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What will be the impact of US Infrastructure Bill 2021 on bitcoin ? Many people are saying that bitcoin will dump on this event but i fell otherwise. When everyone is anticipating a dump, we may see opposite. Also bitcoin is moving in falling wedge pattern and a pump is more likely to happen.

It would help to drop a link and a summary of the bill and why it should have any effect on bitcoin at all.

Here's an article (https://inews.co.uk/news/crypto-us-infrastructure-bill-bitcoin-price-joe-biden-tax-plan-explained-1145825) and another (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/11/crypto-lawmakers-fought-over-the-infrastructure-bill-heres-whats-next.html) I could find on it, and if I understand it correctly, it suggests there would be stricter regulation of cryptocurrency through taxations and the use of ambiguous words in the bill makes it unclear who exactly would be affected.
If it would have an effect, it would likely only be short term and with time the position of the Senate and the IRS would become clearer, it also has the potential to be bullish as it shows growing acceptance of digital assets by the government.

When the bill was being discussed, and was resolved unfavorably, the price went up, if I recall correctly, at least most of the time, and I remember commenting on it. But maybe it was because there was still time until it was actually implemented and it could still be changed.

If they talk about regulating crytpo and put more restrictions on the exchanges, then for sure this will lead to panic and bitcoin might dumo. The problem with the dump is that it take few hours for bitcoin to dump few thousand dollars but recovery takes days, weeks and in some cases months.

The bill is awful for bitcoin. I don't often recommend reddit posts, but there is one here everyone in the US should read: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/pr7fow/new_shocking_us_crypto_regulation_far_more/. Also have a read of this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5360520

In short, it heaps a whole bunch of new regulations on bitcoin and exchanges, tries to penalize anyone who takes their privacy seriously, tries to outright ban stablecoins, tries to make everyone who uses bitcoin responsible for collecting the tax details of the other party they are transacting with, and a whole host of other completely ridiculous things. In short, it makes using bitcoin legally an absolute nightmare, and thereby paves the way for the launch of a centralized digital USD. The whole point of the bill is that they don't want people to be able to use a currency that they don't control. So they heap a pile of ridiculous regulations on it in the hope that most people will choose the path of least resistance and opt for the digital dollar, which they can freeze, seize, and print more of at will.

If you only care about what the price of bitcoin will do in relation to this bill, then you are missing the point. You should be contacting your representatives now and telling them to either vote against this bill or to introduce amendments to fix its insane anti-bitcoin provisions.

I was expecting the price to dump when it was, some might say unfavourable towards bitcoin. I would say that maybe it shows the market is maturing & starting to not care about governments temper tantrums any more but we’re currently in a correction due to China so who knows. The market does strange things at times.

Considering everything I’ve read about what this bill can cause in the US, and then indirectly in the rest of the world, I think we should all be worried about what’s going on right now. The fact is that the world revolves around the US, not the other way around - and that any law that comes into force there will come to other countries of the world (in an easier or harder way) sooner or later.

I also wondered why the crypto market does not react to what is happening in the US, and @o_e_l_e_o pointed out to me one important fact - if the bill is accepted in its current form, it will not take effect until early 2023. Consequently, at this time next year, we may have a big discussion about how the US banned Bitcoin in 101 threads throughout the forum.

It's also one of those annoying things about the way the US works.
They write the bill, they discuss the bill, people hate the bill and try to convince their representatives to vote against it. But, there is very little chance that they change a lot of it before it's passed.

Then the legal challenges start. Coinbase / Gemini / you & I / etc. cannot start legal challenges till it's passed. Because, until it's passed there is nothing to challenge.
So, we sit and wait.

-Dave

Even without this bill in the US, other countries will start passing similar laws. It's the same underlying thing which is happening in China right now - they want people to use their upcoming CBDCs instead of bitcoin.

Partly because a lot of people don't know what is in the bill, partly because the bill hasn't actually passed yet, partly because it won't take effect for a few years if it does pass, and partly because there is still time to challenge or amend it during that time.

