Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin price is still below 200 Daily MA/moving average which means very weak. Is this the time that we can see bitcoin below 40k$ or back below 30k$ is there something wrong or negative feedbacks that cause this dropping of the price? Do you have an idea about this dropping guys?

I guess the trigger was the Evergrande crisis. Like it or not, Bitcoin is a financial asset that is susceptible to the ups and downs of non-crypto markets. People see a hint of a crisis and sell because they get scared, then as the asset prices go down because people are selling, more people get scared and sell. In turn, leveraged positions get liquidated, etc.

It's a good time to buy, if you're going long term, which is as it should be.

Stock markets across the world are down and the Chinese property group called Evergrande caused the Asian markets to fail and then the US and Europe markets followed suite becuase of concerns the huge property group might go bust as they are in so much debt. Crypto also tends to follow the  stock markets around the world hence the sharp decline.

Probably it's because this news. you can check it here

https://www.coinhighlight.com/2021/09/how-chinas-property-market-could-trigger-a-crypto-crash/

China's bad news is always success bring market to bleeding market days. i think it's because crypto possesion from china is big percentage so when the china community are doing mass selling, it will impact to the world wide crypto market.
Hope it will recover soon.

That's a bit over the top don't you think? I mean that's crazy to think that crypto follows the stock market because that means that crypto isn't as independent as we think it is because it's basing it's movement to the stock market. Probable cause for the dips in prices is probably that there's more people that's taking some profit and there's also the news of a dormant address that's started moving.

If you look at the crypto ups and downs  throughout its history it does  follow the stock markets pretty closely Here is an Item from Forbes "Bitcoin is meant to be an uncorrelated asset and this is/was a positive. However, it is clear that right now bitcoin correlates with stocks very closely

https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2020/05/13/bitcoin-and-stocks-correlation-reveal-a-secret/

I was a little surprised when I opened CMC today seeing that Bitcoin is now hovering around $42K with more pressure that it can go down some more though getting into $30K can already be too much. Now, I searched for what can be the biggest reason and yes I also read about that Evergrande thing which is actually a China-based real estate property developer the biggest as they say in the country. What comes to my mind is what the heck has that to do with Bitcoin...if there can be a huge problem in that Chinese property developer why would Bitcoin be thrown with it as well? Should not the BTC become the beneficiary of that company's fall?  The answer is we don't know for sure.

Like the replies mention, many predict that this is a result of the Evergrande Crisis. However, having said this, Bitcoin market is very volatile and to a lot of extent immature. It needs a lot of time before it can come into maintstream. Until then you could expect it to crash like this. However, this might just be the right time to invest in Bitcoins since there is a dip right now.

Yup and this is a Domino effect , once some holder sells their coin and when the market shows dropping then others will follow and this makes the market shows the volatility , but others took advantage as they are buying when dip is happening like now.
Sad that all my funds are inside my folio, all my stocks USDT was converted when the price of bitcoin goes down to 30k level.

Hope i will find source of funds before this market strikes back,

that is what they are saying. evergrande was compared to Lehman Brothers collapse but it's no way near to that knowing that CCP could intervene to the company before it will ever happen. but this is evergrande collapse is likely done deliberately to bring markets down, the CCP didn't intervene. it's affecting investors and dragging the crypto market as well.

maybe they really need to cripple all markets just sanctioning everyone along with AUS.

i heared a news an hour ago that
this particular drop was caused by a combination of factors that may have made this drop more severe, Noble theorizes, from excitement about low-quality coins, to negative remarks from Elon Musk, to China's latest crack down on crypto services. I hope this will help you guys understand why btc price drop down to 42k$.

Fear Uncertainty and Doubt.

People sometimes ignore the power that the propaganda has, I will try to write something about the events of past 2 years when price is in 6 digits territory. But for now I stick to saying that there has been a lot of effort that only started recently trying to turn bitcoin into an "asset" that is also linked to every asset they are involved in so that when their assets fail and dump the fleeing money doesn't go to bitcoin as "safe haven".
They have been successful to some extend as we can see today and we saw at least 3 more times that bitcoin reacted to other markets while there has never been any kind of connection whatsoever.

