Bitcoin Forum

This week has been one of the most exciting weeks to bitcoin holders and traders since the bitcoin last all-time high in April 2021,

After the bitcoin price roused to $64k in April before shortly falling back to below $30k last week and then recovered back to above $40k within this week, this price movement has triggered so much analysis in the market. While some said bitcoin next benchmark will be $45k before moving above $50k some others are of the opinion that bitcoin price is going to crash back to below $25k before making a gradual recovery back to $35k.

but I think bitcoin may see the $45k price before the end of this week but what the price will be at the end of august is still very unclear to me so I brought the topic here for us to discuss.

Man. No one can see the price trend. The short-term price trend depends on how the big institutions plan to hype. If you have been watching a short-term increase of a few thousand dollars, your wallet will lose money, because luck will not keep standing. On your side.

What the price will be at that time is unclear to everybody. We can analyze what seems most likely, or certain hypotheses (if this happens, this will surely happen) but if someone could determine the price at the end of August or at any other time, he would become a multimillionaire without having to buy and hold for many years.

I believe that if we get above 41K and some, which is resistance, there is a clear path to go up to $50 and beat ATH in a few weeks. It depends on when we get over that resistance, we will get to higher prices sooner or later.

It is difficult to determine the next bitcoin price benchmark when the behavior from the market base is indeterminate. No one knows the next turn and direction even the most experienced professional traders. The important thing is that the optimism from the market sentiment has not fully recovered in my opinion. We haven't been able to break out of $40k, a really important milestone to determine. The indicators are strong, and show that it has a large breakout capacity. I hope this week we come back 47k- 50k$

Yeah, we have like >25% increased in the last 7 days.


We need to see if we can sustained the $40,000 bench mark first, so far it's been very volatile once we touch it, so that's the first goal at least for this week. If we become stable at this price then we can go and try $43,000 then $45,000.


The only way we can see it obviously if that if there are more investors willing to pour their money on the market. So that's remain to be seen.

assumptions you can make. that can help(no prediction model. just some assumed bases of economics

imagine you know 4 people around the world.
one in china. one in america. one in the UK and one in germany..

you can work out if they are going to be buyers or miners wishing to sell

heres how it works
calculate their mining costs for mining in their region based on electric cost per country stats and mining calculators.

heres the numbers i get using the most efficient hashing miner per hours electric .. plus hardware cost(spread over year)

germany 36cent/kwh = $55k mining cost per btc - not mining but buying
UK 24cent/kwh = $44k cost per btc - not mining but buying
US 13cent/kwh =$34k cost per btc - was buying last week. now mining to potentially sell
                                                                             (market price shift from $30k-$39k)
china 4cent/kwh =$25k cost per btc - mining all throughout to potentially sell

you can now work out some things
no one can mine coin anywhere on planet cheaper then $25k
so every miner would switch off hardware and just buy if price ever went that low
this buy pressure then holds the price up, lack of sell pressure holds price up

no one can mine more expensive than $55k. so if the price went up. people will have no reason to buy and would be mining to sell
the sell pressure holds price down. the lack of buy pressure holds price down

this becomes the window of value... $25k-$55k
the potential top and bottom

you may sometimes get shortlived spikes and cliffs that dont even last a few hours or a day. beyond those windows. but on a day long-week measure the numbers always fit
above the top window. is definitely BUBBLE speculation territory. never expect it to sustain

and if you think about the main countries interested in bitcoin
america, europe asia
you can start forming bases of settling points
(mainly america is considered mid-point of good support)

in january. the window based on that gens asics was $21k-$72k
and as always. it never deviated outside that window

in 2018 the window was $3k-$25k

so.
for instance. for germany to even consider buying coin above $60k long term
the network hashrate has to be above 125exahash long term and for germans to want to buy coin more then other countries below them want to sell

the higher the hashrate the more countries join in on wanting to buy rather then mine. meaning less countries want to min to sell


TL:dr;
dont expect $60k sustainable right now. no chance
dont expect $20k sustainable right now. no chance
$25-$55k is reasonable expectation window.