I'm more than a little disappointed we haven't seen big exchanges lobbying Senators or House Reps to amend this bill. More than happy to profit from the community, but don't stand up to defend that community when it counts. Hell, knowing Coinbase they are probably already working on the most efficient way to screw over their users by complying with all these new regulations.

It would be safe to say that the whole cryptocurrency industry remains not in favor on this Infrastructure Bill and there are many reasons for that. unfortunately, the bill that was approved is not really favorable to all players within the industry. However, it does not mean that it would be the end of Bitcoin for that matter. This is a taxation law and is not really a bill focusing on cryptocurrency. Once it can be finally approved by the White House, we will see how it can be implemented. Anyway, the very idea of taxing something entails that you are generally recognizing that something is existing so this is the advantage of the bill - that recognition aspect of Bitcoin and the crypto business.

Obviously the government passing restricting laws, such as what seems to be this bill, will slow down the adoption of bitcoin and can cause short term "drama" in the market, but have we forgotten that bitcoin was created to be decentralized and not care what the centralized authorities say?

Besides technically speaking a law that affects only 3% of the world (ie. US population) should not change anything about bitcoin's future. Granted some weakling countries such as parts of Europe could possibly follow if pressured, but you think people in El Salvador, Japan, Venezuela, Switzerland, Germany, Ukraine, Iran, most of Asia and ... give a shit what law US passed? In fact this could be a golden opportunity for other countries. Big companies each with billions of dollars of revenue could easily migrate to those countries and bring with them a lot of money and jobs.
For example look at what China did some time ago to their miners. Now Iran is absorbing a shitton of hashrate as miners migrated and they already had the farms ready and were growing.

no it does not.
it requests businesses that offer a service to be a middleman for other parties to report.
but to be a business that offer a service to be a middleman for others you need to register as an MSB anyway

in short it affects brokers aka exchanges, escrows, remitters, altnet routers

calm down the fud.
accepting bitcoin for a coffee, or any product is not a broker otherwise fiat grocery stores would be brokers.
this is not the case. just accepting transactions is not what a broker does.

maybe try not to read reddit as much. and instead read the wording of the bill itself. without all the social drama of fud.

with that said. yes it allows businesses that are already MSB with a reporting portal to carry on with minimal change. where as newbies wanting to become exchanges now have an extra hurdle to jump to become valid exchanges in the eyes of the law.
the biggest impact is going to be them altnets that offer 'routing' services for users. as thats where the extra tax income the government predict will come from.
meaning regulated 'routes' would have to charge higher payment fees, making the altnets that offer 'faster payments' more expensive than promoted over the last 4 years

The EU is much weaker than it may seem to someone, we just need to remember how the leader of the same EU (Germany) reacted when it was discovered that the US secret services were eavesdropping on the German Chancellor - almost nothing happened, and it was a political scandal for which the US would crucify a country and impose all possible sanctions on it if it happened to them. The strong influence of the US on the EU has lasted since the end of World War II and the fact that there are still about 90 000 American soldiers there - who or what are they keeping 80 years after the end of the war?

Japan is more or less also under the influence of the US, something similar to Germany, there are over 50 000 American troops there - and if you look at the relationship between the two countries, Japan mostly does everything it is asked of. Ukraine is perhaps the easiest target of all, as it depends directly on US assistance to prevent further loss of territory to which Russia does not hide its claims - so it will pass any law that suits the US.

You have forgotten India as the second-most populous country in the world that fully supports the US, and one should only remember that they literally copied every American decision when it came to US sanctions against China.

The only countries that openly oppose the US are North Korea and Iran, which are still avoiding the fate of Iraq and Afghanistan, but it is only a matter of time before they feel the power of Western democracy on their skin.

Except that those 3% hold 30% of the total wealth in the world.
And another 18% of the global population holding the same 18% of global wealth has just cut crypto from its economy a week ago.


Yeah right, Apple and Tesla and Mercedes are going to migrate to Venezuela and Iran because of bitcoin....
Doesn't matter that these countries have the habit of nationalizing everything, companies will be thrilled to move there.

Right now there is only one country that matters, and that is the US, like it not this is reality.