The good news is that since there really isn't any connection the propaganda has been backfiring. We saw in 2020 that a lot of money came into bitcoin as bitcoin recovered while their assets (mainly stocks) were still struggling and people realized the drop was a market manipulation.

Even though Bitcoin and the stock market are different, there's a connection that holds both of them. They are both in the economy section, yet, many stock investors hold Bitcoin as an asset too. There should be many if you want to list. It's like the central bank of a country having financial crisis, and because people have both fiat and Bitcoin, you'll see how Bitcoin price will go up because they want to convert their remaining fiat to Bitcoin.

World market is down.

And here goes again the correlation of bitcoin and the crypto market that sometimes happening. Although in reality there's no straight connection of bitcoin and stocks but I've seen it a few times that it did.

Correction? lol this only happens if there is a Big pump but what we have now? stabling at 45-48k this whole week and now we are having correction? seems like not ethical to believe.
maybe we are now in a good position because the market is recovering now , and looking for some grow back in the next 7 days.

No, you have never seen this correlation ever. What you saw was the propaganda I talked about above in the media and didn't follow it yourself and didn't do any research.

Last time we had this propaganda was during the pandemic when COVID broke out. Bitcoin got dumped because the propaganda had convinced everyone that bitcoin is linked to other assets and as they were dumping then bitcoin should have dumped also. But it backfired as bitcoin was done dumping and it reversed back up while everything else continued dumping. While bitcoin went up 100% above its pre-dump price, those other assets were still trying to recover a tiny portion of what they had lost. This little fact attracted a lot of money from those assets and is one of the reasons why bitcoin price is currently 1306% above its bottom price at the peak of propaganda while many of those other assets are not even at their pre-dump prices, most of stocks have gained very little after the recovery and so on.

Now you tell me again where exactly did you see this correlation multiple times?!!

Just traders doing what traders do.  You couldn't expect a clean golden cross without some profit taking to setup for the next leg.  While these signals are great, they are usually preyed upon for quick and easy profits.  That doesn't mean they are invalid signals, just that there's always got to be room for the traders to make money, or at least to try.  If we got down below $30K I would agree that something horrible has happened.  For now, we should just chalk it up to typical volatility. 

I suspect that there is a reason for a panic situation that could affect the bitcoin price as the Evergrande debt pump and the effects surrounding its FUD could begin when the Federal Reserve meeting happenning. If they plan to ease their central bank bond purchases, that would be another divergence that could yield a major bull run for bitcoin. currently, bitcoin daily MA is still around 200 and very weak showing that the state is not yet positive, but the accumulation is growing.

I'm still loyal to that 200MA. Yes, was expecting a bounce, but it's more often than not a keen and consistent line that price shouldn't stray too far from, and that bounce has to be coming.
 
I did say yesterday I'd be worried if we do go sub-40k and stay there a week, but volumes aren't enough to sustain the bears even at this stage so it's at best temporary exhaustion until Q4 comes around the corner.

Just when one thinks we have got rid of China they reappear and cause panic, only this time not directly with something to do with cryptocurrencies, but with obviously a very big impact on the real estate and stock markets due to the collapse of one of their large companies. Given that there is evidence that they knew the company was in trouble at least since 2012 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5360111.msg57987779#msg57987779), the question is why did they let the debts pile up?

Maybe because, as always, they will use this situation to buy on foreign markets at a discount, a strategy that obviously works very well for them.

As far as cryptocurrency is concern, there are several factors that influence her price; demand and supply, positive and negative news etc. She is not different from other businesses, business circle also occur here. The most important thing for crypto trader or lover is to know when to buy, sell or hodl.
But, the great news is that Blockchain and crypto has come to stay. As day progresses, it keep going viral.

I'm not an expert and economist but with what I've seen in the past is that when stocks was down, bitcoin was also down too. That's just based on what I've seen. I don't know much about this propaganda but thanks for this because I've learned something new.

That's why I've said that there's no straight connection on it and it's just my opinion that I've seen it being correlated few times as they've been down together at the same timing from what I've seen before.

