Bitcoin Forum

At least in the last almost 8 months I have been monitoring the increase in bitcoin circulation, which is currently almost 19 million bitcoin out of a total supply of 21 million. As of March 19, 2021, there were 18,658,093 bitcoin in circulation, but today I see that it continues to increase to 18,869,337 bitcoin. There are a total of 211,244 bitcoin in circulation as of March 19, 2021.


I think this increase tells us that many holders have either issued their old bitcoin for sale or that there is an increase in the number of old wallet being recovered. In your opinion, does this increase in circulation have a positive impact on bitcoin or is this a sign that many holders will sell their bitcoin?

https://blockchain.info/q/totalbc at 10-11-2021

If people pull out now, it's not a bad time at all. Whether it's good or bad will be reflected in the price (and potentially immediately quite soon too).

The current bull run shares similarities with the last in its price fluctuation so far, it might also be possible people are hoping to move funds to an exchange to put a sell at their desired target and then forget about their coins until it reaches that price.

There's the other possibility that coins are just moving hands and potentially moving to different investors. If someone buys now then they'll probably expect a decent return anyway (and consider that they won't have to wait too long for it) - this is a reflection of an opinion of how I think some people end up trading this market it doesn't make sense to hold bitcoin in a year like 2018 if you're just after quick returns.

On what circulation do you refer to? On the network's circulation, which increases by 6.25 BTC every 10 minutes or on the market's circulation which is the total bitcoins available for sale at the moment? Judging your post, I understand it's the former, but then I see this:


Which makes no sense. It doesn't matter how many people hold their coins. Every 10 minutes, the circulation of the total bitcoins that can ever exist increases whether there are holders or not.

This is the total number of Bitcoin mined until this very moment, not the number of bitcoin "actively circulating".
I think that there's a misunderstanding somewhere. Of course that the number is increasing, it grows by 6.25BTC/block ...


I think that you've got tricked...

bitcoin circulation is fixed release supply. set amounts per block.
peoples usage or choices do not affect this.

there is a separate statistic (bitcoin rich list) that shows the amount of coins held in large wallets
these wallet belong to exchanges.
and the % of coin in these large wallets compared to % in small wallets can kind of reveal how much coin is in the MARKET
coins held by exchanges do affect the price and mindset of peoples decision to buy or sell
however the other 18mill coins loose in random wallets do not affect the markets

You got it all wrong.

When you look at coinmarketcap circulation supply, you will see the total amount of coins that exist. This is not related to the number of coins being sold in exchanges.

https://i.imgur.com/OLhu5hS.png

As bitcoin blocks are being created every ~10minutes, the supply will always increase by about 6.25 BTC per 10 minutes, just like NeuroticFish said.

You can read more about this here:

https://support.coinmarketcap.com/hc/en-us/articles/360043396252-Supply-Circulating-Total-Max-

LOL, did I make a mistake here, but really didn't mean to.  ;)

Sorry if my assumption about bitcoin circulating is wrong according to your understanding. I just think that there are million of bitcoin stored in wallet that are currently inactive due to user error or the owner has died will no longer be in circulating so the total of 21 million bitcoin will no longer arrive. I mean some wallet may have been reactivated because they have been restored by their owners and that has increased the supply currently circulating both in the market and in the community. I just want to know what you think about it, can it affect the bitcoin market?

What's the consensus criteria for circulating coins? This will always be an estimation, and probably a rather inaccurate one. After all, coins that were burned or lost yesterday might appear to be circulating or a Bitcoin holder which has been holding for 5+ years without sending any transactions might be deemed circulated coins. 

I think what can be said, is most people overestimate the amount of coins which have been lost, since people tend to get the definition of lost confused.

Mamy of people have losted there wallets in previous years but after bitcoin got fam they have restored there wallets and many of people died and there wallets are closed and some of wallets are restored by the guardian of died man. This is the reason the circulation of Bitcoin is increased.

Bitcoin wasn't made to be hodl by any investor, its a currency and like a currency, its made to be used as a medium of exchange for goods and other services. Due to the scare nature of bitcoin as a limited commodity, it has apportioned itself another use that puts it seem worth higher than fiat currency. Mind you, fiat currency are printed occasionally as the need applies by the central banks of nations but bitcoin or cryptos is nothing like that, it's limited in supply and as such, it fits in for an investment which adds more value to it. Its a thing that isn't going to change but then, its not a disadvantage but a plus and having much in circulation won't do anything to its scare nature. The total supply solves it all.