This is meaningless. The government obviously recognize that bitcoin exists, since they already tax it as a property and already ask literally everyone about it as part of their 1040 tax form. Taxing it more or heaping more regulations on to it is not a good thing because the government will somehow recognize it more.

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Yes, it does. Have you read the wording of the bill itself?

You can read the text of the bill here: https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684/text. Please see Section 80603, Part (b) Reporting of Digital Assets, Part (3):

Now let's look at 6050i here: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/6050I. Anyone who makes a trade (or a series of related trades) worth more than $10,000, must file a return containing the name, address, and TIN (Taxpayer Identification Number) of the person they are trading with. The TIN is most commonly the other party's SSN.

So if you trade ~0.23 BTC with anyone, even if split over multiple trades, you need to collect their tax details and report it to the IRS.

*Not* defending them, but it might just be a better allocation of resources.
Lobbying is big money, and usually quiet. Bringing a big lawsuit generates good press (free good PR) and can get others to join (Coinbase starts the lawsuit and other exchanges join in) so there is lower cost to each company overall.

Also, if they play the game right, they can get an injunction so the law is not enforced till the court case is done. So there is that. Not saying that is what happened, but I have seen it happen with other things.



Technically you are supposed to do this for a lot of things. If I sell you a 1oz bar of Rhodium for $11000 in cash there is certain paperwork that must be filed. That nobody does. Because I am handing you a 1oz bar of metal and you are handing me a stack of cash. There is no trace.

-Dave

The current position of cryptocurrency is in a good shape in my opinion and even the charts seems like we have a little bullish movement in the coming weeks.
If the bill is approved and cryptocurrencies are regulated then I think this would boos the price further upwards since it would mean wider acceptance of cryptocurrencies.
Many number of merchants will start accepting cryptocurrencies and this might grow the number of people using cryptocurrencies on daily basis.
So this might create a positive impact on bitcoin and other popular coins.

Have you seen the bill yet? I think it is going to depend on what it is all about, and that’s what will determine whether it is going to affect bitcoin price or not. If it is not something that is going to affect bitcoin there, then it’s  it going to have any effect.

Moreover, I think it will be a harsh thing for them to do if they would suddenly turn against bitcoin there, because there are already lots of big cryptocurrency exchanges/companies there now, and doing something that would hurt them won’t be a good idea. Although I do know that if anything happens these companies will quickly move to other locations where it’s legal for them to operate.

The two are not mutually exclusive though. No reason an exchange couldn't do both, and indeed, only doing something if they think it will bring them good PR is even worse, but that's pretty much Coinbase's ethos through and through.

Sure, but neither metal nor cash have a publicly viewable blockchain or multi-million dollar contracts from the US government to various companies to link individuals to specific pieces of metal. If you use centralized exchanges, then you won't really have an option but to start doing this since the government will already know all your addresses. I'm sure some people will try to avoid it as they do for other >$10,000 trades as you point out, but there will be a lot more government investigation of bitcoin trades than there will be of other cash trades.

Basic fundamental ways US infrastructure bills could affect crypto

US infrastructure bills represent trillions of dollars in additional spending and inflation. Which could increase the value of inflation protected assets like bitcoin. Higher inflation could correlate with a greater number of people recognizing the dangers and seeking ways to protect their wealth. Which could drive cryptocurrency mass adoption to greater heights.

Inevitably taxes would need to be hiked to cover the enormous cost of these bills. Governments could be incentivized to find new revenue streams to balance the budget. Legalizing marijuana and cryptocurrency could be natural markets to nurture and protect in order to grow tax revenues. It all depends on state priorities.


In 2020 there were news stories published about a virus in china negatively affecting supply chains, for weeks or months, before the market finally crashed.

Markets have failed to trend the way they naturally should for many years now.

The US got light drugs like marijuana banned in the whole world just because they had a domestic campaign against them. If the US wanted, they could very easily convince dozens of countries to introduce anti-crypto bills tomorrow, it's a really no-brainer thing to do for most governments because in their eyes they would sacrifice nothing and win a favor from the US.

