Bitcoin Forum

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E4wnZpdVcAU6wWZ?format=jpg&name=large

This chart looks really accurate, as the Twitter user said, it is a bitcoin cycle indicator. It shows the different phases of the cycle for Bitcoin since the beginning.
Another thing that I am surprised about here and amaze because of using a Fibonacci retracement and extension which will help to identify a pullback of a certain asset or best idea for price level for taking profits.

Currently, if we will base on the chart, we are in the Mania Phase, which is expecting to happen to start this month until the month of September.

What are your thoughts?

https://twitter.com/misconfig_exe/status/1408544229173858305/photo/1

I like the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart (https://www.blockchaincenter.net/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/), which puts us still in the HODL phase, and far from lower than a possible new ATH. Repeated drops have always been part of Bitcoin bull runs, but you can only be sure what it was when you're looking back afterwards.
A 50% drop can be followed by another 60% drop, but it can just as easily be followed by a 400% increase. My money is (quite literally) on the latter scenario.

The previous ATH never felt like a top. As Tytanowy Janusz put it:

Was just saying in another thread this really doesn't feel like it's done -- but we should be approaching that pointy top. Because a threefold price increase in 4 months -- relative to everything else Bitcoin's done in previous years -- really doesn't seem like the sort of massive peak supernova that's been descriptive of every bubble cycle thus far.

Won't be bitterly disappointed if we're all wrong, so I'm good to wait and see.

If we're right, though, it's got to be the next few months, though, huh?

I do hope so that that's going to be the cycle and I think that if the prices did go up at 60k, I would probably sell about half of what I hodl so I can prepare in the case that it does go down again by about half. I already have a decent amount of bitcoin so I can afford to throw some away whenever the opportunity arrives.

Did this cycle indicator predict the Elon Musk/China FUD,which crashed the Bitcoin price from 56K to 35K back in May? ;D I don't think so...
Those charts are good at predicting price patterns based on previous price patterns,which is a wrong approach,event though Bitcoin is kinda "designed" to move in pump/dump or bull/bear cycles.
Such charts/cycle indicators cannot predict when major FUD news will strike the Bitcoin market and crash the BTC price.The behavior of governments and crypto whales cannot be predicted by any online tool or software.

We're in a long term bull market (think super cycle - many years), so yes the drop in late Spring and the bottoming in the $30,000s was just the end of the first bullish phase of the super cycle. Which is why Bitcoin seems to be getting ready to come out of the market bottom and start moving up again after less than three months, because we're not in a crypto winter, just in a transition stage of the bull run. Market got a bit overheated (specifically shitcoins) this Spring plus there was the Musk market manipulating nonsense and the China mining ban, which all brought an end to the first bullish stage. Expect the next year or so to be bullish and price to probably go a bit over $100k (maybe double this year's high) before we see another of these medium term down periods / mini-bear markets.

Just don't expect a big pump and crypto winter coming at like end of this year. Some people think this will be like 2013 with two peaks. That's not what is going on. Price ain't gonna skyrocket to $200k in the next few months and then plummet back to $30k like you'd expect based on previous cycles. Next turn peak/bottom points will probably happen during 2022 and be in the $100k - $150k and $50k - $80k ranges. Halvings will still affect the market, though less so, but the four year cycle has now given way to a super cycle in which we don't see the massive boom thousands of percent booms nor the massive 80% busts, the new market participants are regulating the price a bit more than the pure FOMO and panic driven forces that previously made up 100% of the market.

I do not think the models will be identical because what happened in 2013 is not as happened in 2017 and do not forget the impact of Covid-19 that may add a new variable for the equation leads to be difficult to predict.

Many variables and expectations are open but the point of 60 thousand dollars was not the price of the price and we have seen much higher waves.
Do not forget that we are at the dreams levels if we return to the date of 2020 as no One believed to reach the level of 20 thousand.

It's not easy to predict the future since in general bitcoin is very unpredictable, however, sticking with the market trends, it will make things easy for me. With the recent movement, I believe that we are still heading in a bear market and after the bull run it's normal to see a price correction and some short bull run but it does not guarantee that we will be back to a bull market we experience in the later months last year and early months this year.

if we look at the last 2017 bull run, the price almost hit $20k but bitcoin dropped $3k+, people got panic because of a long correction then slowly bitcoin recovers until the right time has come where a new ATH was born again.

