Bitcoin Forum

I am currently experimenting with a small business.

What my goal is;
I need to know the time for the day (or specific time) that the volatility is very low (the price of crypto is sideways, no huge dumps/no huge pumps).

So, I am looking for any indicator or tool for analyzing the chart.


Any advice that can I use for what I need?

I believe this would be a hard one to do because of all the differences in timezone within the world. Maybe if we could focus on a single timezone, probably with the largest contribution to the trading volume of cryptocurrencies, then we can say that they are the most influential and that the time they are not affecting the market, then it can be less volatile. Additionally, most of the whales have trading bots as well to maximize their opportunities. I think it's hard.

The indicators at the top of my head that represent volatility are

• Average True Range (ATR)
• Bollinger Bands (BB)
• Average Directional Index (ADX)

For ATR - you can utilize this by checking the distance of the ranges. If it's small, volatility is low. If it's high, then volatility is high. So you are looking for a low value of ATR

For BB - you can check the distances between the two Bollinger bands (HIGH BB and LOW BB) and it would indicate low volatility. It would say that the current action is sideways.

For ADX - quite similar to ATR in some sense. Same thought, lower value means absent trend.

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References:

https://wiki.gunthy.org/trading-strategy-options/regular-strategies-spot-trading/adx
https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:average_true_range_atr
https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/technical-analysis/technical-indicator-guide/bollinger-bands
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/07/adx-trend-indicator.asp

I'm sure I heard someone talk about bollinger bands or something for doing this. If the price is outside of the band, the asset is volatile.

You might also be able to do something as simple as tracking volume - high volume can mean high volatility. You could also look at an exchange and see how fast the price is moving (either on a simple to program script or by eye at the time of trade).

It's worth noting, these probably won't be accurate... It might just be busy at certain points and quiet at others because some are more useful than others (for example companies often trade at market open while retail might trade weekends or end of day).

I don't know how to download full time data from Trading view, automatically. It seems Trading view has restriction on a max windows to download data, if you want more, you have to scroll the chart, that takes time.

If I have data, I can play with it. Of course, result will be overview, not a tool. :)

Just a sneak peek and fee only has somewhat correlation with volatility, not too strong. For more details, you can see there (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5313115.msg56219469#msg56219469)

ATR is good and it can help you to have estimation on when and where the price will have big movements. You can also combine ATR with candles in order to estimate potential price change for coming big movements.

Just from my daily observations of price while trading and not trading. Price volatility seems to happen during certain hours in given weeks, then it becomes random in other weeks.

From my past observations, serious price movements seem to start on Wednesday and Sunday.

Rapid price changes also tend to happen at specific hours, like 00:00 UTC, 12:00 UTC, 16:00 UTC but sometimes, price movements start an hour earlier or an hour late, so I can't be specific from just my human observations  :)  perhaps@tranthidung's data interpretations could be more accurate.

Try this tool: https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volatility/24h/USD

Thanks for this data tranthidung, from your kind of data, the higher value is, the more volatile?

Thanks for all, @crwth and @jackg, I am currently trying a combination of bol Bollinger bands with Average True Range (ATR) indicator, I find Average True Range (ATR) much better for me than Average Directional Index (ADX), although they have almost the same.

Woah, this is another great tool. I can use this to identify which hours are more volatile, but it's difficult if it will do the same on the next day, like today, around 10 am - 1 pm less volatile, then tomorrow there's also a possibility that it will be the same.

Would this be labor intensive though? Because I am sure that it's going be a lot of analysis and would it be cost effective for OP because he/she is still experimenting on a business idea.

Hey I learn something new myself. Would probably need to do your own tracking, feeding off this data here for a period of time before identifying if the pattern is repeatable and if so, consistently or not. My guess is that there are long periods where volatility is of a repeatable pattern until something else in the market disrupts that. The past couple of months would appear ideal for such a pattern, but that could quickly change if sentiment changes drastically.

It's almost always correlated with our payday with BC. Lol, at times I noticed that when we're about to get paid, the prices get higher (less BTC to receive) but during Sundays, it goes down. Lol.

For OP, maybe trading between Monday and Tuesdays can be effective since it's the least movement of the market?

This is interesting. Thank you.