We heard that stock is down while many stock investors are moving to bitcoin, so they think that bitcoin will also be down as stock so they sell their bitcoin before it is later. That is a little analysis from me but I do not know what causes the bitcoin price to drop to $42k. The price now is at $43k and has already reached $44k before. But the price can go back to $42k if people are still selling their bitcoin because they heard of the bad news at stock. If they can hold and have patience holding bitcoin, bitcoin price will not go down instead will increase because people will want to invest in bitcoin after what they see with stock. Hopefully, this will not take too long to see the bitcoin price will increase again.

If you look at the graph, yes. Bitcoin is weak right now. We must be vigilant when entering into a coin that we want to invest in. Make sure it's very potential in the future. We are now in a bearish time.

A classic example of writing an article about nothing and saying nothing


TLDR

We don't have proof of anything but let's piece some example of what it could be if what we imagine would be indeed real and then extrapolate even more enough to make it into a one-page article so we can put some google ads on it and make some cents.



Common, lately, you're seeing only conspiracies, sometimes when I read your post I double-check to see if it's really you writing this.
Seriously, what's gotten into you?


And again it's exaggerated fear, it's more of a scare of what could be rather than what actually is happening. I'm watching how silent Beijing officials are about it and it seems like they don't plan on doing anything to save it, they will let it flop and rescue only some of the most affected y the wave but otherwise normally viable companies.

I like your vision, but you still haven't convinced me completely, only partially. I used to think Bitcoin was a store of value and it would remain to be seen if in the future it is a currency. You argued to me in another thread that it is a currency and it remains to be seen if a store of value. Now I think it is both, which I know is not exactly what you think but it is closer to your thinking than it was before.

But I think the analogy you raise is not correct:


I've bolded a couple of sentences.

I don't know what you compare Bitcoin to, but comparing it to indidual stocks is not indicative of anything as an indidual stock can go down when the market is up. If we compare it to the S&P, the S&P has had a comparable rally to Bitcoin, it is up 100% since then, which is less than the 1306% you cite, but that is a lot of upside in a year and a half for an asset that is up 10% on average per year, and where the assets that make it up are stable low volatility.

I don't see a conspiracy of a hidden hand trying to make people think that Bitcoin is an asset linked to other assets. People just believe it without anyone trying to convince them.

The masses who are buying Bitcoin are not doing it because they dream of paying with Bitcoin at Starbucks, they are doing it because they want to make money. The same goes for institutions.

Another thing is that in day to day life many people spend it as a currency, but it has the part of a financial asset.


Well, he seems to have a strong and clear view of what Bitcoin is and how it works, but the conspiracy theory part I don't see it either.

We really don't know, that is the reality. We can't just rely on the news or any FUDs as I'd never heard any but have to consider this that any drops and pumps will certainly come at any moment and not a thing to worried about.
Perhaps, I was expecting this to come. I know some didn't happy with what they saw but can't deny that some were also praying for this just for the sake to let them buy coins at a cheaper price. This is gonna be an opportunity for them, right? And if we have money, may we could take this chance as well.

According to Cointelegraph if South Korean crypto exchanges fails to submit their new requirements then 10 crypto exchanges will wipe out and that will be with in 24 September. It would be the reason for decline bitcoin price.

Hard to say that these fundamentals arent relevant because having these kind of events or upcoming decisions would really be causing out such possible results or effects to the overall market.

Its really hard to determine which one or the main cause of such slump because price could move out randomly or unpredictable which it is really hard to make out decisions on point.

This is something that you could see almost everyday when it comes to price volatility.It could neither pump or dump.

We have the upcoming Bitcoin futures expiration if I'm not mistaken (billions worth, I don't have the exact numbers though), and this is a big factor every month why the price keeps on dropping on the last week. So I wouldn't be surprised by the current move, although I think the $43k should be a good support, unfortunately it is broken down, so a bad sign that we might see <$40k before the end of this month. Nevertheless, we should keep on buying and stay relatively calm on another dip in the incoming days.