For now this Infrastructure Bill seems like a purely domestic thing, but if they will attack Bitcoin from anti-ransomware or anti-terrorism angle, they can easily turn it into a global chain of anti-Bitcoin legislation.

That's true, but keep in mind that this is simply some restrictions and anti-privacy laws. We are not talking about a total ban. There is no reason why other countries should follow the same restrictions.

There is a huge difference between Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran. It is off-topic here but if US was capable of doing anything similar to those countries to Iran they would have done it already specially since the previous administration had the will and the excuse when on 8 January 2020 Iran openly demolished 2 of the biggest US based in Iraq (in retaliation for the assassination of the Iranian general) killing at least a dozen including a general plus injuring hundreds of US soldiers and inflicting a damage estimated to be in billions.

The reality is that US military has not been as strong as advertised for decades, they are only capable of fighting (and eventually losing to) Afghan shepherds who have a walking stick and an AK-47 to shoot at their planes or the already disarmed Iraq with basically no military.
I'm biased of course but according to statements of US military officials for years such as the most recent one from centcom commander Gen. McKenzi US doesn't even have air superiority against Iran, and that's just air. On the ground or at Persian Golf US ground forces or the navy doesn't even have anything to say.

Bro, what the hell are you smoking? Trillions? Trillions as in 25 000 F-16?
The whole Iraq war is estimated at 2.4 trillions, the US military budget is 800 billion and you claim twenty ballistic missiles can destroy stuff with trillions? And who is that general?


Yeah right, Iran has air superiority with 100 jets out of which half of them are US-built Phantoms and F-14s, you can't even call this biased, I'm sure even Ali Khamenei would choke laughing after trying to say that.


And most important, people don't deal in bars or ingots of metals because they are a pain in the ass to do so, and the government would not be interested in two or three guys and an industry worth a few hundred thousand. Despite being blamed for everything from KYC to freezing accounts and stealing coins and manipulation centralized exchanges have also allowed millions to get their coins easily, once people need to make one extra step to get their coins in a stealthy way or pay extra a lot of them will simply give up once(if) the law gets passed in such a restrictive way and from there, things have only downhill to go.

This bill spends $3.5 trillion. The new cryptocurrency provisions will raise, at most, $28 billion (while decimating the industry in the US). These provisions aren't about funding the bill, which will inevitably be funded by money printer going brrrrr, but rather about controlling bitcoin and spying on individuals.

The only reason these cryptocurrency provisions are still in this bill is because one Senator - Richard Shelby - continually blocked amendments to fix the bill unless everyone agree to another $50 billion for the military. I mean, we only spend $800 billion a year on the military already. I'm sure that extra $50 billion will make all the difference to Afghanistan, and definitely won't just line the pockets of the companies which pay for his campaigns. ::)

Yeah, agreed. I don't use centralized exchanges ever, and so a lot of these new rules and regulations won't make any difference to me whatsoever, but I'll still fight against them because they'll harm the wider bitcoin ecosystem significantly.

You're right! The situation with BTC can go, as always, not where everyone expects, so there is always the possibility of both price increases and their decline. As for the United States, you must understand that inside this country right now there is a struggle between the power of bankers and the power of digital people. There is a high probability that the latter will win this confrontation and when this happens, the price of BTC will fly to the moon. Therefore, the laws that are now being adopted in the United States can also easily be canceled when other forces come to power. Nevertheless, I believe that it is necessary to monitor more the situation in the crypto market itself, and not on the applicable laws.

I may be wrong, but it seems to me that what the US is trying to do is not the final solution, but only the first step towards putting cryptocurrencies in a very tight regulatory framework where they will be able to fully control them. Of course, at the moment we can't talk about a complete ban the way China did, but when it comes to protecting national interests, the US and China are not as different as they seem at first glance.

In terms of influence over other countries, the US has very strong mechanisms to literally force others to support their interests - so as we consider the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as a prime example of friendly persuasion, Denmark lost 43 troops, Poland 40, Spain 34 and so on, more than 1100 soldiers were killed for nothing, just because the US wanted to play war.

