Bitcoin Forum

Many posts lately claim that this cycle is looking more like 2013 than 2017 bullrun if we take into account what patterns is price following with some serious price dips esp. 60% in april 2013 compared to this one 50%. then we remember price started to climb from $140. this time we were at 30K. I believe we will see parabolic price move till the end of year instead of crypto winter following after 60K ATH was reached. Price didn't fall below 30K but is stable around 35-36K. History shows big move ahead is probable.

When we look at the crypto market in general, we can see that it has shown similar movements for many years. But this time big companies got involved. We may see a different movement.

if you believe that it is like that year why not take advantage of the circumstances. from the beginning of this decline, I have convinced myself and consider this a discount so that I can increase my assets here. but what happens to some people is the opposite.
I don't know what caused a lot of people to panic so much that they sold all their assets even though it caused a loss and what's worse is that many people are stressed and some have even committed suicide with the decline that has occurred in recent weeks.
even though if we reflect on the years 2013 & 2017 they should consider this a blessing and not be used as a material to worry about.
Calm down, friends, stay relaxed and don't panic because every drop will definitely get a crazy increase.
all we need to do right now is wait and hope the hike will come soon

I don't understand what you mean by saying that the crypto market shows the same movement for years?
please explain in more detail because according to my vision the crypto market movement is definitely undergoing changes and will not be the same for years. other than that what is discussed here is what happens to bitcoin not to all coins in crypto.
I need advice because I do not understand what you are trying to convey

Here’s hoping, the second big pump of 2013 was face-melting. I’m feeling a bit underwhelmed about the current price action so threads like this give me hope that the bull run still has life in it. We really need to get over 40k & stay there soon.

Possible but not guaranteed and this had been always like this.We can look back in the past but doesnt mean that it would happen in the future.When it comes to patterns then
we can see lot and make out presumptions and it isnt bad to view that it is really just the same on whats currently happening but we should consider lots of factors
which will really be a big thing for those things on not to happen again. Ex. adoption rate and recognition and with this alone we can really tell that we cant
see those things into those old days which would really be a big factor.

In these or those graphs, you can always find coincidences, therefore, they are called so for ease of understanding. Bulls, bears ... I don't think it is correct to compare these moments, since the number of players on the exchange, owners of bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies has changed dramatically since then. Therefore, even superficially similar graphics paint completely different pictures. In addition, we have updated the absolute maximum for the bitcoin price this year, which already favorably distinguishes the situation from past experience.

From the title alone, I thought this was a post about financial markets and the economy resembling Obama's 2nd term in 2013 more than Trump's sole term in 2017. OP's post may not be about that topic. But the united states is returning to the financial and economic policies it had under Obama. Corporate taxes are being hiked. Federal spending is way up with stimulus and lockdowns. All of which is a throwback to 2013 era policy.

Perhaps on some level, all of these recent policy changes which occurred after Joe Biden was sworn in. Which mirror the 2013 to 2016 era. Are exhibiting similar trends in the crypto space.

Trump was relatively crypto agnostic as far as I can remember. There were no big or sweeping changes under his administration.

It might happen or might not, there's no guarantee for this speculation.  There's plenty of speculations in the Speculation board regarding this matter but all of them will remain speculating using the historical performance of Bitcoin price movement.  Well possible the history repeats itself as we look at there's the same pattern.

IMO, there's a possible bullish trend next for this dip sharp corrections happened, big institutional investors start getting interested in Bitcoin adoption and there are big events that will happen just like the Bitcoin taproot upgrade with the support with almost all Bitcoin miners.  All of these will probably give better shots soon and we might not be struggling at the price of $30k. range.

Probably want the OP meant is that there is a lot of similarities:

2013 - SMA was tested on April 15
2021 - SMA was also tested around this time

2013 - $270 top to $65 76% correction
2021 - $64k top to 32k-$34k more than 50% correction

2013 - after that huge correction, $65 to $1200 in November again of 1800%
2021 - after a huge correction to low $30k, ????, you guys fill in the blanks.

take note though that I don't see a 1800% gain in November or December 2021, exponential growth will slow down.

I agree with you.....
it seems that the difference in market conditions is very much compared to the previous year, although some bull&run movements seem to have similarities with the previous year but some other reason is that nowadays newcomers are very different they are smarter so the market correction this year may only be around 40-50%

It is what most of those analyses that I've seen says. 2020 = 2016 and 2021 = 2017 and I agree that we shall see that parabolic move at the end of the year or if not, by the start of Q4. If that type of analysis has been compared to the past, we shall really see the history might repeat itself very soon. That's why if you're very positive with that comparison whether or not at this season, you should be accumulating when the correction has already occurred. We're not going to be in the bull run forever but we're not also going to stay in the bearish sentiment forever. It's just giving and take, taking positions changing one after another.

