Bitcoin Forum

I told many that charts can be deceiving at times but many don't believe me, some even go and bring out 2017 bull chart and start comparing to 2021 charts so now tell me are the charts still the same? Whatever is going to happen in this December still lies in mystery 🤣😂🤣, things will never work the same way as the past

The charts are different from both years but there goes the saying about 'cycles' and that's why you see speculations and analyses that are including the past year's chart.
It is okay if we don't know what will happen by the end of this year and we're already near to it. We're going to see if it will be as good as last year and will be continuing the bull run that it has started.

Right.. People comparing the past without knowing that  market sometimes fails to repeat the history itself, probably good traders knows abou that. Wherein even though there's always an accurate pattern or structure that always exists in the graph it still not a good reason to rely in it because the fact that market isn't perfect it can always cause losses after all.

I have never been a big friend of all that trend analysis stuff. I saw video of a crypto influencer a week ago or so where he predicted that Bitcoin will make a breakout in the next few days because in the chart analysis you can see that... and then the next day BTC dropped from 57k$ to 47k$  :D. So yes maybe you can predict something sometimes from chart patterns that happen a lot of times but as you already said, just because the chart behaved that way a few months or years ago it doesn't necessarily mean that the chart will behave exactly like that in the future. In the end i think the market is almost impossible to predict.

If you don't have inner knowledge, it is impossible without the almost. I have always had the suspicion that TA is like the horoscope, and since I read Taleb's Black Swan, that suspicion has turned into conviction. But don't say it loud, you will make a lot of enemies here who are "experts in trading" (who not? everything has gone nuts since the beginning of crypto, so chances of making money are high).

I couldn't agree more. There was that first dip around November 25th and many of the analysts I was reading were talking about the market just correcting itself, and things were still bullish, and one guy compared that dip to one from a previous year when the price jumped right back up. Then the market took it's second big dive on like November 28th and suddenly some of the same analysts are second guessing themselves while others are still trying to compare this chart to some other one from a previous year. Honestly, I'm starting to get a little sick of it lol.. I know history repeats itself and indicators do have lots of accuracy, but in the end you just never know what the market is going to do. At this point, in some of the articles I read analysts now say it could be like this at least into early 2022 (just basically consolidation between like $44k and $52k) and very few are still saying the bulls could come back (these are FXStreet articles, Cointelegraph articles, Twitter users..etc). Of course, things can happen when you least expect them. Look at NFL games - everyone bets on Tom Brady to cover the spread against the worst team in the league and that will be one of the few weekends out of the year his team won't cover  ;D

2017 and 2021, things are much different, graphic factors, movement, analysis, predictions have been discussed very often here, the meaning of the word everyone is aware, crypto moves and retreats based on investors/whales and sellers/buyers.

2017, investors/whales, didn't know much about crypto, so they swallowed all the coins in the crypto market, coins at that time could be counted on the fingers.
2021, investors/whales, busy making their own coins, so not interested in other coins, they are busy pushing their own coins, so don't expect Altcoins this december, which is expected to be like 2017.

Different from Bitcoin, it's a single crypto, all investors/whales plant seeds there, to be developed into private coins.

Charts aren't crystal balls that will predict the future.
In crypto market, there are no such things as certainties but only probabilities. What happened last 2017 might happen this year or it might not.

The point here is we are just basing our analysis on its price movement in the past but the reality is we don't what "exactly" will happen in the future and nobody knows. Many are expecting that this month will be more bullish on Bitcoin but it seems that it didn't happen. I disagree though with what you said that it will never work the same way as the past. I think the correct phrase for that is it might work the same or it might not :).

Graphs are very difficult to predict how they will run, whether they will go up or down it is very difficult to provide a truly accurate explanation of well-made speculations.
But on the other hand, if you look at history, there are certain cycles that can be used as a reference because things like this keep repeating themselves.
regardless of what happened no one knows but for the past few years the cycle has always been the same

Technical analysis uses previous data or available data in order to predict the market this will includes the 2017 bull chart market and you can do anything about it since that's how technical analysis works. You look for existing data > compare it or make analysis out of it and that's all it's either right or wrong, sometimes it works and sometimes not so it's not for you to tell if it will work out differently or not.