I can see the long-term movement as bullish and it might take years again to see a new ATH.

The stock to flow chart has done a fairly good job at predicting future price movement in the past. There are a ton of different charts all showing the same thing. Big drops are necessary to clear out leverage and teach people to buy and hold instead of trade. It’s actually a good thing healthy growing markets do. I wouldn’t take $100K+ off the table for this year yet. At this point I would be more surprised if we don’t hit new highs in the next couple months.

It's kinda good to be true and I tend to agree with this, Bitcoin price will remain unpredictable, and sometimes the price varies of the news and trend by the government's adoption will always have an effect on the Bitcoin price and it could be moving in an unknown direction.

But there's nothing wrong with this chart indicator, this is just a tool to technically support our prediction and it could be there's really have different phases of the cycle on the Bitcoin price.  However, if you're going to ask me about the market condition we are still good and I think the price will not go down below $30k dollars this year, even though there's no infinite growth but at least we saw strong resistance right after a correction as of now.

It's tougher to predict, but the thing that comes up in my mind, a new ATH has been done and we need to wait for another next halving before it will create another all-time high.

I never realised the Fib projection of 1.618 actually was strong support back in 2017 and this year. First time I've seen this on a chart. Very interesting. Could we be in this super cycle and go to like $150K or so, maybe. Who knows?

Keep in mind that there is always a chance that the right shoulder of the weekly chart could hold and we can still retest the $30K area, or even the last ATH of $20K or 200WMA which is like $14K or so.

People are very bullish right now however because they are thinking 2021 is a repeat of 2013 where we bottomed in July and will top out in Nov/Dec. And it'll break the $64K and stall out somewhere at the end of the year over $100K.

Yeah, the S2F model points a similarity to a 2013 that's why its prediction is still $100k.

And the last quarter of the year was a really strong push, just like what we have seen in previous bull runs or even last year. The last bottom though is $28k, or least around the line, there's also one thread saying that we should get to $14k first before we expect a massive bull run before the end of the month, but so far we didn't reach that yet.

Exactly, history in this one never seem to repeat itself which is a good thing because you don't exactly have the constant people in the market, it will grow in number or it will decrease overtime. I do hope too that with a different model, we see that it results in something really positive.

Before the end of the year a new ATH will be established watch this space

I have been reading similar view from a crypto analyst I follow, he believes we are still in bull run that btc will record another ath, so am hoping he is right, now seeing this post seem like many people are of the same opinion, let's hope this eventually plays out as many people are predicting, I keep buying little amount of btc to increase my stack.

Looks like, crossover of 20 & 50 weekly MA won't start bear market as par the OP's chart. But that crossover was the starting of bear market in the past two bull season. Lets see what'll happen in the upcoming months, bullish or bearish. TBH, i'm still hoping to see bitcoin more than $100k and won't wonder if history doesn't repeat this time.  ;D

I don't think looking at the past can help a lot with prediction Bitcoin's future, there's very little data to look for patterns, and you should also keep in mind that conditions greatly changed - Bitcoin went from being traded by amateurs with a few millions of daily volume to being traded by pros and having many billions in volume. Also things like derivatives were non-existent in early days, but now they are clearly influencing short-term price, as you can see how the pumps/dumps are aligned with things like options expiration dates.

Maybe it was, maybe not. I don't really know. But in my opinion, it was not related to a bull run cycle. It was one of the usual dumps after a huge rise. It's always happened before. This is a part of this market, the volatility. And I don't think that this will ever change. I mean that these coins (except stable ones) will never change their main characteristics. We were in the bear market and now it started seeming like we've entered the bull market again.

That looks promising to see right now, I've seen little down trend after $40k was achieved but as the fluctuations progressively undertaking right this moment let's see more great changes happens. Bull run cycle has different behavior, what we're having as of these days was just successive developments, $30k or below was only part of its growing value. Cherish every footsteps, and don't let your fear break it all down and our journey towards $60k will again blossom.