Therefore, I think that the US will influence other countries in terms of cryptocurrencies, and that the majority will choose cooperation instead of opposing - in addition, the EU has already announced something similar (https://www.reuters.com/technology/eu-tighten-rules-cryptoasset-transfers-2021-07-20/) that should take effect 2024/25.

LOL. Sorry that was a mistake (it was billions). Fixed it.

I don't know his name, he was the ranking official who were in the command and communication center of Al Asad base, ie. the first target that was hit. If I recall correctly the news covered it up by saying he died of a "heart attack in US" in a day or so after the attack, whereas he was deployed in Iraq.

Well, manned planes became obsolete years ago. The new wars are fought using drones with the pilot sitting far away in safety capable of controlling faster and more effective planes that are a lot cheaper to mass produce.
Iran's UAV (and generally drones that include unmanned submarines) program is not only advanced but it has a lot of diversity. The strategy is also to overwhelm with lowest cost but highest efficiency which has proven to be the most effective for defense. All domestically built.
Air superiority is also not just about what kind of expensive planes you have (specifically for attacker not the defender) but about how effective those attacking planes are against air defense systems. For example USAF tested¹ this on different occasions in 2019 by invading Iran's airspace at least 3 times (cases that are publicly known, I'm sure there were more); one was with F35 and the other two used stealth drones, F35 ($78 million) was quickly detected, locked on and warned; 1 drone shot down ($220 million) and the accompanying plane ($3.6 billion with a crew of 35) was warned, and another drone hacked and captured (IIRC it was a "cheap" $100 mil drone). The cost for Iran was ~$50k.

1. They have to test it because Iran doesn't buy anything from anywhere, everything is researched and developed domestically. So nobody knows the true capabilities and what hasn't been shown yet. At the same time this is one of the reasons why Iran has been able to advance so much and also why these defense systems don't suck...

Bro, seriously get those numbers right!  ;D ;D
You just made a drone more expensive than an F35 and a plane to cost 4 times more than a B2.
The most advanced drone the US has is the RQ170 and that goes below 10 million.

Besides those are war scenarios, the US will not send 3 fighters and a drone, it will send 1000 tomahawks missiles that will turn anything that sends a signal into a pile of scrap, just how they've launched the Iraq invasion. I remember well those times, they will fail, us army sucks, same thing when they bombarded Serbia, Serbia is the new Vietnam, the Serbs are fearless etc we both know the outcome of those two.

That said the entire bombing of 90 days caused 20 billion in damage and that so-called attack Iran made caused 10% of this?  :D
I'm telling you even the propaganda chiefs in Teheran would smile seeing these numbers.


Well, the guys on flight 752 have learned the "true" capabilities of Iranian weapons and radars.

But seriously now, we have arrived at the point where the growth from the Western countries will be replaced by Iran, Venezuela and Toga?
You see people who have put an extra tax on both license and power on bitcoin mining, who are confiscated mining gear, who are jailing people for their beliefs as the fuel needed for growth? Iran that has a GDP below Virginia will sustain this growth?

Instead of Microstrategy and Grayscale, we will have Mostazafan Foundation?

And it's not even a case of others following the US. China is way ahead of this, India is also pretty far away, do you think there are that many countries that even matter on a global scale that are more crypto-friendly than the US? Even Europe has cases with worse taxation than the US, what do you think a socialist party that has just grabbed power in Germany will do if they see this, let's not tax the shit out of it, let's just stick to seizing houses in Berlin!?!

Well I'm not an expert I just google these things and it tells me that RQ-4A Global Hawk costs approximately $220 million (https://www.google.com/search?q=how+much+does+RQ-4A+Global+Hawk+cost) and a Boeing P-8 Poseidon cost with all the equipment onboard is estimated at $3.6 billion (https://www.google.com/search?q=how+much+does+Boeing+P-8+Poseidon+cost). It is possible I made another mistake reading the numbers but they are indeed most expensive than the useless F35. I already told you manned planes are obsolete.
Why did you think US military budget is so big? The tax payers money is wasted on these toys ;D

BTW RQ170 is very old and the case of hacking and safely capturing it is also 11 years old.