The opposite of expectations has always come true in this market. We have experienced such scenarios many times before.
We should buy at the prices we target, regardless of fear pumping. I'm going to buy around 43000 and 40000 and hopefully I'll earn some money.

Yeah that's right but in my opinion it is also not that bad to somehow based speculations or either analysis on past markets data or let's say History. If you ever have been existing since 2017 and experience the bull and bear market already, or been existing in the market since then, you'll definitely understand where they are coming from. So don't laugh at them, for me it is very rude though. Lol.

Some people are just using their past experiences to make profit, and it's not bad, I consider it wise to be honest, because it is like learning from experiences. And a person who always learn from his/her mistakes or experience are at some point is always ahead to those who don't.

I think that's how it works because the chart is not always accurate! The crypto market moves like a mystery that's why no one can exactly predict its outcome even in a short period of time it always changes so whatever the outcome is? one thing is for sure the crypto market will always bounce back, that's why there's no reason to be panicked it's already December so what can we expect? a dump or a massive pump for that question it's better to observe wait and see.  

I agree to you that now things never work out as expected but you have to remember that these charts are only used to determine the possibilities and with not certainty. These charts helps us decide wether to buy or sell according to analysis. We have saw the rally in metaverse Alts in november and followed by dump in December. Bull run will happen soon faster than the dump is.

What is clear is that adoption has been different from last year, it is by no means a good benchmark if you reflect on the movement of Bitcoin from 2017. Just look at how the condition of Bitcoin this year alone has rallied more than 2x or 3x. The difference shows how complicated the current price movements are which will always be a mystery at the end of the year. Not a few people compare the phenomenon of 2017 with now, but it is too far to be compared.

People didn't know if there are lots of things that were also affecting the market. Sometimes it can become even stronger but it can also try to give the opposite thing like this time. People are blindly believing with the yearly chart. i remember that those who have been saying that 4 year cycle will always come but it's not yet proven this time. The charts are totally different but if we are seeing for the all time chart and the potential to bounce back again will always there.


So many things can come together like omicron, congress hearing news and many more. The news can change the climate anytime. sometimes it can be very bullish and bearish. People should not always rely with TA. So many people are only thinking about their TA without try to see about the fundamental of market itself. Even something bad happened with the big country can give direct impact to the crypto.

If it happens exactly what happened before then this cryptocurrency market will burst out and no one can claim tha5it will happen like that. You are just comparing to make your investment or trading strategy without doing any analysis we can't simply assume what will happen next because no one has that magic ball to find out about future.

Well you have to understand where are those analyst are coming from, those TA really needs to find pattern instead of anomaly and that's what they come up, similar to 2017 bullrun or 2013 and then created their own conclusions.

And that's why TA is not a exact science, it's just a prediction that could be a hit or miss. If it a hit then good for us, Bitcoin could be $100k and so other altcoins will have their new all time high. If not then we might be entering a bearish trend because of some factors, i.e. omicron news and Feds tapering.

You are absolutely correct here. Even I have seen some people comparing the charts to previous cycles and predicting the future price.
While it may be a possibility, depending on it is foolishness in my perspective. History can show us how the market can behave but not what will happen in future.
If the market has pumped in the end of the year in previous bull cycles doesn't mean it has to pump this year as well.
The market can go in either direction without depending on the previous cycles and that's about it.

Lol :D well for me one thing is certain right now and that is BTC isn't going to reach 100k this year again, the dream and hope is all gone now also tomorrow will determine the fate of crypto market cos inflation (ICP data) happens tomorrow so things can go side ways pretty fast

The few YouTubers that are bold enough are the ones coming out to make videos and saying they are sorry and they are wrong, yes I just watch a video from kale on YouTube right now saying we are in for real dips and this guy have been shouting 100x for altcoins and 100k for BTC, predictions are 100% 👎👎👎👎👎

It's a mystery just like how you said it. So the past may also happen in the future. Remember, it's not over yet. There will be lots of November and December before the end of the world where other Bitcoin supporters would use the same analogy over and over again.
Well, you could just stay optimistic with what they analyze and use it to strengthen your other beliefs. Nobody tells to believe it, they are all mere predictions and that should stay that way.
Bitcoin will always be volatile and it keeps on making us remember that every time a dump happens.