We can expect a bounce back if those exchanges submitted their requirements, probably people are panicking without knowing the real situation because you can still access your funds even if those exchanges failed to submit because that’s your money and they are still regulated so nothing to worry about. This is a temporary dump, good things will come again, keep holding.

That is the advantage of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency, it is very risky but that is also the reason why we gain profit from cryptocurrencies. There is some people who are controling Bitcoin they are what we call big whales, never be a prey by them by holding your coin.

I don't think that news caused the decline. I saw that there were so many FUDs being spread, so we can conclude that a group of people are still trying to drop bitcoin to the bottom, so FUD will continue to spread, but the real support point will be no less than $30k is probably the low point.

Because there will always be many causes but it's all temporary for me and we must be strong in this case don't be influenced by bad things, keep your assets.

Maybe in the next few days there will be a FUD.

The only relation between Evergrande group and Bitcoin dump I can think about is if the company needed to sell their BTC holdings (in case their had it) at once in order to pay their increasing debt with China's government. Because for me it really doesn't make sense to say Bitcoin is losing price because investors are avoiding stocks market. ???

It would be more logical to see bitcoin rising if that was the scenario, because when investors aren't confident in traditional markets they have crypto currency and more specifically Bitcoin as a safe heaven.

When people have no way to explain something, they just match different situations happening at same time to conclude one is the cause and the another is the effect.

You know, many people say that Bitcoin is currently weakening, but that doesn't mean Bitcoin will lose its popularity in trading and investing. Regarding the cause, of course there has been negative feedback and certain issues regarding Bitcoin which is currently at its peak, but I don't think that it will result in a sharper decline until it hits $30k.
Surely there are still the people who decide to buy or re-enter to invest, and in it of course rich people will be there. I'm more sure that soon it will be in a high trend again.

we can see chart patterns every week, month and year all look up and down, pump so sharply and then fall. so the market fell at $42k, it's still normal, because the next day it will be pumped again even though it's not 100% at least experiencing a positive movement. The problem that causes the bitcoin price to rise is various factors, it's not a big problem. smartly you understand it, so that there is no panic sell in the future.

Well lets call it a narrative change if propaganda is a strong word.

When I look back at the history, from the inception of bitcoin up until early 2017 the term "asset" is rarely used to describe bitcoin. However, the biggest narrative change starts in early 2017 as bitcoin starts being referred to as an asset and a store of value while the "currency" definition is starting to disappear. Surprisingly this is the same year when payment processors (representing the usage of bitcoin as a currency) are reporting ATH in number of payments they are processing!

In the same time frame (2010 to 2017) people compare bitcoin with anything they can but calling correlation is going too far. We also don't see any significant panic sells each time stocks dump and most of the times bitcoin remains indifferent and actually goes up.
Then from 2017 the somewhat new narrative is pushed that there is a link between bitcoin and other assets (gold, stock, equities, bonds, commodities, etc. only focusing on US and China!). There are hundreds of articles focusing only on times when bitcoin reacted to dumps in those other markets while ignoring any other time when it didn't and also interestingly enough ignoring the "rise" part. The narrative is mostly ignored since price is reacting wildly during 2017 and is smashing through a new ATH regularly. But then comes 2018 and the attention to this narrative is increased specially since there is a huge wave of newcomers who can't fathom why price keeps going down (the bubble pop) and later on why it isn't setting a new ATH every week (during accumulation of 2019). So they seek justification and find these articles.
We still see very weak reactions to stock market dumps similar to before.

Finally we get to 2019 and the turning point in history of bitcoin. The COVID pandemic begins and there is a[n almost] global economy crash and bitcoin drops significantly at the same time. The narrative from this point gains a very strong footing and people start believing that there really is a "link". The result is that nowadays we see panic sells 90% of the times when US stock market dumps.

So the only thing I see changing is that people eventually believed this narrative. Otherwise there simply isn't any logical reason why the price of this global decentralized currency should be affected by something as irrelevant as how US stock market is behaving!

