the graphs and it's clear as the blue sky
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1404132183254523905

https://i.imgur.com/r67K3Z7.png

You can hate the man for what he does but still, denying his influence makes no sense.
I'm pretty sure that even the Vulcano mining news, which if we start analyzing was also a lot of hype as from digging a well that started two years ago to build the plant and to use it it's a long way had far more impact than taproot, people love news like this and tweets, things that are simple. Try to explain in one tweet what taproot is to the average joe, or forget tweet, try doing it here where still a lot of users think that if you add more miners more transactions can be processed a day.

he made the tweet AFTER the rise started. shortly after but still after it.
also you can't possibly think that him saying a big "maybe" in addition to continuing his FUD about the bitcoin energy consumption and pollution (both of which are also present in that tweet and you are ignoring them)  and saying Tesla has sold bitcoin is the reason for this rise!!!

if anything bitcoin is rising despite Elon's FUD.

this didn't work out the way i expected it to and my initial speculation about a FOMO after Taproot activation as we now know was wrong. there was only a small FOMO (if we can call it that) which couldn't last long enough to break the resistance and head for $70k.

watching things closely to see if next attempt succeeds.

As a veteran here you should have known better than anyone to not start with such predictions over a small interval, the moment you say one week , two weeks, this month is like invoking a god of misfortune that would make sure it won't happen.

And btw, one day after you posted that about Elon not mattering I did a search here, both Elon and Musk were mentioned over 180 times, taproot 12, and this is bitcointalk, not the world, but the slide that happened after clearly shows what's mattering to the masses, nobody cares about increased efficiency in CPU power of 10%, but RGB led fans...wow!  At this point, I doubt that even if we had taproot activation happening next month it wouldn't change a thing, we need something shiny and tweetable or we're heading for a bear season.

It is really going to be marvelous to see this done, I do know enough about it to participate right away, but I know that when something big happens and people are happy about it that usually means higher price on bitcoin and I haven't seen people this excited about something in crypto since the halving.

Let's hope that this new taproot thing could actually make people hyped about bitcoin once again, it is not something talked about here a lot, I hope that it is not an indication that only a bunch of people who are aware of it got happy and there are tons who do not even know this exists, but even if that is the case all we have to do is let it known that something improved on bitcoin and that's fine. Obviously there is still time, locked-in is not enough, we need to see impacts of it, remember even during halving we were at around 10k whereas we peaked on 64k at April or something, so it may take some time.

Yes, there was not enough push because of the Taproot lock so no FOMO.

I guess the market is really on a trading sideways, lots of investors are just waiting, and trying to time the market. $40k right now is the biggest resistance, as we have been attempting to break it several times but with no avail. I wonder though what kind of FOMO will need to surface to go and reach another all time high of around $70k this year?

I think there needs to be a new trend that appears to be made into FOMO, let's see that DeFi is one of them which this year is experiencing an increase and even how many percent is growing due to this trend, one day there will definitely be a new trend that we don't know and this will be The secret to breaking bitcoin prices hit records again.
But we're enjoying a sideway phase and can't determine if this year bitcoin can hit a new ATH again like you mentioned $70k.