Bitcoin Forum

In recent times, I had been feeling some redundancy and repetition regarding my attempts to share some of my ideas about BTC and BTC portfolio management and various factors that people need to attempt to account for in their considerations about bitcoin.  

I created this as a self-moderated thread in order for me to exercise some discretion in terms of removing possible shitcoin, trolling or shilling posts above and beyond what forum moderators might consider, and likely I am not going to be too inclined to delete posts even if they are critical of my ideas.. but we will see where the post substance goes or if there is any participation beyond just me.

I thought that the creation of this thread could be helpful for me to have some of the ideas in one place and potentially allow me to lessen some of my needs to repeat ideas… whether in the form of various PMs or in various threads that I am presented with seemingly repetitive ideas..

Maybe in the end, the creation and intended maintenance of this thread will not lessen repetition of my posts regarding ideas outlined herein..? time will tell.  

Of course, for at least an initial period, I will need to flesh out some of the first few posts in a kind of work-in-progress way.    

I am considering categories of:

1)   This post:  Introduction (Opening Post 1):  
2)   Opening Post 2: Getting started – assessing personal financial situation (in relation to ability to invest in bitcoin) (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719590#msg58719590)
3)   Opening Post 3: Accumulation, maintenance, liquidation (or creation of legacy) of BTC (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591)  
                    3) a) -  Outside related thread Ideas of sustainable withdrawal (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5475347.msg63213914#msg63213914)
4)   Opening Post 4:  Attempts at BTC price predictions  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719593#msg58719593)
5)   Opening Post 5:  Other considerations / resources, bitcoin podcasts, threads of other forum members or my other threads (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719594#msg58719594)

I am also hoping that some of my ideas and outlining of intended investment bitcoin ideas will be helpful to other persons besides just me and maybe helpful for institutions and/or governments too.  

Anyone have any suggestions, questions or similar ideas that they would like to share in this thread?  Please do.  

I am also open to attempts to critique the various ideas or investment frameworks, but at my discretion I may well end up deleting posts that I determine to devolve too much into personal attacks (without seeming to provide adequate substance), shitcoin pumpening, bitcoin naysaying (that largely appears to me to be backhanded ways to shill some kind of a shitcoin) trolling or shilling.  

I would like to NOT delete many if any posts, but let’s see how it goes (especially since we are on the interwebs and cannot always know beforehand whether discussions will get too much derailed)?

Last Edited: November 24, 2023

Reserved 2

Opening Post 2: Getting started – assessing personal financial situation (in relation to ability to invest in bitcoin)

First things first, no?

Before any of us invest into anything, we should strive to figure out our own situation and individual circumstances to the best of our abilities.  Of course, we do not necessarily want the perfect to become the enemy of the good, but at the same time, if we cannot figure out various aspects of our own personal circumstances, then any investment that we make, whether it is into bitcoin or into some other investment, we may well devolve into gambling rather than investing.

These 9 principle individual factors that influence your decision whether to invest into bitcoin and how to invest into bitcoin have financial, skills and psychological components that include:

1)   your cashflow (which also includes ideas of income versus expenses and surely discretionary income is the difference between income and expenses),

2)   how much bitcoin you have already accumulated,

3)   your other investments (including considering your emergency fund, your float and your reserves - which are usually kinds of liquid ways to hold value in cash, dollars and/or your native currency in away that many of your expenses tend to be denominated),

4)   your view of bitcoin as compared with other investment possibilities,

5)   your timeline,

6)   your risk tolerance,

7)   your time, skills, goals (investment/lifestyle targets, which includes figuring out the extent that you are in BTC accumulation, maintenance or liquidation stage),
 
8 )   your abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time,
 
9)   your considering your time, your abilities and whether to trade, reallocate from time to time, to use of leverage and/or to use financial instruments... (and for sure the use of financial instruments, leverage and margin trading involve higher level skills and are not even necessary to still become richie in bitcoin's already existing asymmetric bet.)

These are ongoing areas in which anyone should be working upon without necessarily concluding that they need to perfect all of them or even to perfect any one category prior to being ready to start investing into bitcoin.. whether that is investing with their time, their energies and/or their finances.

I will say straight up that it can take a pretty long time to figure out all of these factors, and even if you do not know the exact answers for each or any of the categories, that lack of perfect knowledge should not stop you from getting started into investing in bitcoin including that you can continue to learn and to improve upon each of the areas (and all of the areas) to better get to know yourself and your particulars with practice and continued attempts at application and tweaking along the way.

In the near future, I will be fleshing out the above 9 categories a bit more and adding them here.. but just my providing the above 9 categories should already be helpful for anyone investing into bitcoin and the main aspect still remains that bitcoin investors should be spending some time figuring out some of the application of each of these ideas for themselves.


ONLY after we go through some preliminary steps of understanding our own situation in respect to the above categories, then we should be able to set our BTC investment target allocation, and of course, our target could change over time, so if we are an already established investor with several investments and a decently long history of investing that has allowed us to accumulate investment assets.. perhaps over 10 years or more, then we might well decide to get off of zero and have a BTC investment target anywhere between 1% and 10% of our total investment portfolio.  The 1% to 10% range is a starting out area, and of course the more that we learn about bitcoin might cause us to gravitate to some level outside of the range.  I would suspect that the more that anyone studies bitcoin should cause him/her to go higher in terms of allocation and perhaps above the 10% level.  Furthermore, the more bullish we are about bitcoin would cause us to gravitate towards the higher end of the range and the more bearish (or timid) that we might be about bitcoin would cause us to gravitate more towards the lower end of the range.

If we happen to be a less established investor and we have no other assets, we may well allocate all of our investment into BTC until we reach a certain level that would thereby allow us to diversify after we had already reached a certain level of investment whether that is $10k or $100k or some other amount would be our determination regarding if we might need to start to diversify into other investments besides having everything into bitcoin.

---

The power of compounding.

There surely is a certain power to compounding.  Let's imagine a hypothetical purchase of 20 BTC starting out with $5k invested in 2015... **(so that is about an average of $250 per BTC). It would just take a few of the compounding events to really start to feel the power of the compounding..   Even if you were to start to cash out 20% of your BTC stash after 10 or 11 compounding events, you would not deplete your BTC by cashing out in such a manner.

**this example was inspired by my earlier post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg63420716#msg63420716) on the topic.

1) $250 to $500     = $10k  (early 2015 to mid-2016)

2) $500 to $1,000     = $20k (mid-2016 to late 2016)

3) $1,000 to $2,000     = $40k  (late 2016 to mid-2017)

4) $2,000 to $4,000     = $80k  (mid -2017 to early 2020)

5) $4,000 to $8,000     = $160k (late-2017 to late 2020)

6) $8,000 to $16,000     = $320k (late 2017 to late 2022)

7) $16,000 to $32,000     = $640k (late 2017 to late 2024?)

8 ) $32,000 to $64,000     = $1.28 million (early 2021 to ?)

9) $64,000 to $128,000     = $2.56 million  (Early 2021 to ?)

10) $128,000 to $256,000     = $5.12 million (?)

11) $256,000 to $512,000     = $10.24 million   (?) (20 BTC) (otherwise if spending 20% reduced to about $8.192 million with a remaining stash of 16 BTC)

12) $512,000 to $1.24 million     = $20.48 million (?) (20 BTC) (otherwise if spending 20% reduced to about $15.872 million with a remaining stash of 12.8 BTC)

13) $1.24 million to $2.48 million     = $40.96 million  (?) (20 BTC) (otherwise if spending 20% reduced to about $25.3952 million with a remaining stash of 10.24 BTC)

So think about it, if the BTC price gets to $500k, then this hypothetical holder starts cashing out 20% of his stash each time the BTC price doubles, he still is allowing the stash to grown more than the amount that he is cashing out.    You can work out the raking numbers with a spreadsheet that I developed and discussed in another thread  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5475347.msg63352448#msg63352448) which fillippone has also linked a google spreadsheet to it (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zxMAwt2yHg9Nr7VMgo0zJe6igc8ZdYRpxfCWEr_Ds6w/edit?usp=sharing) so that you can plug in your own numbers to see how the compounding and raking works out with various numbers plugged therein.

Here is an excerpt / example of a similar but later posted description of compounding (For clarity, I edited the below post)

---

Here are 15 hypothetical examples^** to show how length of time investing in BTC, how much of an investment portfolio the person has and investing strategies can make significant differences in regards to choices that the investor will have available and whether he is going to want to consider either continue to accumulate BTC or maybe to convert into some other strategy (such as maintenance or liquidation).  

The wealthiest starts out with both DCA and lump sum is reflected in Hypos 1, 4, 7, 10 & 13.  The medium wealthy only does DCA is reflected in Hypos 2, 5, 8, 11 & 14.  The poorest only does DCA is reflected in Hypos 3, 6, 9, 12 & 15.

**The first 6 hypos are clarified slightly from the original post.


For these next Hypos 7-9, we can imagine similar kinds of hypothetical folks with ONLY 2.5 years investing into BTC.

Hypo 7 (2.5-years BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a decently large investment portfolio)
This person might have invested about a total of $3 million into bitcoin for the last 2.5 years using DCA method, and maybe even lump sum investing at various high price points, so maybe has a $34.9k average cost per BTC, and maybe built up 86 BTC, and so maybe he just plays the waves and feels like he is getting close to having enough BTC, and accomplished most of his DCA , and maybe will still buy some more BTC from time to time when he perceives the BTC price to be low.. such as near or below the 200-week moving average, other than that he might just be maintaining somewhat building his stash.   86 BTC - Around $3 million invested, average cost per BTC $34.9k, valued at around $2.666 million based on 200-WMA and $4.472 million spot price.

Hypo 8.  (2.5-years BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a medium-sized portfolio)
 Maybe this person was investing $2,000 per week into bitcoin, and invested around 264k into bitcoin and accumulated about 9.1 BTC (https://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin/?start_date=2021-08-15&finish_date=2024-02-18&regular_investment=2000&currency_code=USD&investment_interval=weekly&exchange_fee=0.02), and likely this person is not quite feeling as if he has enough BTC.....9.1 BTC - Around $264k invested, average cost per BTC $29k valued at around $282k based on 200-WMA and $473k spot price.

Hypo 9 (2.5-years BTC investor who came into bitcoin without any kind of investment portfolio), and has been investing $100 per week into bitcoin, and maybe invested around $13k into BTC and accumulated nearly 0.5 BTC (https://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin/?start_date=2021-08-15&finish_date=2024-02-18&regular_investment=100&currency_code=USD&investment_interval=weekly&exchange_fee=0.02).  This person still is considering that he is quite far from having enough BTC, even though he feels pretty comfortable about his investment to date including that he has built up his emergency fund, his reserves and his float, yet he is thinking that he might need to DCA into bitcoin for another 5-10 more years before he starts to feel comfortable, and maybe he is going to need to increase the quantity of his weekly DCA by either increasing income and/or cutting expenses... and he is thinking that he might be able to bring his DCA amount up to $200 or $400 per week and maybe get another 2 or 3 BTC in the next 10 to 15 years or so.  0.5 BTC - Around $13k invested, average cost per BTC $26k valued at around $15,500 based on 200-WMA and $26k spot price.

For these next Hypos 10-12, we can imagine similar kinds of hypothetical folks with ONLY 1.25 years investing into BTC.

Hypo 10 (1.25-years BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a decently large investment portfolio)
This person might have invested about a total of $2 million into bitcoin for the last 1.25 years using DCA method, and maybe even lump sum investing at various high price points, so maybe has a $25.6k average cost per BTC, and maybe built up 78 BTC, and so maybe he just continues to DCA for a while and perhaps considers starting to play the waves and feels like he continues to need to build his BTC stash size through DCA and maybe even some lump summing and buying on dips.. such as near or below the 200-week moving average, other than that he may well just be maintaining and building his stash.   78 BTC - Around $2 million invested, average cost per BTC $25.6k, valued at around $2.418 million based on 200-WMA and $4.056 million spot price.

Hypo 11.  (1.25-years BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a medium-sized portfolio)
 Maybe this person was investing $2,500 per week into bitcoin, and invested around 165k into bitcoin and accumulated about 6.2 BTC (https://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin/?start_date=2022-11-15&finish_date=2024-02-18&regular_investment=2500&currency_code=USD&investment_interval=weekly&exchange_fee=0.02), and likely this person is not quite feeling as if he has enough BTC.....6.2 BTC - Around $165k invested, average cost per BTC $26.6k valued at around $192.2k based on 200-WMA and $322.4k spot price.

Hypo 12 (1.25-years BTC investor who came into bitcoin without any kind of investment portfolio), and has been investing $100 per week into bitcoin, and maybe invested around $6.6k into BTC and accumulated nearly 0.25 BTC (https://dcacryptocalculator.com/bitcoin/?start_date=2021-08-15&finish_date=2024-02-18&regular_investment=100&currency_code=USD&investment_interval=weekly&exchange_fee=0.02).  This person still is considering that he is quite far from having enough BTC, even though he feels pretty comfortable about his investment to date including that he is making progress towards building up a solid emergency fund, reserves and float, yet he is thinking that he might need to DCA into bitcoin for another 5-10 more years before he starts to feel comfortable, and maybe he is going to need to increase the quantity of his weekly DCA by either increasing income and/or cutting expenses... and he is thinking that he might be able to bring his DCA amount up to $200 or $400 per week and maybe get another 2 or 3 BTC in the next 10 to 15 years or so.  0.25 BTC - Around $6.6k invested, average cost per BTC $26.4k valued at around $7,750 based on 200-WMA and $13k spot price.

For these next Hypos 13-15, we can imagine similar kinds of hypothetical folks who are pretty much newbies in their investing into BTC.. so they are trying to figure out their attack plan in order to accumulate BTC in the coming 4 years or so.

Hypo 13 (newbie BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a decently large investment portfolio)
We would assume this person already has various investments and a somewhat diversified portfolio and of course an emergency fund, reserves and float.  He could be aiming anywhere between 5% and 25% allocation into bitcoin, but he might want to take anywhere between 6 months and 24 months to reach his allocation and to think about these kinds of matters as he is going.  He might have a lump sum that he has already authorized of around $1.6 million and an anticipated income of around $800k for the next 6 months, so therefore his total budget is $2.4 million for the next 6 months.  He may well decide to dedicate 1/3 to lump sum, 1/3 to buying on dips and 1/3 to DCA.

Hypo 14.  (newbie BTC investor who came into bitcoin already with a medium-sized portfolio)
 Maybe this person does not have any lump sum that he is able to invest, but his finances are in pretty good order in terms of his emergency fund, reserves and his float, and he considers that he can invest right around $4k per month or $1k per week into BTC, and if he has time he can try to time his DCA investing so that he can take advantage of the dips... which is around 15% of his discretionary income yet he is thinking that it could take him 10-15 years or more to reach his investment targets.. yet he will keep investing into bitcoin at about $1k per week and maybe from time to time if he gets extra cashflow or he is able to decrease his expenses, he might invest more into BTC, but he is going to play it by ear with a decently aggressive DCA approach and reassess from time to time with the passage of time.

Hypo 15 (newbie BTC investor who came into bitcoin without any kind of investment portfolio), Maybe this person has to assess his budget and to build his cash reserves, his emergency fund and his float.  He may also need to pay off some of his debts so that his cashflow is stronger.  He is considering to start out by investing around $10 per week and working his way up to $100 per week in the next 3-6 months while he gets his finances in order, including assessing various aspects of his finances and psychology... He figures that after about 1 year he should have his more egregious debts paid off, and he might be able to build his emergency fund at the same time as he is investing into BTC.. with an expectation of potentially increasing his weekly investment into BTC beyond $100 per week, but that might take a year or two. and he will reassess at various points along the way.  

Last Edited: September 19, 2023 (updated 6 individual investment factors to become 9 factors)

January 10, 2024:  Added Compounding section

January 19, 2024 & February 17, 2024: specified some language in category 3 to differentiate between emergency fund and reserve fund.

February 18, 2024:  Added more compounding examples and added Hypos 1 - 12.

Reserved 3

Opening Post 3: Accumulation, maintenance, liquidation (or creation of legacy) of BTC

Of course, accumulation, maintenance, liquidation (or creation of legacy) of BTC are on a spectrum and should not be considered as absolutes, unless you have very narrow circumspection of your bitcoin involvement.  

And, BTC accumulation should be attempted with some kind of target in mind whether striving to get to some percentage of portfolio level or to get to some dollar value number or to get to some BTC accumulation amount.  Another possibility would be to set an amount that you would like to invest over a certain period of time, such as over the next 6 months, and then to subsequently reassess the matter.

When I initially got into BTC, I was thinking that I would invest a certain amount that I had set aside for the next 6 months and I would strive to stay invested in BTC for at least 2 years, and if things kind of evolved in a negative way or I became bearish on bitcoin, I would shoot for staying invested in bitcoin for at least 1 year out of consideration of long-term rather than short-term capital gains tax ramifications.

It seems to me that these days, some of the downside risk of bitcoin has been removed, so anyone getting into bitcoin these days should be able to come into bitcoin and attempt to have at least a 4-10 year investment time horizon, and of course, if there are abilities to stay invested longer than 10 years than that would even be better to have the ability to have a longer than 10 year investment timeline.

Now if for some reason you are not able to commit to at least a 4 year investment into BTC, then most likely there would be needs to tamper down the amount that you invest, and sure there could also be some situations in which it just does not make sense to invest at all when the time horizon is less than 4 years.  

Of course, there are other considerations involving not investing more than you can afford to lose, which has to do with making sure that your cashflow is in sufficient order as to have your expenses covered.  On a personal level I have frequently projected my cashflow and expenses out for at least 6 months.. but as my various cashflow expenses responsibilities and debt usage became more complicated, my desire to project out further began to make more sense to me.  So these days instead of projecting out only 6 months I tend to project my cashflow/expenses out at a least a couple of years.  Of course the period of 1-3 months into the future will retain a lot more specifics and the period of time that is out further can be more general and without as many specifics.. while at the same time there could be some needs to keep in mind that some decisions that are made today can have cashflow ramifications quite a ways into the future and frequently it can be quite helpful to project those numbers out on a spreadsheet.

Frequently also there can be fears that there is too much volatility in bitcoin or I am scared that bitcoin might go down in price, and a variety of concerns about the government cracking down or their being a software bug or that banks and rich people are able to drive/manipulate BTC prices down, or we might have another corona virus liquidation event scare or Armageddon etc, and these scenarios could well justify some folks to cut down the amount that is invested into bitcoin.. so instead of investing 10% you invest 5% or instead of investing 5% you only invest 1%..     Sometimes people will allow smaller probability expectations to justify that they do not do anything and they do not invest, but such scenarios most likely ONLY really justify a reduction of risk rather than not investing at all in BTC.

Once BTC accumulation targets are either established or at least there is some directional appreciation that you have to accumulate some bitcoin, then the next strategy would be to consider how to go about BTC accumulation.  Surely, the best three ways to consider BTC accumulation is through 1) dollar cost averaging (DCA), 2) lump sum investing and 3) buying on dips.  The consideration of these three strategies is also best in the order that I presented them.  DCA has the advantage of having a kind of regular flow into your BTC investment that can really add up over time.  Lump sum investing is many times not available for the vast majority of normies, and sure of course, if you have some abilities to lump sum invest there is nothing wrong with exercising such option because having a lump sum gives you options to invest it all at once or to even engage in some kind of DCA approach with investing the lump sum over time rather than all at once.  Buying on dips is not a bad idea, but it requires timing the market.

Fuck you status: created: December 28, 2021 -Last Edited 4/17/23

Around the time that I got into bitcoin, there was some reasonableness in asserting that $1 million could serve as a kind of entry-level fuck you status.  There could be an assumption that a 4% withdrawal rate could generate a passive income of $3,333 per month, and surely any kind passive income is a good thing in terms of NOT requiring very much work besides perhaps managing the money.  In recent times, especially after seeing some of the irresponsibilities of money printing following March 2020, it has become more likely that some kind of higher level of principle accumulation may well be needed to get into entry-level fuck you status, which in the last year and a half or so seems to have gravitated to $2 million.  So these days we can use $2 million as our entry-level fuck you status, which would then allow for $6,666 per month of passive income based on a 4% withdrawal rate.

Because historically bitcoin has been so volatile and volatility seems to be one of bitcoin's ongoing guarantees into the future, I find it very problematic to attempt to use bitcoin's spot price to determine BTC portfolio value, and therefore, I have considered that the use of some approximation of the 200-week moving average is going to be much more helpful in terms of valuing a BTC portfolio and lessening the likelihood of prematurely entering into fuck-you status.  Of course, the 200-week moving average is a very conservative and quite a lagging indicator and usually is only met in extended bear markets or short-term liquidation events.  Prior to 2022, the BTC did not tend to go below the 200-week moving average for more than a few days; however, in 2022, we saw the BTC price largely below the 200-week moving average for 9 months (see this website  (https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/)for historical BTC prices juxtaposed to the 200-week moving average).  

In this revised chart, I attempt to approximate the 200-week moving average - within reason.. but still allow for consideration of the fact that there may well be periods in which the 200-week moving average has been breached, and will likely be breached in the future (and still attempting to presume that such breaches of the 200-week moving average are not likely to be sustainable for extended periods of time). The "BTC Bottom" is meant to approximate some reasonable variation of the 200-week moving average.

One of the difficulties in my whole attempt at projecting a BTC price bottom remains that historically, the 200-week moving average has tended to have spurts of going up but gradually has continued to go up - even though there seem to be periods in which it goes up at a lower rate - so my chart attempts to put in numbers to show the gain time and the rate of change as decreasing with the passage of time, which largely signifies an anticipation that the 200-week moving average is likely to go up at a decreasing rate with the passage of time.

We can see that the amount of BTC that we need to reach an entry-level fuck you status of $2 million to be getting smaller and smaller with the passage of time.  Even though currently (based on bottom price projections), it would require about somewhere between 77 BTC and 95 BTC to arrive at entry-level fuck-you status, the below chart shows (based on projected bottom prices) that by November 30, 2023 we may well only need 62.25215095 BTC to reach entry-level fuck you status and in mid-2025 we may well need right around 35 BTC to reach entry-level fuck you status.. and if these kinds of trends continue to somewhat be able to sustain themselves, then if we project out the chart to late 2029 or even early 2030, we may well ONLY need less than 10 BTC to reach entry-level fuck you status by then.  