Just as most have pointed out here, we cannot really determine where the price of BITcoin will be by end August however I do believe that it looks like BItcoin is headed in the right, uptrend direction now.
https://i.imgur.com/iLCPk5M.jpg
You can see that, all the way from back in October 2020 Bitcoins price have always been on top of the 50 SMA and the 100 EMA until the price finally went under sometime in May 2021 and have been trading below those lines since. But look at what is happening now to the price after that, Bitcoins price has once again broken above both the 50 SMA and the 100 EMA on a daily chart. so I believe the market might be in an uptrend again even though anything can happen in crypto land and we see another downtrend of price but, I hope not.  ;)

After Amazon denied the news of using Bitcoin to pay, it caused market chaos. The transaction price is now slightly higher than $40,000. If the 200 SMA resistance level is broken, the price of Bitcoin will soon exceed $44,000.
But the price at the end of August is difficult to predict, and no one will know in advance what will happen during this time.

https://i.loli.net/2021/07/29/agxusFmTKryR5Ql.png

zooming out to the weekly chart there is so much room for growth of the BTC if this is really going to break the resistance to move up again but of course, the growth won't be just stuffed inside one candle. one thing is for sure is that this growth hasn't gone to its overbought.

so much of the negative news happening in the previous months but not a single week that the price stays below $30k which is a good manifestation of the bulls coming to rescue.

https://i.loli.net/2021/07/29/gS7HfrwdZeNT4su.png
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached 90. In the overbought zone, maintaining a balance above $40,000 is the key to an uptrend.

It's like grade school all over again!

You gave me just what I needed. Thanks for simplifying it.

Frankly, I'm very surprised to see Bitcoin at $40k right now. I think it's a temporary boost that will correct itself because it was probably based on fomo around debunked rumors of Amazon planning to start accepting Bitcoin. Unless something else happens within the next few days to keep the price up, I don't feel confident about Bitcoin managing to even keep the price at $40k, let alone go higher. I agree with franky1's expectation window as being reasonable, but indeed, it's hard to make predictions that make sense beyond the specificity of this frame.

Bitcoins will not show any big move till November-December duo because these are the months when Bitcoin's volatility had been very high and it is already 30-40% up from its latest lows made. A $3k move in an hour was to liquidate shorts in a single take and bulls successfully scared the hell outta bears. Searches for Bitcoin and crypto on Google, however, have seen sharp decline after btc and other crypto began to fall.

I don't remember any negative news in the past couple of months, there were a lot of FUD though. For example we had the small drop in hashrate which created a huge amount of FUD scaring people into thinking the hashrate is all gone and "it is the end"!
This is exactly why there was no reason for price to remain this low for this long.

Bitcoin might be corrected to $36k or $35k. Frankly, I am surprised with this soar of Bitcoin as well.

The B World's talk between Cathie, Jack and Elon help people get their belief back. The Q2 financial report from Tesla help them believe in future pump from Elon Musk. The news regarding to Amazon help them to buy at top of this recover. Congratulations to top buyers!

They were fearful when the market gives them discount below $30k and bought above $38k to $39k. They actually did great works. It will takes time for Amazon to build up payment gates for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency on their platforms. I think it will happen faster than JP Morgan (4 years) but it won't happen in a few weeks.

The price of bitcoin for the next few months is not clear. Some people who predict it will be higher or lower are also uncertain. Bitcoin market movements are unpredictable, so you don't need to buy a lot right away, just buy gradually at certain moments. But my hope, early August is a good month. Hope to reach 50K in early August

As far as the whales didn't said any bad things such as EM who really like to do anything what he wanna do. I think BTC will get its new level for the end of this week. The price movement today is supported by the fundamental positive issue from EM, Jack, and Cattie meeting. This is one of the examples for BTC Price that really need positive news to pump the price and control the bad news from China.

Everything is just a mere prediction at this time as there has been no one that can Categorically tell us the directly what the price of any cryptocurrency would. There were series of predictions that led several millions of Nigerian into making crypto investment in 2017 and that led them to huge loss.
Same thing happened before April and we can see what the result is now.

Whales is our important key to achieve bullrun to success, following their footsteps is the best decision to make. Hopefully btc will really got a positive effect on what level it was right now, lately it went up until $40k then saturates a little down to $39k. Next week, it will be expected to at least surpass $45k or better. Beyond from that is a big surprise for all of us.

I'd love to see bitcoin price benchmark at $60k again and on this specific figures the allowance is more interesting for everyone who kept hoping for profitable price that is potentially going to happen. Bad news and other FUD related stories shouldn't be taken as a serious matter to believe in because it made our brains generate more toxic ideas. Worst scenario that's going to exist will be failures and regrets, so keep personal being healthy as well as your mental capacity.

Trusting bad news and done in action is certainly a very fatal mistake, because the bad news done by certain people is very clear only personal profit and do not get used to believing in it, consider the news from just something.
Still must always be optimistic that there will be a change without bad news that we don't need to ignore anymore, it can be sure all will run well and we will see a delayed increase going back on the road again. We just waited for it to accept repairs.