That's true. War is a complicated thing and I don't claim to be an expert. Although it feels like you are getting a little emotional here.

Correction: they launched invasion of already disarmed Iraq.

Well that was 90 days of (inaccurate) bombing of cities killing a lot of civilians and this was only 13 precise missiles hitting designated targets to maximize damage. Seems like you are comparing apples and oranges here.

No, and I didn't say that. I just pointed out the migration of miners from a country that started cracking down on miners (China) to other places and I used Iran as example because I know that for a fact while I have no solid data about other regions.

Again...bro..wtf



Of course, 3 civilian airports, 2 military airports, one television headquarters, 4 bridges over the Danube, other 30 bridges and railway networks, 4 electric powerplants,  20 000 homes, 40 hospitals, and one Chinese embassy are of course not worth as much 2 hangars and a helicopter.
More than apples and oranges this is a thing of grains of sand and the sun.


A really bad example:
https://cryptonews.net/en/news/mining/1654451/

Us miners have orders for 60 Exa of gear, where do you think and who do you think will be able to power them at 3 cents per kwh?
Not Iran, not Venezuela, and not any country in Europe. Again, like it or not but without the US we're f***!

Still $450 million is a lot bigger than $78 million.

16,574 rials is roughly $0.06 not $0.39
As for the seized miners, all those miners were stealing electricity to mine bitcoin. So I'm confused why you even brought this up here, I don't know anywhere in the world that robbery is legal!

It's 0.3943809, trust me.
https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=16574&From=IRR&To=USD


No, it's not robbery as you put it.

In Iran, you have to get a special mining permit from the government, only 30 such have been given, if you're not doing that and you don't pay your extra tax and licenses you can't mine. So these guys were not stealing, we're just using electricity at their own rates. So if you plugged an S9 in your house and mine, is it robbery in your country? I guess not. And I mentioned this exactly to show you how the world outside the US looks like, if you think any kind of growth will come from places like this you're deeply mistaken. Now, will these countries be open to a free market and free commerce to even make large companies think of moving there? No!

Of course, there is only one way to definitely prove to you that the US has enormous power when it comes to Bitcoin, but I would rather admit being wrong than seeing it happen.

This US Infrastructure Bill was to be presented at 27 September , so what was the proposed bill ?  I think there is no bad thing decided about crypto therefore the market is stable and did not fall. I would like to know what they talked about crypto in particular in that bill.

After reading it and the over 2000 pages of BS that it contained there are quite a few worrisome issues that are created with the term brokers and how loosely they are defined. The only saving grace is there will likely be clarifying guidance as to who is considered brokers but only after the bill is passed. This still leaves quite a bit of unknowns and is worrisome for pool operators or large-scale miners. However, for the small guys, it shouldn't be that bad as you will still need to process over $10,000 in transactions to be considered a "broker" the way it's currently written.

Contact your state rep and ask them to consider this amendment with the bill


AUGUST 04, 2021
https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/minority/toomey-wyden-lummis-amendment-would-clarify-digital-asset-reporting-requirements

"Toomey, Wyden, Lummis Amendment Would Clarify Digital Asset Reporting Requirements
Washington, D.C. – U.S. Senate Banking Committee Ranking Member Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), and Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) today filed an amendment clarifying the definition of “broker” with respect to digital asset third-party reporting requirements.

The senators’ amendment would clarify that “brokers” mean only those persons who conduct transactions on exchanges where consumers buy, sell and trade digital assets, and does not require information reporting from persons who engage in mining or staking, selling hardware or software that an individual may use to control a private key, or developing digital assets or their corresponding protocols for use by other persons if such other persons are not customers."

Just because a website says $0.39 it doesn't make it right.
1 USD is 270,000 IRR not 42,000 IRR. You see dollar has multiple prices in Iran. The later is a special exchange rate that the government is giving to those who want to import certain goods such as medicine, food, etc in order to keep the price of these things down. The former is the actual rate at which USD is exchanged in open market that affects everything else including the electricity price.

That is for mining farms not for individual miners at home even though they have been trying to tax those too. There are also more than 30 issued already.