Note my numbers are way more conservative based on these revised numbers, since my earlier chart had shown being able to reach fuck you status based on less than 1 BTC by mid 2029.. and this chart seems to require 10x the earlier amount.. .. so yeah much more conservative, but hopefully not overly pie in the sky, either.. we need to attempt to play these price projections and bottoms by ear to make sure that actual price moves (and the 200-week moving average is mostly moving in some kind of synchronicity with the price projections).

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Entry-level Fuck you status chart - attempt to prognosticate.

BTC_Price Bottom Start $                    StartDate               Gain/Time(days)                 FU Status Goal                
                               $0.30                    12/1/10                    182.6 (6 mos)                       $2,000,000

Last modification:^** December 2, 2023  (Link (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg62108864#msg62108864) to Earlier version from December 28, 2021)  Here's a link (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg63209636#msg63209636) to an April 17, 2023 / August 6, 2023 version.

Here is the latest version (as of August 3, 2025) of the below table shows updated past spot prices and 200-WMA through May 2025 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg65653923#msg65653923).  Also it has a projection of prices and 200-WMA through 2090, and there is link to raw data through 2157.

(Date)	(RL_Price)	(BTC Bottom)	(%gain/time)	(% Rate ∆)	($ Amount ∆)	(#Coins/FU Status)
12/01/2010	$0.21	$0.30			$0.42	6,666,667.0000
06/01/2011	$8.74	$1.00	233.33%		$0.70	2,000,000.0000
12/01/2011	$2.97	$4	300.%		$3.00	500,000.0000
5/31/12	$5.00	$5	25.%		$1.00	400,000.0000
11/30/12	$13.00	$6	20.%		$1.00	333,333.0000
06/01/2013	$128.00	$16	166.67%		$10.00	125,000.0000
11/30/13	$1,104	$62	287.5%		$46.00	32,258.0000
06/01/2014	$644	$121	95.16%		$59.00	16,529.0000
11/30/14	$381	$184	52.07%		$63.00	10,870.0000
06/01/2015	$236	$217	17.93%		$33.00	9,217.0000
12/01/2015	$369	$252	16.13%		$35.00	7,937.0000
5/31/16	$535	$307	21.83%		$55.00	6,515.0000
11/30/16	$743	$389	26.71%		$82.00	5,141.0000
5/31/17	$2,234	$529	35.99%		$140.00	3,781.0000
11/30/17	$9,948	$1,049	98.3%		$520.00	1,907.0000
06/01/2018	$7,438	$2,336	122.69%		$1,287.00	856.1644
11/30/18	$4,139	$3,133	34.12%		$797.00	638.3658
06/01/2019	$8,578	$3,704	18.23%		$571.00	539.9568
11/30/19	$7,405	$4,908	32.51%		$1,204.00	407.4980
5/31/20	$9,472	$5,895	20.11%		$987.00	339.2706
11/30/20	$19,610	$7,322	24.21%		$1,427.00	273.1494
5/31/21	$35,497	$12,751	74.15%		$5,429.00	156.8504
11/30/21	$57,003	$17,839	39.9%		$5,088.00	112.1139
5/31/22	$29,817	$22,074	23.74%		$4,235.00	90.6043
11/30/22	$17,164	$24,112	9.23%		$2,038.00	82.9463
06/01/2023	$26,822	$26,313	10.9%		$2,201.00	76.0081
11/30/23	$37,814	$29,049	10.4%		$3,021.10	68.84920000
5/31/24		$33,697	16.%		$5,391.49	59.35270000
11/29/24		$39,196	16.32%	102.00%	$6,396.81	51.02540000
5/31/25		$45,721	16.65%	102.00%	$7,610.89	43.74365689
11/30/25		$53,484	16.98%	102.00%	$9,081.23	37.39434790
5/31/26		$58,298	9.%	.00%	$5,246.78	34.30674120
11/30/26		$63,282	8.55%	95.00%	$5,410.61	31.60455200
5/31/27		$68,422	8.12%	95.00%	$5,557.59	29.23031931
11/30/27		$73,702	7.72%	95.00%	$5,687.11	27.13637487
5/31/28		$84,020	14.%		$11,763	23.80383760
11/29/28		$96,018	14.28%	102.00%	$13,711	20.82939937
5/31/29		$110,004	14.57%	102.00%	$16,023	18.18119870
11/29/29		$126,347	14.86%	102.00%	$18,771	15.82943367
5/31/30		$136,455	8.%		$10,916	14.65688302
11/30/30		$146,825	7.6%	95.00%	$11,159	13.62163850
5/31/31		$157,426	7.22%	95.00%	$11,366	12.70438211
11/30/31		$168,224	6.86%	95.00%	$11,538	11.88892102
5/30/32		$188,411	12.%		$22,609	10.61510805
11/29/32		$211,472	12.24%	102.00%	$25,884	9.45750895
5/31/33		$237,874	12.48%	102.00%	$29,698	8.40781062
11/29/33		$268,166	12.73%	102.00%	$34,150	7.45806378
5/31/34		$286,938	7.%		$20,086	6.97015307
11/29/34		$306,019	6.65%	95.00%	$20,350	6.53553968
5/31/35		$325,352	6.32%	95.00%	$20,554	6.14719089
11/30/35		$344,878	6.%	95.00%	$344,878	5.79914779
5/30/36		$379,366	10.%		$379,366	5.27195254
11/29/36		$418,061	10.2%	102.00%	$418,061	4.78398597
5/30/37		$461,557	10.4%	102.00%	$461,557	4.33316362
11/29/37		$510,537	10.61%	102.00%	$510,537	3.91744159
5/31/38		$541,170	6.%		$541,170	3.69569961
11/29/38		$572,016	5.7%	95.00%	$572,016	3.49640455
5/31/39		$602,991	5.42%	95.00%	$602,991	3.31679984
11/29/39		$634,010	5.14%	95.00%	$634,010	3.15452328
5/30/40		$684,731	8.%		$684,731	2.92085489
11/29/40		$740,605	8.16%	102.00%	$740,605	2.70049453
5/30/41		$802,247	8.32%	102.00%	$802,247	2.49299738
11/29/41		$870,355	8.49%	102.00%	$870,355	2.29791234
5/30/42		$913,873	5.%		$913,873	2.18848794
11/29/42		$957,282	4.75%	95.00%	$957,282	2.08924863
5/31/43		$1,000,479	4.51%	95.00%	$1,000,479	1.99904187
11/29/43		$1,043,369	4.29%	95.00%	$1,043,369	1.91686813
5/30/44		$1,116,404	7.%		$1,116,404	1.79146554
11/28/44		$1,196,116	7.14%	102.00%	$1,196,116	1.67207909
5/30/45		$1,283,226	7.28%	102.00%	$1,283,226	1.55857145
11/29/45		$1,378,550	7.43%	102.00%	$1,378,550	1.45079945
5/30/46		$1,433,692	4.%		$1,433,692	1.39499947
11/29/46		$1,488,173	3.8%	95.00%	$1,488,173	1.34393013
5/30/47		$1,541,896	3.61%	95.00%	$1,541,896	1.29710465
11/29/47		$1,594,775	3.43%	95.00%	$1,594,775	1.25409545
5/30/48		$1,690,461	6.%		$1,690,461	1.18310891
11/28/48		$1,793,918	6.12%	102.00%	$1,793,918	1.11487836
5/30/49		$1,905,901	6.24%	102.00%	$1,905,901	1.04937234
11/28/49		$2,027,255	6.37%	102.00%	$2,027,255	0.98655588
5/30/50		$2,088,072	3.%		$2,088,072	0.95782124
11/29/50		$2,147,582	2.85%	95.00%	$2,147,582	0.93127977
5/30/51		$2,205,728	2.71%	95.00%	$2,205,728	0.90673005
11/29/51		$2,262,462	2.57%	95.00%	$2,262,462	0.88399266
5/29/52		$2,375,585	5.%		$2,375,585	0.84189777
11/28/52		$2,496,740	5.1%	102.00%	$2,496,740	0.80104450
5/30/53		$2,626,621	5.2%	102.00%	$2,626,621	0.76143467
11/28/53		$2,765,990	5.31%	102.00%	$2,765,990	0.72306837
5/30/54		$2,848,970	3.%		$2,848,970	0.70200813
11/28/54		$2,930,166	2.85%	95.00%	$2,930,166	0.68255530
5/30/55		$3,009,500	2.71%	95.00%	$3,009,500	0.66456228
11/29/55		$3,086,908	2.57%	95.00%	$3,086,908	0.64789754
5/29/56		$3,210,384	4.%		$3,210,384	0.62297841
11/28/56		$3,341,368	4.08%	102.00%	$3,341,368	0.59855727
5/29/57		$3,480,422	4.16%	102.00%	$3,480,422	0.57464293
11/28/57		$3,628,160	4.24%	102.00%	$3,628,160	0.55124357
5/30/58		$3,737,005	3.%		$3,737,005	0.53518793
11/28/58		$3,843,510	2.85%	95.00%	$3,843,510	0.52035773
5/30/59		$3,947,573	2.71%	95.00%	$3,947,573	0.50664044
11/28/59		$4,049,109	2.57%	95.00%	$4,049,109	0.49393580
5/29/60		$4,211,074	4.%		$4,211,074	0.47493827
11/28/60		$4,382,885	4.08%	102.00%	$4,382,885	0.45632039
5/29/61		$4,565,284	4.16%	102.00%	$4,565,284	0.43808889
11/28/61		$4,759,072	4.24%	102.00%	$4,759,072	0.42024998
5/29/62		$4,901,844	3.%		$4,901,844	0.40800969
11/28/62		$5,041,547	2.85%	95.00%	$5,041,547	0.39670364
5/30/63		$5,178,047	2.71%	95.00%	$5,178,047	0.38624603
11/28/63		$5,311,233	2.57%	95.00%	$5,311,233	0.37656042
5/29/64		$5,523,682	4.%		$5,523,682	0.36207733
11/27/64		$5,749,048	4.08%	102.00%	$5,749,048	0.34788367
5/29/65		$5,988,301	4.16%	102.00%	$5,988,301	0.33398457
11/28/65		$6,242,494	4.24%	102.00%	$6,242,494	0.32038478
5/29/66		$6,429,769	3.%		$6,429,769	0.31105318
11/28/66		$6,613,017	2.85%	95.00%	$6,613,017	0.30243382
5/29/67		$6,792,065	2.71%	95.00%	$6,792,065	0.29446128
11/28/67		$6,966,765	2.57%	95.00%	$6,966,765	0.28707729
5/29/68		$7,245,436	4.%		$7,245,436	0.27603586
11/27/68		$7,541,049	4.08%	102.00%	$7,541,049	0.26521508
5/29/69		$7,854,878	4.16%	102.00%	$7,854,878	0.25461886
11/27/69		$8,188,304	4.24%	102.00%	$8,188,304	0.24425083
5/29/70		$8,433,953	3.%		$8,433,953	0.23713672
11/28/70		$8,674,321	2.85%	95.00%	$8,674,321	0.23056560
5/29/71		$8,909,178	2.71%	95.00%	$8,909,178	0.22448760
11/28/71		$9,138,333	2.57%	95.00%	$9,138,333	0.21885829
5/28/72		$9,503,866	4.%		$9,503,866	0.21044067
11/27/72		$9,891,624	4.08%	102.00%	$9,891,624	0.20219126
5/29/73		$10,303,274	4.16%	102.00%	$10,303,274	0.19411305
11/27/73		$10,740,631	4.24%	102.00%	$10,740,631	0.18620880
5/29/74		$11,062,850	3.%		$11,062,850	0.18078525
11/27/74		$11,378,141	2.85%	95.00%	$11,378,141	0.17577564

Again:  of course, there are no guarantees, and since the 200-week moving average is a lagging indicator, we can monitor our progress towards reaching entry-level fuck you status and hopefully not conclude that we are in such entry-level fuck-you status before we have accounted for BTC's likely ongoing volatility.

Starting with an aim to invest into bitcoin while already having an established investment portfolio.  Created: June 29, 2022

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There is a difference between getting into bitcoin as a newbie and starting out with little to no investment portfolio, and coming into bitcoin after already having an investment portfolio.

It appears that bitcoin is a asymmetric bet to the upside, and even though historically there are no guarantees that the BTC prices will go up or that BTC prices will not go below certain previous bottom price points, there can ways to allocate in order to attempt to offset some of the risk - but surely each of us has a lot of discretion in terms of letting our winners run (rather than reallocating our assets).  I proclaim that my increasingly overallocation towards bitcoin through time has come from allowing bitcoin to ride and appreciate in value - and choosing to mostly NOT reallocate my various investments.

Here's approximately how my various allocations in various assets have changed through time (from since I got into bitcoin until present)..    These are approximate.. and might even be partially (or totally) fictional.. you fucks.

Late 2013  (just starting to get into bitcoin - BTC prices $1,100 -ish  - immediately pre-bitcoin)
BTC           Stocks               Bonds (fixed/govt)                      Property               Business                Gold (Pms)             Cash       Hybrid Income generating funds      other           Created: June 29, 2022 (first posted on June 28 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg60467347#msg60467347))
0%              17%                   6%                                              5%                      5%                          0%                         6%                      59%                                        2%

Late 2014   (nearly met my bitcoin allocation target - which was intended to be 10% - bitcoin prices downwardly sloped all of 2014)  
9.5%            13%                   5%                                             4.5%                  4.5%                        0%                         4.5%                    57%                                        2%

Late 2015   (over-allocated into bitcoin by about 3.5% more than intended BTC prices - in low territories mostly around $250 for most of 2015)
13.5%           12%                   4%                                            4.25%                   4.25%                    0%                         4%                       56.5%                                    1.5%

Late 2017  (my first bitcoin pump up to $20k-ish - bitcoin grew a lot and other allocations grew less)
80%               2%                   0.25%                                        0.25%                   0.25%                    0%                         3%                       14.2%                                    .05%

Late 2018  (my first major bitcoin crash down to $3,124-ish - bitcoin values crashed but not as far as my late 2015 allocation)  
42%              6%                   1.25%                                         1.25%                   1.25%                    0%                         2%                       45.75%                                    .5%

Late 2021  (my second bitcoin pump up to $69k-ish - bitcoin grew a lot and other allocations grew less)
89%              1%                   0.125%                                     0.125%                   0.125%                    0%                         3%                       6.62%                                    .05%

mid 2022   (my second major bitcoin crash down to $17,593-ish - bitcoin values crashed but not as far as my late 2018 crash, so far)  
63%              2%                   0.5%                                          0.5%                      0.5%                       0%                         1%                       22.35%                                   .15%

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Ideas of sustainable withdrawal (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5475347.msg63213914#msg63213914) that attempts to measure monthly budget limits based spot price relative to the 200-week moving average

Last Edited: December 2, 2023

Reserved 4

Opening Post 4:  Attempts at BTC price predictions

For now, I am going to revive and revise my earlier estimations that attempt to account for predicting when the BTC price peak will be this cycle and also the amount of the BTC price peak (here's some links  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg58603462#msg58603462)to my earlier posts on the topic going back to mid-August for BTC price (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg57728410#msg57728410) and going back to early November for timeline (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg58603462#msg58603462)).

I will go over price first, and I will just point out that our November 9 peak of $69k (ATH), our December 3 correction down to $41,967 and our subsequent bouncing largely between $45,750 and $52k in the past two weeks.. has caused me to consider various points in which there is likely resistance.  As I attempt to flesh out below, I have recently established that I believe that noman's land has likely shifted from $55k to $80k, and is now in the ballpark of $62k to $92k (assuming that there continues to be enough buy pressure to get back above $62k and into what I will now consider noman's land.  

Accordingly, I will currently (last revised December 16, 2021), in my opinion, I will place odds for UPside scenario within the below parameters:**

above $1.5 million  - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios  -   about .5% odds

$800k to $1.5 million  - nearly most bullish of scenarios  -   about 2% odds

$650k to $800k  - aggressively highly bullish  -   about 4.25% odds

$450k to $650k  - Optimistically highly bullish  -   about 7.75% odds

$220k to $450k  - Moderately highly bullish  -   about 14.5% odds

$120k to $220k  - moderately bullish -   about 15.5% odds

$92k to $120k  - not very bullish -   about 5.5% odds

$62k to $92k  - Not getting through deadman's zone.. (and therefore having a top somewhere in this range)    -   about 5% odds

$52k to $62k  - Topping out in this pre-deadman's zone range, and not getting into deadman's zone - about 11.5% odds

DOWN from our current range of $45k to $52k as the top for this cycle  - most bearish - but surely possible with decent odds -   about 33.5% odds

**Note: that I have been providing these kinds of percentage frameworks as a proposed way to consider the assignments of percentages at any particular point in time.. .yet not so much for whether the percentages are accurate or even that they would be the same between one person and another person or that the assignments would be the same for the same person at time 1 versus time 2 after events might have occurred causing some justifications to change the percentage assignments.

As far as timeline: (last revised December 16, 2021)

Already peaked out in 2021 at $69k: 45%

Peaks out higher than $69k at some point in 2021: 2%

Peaks out 1st quarter 2022: 24%

Peaks out 2nd quarter 2022: 17%

Peaks out 3rd quarter 2022: 8.5%

Peaks out after 3rd quarter 2022 (such as 4th quarter but before 2nd quarter 2023): 3.5%

Peaks out after 2nd quarter 2023: 1%

Of course, the numbers in the above chart are somewhat opinion-based, and may also be substantiated based on hunches that could end up being whimsical, even though they were honest attempts at capturing my best approximation of my opinion at the time they were last revised.

Just a tip on reading the above charts, by adding up the numbers in each of the charts, we could assert that I have proclaimed that the odds are 51/49 that the BTC price for this cycle will top out at some point above $92k (which might be a bit too bullish), and that the odds are 47% that the peak for this cycle happens this calendar year.. and sure seems a bit out of my ass and surely there are ONLY about 15 days left in this calendar year, as I type this post.  

Many times the discussion of BTC price prediction models will attempt to give some kind of weight to credible BTC price prediction models that are in existence, and surely some folks also try to spin their own models.  For sure, there is a certain amount of guessing that is involved in coming up with various predictions to put values on where the price has been, how we got to where we are at and an attempt to assign some level of probabilities to where we might be going.  The three currently credible BTC price prediction models that I have been trying to use are 1) Stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects.

Even my outlining of what I use has a kind of loosey-goosey attempt at approximating factors that I believe to be relevant in the long term, and surely, I have way fewer inclinations to attempt to figure out short-term BTC price movements with a kind of hope./expectation that the BTC price will end up being higher 4 years down the road than it is now.

Also, in recent times, in about late July and early August, I had been asserting that it would be my belief that the $28,600 bottom was in, so long as BTC prices went above $46k - which ended up happening in about mid -August, and then we did get stuck in the $46ks for a bit longer in September but thereafter went above $50k for October and November and only recently to come back down below $50k in December.

So surely between about September to November I had been asserting my belief that the price arena of $55k to about $80k would be a kind of noman's land - largely signifying that BTC prices were likely to pass through $55k to $80k-ish without hardly any resistance.  Nonetheless, it seem that in recent times our BTC price move up to $69k on November 9, and then our correction back down below $50k since December 3rd had seemed to have had caused my noman's land thesis (at least for that $55k to $80k range) to have been mostly was negated, so based on the most recent price correction, I have thought it prudent to tentatively re-establish the noman's land price range to be somewhere between $62k and $92k.. .so at this time, we likely have our price range of current price in the mid-to upper $40ks and to see whether we can back into noman's land.. so at this time we are kind of in a pre-noman's land price arena.  

Then of course if we do end up entering into noman's land and getting above $62k, then I would expect that the price resistance would be pretty light until perhaps becoming stronger once the BTC price goes above $92k.. that is if we were to get above $92k... so therefore, I am expecting some potential pre-noman's land resistance (so before $62k), and then perhaps less price resistance in the $62k to $92k price range and then additional price resistance in the sub $100k to $112k-ish range and then again maybe less resistance between $112k and $200k. and then it becomes more and more difficult to attempt to assign any values to price ranges that are further out - even presuming that there is some possibilities to get to those prices in this cycle..

Downside Scenarios  (last revised May 19, 2022)  

As I type this downside scenario, we seem to largely staying within a $27k to $32k range, so it seems that the $25,401 bottom from May 11/12 is not currently being tested in any immediate sense.

To me it seems that after we have gone below the 100-week moving average (which is currently at $35k) and we have now been below the 100-weekMA for nearly two weeks.. we have transitioned from a bull market into a bear market... so the odds have become greater to break down than up... but still how far the BTC price breaks down is not exactly known in advance, either.

So consider the below assigned percentages as possible Downity scenario peaks from where we are at currently and where the peak of the bottom would end up being.. Based on ongoing downward momentum and even short-term bearish macro factors, at this time, I am going to ascribe our down odds for the whole down range at about 51% right now.. even though I am somewhat just stabbing in the dark, really...  But in the end, all my assignments of probability numbers (even though somewhat out of my ass) on the way down currently add up to 51%.  Note also that if the BTC price breaks further down, the numbers are likely going to need to revise.. but then at some point it might not be clear if the market might convert back from bearish to bullish.

Anyhow, here's a possible assignment percentages for where the bottom might occur from our current range bottom of $27k as I type.**

bottom of current $27k already reached and will not be breached - most timid of bearish scenarios  -   about 10% odds

$25.4k to $27k  - could happen bearish  -   about 12% odds

$22.5k to $25.4k  - pretty severe bearish  -   about 13.5% odds

$20k to $22.5k  - worser case bearish  -   about 8.5% odds

$17.5k to $20k  - a bit of a stretch bearish  -   about 3.75% odds

$13k to $17.5k  - overly bearish -   about 2% odds

$10k to $13k  - way overly bearish -   about 0.75% odds

below $10k  - not very likely but possible -   less than 0.5% odds

**Note: that I have been providing these kinds of percentage frameworks as a proposed way to consider the assignments of percentages at any particular point in time.. .yet not so much for whether the percentages are accurate or even that they would be the same between one person and another person or that the assignments would be the same for the same person at time 1 versus time 2 after events might have occurred causing some justifications to change the percentage assignments.

I remain a bit uncomfortable to go too far over 50/50 in terms of my assignment of bearish scenarios even though at the time of my typing this post, it feels that we have ongoing downity momentum for now, and I have not really figured out exactly what kind of UPpity would cause us to get out of our current transition into a bear market and to return to either neutral or to a bull market.. for sure getting above the 100-week moving average that is currently at $35k would likely be helpful.. and maybe getting above the 100-week moving average by more than 10% and just staying above such 100-week moving average for a week or longer might be enough?  I have not figured out in my own head regarding how much up might be needed (maybe getting above the 50-week moving average would be a better way to measure a return to a bull market?  As I type both the 26-weekMA and the 50-week moving average are around the $42k to $44k price arena.  For sure, there is a bit of a lagging indicator aspect in regards to using moving average indicators as bear/bull market assessments tools.  