We really can't compare the state and the price that bitcoin is at today to the way things happened 7 years ago, the bitcoin now has more market cap has gain more popularty and thus there are a lot more things and events that effect the price, the current price drop comes from one china banning bitcoin mining and mjor companies like tesla investing and than pulling out from using bitcoin which built it up and cause its price to go up to 60k and than drop it down when they decided to stop.

in 2013 we didn't have paypal accepting bitcoin, in 2013 we didn't have elon musk accepting or talking about bitcoin, I think that if the price dropped a lot it was due to comments by elon musk and china's measures and how many people had big profits it was a perfect opportunity to make sales and take profits and then buy when the price drops a lot and now the price is recovering, although some people are coming with paranoia that the price could fall below $20,000, something that I consider an extreme exaggeration. there is no way to compare 2013 and 2017 with 2021. the realities are very different although the price has increased and dropped a lot

Well, it is something that was announced, although speculation rambles in its accuracy, the bands, percentages, averages are always there to achieve the projections, then the historical ones confirm them.

The year 2021 is still halfway through the calendar and many things are yet to happen, these new situations will mark new historical references that did not exist, the reason is very simple, there are new bitcoin investors, traders (Hodlers-influencers-etc) and others to come that will influence volatility of bitcoin.

Even PlanB of S2F is also seeing similar pattern this year to 2013. That's one model who has been making some noise because of its 'almost accurate' prediction of the price movement. But then again, it's just a model and anyone can find a flaw on it. But for bitcoin's maximalist, they still holds those similarities and the model shows a $218,000 predicted basing on the 2013 and 2021 price movement similarities so far.

But still a long way to go though, we have six months for a final push and see if this predictions are going to be a hit or miss.

Well, history had proven to be repeating itself over and over, so no matter how long we wait it's going to happen.  The accumulation period probably will take longer but this is going to make the price way more than $65k once the bulls are back. The traders who sold at ATH know where and when to put their money back to crypto, they are not going to spend it to buy Lambo or Tesla in this economy, they are going to invest.

everyone started to panic, some even suffered heavy losses, with prices falling badly, elo n musk tweets, tesla doesn't accept bitcoins, china banned bitcoin mining, iran also banned bitcoin mining, made some people start panicking, and started selling their valuable assets, and suffer great losses,

When you want to compare trends you shouldn't just compare using a couple of weeks, you should instead compare the entire trend. This trend we have right now is the 4th year of the 4 year cycle that started from 2018 and 3/4 of the cycle has been very similar to the first 3 years of the 2017 cycle that started from 2014.
In other words 2021 looks more like 2017 than you realize because you are too zoomed in.
This is also why I have been saying price will reach $500k at the end of this cycle.

It has the same pattern but there are plenty of factors where they will differ in terms of things that will affect its price.

Hoping that we really see a different move from the market because many people panicking right now even if it is not necessary.

If that's the case then we should wait for the price to have bull run again even if it take some time.

Perhaps that is right, but I do not think that is almost the same because the situation is now different from in 2013. I think the bull run still happens to the market, but we see now that the market is down and makes a correction. But if we compare to 2013, the price now is not going down reach $20k, and if the price really down to that price, we can't do anything except follow it. But all in all, I think the crypto market still at the bull market, and we need to have patience and to wait for the crypto market to recover. Besides that, we have more times to see the crypto market will increase later.

less companies involved in 2013 but its surprising that the dip is more compare to the dip that happen last time or maybe most companies are not selling but if they sell , the market will be in great danger .
 the involvement of big company is both a blessing and a curse but if the history really repeats then we are safe now  .
the stability of the price is a sign that it wont go down anymore but it can only recover and rise until the year ends .

I think it's correct and we're entered the bearish market. The price dropped very significantly, and there are no signs of recovery for now. I hope there won't be additional tought events, pushing the price lower than $30k or something, and I'll be generally happy if the price simply stays above $30k as it seems to be doing now. People get excited and buy too much out of fear of missing out, and then they start backing off because something cannot become so much more valuable over such a short period of time without significant reasons like new technical developments.

