Bitcoin Forum

Speculation in my opinion is a possibility-oriented thought or opinion whose facts are still very likely not in accordance with what is thought. Speculation is something that is weak in nature to be used as a basis for why someone buys or sells bitcoin. Whereas prediction in my opinion is something that is oriented to past data which allows traders to buy and sell their bitcoin with much better probability than speculation. The two things above are always shown to us by bitcoin traders and investors as long as the price goes up, down, and sideways.

So my question is, can speculation and prediction affect price?

It would be great to hear your opinion on my question. Teach me more things.

Of course it can, this is why we have FOMO and FUD, a person that actually goes through the trouble of generating their own signals and predicting what the market could do or not is not going to be as affected by the news and speculation they hear and read on specialized websites or in social media.

However a person that relies on external signals will take actions based entirely on what they hear and read, and this can have a huge effect on the market as there are a great deal of traders which are not using their own strategy and instead trade following the signals of others or they trade intuitively.

Remember that we're in a speculative market and bitcoin is a speculative asset so it's a yes for both of them. Take the example of a very powerful person in the world that says something about his prediction or speculation about bitcoin, negatively and positively.
You'll get to see the market will react as quick as it can because we saw that happened in many influential personalities and that made them believed that they're powerful enough to move the market and they are still doing it to date.

Both have a role in influencing prices, because speculation and prediction also create a stimulus to those who receive it. Then produce a variety of decisions to buy and sell. This is a benchmark that market prices are often influenced when generating hype, Fud and Fomo which randomly spread to several traders and investors.

Simply speaking, demand and supply are the ones that actually drive the price, and demand has a lot of factors that can influence it, speculations and predictions are just two of them, simple as that. Though I don't think it actually influences it directly, it does affect at some point the demand of users since they'd believe their speculations and predictions (or of others) at some point in time. It's also why people with a huge influence can affect the market, albeit on the short term.

Speculation and predictions for sure come with their own technical analysis.
I am more in favor with my own explanation and technical analysis, and especially comparing previous price actions of Bitcoin to have speculation and prediction. I don't think so if it will affect the price of Bitcoin unless they will manipulate the media, like sharing some predictions/speculations to the public.

i think prediction CANNOT have any real effect on bitcoin price. it's like an oxymoron at least to me.
however prediction change value in a ponzi ad not something that is real traded.

Speculation yes of course this has been in the past a main reason price moved up/down also with strong volatility intra-day.
I think this is something that will have a minor impact since more and more people are accepting/using BTC

Prediction / Speculation = issue.
When Elon Musk comments positively about Bitcoin, surprisingly the price of Bitcoin will increase in a matter of hours. The same thing also happened to Dogecoin some time ago. Issues made by public figures or countries that do not accept cryptocurrencies have a huge impact on the movement of crypto assets, especially Bitcoin.
Due to the limited marketability of bitcoin, the price will be very volatile, buyers entering and leaving the market can significantly affect the supply-demand balance.
Of course, Musk and China predictions / speculations are a factor in the unstable movement of cryptocurrency.

Interestingly, prediction and speculation at some point can affect the demand and supply of bitcoins in the market so that volatility cannot be prevented. Public figures ^{[big investors]} have entered the bitcoin realm carrying piles of money in their suitcases so they can easily create hype that speculator then use to forecast potential future price. I don't really believe in speculation, but I am interested in prediction accompanied by analysis. Actually I also can't 100% believe / not that speculation and prediction can affect the price of bitcoin because without other supporting factors, I think the two things above might not have much effect.

The results of the temporary voting, 3 out of 7 of you have made their choice in the polling. Are you not interested in being my variable?

Speculation and prediction are quite the same thing to me, or maybe I would say that speculation is as a result of a prediction; when a price prediction is made and people lay hands on that to start speculating on what would be the next possible outcome. Of course this can have an effect on the market, and it is more likely when the coin that’s being said is a coin with a small market cap.

For something like Bitcoin, it is going to be a really difficult for any of these to affect it because Bitcoin already has a really huge market cap, so even if they do have any effect it is not going to be that much, but little.

Speculation and prediction can really affect the price of any crypto because people will base on that before they invest.

If a celebrity speculate the price of Bitcoin, expect for the FOMO and the HYPE will be created so this speculations good or bad can really affect the market itself. I personally read some speculations and do my own analysis to confirm it before buying.

Price of Bitcoin increases when its rewards for each block halved and when more people have demand on Bitcoin.

Each halving year, we have both: block rewards halved make noise and people pay more attention to Bitcoin. Later, more demand on Bitcoin and if you notice, each halving, Bitcoin makes new all time high and increase its acceptance on Earth.

2017 Bitcoin Futures, 2021 Bitcoin ETF.

It can. But not at the levels many expect. And it's not working always.
But certain public figures' speculation/prediction may have meanings (or may just be interpreted) that can signal a trend. By/for some. And not always.
Was I vague enough? ;D

The weight of each prediction is different based on the level of audience a person has, we read predictions and all kind of speculations about what the price will do here in the forum and I doubt it has too much of an effect on the market as those users do not have followers that believe their every word.


However when a person or a news outlet which have a lot of influence makes a prediction then the price can move in a matter of minutes as people react to it and decide to take action before the rest of the market does, creating a chain reaction as other people are thinking the same and this creates a movement in the market that would not have been possible otherwise.

No, it looks like you really care about some influencers so far. They are having fun with their money while traders are taking advantage of the opportunities that are present to take profit. I think I understand what you mean.   :D

Seems like a lot of people are not interested in voting and also posting in this thread. For 6 days there were only 4 votes, that's not at all a good show of interest in the thread. Lock now.