Everyone says different things about this. Some people were claiming that we were still in the bear market when the price was around $30k. And some people (like me) claimed that it was the bear market we were in. And now it looks like we're out of it. But maybe I'm wrong and the price will come down to $30k again soon.

Its neither both because we have seen lots of instances where pullbacks specially deep ones is a solid indication that it might really be having some potential bull run after that or something trying to

readying up itself on a good run but we know that it isnt a sure thing because pullbacks could neither mean taking profit time or typical sells or manipulative act etc.

We should be mindful on taking profits while we can because we wont know on how long the market would be staying up into these lines.

The current Bitcoin bull run could be entering a period of much lower growth, where the supply of Bitcoin is constrained. When the Bitcoin price is falling, it's sometimes seen as a good time to buy. But this could also be an opportunity to sell, as the price is heading for a cliff. In any case, Bitcoin prices are still a lot higher than they were when the latest bull run began.

We all have standards on analyzing the market, and it’s good that you have your own analysis. We are seeing the market differently but its good that we actually surpass the level of $30k again, and its good that we bounce back from that price because if not, we might seeing a worst bear market now. That correction is part of the trend and that’s the normal scenario after the up trend, the down trend is all we need to buy cheaper coins/tokens again.

Compare to the last 2018 bear we can say that its really better that we came to this point that bitcoin ewsily recovers from heavy dump and that $30k is totally good to see since this give people a huge moral boost that bitcoin is so strong. And for reaching $40k last couple of days it gives us possibilities that $60k or higher is reachable again so I think once bitcoin climb back at $50k for sure we will see the hype surge.

This time, bitcoin is not moving anywhere but stays at the current price.
It looks like this moment is hard to predict as the price is not up or down significantly so many things can happen this week.
Hopefully, the price will not go deeper because it can trigger people to panic and sell their bitcoin.
But if the price still goes down, we can only use that moment to buy more because that will be a good time to accumulate more bitcoin.
But I believe that the bitcoin price will get a new ATH soon and hopefully, that can happen before the end of this year.

Yes. Even if it drops even further, I believe we will never go below $ 30,000 again. That position proved to be a very strong support and it is an excellent sign for the bull run to continue.

Hopefully, the price will not go down below $30,000, although I am not sure about that because we already see that when bitcoin price stays at $32,000-$34,000, suddenly the price is down and reached $28,000, although not takes too long for the price to increase back.
There is no guarantee that the price will not go down as many possibilities can happen in the crypto market but we can prepare for the worst thing that can happen later.
And only by doing that, we can still survive in any situation, even if the price really drops to below $30,000.
But I see the supports still come to the market and if that can get more support, the price will slowly increase and we might see the price can back to up to $40,000 soon.

The recent rise of Bitcoin during the last month was a little bit of a hype because of what happened on that period.
Well, in every rise there is always a fall that is why we've experienced a near 50% decline.

Was it expected?? Yes because we know already that there will be at some point a price where holders will take profit therefore the sellers will prevail and will sell their Bitcoin causing the price to go down. Now is that scenario part of the bull run cycle. That I don't know but we saw what happened in 2017-2018 where Bitcoin went down very hard. Right now the 21 Weekly MA is rejected. There is a time that it went above it but it ended the week at almost the same spot where the 21 weekly MA is. Right now we are below that price and if the 21 Weekly MA is rejected, chances of us going to the bear market is higher although the main basis if we will enter the bear market or not is the 2 current supports right now which is the $30,000 and the $28,000. Rejecting the 21 Weekly MA and not staying above it for a week or 2 is another sign of a bear market too or I should say that increases the chances.

the price of bitcoin is still in a warming state, of course it takes enough stamina to heat it up. everyone hopes that bitcoin on a bullrun status but in reality it remains in a bearish condition.
need to know, bitcoin is still in the stage of price correction it may take a lot of time. So as an investor, you have to be patient waiting for the second stage to take place.

From a technical analysis of charts it's correct to say that these  markets are at a stage of accumulating momentum to go onto the upside, and with how charts are presented in the OP, the fibonacchi levels have played out well reaching the 88 and 76 levels to continue the uptrend. That $30k level has also been a strong support area which keeps pushing price up and should we break $43k, $45k then I have no doubt that we could be looking at a new higher high than previously recorded.

