Bitcoin Forum

My prediction of the chances that bitcoin price will hit a million dollars by the end of:

2025 - 20% probability
2026 - 40% probability
2027 - 60% probability
2028 - 80% probability
2029 - 99.9% probability.

Just a theory. No way to actually ever verify it.

I believe one day Bitcoin price will rise over $1 million because it is a deflationary currency, but this may take time, even with what I think, I do not think Bitcoin price will get to $1 million any time soon even as 2029, I believe you are also relating it to Bitcoin halving, that Bitcoin will halve 2 times before 2029 and people will fomo and buy Bitcoin so they can gain. There is nothing impossible, but as the price of bitcoin will be increasing, the volatility will be drastically reducing.

I made a topic in the price in which is all about Bitcoin price valuation and halving (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5232054.msg54008321#msg54008321), from it, you will realize how the price increase of Bitcoin after halving has been, it is redeucing drastically, but yet an opportunity for people to invest.

First halving, 2012
Initial price: $11
Highest prices:  around 1100
That means it increased 100x


Second halving, 2016
Initial price: around and below $700
Highest price: all time all of $19,665.36
That means it increased over 33x

I remembered Bitcoin price has been increasing drastically last year, 2020 before halving, but the price before having was around $8800, Bitcoin increased in price to $63126 in 2021.

Third halving, 2020
Initial price: $8800
Highest prices so far: around $63126
That means it increased 7.17x

This may not be true, but if the price volatility after halving is decreasing, $1 million price may not be possible by 2029, but the price of bitcoin will still increase though.

We have nothing to do but establishing some theories about this. I also think that Bitcoin price will reach one million dollars in the next 10 years. Maybe it's not so soon but it will happen I believe.

The price volatility after halving is decreasing and thats a fact. Why?
1- Bitcoin is differect asset clas with every next halving. From ~$100 milion MC in 2012 to $0,5T MC in 2020. The bigger the asset is, amd the more volume it has the more money it needs to move it.
2- 2012 halving =/ 2016 halving. first halving decreased inflation from 25% to 12%, second halving from 9% to 4,5% third one from 3,8% to 1,9%. So every next halving has weaker fundamental influence on price Fifth halving will decrease inflation from 0.4% to 0.2%.

@OP Why 1 mln? Why not 100 mln? or 1T? What makes you think that BTC in $20T asset while gold marketcap is $12T? You really think that it is a matter of time when BTC will be twice as big as GOLD?

One biggest factor for us to see bitcoin hitting $1M is through more halving. I think that after 9 years, it is possible but not with that probability percentage.
But it's going to be a long time and a lot can happen with all of those years. But if that 20% probability will likely give that price for bitcoin in the next 4 years, well, that's going to be another great 4-year cycle for bitcoin which will make a lot of millionaires. At the end of it, we still have our own decisions until how long we're going to hold but all of us are sharing the same hope about future prices and hoping that it will eventually get there.

Let's wait till 2032, or at least the next 3 halvings as bitcoin will almost be mined that time, close to 20 million and see if we can even remotely get close to a million. It will be just like in the next 10 years and for sure majority of us will still be alive and see the growth.

Also remember that as the price goes up, the exponential growth will slow down, so we also have to take that in mind when making our predictions.

2032 is more than 20million. It is 20.5 million.
See: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5248695.msg54437484#msg54437484 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5248695.msg54437484#msg54437484)

I believe that BTC will definitely reach million dollar within five years.
With the halving of BTC and people all over the world begin to recognize BTC, I believe its price will leap up one day sooner or later.

It's a great prediction. I don't really rely on someone's analysis but rely on my intuition, which is kind of stubborn.
I feel 500k in 6 years is more reasonable; I don't think $1m is possible in 2029.

There are another TWO halvenings before the end of this decade so I think for sure yeah, $1,000,000 per BTC is definitely possible, if not likely before 2030.

On what method it is based on? Just a fragment of your mind or you have any scientific data to support your probability?
BTW I think it should go in Speculation section.