Yes they were stealing.
In some cases they were literary stealing electricity by bypassing the electric meter and creating a direct connection to the main wire and weren't paying a single penny.
In other cases they were using the electricity rate given to them for another industry to mine bitcoin. You see similar to dollar exchange rates I mentioned above there are also certain other "government aids" to different industries. One of these aids is favorable electricity rate. But that rate is only given to be used for that pre-defined purpose and if it is used for anything else (including but not limited to mining bitcoin) it is against the law since it is breaking the contract.

No it is not illegal to do it in Iran and many are already doing it. However, the cases I explained above are robbery.

You are putting words in my mouth. I never said large companies are going to move there I just pointed out that a lot of hashrate has been going there, the large companies will move elsewhere.
FYI based on the recent shipment of ASICs and the previous information the hashrate is reaching 10%, so yeah this kind of growth is already happening.

Yeah?



Again, wrong!
https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/460951/Cryptocurrency-mining-using-household-electricity-to-face-heavy


The difficulty is at 19T 5% below October (the end of the rainy season in China) numbers when the price was at 10k, so rather than the growth it is not even catching up, and you don't need the FYI, I'm a miner so I'm pretty up to date with mining-related stuff ;)

Nevertheless, I can't understand how you can lash out at the US who has been fueling all this growth just because they would possibly require licenses while at the same time clapping your hand in admiration for regimes like Iran in Venezuela who have taken far stricter stances at crypto.
I don't know what the US has done to you but a small one-month stay in all those countries you've counted there would clarify a lot of things.
Don't forget to not pack you jeans if you go to Iran, the country of freedom and the next Bitcoinia!

"Those" is plural and I already mentioned a bunch of countries with a "..." at the end but you keep focusing on one!
Besides, although companies moving their HQ outside of US due to regulations is not a common thing but it has happened many times in the history. If you stop focusing on the destination you'll see that what I said is true.

Again, not everything you read on the internet is the whole truth. If you like to know the situation send me a PM.

The hashrate has been growing for a while, also part of the growth is because of "migration" of miners which means the total hashrate doesn't change.

Well in my 30 years and experiencing different countries first hand or second hand, I have learned that the sky is the same shade of grey everywhere. It's naive to think otherwise.

Agreeing with the above 100%
Adding: connect with policy makers who are at least attempting to be cryptocurrency/tech literate.

US banning Bitcoin outright would send the entire crypto industry into turmoil and would permanently disrupt the market. They wouldn't need to coordinate with any other country, they would follow along like dominos before coercion is necessary. Some smaller APAC and SA countries that maintain autonomy over their own economy and aren't beholden to the US would be okay, but how much do they really contribute to the world economy? Not much.

That's the problem though. The number of Reps or Senators who are attempting to be crypto literate can be counted on one hand, and are vastly out-numbered and out-voted by those who don't care. Given that most receive tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars from various fiat dependent banks, business, companies, etc., then there is no incentive for them to challenge the status quo. The only thing vaguely comparable to these huge centralized fiat lobbying platforms and companies for bitcoin are centralized exchanges, and I've not seen a single one step up in any meaningful way and commit to spending even a tiny fraction of their profits to help promote bitcoin or educate lawmakers.

We can contact House Reps and Senators all day long (and everybody should!), but the sad fact is most will ignore us because our concerns don't come backed with money.

I have a bunch of 2013-2015 regulatory meeting links saved on an old hard drive, when I fire it up again I'll try to put the lot of them in a post--> maybe in Legal since it'd probably get drowned out in P&S. I'm accustomed to belonging to things like associations and chambers of commerce, where your collective ideas regarding those respective interests are represented. I don't belong to any of the current digital chambers but get emails from some, couldn't speak to their effectiveness in policy making.
Most of the time when policy is being discussed it is in the framework of "consumer protection" and taxation which is kind of sucky for those who know that using it as peer to peer cash doesn't need ANY government oversight.
Jared Polis ( current Colorado governor) is how I came across the proposed amendment. And I spend way too much time reading through policy on the .gov sites