How we respond to bad news is very important, I have seen many people who suffer losses because they are affected by bad news. They panic when
some bad news pops up, they think it will make the Bitcoin price fall even more, even though we should be able to ignore bad news. And trusting
Bitcoin will recover soon even in bad situations, because we will not be able to prevent bad news from coming, all we can do is ignore it. And it's not
easy to ignore bad news, but as long as we are patient and optimistic about the future of Bitcoin, I believe everyone is able to ignore the bad news.

Hard to guess, but if bitcoin will pump to $43k, then I think we might see a continuous increase and we will be back to $50k easily.

Bitcoin price movement is really volatile, it's also unpredictable as well, so let's make a decision based on our personal analysis.
Also, consider the news or the speculation that brought bitcoin to this price again, if it's big enough to sustain, then we should stay bullish.

Bitcoin prices have continued to strengthen since July 21 with gains on Monday (July 26) ET representing the largest daily gain in more than six weeks.
this suggests the short-lived pressure appears to have pushed the price higher as those betting on Bitcoin headed lower had to sell in quick succession to cover. The reason is still unclear.

We cannot conclude bitcoin support in the next week because the market correction maintains the current bitcoin price increase, as a result bitcoin is very difficult to touch the $41k price and there should be a strong push for the market to increase. Bitcoin will probably return $35k before the bull market at the next market support.

I'm not sure the Bitcoin price will drop below $30k until the end of August...

many make their own predictions, although it is difficult to predict until the end of August, I believe the price of Bitcoin will be stable between $ 35k - $ 45.

I hope that will come true, because there are some people who said to me that the BTC price will not stay at 40k USD in long term then the price go down to 38k. They put 35k as the resistance for BTC Price. You have a different view about the price for next day if we compare to my friend point of view.

For me, I guess that BTC price will have a new resistance because of some positive news that is spread in the media. If the next day there is no positive news, I think that will be hard to reach 45K USD because now the price is downtrend.

The prices have bounced back once again growing from $30k to now standing at $40k and this barrier needs to be broken as they are mixing up between $38k-$40k but soon they will surge to $45k next target with this week end and we may see $50-$55k by the end of August but this is pure prediction based on market sentiment at this time which shows sign of growth with Normal fluctuations so hope to get to that level.Hoping for best so stay relaxed and watch the market prices at this time.

What’s good about August?
The price right now is at $40k so this can be a good start for that and we might welcome Month of August with a.m good prize. I thought August is a ghost month and no new investments for many as they believe on this. Anyway, as long as Bitcoin stays above $38k - $40k, we can achieve more heights!

now the price of Bitcoin is at the level of $ 40K, and the price of Bitcoin has even strengthened 26.19% in the last week and hopefully when we enter August there will be a lot of good news that can push the price of bitcoin back up, although now the sentiment the issue of the mining ban and the relocation of mines from China is still a negative sentiment that affects bitcoin but it seems that the influence has faded a bit and we can see if slowly the bitcoin price has the potential to move up towards its closest resistance at $41500 and if bitcoin can break through that price certainly does not rule out if we will see a pretty bright August for bitcoin :).

Good analysis, that the beginning of ATH started at $45k, yesterday's price has reached more than $41k and now it's down again, of course it takes patience for us to see new ATH, maybe in early 2022 so we better focus on buying before seeing new ATH and we regret that now do not buy.

We just had a minor dip, as the price went below $40k in the last 24 hours from as high as $41k. So we will have to wait for $45k because we need to bounce back again to $41k-$42k and sustain it's natural growth. The good thing is that we just started his month, so we should be positive that August will somehow bring optimism so that we can go to the range of $45-$50k.

Yes, I do agree that the last quarter will be another wild run in the market, we could see a new all time high or better yet, a $100k price as predicted by many.

The next benchmark is basically just breaking through the resistance in the low $40,000s. It ate up into that resistance into the $42,000s, but there was no obvious break in which we'd see the price shoot several thousand dollars higher. Price now is taker a breather due to fear over the nonsensical language in the coming US infrastructure bill that could legally impose tax-related regulations on many crypto participants that make no sense and would be impossible to comply with. Assuming this gets cleared up and becomes a non-issue, I think we could see a break out of this bottom and and be over $45k in the first half of this month (August).

So next benchmark, or checkpoint, is a technical break of resistance in low $40,000s sending Bitcoin higher. Then next one after that I would say is the ATH, though that could easily take another 6 months depending on how bullish. I expect plenty of the 2021 crypto noobs who walked away on the drop this Spring not to immediately come back to crypto, though new institutional players may make up for that and send price back up to ATHs quicker than I think.