You're wrong, because everything keeps repeating but on a different scale. there is nothing wrong, if anyone compares the current chart with the past chart. it makes a lot of sense, because the market always faces recurring situations. But I also agree with you, that December is still a mystery. there is no certainty about what will happen to the crypto market in the future.

I have always not believed in bull, bear, price prediction, as I haven't believed in Influencers, bounty shill and even expert shilling. But I do believe in research rather than hoping on whatever happens, I think curiousity about things has gotten me thus far although I have bagged some L's but they were big wins in the essence of the gained knowledge, so never leave you Crypto investment or involvements to chance, the ratio of you losing is more and less when you actually research.

I know things cannot follow the same pattern but at least to some extend we have trends it follows even people that are forecasting weather make report of things they have equipment for not to talk about Crypto world.

They have their own perceptions and history is what makes us right now. History will repeat itself and there is a possibility BTC will also repeat it's momentum way back 2017, or maybe not. We can't really know and we also can't blame them for relying on history and charts. There is much to learn and there are millions of possibilities and we all have our own beliefs, it's we who chose who we follow. I guessed it's better than the people who did nothing 4 years ago and still does nothing at all in the meantime.

TA of graphics gives some info about possible future growth/falls of crypto. Traders usually observe similar situations that repeat in some period of time. However those periods are not one year periods. On graphics you can see that after every jump, there is a correction and then again the growth. Sure only good analytics, who everytime monitor the market, news, twitter, all exchanges, futures, etc or just lucky traders can make more precise conclusions when will be jump or falling of the market. For all the others it’s always a huge stress. What is more, looking on graphics you can find out that after halving BTC makes a huge jump and never again falls down on the previous level. Just examine the end of 2017 - beginning of 2018 year and end of 2020 – beginning of 2021 year. They are similar but not the same. So there is a possibility that during the next halving, we will also see similar situation (but another prices of course). But definitely, "similar" doesn't means "the same".

Comparing the 2017 bull chart with the 2021 chart is very different. Mystery not only for the current time, but for next year is still a mystery that can not be guessed how the graphics will appear. Everyone hopes that December to next year will be favorable. Let's just enjoy.

if comparing last year's chart with this year is very much different and very difficult to predict the future of the market, I see lately this year is almost the same as the 2017 movement chart. Hopefully it can be repeated again

It is true that the chart not same and the situations will probably different too from the previous bullish 4 years ago but admitted it or not until today some people still confident with their predictions and always compairing those situations for the reference of new peak which should be happened this month but nothing wrong with it because I personally hoping those predictions will correct that we will see new peak reached before 2022

It is laid in Technical analysis that the market is cyclical and everything is repeated. There are different patterns that traders find on charts and then use them to make a decision. If it wasn't work at all, there wouldn't be so many people who trade and make money on it so I can't agree that everything works differently every time, but that's right that the situation is always different and the general situation is also important.

Logically, if it happens again, that means most people saying the market is difficult or unpredictable is a lie, because if we equate and rate the charts for 2017 or whatever the reason will be the same as 2021.
Why should we make another choice if history will repeat itself and effective for 4 years will get good returns, just invest for 4 years because it will definitely be profitable and if true everyone will race to do it because Markets are predictable.

should not rely too much on history because everything is moving forward and there will be changes from year to year with different circumstances.

They were getting fooled by big guys on twitter who keep saying that if the trend will always be the same and 4 year cycle will always happen. So many institutional investors have been joining in this market and crypto can't be manipulated easily like what happened in a few years ago. Sometimes the guy who believed with 4 year cycle was facing huge losses. That's why he believe if the dump will be just temporary but he forgot if crypto is unpredictable. Bunch of expert traders failed to predict the direction of cryptocurrency right now.

I do believe some people may still tell you if the chart looks like the same with 4 year cycle that happened in 2017. They never learn from the market. TA was not everything. There was also FA that can change the situation anytime.