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I hope that in some way it helped. It's never too late to experiment on these types of things.

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He did ask what type of indicators check volatility. It's up to him to whether or not he will pursue and do it continuously.

Do not expect to find excellent results if you decide that the conversion is fixed and not subject to renewal in the variables, meaning that you study the previous data and then decide that the best day is Tuesday from five in the evening until ten.
You need an administration that manages forecasts and updates them continuously, not indicators or technical analysis tools.
Remember that bitcoin network tx fees may be another problem that increases some hidden fees and thus reduces your profits.
In general, I think that Sunday is ideal for those who want to buy and sell.

First of all Good luck to your experiment, if you find anything interesting don't forget to reveal the secret. :D

From my knowledge I never noticed that price of bitcoin is stable at anytime even on the p2p it keep changing no matter whether its an early morning or the lunch time or 12 AM so I just sell when I wanted or when I see the price which met my satisfaction.

Analysing the chart is the big challenge that learner's and novice like us also face that makes hodling preference lol. Anyway, I'm yet to understand the chart reading or timing and hours for it as some users have suggested. Sometimes watching the price movement, it seem less volatile during the early hours in the morning 12am to 6am but on other times it looks volatile and this is confusing. This is challenging to make one think there could be a pump going on without my knowledge, scary lol.

You are welcome.

I meant that data is about transaction fee on Bitcoin network only. It might or might not correlate with price volatilty. If it has correlation, strong or weak, I don't know.

Naively observation is fee tends to increase when more people are trading, the opening time of US market, ie. Additionally, when Bitcoin has significant movements, it seems transaction fee increasing as well.

From data & my analysis (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5348378.msg57418211#msg57418211), Wednesday and Thursday seems to be the best in each week. In every day, it seems hours from 13 UTC to 18 UTC can be the best. Naively speaking!

My finding tends to match with

• Here are the best and worst times of the day to use Ethereum (https://cointelegraph.com/news/here-are-the-best-and-worst-times-of-the-day-to-use-ethereum) (notes the increase from 1 to 6 PM)
• Others article about ETH
  
  • When is the best time to send Ethereum transactions? (https://medium.com/dextf/when-is-the-best-time-to-send-ethereum-transactions-80d53ae8e8d1)
  • Ethereum: how to save even more on gas price with a weekly plan (https://medium.com/dextf/ethereum-how-to-save-even-more-on-gas-price-with-a-weekly-plan-c6689ac09fe6) (details for hours and days of week)

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I remember I run a pilot analysis for @fillipone elsewhere about price and time for a few weeks of data (I don't remember where it is now).

This would be a different task and even if an indicator surfaces it would need to undergo regorous experiments to prove beyond all reasonable doubt that it can stand in for all market conditions with different sessions and conditions. I see this as a beautiful task for traders to embark on because it would boast our profit margin and keep our gains in check.

Wow, another cool source and data, I can also the fees data here and especially I am more looking into Ethereum/Ethereum network.
So, as you said "13 UTC to 18 UTC is the best time", by this means, if the average hourly fee, that's the time that there more high chances that the price is stable (non-volatile)?


That what a chart indicator is, it's just a tool that will help us to analyze, especially on technical analysis, we can't be guaranteed 100% sure there, it will only help to our decision. Just like combining multiple indicators is also possible.

I got troubles with Ethereum data in the past and can manage to run analysis on my computer with 1-month data only. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5277953.0)

13 UTC to 18 UTC is the result from my analysis for Bitcoin transaction fee, not for Ethereum's but you can see those articles found similar things on Ethereum network.

Transaction fees have inversed correlation with trading activities and probably price movements as well.

• 13 UTC - 18 UTC is worst hours everyday to move your Bitcoin.
• See the table (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5348378.msg57418211#msg57418211) for second part, intra-day.
• My methodology is:
  
  • I calculated
    
    • Average transaction fees over every specific hour within every day
    • Average transaction fee of each day
  • Compare [1] to [2], then get that table
  • Similar methodology for intra-week
• So it might result in the potential best hours to enjoy more volatility on the market. Just my guess.

I found my previous post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5298742.msg55921443#msg55921443) by which I said my troubles to export data from Trading view. If you know how to do this, please share.