Last Edited Upside Scenarios: December 16, 2021   Last Edited Downside Scenarios: May 19, 2022 Added upside scenarios post: November 11, 2023

Reserved 5

Opening Post 5:  Other considerations / resources, bitcoin podcasts, threads of other forum members or my other threads

Last Edited: December 14, 2021

i expect my post to be deleted. but before clicking the button treat this as some positive criticism

you seem to fear the bears and dips.. why?
bears and dips are not a time to get scared and drop your % accumulation. not a time to sell. its actually the perfect time to buy in more at a discount.

dont fear the bear/dips. enjoy and get excited by them. its discount.

edit to explain references to fear/bears
sounds like when markets go bear, you NOW halt purchasing and force yourself to not listen to the voice telling you to sell and pay taxes, and instead just hoard and wait out the bear

yet you have the premiss still to just 'wait it out' rather then buy buy buy

good advice is buy low sell high. buy the fall sell the rise
not buy the rise fear the fall.

you keep mentioning bitcoin price downs as a negative. dude its discount. its a positive

here you are saying in times of bear you advise people decrease their DCA amounts from 10% to 5% to 1%
when bears happen. you even call it 'reducing risk'

EG if the price tipped $20k in 2017. and you had 1%DCA, and then it corrected down. you should have increased to 5% when it dipped to $10k and increased to 10% when it dipped to $5k. meaning your buying 10% of your wealth at only $5k and only 1% of wealth at $20k
put it this way if you are happy to put in say $1k (rep 1% of wealth) a month at $20k spike. you  are getting just 0.05btc a month, however if you put in $10k(rep 10% wealth) at $5k you get 2btc
meaning you gain more coin per dollar, which is a good thing

..then when the price increases, once you are above break even. then you reduce your risk by reducing your %, to avoid you getting less dollar per coin in times of temporary pump drama changes

however your fear method of having $10k a month(10% dca) buying the $20k spike only gets you 0.5btc that extreme month. then when the correction happens you only want to buy $5k a month(5%) at $10k which is another 0.5. and the $1k(1%) at $5k which is only 0.2btc a month. and for many months you are only buying 0.2btc a month. instead of the opposite to fear which would net you 2btc a month while the $5k a coin option was discounted.

actual good investors buy more when there is a discount.. put more in per month at discounted prices. not less
basically you should accumulate more during dips.. not less
..
as for your prediction models. i do hope you know that the stock-to-flow graph everyone is sharing regarding bitcoins price history is actually misleading. this is because the daily price of bitcoin has a pattern with S2F because bitcoins S2F has a yearly average price variable included to bend bitcoins S2F curve into resembling the separate market price chart.

so its not actually comparing just coins in circulation, deviated by production rate(true s2f) to then compare to market daily price. its actually just daily price compared to yearly moving averaged price at the point of the same day. where stock is added to make it not look exactly like 2 mirrored lines

everyone knows that bitcoins pure 'stock to flow" (circulation) is this step down curve
https://thewanderingeconomist.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/btc-circulation.png

so when the year average price is added as a variable. ofcourse it will start bending the stock curve to resemble the price wiggle

its not predicting future prices. its using the historic price to resemble the historic price

I cannot respond in detail right now.. yet on the face of your above attached responsive post and with a kind of quick overview of some of your ideas contained therein, at this time, I do not see any reason to delete your post, and for sure there might be some prematurity in aspects of the substance of your post in terms of my not having had yet been able to flesh out the outline portion of each of my above initial 5 posts.... .. and so maybe when I get an opportunity to read your above-attached responsive post more thoroughly (I expect to do that before continuing with my 4 posts.. within the next 12 hours or so), then I might reconsider if there is some disingenuineness contained therein.. but overall with your starting out idea about my supposedly being afraid of downward BTC price movements or being afraid of bears.. that is untrue on its face.. and I will want to respond to that... and it just seems strange to me that you would even think that I am afraid of down or bears or that I am trying to spin UP or whatever without being in touch with real actual BTC price dynamics.. but maybe your conclusion is based on my not yet having had finished the whole of a few of my posts (including a few aspects of post 4 - the price prediction one)?

---

Fair enough.. .. I will concede that I am still trying to figure out the level that might fall into deletion territory, but this does not seem very close to merely because it is making various criticisms of some of my points as they currently stand in the OP posts.  My current intention is to largely have the first 5 posts as ongoing edited outlines and to mostly allow subsequent posts in the thread to stand as is without editing (or deleting for that matter unless they go too far in terms of their shilling or trolling). 


As I already mentioned, I am not sure where you are getting the idea about my supposed fear. Of course, I have a personal preference for the BTC price to go up, just like anyone should likely prefer if they are sufficiently (or heavily) invested, so in that regard, there are more profits from going up as compared with going down.. but at the same time, anyone who has been in bitcoin for long enough should realize that BTC prices do not just go straight up and one of the BIGGEST guarantees would be up and down price movements (aka volatility), and in the short term, it is not always clear about what direction it is going to be, and surely those who invest in bitcoin for long enough (which is the case with me) have developed a premise that there is an expectation that the BTC price will be UP in the longer term, and for me, that expectation of the BTC price being up is at least on a 4 year timeline.. and even that is not guaranteed, but I think that the odds will be that the BTC price will be UP on a 4-year timeline from any time that anyone invested; however, on a shorter timeline, the price may or may not be up.. so in that respect, it can be quite a bit more difficult to have expectations in regards to short term price movements - and surely there may be larger deviations from price expectations, such as corrections into the 80% plus arena during a bear market or even corrections greater than 30% in a bull market tht cause frustration regarding where the price is at in contrast to where the price might have been expected to be.


I see no reason for anyone who is investing in BTC to get excited about corrections.  Sure, taking advantage of such corrections when they occur and buying more BTC during corrections does seem to be an overall sound strategy that I have been following since I got into BTC in late 2013.  My first 3 years in bitcoin was largely down from the price in which I had made my initial BTC purchase at around $1,200... so surely, I am familiar with down and I am familiar with buying on the way down and continuing to buy at lower prices than my initial BTC purchase in late 2013.  Actually, that first BTC that I purchased in late November 2013 did not become consistently profitable until about April 2017, which would have been about 3 years and 5 months after that initial purchase.


You seem to be projecting here.  For me personally, since the beginning, my system of getting involved in BTC was intended as a long term investment, so I have very little inclination to fuck around with getting in and out of bitcoin, so in that regard, I am mostly in all of the time and mostly accumulating.

Perhaps my strategy will come out more after I flesh out some of the points in my 5 OP posts.. but the gist of the matter was that my first year in Bitcoin I was still in the process of figuring out the level of allocation that I was going to end up making into bitcoin, and I largely figured that out by the end of the first year and considered 10% to be a good target allocation level (which I reached by the end of 2014); however, any of us can look at the BTC price charts and see that the vast majority of 2015 had the BTC price largely bouncing in the mid $200s, and so during that time I continued to accumulate BTC, so towards the end of 2015, my accumulation level was around 13.5%, so in that respect I started to feel overallocated, and therefore, my relatively small and incremental sales strategies that I started to employ towards the end of 2015 and continued to carry out subsequently (and even to date) were somewhat responses to considering my overall portfolio to be overallocated, so there was not any kind of real motivation to worry about if I had enough BTC.. so I could freely sell incremental amounts of BTC in pretty liberating ways and without too much worry about if I had enough, so I started to consider some other factors but the factor about having enough BTC started to play a much smaller role in my considerations.

As we know the BTC price pretty much went up from late 2015, so in late 2015 and even into 2016, some of my earlier plans to sell BTC as the price went up were more aggressive than they ended up playing out.. Since I did not really end up selling as aggressively as I had originally intended starting in around 2016, my BTC allocation started to go up mostly due to BTC price appreciation rather than my continuing to throw new money into it.

So largely my BTC allocation went from 13.5% in late 2015 to around 85% in late 2017, and corrected back down to 45% in the deeper of the BTC price corrections in late 2018 and even the March 2020 liquidation event... and in recent times, my BTC allocation has hovered between 87% and 91% depending on the BTC price levels (such as down to $28,600 and up to $69k) and maybe some other shaving around actions that I might take from time to time.. but the allocation remains pretty high in BTC and seems to give a lot of liberty and options in terms of shaving off profits whenever I want or if I want... and another thing that I like to assert on a regular basis is that even though I went back and forth regarding some of my BTC holdings in earlier years and sometimes mistakes were made in terms of my average cost per BTC.. but even if we consider my average costs per BTC to be around $1k per BTC (which is a nice round number for calculation purposes, there should not be a lot of worries whether some BTC needs to be shaven off at 20x, 40x or 70x.. Of course, it is better if the shaving off is at higher profits, but once a portfolio is considerably in profits, there are no real BIG motivations to quibble in regards to what to do, and it is not any kind of BIG deal if profits might be taken at smaller levels of profits - even while at the same time, there still might be some preferences to curb behaviors in order to get some of the greater benefits to cash out some amounts at 70x rather than 20x profits... when it seems feasible and practical to be able to accomplish that without any kind of meaningful burden.. so in that regard there are options but there can still be decisions in terms of trying to better manage the portfolio.. even while perceiving oneself to have quite a few options..


Even though there could be some sense in what you are saying here.. you seem to be talking quite a bit of nonsense too.. so hopefully some of my points will be made more clear in terms of various strategies in terms of whether a guy/gal/institution is in accumulation stage, maintenance stage or liquidation stage, so the strategies may well differ depending on what stage you are in, and surely I am not advocating for any kind of selling while in the earlier stages of accumulation, yet we know that any person/entity is going to have more options after they have reached some kind of decent and meaningful stake in BTC.. and for sure I am not advocating getting in and out of BTC like some kind of a gambling fool, which seems to be the way you are inclined to describe ways to consider BTC portfolio management and/or preferred courses of action.
 

 Here's the part where maybe you are starting to get annoying.

 :D :D :D :D


You seem to be misunderstanding me.

I am saying that if a person is feeling timid about investing in BTC, then they should engage in some considerations to reduce the amount that they decide to invest into BTC rather than NOT investing in BTC at all.  Frequently, people consider investing in something like BTC as a kind of all or nothing proposition, so I am trying to make a point about some of the ways that individuals or even institutions can attempt to tailor their allocation in accordance with their level of fear or their level of bullishness in regards to their view about BTC as an investment.  I doubt there should be needs to make very many adjustments in regards to if we happen to be in a bear market or a bull market, even though I do understand and appreciate that a lot of people are affected by what kind of market they feel that we are in, so what kind of market we are in does have to come into play from time to time, but the overall attempts to plan ahead should end up being helpful for anyone to frame their investment approach in broader ways in order that they are not having to make any kinds of major changes that are based on market changes.  Hopefully some of these matters will become more clear after I flesh out a few of the OPs that will go into more discussions regarding portfolio management considerations.
 

It's a bit unclear to me about what kind of hypothetical that you would like to use here.

I could give less than two ratt's asses about trying to time the market, yet I understand that it can make a difference if someone had been in bitcoin for a while and reached his/her accumulation goals and maybe even gone beyond his/her accumulation goals prior to the 2017 run up.. but if someone was in early stages of BTC accumulation then there may hardly be any fruitfulness in trying to time the market.

Sure I understand that both during the 2017 price run up and surely for sure afterwards we see that there was a large price fall (85% fall in total), but still we are not knowing those kinds of matters with any kind of certainty while in the midst of them.  Many folks had considered that the 2017 price run was going to top in the $3k to $5k arena, and some of those folks sold large quantities of their bitcoin hoping for the price to come back down, but the price ended up doing 4x to 6x more than expected.

I think that part of my point is going to be that any of us are going to have way more options after we have either been in BTC for a while or we have a decent amount of stake in BTC right preceding the run up... and surely I am not going to be trying to get into any kinds of playing around strategies that involve trying to time the market with any kind of precision beyond perhaps just attempting to play the BIGGER price swings after already achieving or surpassing BTC accumulation goals.  I surely do not suggest or promote trading techniques as ways to accumulate more BTC, even though those techniques can work for some specialized folks, but the vast majority of normies should not be fucking around with that, so if you are trying to suggest that a lot of people should be engaging in the kinds of calculations that you are suggesting above, then we are surely viewing BTC investing from a differing perspective and you are likely to be hard-pressed to get me to agree to various techniques that I consider as gambling rather than investing.



 I doubt that I have completely laid out my strategy yet... so maybe some of these comparison and contrasting would be premature.  I will concede, however, that my various techniques are not striving to maximize profits necessarily, and even a more mature investor might just be taking off some of the risk or shaving some profits along the way and largely just riding out the ups and downs.  Of course, specific approaches are likely going to vary too.. so part of my initial concerns are going to be dealing with more basics that involve whether an investor into BTC is in early or late accumulation stages, and surely if high levels of accumulation has already occurred then there will be more options.  Again, I am not advocating accumulation through selling, so you may be barking up the wrong tree if you want to be promoting that kind of an approach to BTC accumulation...



 
You seem to be repeating your mischaracterization of what I said....

maybe one aspect of my approach deserves repeating here.  When I refer to BTC accumulation, I suggest that there are three main strategies which are 1) dollar cost averaging (DCA), 2) lump sum investing and 3) buying on dips.  I consider the first two to be more powerful than the third; however, the third one can be meaningfully employed once the first two are figured out.. and for sure, I am not too BIG of a fan for giving too much priority to the third strategy even though you seem to want to emphasize such strategy - but at the same time, I consider the third strategy to be good once the other two strategies are in place, and surely another aspect is for investors into BTC to just to be clear about various other particulars of their circumstances, and if they have worked out their particulars such as cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, their timeline, their risk tolerance and their time, skills and abilities to plan, research, learn and tweak along the way which would include determining the extent to reallocate from time to time, or trade or the use of financial instruments including margin/leverage or other kinds of tools that might be available to them... and for sure, the latter skills of employing financial instruments is more sophisticated than simple trading and pure DCA is more simple than trading.. and so I surely am suggesting for the vast majority of normies to start out with the most basic/simple of strategies first before advancing to more complicated strategies, and don't get simple mixed up with not getting sufficiently richie.  Bitcoin has been and likely continues to be such an asymmetric bet to the upside that there are really decent chances to get rich as fuck without even employing complicated methodologies, and furthermore, maybe the best way to avoid from NOT getting as richie as you could would be to make sure that you are not overly complicating matters when basic techniques continue to have great potential in bitcoin in terms of causing and increasing richie status for many normies who might not otherwise have those kinds of investments available to them.


Fair enough to assert that BTC's historical price performance does not guarantee future results, and maybe some of my further fleshing out of my ideas in the 5 above OPs would be helpful to clarifying my intended use of such models to attempt to show where we are at, how we got here and to thereby attempt to assign probabilities to where we might be going.  Of course, the future is not predictable with any level of certainties and the best we can attempt is to assign accurate probabilities from our own point of view and then attempt our best to prepare for scenarios that we believe to be more likely in proportion to how we assign their likelihood, and of course, in that regard we should be attempting to prepare for a variety of scenarios, and surely we are not going to be completely prepared for every single scenario because sometimes minority scenarios end up playing out and we would not want to be caught completely unprepared for some scenarios merely because they have low likelihoods of happening.. but at the same time, for example, we should not be putting 50% preparations into scenarios that may well only have 1% or 2% odds of happening... and of course, new information or new happenings will end up causing likelihoods for various scenarios to change, so there remains benefits in being able to have flexibilities in terms of what is more likely at any given time but also to be able to make some adjustments when some of our preparations might not have been adequate in terms of scenarios that later are determined to be more likely than they had been previously.

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

Congratulations on this topic.
Personally,  I feel that most members here are basically all in in cryptocurrency and ignore traditional assets. I am not one of these people.

I will share my personal experience and strategy here.

When I learned about bitcoin in 2017 I decided I was going to put 3 to 5% of my overall portfolio in it.
It was like a fun money, a gamble. I wasn't going to sell it on 1000%. I wanted it to exploded.

So I holded it when we jump from 2500 to 20000, and from 20k to 3k.

I just holded , and I am selling just small parts of my stash each month (as I said earlier,  I sell about 5k usd every month because there is a tax free law in Brazil below 5k usd)

This strategy fits my overall personal finance strategy. 

Most of my portfolio consist  of bonds and ETF, which I believe are more solid. I will never have less than 10% of my bitxoin in my portfolio just because I am too involved in it, and I am really bullish about it.

my portfolio management is not about selling the hoard at all..
i am a hoarder. i still have my stash from 2012.

my premiss is about the accumilation to add more at the best rates possible to add to the stash
nothing about what i said involves selling.

its simply if your average regular investment is say 5% of regular income. and the price today is $48k knowing that it can go into the $65k range or the $40k range as thats the window of the last couple months.

then increasing to 7% at $43k if the price dips. 9% if $40k and if your lucky to see the price go down to below $40k increase to 11%, take advantage of the lower prices.

not increase to 9% if the price rises to $65k+, as you have promoted
..
for me. i dont even value my hoard. i dont get emotional about my hoard. i have no clue what the dollar total of my hoard is as of todays price because i never value my hoard daily. i have no intention to sell it now so why bother even knowing what its worth now.

what i do is just look at the advantages i can take to buy cheap coins when the price is lower than the last ATH and not buy coins when the price looks like its peaking near or above a previous ATH

i buy the dips and just not buy the hype.

if people are looking to hoard for 1-5-10 years. there is no point in/no reason to value the hoard daily and getting emotional about it. your not gonna touch it. so dont think about it,
leave it at the side untouched and unvalued.

the only thing to concentrate on is your regular buy-in amount. and how much value you can gain from the regular buy-in trades by looking at the risk of 'buy low vs buy high'

its literally explaining the risk level in the term
buy low(low risk) vs buy high(high risk)

and that should be as simple as buy less at high and buy more at low
nothing at all to do with selling

Thanks.  I did go back and forth in my head for a while regarding whether I should create this topic or not, and surely once I started to embark upon it, questions regarding how to frame the issues were not exactly clear to me.. so hopefully, i will at least be able to flesh out some of the first 5 pages of OP. and then not make it too confusing if some of the information is not necessarily going to be evergreen, so there are likely going to be some needs for revisions from time to time, and hopefully I will be able to accomplish some if not most of the revisions without losing the earlier perspectives.. .. I  am not sure how that is going to work.. because for example, if I end up posting a chart that shows my assignment of probabilities on x date, then surely one month or two months or six months later, those revisions might NOT be large, but they are sufficiently large enough to cause some potential necessity to show the earlier version in contrast to the later version.. .. so I am still not sure how I am going to deal with revisions while at the same time attempting to NOT overly edit out material and significant information (especially if it might show that I was either right or wrong about some issue.. and then subsequent edits might lose the earlier claims that had been made, perhaps?)


Personally, I believe that there is going to be a decent amount of nuance, so surely there are going to be a variety of ways to allocate portfolios, and for sure if you are brand new to investing, then you might start out your positions way more heavily weighted in various crypto.. and really I am not going to want to get into any of the possible balances that might be considered in regards to other non-bitcoin crypto investing, but you never know whether changes of the times might cause me to have to reconsider my interest in non-bitcoin crypto investing.  I may well try to treat aspects of the topic more generally ... because surely, I am not interested in talking about some of those topics.. especially shitcoins and then when it gets into some goals that people might have to trade shitcoins in order to increase their bitcoins, so there surely might be some tensions with some of the balancing of those ideas in this thread.

As far as making investments in other asset classes including equities and property or keeping some money in cash or even in precious metals (PMs) such as gold or other PMs, I think that it is going to be appropriate to attempt to ongoingly address those kinds of trade-offs, and for sure there is going to be some differences, again, with folks who had already established some of their earlier investments, and still those investments are not going to be going away including the idea of hedging including the idea of relative trade offs in storage of value and including utility considerations, too.  So the extent of the relevance to this topic might be more general because for sure from my perspective and even my area of topical interest, there will be more needs to attempt to stay mostly focused on bitcoin and to leave the details of some of the other possible investments for other places.. even if some general references or some levels of details might be acceptable and even appropriate from time to time. again from my discretionary point of view and also part of the justification for creating a self-moderated topic rather than leaving the subject matter to forum admins/moderators.



Great.. nice to bounce off some ideas.. while hopefully attempting to mostly preserve OPsec, too.


Well $2,500 to $20k is nearly a 1,000% (or 10x), so that would meant that you had the potential of meeting your goal, if you had been concerned about shaving some off in the upside... of course, in this thread, I am going to want to be trying to talk about the value in considering both tops and bottoms, especially when it comes to bitcoin , and surely I have come to appreciate more about ways to attempt to consider bottoms at least in terms of some of my current frameworks in my BTC management and aspirations.


For sure, we should be talking about these kinds of matters too.. if you believe that you are in a kind of maintenance stage or a liquidation stage or if you have other considerations.  I am more likely going to talk in terms of percentages rather than actual dollar amounts or I will talk about some hypotheticals in order to attempt to make points regarding possibly generating cashflow from BTC holdings.


I believe that I can somewhat presume that if you had an initial goal of not really shaving off any profits until you were at least 10x in profits, then surely anything above $25k meets your goal if you had maintained a cost per BTC of around $2.5k.. .. and for sure, those kinds of calculations seem reasonably fair, and I expect to be discussing some of that more in this thread and also presenting some of those kinds of ideas in OP, too.


Yes.. hopefully, we can discuss some of these ideas further, and for sure, I had already mentioned that if you have achieved a kind of overallocation in BTC due to its appreciation rather than putting value into it, then quite a few options can develop from having overallocation due to profits.. .. and so we know that some traditional financial advisors or consultants are restricted in the various ways that they can manage portfolios, and they sometimes want to propagate ideas about how to manage portfolios based on restrictions that they have to follow, and in several senses, individuals have way more flexibility than those traditional financial consultants/advisors, and there may well be instances in which it is way more to our advantage to not reallocate into losers and to let our winners ride.. .. so we may well understand that we are not having to reallocate merely for the sake of reallocating but instead considering the extent to which our situation might justify some (if any) reallocations or just continuing to allow the winners to ride, and in this case I am mostly talking about bitcoin, but for sure there could be some other investments such as bitcoin related investments that cause several aspects of a guy's portfolio to have  lot of bitcoin allocated into it, and s/he is faced with potentially conflicting information regarding whether it might or might not be justifiable to reallocate away from having too much value that is tied to bitcoin .. or too much value that is tied to the dollar or some other asset category that may or may not be good for your finances or for your psychology.