---

If I wanted to give as unbiased an observation as I can about the "cause" of this drop (and similar drops) I'd say that people have always been trying predict bitcoin price and have been failing. Specially since Technical Analysis doesn't work very well for bitcoin. However, they don't stop predicting; instead they start finding new methods of prediction. If I wanted to give a list of ways people try to predict bitcoin price in decreasing order of stupidity:

1. Predicting price based on number of tweets Economics Letters, vol 174, 2019 (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176518304634)
2. Predicting price based on Google trends Do Google Trends forecast bitcoins?, Journal of Banking and Financial Technology, vol 5, 2021 (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s42786-021-00027-4), BitCoin meets Google Trends and Wikipedia, Scientific Reports, vol 3. 2013 (https://www.nature.com/articles/srep03415) (second one is correlation not exactly prediction)
3. Predicting price based on hashrate
4. Predicting price based on number of on-chain transactions
5. Predicting price based on amount of bitcoin moved (notably the scammers over at whale-alert.io)
6. Predicting price based on other asset movements specifically US stocks. Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies, 2020 (https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JDQS-07-2020-0016/full/pdf?title=bitcoin-and-stock-markets-a-revisit-of-relationship)
7. Stock to flow model

Any of these silly theories have their own followers, some more than others. Whenever one of them takes place or someone abuses their naivete and gives them a signal (like scammers at whale-alert sending them a tweet about "a whale dumping", Google trends dropping, or their twitter feed saying Evergrande dumped and S&P followed) these "followers" immediately and blindly dump their bitcoins hence causing the drop in short term.
I still wouldn't call any of this "correlation" since it looks more like "lack of experience among day traders" which is then abused by market manipulators giving them the signal.

Hopefully, we will not see the price is in under $30k this month or next month because if that happens, I can not imagine how panicked people see it. They will sell their bitcoin temporarily and wait for another time to buy back Bitcoin at a low price because they think that bitcoin can down for more if the price is below $30k. Many reasons why the bitcoin price drops this month but we can not know the truth and only guess and speculate. But bitcoin will rise at the right time and who knows, that time will come in the next months.

if you look at the current market conditions the potential for bitcoin prices to drop below $40k is very large. I don't know if this price drop is a normal price drop or an early indication that bitcoin is going into a bear market again. I hope the bitcoin price won't drop to this year's low of $29k as that could trigger an even bigger price drop.

It's not about the word but by the times you're using it, the moment you reach 1 mention per line it does pose serious questions.


Not surprising at all, if it weren't for the price increase you wouldn't have seen any increase, going by the "surprising" thing you might actually think that calling bitcoin an asset is what fueled the growth. You see, this happens when you speculate that much and you see things where there is nothing.


And it was a link, and it's a pretty obvious one.
If you reach 99% unemployment and people run out of money then every bitcoin will be worth shit as there is simply no money out there to invest, guess what people who have coins and have lost their jobs and business will do? Sell! This was no economic crisis scare, it was at that time seen as a possible catastrophe, it's normal people would be scared.


The last time the stock market coughed a bit harder it sent us back a decade, calling it irrelevant even if you're speaking of bitcoins or scarecrow manufacturers is just silly. Like it or not that's where the power is and it will be for a long time from now on.

Finally, I can agree with you on something,

I also believe that anyone who thinks for real he can predict market movements accurately over short intervals is just full of shit, you either are a complete moron or a scammer trying to earn money from people who trust you.

That being said, although I do appreciate your points I still think you've gone lately a bit too far into those conspiracy theories where everyone is against bitcoins and everything bad is caused by stupid people who don't know better. Remember that the ones selling are the ones that bought, without them the price wouldn't be here in the first place, without traders there wouldn't be that much activity either, and most important, bitcoin was about freedom, they own those coins they can do whatever they do with them, calling them any names, accusing them of x and z, blaming everything on random poeple shows one thing, that a community is becoming toxic to the outsiders. Never! has this ended well.

Oh and just to mess a bit with you  :D :D


TSLA 20 March $85 now  $747, 778% sounds pretty nice to me  :D :D

I think that most of the reason can be attributed to straight up FUD.

The Evergrande crisis in China should have absolutely nothing to do with crypto, but people are way too overreactive and tend to assume that this is the case.