It is probably a low percentage only a small percentage of probability to expect the market price of bitcoin to even reach a million dollars, even though it doesn't have a high market price already it is going to take a lot of time for sure before it's going to reach11 million dollar price.

I think in 2030 the market price of a million-dollar could be possible in only a small percentage of 20%, it is surely going to happen if the bitcoin doesn't encounter any problem. because of the supply and demand and the fixed supply of bitcoin, it really has a huge potential of reaching a certain market price in the market.

Waiting for the next halving could also make sense in the next few years and will affect the market price of bitcoin very much as soon as it happened.

As someone who keeps believing in a shortening 4 year cycles theory I have to say that by mid 2025 there is a good chance we are going to see price surpass $1 million and give a new meaning to the word bubble. Then after the bubble burst we will be back to $1 million and start building up towards the next target in 2029 while a million a bitcoin becomes like a norm just like how silly it sounds like when saying a bitcoin was worth $1 at some point and people didn't believe it can get there!

the percentage year-on-year increase in the price of bitcoin after the halving is always decreasing, but increasing sharply. in fact, when the price of bitcoin goes up after the next halving, maybe in 2024, it's probably going to be up 3 or 4x from its current ATH, and that's pretty far from 1 million dollars. well, maybe in 2029, the bitcoin price will be close to 1 million dollars, but i also hope the bitcoin price can go beyond that.

I would rather go by "cycles", not by years.
Something like:
2021-2022 - ~30%
2025-2026 - 60%+
2029-2030 - ~90%

Just a theory/speculation of his.

Those two halving will definitely make bitcoin skyrocket. The last halving is what we see on this bull run. And on 2024, we might see an early reaction until the same of 2025.
As well as the halving on 2028 will show its positive result by the next year. The tremendous and great effect of halving matters a lot so for sure these two halving will significantly bring a vast price for bitcoin. I may not be that the same type of person before that I've got lack of patience. But this time, this is a real deal that most people must think about. A hundred thousand of bitcoin already matters a lot so what if we set our expectation higher but without heart feelings, if it won't meet that expectation, that's fine because for sure bitcoin will go somewhere in between.

I can hardly convince myself that 1 BTC will reach a value of $1 million in the next 10 years, and 2025 seems like science fiction to me in that context. I know that something extremely positive would have to happen for such a scenario, and many mentions that the crypto ETF (US) and perhaps the public recognition of some central banks to invest in BTC could cause such a high price.

However, when I look back and remember how I personally bought BTC for only $200 in 2015, I can't completely rule out the possibility that what is still very difficult for most people to imagine today will happen. What is a fact that no one can deny is that around 2030, 99% of all available BTC will be mined, and without the inflow of new coins on the market with high demand, the price will definitely be very high.

You are way too optimistic.
My predictions aren't about percentages of probability.
My predictions are more like:
2025-1 out of a million
2026-1 out of 100K
2027-1 out of 10K
2028-1 out of 1K
2029-1 out 100
If Bitcoin is still strong and standing by 2029,then a price of 1 million USD would be probable at around 1%.
However,I'm not sure that the western governments/central banks or China won't try to shutdown the Bitcoin Core blockchain by making BTC mining and cryptocurrency mining in general completely illegal.

Nothing is based on any facts and really hard to predict the 1 million dollar price, definitely even if it reaches half of it in next 10 years will be more than happy because the journey is never easy when the prices rises and falls are more drastic from the top in those scenarios. Just hope it keep rising and crosses back 50k mark for now and 100k in coming year.

OP nice,,, but this is not a theory at all. A theory must have an underlying series of evidence. A proposal or prediction is more what this is, and even then it should be based on something, even if it is just made up patterns, which is what all TA predictions do by the way so no worries if you think it might not be as good;)

2029 1 million is nice because then I will not be a millionaire but if you convert to my local currency I will have more than 1 million. Can buy a big house in the town:)