Bitcoin Forum

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Just saw this tweet and am now just wondering why aren't the laws of supply and demand kicking in if 90% of the bitcoins are almost mined ?

Shouldn't the bitcoin markets be bullish by now as demand would be high by now and supply is reaching a point where it can no longer grow?

Hasn't supply been throttled for a while already?

No one really invested in bitcoin buys it to immediately sell it on (or potentially sell it soon). Bitcoins inflation is still higher than the euro and the pound has been in recent years (with bitcoin being around 1.7% still - this was from some rough working out it might not be accurate).

The market can't be bullish just because the supply is low.Something must trigger an increase in the demand.
Demand isn't determined by the supply.Demand is determined by the future expectations/greed and a bunch of short term factors,like bullish news,FUD and panic selling.
The Bitcoin supply is limited by all the BTC that were lost during the years and the army of HODLers,who are expecting a better price to sell.Bitcoin mining isn't a big factor,which can determine the BTC supply.It used to be years ago,but now,it doesn't matter that much.

90% in the period from 2009 until today is about 12 years, it did not happen overnight. In addition, there are 2+ million BTCs left to be mined, and 99% will be mined in less than 10 years, which will certainly have an impact on the market if there is still demand.

The fact is that there is still no shortage in the market when it comes to Bitcoin, whether it is an open market or through OTC. Anyone serious who wants to invest in BTC can buy 50 000 or 100 000 BTC without major problems, the only factor is the time it will take for orders to be processed in a way that does not affect the price too much. You look at the numbers, but you don't see the bigger picture - there are still more who want to sell than buy.

Bitcoin isn't an essential stuff so we can't bank on the fact that the demand will always be consistent not to mention that without this red days in the market, I think that we will eventually make the prices so premium that it's going to be difficult for newbies to get in.

It's not exactly fresh news, anyone who looked at Bitcoin distribution chart could have noticed that it will approach that number around this time. You could know it 1 year ago or 5 years ago or 10 years ago. The reason why Bitcoin is so high is because everyone knew about the slow down and eventual stop of emission, so they were accumulating while it's low. So, it has always been priced in.

with 90% is mined meaning only 10% left. then 'supply/demand' basic math would be 10x of the price of when the first coin was mined.
because there is 10X less supply left to be produced.

the price however is over 400,000x the price of 2009. .. so i think the laws of supply demand are working.

i wont go into the finer details that the market price, is only established by the current price of one market order lines offering of under 1btc at any one time. and not the entire coins ever made.
nor that the supply/demand that affects the market price of the top orderline is limited to only the colection of orderlines of what exchanges have on deposit, rather than the entire coins created.
put simply market prices are established by the supply of the market(exchange) not by the entire networks coins

but just be thankful that the price is over 400,000x more then the price in 2009

Honestly, it's difficult to get it right now for some investors who wanted to join the trend today but if they are lucky enough to think that instead of going one time, what if they just cut their spending on some leisure and put the money on bitcoins one at a time no matter how much the price is. The price will eventually be back to its ATH in the future or probably break a new record and by that time they are already in the market with their investment.

Because despite the sensationalist title nothing really extraordinary will happen.
There are 900 coins mined each day and there will be 900 after this week and after this month passes till the next halving, there is nothing amazing that will make the supply ration change radically, the only thing that can change is demand and that once can't be anticipated by anybody.

Oh, and to understand how ridiculously low the change is, exactly one year ago, 88.38% of the coins were mined.

Also, from a different perspective, there are 900 coins mined each day at a value of $45 million, one year ago the daily reward was $17 million, and five years ago just $ 1.5 million so in fiat terms, the daily offer has increased 3 times in the last year.

I feel lucky that I was into that 90%. Let's go now, 118 years left for the rest 10% to finish!

That would be true if the demand remained the same since 2009. Generally, you can make an assumption from that law only in the short run. In the long run, the demand cannot be considered fixed.

I agree with you that this would be your initial thought, but I think Bitcoin is still in the phase of getting going and this lack of supply will eventually be realized by a surge in demand as time goes on. So I think personally we are still just a bit early on the game.

a market price is decided by the coins IN THE EXCHANGE
most exchanges have like 700k coins. 3.3% of all coins.

all prices are about the 3% . the other 87% of all possible coins are hoarded in cold store by private individuals and do not affect the market price at all

Zoom out when you look at the charts and you will see that markets are very bullish long term, but there are many factors that affect price and it's not just programed Bitcoin supply.
In 2019 it was 85% Bitcoin mined that is not such a big difference, and we have around 100 years until last bitcoin is mined, so just relax and watch the show.

Next Bitcoin halving should happen in Q1 of 2024 and that is one more important indicator that is affecting the price, but even without that we have crazy fiat money printing machine, so I am not worried at all about current BTC price.

The quantity supplied does not have a significant impact, except in short periods and in a limited manner, unless the currency is very centralized, for example, many alternative currencies have trillions of the quantity supplied and others only a few thousand, however, we cannot compare it to Bitcoin.

Therefore, demand is the decisive factor in the long run, which is the reason for the rise of Bitcoin, as it is increasing and from all over the world, and the quantity supplied is accelerating these increases.

That's one way of addressing the issue of having problems on where to get your money for investment but the problem is that even if they were to abandon expenditure on leisure and luxury stuff, it might not be enough to make a significant amount of bitcoin when you're buying it again.

This is actually a slightly technical answer for most people and may take a few minutes to understand. I'm just wondering what will happen when all the bitcoin are mined and that relates to some people's concerns right now. I personally don't really care about price fluctuation as this is basically a normal situation for volatile assets like bitcoin.