My main point here is not 1000% or whatever. 1000% is not enough for me, I started tô sold on about 45k, which is nearly 2000%, but I am not really selling too much of my stash. I will be selling for as long as possible using the tax free range, but I am not really dumping my stash.

I don't have a number for really aggressive sell offs, maybe in 100k, 150k? I really don't know.



I am no professional,  but I do my own decisions s without any consultors.

I buy mostly IWDA (developed countires) and EIMI (emergents) etfs  , and now I am searching about EMXC (emergents excluded China, because I don't think that country is going anywhere)

On bonds, I focus in Brazil because I live here. Anyone can just buy Brazilian treasure bonds for 15% apy (inflation plus 5%) which is more than enough for me.

My portfolio is basically that, and I am slowly relocating my btc gains to those few assets.

Some of your responses do NOT read as being consistent with this kind of an approach to bitcoin.

Many of us can appreciate that time in the market is much better than attempting to time the market.  Bitcoin has shown itself to be a kind of poster-boy for this concept.

So if you had a fairly consistent DCA strategy since your forum registration date in September 2012, then you would not have even had to have invested very much in order to have very strong returns.

If you have strong returns and a good position, then I have trouble understanding why you would want to be recommending fucking around with trying to time the market when DCA has been very powerful in bitcoin and is likely to continue to be very powerful in bitcoin.

Again, let's take your forum registration date.. If I plug in a modest DCA of $10 per week, that would put you at about 28 BTC (https://dcabtc.com?sd=2012-09-03&sda=custom&f=weekly&d=9_years&ac=1000&c=true), and of course, you can do variations of aggressiveness in order to show higher levels of performance, so even $50 per week will put you at 5x that amount at 140 BTC (https://dcabtc.com?sd=2012-09-03&sda=custom&f=weekly&d=9_years&ac=5000&c=true)... So I am having trouble understanding why you might want to consider that you would have needed better performance than that?

Sure, the more aggressive approach of investing more does give you higher performance, but I still would consider that DCA'ing is a very powerful strategy that can be supplemented by lumpsum buying and by buying on dips, and no need to be fucking around with selling in order to try to time the market.. but of course, once youhave established a decent sized  BTC stash, then of course, you can make decisions based on individual circumstances to play around with some portion of your stash;. hopefully not large amounts.. such as greater than 10% of your stash, but hey, people are going to have tendencies to gamble, but I have always been concerned about preserving capital, so really I do not want to be screwing around with more than about 10% of my stash, even though I understand that adults are sometimes going to come to different trade offs and balancing than me.


Fair enough about my having had understood you to be suggesting selling to buy back cheaper, and so we agree that tends to be a risky approach.

At some point, I will flesh out my ideas a bit better, but of course, I already mentioned that I believe DCA is the crux of any BTC accumulating approach.. and if buying on dips is meant to supplement DCA'ing then of course, there can be some pre-set buying on dip orders already set up, and if you do not buy through buy orders, then you can attempt to buy manually on dips too..

Of course if you already have a decent stash of BTC, then you can be a bit more strategic in terms of waiting for dips to buy and pre-decide how much of a dip you want before triggering you to buy.  After seeing some further discussion from you, we might NOT have very different views in regards to buying on dips.. perhaps.

 

You still seem to be mis-describing what I had been saying, and I do not disagree with attempting to be strategic about buying on dips.. but I still do believe that the practice of buying on dips is quite a bit more sophisticated than pure DCA, so in that regard, DCA remains a better overall strategy as a staple practice... so that you are not spending too much time trying to figure out if there is a dip, how much dip do you need and a variety of other factors that might cause too much waiting rather than just buying on a regular basis.

Of course, quite a bit of this will depend on the particulars of the person and how much time s/he wants to spend watching the charts or trying to be strategic about his/her buys... If the person is an absolute beginner, then the best way to start is just figuring out how much of a DCA to begin to employ based on assessing personal circumstances, whether that is $10 per week or $100 per week or some other suitable amount, and then perhaps after setting up the DCA, the study into bitcoin and try to figure out if there might be ways that s/he would like to supplement his/her BTC accumulation in order to attempt to reach some target levels more quickly, if there might be some kinds of time preferences or investment amounts that are wanted to be achieved by a certain time period.
 

I would think that it is better to know how many BTC you have and what they are worth and also to have some ideas regarding your cashflow and the value of your various other investments rather than not knowing.  Once you know these various particulars, then you likely put yourself into a way better position in terms of figuring how much you want to buy/sell on a regular basis and maybe even figure out how much you need to have in order to reach entry-level fuck you status and perhaps even to be able to sustain a lifestyle that allows you to stay in fuck you status.... I do intend to flesh out several of these kinds of concepts further in this thread and to place the concepts at various points in the 5 OP posts.. and surely it seems to me that if you do not want to make those kinds of assessment regarding your own personal finances and psychology, then from my point of view you seem to be purposefully handicapping yourself in terms of knowing whether whatever you are doing is working, effective or needs to be tweaked in one way or another. 

Of course, to each their own in terms of NOT wanting to assess your finances and/or your psychology (of course, you do not necessarily need to share any of your details withus or in this thread), but I would still think that you are even in a better position to even talk about what you are doing or to criticize the views and/or actions of others if you have a pretty decent grasp upon what you are planning, what you are doing, the effectiveness of what you are doing and if it is affecting you one way or another psychologically or financially.   
 

Nothing wrong with that.
 

Sounds a bit superficial in your assessment or even your description of when you might be triggered by what is hype or not hype.. For sure, I believe that BTC buying needs to have pretty strong components that involve personal assessments, and hype (or however others might be feeling) does not play any kind of strong role in my usual assessment, even though sometimes market sentiment can be one factor to take into account too.. depending on circumstances... but my own personal approach is that I tend to think about my situation in advance and then I set up my various buy or sell orders. 

When I first started buying BTC, I also had a weekly allowance.. at least for the first year, and then after the first year, I was a little bit less strict upon myself in terms of giving myself an allowance, but I still tended to set some parameters for what I was doing whether it involved setting buy/sell orders, and figuring out spreads between buys/sells, increments on one side or the other and amounts... once those systems were already in place, then I would not tend to change them based on what other people think or where the price might be going, so that for the vast majority of instances the price would be coming to me.  If the price goes up then I sell small amounts and if the price goes down I buy... so currently I have buy orders that start at about $44.5k and go down in $1k increments down to about $20.5k, and if the BTC price goes lower than $20.5k, I will need to reassess if I am going to buy more or just HODL. 

On the way up, I have sell orders that start at $52.5k and initially they are $1k increments, but then they go to $2,500 increments and then $3,333 increments, and currently they go up to $150k.. if the price goes higher than $150k, I will set some more orders, but I have outlines that show the anticipated value of my BTC and the value of my anticipated dollars that go up more than 100x current price, and surely those are just outlines, because in 2017, it seemed that the price went up so fast that my earlier charts did not project very well up to $20k.. but I was able to extend and this time up to $70k was not too taxing on figuring out matters, and I have the sense that my charts give me pretty decent outlines and sure it has not hurt for me to reassess from old charts to see where I ended up at certain price points in comparison to where I had expected to be.  So I find a lot of that analysis helpful to figure out if I might feel better to tweak my plans in one direction or another in order to just feel appropriately balanced depending on if the price goes up and down within a range for a while or if the price ends up going down quickly or up quickly and then I have some sense of where I expect to be financially (which thereby helps my psychology in terms of ending up somewhere far from expectations).
 

Those are strange ideas, franky1.  Of course, I agree with your point about preferring to structure approaches to your BTC that cause you to NOT become too emotional about it, but I doubt that it is very effective to achieve a kind of emotional neutrality based on pure ignorance.  On the other hand, I do accept that people have differing approaches to how they deal with matters and how much they plan, strategize and/or think before acting.
 

Seems to me that attempting to be so narrow about your assessment of your overall stash and what you are going to do, then you are more likely to end up in positions of potential panic because you have inadequately prepared yourself financially or psychologically. 

As a starting point, sure it is likely good to know your basics in terms of how many BTC you have and how much you paid for them, and sure if you are contemplating buying more BTC, you may well want to consider if the price is going to go up during the time that you are expecting to hold your BTC, and so I cannot disagree that it is important to have at least those kinds of basics, yet I expect to be covering a whole hell of a lot in this thread in terms of possible matters to consider in terms of attempting to plan, strategize and to achieve various BTC related investment goals. Of course, anyone is free to attempt to employ any of the strategies that I discuss in this thread, and I expect that my sharing of ideas helps me to learn and also that I will be learning new strategies from other members.. and surely I will be able to consider whether to incorporate any of those strategies into what I do or plan to do in the future. 

I have already learned a lot from many members in this forum, and of course, I have not always agreed with the approaches of some members too.  So surely there can be benefits to having back and forth discussions regarding these matters, and at the same time, I appreciate that some forum members likely do just fine with their BTC portfolio management by employing very simple and straight-forward approaches.


Yes.. having some of the basics under your belt is likely a good thing.  Also, if you spend 9 years buying bitcoin, but you never sell, then we have already seen that bitcoin has had a lot of tendencies to go up in price and to break new all time highs, so it becomes pretty damned difficult to screw anything up, in terms of being in profits if you have spent the last 9 years buying bitcoin.  Of course, there have been a lot of up and down periods in the past 9 years too, so if you were able to buy at the bottom of some of the waves you may well have gotten more bitcoin than if you bought at the top of various waves.. but in any event, if you never sold, then no matter what you should be in profits, and so whether or not you beat a kind of pure DCA strategy might be another story.

The DCAbtc.com links that I provided earlier show that a 9 year buying of BTC starting in September 2012, then you should at least have in the ballpark of close to 3,000x price appreciation.  So there ends up being some question regarding how much you put into BTC in order to figure out how many options that you end up having from being able to take advantage of that passage of time with your investment.  On the other hand, if you had lump sum invested at any point in 2012, you would likely have even better returns than 3,000x.. so there can be some differences in personal BTC portfolio performance depending on how you went about it.. and even the pretty BIG ASS screw ups, may still be sitting in a decent place if they ONLY bought and never sold. 

So perhaps some of the devil is in the details franky1.. ?  even though I am not really asking you to give up any OPsec, but if you want to be helpful to others, you may well need to get into some details, even if none of us can go back in time and fix the situation and we can ONLY invest and take action based on what we have in front of ourselves right now and attempt to plan, consider and strategize the best plans to accumulate or to manage our BTC portfolios (if we have any) that we can and hopefully learn how to tweak what we have, as needed too.

---

Fair enough.  I was not really trying to trap you into any specifics except to just recognize that anything above $25k would rise to the level of at least 10x.. so surely not a bad place to be. ..so it is kind of icing on the cake to get even higher returns. 

As I had already mentioned, in recent times I have been just using an average cost of $1k per BTC for myself in order to make some of my calculations easy, and to still be able to make various points about why should any of us care very much if we might end up shaving off some of our stash at 30x, 50x or 70x.. There is a certain amount of confidence that comes from both having a lot of profits no matter the price that some BTC is shaved off, and even perhaps not really feeling any kind of pressure to shave off large amounts and still be satisfied.


I had been considering that kind of a dilemma too and if there might be some kinds of logical price points to consider the increased shaving off of some extra BTC on the way up (if the price does end up going  up)...   

Sure, I already have a practice of shaving off BTC on the way up, and I also already have a practice of sometimes shaving some extra off on the way up, yet since I have a tendency to act in incrementalist ways, then if I end up creating a plan to shave off extra then I would end up engaging in such extra shavings within a range...   So for me, if there were a plan to shave off normally up to $92k, and then perhaps I had a plan to shave off 2% to 4% on the way up to $200k, but then if I start to consider that $200k might be the top, then I might decide to alter my plan to shave off 4% to 8%... But there could be some dilemmas in terms of deciding whether to be more aggressive or not.. or maybe make an attempt to be more systematic about it in terms of maybe treating the range from here to $62k in one kind of way and then the range from $62k to $92k in another kind of way, and then from $92k to $112k in even another kind of a way, and then maybe treating the range from $112k to $200k in another kind of way.  Currently, I have ONLY placed sell orders up to $150k, and so there are already some contained assumptions in those sell orders, but those sell orders are not locked in stone - but if I were to tweak those sell orders in one way or another, I am ONLY going to tweak incrementally, because I do not tend to play BIG... and generally speaking I can already see who some of those changes end up playing out on a spreadsheet, so I can spend some time considering whether I feel content to those numbers, even if the BTC price goes shooting up more or in the event that the numbers are not reached in this cycle and there ends up being some kind of a long drawn out correction period at some point prior to the sell orders executing.


I am pretty much the same.


I don't have those kinds of investments.  I have various kinds of index funds and then some kinds of property.. .. and some cashflowing arrangements.


Sometimes I do also consider whether there might be some other kinds of investments that I can make, but even when I came to bitcoin in 2013, I had quite a bit of traditional investments in the various index funds and I had even tried some more aggressive index funds in 2013, 2014 and maybe even part of 2015 before deciding to just leave my various traditional investments alone and to focus more on the BTC values.. so in that regard, I got a little worried that my money would be better allocated to bitcoin.. so my various traditional funds did constitute around 86.5% of all of my investments and my bitcoin were like 13.5%, and the traditional funds did end up growing about 70% over those 8 years, but the bitcoin grew about 40x to 150x (depending on how calculated).. even though my profits were probably less than 20x.. but the way that I managed my funds ended up causing the traditional funds to constitute about 10% and the BTC to constitute about 90%... and that is the current relative location.. even though sure there is some cash value in there too... that is more likely considered as part of the my moneys that go in and out of my BTC holdings.

So, yeah each of us make decisions, and surely I had considered that I could completely live off of my various traditional funds that only constitute 10% of the total value, but with some of the liquidity, supply chain and virus matters and various other weird government responses, I sometimes wonder if I could actually live off that 10% in those various traditional funds.. maybe there are some aspects that my expected standard of living is to expect that my BTC is going to continue to retain value that is likely going to continue to be much more than my traditional investments.. and whether I feel that I need to make any other investments or not would merely just for various kinds of incidental steps perhaps.  I do have some other intentions for my BTC.. in terms of possibly creating a trust or a business.. that generates cashflows.. but that is another topic that I may well be getting into a topic of another thread that I intend to make in the future.

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]

Administrative details:

December 16, 2021
Revised Opening Post 4 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719593#msg58719593) to include my probability assignments for BTC high price (amount) and for when the top of this cycle seems likely to happen.


December 28, 2021
Revised Opening Post 3  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591) added entry-level fuck you status discussion and chart to attempt to project out 208-week moving average based on about an expected 75% per year increase in such indicator.


Response:

The reason that I use the terms accumulation, maintenance and liquidation is because they are recognize-able.

Also, I don't disagree with your characterization of these concepts and practices to be on a range or a spectrum, even though there may well be points in time in which a bitcoiner would be very largely stuck in one part of the range rather than another part. 

For example, Let's say that someone comes brand new into bitcoin, yet s/he is NOT really sure about bitcoin as an investment; however, after a few weeks of looking into the matter decides to give it a try, and therefore creates a 6 month budget in order to accumulate bitcoin while further looking into the matter.  S/he has $6,000 lump sum and another $6,000 of extra income that is coming in for the next 6 months.   So the initial budget is $12k in total. 

Even if our hypothetical person may have considered possible ways to liquidate his/her BTC (just in case there are emergency circumstances), those initial 6 months might well be almost exclusively focused on BTC accumulation.  Perhaps a combination of strategies to accumulate, as I already mentioned in OP - which would be DCA, lump sum investing, and buying on the dip.   

When getting close to the close of the first 6 months, the hypothetical person might want to decide how to go forward, whether to continue to accumulate or to just go into a maintenance or liquidation mode or some combination of the modes depending on BTC conditions.  People can do whatever they want; however, my recommendation would be for the treatment of bitcoin as a longer term investment of at least 4-10 years, but it is understandable that people might not get to the point in which they are comfortable both financially and psychologically to treat bitcoin as a long term investment.

So, let's get back to our hypothetical person, and let's say after the first 6 months investing into bitcoin, s/he has decided that s/he is going to aggressively invest into bitcoin to get his/her BTC holdings up to 10% of his/her total investment portfolio.  S/he already has a total investment portfolio that is somewhere in the ballpark of $200k, so s/he considers that another 6 months investing around another $8k into bitcoin could well bring him/her in the ballpark of 10%, which might end up being a total of $20k invested into bitcoin.

After reaching the target investment level, then there might be some further questions regarding how to go forward, and of course, after investing into BTC for nearly a whole year, there should have been opportunities to further study into the bitcoin matter, and I would argue that if the goals had been to get to 10%-ish allocation into bitcoin, there might not have been too much waffling around regarding whether s/he might want to employ any other tactics beyond accumulation strategies.  I surely argue against selling or the use of margin in order to accumulate bitcoin; however, I am not against leveraging (or the use of debt instruments).

So, surely almost any year long period of being involved in bitcoin could well end up showing a variety of ways in which bitcoin tends to be volatile, so surely there could be some ideas that come to any HODLer of BTC regarding what strategies might be employed to deal with volatility, especially after reaching or getting close to reaching accumulation targets, and maybe how anyone deals with these kinds of questions would partly depend upon whether their BTC holdings are in the negative or positive after reaching accumulation targets.

My own BTC holdings were largely negative for a couple of years of my involvement in BTC, so I choose to continue to accumulate during that time, and even my very first BTC purchase of about $1,200 per BTC was in the negative from late 2013 until about March/April 2017, so that was more than 3 years of being in the negative for that particular first BTC purchase.  There can be a variety of ways that any of us might deal with our BTC portfolio management, and surely in my first year into bitcoin, I had thought that I had largely reached my BTC accumulation goals by late 2014 after my first year into BTC, but I decided to continue to accumulate, which was partly based on my total BTC holdings continuing in the negative, but by the time late 2015 came, I did start to employ more of a hybrid approach of accumulation and maintenance. 

I understand that a lot of investors (whether younger or maybe just don't have a lot of capital to bring into BTC) are likely to take way longer than me to reach meaningful BTC accumulation goals, so if someone is getting into bitcoin and maybe only has about $100 per week that can be invested, and maybe after 3-4 years might start to build a decent sized BTC investment and might even be able to increase his/her BTC investment amount to $200 per week or $300 per week, but it still could take a decently long period of time to reach BTC accumulation targets, and surely I am not recommending to employ selling or trading tactics in order to attempt to reach BTC accumulation targets faster, but instead, I tend to suggest that BTC accumulation targets should be met or exceeded before getting into any of the more complicated tactics of selling or trading BTC.

Bump:

Administrative details:

Revision log:
May 11, 2022
Revised Opening Post 4 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719593#msg58719593) to add Downity scenarios at the bottom of the post.

May 19, 2022
Revised Opening Post 4 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719593#msg58719593) to edit Downity scenarios at the bottom of the post.

I was dumbfounded as I finished reading this thread. What a wonderful education and informative knowledge. After reading the thread I also guess that JayJuanGee is an economics scholar or Economics related course. From his writing skills and patterns.
That is by the way. Please bump this thread for people to see and read always.



I was discussing with friends last week and one of them said, trading is like gambling because one can lose all the Investment in the process of trading and also gain in the process of trading and I also see reason on the discussion, because trading also used prediction as gambling. I Know that they are not the same but in reasoning they are synonymous.

Damn amazing post Jay

What other assets do you think are worth considering in the current economic situation?


It’s just gambling if you don’t know what you’re doing and acting blindly. Acquiring shares of companies or something like gold, silver has nothing to do with gambling, capital needs to be allocated where value is created, for an economy to function.

Sell means Buying Again from a setisfied price close to me.

If you are selling Intelligently sell on a Price in which you are not lossing much and Market is in its Top Blossom then Market will make corrections Buy such dips and stay Happy as Taking profit as well not lossing valueable assets.

I have some higher education and graduate school work and then some career (work) experience that had dealt with analyzing information, critically assessing the information and then making recommendations in regards to the findings or persuasiveness of the information.

I have not really considered my research and writings in regards to bitcoin to have been very academically based nor very technologically (such as coding skills or cryptography skills) informed, but instead attempts to help myself and others to brainstorm ideas from more of a layman's point of view in order that we might be able to achieve better assessments of our own financial and psychological situations in order to help us to better tailorize our decisions whether to get involved in bitcoin, and if so how to allocate finances and energies in accordance with our personal particulars.

Surely, I feel that I have been ongoingly studying these matters related to bitcoin since getting into bitcoin in late 2013, and surely some of my attempts to help others through the forum are likely more centrally meant to help myself too in better understanding my own approach and framing and reframing and consideration and reconsideration of the dynamic nature of bitcoin-related information.


You are correct that I should probably try to bump this thread more frequently - even though from time to time, I feel that I need to tweak or update some of the posts contained within the thread to make them more comprehensive and more timely in terms of the sometimes assessment of price dyanamics that might get outdated...  or to maybe add some content on some other related topics that I find interesting and I have discussed in some other threads.


It does seem as if investing and gambling are on a spectrum in terms of there are ways to engage in behaviors that are more towards one end of the spectrum or the other end of the spectrum, but they are likely not completely pure concepts in terms of being separable from one another as sometimes folks like to talk in terms of black and white absolutes.

Trading does seem to have a lot of aspects that are closer to gambling rather than to investing, even though there are ways that trading can be employed to hedge risk, so in that regard be incorporated as part of an overall investing strategy. and likely if any of us are wanting to consider trading as investing we would likely need to attempt to trade in bigger and wider gaps to offset risks or to serve as insurance rather than considering trading in terms of shorter term profit making. but I suppose there are some folks who can become really good at trading in such a way that they feel that they are not really taking very many risks because they are striving to set up their orders in such a way to take both sides, so they are merely hedging their bets which could end up fitting more within a kind of investing perspective rather than a gambling perspective.

I would also speculate that the more informed that you are regarding various factors, then it is likely that you are more able to set your bets in accordance with the probability of one outcome versus another outcome, so in that sense there would likely be less risk-taking involved. and it would fit less on the spectrum of gambling, even though some folks will still want to characterize such perspective and practices as gambling.

It seems that when we are talking about how to accumulate BTC, I am recommending to accumulate BTC through dollar cost averaging, buying on dips and lump sum investing.. also HODL would apply within the same accumulation strategy that I am attempting to recommend.  

