Bitcoin Forum

I'm not really trading, but who doesn't like more BTC by selling high and buying again "low"?
Am I wrong or is the mempool being pretty empty a REALLY bad sign for the 50%+ in Price?
Is this the last high for this year? Or am I being too paranoid after 2017  ;D

You're probably too paranoid. I'm assuming we've just lost the first wave of retail - they'll probably come back once the second wave and original holders start bumping the price up again. There are people a lot of people dcaing and buying the non-new-highs and a lot of funds on exchanges.

There's a chance we lose more people than March 2020 since we've stayed down a lot longer though. But saying that, we've done 10x in a year - literally... If you were here a year ago then you've probably done well even if you held your btc since the top in 2017...

If you get into crypto after 2017, you may have enough knowledge on crypto currency. When the market make some 3 percentage of variation, you won't get panic for that. It's enough to hold at the critical time. Yesterday the price of bitcoin had crossed nearly 4 percentage and same had reduced the value of 3 percentage.

Don't be too paranoid based on your previous past experience, let's be optimistic now and look upon the reality that we're going to survive after the recent market changes. Though we experienced minor take down, but that doesn't mean we're giving up and in fact this was really doing good today because tx fees remained so accommodating with fair increase. Everytime price going to rise, increase happened but not that harse and it depends on bracket percentage.

The market way unpredictable and you are just being paranoid, if you buy at a lower price there’s nothing to worry about Bitcoin you can sell it now at a higher price. We can’t say that this is the last pump because the market is getting better and you have to move on because 2017 was already part of our history and the situation right now is really different.

Actually you are not that mucb paranoid. Tx Fees and gas prices can be really nice clue about price predictions. But with new uploads blockchains will be more relar and fluctiations will be less specially eth2.0 and btc lightning network will be affect so much

Mempool size means nothing. Even during a price drop, the mempool size can become huge, leading to high transaction fees. The current situation is actually normal. We haven't broken through new all-time highs, so why would you expect a spike in fees, just like it was in the 2017 all-time high of 20K?

Personally, I think the bull run is still on until maybe towards the end of this year.

It's not wrong.

What you see is actually good thing that we get to see high price for bitcoin yet the fee have stabilized and it's cheaper compared with the past all time high.

This only shows that bitcoin's network has improved and this won't stop even if we go to a higher price.

There is really nothing unusual here if you already know what happened before.

Just go with the flow and stop thinking too much. As you said, you are not even trading mostly.


No one knows even the most professional and experts.

Lots of reasons to believe that price will go up, either by manipulation, news, sudden event, or just a natural market price movement.

You are just too being paranoid my friend!  :D

This isnt something that fees would go up high if there is a certain price increase in the market.Situations might neither be the same or not on particular days and better just be grateful that the mempool isnt

clogged or in high traffic on where we can make out transactions without having any doubts in problem of stuck transactions due to high traffic.Yes, it is somewhat uncommon but deal with it.

Cherish while it is still cheap on fees and fast transactions because maybe next days the problem would rise up again.

correct, the fees is getting normal now not the same before, actually i made transactions few days ago and that time i noticed that bitcoin really improved during the bull run upto 43k . Perhaps it will not going back to the situation wherein the fees is too high if bitcoin continually increasing back to the current all time high value as its seem gradually upgrading the system right now.

Price increase not related with the mempool only the number of transactions are, in 2017 the reason is completely different and mostly they were manipulated and exchanges also caused as a reason but after that cycle every exchange moved to batch withdrawal system instead of one by one which reduced the workload a lot and now people are also using other modes like lightning mode or just keep their funds in the exchange itself to convert it at any time because the market is highly unpredictable.

You do not have to bother to think about the fees because that can fluctuate for more. If the fees are not too high, you can enjoy it and send your bitcoin to another exchange wallet so you do not have to do that when the price increases because the fee can follow to increase.

Hopefully, the fee will not increase so high because that will make many of us feel desperate to send the medium amount to the exchange or the other wallets. If the fees remain the same, I am sure we will be happy. But I guess the fee will be behind the price and if the price rise so high, that can impact the fee of the transaction.

The fact that the fees are low could tell that traders are not that active. In a normal situation.
Just after the hash rate drop we had, the situation is not so much normal and without more info this indicator can mislead you big time.
All in all, when OP has posted we were at the end of difficulty adjustment period. The hash rate grew in the last 2 weeks and that's why the tx fees are still low. With the new diff period I expect that next week, if the price goes in a similar way, the tx fees will no longer be nicely low.


Edit: I just noticed that the diff period has already ended not too many blocks ago.

I did also some transactions and when it's up by $40k.

Before on $20k, we tend to be problematic about the fees that people are sending more fees than a $5 coffee. Now that it has come to see that fees have dropped a lot.

And bitcoin is really showing its usability as a payment, there's still some people that just can't believe on it.

I read Glassnode's analytical study that a lot of addresses containing bitcoins have not moved since last year, which means that more people are trust that the current price is still low and the price can go up even more.
The issue is not about the extent of the change, but rather the extent of people's belief that the price will reach good levels and thus increase greed.

Second, let's not forget that many improvements have been added since 2017, and the increase in centralized platforms, Lightning Network and On-Chain solutions have made fees cheaper.


[1] https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&m=addresses.ActiveCount

+1. This is one of the best example or scenarios, active bitcoin address right now is different from previous pumps of Bitcoin, this time active address is extremely low (dumped hard) compare to previous pumps/dumps of Bitcoin.
This could be a reason also that mempool is empty or transaction fees are cheap.

As from the past few days, the market is going high and will back to its original positions after some time. So, don't be so paranoid as it is the part of trading and you know really well all the thing will just be fine after the market is going to its original position. So, you have to keep patience and wait for it.

I don't have any data to show, but I don't think the BTC price rise hasn't been sort of "dramatic" enough to stir the mempool to crazy levels. The recent price rise was more of a slow and steady growth, which is definitely better since it's highly likely to be more sustainable rather than just big green candles that is a lot more likely to have huge pullbacks. Wait til we get 10% candles and with mainstream media reporting about bitcoin price rises, then expect fees to skyrocket.

It means people store their coins in the exchanges and that can be good or bad, depend on how competent the exchanges. My only concern is about embezzlement and the so-called hacks.

The data says otherwise. People in fact have been withdrawing their coins to their own wallets out of exchanges, which is a really good thing regardless of price effects.

https://i.imgur.com/zoUrczI.png

Chart courtesy of glassnode's Twitter post[1] since I'm only a free user.

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[1] https://twitter.com/glassnode/status/1425969382664986630/photo/1

I see this as a new era in the Bitcoin price chat so no need of been paranoid for missing out of 2017 opportunity this can't be the highest price for the year and to think of it we still expect Bitcoin to retest it's previous highs first before we can then conclude on what next awaits the market for now keep buying as low as possible and ensure to sell high so as to time another good entry point to buy more.

I know a lot of people look at the events that took place in the past when they are making their decisions, but I think this year has been quite different. It might not really play out the same way that the past years has been. The price hasn’t really gone down as I expected, I thought that it was going to crash earlier since to around twenty thousand dollars or even a price that is below, but I was surprised that for months now it has been able to retain its value around thirty thousand dollars and sometimes going to forty thousand, which is really a great thing.

Most people and traders are not taking their coins out of the exchanges in the anticipation of wild price movements. This is to ensure that they are already in the action as it happens and no other hassles or waiting game has to happen before they can participate in the trading action. No need to get paranoid as most funds are probably in stablecoins too, so transfer in between exchanges are a lot faster.

Also, isn't it a good thing that the tx fees are quite low when the price is high? It rarely happens, too.