Plus, it'll be a similar event to COVID - the government will bail out the financial sector and there will likely be no harm done anyway.

Again, Bitcoin is very volatile, so these ups and downs are par for the course. Don't gamble an amount that would burden you're family.Bitcoin today is rising up to 43k$ after reaching 40k$ so I think market is now slowly going back on its track to 85k$ to100k$ at the end of year 2021.

It is good to see bitcoin is back to the green candle, but there is no guarantee that bitcoin can increase to the high price as the price can get dumped again. Maybe the bitcoin price is down because of something happening out there but we do not know what is causing the price to go down and only guess. Hopefully, this will bring a positive trend to the market so the price can increase more than now, although we might see another correction later.

This is another typical movement of bitcoin and we will lose if we sell to early that's why its better hold if you buy at the top also accumulate at the dip to recover what you supposed to be lose when the price got dump although its easy to say this but we need to see what is the possible last dip to come and look where the strong support on so that we can hit the right spot to earn again once bitcoin bounce back after the dump happen.

I think the stress is just a normal level of protection for investors, you can subjectively think that the impact from the Chinese real estate group is not so severe that crypto has to go into recession and drop but this ghost haunts other investors more, they feel the financial storm will erode value as well as force some businesses or individuals to sell assets such as crypto to stabilize losses from the Chinese stock index. But pretty quickly there were voices of encouragement from the banks and eased the worry, as you say, the government will have bailouts to not cause more damage.

Though no one can surely predict on cryptocurrency. But i don't think that Bitcoin price will drop below 30k$. Bitcoin price is now so much volatile. Also in cryptocurrency price increasing and decreasing is a simple issues. When a lot of people sell Bitcoin by getting panicked by any negative issues or fake news or signals then the price going to decrease. Again when a lot of people or a lot of Bitcoin buying by people then the price going to increase. I think Bitcoin price will recover as soon as possible and again it will hit $50k.

I am 90% sure that it was the whales that wanted to manipulate the market, that seems like the most logical argument. I am not saying bitcoin doesn't drop without whales, it does drop but not this quickly and it dropped way too quickly for it to be retail investors.

It means that it was man made since it was that quick, one thing happened that caused it to go down and if it is one thing then how could it be thousands or even tens of thousands of people all together. Was there a party called "let's all sell our crypto all together" that thousands joined that I am not aware of? If not then it was whales that collectively got together and dropped it (or even maybe one big whale) which caused the drop. It is temporary and I am not worried at all, we will get it higher soon enough.

No idea whether the FUD was prevalent when the correction started, when the market was showing weakness i could not find any reason and then all of a sudden an article popped up about the crisis in China and people are turning to safer assets. These are all narratives that people always find whenever there is a correction and today the market is recovering.


The government cannot bail out everyone, if they keep printing money then eventually they will reach a point of inflation.

Profit taking is always a large part of action, mostly its best to look for triggers and this time it was the wider market I think combined with prior gains in BTC and volume still overhead at the highest prices for 2021 which has sellers in there who bought rashly now wanting to sell on these wider market doubts.

The mythical whales argument is unfortunate, most of the market action occurs through consensus.  A whale cant turn the tide, they will get beached on the shore even the greatest of animals can be stranded alone, if any trader leaves liquidity it ends badly for them.  Wider market is bigger then that idea of puppet master large buyers.

I think the liquidity crisis of a property company like Evergrande Group makes investors and whales worried, and this makes the cryptocurrency market experience a price decline like what is happening now, the occurrence of liquidity for a large company like evergrande will certainly trigger worries for big investors and also whale, so they liquidated the crypto funds they had so far and of course this further exacerbated the price decline that occurred in bitcoin.

Currently all coins are being corrected in the market, not even just bitcoin, for other coins to feel the current market correction, bitcoin prices will return to normal by the end of this year, if you look at the trend towards bitcoin in the past few months, then the opportunity will be very possible and I believe bitcoin at the end of the year will be above 40K $ or even more than that number, but in the crypto market anything can happen, both bitcoin and other altcoins.