I do not recommend selling BTC and buying back cheaper as a BTC accumulation strategy, and so in my own personal approach to BTC, I do not really get into trading as a recommended practice until getting to either the maintenance stage or to the liquidation stage.  I also believe that the use of any kinds of financial instruments is a more advanced technique, and really I am not opposed to employing various kind of leveraging in order to front load a BTC investment, but of course, front loading does take more calculations about the cost of the loan, BTC's likely direction and having other sources of income to service the debt in the event that BTC prices do not go up during the period of the loan which would have been the preferred outcome., which of course is never a guaranteed outcome, even if BTC's price direction happens to be looking quite favorable (bullish).

So if we set our targets regarding how much BTC we would like to accumulate in terms of percentage of our overall investment portfolio, perhaps starting out with something like a target that 1% to 25% of overall investment portfolio would be allocated in BTC, so once we reach our target level of BTC or even if we have overachieved our target, then we may well have more options in terms of starting to employ some selling as the BTC price goes up, and using those proceeds to buy back as the BTC price goes down.  Surely these kinds of techniques of selling on the way up and buying on the way down could be considered as trading and gambling, but I would not consider them to fit so well in the category of gambling because largely we can preset the BTC selling amounts and the price and then just let the price come to our set amount.  

If the BTC price does not go to the point in which we had set our sell order, then no sale is made... so we can structure the various sell points in a kind of laddering manner on the way up and choosing what amount of increments that we would like to set between each of our sell amounts and also how much BTC we would like to sell at each ladder rung level. One formula that I had frequently applied historically was selling somewhere around 1% of the value of my BTC holdings for every 10% that the BTC price goes up.  Of course those kind of formulas can be tweaked to be higher or lower, and they can be framed in different kinds of ways of flexibility, but if such a formula were to be followed you also be able to figure out how much BTC you would end up selling all the way up the spectrum to various price points and be able to figure out how much BTC you would have remaining and the value of that remaining BTC at various price points up the price ladder.  You should also be able to conclude that if your sell rate was ONLY 1% per every 10% price rise, then you would never run out of BTC by strictly following such a formula... so therefore you can figure out whether your sell strategy is overly conservative or overly aggressive depending on what you would like to achieve if the BTC price reaches your speculated price points.

I got (and modified) several of my selling on the way up ideas from Rpietila's (Risto) (RIP) 2013 Thread entitled.:  (SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.msg3697405#msg3697405)

To me it seems difficult to even put certain types of investments on a spectrum of gambling, but i also get where y’all are coming from. Let’s say you’re buying something like gold or silver, you’re getting exactly the amount you paid for and your investment can’t vanish even if market prices fluctuate(the gold will always stay in your hands). Not really a gamble.

Maybe the gambling factor comes into play when the underlying asset is ignored by the investor and the only focus is the market price and higher returns, like waiting for something to go parabolic without understanding/ being interested about what you were investing into/ or wanting to actually own the asset, if it wasn’t for money.

Now if someone is risking their asset they didn’t previously gamble on, like the people that got their Bitcoin liquidated now, because they were over-leveraged, then we’re getting into high gambling territory. This has nothing to do with sane investing anymore.

But if i actually wanna own a part of x company trough good and bad times, because i believe they deliver a great value, i dont see how it’s gambling(then owning a company would be gambling too), its simply providing liquidity to where actual value is created. It’s more like keep tuning a car till it can win a race and beyond.

To me this was the original thought behind doing investments, tho i agree that this is getting more and more lost, but people who invest with strong principles will succeed more.

Now sure if i go into 100 companies in 5 days, it’s nothing else than gambling, because no one can possibly gather enough info about the underlying assets in this short amount of time.

Now if we go into the section of investing were no more underlying asset is bought, like derivatives, we’re coming closer into gambling territory.

So i see why the both are on a spectrum.

I don't feel very comfortable getting into discussions about the various ways to apportion your investment portfolio outside of bitcoin and the dollar (or whatever other fiat that you might have as your local currency).. so of course you have to measure your circumstances to figure out what your balance is going to be.

I don't have any problem with suggesting that any young / newbie investor to begin to build his/her investment portfolio by only focusing on bitcoin and cash, and once s/he gets up to a certain decently sizable amount, such as something like $50k, then at that point to consider the extent to which further diversification might be helpful.  Of course, the decently sizable amount has a considerable amount of subjectivity - because there might be some measure in which there might be questions about whether the investor feels that s/he is starting to feel that s/he has too many eggs in one basket.  Of course property and equity funds are not bad for attempting to offset having too much specialization but it might not even be any kind of compelling need to diversify until getting to some higher amount.. whether that is $200k or $500k or $1million.... at some point for each of us, we might feel some need to NOT have all our eggs in one basket.

Property for sure can tie you down geographically, contain a lot of expenses related to maintenance, taxes, ownership transfer costs and even an attack vector for possible liabilities and lawsuits that others can easily identify that you own it and viola.. all of a sudden there is a lien on it.  But, if you are geographically tied down anyhow, and you need to live somewhere, so it is not a bad thing to store some of your wealth and to diversify outside of bitcoin (even though we also know that property is also suffering from the pumping/inflation mechanisms of the government debt systems).


I will supplement by asserting that there is value in the fact that people make different choices in terms of how much value they want to allocate into a variety of differing kinds of asset classes - and for differing reasons.   If you consider your investment into bitcoin as a hedge against the dollar in similar kinds of ways that gold and silver used to be a hedge against the dollar, you might consider that in accordance with Gresham's law, bitcoin is likely going to suck away most if not all of the monetary value of gold and silver.. and maybe there might be some be some Armageddon-like fringe scenarios in which it would have been good to have some gold and/or silver.. but in some sense bitcoin is likely 1,000x-ish better than gold already.. so is there any reason to have both.. or maybe 1% gold and 99% bitcoin.. might be a possible way of allocating that portion of your hedging against the dollar aspect of your investment portfolio,  perhaps?

Thanks man, you dont gotta go in deeper, its always hard to recommend particular assets to a broad audience, because everyone needs/ situation is different. Growing such a large portfolio will also take time, we will have enough to do our homework till then. Was still interesting hearing your take.


I actually thought about this too that getting a small amount of gold can make a whole lot of sense. Since Bitcoin will be volatile for quite some time, there could alway be some cases where we need some kind of unexpected emergency money in the moment. And then gold is perfect, because of the stability it offers.

Just like rn if someone would need money unexpectedly it would be a terrible time to sell Bitcoin. We dont have the luxury to choose yet, when to get some money out of Bitcoin, while not making big losses. With gold this doesnt really matter, its always pretty stable compared to other assets. So we could sell it easily and buy it back later. Also Gold is terrible to store in large quantities so something like 1% could give the portfolio some nice extra capabilities.


Yup theres also another a big factor investing plays for the economy, even tho i see how the whole system has become like a casino now. But if we go back to sane economics one day -> Businesses need liquidity, consumers need money.

Doing sane investments could be a win win situation for both. If consumers invested into companies theyre customers of themselves for example. The business could scale up their operations more, and the consumer gets more money to spend. But this can also go bad, if people are bad at investing and this will likely be the case. Forcing everyone to invest is probably always a bad idea for society as a whole. A hard money like Bitcoin could in theory work as an inbuilt savings mechanism for everyone(slight deflation trough lost coins), and serve people better, because they dont need to go to third parties to see their money grow, it just happens automatically and is distributed to everyone equally. Altough this still needs to be confirmed in practice.

Right now were in a bad situation for everyone, because fiat keeps devaluing so much, that it forces everyone to either spend their money fast or invest it. Now we have an education system that refuses to teach financial literacy, and we see a growing gap between poor and rich. We have one part of the population that can play this game perfectly and the other part is forced to get into something they were never prepared for. Its obvious who will win.

And why i said bad for everyone, because this tanks the economy in the process, a healthy society needs to balance itself out. If no more care is taken of poor/ workers then the system cant work out in the long run(even tho they try to keep it alive artificially) and wealth wont matter much anymore. Loose- Loose for everyone. But at the same time a system that vilifies wealthy people, will have all their prosperity run away and end in poverty for everyone. There needs to be a healthy balance between the two, smh like someone is testing us.

The world needs sound money asap.

In theory I know the points above. But as you said it turns out to really understand it takes time. And as time goes on one will understand it more and more. So experience is needed here. Even to build a strong psychological or mentality takes time or experience. Even myself was taught a hard lesson by past experiences. And the adjustments continue all the way. And to maintain the mentality of my mind and finances. So I invest in bitcoin regularly. little by little. so it's not felt. In the past I was not afraid to buy when Ath. and then there is no reason now i feel scared when i buy at 20k. because of experience and time that has sharpened the mental. because I invest not for 1 year or 2 years but I am targeting more years in the future. could it be the next 5-10 years. Although sometimes the target can change according to certain conditions. because sometimes there are certain situations that make us change the plans that have been arranged neatly (adjustments).

First of all, I am glad that you (Hamza2424) had quoted the earlier post of LegendaryK - because I was planning on responding to that post, but it appears that LegendaryK deleted his/her post.  

I am going to respond to each of the above ideas in the order presented, and for sure, there can be a lot of reasonable ways that any of us might choose to balance out our own creation and following of various sell parameters, and those sell parameters which may well not be locked in stone - so they can vary from person to person and also may vary in terms of any person's own assessments of his/her BTC portfolio allocations and what purposes s/he expects his/her bitcoin allocation to be serving for him/her.


For me, I have always considered me entrance into bitcoin as an intended longer term investment, so when I first got into bitcoin in late 2013, my thinking was that I should be attempting to consider my bitcoin investment timeline to be 1 to 2 years or longer, which would largely mean that any time that I had injected more money into BTC whether it was through dollar cost averaging (DCA), buying on dips or lump sum investing, the timeline for each of those injections of more value should be considered to be 1-2 years or longer.  

These days, I consider bitcoin to have a quite a bit stronger investment thesis as compared to where it was in late 2013, so because of that, I have largely adjusted my idea of minimum investment timeline to be 4-10 years or longer.

For sure, each person needs to decide for himself/herself regarding timeline considerations, and no one should consider that s/he is completely locked into having to stay in bitcoin for the timeline that s/he has outlined for him/herself as his/her minimum investment timeline.   Nonetheless establishing a minimum timeline may well help for establishing an acceptable framework and a kind of guide in respect to how to think about the investment into bitcoin, so even to end up cutting the timeline short there might well need to be certain things that would have to happen to trigger such cutting short - such as certain level of profits had been reached (kind of reallocation triggers) or over accumulation of BTC had ended up happening or maybe even emergency circumstances happen that force a dipping into the BTC funds.  

By the way, when I mention the possibility of emergency circumstances, I am not suggesting that anyone should be engaging in gambling (or careless risky) behaviors with his/her cashflow/ expenses that end up causing/contributing to the increased likelihood that emergencies would end up happening.  With any investments we make, we should already be figuring out quite a few ways to make sure that we are even able to invest because we need to have our shit in some kind of order before we should even be considering setting some of our value aside to make investments, whether bitcoin or any other investments.  So in that regard, there should be a certain amount of figuring out where we are at which would include assessing our cashflow sources and projecting out our expenses for several months into the future (perhaps 6 months to 24 months) and also that we have emergency funds and even perhaps back up emergency funds in order that any kind of investment that we make, including but not limited to bitcoin would end up sitting at a pecking order location in which various other emergency funds have been drained or buttressed prior to even getting into dipping into bitcoin at any time that is other than a time that is completely of our own choosing.

In essence, when investing into bitcoin there may well not be any selling that would happen at levels that are lower than our BTC allocation target - or if we might have ended up overallocating into bitcoin, then we may well have more options to sell or to reallocate at that time, so on an individual level we have to figure out what is our allocation target, and surely I have mentioned that an initial BTC investment target may well be reasonably anywhere between 1% and 25% of the value of our quasi-liquid investment portfolio.

So for example (call this one hypothetical 1) if we might have made an initial determination that a suitable BTC investment allocation for our own situation may well be 10%, so if we are brand new to investing into anything then we may well be able to reach that 10% target very quickly and easily, and since in that newbie status we do not have any other investments, then we may well decide to be more aggressive than our initial 10% assessment, and even more aggressive than the top of the 25% initial range that I had recommended, and part of our own assessment to be more aggressive and to establish even higher levels of allocation into bitcoin is based on making an assessment of our own particulars, and we might end up getting to something like 60% or higher allocation into bitcoin and the rest in cash).  

Surely we can both study the situation and project ahead, which may well cause us to tweak our BTC allocations as we go and upon reaching each of our targets along the way.  In other words, we may well not be in any kind of position to either establish a further target or to confirm that a further target is suitable until we reach the earlier targets first. So, once we reach a target, then we can make adjustments that we believe are suitable to our new (and hopefully improved circumstances) and have become justified after we had reached our targets to create new targets that are based on our having had already achieved the lower level targets and such new targets that we consider setting to be even more within our interests to reach to an even more improved situation.  

There should be some value in being able to have some constantly adjustable BTC allocation (and financial) targets that are tailored to personal financial and psychological circumstances, and the adjustments of the targets need not be characterized as whimsical because there might be some sense that the setting of new targets does not really become reasonable and/or prudent until after having had reached the lower level targets first and then reassessing whether staying on the same overall expected path or to perhaps tweak a little bit based on having had reached some greater concreteness in terms of already having had gotten to the earlier target level.

So as the amount of your accumulated BTC grows, you are able to reassess its value as compared with other investments that you have and determine whether some reallocations might be needed to be made along the way.  For sure the situation of anyone who ONLY has BTC and cash is going to be different from those persons who have a variety of other investments and presumably the expectations of growth or devaluation is going to differ or the various investments that are held including holding some of that value in fiat currencies.

So, let's look at an example of someone who already has established a relatively decently-sized investment portfolio of $100k and comes to the same conclusion that maybe 10% would be a good initial BTC allocation target amount (call this one hypothetical 2).  Accordingly, the there would be options to sell some assets within the $100k portfolio and therefore to immediately reallocate s $90/$10.  Another way would be to allocate all new cashflow or additional funds into BTC until reaching the 10% allocation, so if all of a sudden this person has an additional $11,111.11 that he could buy BTC, then his newly established portfolio of $111,111 would be comprised of 10% BTC.  Of course folks do not necessarily have an extra $11,111.11 laying around that they can all of a sudden immediately allocate into BTC, and even if it were true that such $11,1111.11 extra were to come onto the scene and could be immediately allocated into BTC, I do not necessarily recommend only engaging in lump sum investing into BTC, even if such a $11,111.11 amount were just lying around and able to be authorized to immediately be allocate into BTC with full amounts, even if they become immediately available.  

Again, there are the three categories of BTC accumulation  which are DCA, buying on dips and lump sum investing.  From my perspective, all three of those possible methods should be considered before just blindly jumping in... and if you consider all three of the options and conclude that it is best to lump sum with the total of this particular $11,111.11 that has been authorized (by you) for BTC purchases, then at least you are making a considered choice that weighs the three BTC accumulation methods before you execute upon your chosen course of how to invest that $11,111.11 and to reach your target 10% allocation amount.

Another possibility could be that you take 1 to 2 years (or however much time it takes for your own comfort level) to allocate whatever extra cashflow that you have in order to reach your 10% BTC accumulation target.  So for example, if it takes you 2 years or longer to reach your 10% target level, then you surely would not be considering getting to 10% as any kind of urgent concern of yours.. but for sure to each their own in terms of setting their targets and how urgent they consider it to be to get to their target.  So in this slower accumulation of BTC and reaching of the 10% target... So if the non-BTC portion of your investment portfolio had grown to $120k, then it may well be necessary that you have to accumulate more than $13.5k worth of BTC in order to have had invested 10% of your total portfolio value (which total has become around $132k after the BTC is added in) into BTC.

Sure the longer that it takes you to reach your BTC target allocation amounts, the more complicated some of the formulations can become regarding whether or not you have put in enough value or not into BTC.;. because the value of the BTC  is likely changing during that time, too.. and it is more likely to change in greater degrees the longer it takes you to reach your target, so it is possible that you might become confused about your target, as well.. including whether you are bing overly aggressive, or not aggressive enough.. however at the same time, you should be able to figure out those matters for yourself in terms of learning about bitcoin and learning about yourself as you go.

For example, when I first got into bitcoin in late 2013, I did not establish my initial BTC investment target based on any kind of a percentage of my total investment portfolio, but instead I authorize myself to employ an initial amount of dollars to invest into bitcoin for 6 months and gave myself a weekly allowance for how much BTC I could buy each week based on that total initially authorized amount .. which weekly allowance amount would have been dividing the total 6 months authorized amount into 26 equal parts.  

I also told myself that I would reassess my situation once the initial 6 month investment period comes close to ending, and at the end of the first 6 months, I authorized a similar kind of an approach for the next 6 months, so then by the time both of those 6 month investing into BTC periods had run (so close to a year, which would have been towards the end of 2014),  I reassessed my situation and I had considered that when I look at the total value of my quasi-liquid investment portfolio, I had pretty much reached a 10% allocation of value into BTC.  So at that point, I came to the conclusion that I had established a sufficiently aggressive stake into bitcoin, so in that regard, I should not necessarily feel any urgency in which I should feel that I need to acquire more BTC in order to feel as if I am sufficiently and adequately prepared for UP in the case that Upward BTC price movement is going to happen.

Of course, any of us should be able to look at the BTC price charts and verify that BTC had somewhat bottomed in 2014, but largely had continued to pretty much stay down in the lower to mid $200s for the vast majority of 2015 - at least until about mid-October 2015... I had run into some cashflow issues during early 2015 that was largely related to a business that I was partnering in, so my own tight cashflow situation likely stifled some of my possible higher levels of buying of BTC during that time, but even with my somewhat hampered cashflow I did continue to DCA in relatively small ways through 2015, and I did end up reaching a kind of overallocation into BTC of something in the ballpark of 13.5% into BTC.

I am pointing out the fact that I felt that I had over-allocated into BTC by having 13.5% allocated to BTC rather than my 10% target amount, which caused me to feel that my 3.5% overallocation had contributed to causing me to conclude that I had more options to shave off some quantities of my BTC whenever I wanted, so long as any portion of BTC that I were to sell would be in profits.  

In about July/August 2015, I looked at my BTC purchases to see that there were some that I bought that were clearly not in profits since the BTC price at that time was around $250 and there were some BTC that I bought that were in profits that I bought for less than the then price, so I ended up conceptually dividing my BTC into three categories: 1) those BTC that were purchased for less than $250, 2) those BTC that were purchased after a somewhat self-serving date that I selected in mid-2014-ish (which also would have included those BTC purchased for less than $250) and had an average purchase price of right around $320, and 3) all of the BTC that I had purchased, which then had an average purchase price of around $515.  

Ultimately, my dividing my BTC into three categories allowed me to create a framework and parameters upon which I would shave off portions of my BTC in order to be able to attempt to set up ways to insure for more possible downside, but also to de-risk some of my BTC holdings by moving some of the profits into cash.

For Opsec reasons, I am not going to provide actual quantities of my BTC holdings, yet in order to attempt to better understand the concept of conceptually dividing my BTC holdings and creating sales parameters based on those categorizations, we could hypothesize that within the three above categories, I had: 1) 10 BTC purchased for an average of less than $250 (which would be less than $2,500 purchase price), 2) 20 BTC purchased for an average of $320 (which would about $6,400 purchase price), and 3) 30 total BTC of all categories purchased for an average of $515 (which would be about $15,450 purchase price).

During that time (largelyJuly/August 2015-ish), I authorized myself to ONLY be able to sell at most up to 50% of the profits from my BTC in the event that BTC prices were to go up, and my actual practice ended up selling way less BTC than the 50% of profits maximum maybe even less than 20% of the profits in the beginning, and even less than 20% of profits as the BTC price went up to higher amounts throughout the subsequent years, and at various points in time, I created new formulas regarding how much BTC I would authorize myself to sell - and a lot of any justification that continued to allow me to sell BTC along the way or to skim off some profits (or even to skim off some surplus BTC value) had to do with my having had achieve overallocation of my portfolio in terms of both how much I had put into BTC but also the relatively rise in the value of my BTC as compared to other non-BTC assets in my investment portfolio allowed for further abilities to skim off profits without really worrying about overly skimming, and the BTC price continued to keep my BTC in territories of way more allocation than my initial 10% authorized amount but I never really felt as if it would be necessary to reallocate my BTC value amount back to 10%.. but instead to continue to allow my winner (BTC) to continue to ride as compared with the rest of my overall investment portfolio in which the non-BTC assets continued to experience way inferior performance as compared with BTC on 1) a historical basis 2) on a continued basis and 3) as an expected value into the future so long as I was considering BTC valuations in longer time frames of 4-10 years into the future from any given point in time to sell.

In terms of my three categories of my hypothetical BTC stash as outlined above, I was only able to calculate profits based on the 10 BTC while the BTC price was between $250 and $320, so if the BTC price went up $10, my profits would be $100, and I would only be able to sell up to half of $100, which would be $50.  

Once the BTC price went above $320, was able to use 20 BTC as my profits calculation, so every $10 the BTC price went up, I was able to skim off up to $100, which would be 50% of $200.

Once the BTC price went above $515, was able to use 30 BTC as my profits calculation, so every $10 the BTC price went up, I was able to skim off up to $150, which would be 50% of $300.

Of course there are other sell parameters that can be created.



Well, I have been selling BTC on the way up and buying back on the way down and largely using the proceeds from the BTC sales to buy back, so that would largely fit within a parameter of selling up to 1% of my overall BTC value for every 10% that the BTC price goes up, and if the BTC price never corrects back down, then those earlier BTC sales can be completely removed from the table.  

If we presume that I have gotten through BTC accumulation stages, and either reach my  BTC accumulation target accumulation level, then my selling on the way up and buying back would seem to fall more closely under a kind of way to maintain the BTC holdings.

Of course traditional valuations of investments and sustainable withdrawals would presume an ability to withdraw up to 4% of the total investment value per year - perhaps in a perpetual way, so long as the investment is returning at least 4% per year on average.

Since BTC prices tend to be so volatile on a historical basis, and arguably inevitably volatile, in the past couple of years, I have considered evaluating the value of my own BTC holdings based on the 200-week moving average rather than ONLY using BTC spot price to reach such valuations.

Of course, if BTC sales are made, then they will be made at spot price, but using the 200-week moving average is meant to evaluate the value of BTC holdings in such a way to help to with establishing both withdraw limits and also perhaps how aggressive any BTC holder might want to be depending on how far above the spot price happens to be from the 200-week moving average, and since the 200-week moving is a lagging indicator that comes from the average BTC price over the past 4 years, the spot price has tended to be higher than the 200-week moving average... .which would mean that better practices would be to try to keep sales of BTC at price locations that are quite a bit higher than the 200-week moving average rather than selling when the BTC price is close to the 200-week moving average.  I had been considering creating some kind of guidance regarding how to consider such a matter... but I have not put together such post, yet.  