There you have it right.
Bitcoin cannot complete the 21m in circulation actively. Currently some of the articles and speculations said that there are 20% of mined Bitcoin that has been lost in the circulation. That comes from several reasons like death, lost password, locked away in an old wallet without any access to it.
I mean 20% that's a lot.

Now, If you ask me about those assumed to be lost Bitcoin that finds it's way back to the circulation, well that's a good thing for the market. Because those Bitcoin could finally be used for transactions and not only being stored for more years.
Using Bitcoin as a currency could help the price to grow even more bigger. I know a lot of us are just holding it lol.

21 Million total supply is what's in most people's mind when they buy anyway so I don't think it would affect them that much if they found out it's less than that. There's also a fear among investors when a huge amount of BTC is transferred from an old wallet but the market effect is only temporary.

The word "Circulating" is being used incorrectly. Not every Bitcoin which has been
mined to date is in circulation. Some are lost, some are not accessable and some
are in long term storage. Really the only amount of circulating supply are more
or less the ones on exchanges and in users wallets which are accessed every day.
How many coins is difficult to say.


Does this circulating supply affect the market? I would say only when large amounts
enter the market. Large quantities of Bitcoin which were previously not in circulation
but in long term storage are moved out of a wallet to an exchange can signal  that
a whale is about to sell those which can prompt weak hands to sell before the market
reacts to a possible big sell off.

You're probably referring to those coins which are literally circulating or changing hands. There are, of course, millions in Bitcoin that strictly form part of the overall circulating supply but are actually stuck in wallets for years or even more than a decade. In other words, not really circulating in its strict sense.

Anyway, as to the effect of these old sleeping coins suddenly waking up, it will have an effect to the market if they are put for sale. The degree of the effect will, of course, depend on the quantity of these coins. But if they're just moving from one wallet to another, the market wouldn't be in any way affected.

Incidentally, just hours ago, Whale Alert has tracked a dormant address suddenly becoming active again after 8.1 years.

https://i.imgur.com/bKV3heY.png
https://twitter.com/whale_alert/status/1458503809240604673

According to the HODL Waves ^[1], you can get it from Glassnode academy ^[2], there is about 4M Bitcoin was likely lost. It is just assumption but we do know not all of inactive UTXOs are from lost Bitcoin. Some of them are not lost and will be moved at the right time of market.

They can be suddenly recovered and moved or simply moved to create news on the market.

Glassnode has a report Follow the smart money (https://insights.glassnode.com/follow-the-smart-money/) in which we can see some on-chain indicators that this bull run has yet topped up.

[1] https://unchained.com/hodlwaves/
[2] https://academy.glassnode.com/supply/hodl/hodl-waves

The circulating supply means the number of coins that are in the market or in the general public's hand; Yes it may seem like it is out for sale, but I don’t really think that an increase in the circulating supply means people want to sell their coins, and who would like to be selling their coins at a time like this?

The market has been growing bigger every day and crossing its last all time high price almost every month, so I don’t think that anybody would like to try to sell their coins right now. There are lots of people who are selling and buying everyday, I’m just saying that it's not like you're making it to seem that most people want to sell off their coins, you know, in a way that it will get the market to start plummeting again. Majority would prefer to hold their coins right now.

Even if they are out for sale, what would the OGs gain by selling off completely. Bitcoin is becoming the collateral, the guarantee and the bond backing for the whole crypto economy. Everyone who has a huge amount of Bitcoin can have much more clout by simply choosing to move it around into projects of their choosing. its not just the influence but the returns are decent too.

I don't think anybody with that sort of generational wealth will squander that, considering they were anyways smarter than the rest of us, being early in BTC and all. The point isn't whether they will sell, the point is whether they will diversify and weaponize their holdings.

Unfortunately, do we even know who these whales are and what do they do? Who ca say that they don't already have traditional money managers managing their wealth, not worried about when to sell.

You are referring to the flow of bitcoin in the market (that's quite different from circulation). I guess there are a few old HODLers who are transferring their bitcoin from their old address to exchanges; I have seen a few txs in whalealert but haven't put close eyes. That would definitely affect the market if the number of bitcoin flow increases. But that will not be huge. Few months back, we have seen market to get crashed for an inactive address getting active but that's not going to happen anymore unless it's satoshi's address.

Actually I'm not worried how many previously lost bitcoin can be recovered by their owners and will enter circulation, but since ATH has recently re-formed, I think it will have an effect on the price to some degree. The market will be very influential quickly just because of the news that spread and I don't expect wallet with a sizable amount of bitcoin to be active again in the future because people are worried about satoshi wallet.

Sorry about all this confusion (probably), but that's not what I meant. Locking this thread to prevent further confusion and misunderstanding. LOL, sorry.