Bitcoin Forum

Reserved. Will try keep this topic updated for the year with latest screenshots to assess progress.

Not much has changed from the June 2020 analysis based on 2017 fractal. Price remains on track and suggests further upside rather than downside.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/09/10/mhzod.png (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/H9N8tQ4n-BTCUSD-Logirthmic-Curve-Network-Growth-100K-in-2021/)

Price remains above the August 2021 buy signal of  $43,829 after breaking through mid-term resistance. 200 Day MA support now conveniently located around $46K.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/09/10/mhE6z.png (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ZzorGa7t-Bitcoin-Hash-Ribbons-Buy-Signal/)

While the Daily chart may be pointing to further correction before further upside, the Weekly chart remains strong and continues to favour the bulls.

I think we should rather focus on macro economy since bitcoin is no longer nerds kindergarten. Its a poker table for institutions right now. Institutions that dont play toys. Thay have their targets, strategies. They rebalance their portfolio dumping winners and buying more loosers to fit diversification strategy. Thats why i think that extrapolating past performance is not the best idea. Its similar to driving a car on a motorway looking back all the time and assuming that street will always go straight and will never end. If Sp500 will crash 40% (currently inside giant 1.5 year rising wedge -bearish- formation) do you expect that anything ... gold, DAX, LSE, BTC will survive? I bet that BTC will dump 50% no matter what inside bitcoin indicators are saying. If we will see global recesion that will last few years, do you expect BTC to respect hash Ribbons? That institutions wont dump BTC rebalancing wallet that lost 50% on everything except BTC which pumped 5x? They will dump 80% BTC to meet 5% of whole wallet target and buy more of the rest holdings.

Very likely yes. A(nother) global market sell-off would no doubt cause (at least initially) cause a large Bitcoin sell-off, as we saw in March with covid19 sell-off. The result of this (as occurred previously) is this would result in miners switching off, ie anothe capitulation, as not as profitable mining bitcoin anymore. Another capitulation therefore somewhat negates the previous buy signal, which should go without saying.

Then this would be a case of waiting for network strength to recover in order to provide another buy signal. If price doesn't recover, and neither does the network, then there will be no buy signal. Simple stuff.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/09/10/mhTdg.png (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ZzorGa7t-Bitcoin-Hash-Ribbons-Buy-Signal/)

Price somewhat coincidentally found support from the $43,829 Weekly buy signal price. Traders of network strength don't appear to be ignoring this signal, which also lined up nicely with the 50 Day MA. For now price appears to be otherwise consolidating sideways (as extrapolated) after considerable upside in recent weeks, which shouldn't be of a surprise to anyone. This while hash rate 7 Day MA continues to move to the upside.

TL:DR: Looking good.

Quick update on the hash ribbons buy signal from August 9th 2021 @ $43,829. Price dropped approximately 10% before rising nearly 50%. The target remains around $150K based on S2F and log growth.
Based on the extrapolation of the first half of the 2021 bull market, price may be a little over-extended. A re-test of the mid-level of log growth in the mid $50K levels wouldn't be out of the question.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/09/10/mh6kv.png (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ZzorGa7t-Bitcoin-Hash-Ribbons-Buy-Signal/)

As for the extrapolation of the 2017 bull market, price has some catching up to do. A moonshot to $100K wouldn't be out the question by any means. Previously price moved from $20K to $58K (almost 3x) within the space of just two months. Now price has recovered from $30K to $65K within 3 months (+2x). It therefore wouldn't be unrealistic to see 2.5x from $65K to reach $150K within 2-3 months.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/09/10/mhPgH.png (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/H9N8tQ4n-BTCUSD-Logirthmic-Curve-Network-Growth-100K-in-2021/)

It goes without saying that the market is extremely bullish at the moment. We've yet to see another parabolic move after such a swift recovering from the $30K as well as $40K levels.

Not much to add this week when it comes to logarithmic growth based on a Part 2 of the bull market, price remains on track with a conservative target of $150K.
If anything, the start of a parabolic move to the upside is now due given the recovery has now been completed and remains in a full blown bull market.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/09/10/mhAdT.png (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ZzorGa7t-Bitcoin-Hash-Ribbons-Buy-Signal/)

As for comparisons to the 2017 bull market, price is falling behind a bit, unsurprisingly given how over-extended price was earlier in the year.
This is ultimately a good thing, as it indicates that price is overdue for more upside and remains a fair value as opposed to overbought.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/09/10/mhHzl.png (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/H9N8tQ4n-BTCUSD-Logirthmic-Curve-Network-Growth-100K-in-2021/)

Hash rate, the most relevant data as part of this analysis, continues to rise and recover and quickly closing in on new ATH.
It's possible that a new ATH for hash rate could be the catalyst for price to continue upwards.

Hi OP. Any idea on what price level that this chart or $100,000 prediction before the year-end will be invalidated?
I am not bearish here but just in case something will went wrong at least we are ready. What could be possibly happen if ever we  will not reach $100,000 this year?

As a lot of people really expecting $100,000, we only have left a few weeks before 2021 will end.

It is still possible, if the price starts to rise very fast as the OP says:


In any case, we will know soon. We have a few decisive weeks left until the end of the year, and if we do not reach $100k as all the predictions I remember were saying, we will have to study why and what predictive models can be applied for the future.

Basically this. It's almost as if people forget that price moved from $20K to $40K (+100%), as well as from $30K to $60K (+100%), both times within only 4 weeks. A parabolic move could occur as late as December and still comfortably achieve $100K. In both the bull markets of 2013 and 2017, we saw the end of the bull market as the more parabolic than the beginning, so I see no reason why this year will be any different.

Of course if the bull market is over, then we won't achieve $100K, but I don't see any evidence in the charts that this is the case so far. The exception to not reaching $100K by the end of the year, but still reaching it early next year, would be based on further consolidation before a parabolic move. I won't be concerned if price doesn't reach $100K by EOY basically, as long as price remains bullish.

Additionally if $70K were the top, and price doesn't go higher, then I therefore wouldn't expect an 80% drop in price or need for a multi-year bear market, as we have seen in previous cycles, as it would mean that this is year/cycle IS different. The main difference being not having a parabolic blow off top and therefore not having an enormous sell-off that would take considerable time to correct.