I guess when you look at the bigger picture, without a drop there is no increase, did we reached 20k as ATH back in 2017? Yes we did, then did we dropped to as low as 3k? Yes we did. Then did we reached 64k after that? Yes we did. Which all shows you that bitcoin could increase and decrease in cycles but in the end it is always going higher and higher, which I believe it will do once again.

I do not really criticize the falls because it allows us to buy cheaper, and I do not get excited for the increases neither because it just means it is good for that moment but as I am a long term investor I am not planning on selling the coins I am holding so it could be 64k or 100k but it wouldn't matter to me at all since I am not selling. Just stay calm and eventually bitcoin will be so much higher, it will have huge drops during that same period as well but ignore them and keep holding.

Today bitcoin price rose more than 6%, transaction volume also continued to rise, this shows that the market will continue to move positively, I'm sure if the price can reach $45k it will continue to rise and maybe the end of the year can make a new ATH.

I'm not worried of course because the downturn is part of the usual market cycle, with a drop to $29k as low as I think it's the best buy and not listening to bitcoin going to a bottom of $20k but for sure I will stick with the bitcoin handle at the moment, even i'm a little bit believer in some speculations about bitcoin in the end later i think it will be a big surprise whether we will be profitable big or not.
At least waiting for ATH before his $64k is the first goal.

Same here. I never worry about the potential of bitcoin to be reaching big values in near future hence even I am just watching the markets were correcting from ATH to as low as $28k levels, I remained confident about bouncing back of bitcoin markets at any time soon. And right now we are witnessing bitcoin market is appreciating slowly which might get intensified in coming weeks and in that way we might be having a new ATH in coming months.

Some people might have got panic when they are watching market is correcting up to 50% from its all-time high because they might not have seen such a big fall in any other markets but they might not aware of the fact that this kind of corrections are most commonly happening in bitcoin markets.

If this trend goes straight way up high, there's no way for the bear market to create a strong holds for its resistance.
Another possible halving will soon happens, and with an unexpected time we will able to witness several pumps. However, day traders and short term holders will still possible causes slight dumps but we shouldn't be afraid on that because we already foreseen the market capabilities.

We’re on the rising cycle again and I also believe that the dumped price was part of the market correction and now its time for recovery. We can always expect the price to go down, because we can’t take a better future without experiencing it and the dump balances the whole market. Bitcoin is aiming for new all time high, it slowly getting to that price position.

It's easy to attribute something to a pattern after the fact.

I think that a lot of people, institutional or otherwise, already wrote of the remainder of the current bull run ages ago, and they used similar timing arguments as to this "looked like a dead cat's bounce".

Obviously, it does seem like that the bullish sentiment is still significant, and with so much liquidity in the world economy today this is really not surprising. Sometimes, one does need to look at longer term trends and market fundamentals rather than dwell on short term indicators.

In my opinion, there is no longer any difference what to call this current state of the cryptocurrency market. The main thing is that the prices for cryptocurrency have now been constantly growing at a fast pace for several days. I have not yet found a real reason why this could be caused. It is also surprising that only the first half of August, at this time, the cryptocurrency market has probably never soared before. This usually happens in the fall, and then somewhere from October. What will happen to prices in the fall, if we are already witnessing such an increase? However, it could just be a short-term bullish impulse. Let's see what will happen next.

There is always manipulation (like what we had in the past couple of months) during big bull runs and the bigger the manipulation the stronger the signal for the next big leg up. It is also a way to get the market ready for the bigger rise. Imagine if price reached $150k in April right after it reached $60k, that would have been a bubble. But now that the correction and manipulation and the reverse bubble occurred the market is ready to reach $150k in August and $300k by December and $500k by first quarter next year.

It seems what @OP show in the image is happening now as the price is back to $44k. If this is really a bull run, we will be very happy because the price will rise. But I am worried how deep the price will make a correction later after hit the next ATH because, in the previous correction, the price is down by half. Still, that makes us prepare for anything and do not forget to take profit before the moment is finished because that will make us wait for some time.