I would advise you to not make any decisions based on patterns because it may end up being not so profitable, that is what trading bots are based on and you can ask any trading bot owner and they will tell you that even though sometimes it hits there are times it misses as well and I can say that for myself as well anyway so why would pay for a bot.

Think about it this way, if volatility is usually down at X time of the day but then there is a big whale that sells or buys at exactly same hour just because that is when he was awake and willing to do it, then suddenly all of your situation changes, that is not something that I would support for anyone to do, it is not really a good thing because anything could change at any moment. This is why I believe we should be focusing on more about the directions and not the patterns since it is not really healthy to expect everything to go the same way.

On this current situation of market, perhaps the best indicators to use are, Bollinger, Stochastic, super trend, Macd and you can add ichimuko clouds to determine the real direction of the candles in my opinion . But remember this are not accurate indicators sometimes because of the market situation that becomes so unpredictable  .. If you want to use this tools i suggest it will be better if you'll just use it for shorting to avoid losses.. Because base on my experience while using these indicators  there's always a false information. So combine it and do it for gaining quick profits to keep your profits safe.

I believe the exchanges actually used to do this,,, as in, put in large orders from their clients, at a fixed time of day, and then start matching them live with the orderbooks to see what is on the table. This was mistaken as whale accounts as it was just the exchanges themselves filling orders for business clients.

I think now they are smarter about that,,, so we do not see it anymore. Every exchange now understands the impact on volatility to not do their business visibly or on the chain (hence Binance their own Chain now).

The volatility indicator is a fundamental indicator that shows how much a securities deviates from its mean price, both upper and lower. The lowest volatility over certain periods is sometimes a forerunner to an impending change to high volatility, which manifests itself in trend movement and trading signals.

Bollinger band don't look perfect for this because it is not an indicator to rely on for proper direction. Some times working with it you can be correct and other time it will fall. Also you can hardly predict when the volatility of the market has ended but you keep being in the market, this is risky to use but if it can be combined with others, then you can manage on it , Bollinger is a lagging type of indicator.

IMO, Market manipulations and Strong sentiments will cause pumps and dumps
You can't get away with the systematic risk like stock market crash or KOL's negative speech.

But you can front run some market manipulation.
Since bitcoin is highly leveraged, when there's imbalance long-short ratio + high open interest
Big players will likely to trade against retail investors, and make profit from liquidations.

For example:
When long-short ratio and open interest is much higher than average.
That means a lot more people are longing bitcoin.

https://coinpls.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/tradingview_dashboard.png

You can see from the image i share in above link, the long-short ratio is super high before it get crash.

You can also check orderbook + trades history,
when orderbook get thinner and imbalance. (There's too much order accumulated on one side)
And trade volume is low, it could be a good time for market manipulation.

For finding long-short ratio and open interest, there's free data available from Binance.
https://www.binance.com/en/futures/funding-history/4

*long-short ratio = accounts with long position / accounts with short position
*open interest = opening contract amount nominated in USD.

Let me know if this is helpful for you.

Volatile was based on the coin which you had invested.Most of potential coin will have good volatile.So check the volatile before investing ,or else you can't exchange later.Some people without seeing all this invest their money and cry in the future after the loss.Don't risk in the future,just inverse your money and hold .When the market get into the pump,you can sell your valuable coin.

Yeah you wouldn't rely on one thing at once though when it comes to indicators. Some are a bit more accurate but they're best being put together.

And yes I know the stratefy with bollinger bands is said to be to buy a breakout and it's one of the reasons I didn't mention that part of the strategy for the number of times it likely fails - especially if too many people are looking at that same indicator. Breaking out and then going back inside the indicator probably means volatility went up though - but still less reliable than volume.

-Bollinger Bands
-Moving  Averages
-Average True Range

These are the indicators that i do make use together with those trend lines and support/resitances and Rsi's.

Volatility indicator is a measuring tool. Only if the data is shown in specified visual forms, volatility indicator identifies the extent to which price moves over time, producing non-directional information. High volatility generates bigger extremes in greed and fear, which has a significant impact on options pricing and market mood.

To avoid disappointment, I think we should not rush to invest, but we must study it first so that we know the characteristics of the volatile pair we are investing in. that way we will dare to hold it indefinitely because no one knows when the bullrun will happen