Yes, currently the 200-week moving average is at about $22,300, so our current BTC spot prices have been bouncing at and below the 200-week moving average in recent days, which is not really too common of a phenomena in bitcoin history and I would not expect the BTC spot price to stay below the 200-week moving average for very long... yet of course, there are no guarantees in bitcoinlandia, either.  

The 200-week moving average can be used as a means to attempt to figure out how much BTC can be withdrawn at various times whether calculating how much BTC to withdraw per year or per quarter.  As already mentioned, traditionally investing and withdrawal systematic considerations would have allowed the use 4% per year, but since the 200-week moving average has ben historically moving up at 75% or more per year on average, there seem to be reasonable and prudent ways to potentially be quite a bit more aggressive with regularly withdrawing value from BTC holdings when using the 200-week moving average as the measuring BTC's value while at the same time maintaining the possibility for perpetual withdrawals so long as not going overboard.


I attempt to maintain and follow any kinds of BTC selling formulas in which I do not presume any ability to buy those sold BTC back at lower prices... sure, if the BTC price happens to drop after I had sold, and if I still have that money available, then I may well consider and construct systems to buy back the BTC.. but I do not presume being able to buy back any sold BTC once I have set it up for selling.

Probably another way of describing the matter is that my ongoing practices are meant to be employing a practice of ongoingly entering BTC longs.

Furthermore, I don't consider it to be a good practice or even safe to consider selling BTC in order to strive to buy back at lower prices.. That does not seem to be a correct kind of a mental framework when dealing with the best asset class that the world has ever seen.. namely King Daddy.. namely my lil precious.. and it seem to me that the best of accumulation strategies should be centered upon ongoingly buying using DCA, buying on dips and lump sum investing methods to buy until either reaching an over-accumulation state of being and/or to be in considerable profits and to be shaving from fragments of the profits, and for sure having a sufficiently long investment timeline of 4-10 years or longer helps in the riding out of likely (most likely inevitable) volatility periods - which are likely more stressful during the earlier accumulation stages, and yet can also be stressful when downward BTC price corrections can sometimes play out in such extreme ways (like we are experiencing currently)

Of course, once you reach a decently solid maintenance stage with your BTC holdings or a liquidation stage, then you will likely have more potential options (especially if your BTC holdings are in decent profits - which surely is not guaranteed either, even if you have been buying and holding BTC for a long time) and surely you should be able to be more assertive and aggressive in terms of your BTC sales the more that you are in sufficient profits and you do not consider that you are striving to buy back lower than the price that you sell your BTC.. so for sure, there should be no presumption of being able to buy back your sold BTC at any kind of a lower price than your sales price.


That seems to make sense if you are largely saying that the more you are in profits then you have more cushion when selling your BTC, but I would still not presume being able to buy BTC back at lower prices.


Surely some folks become very short-term in their thinking about BTC, and they measure the dollar value of their profits in the short-term, and there is no problem using dollar value when measuring short-term profits and even if you want to spend some of your BTC, but if you are trying to consider places to put your value for the longer term and even to potentially be able to get way more dollars in a longer time frame of 4-10 years or longer, then bitcoin is likely going to store value much better than any other asset option that any of us regular normies currently have available, but that still might not mean that we ONLY want to apportion our value in bitcoin and dollars, and sometimes it can help to buy and hold other kinds of assets including property and even stocks, and of course, if we are humans, then inevitably we are going to have ongoing expenses too.. so we do have to choose from where are we going to spend value and figure out from where we are going to spend first when we have a variety of options, and it seem that if you build your investment portfolio in a way to establish yourself into having some bitcoin as one of your possible value options as if bitcoin may well be one of the last places in which those of us holding bitcoin should be spending unless we are way overly allocated in bitcoin and we are choosing when to sell/convert some of our bitcoin into cash or some other kinds of conversion of it, but we still should be considering that we have to be careful to make sure that we have value that is available to be able to consider our various ongoing expenses so that we are not selling our bitcoin at times that are any time other than times of our own choosing.  

Initially I used this post as a Bump: because I want to avoid having my responses getting merged by the admins - because each of my responsive posts are very long..

I concede that this post no longer fits the proper/technical definition of "Bump" because I don't want to delete it, move it, edit it, or merge it.. and I hope (request @admins) that the consecutive post can stay (this time) without being merged, moved, edited or deleted..

As a self-critical expression:  "Fuck, I have to figure out some kind of way to slap my lil selfie and to stop responding with a novel in each of my responsive posts."  I'm trying to be like the horse Boxer in Animal Farm.  "I will try harder."


It is quite likely that there are a lot of overlapping ways that terms can be used, and likely when I am trying to proclaim a preference to aim for investing and to minimize or exclude gambling practices, I am attempting to suggest various ways to attempt to approach bitcoin investing in ways that are meant to have a longer time frame (such as 4-10 years or longer) and also to not be taking undue chances to make short-term bets or otherwise engage in practices that and putting capital/principle at risk.

I am not really intending to talk about edge cases in which some of the concepts of investing and gambling might overlap, because ultimately anyone can end up in an edge case kinds of a situation, and surely guys have discretion to make adjustments that might violate the preferred practices - yet at the same time, if there is an attempt to talk about general practices, then we would attempt to talk about some of the broader principles and practices and if there is success applying the broader principles and practices, then maybe edge cases might come to play under some kinds of scenarios and I might not even have any answers regarding how to deal with some of the edge case things that might come up anyhow because I am attempting to suggest some systems that are meant to have more general applicability..

Also if guys apply the various general principles that I discuss for long enough and establish their stack in BTC or meet other personal BTC accumulation goals, then some of the answers to other kinds of questions may well come into place or at least become more apparent because ultimately any investment practice should be carried out in such a way that it becomes personally owned and not following some suggestions of a somewhat random person on the internet.

Maybe I am repeating myself but the mere fact that someone is speculating on the future price of an asset does not cause that to be gambling merely because they might get it wrong.  In other words, there seems to be a kind of element in investing that involves attempting prepare, plan and  account for risks (and alternative scenarios) better than a gambler who has higher reliance on luck rather than having a plan that works for a broader variation of circumstances.  


I mostly agree that employing leverage that fails to account for extreme scenarios that could happen does seem to rise to the level of gambling rather than investing, so there might not be anything wrong with employing leverage as long as there might be plans to deal with extreme scenarios that could happen (which probably just means not to over-leverage, which might be easier said than done because there likely were some of the leveraged payers who said that they had not been over-leveraged because the BTC price does not tend to go below the 200-week moving average..anyhow, you can see where this is going, no?  Maybe if they were playing margin, then an investor might have a plan for if the BTC price goes up and a plan for if the BTC price goes down, they would not ONLY have a plan for one price direction.;.. a gambler might have a plan for only one direction and/or an insufficient hedge for if the opposite happens).


It seems to me that the difference regarding investing versus gambling for owning part of a company might relate to how much due diligence that you did before making your decision, and maybe even the tolerance of risky versus safe practices within the business can make a difference between if the part ownership of the business would fall into the category of investing versus gambling.  For example, you could have everything perfectly set up in the business, but if the business is engaging in some kind of risky practices such as something illegal (even though it does not need to engage in such risky/illegal practices in order to make a profit and to fulfill the various investment targets), then that way of carrying out the business might start to fall more into something more like gambling rather than investing.

You should be able to imagine business versus gambling approaches with the fitting of a car for racing too. there could be ways in which the behavior is reckless and ill though you (which would be more like gambling) and behaviors that are more systematic, and maybe even with long-term thinking that might fit more into a kind of an investing approach to the car.


I doubt that strong principles make a difference because it ends up most likely relying on luck if the principles are not focused in a kind of productive way that preserves and builds principle/capital rather than consuming it and just not really having any kind of meaningful plan that is a bit more systematic about both building and not losing capital and having plans that accounts for a variety of scenarios (and learning along the way), so the difference between investing versus gambling likely relates to having the right kinds of principles rather than merely having strong principles.  

For example, maybe I have strong principles that I am going to party like a wild animal and meet a lot of girls.. so I am going to have a lot of fun and I already know that the girls love me, so I am very popular until I run my whole life (and potential opportunities to build) into the ground.. but the whole time, I had strong principles and a lot of energy and charisma in regards to my philosophy and people liked me because I was confident, popular and full of energy. but I was not really building or engaging in good risk management either.. but I had a lot of fun during that whole time in my 20s and into my early 30s. and maybe even made a lot of money while assuming that the money would keep coming in, so I continued to consume it.. but by the time I reached 35, I had not really developed any skills beyond just having fun, my system of pushing boundaries all of the time strong principles was not working anymore like it used to work back in the good ole days. and my energy levels are not like what they used to be, either.  I lived in a lot of nice houses, and I even tried to save for my own house several times, but things came up.  I went on a lot of good trips, and some of them even involved some business deals, too. but they did not really pan out. even though I kept busy and I had strong principles the whole time too including that I told everyone that I was going to be rich some day (and people seemed to believe me). but I never really ever stayed focus on building anything . including my own skills beyond being able to party with the best of the.. and bouncing from one deal to the next.


There are possibly systematic ways to play large numbers too, if you have an edge and you are looking for specific things when you go into 100 companies.. so maybe going through 100 companies allows you to screen down to 5 on some kind of a criteria that you have developed.. . . but yeah, if you are lacking focus and you do not have a system, then that probably would be more like gambling.

There’s nothing i disagree with here, you rounded everything up nicely.

I think this one of the best lessons to be teached, and should be counted under having the right principles. To many people wanna outsource their decisions to others, but then loose the ability to make good decisions themselves, when it matters.

K let’s put it like this, if someone uses leverages they also have to follow the principles traders have, contrary to hodlers who can ignore some things, for example cutting losses, don’t add infinite collateral. Then it’s also about how much leverage was used, a few % of the portfolio, isn’t that risky, if you cut losses. Accepting losses is one of the mindsets that needs to be deployed here. I’m not a fan of leverage at all for most people, especially if the whole plan consisted of just one direction, like you said. The 200 wma was a nice indicator, but if the strategy failed they gotta cut, and never make all of your portfolio dependent on leverage.

This can be a lesson for everything in life, we can’t just put everything into boxes, we also gotta check how things are actually done.


The last part cracked me up ahahhahah, but you hit the nail on the head here. To me strong principles implied having the right principles, a mix of bad principles and stubbornness couldn’t be worse. And maybe there needs to be the right balance too, like everything in life. Enjoy it and have your shit together, is probably the strongest combination.

Yes, everyone is different in regards to how much they are able to put into something like BTC on a regular basis in order to grow and BTC price changes can affect both the on the spot valuations regarding how much BTC is worth versus other allocations, which can affect target levels in which accumulators/HODLers will choose whether to reallocate or just let their BTC continue to ride without reallocating it.

For example, if you already have a decently sized investment portfolio in various other assets at the time that you come into BTC, then you may well feel less compelled to either reallocate it, so even if investment fund managers and traditional financial consultants/advisors might have obligations to either reallocate/rebalance or to advice clients to reallocate/rebalance, individuals have no such mandates (or guidelines) and they can choose in regards to their own variables whether they believe that it would be prudent to reallocate/rebalance and upon which conditions they would reallocate/rebalance if they were to choose to do so (including if there might be tax consequences for such rebalancing).

Yes, some folks might be able to dedicate $100 or more per/week towards BTC accumulation/buying, and others might be in positions in which they are only able to invest $10 or less per week, so it could take a decent amount of time to reach various BTC accumulation goals/target levels or even to trigger reallocation concerns.  

Changes in personal circumstances including cashflow or even other personal matters could change how aggressive any BTC accumulator/holder might feel that they can be, and changes in BTC spot price affecting valuation of BTC previously accumulated or costs per unit of present/future BTC could affect how aggressive any BTC HODLer/accumulator feels that s/he can be, and sometimes the first feelings/impressions might not be the correct ones, such as fear when the BTC price goes down might inspire less buying rather than either continuing to buy the same amount or even stepping up some of the buys (if that might seem prudent or possible), and the opposite feelings might happen when the BTC price goes up there might develop feelings to buy more because of feelings of wealth effect.. and that might not be the best approach.. including that there might be times that it is prudent to shave off a bit of profits (maybe not too much) when the BTC price goes up in extreme amounts in short periods of time.

It seems to me that the longer that any of us are employing the tactics of BTC accumulation under whatever system that we have established for ourselves, the more clear it may well become for us to figure out ways to tailor our own strategies and approach to account for our gained experiences and to attempt to be measured (rather than emotional) in the ways that we go forward whether we choose to continue BTC accumulation on our same path or if we might believe it a good way forward to tweak our approach in any kind of significant way.  

There is no one right answer.. even if we might plot out on paper (or on an Excel spreadsheet) that we could do x, y or z and we can project out how those various courses of action (or different paths) might play out for the various possible directions of the BTC price.  If we have an Excel spreadsheet we can duplicate the tabs and then change a few variables within or even set up the Excel spreadsheet in a way that we change one reference box, such as projected percentage of price change, changes in new allocation/buy amounts over time or even changes in the timeline - though I usually like to preestablish the timeline, but sometimes there could be reasons to attempt to assess based on weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly or multiple years, and sometimes more details can be helpful and other times more details might get in the way - depending on what you might be trying to assess.

In essence, there seem to be ways to attempt to plot out our own possible course of action that contributes to our having some steady plans in which we already know at which points we might change our plan.. or if we plan to ONLY reassess at various points.. so there may be ways that we lock ourselves into a plan but also have various points that we might have pre-authorized ourselves to reassess, and none of our locking in prohibits us from totally changing the plan at any time that we would like or reassessing at a point other than we had determined previously, yet frequently if we establish a plan and then we consider a variety of circumstances and justifications for our plan, we may well realize that some new information might have caused us to reconsider, but that the changes in circumstances are not sufficiently strong enough to motivate us to change the plan in any kind of meaningful way.. or maybe the changed circumstances only justify small changes in our approach rather than major changes.  


I personally consider that BTC serves as a hedge against to the dollar in a similar way that gold had done historically, so I believe that gold is not necessary, and I mentioned that kind of example of gold in order to attempt to show a kind of extreme preparation that someone might want to consider for an edge preparation in order to attempt to make the point that if your extreme case for using gold is not very likely to play out then you should not be allocating very much of your value into it.... sure maybe it is not zero for some folks even though gold may well be a zero allocation for others (such as yours truly) who considers that to a vast extent bitcoin serves the same purpose, but even serves such purpose better than gold (by about 1,000x - even though not currently reflected in the current BTC/au price).

I will concede that there might be places in the world in which it is easy to get in and out of gold, but why not just use dollars for that?  If you are already in the practice of using gold then maybe you find it to be sufficiently liquid.. and not without other of its own various problems including its pretty long historical manipulation and then some variations in how to divide it or verify it and how many shop s take it (again there might be regional differences).. My gut reaction is to just say "fuck gold", but I can see why some folks might be somewhat comfortable hedging with it, if they are used to it and if they believe some of their liquidation avenues are not going to dry up at the points when they might be needed.

In regards to bitcoins volatility or potentially being forced to sell at the bottom, there are ways to attempt to prepare for that just with a BTC/USD pair.. but of course you should attempt to customize in ways that make you comfortable, too.. also depending on what stage you are in regarding accumulation, maintenance or liquidation.
 

If you have a cashflow that comes in dollars, then you choose how much BTC to buy on a regular basis, and hopefully you have projected out your expenses, so you have your cashflow in order, so you never have to sell BTC that is at a time that is other than your own choosing.  If your timeline has also been projected out to be 4-10 and years or more, then why do you give any shits if the BTC price has dipped, except that such dips allows you to accumulate more.. because hopefully you are not overinvesting and relying upon BTC for your regular liquidity.. if you are no longer in accumulation stage and you reached either maintenance stage or liquidation stage, then surely your calculations would be different. but hopefully if you are in liquidation stage you are planning ahead too and you are in sufficient profits by then that you are not getting caught in short-term pickles regarding your cashflow concerns.


Fuck gold.  I do not really get distracted into gold discussions.. even if in your region it might be liquid.. it does not seem to be very liquid in a lot of places and has other issues.. so I consider it as mostly a distraction to overall bigger issue (rather than edge case) points that I am wanting to discuss here.


I don't consider gold to be helpful for most people in most situations.. . so yeah try moving around $100k value in gold, storing it, verifying it, securing it from govts or private actors and other issues.  Fuck gold.


How come I am starting to feel that I am getting distracted into off-topic considerations?  

If you are having some considerations regarding how liquid you are - then you you should be able to manage those kinds of considerations and figure out how much you want to allocate to bitcoin - which may well change over time.. so if you are building your BTC portfolio and you are also building a business or several businesses, then those kinds of competing considerations are going to create demands on your cashflow and maybe you are ONLY able to invest smaller amounts into bitcoin because you have some other goals and projects that are taking away from your cashflow abilities to buy bitcoin.. so I am not even suggesting to be fucking around considering using BTC as a kind of float for yuour business whil you are still in the BTC accumulation stages; however  sure once you  reach maintenance or liquidation stages, then you whld  have already figured out ways to use btc as a float for businesses in those stages.  

In other words, I am not suggesting getting in and out of bitcoin while in BTC accumulating stages.. and surely many folks are stuck in BTC accumulation stages for a long time before they even get to maintenance or liquidation stages/ concerns... or at least that is the approach that I believe that I am suggesting through the various angles and topics of this thread..  It seems to me that if you get through achieving your BTC accumulation target levels, then it may well become more clear regarding how to start to employing maintenance and liquidation strategies, but I doubt it is good for me to assume that you (tadamichi) have even reached accumulation goals in btc yet, right?


If I understand what you are saying, then surely there is a lot of variance in companies  and there is a lot of centralized points of failure, and I am not really very clear about how you get to the "force to invest" angle, unless you are talking about governmental bailouts of companies and banks when they fuck up.


We might be considering these kinds of potential benefits of bitcoin to society differently too.  I consider bitcoin to benefit society as a whole because it brings fair accounting and disincentivizes debasing the money through printing, so those kinds of benefits are distributed to everyone.. but bitcoins themselves are not distributed to everyone except that anyone can buy bitcoin and even in small fragments, and at the same time, the earlier actors are going to be able to buy more bitcoin at a lower price than the those who come to bitcoin later. though everyone will still benefit from the fair system. even though there is some advantages towards becoming aware of the bitcoin phenomena earlier and taking actions to start to accumulate it earlier.. because satoshis are quite likely to continue to get more and more expensive with the pasage of time..

bitcoin is designed to pump forever, but likely the volatility (including the exponential growth upwards hockey stick portion of the s-curve) is going to continue to go down in percentages the more and more of the worlds population gets into bitcoin and as more and more of the world's monetary value continues to flow into bitcoin.


Sure. I agree with all of this.  There are some segments of society who disproportionately advantage from the various current unfairnesses that are built into the overall debt and money printing system, and even though the whole society is going to advantage from having more money, those who are receiving disproportionate benefits will perceive themselves to be losing from the new fair system and are likely to fight the new system more.. even though probably if push comes to shove, they do not really have any solid argument against the new system except that they had been getting disproportionate advocates to the old system..  They can still advantage from the new system, if they reallocate into bitcoin, but they will probably fight for a decent amount of time before reallocating into bitcoin... but everyone is likely going to be forced to reallocate into bitcoin sooner or later, even i f it could take 50-200 years to play out.


Well it does surely seem that bitcoin provides for more potential sustainability in the future and it is already here in the present and spreading some of its ongoing benefits and love (in a neutral way) to the world already and has been doing so for more than 13 years, even though its circle of adoptions and potential adoption was quite small in the first few years.

So yeah bitcoin seems to provide quite strong potential for peaceful transition to incentivize fewer monetary-related injustices.  I doubt that bitcoin is going to resolve all injustices, and maybe not even resolve all monetary-related injustices, but surely it seems to be a step in the right direction that happens to be quite ingenuous at the same time.  In other words, it seems quite amazing that the ongoing potential for increasing and advancing sound and fair money exists and also allows for potential for ongoing peaceful further transition into such system of increased adoption and increased usage too (it has already happened, continues to happen and likely will continue to happen, too... if you  know the Ron Paul meme "it's happening".. hahahahaha.. it is already happening.. hahahaha);.. So for sure it seems that bitcoin makes better incentives in the world around money matters.

That’s a good idea actually.

True, this shouldn’t be underestimated.

Amen.

I just got a little off topic, sorry for this, yeah im still in accumulation dcaing and buying dips. I was able to double my holdings during this crash. No cash flow issues whatsoever at the moment, and i plan ahead to invest. There’s no possible scenario in which i would need to get my holdings out, because i account for this beforehand.

It was off topic, i meant when the money is this inflationary, it kinda makes it necessary for people to invest or gamble, because otherwise they already lost, if they do nothing. So Bitcoin could actually help here in the long term, because it removes this necessity for the average person.

Yes, but think about government subsidies work now, they basically pick a small group that they will be giving money to. It never reaches everyone and most of the time doesn’t reach the people who really need it, but still makes everyones money worth slightly less, if they used the printer for this. Doesn’t lost coins kinda work like a subsidy that is distributed perfectly equal? Everyone actually benefits from this, on a societal level this could mean a lot, because these are challenges that weren’t solved yet. But note this is off topic and just relevant for a Bitcoin standard far into the future. And it doesn’t negate the points you made, they’re correct.

Yeah, the advantage here is the longer they wait out, the less coins will be left for them, removing more of their influence in the new system. The other advantage is that the old system disadvantaged so many people, that it plays into Bitcoins hand, there’s no need for them to stay loyal to the people that exploited them and for a system that leaves them with nothing.

Bringing justice will always take work, Bitcoin doesn’t remove that burden from us, but this is the first time the money problem can actually be fixed, this is huge.

We can make a cut here, because this is off topic now, thanks for the help tho Jay, your advice is rock solid.

Edited June 26, 2022:  Added response to two tadamichi posts


Some of them are easier to grasp than others, and sometimes there can be some advantages in taking a microscope to anyone of them - even though it might not be necessary just to get started.  It's not good to let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

Hypothetically, let's say that this hypothetical person named Oliver just heard about bitcoin, and he concludes that it appears to be a pretty good investment just to get started and to maybe study the matter over the next couple of years and then decide if he wants to stay in bitcoin or not.  Oliver has a bit of an idea about himself, and he scribbles on a napkin and figures out that he already has an investment portfolio of about $50k, and he has about $8k in cash that he could invest in anything that he wants, and he has about $1k to $2k per month of extra cashflow coming in (extra means after his expenses.. and it is $1k to $2k because he knows that it varies, but he has not really sat down and plotted it out).  