May be that is true and may be it isn't but the charts show that bitcoin is ready for pumping up again.
According to my analysis if bitcoin breaks $38300 then it will soon cross $42k and might settle down somewhere above that price.
Currently BTC is at $38k and I believe in next one or two days we might see some green gains in bitcoin.  :)
If it follows the 2013 pattern then may be this might be the beginning of the pump we all are waiting for.

If it's considered as 2013 cycle, then isn't it a good thing? As far as i remembered, a lot of people wanted to go back to the past where the price is still low, or regret the fact that they didn't buy sooner. So while the price is low again now, shouldn't we make the right decision this time?
I guess market will always be repetitive, it will always be up and down, since it's a cycle. We just need to be patient and wait until it reaches the top again, so that we won't regret doing the same mistake twice. Keep believeing and keep holding.

We have nothing but history alone to rely on and I'm guessing this is also not a financial advice.

Aren't we rushing the climb of Bitcoin value just because we already saw a $60k price?
From 9k last year June 2020 to $36k now, that's a lot of money added if you consider the pandemic (Covid-19), economic problems and people losing their jobs.
I say this is all good. Really good. If this stays until the end of the year then we could also conclude we have a new bottom and that is a crazy price if you are an average person.

You are looking for patterns that can't exist like that. I have experienced all three phases intensively and I can say that the situation in 2013 was not comparable to the situation in 2017 and certainly not comparable to 2021. The basic conditions in all three phases were completely different.

Well, who cares which pattern it replicates.  What important is for Bitcoin to recover its price after this dip.  I highly believe that there will be another huge rally for Bitcoin before the end of the year.  This dip had enabled many to buy Bitcoin at a huge discount especially those who we are referring to as whales.  Once their stash is filled up, then we can see a massive increase in price again before we enter another Bear Market.  These "whales" need to unload at a profit before they let the market enter the bear season.  So I think Bitcoin will surge one more time.

it is undeniable that 2021 is worse than 2013 and 2017, but in my opinion this is the development of the times, we can't compare it with that year, because in that year not many people studied bitcoin, now times have changed, it can even be said that almost 50% of people already using bitcoin, so I think it's natural, all of that happened..

It is simple. Don't overcomplicate it that price will dip at some point. Whales dumping and taking the opportunity to get the coins of those weak hands. The usual bear and bull trend. Nothing much more.

Could be also that what happened in 2019 where BTC fell to <3k. :)
It was heck a real test for weak hodlers.
Btw, June 2021 Special coming soon? :D

You're right about the cycle repeating itself. the market goes up and down and the same cycle is possible.
a market crash like today is an excellent opportunity to get into bitcoin or any other altcoin. Because the increase is coming soon.
having some reserve funds is very important for the current bearish situation.
the possibility of bitcoin prices reaching $100k it could happen, nothing is impossible in the world of cryptocurrency, everything can happen quickly. it's only a matter of time.

Charts may look more similar to 2013, but that's it.   In 2013 blockspace wasn't a major issue.  Nobody expected the price to rise.  Investment by those using the Greater Fool Theory was non-existent.  Community projects were flourishing. 

The community today and the Bitcoin experience when using the protocol is much different from 2013.  Everyone is expecting price increases now, community projects are few and far between, there's tons of altcoin competition, etc...  We are seeing 2017 repeated, only this time the big funds want to leave the little guys holding the bag so we'll see more mainstream investment through Wall Street Funds where they can take your money, charge you for holding your crypto, then stack and watch their management fees rise.

History always tend to repeat itself. At first I was thinking that the current market cycle would flourish like that of 2017 bull season but my opinion has changed like yours as I've watched keenly of all that has happened in the market since bitcoin touched the all time high price before going down for a not so lengthy price correction. But it is different this time in the sense that even we have mainstream and institutional investors buying at current market prices whenever they're ready to do so. We still need sometime in order to finally which histories is going to be repeated.

I scattered my oracle bones around a minute ago and you know what? They say the same exact thing!

Jokes aside, this 30k range stability does feel very reassuring.

Total agree even tho tesla doesn't accept bitcoin right now which is sad and make btc hard correction, but company like micro strategy keep investing in it  :D paypal and venmo have recent good news master card and visa also do the same
citi bank and other bank start implemented blockchain system and maybe stablecoin backed government happen in next couple year

Sometimes everything can be said it same coincidence as the previous year, but after all we do not know for sure the development of bitcoin in today's society, and many new people are also familiar with bitcoin. Not only that, of course it will be influenced by various things that can affect it, I personally think it will be more powerful than previous years related to the progress of the financial world, especially in terms of alternatives.
Just think positive, I'm sure it was more shining.