If before the end of his year, the bitcoin price can be at $100k, that can make people out there amaze because they will not believe that is really happening to bitcoin and will start to invest in bitcoin like the other.

It's just the nature of bitcoin's price movement, -50% down and then comeback and make a new all time high. So yes, it's better to prepare for the worst or the better, get your profits if we reach a new all time high or higher than $64k and then see how it goes.


There are a lot of predictions that we can reach $100k before the end of the year. But hell yeah, we can still be at awe when we eventually see the price hitting 6 digits for the first time.

The correction is coming again as we see the price now is at $43k. Hopefully, it is just a weekend correction and will be back increased in the next week. The increases yesterday gives me a nice profit although not much and this correction is also gives me profit but now, I am out from the market as I do not know how long the correction will end.

That time will come but we need to have more patience because it needs more support that can lift the price to increase. Once the price reaches $100k, especially before the end of the year, that will be a good moment for us to sell some bitcoin and enjoy the profit.

Cryptocurrency market always moves on a cyclic pattern. So, a drop is a indication for the people to invest. The recovery of bitcoin has now happened. People who sold at the right time on the peak will be now enjoying the profit through the buyback at the bottom.

When the price of bitcoin marked it ATH above $60k there were more price predictions of bitcoin price reaching $100k and more at the earliest. Soon the market dropped as a result of some negative news and once again it is bouncing.

We need to accept the fact that the price of Bitcoin will not keep on rising indefinitely and if the price goes above $100k during this run it is well and good but you need to expect huge sell off as institutional investors have invested billions expecting to make a huge profit and you cannot expect them to hold the coins without booking the profit. So the chances are slim to stay above $100,000 even if it reaches them during this bull run.

Accepting is not easy, while we always want to see the price still increase. Sometimes, we forget that after the price increases, the price will go back for a while and stay for some time before the price will have another rally to the next high price. That is what we have always seen so far and that situation will be like that, so we need to prepare for any situation and condition so we know what we need to do based on the current situation. If the price increases step by step, that can trigger the bull run to come again and people can prepare for the coming. But we know that the price will not always be like that and sometimes, the price can increase higher without we can prepare. But I am positive to see the price will reach $100,000 for the rest of this year or next year.

Yeah, I would assume people would stop being so mad about manipulation. It works both ways and if we enjoy the moving up as a result from manipulation, it goes to assume we should also expect a moving down afterwards.

You're right about the bubble that we should be glad didn't happen. 150k in august sounds pretty crazy but I guess that's not impossible.

The current bitcoin cycle has had a significant impact on the growth of other altcoins. I see the correlation is very closely related to pumping some other altcoins after bitcoin broke $42,000. a lot of bitcoin prices are predicted to break through $100,000 in the fourth quarter of this year, let's see and observe future growth.

It's too early to suggest figures like 150k by the end of August. I personally do not know what could be the possible target of this bull season. To keep it simple I analyzed the market on day by day basis or week by week basis and do not recommend to give targets after 3 months or for 6 months because no one actually knows what could be the price of Bitcoin in this time duration.

Easy to say in hindsight.

But fact of the matter is that before it happened, or ex ante, no one could have told that this wasn't a bearish move.

This is why TA doesn't work. You could look for patterns all you want, but at the end of the day, how do you recognise whether or not a particular pattern is legitimate or actually noise in the larger picture? It simply doesn't work out that way. Markets are virtually random distributions of outcomes.

Basically just look at the price and see it dropping, if it is dropping then it means it will go up. I know that may sound weird to some people, but going down can be only reversed to going up, sure it could keep going down, but that doesn't change the fact that it will eventually go up.

We saw the price going down, and we realized that it could be back to 60k one day, that "one day" could be any day, it could be tomorrow or it could be 2022 or even later, but it WILL happen one day. That is why we started to buy as much as we can, since making 2x profit is a great deal, if I do it in a year then I made 100% profit in a year, if I do it in 2 years that is 50% a year which is still good, if I do it in 3 years that is 33% which is still quite awesome, even in 4 years that is 25% and very nice. So, long story short we are talking about something that is quite easy to guess why we bought.