Oliver is not really sure if he wants to make any lump sum investment into bitcoin yet, so he decides to invest $20 per week, and then reassess after a few months and maybe if he has time, he can dedicate some time to figuring out how he feels about bitcoin as compared to some of his other investments and also to project out some of his cash flows and look at his other investments, what he tends to spend his money on, and just how he feels about some of the details related to the various other investments that he has - because he has not really thought about some of those kinds of details very much.. even though he generally pays attention to live within his means so that he does not spend more than he makes.
 
Let's say Oliver is about 28 years old and has done various kinds of work and has some education, but has not really thought about his finances in any kind of detailed way (such as within the above areas), so in each area, he can delve into further detail and even study each of the areas while he is continue to buy $20 per week worth of bitcoin.  The more he studies and figures out each of the areas, the more he can potentially be deliberate about how he is investing and comparing different kinds of investments that he might have already made...he can think about what ishis timeline and why?  What would he like to attempt to accomplish at various points in his life (sure including financial angles).   His thinking about the matters in detail might not help him to learn as well as if he puts some various practices into effect that might cause some back and forth learning more about some of the skills that he has, details about himself and then making adjustments based on what he learns about himself (and also learning about the subject matter and various ways that planning and projecting forward could lead to different results).  Frequently we can learn more by putting our ideas into practice than merely thinking about them without taking any concrete actions.


I think that the experiences help to make the learning sink in better and even make people more curious about learning when they are actively interacting..


Sometimes you don't really know what you don't know until after you learn it, but that does not necessarily mean you need to try to learn everything.  There could be some focus, such as:  I am going to learn about this area now.. and then spend quite a bit of time learning about that area even though some areas may overlap, and then sometimes you might decide to get involved in a certain kind of work or hobby in order to develop a kind of skill... It could be reading, writing, math or even public speaking, but there may be a lack of interest to just sit down and read books on the topic of math.. but then if you prepare some charts or go through your finances to project your cashflow then you may spend quite a bit of time employing math while you are engaged in those other projects that are of interest to you.  Sure sometimes you can just get Excel to do the math for you, and there's no problem with that, but sometimes if you arrange the data in differing kinds of ways, you can try to figure out what would be the correct formula that you need to put in order to get the results that you would like to have displayed, and that's more interesting than just pure math (even though it may well include math in order to really figure out what you want to display in terms of your own information in your life).


If you set up various systems and you try to follow them, the extreme BTC price moves (or even not extreme) can sometimes help to show you what is your risk tolerance and also your abilities to not get emotional in regards to your responses to whatever might be happening.  Sometimes if you project various possible outcomes, you can attempt to measure if you are more attached to one outcome versus another outcome, and even consider h0w you might feel under certain scenarios and even adjust your own expectations in more realistic ways, as I tried to do in the chart outlining my expectations (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719593#msg58719593) about price movements and the timeline for getting there.  It may not matter so much about whether you are more correct than not, but just to be able to recognize and appreciate that when you really attempt to grapple with how likely you believe one outcome or another to be, almost never are you going to arrive at 100% for a future result, and even if you look at the past, you might realize that you might not even be able to proclaim with 100% certainty with what caused x to happen, even though you can see that x did happen, so sometimes how certain we can be in regards to where we are at, how we got here and/or where we are going will partly have to do with how we frame the questions and present the information that we are striving to describe (whether we are ONLY trying to figure out that information or projections for ourselves or we might be trying to describe for others).

Your example of BTC price movement is a good one because there have been several occasions that I set my plans for the BTC price to go up or down, and then I planned what I would do at each increment that the BTC price went up, but when the BTC price went up faster than I expected, I largely ended up doing something close to the opposite of what I had already told myself to do, so in order for me to better learn about myself (and my emotions) from that experience, I had to go through with something like that and to actually have a system in place that I was attempting to follow in order to recognize and appreciate how I ended up reacting and to attempt to figure out whether I needed to fix my system or whether I needed to fix myself (and sometimes there is a little bit of fixing and tweaking of both going on in which tweaks can be made to both in order to cause more comfort.. but still might not result in total lack of emotions when something similar ends up happening again in the future, but there might have developed better ways to deal with similar situations and to be better prepared oneself psychologically and financially for those kinds of situations (and even extreme situations that could happen).


For sure, i know what you say is true.  We might lock in our plans about what to do for 5-10 years or more into the future, but sometimes short term happenings cause us to have to tweak what it is that we are doing and how we are going to get there.  Sometimes our goals change, but sometimes we might see that what we are doing is not getting us closer to our goals.. and I am not even saying that there are needs to be whimsical about it. because some of the longer term investments like bitcoin could have 3-5 going years of negative, but that might not mean that strategies would necessarily change in terms of buying $20 week or whatever the amount might be, but something positive or negative could happen in the interim that causes needs to adjust, and let's say that a certain job opportunity came up, and in the short term, it would cause a need to lower the $20 per week down to $10 per week, but down the road the amount would be be able to be raised to $100 per week.  There can be a variety of creative brainstorming about how to accomplish ongoing investment goals, but in the end, there could be a balancing of the trade offs that cause a tweak, and then might even cause another tweak because of some other further developments, including even getting a loan for a business or a real estate opportunity.. and maybe or maybe not  BTC funds are affected.  Those are choices within your discretion, and not everyone will balance out their preferences in the same way, and some BTC HODLers/Accumulators might have better results and some may have worse results based on the way they chose to allocate and to tweak their plans along the way.

Edited June 26, 2022:  Added the below part (response to two tadamichi posts)


For sure, there is a kind of balance that each of us do because when we don't know anything, then sometimes we cannot be sure about what we do not know, so for sure when we are younger, and even when we get into our teenage years, we are likely given more and more autonomy to make more and more important decisions for ourselves, and surely the stronger the skills and character that you have developed as a kid, then the more likely that you are going to be better at exercising good judgement in your teenage years - and for sure, there are likely to be transgressions too - and if we are looking at learning critical thinking skills, there are likely a lot of cultural differences both in terms of whether we learn critical thinking skills and maybe even if there might be healthy or not so healthy limits in regards to which areas in which we might be allowed to question. 

Sometimes also we might know what the words "critical thinking" means, but we may well have differing understandings about what that means in terms of trying to calculate who is telling the truth about what and is such "truths" based on facts and sound logic to reach reasonable conclusions and sometimes conclusions are absolute in terms of something like math and other times the conclusions might have some more leeway in terms of what values and beliefs make them true or kind of true or more likely to be true if applied for this group of people or in this situation.

There might be some ages that we are not even really capable of abstract thinking, and we can get better at various kinds of problem solving skills and surely some folks are better at these matters than others, and whether it is nature versus nurture, I am not completely sure even though I am pretty sure that we should be able to get better at developing our critical thinking skills and even recognizing that there are some areas in which we do not really know and we are relying on the expertise of others.  So, in that regard, sometimes we might give a lot of credence to some "experts" but as soon as we realize that they have loose connections with reality or sometimes they are lying or just getting facts or logic wrong, then we may well decide to give them less credibility or maybe give them credibility in some areas, but realize that they are not knowledgeable enough or they are lacking logic to be able to provide good information in regards to certain other topics. 

When we are a beginner at certain topics, we may well be able to learn from almost anyone as long as they are not providing us with bad information or teaching us bad habits, but as we get more advanced in that subject matter, we may well need more advanced teachers, and sometimes we may well not even be ready or able to learn the more advanced areas of some topics until we really build our basics first - and surely individuals have differing rates in which they are able to advance and some of that does have to do with their ability to focus or their interests, too.

Learning about the financial angles of bitcoin can be the same way.  Sure there may well be some needs to learn about some fundamental aspects of bitcoin just to kind of get some ideas about what it is and perhaps how it might be different than (and similar to) other technologies and relatedly how it might differ and be similar to some shitcoins, but then there is also the personal financial management angle, and surely none of us has to have all of our financial knowledge figured out before getting started or even to figure out the various ways to manage risk and to manage our psychology, so we can learn some of those skills and even learn by getting burnt, but if we are smart enough, we might be able to figure out the difference between which ares we are learning and maybe to employ less capital/value while we are learning and to perhaps be able to increase the amounts of value that we put at risk as we learn about ourselves and our finances. We also might learn how to develop certain kinds of ways of looking at financial information in different ways and being able to look at absolute amounts and/or look at percentages, and to figure out where we might attempt to learn more by looking at the same data in different kinds of ways and some of those different ways of looking at the information might be helpful for us to figure out ourselves and our intended strategies, and sometimes, we might figure out that we spun the information in a way that really was not helpful in our being able to understand the information better or to understand our own psychology or financial circumstances better.



I don't claim to understand all the different ways that leverage or margin trading or other various more sophisticated financial tools might be employed to hedge BTC bets in either direction, and the general approach that I attempt to preach to folks is to attempt to learn and employ more basic techniques first, and the fact that bitcoin appears to be one of the greatest asymmetric bets that we have ever seen in terms of fundamentals that is widely available to anyone in the world (sure some have easier access than others in terms of having the internet and having some basic knowledge of how bitcoin works), it does not seem to be necessary to employ risky practices in order to potentially become rich as fuck just by taking a somewhat modestly aggressive approach to bitcoin and just letting time work for you.  Of course, there are no guarantees either, but if you invest 4-10 years or longer, or even have an investment timeline of 20-30 years, you are likely going to be much better off to have been getting some kind of early stake in bitcoin and building on it.

No matter when you employ leverage, you are likely adding some front-side risk, but the leverage that you employ might still be prudent - especially if you do something more simple such as getting a loan for 2 years or 4 years, and you still can be advantaged by getting the loan as long as you have ways to pay the loan if the BTC price moves against the direction that you had expected.  Maybe an example might help?

Let's say for example when BTC prices were bouncing between $33k and $48k for most of the first 4 months of this year, you concluded that anywhere in that price range would likely be a good price point to buy BTC, so you were very bullish about bitcoin, but you did not necessarily feel good about your cashflow to be able to DCA into BTC, so instead of DCA'ing into bitcoin, you concluded that it would be a good time to front load into bitcoin instead of relying upon your cashflow to DCA for the next 2 years.

In late March and early April you investigated into the matter and you found out that you could get a loan for $10k that would have a 6% per year interests rate, and the total would be due at the end of 2 years, so if you calculate the whole matter out, and you decided to get the loan and to do a lump sum BTC investment at $40k which would get you 0.25 BTC in early April 2022.  You realize that the loan is costing you about $600 for the two years (making payments, the interest is added on on a monthly basis so it lowers through the period), so you figured that the odds were going to be pretty good that the BTC prices were going to be higher than $42.4k which would be your break even costs for the loan and the cost of the loan.  So surely, you have to make payments of about $441 per month in order to service the loan, but you still decide to take the chances and buy the BTC at $40k.

Well we see in the short-term BTC prices have gone down, so as long as you have enough money to service the loan, you have not engaged in an unreasonable bet (even if you ended up being wrong about whether you might have been able to buy cheaper at a later date). You are engaging in different kinds of leverage if you have to put up collateral including if you don't have enough collateral to cover if the BTC prices go below certain price points.  So there are ways to structure leverage in more reasonable and less risky ways, but there still is likely going to be some risk that you end up NOT being correct, and you would have been better off just DCA buying into the matter or waiting to buy on dips and a lot of ways in which various other combination of strategies might have played out better, but there are also scenarios in which the BTC price could have gone up and you ended up getting the BTC at the lowest price that they would ever be again and you made a calculation to front load your anticipated cashflow (and to pay loan servicing fees) to potentially profit from the BTC prices going up.

Of course, some folks are able to negotiate better loan terms than others in terms of cost of the loan and how it is paid, and maybe instead of paying both interest and principle, they might ONLY have to pay interest which makes the loan way less costly to service, but requires a lump sum payment at the end of the loan period.  There are trade offs and surely I am not against using leverage so long as it is reasonable and for sure individuals are going to measure reasonableness, risks and even cost vs benefits in differing ways in which some ways of calculating and looking at the matter are more likely to pay off than others - and sometimes it may well be not whether you ended up being correct or not, but just whether you employed a reasonable strategy that had good chances for a payoff without putting much if any of your actual principle at risk (actually some people do not mind putting their principle at risk, and I personally do not tend to work my financial strategies in that kind of a way, whether we are referring to bitcoin or other kinds of assets/investments that I have).


For sure, some strategies (or available options) are more risky than others, and sometimes if you want to get some better ideas about how to make the trade offs, you might try to employ some of those kinds of tools.  Of course, I recommend getting your basics down first, and then building an investment portfolio, but if you have built an investment portfolio that has reached a decent size, then you might take a small amount and practice with some of those different kinds of financial instruments, and surely some of them have minimums, and maybe you will go through some assessments and decide that some of them are too complicated for you, or the amount of a loan is 12% per year or 20% per year, and you cannot justify getting a loan at those amounts.  Oh, and some of the loans might have a lower rate, but they require you to pay the "service fee" that is based on the total interest up front rather than on a monthly basis, and if you are paying all of the interest up front, you are being deceived into paying a higher rate than if it were calculated each month at 1/12 of the annual rate.. and sure compounding can be daily or quarterly, so there are various ways of calculating interest rates and how they apply including sometimes the lender has rights to change the rates, so as long as you understand the terms, you can at least calculate if the cost of the loan that you are receiving is worth it.. and surely some folks can negotiate better loan terms, too.


Well let's go by your forum registration date and for calculation purposes attempt to make this matter easier, and hypothesize that you started buying BTC prior to registering on the forum, and hypothesize that you have been buying BTC for 1 year.

There are a lot of ways that you could have approached the matter, and I am not even really proclaiming that there is any exact correct way, except perhaps that each of us should attempt to figure out the various BTC accumulation methods that are available and to figure out which one we believe works best for us and our personal situation.

In terms of accumulation, you could have employed DCA, buying on dips and lump sum.  You could have also fucked around with trading too... which as I said, I do not recommend until you build up your stash first, but sometimes people come into bitcoin and already have a decent sized investment portfolio and they might even have trading experience so they might even default into a trading approach.

Of course, if someone invested BIG a year ago (even in the mid $30ks), they might get really nervous when the BTC price drops around 50% from their average cost per BTC, and if you came into BTC a year ago, but you really were not sure about it, so either you kind of waited around or you took a real whimpy approach, you may well get excited to see the BTC prices drop because you were not sure about whether to buy at those higher prices, but when they drop you might decide to employ a more aggressive BTC buying plan. Some other people might have had reservations about BTC, but then when the BTC price drops, they recognize it as a scary situation, and it causes them to stop buying.

I am not going to attempt to suggest that anyone should have any kind of mindset, and they are free to assess the situation in accordance with their own researching into the matter, and even if they want to believe mainstream media or listen to banking and government officials who tell you that everything is going to be fine and everything is going to go back to how it used to be, then that is their choice regarding whether to get into bitcoin and how much to buy.

At the same time, I have no problem suggesting to no coiners or low coiners to get the fuck off of zero, and as a starting point they should consider an investment into bitcoin in the range of 1% to 25% of their investment portfolio, and if they are whimpy and skeptical, then sure o.k whatever, invest towards the 1% area, and if they are more bullish about bitcoin, then gravitate towards the higher end of the range, but in the end, where they choose to target is their own choice, and don't blame me if it does not work out because how much you invest and whether you invest is up to you, but I still suggest to get to at least 1%, even if very skeptical, but ultimately it is their responsibility whether they even do it.  Another thing is that after looking into the BTC matter for a while, individual tailoring could cause some folks to be even more aggressive than my 25% recommendation, and I don't have any problem if people become even more aggressive if they believe that their circumstances warrant it, but surely we can imagine people who have a shorter time horizon (such as less than 4 years) and they need to be more liquid and who may well need to be way more conservative in terms of their investing in risky investments - but there still might be an aggressive amount that still might make sense in their circumstances. 


For sure, leverage is a more advanced technique and better to employ basics first and get comfortable with basics before getting into more advanced techniques.


hahahaha

I am glad that you did not take the strength of my response personally.  Ever since I have been into bitcoin, I have been reading and responding to gold shills, and for sure, I am not completely against gold, but surely gold has issues.

A very powerful aspect of bitcoin, is that any of us can take immediate possession, because we might not be sure about if our bitcoin might get taken away from us or blocked from our ability to withdraw it if we hold it with a third-party.  Of course, some people are still going to hold their bitcoin with third parties, and even contract away their rights to take possession of their bitcoin, but I also believe with the passage of time, there is going to be some raised consciousness about some of the power that exists when having control over your own bitcoin keys, and we have seen examples where 3rd parties can become abusive - including the example of even BIG ass players, such as Russia, having their funds locked.. same would be true if their value was held in gold outside of their jurisdiction..

Not that any of us has $100 million to move around, but good luck moving $100 million in gold, but with bitcoin click click.. its done been moved and did not have to ask anyone or employ any guards or worry about an ice probe getting stuck up your butt to see if the gold happens to be there... can even deny having the bitcoin and it is more difficult to deny having that whole warehouse and what happens to be in it?  whoops.. shit they found it. 

Was not easy to keep prying eyes from noticing the existence of a whole warehouse... and I am not going to presume that anyone needs to know how many bitcoin that I might happen to have, even if it is ONLY 0.0063 BTC, or 0.063 BTC, or 0.63 BTC or it might happen to be 6.3 BTC, or maybe 630 BTC or perhaps 6,300 BTC or some other amount. or even none. l am not going to presume anyone needs to know except me, and maybe some other peeps that I choose to tell.. and do I have a warehouse that needs to be maintained for that? nope.  Does the quantity need to be held by someone? nope.. Are there are a variety of ways that it could be held and some ways are more flexible than others?  yep... hopefully some of the ways that BTC can be held will get easier and more user-friendly.. but there are already quite a few easy and user-friendly ways... and various trade-offs too.


I am glad that you feel that you are in a good place on a personal level.  For sure, there is a lot of power in having a decently long timeline for your BTC investment, and surely not everyone has the luxury of having a long timeline, so each of us should attempt to appreciate that the BTC investment circumstances of other peeps is not the same as our own and some folks may have gotten themselves into their own pickle or even sometimes they might not even be to blame for where they are at because they might have had employed reasonable and prudent risk management and still gotten into a pickle, somehow... , and of course, you should be attempting to set up your own BTC investment circumstances in such a way that you are not getting stressed out about them, even if matters (such as BTC price performance) might be going contrary to your preferences and expectations.


Yes.. that makes a lot of sense.. and I agree.  The money system is so fucking unfair, and sometimes it can really piss some of us off when we consider how normal people are getting screwed and for sure some people are getting screwed worse than others out of no fault of their own.. and yeah bitcoin could provide some recourse - and in that sense, some people might not even be able to invest into bitcoin $10 per week because they are so screwed in their normal circumstances, they have no access to credit or banking.,. but it still may well allow them to be better off if they are able to scramble up some amount of money and be able to put into bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer. even if only $10 per month... and of course, some people have more difficult access to being able to even feel that they could create a 4-10 year investment or longer and not have to break into it, which is probably not a good idea, but some people have very shitty circumstances even when they may well be trying to do everything in reasonable and practical ways.. but yeah, the incentive to gamble and take risks might naturally flow from having shitty odds when otherwise trying to fit into normal ways of earning and saving money.



Ok.. I had not realized that you were making that point.  Yes.  I agree that the rest of the bitcoin HODLers benefit from lost coins/lost keys.


I think only the HODLers benefit, and it can take a while to know that the lower supply is causing the value of everyone else's coins to go up.. it's a bit subtle but only provides value to HODLers in proportion to their BTC holdings, but would make coins more expensive to NO coiners.. and maybe in difficult to measure ways  because if I were to have 2.1 BTC, then I lost the keys, even though it seems like a lot of coins to me, it would only cause the BTC supply level to go down by 0.0001%, and of course, if access to 2,100 BTC had been lost, then the total supply level would go down by 1,000x more, which would be 0.01%... but I still doubt that it is any great thing to advocate that people lose their BTC, even though we realize that over time, it is likely that quite a large number of BTC will likely end up getting lost forever.. so probably there are more than 4.2 million coins already lost which is 20% of the total coins that would ever come into existence... and we likely realize that the longer that bitcoin exists, the more importance that people will place on trying to preserve their coins or to pass them down, but I have heard of quite a few folks who do not really have good/solid successor plans for their BTC..


Fair enough.


And, I believe that is why we can proclaim that we have a certain level of confidence that we are in the early stages of the largest wealth transfer in history, and a very large number of people either do not realize it, or they believe that bitcoiners are living in a fantasyland in regard to those kinds of claims.  Whether true or not, it would likely not be a bad thing for nocoiners to get some kind of stake in bitcoin, just in case the bitcoiners might be right.. and actually a lot of the no coiners remain resistant to getting onboard to bitcoin because they falsely believe that they are only feeding into a ponzi scheme and that they are not going to personally benefit from buying bitcoin.. so blah blah blah. they are overly priced and they end up being dumb fucks because they fail/refuse to act and fail to get the fuck off of zero.. and sorry to denigrate no coiners and low coiners because they are likely being completely reasonable based on their own lack of knowledge and fears of the unknown and suspicions of folks trying to scam them. yet even if they are completely reasonable. .they are only screwing themselves by not getting started (get off zero) sooner rather than later.


Thanks.. yes. it is good to have some back and forth, and sometimes I still wonder how helpful it is for me to repeat some of the ideas.. .and I suppose that was part of the reason that I created this thread.. but at the same time, I was striving to put the main ideas into the first 5 posts of the thread - even though sometimes I have to go back and flesh out some of the ideas in a better way, too.. and some of the ideas related to price do tend to have lacking of evergreen-ness.

Edited June 26, 2022:  Added response to two tadamichi posts

this is what i love about @JayJuanGee all suggestions or all responses to comments written all have good points and also make sense, and i always check the comments every time i open this forum and i always stop by to check them which i think is a must.
and all that I do for lessons and learning by me even though sometimes I get a little bored reading it because it is too long but I still do it. ;D

Nice to hear that you are reading some parts and getting some value out of it.. even if some parts might be putting you to sleep.. hahahaha

I understand that I will likely need to update some of my discussion areas in this thread to the extent that some of my ways of going over matters may have pertained to contemporary BTC price movements and attempts at assigning probabilities to BTC price direction (both in terms of quantity and time).

If you have any questions or comments regarding any of the areas that I have gone over (or anything else that you might consider to be related and/or relevant), then don't hesitate to post them.

