Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin => Mining => Topic started by: 3Characs on November 09, 2021, 11:18:38 AM



Title: China banning mining and the power crisis
Post by: 3Characs on November 09, 2021, 11:18:38 AM
So i was wondering...

Could the Chinese mining ban be something done on purpose to prevent the BTC hash rate from dropping significantly?
(As far as I know the mining ban happened just a bit before the power crisis started in China).
It wouldn't be too crazy to think they banned mining on purpose to prevent a collapse in hash rate which would show that the chinese government cares about / is invested in BTC.)
These are just my thoughts but I'd like to hear what u guys think.

Could this be a possibility? Do you have arguments why this is absolutely NOT the reason?


Title: Re: China banning mining and the power crisis
Post by: kano on November 09, 2021, 12:00:44 PM
Um, you should probably look at what actually happened.
Was there a reason you made this post?

The hash rate did drop ...
2021-05-13 08:55:45.132+00 25046487590083.3 = 25T
2021-07-17 23:32:17.142+00 13672594272814.1 = 13.7T

So a total 45.4% drop over ~2 months

So how can you say they were preventing a hash rate drop ... by causing a hash rate drop?


Title: Re: China banning mining and the power crisis
Post by: 3Characs on November 09, 2021, 12:12:43 PM
Um, you should probably look at what actually happened.
Was there a reason you made this post?

The hash rate did drop ...
2021-05-13 08:55:45.132+00 25046487590083.3 = 25T
2021-07-17 23:32:17.142+00 13672594272814.1 = 13.7T

So a total 45.4% drop over ~2 months

So how can you say they were preventing a hash rate drop ... by causing a hash rate drop?

I understand what you are saying, and I get that it's not really logical, but what effect would it have if it was directly caused by an energy shortage (where the plug could've been pulled immediately) instead of the ban declining the hash-rate in 2 months where miners had the possibility to relocate themselves?

I'm not saying this is the case, but I was just wondering if there was a relation between the BTC Mining costs in electricity and the power crisis in China. Hence why I posted this thread.



Title: Re: China banning mining and the power crisis
Post by: kano on November 09, 2021, 01:09:53 PM
Nope, doing it gradually just extends the uncertainty, so the gradual drop was them making it worse.

A 45.4% drop, with the longest delay affect, on the first block of a diff change, would simply mean the diff change would take 25.6 days,
instead of the 14 days of a no hash rate change.


Title: Re: China banning mining and the power crisis
Post by: 3Characs on November 09, 2021, 02:07:08 PM
I never thought about it like that, I'll probably read more about how mining works in order to get a better picture of this. Thank you for the clarification!