It is definitely helpful for the newbies for sure and even veterans could learn something from it. I do not need it because I do just one simple thing, which is buy bitcoin when you have some money to spend, and then hold it as long as you possibly could. This is literally all I do and that is why it looks like I do not need any help at all.

I mean I needed help back in the day, my investment style was all around the place and it wasn't that good and this kind of topic would have been amazing for me. But nowadays it is not really needed as much and all I do is end up with a situation where I buy and hold and do nothing else which is quite frankly an easy way to get rich.

If you have already tailored your BTC investment approach and figured out both your BTC accumulation targets and how you are going to get there, then surely you have advanced quite a bit towards making sure that you are in a comfortable place with how you are balancing your BTC allocations as compared with anything else that you might be investing into.

I am not trying to impose any one approach onto anybody, but to suggest various kinds of ways to think about investmenting into bitcoin - including where any of us might be at in such journey and where we might want to be.  

At some point, any of us may well start to consider that we have advanced beyond BTC accumulation and that we are more in a kind of maintenance stage and perhaps later down the road we might consider ourselves to have moved more into a liquidation stage.  

No two people are likely going to reach the exact same kinds of balances in terms of their various personal circumstances, and even if any of us might feel that we have our own portfolios figured out in terms of how our finances and psychology is affected, there may be events that happen in our lives or even movements of the BTC price (or our other assets/Macro factors) that cause us to question whether we might need to tweak our approach.. so in that regard, I doubt that these kinds of questions are completely resolved with anyone, and there may well be some points in our lives that we do not need to make very many changes for several years, but we likely would still need to look at our investment on a yearly basis or even a couple of times a year......

The BTC space has tended to be dynamic too, so we may well need to look at how we are storing our BTC, too - and if the BTC price has changed a lot, then our security concerns  may change too.. or if we are investing in BTC for 5-10 years or even longer, the first few years, we might not mind having some or all of our BTC held with third parties, but if our BTC holdings go up in value, we may well need to reconsider how we are holding our BTC holdings.. which also might include considerations of tracking which portions of our holdings might be spendable in what kinds of ways..

To me, it seems that not too many of us are going to be in a static place regarding how we are approaching our BTC investment, even if we might spend a decent amount of time in one of the stages or one aspect of one of the stages, and it can likely be good to share information with others in order to be able to assess whether we might already be in a good place or if we might consider making some changes based on changes in our own circumstances or maybe even changes in some of the risks that might be in the BTC space - including how others might be talking about changes in the space.

There might be guys who invested in bitcoin many years ago, 6, 8, 10 or more, but I would be concerned with trying to make sure that my memory will work very well if I have some coins that have been sitting for many years, and I have not interacted with the coins or even made sure that I still have access to them.

It is nice to hear that guys have worked out comfortable places with their BTC status, and some guys might get to a comfortable place in their BTC within months of getting started, and others might take 5 years or more of just ongoing investing into BTC before they start to feel that they are building themselves into a more comfortable BTC accumulation status.  Feel free to share more of your particulars to the extent any of them might be helpful here... and of course, you can choose how to frame your matters or even frame some matters into hypotheticals in order to not to necessarily disclose some of the OPSec and/or personal financial details that you would prefer to keep private.

Great investment tool we have here, i have read through some of the model @JayJuanGee outline here with indept knowledge and explanations and this thread serve as an educational tool in theoretical and analytical form that will aid anyone success in Bitcoin. Most newbies are feed with wrong information and this have lead many into making wrong investment decision.
 Knowledge is important and Bitcoin journey does not follow pattern so whenever one starts it need to be on the right note and having knowledge that can sustain you stability , and helping you make the right decision and taking calculated risk. I just dropped by to let @JayJuanGee know am one of his student on this thread.

I am considering adding ideas from another post that I made today (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5399414.msg61541051#msg61541051) to the BTC accumulation portion of this thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591).  

An attempt at a fair historical overview largely seems to establish that with the passage of time, especially if we look in 4-year increments, it seems to have been becoming more and more difficult to accumulate similar amounts of BTC, even with similar or inflation-adjusted (cost-of-living adjusted) larger amounts of capital.  

Edited: 

This post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5132720.msg61543902#msg61543902) ties into these accumulation goal ideas in regards to how BTC accumulation goals might change over time, too.

The beginning of getting involved in bitcoin does not need to include a lot of calculations since in the beginning, most people should have a bit of a ballpark idea about their cashflow versus their expenses in order to determine on a ballpark basis if they believe that they can afford to invest $100 per week or $10 per week or some other amount per week into bitcoin.

Many of the calculations and looking into more details of your specific individual circumstances that include more specifically your finances and your psychology can be a kind of ongoing study that would then help any person to make more specifically individually tailored BTC accumulation strategies, targets and perhaps subsequent plans about BTC portfolio maintenance and liquidation - that likely would come later down the road, especially if someone might end up being in bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer or perhaps start to build their lives around making sure that they maintain a bitcoin balance.

So a point that frequently I like to make when it comes to bitcoin newbies is to "get the fuck started sooner rather than later," and work out the details as you go and while you are already starting to accumulate BTC, even if it might be $100 per week more maybe lower amounts such as $10 per week.. and then once you learn more about bitcoin and about your finances and psychology, it will likely inspire you to become more aggressive about your bitcoin accumulation..

No guarantees of anything of course, and each person is responsible for figuring out his/her BTC investment approach, including that most adults already engage in these kinds of investment behaviors/decisions in terms of making choices regarding how to spend their time, money and energies.. It is merely a matter of honing how (and if) bitcoin fits into what people already do....

Are you in^** or not?  or are you going to overly complicate the matter about the amount of your "in"-ness?  That's part of the reason I would suggest get the fuck started first, work out the details as you go, and you are the one responsible for your own investment choices, including if you choose to abstain from bitcoin... sucks to be you.  hahahahaha  

**Another thing that every bitcoin newbie has to figure out is that bitcoin is different from shitcoins, and I am not suggesting anyone gets involved in shitcoins.. but of course, people can do what they like, including failing and refusing to understand and appreciate that I am talking about bitcoin (not shitcoins) and there is a difference between bitcoin and shitcoins that might not be known at the time that any bitcoin newbie gets started in bitcoin, so part of personal responsibility is to attempt to learn the difference. and not to fuck up by getting distracted into something like shitcoin that someone like me, is not saying to get involved in distracting nonsense like that... Also, risk management is something that can be learned and honed along the way, but the fact that there is a need to concern ourselves with risk management, that does not mean that we should not get started as soon as we are able.. and to figure out and hone the details of the various ways to employ risk management along the way.

I wasn't clear whether I should be calling this post a "Bump" or if it is just an "update," since I have just revised my Fuck You Status chart from December 28, 2021 (in opening post 3)  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591)- in order to account for the severity of our December 2021 - present price drop and then also to attempt curve future anticipated BTC price appreciations rather than my earlier straight-line BTC price appreciation projections.  

Here is the Old chart:

Start $              StartDate           % gain /time            Time              Coins/FU status   created: December 28, 2021
$110                    12/1/13               37.50%                  182.6              $2,000,000.00
208-week MA         
   Date                  208-MA Price                gain/time                                   Coins/FU status
   6/1/14               $151                                  $41                                            13,223.14049587
   12/1/14               $208                                  $57                                          9,616.82945154
   6/1/15               $286                                  $78                                            6,994.05778294
   12/1/15               $393                                  $107                                          5,086.58747850
   6/1/16               $541                                  $147                                             3,699.33634800
   11/30/16               $743                                  $203                                          2,690.42643491
   6/1/17               $1,022                                  $279                                          1,956.67377084
   11/30/17               $1,405                                  $383                                          1,423.03546970
   6/1/18               $1,932                                  $527                                          1,034.93488706
   12/1/18               $2,657                                  $725                                          752.67991786
   6/1/19               $3,654                                  $996                                          547.40357663
   12/1/19               $5,024                                  $1,370                                          398.11169209
   5/31/20               $6,908                                  $1,884                                          289.53577607
   11/30/20               $9,498                                  $2,590                                          210.57147350
   6/1/21               $13,060                                  $3,562                                          153.14288982
   11/30/21               $17,957                                  $4,897                                          111.37664714
   6/1/22               $24,691                                  $6,734                                          81.00119792
   11/30/22               $33,950                                  $9,259                                          58.90996212
   6/1/23               $46,681                                  $12,731                                          42.84360882
   12/1/23               $64,187                                  $17,506                                          31.15898823
   5/31/24               $88,257                                  $24,070                                          22.66108235
   11/30/24               $121,353                                  $33,096                                          16.48078716
   5/31/25               $166,861                                  $45,508                                          11.98602703
   11/30/25               $229,434                                  $62,573                                          8.71711057
   6/1/26               $315,472                                  $86,038                                          6.33971678
   11/30/26               $433,773                                  $118,302                                          4.61070311
   6/1/27               $596,438                                  $162,665                                          3.35323862
   11/30/27               $820,103                                  $223,664                                          2.43871900
   5/31/28               $1,127,641                                  $307,539                                          1.77361382
   11/30/28               $1,550,507                                  $422,865                                          1.28990096
   5/31/29               $2,131,947                                  $581,440                                          0.93810979
   11/30/29               $2,931,427                                  $799,480                                          0.68226166
   5/31/30               $4,030,712                                  $1,099,285                                          0.49619030
   11/30/30               $5,542,228                                  $1,511,517                                          0.36086567
   6/1/31               $7,620,564                                  $2,078,336                                          0.26244776
   11/30/31               $10,478,276                                  $2,857,712                                          0.19087110
   5/31/32               $14,407,629                                  $3,929,353                                          0.13881535
   11/29/32               $19,810,490                                  $5,402,861                                          0.10095661

Here is the revised chart:
Start $      StartDate         Gain/Time(days)           FU Status Goal              created: April 17, 2023
$46.41       6/1/14              182.6 (6 mos)                      $2,000,000
                  
Date          RL_Price            BTCBottom            %gain/time       %Rate∆        $Amnt∆        Coins/FU Status
6/1/14           $644                $46.41                       73.13%           92.00%         $33.94                 43,098.5887
11/30/14         $381               $80.34                       67.65%           92.50%         $54.35                 24,893.3841
6/1/15            $236                $134.69                    62.57%           92.50%         $84.28                 14,848.6240
12/1/15          $369                $218.98                    57.88%           92.50%         $126.75                 9,133.4460
5/31/16          $535                $345.72                    53.54%           92.50%         $185.10                 5,785.0152
11/30/16        $743                $530.82                    49.79%           93.00%         $264.31                 3,767.7571
5/31/17         $2,234               $795.13                    46.31%           93.00%         $368.20                 2,515.3223
11/30/17        $9,948               $1,163.32                  43.30%           93.50%         $503.68                 1,719.2112
6/1/18           $7,438               $1,667.01                  40.48%           93.50%         $674.85                 1,199.7552
11/30/18        $4,139               $2,341.85                  38.05%           94.00%         $891.16                 854.0245
6/1/19           $8,578               $3,233.01                  35.96%           94.50%         $1,162.61                 618.6181
11/30/19        $7,405               $4,395.62                  33.98%           94.50%         $1,493.76                 454.9980
5/31/20          $9,472               $5,889.38                  32.11%           94.50%         $1,891.30                 339.5943
11/30/20        $19,610               $7,780.68                  30.35%           94.50%         $2,361.24                 257.04692969
5/31/21          $35,497               $10,141.92                  28.68%           94.50%         $2,908.54                 197.20128982
11/30/21        $57,003               $13,050.46                  27.24%           95.00%         $3,555.53                 153.25130310
5/31/22          $29,817               $16,605.99                  25.88%           95.00%         $4,298.00                 120.43848914
11/30/22         $17,164               $20,903.99                  24.59%           95.00%         $5,139.90                 95.67552464
6/1/23                                       $26,043.89                  23.36%           95.00%         $6,083.52                 76.79345499
11/30/23                                       $32,127.40                  22.19%           95.00%         $7,129.32                 62.25215095
5/31/24                                       $39,256.73                  21.08%           95.00%         $8,275.81                 50.94668366
11/29/24                                       $47,532.53                  20.03%           95.00%         $9,519.43                 42.07644604
5/31/25                                       $57,051.96                  19.03%           95.00%         $10,854.60                 35.05576479
11/30/25                                       $67,906.56                  18.07%           95.00%         $12,273.79                 29.45223515
5/31/26                                       $80,180.35                  17.17%           95.00%         $13,767.61                 24.94376652
11/30/26                                       $93,947.96                  16.31%           95.00%         $15,325.04                 21.28838048
5/31/27                                       $109,273.00                  15.50%           95.00%         $16,933.66                 18.30278238
11/30/27                                       $126,206.66                  14.88%           96.00%         $18,775.49                 15.84702441
5/31/28                                       $144,982.15                  14.28%           96.00%         $20,705.93                 13.79480153
11/29/28                                       $165,688.09                  13.71%           96.00%         $22,716.57                 12.07087395
5/31/29                                       $188,404.66                  13.16%           96.00%         $24,797.87                 10.61544874
11/29/29                                       $213,202.53                  12.64%           96.00%         $26,939.30                 9.38075170
5/31/30                                       $240,141.83                  12.13%           96.00%         $29,129.50                 8.32841147
11/30/30                                       $269,271.34                  11.64%           96.00%         $31,356.43                 7.42745231
5/31/31                                       $300,627.76                  11.18%           96.00%         $33,607.54                 6.65274549
11/30/31                                       $334,235.31                  10.73%           96.00%         $35,869.99                 5.98380826
5/30/32                                       $370,105.30                  10.30%           96.00%         $38,130.76                 5.40386751
11/29/32                                       $408,236.06                  9.99%           97.00%         $40,797.47                 4.89912626
5/31/33                                       $449,033.53                  9.69%           97.00%         $43,528.37                 4.45401035
11/29/33                                       $492,561.90                  9.40%           97.00%         $46,315.48                 4.06040335
5/31/34                                       $538,877.38                  9.12%           97.00%         $49,150.40                 3.71141944
11/29/34                                       $588,027.79                  8.85%           97.00%         $52,024.35                 3.40119982
5/31/35                                       $640,052.14                  8.58%           97.00%         $54,928.27                 3.12474544
........
5/31/38                                       $1,013,573                  7.15%           97.00%         $72,455                       1.97321778
...........
11/29/43                                       $1,960,433                  5.27%           98.00%         $103,375                    1.02018295
.................
5/29/56                                       $5,639,679                  3.67%           99.00%         $206,870                      0.35463012

Here's my earlier description of the Fuck you status chart -created: December 28, 2021.

Because historically bitcoin has been so volatile and volatility seems to be one of bitcoin's ongoing guarantees into the future, I find it very problematic to attempt to use bitcoin's spot price to determine BTC portfolio value, and therefore, I have considered that the use of the 208-week moving average is going to be much more helpful in terms of valuing a BTC portfolio and lessening the likelihood of prematurely entering into fuck you status.  Of course, the 208-week moving average is a very conservative and quite a lagging indicator and usually is only met in extended bear markets or short term liquidation events.  The 104-week moving average or the 52-week moving average would be less conservative indicators, but more likely to be met more frequently.  As I type the update to this post on December 28, 2021, the 208-week moving average is approaching $19k, the 104-week moving average is approaching $30k and the 52-week moving average is around spot price ($48k).  

Historically, the 208-week moving average has gone up around 75% per year, and so if we project that out, we can see that the amount of BTC that we need to reach an entry-level fuck you status of $2 million to be getting small er and smaller.  Even though currently, it would require about 105 BTC to arrive at entry-level fuck you status, the below chart shows that by mid 2022 we may well only need 81 BTC to reach entry-level fuck you status and in mid-2024 we may well need less than 22 BTC to reach entry-level fuck you status.. and for sure if we project out the chart to mid-2029, we likely will ONLY need less than 1 BTC to reach entry-level fuck you status by then.

[chart - edited out]

Of course, there are no guarantees, and since the 208-week moving average is a lagging indicator, we can monitor our progress towards reaching entry-level fuck you status and hopefully not conclude that we are in such entry-level fuck you status before we have accounted for BTC's likely ongoing volatility.

My current description of this latest prognosticated fuck-you status chart is contained in Opening post 3 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591).

Hello JJG,
hope you like your new Tables.

Start $	StartDate	Gain/Time(days)		created:	April 17,2023
$46.41	01/06/2014	182.6 (6 mos)

---

Date	RL_Price	BTC Bottom	%gain/time	% Rate ∆	$ Amount ∆	Coins/FU Status
01/06/2014	$644	$46.41	73.13%	92.00%	$33.94	43,094.16074122
30/11/2014	$381	$80.34	67.65%	92.50%	$54.35	24,894.19965148
01/06/2015	$236	$134.69	62.57%	92.50%	$84.28	14,848.91231717
01/12/2015	$369	$218.98	57.88%	92.50%	$126.75	9,133.25417846
31/05/2016	$535	$345.72	53.54%	92.50%	$185.10	5,785.02834664
30/11/2016	$743	$530.82	49.79%	93.00%	$264.31	3,767.75554802
31/05/2017	$2,234	$795.13	46.31%	93.00%	$368.20	2,515.31196157
30/11/2017	$9,948	$1,163.32	43.3%	93.50%	$503.68	1,719.21741223
01/06/2018	$7,438	$1,667.01	40.48%	93.50%	$674.85	1,199.75285091
30/11/2018	$4,139	$2,341.85	38.05%	94.00%	$891.16	854.02566347
01/06/2019	$8,578	$3,233.01	35.96%	94.50%	$1,162.61	618.61856289
30/11/2019	$7,405	$4,395.62	33.98%	94.50%	$1,493.76	454.99838476
31/05/2020	$9,472	$5,889.38	32.11%	94.50%	$1,891.30	339.59432062
30/11/2020	$19,610	$7,780.68	30.35%	94.50%	$2,361.24	257.04694191
31/05/2021	$35,497	$10,141.92	28.68%	94.50%	$2,908.54	197.20131888
30/11/2021	$57,003	$13,050.46	27.24%	95.00%	$3,555.53	153.25130302
31/05/2022	$29,817	$16,605.99	25.88%	95.00%	$4,298.00	120.43846829
30/11/2022	$17,164	$20,903.99	24.59%	95.00%	$5,139.90	95.67551458
01/06/2023	$26,820	$26,043.89	23.36%	95.00%	$6,083.52	76.79344368
30/11/2023		$32,127.4	22.19%	95.00%	$7,129.32	62.25215859
31/05/2024		$39,256.73	21.08%	95.00%	$8,275.81	50.94667844
29/11/2024		$47,532.53	20.03%	95.00%	$9,519.43	42.07644744
31/05/2025		$57,051.96	19.03%	95.00%	$10,854.60	35.05576320
30/11/2025		$67,906.56	18.07%	95.00%	$12,273.79	29.45223554
31/05/2026		$80,180.35	17.17%	95.00%	$13,767.61	24.94376739
30/11/2026		$93,947.96	16.31%	95.00%	$15,325.04	21.28838135
31/05/2027		$109,273.	15.5%	95.00%	$16,933.66	18.30278294
30/11/2027		$126,206.66	14.88%	96.00%	$18,775.49	15.84702424
31/05/2028		$144,982.15	14.28%	96.00%	$20,705.93	13.79480164
29/11/2028		$165,688.09	13.71%	96.00%	$22,716.57	12.07087365
31/05/2029		$188,404.66	13.16%	96.00%	$24,797.87	10.61544868
29/11/2029		$213,202.53	12.64%	96.00%	$26,939.30	9.38075172
31/05/2030		$240,141.83	12.13%	96.00%	$29,129.50	8.32841159
30/11/2030		$269,271.34	11.64%	96.00%	$31,356.43	7.42745218
31/05/2031		$300,627.76	11.18%	96.00%	$33,607.54	6.65274557
30/11/2031		$334,235.31	10.73%	96.00%	$35,869.99	5.98380823
30/05/2032		$370,105.3	10.3%	96.00%	$38,130.76	5.40386749
29/11/2032		$408,236.06	9.99%	97.00%	$40,797.47	4.89912626
31/05/2033		$449,033.53	9.69%	97.00%	$43,528.37	4.45401037
29/11/2033		$492,561.9	9.4%	97.00%	$46,315.48	4.06040337
31/05/2034		$538,877.38	9.12%	97.00%	$49,150.40	3.71141947
29/11/2034		$588,027.79	8.85%	97.00%	$52,024.35	3.40119980
31/05/2035		$640,052.14	8.58%	97.00%	$54,928.27	3.12474543
........
31/05/2038		$1,013,573	7.15%	97.00%	$72,455.00	1.97321752
...........
29/11/2043		$1,960,433	5.27%	98.00%	$103,375.00	1.02018279
.................
29/05/2056		$5,639,679	3.67%	99.00%	$5,639,679	0.35463011

Wow!   I am going to insert that updated table into my above post to replace mine.

To me, it seems like it would be more work to generate that table (that you did) from my sloppy table that has a lot of extra spaces in it.  I presume that you had to make some manual adjustments, but I don't know how to use the table feature. I tried to do it previously and I could not get it to properly format.

Even though you and I spoke about Google Spreadsheets, I was thinking that another thing that I could do is to take a capture screenshot of my own table.. That would present the information well, but then the data would not be manipulable.  

So far I have not been uploading my own images, so uploading my own images would be an upgrade to what I am currently doing.. I am not sure if there are security issues with uploading our own images (rather than I usually just find some other website that has an image that I want to use).

I don’t like images for the exact same reason.
I don’t think uploading an image from trusted services like talkimg pose a serious risk.
 
But if you want, I can give you access to the spreadsheet I used to create that table, so that you can edit more easily future iteration of that table! (This requires sharing an email address, you can create a spare one just for the occasion -as I am doing for the occasion).

I do have several tables that I can upgrade.. so it would be nice to make them easier to read... but I just noticed on this one that you upgraded, it is missing one of the columns, which I called %Rate∆.  I used that number largely to attempt to cause the historical numbers to line up with real data and then to attempt to project forwards accounting for that number gravitating towards a higher percentage (towards 1), and your very last column has some numbers/results that are different from mine - and it is not just because yours allows 12 decimals after the period, but mine only allows up to 8.

In one of my browser windows, I am now getting an error message for the post with your table that says:

"INVALID BBCODE: close of unopened tag in table (1)"

Never mind.  I closed that window and reopened the window in a new tab, and the error message disappeared.

All the columns are present right now. It was an oversight of mine.
Regarding the last column, I don't know what to say. I didn't copy your values, but recalculated the amount as FU Status Goal/BTC Bottom. So I am not sure how they can differ.
Let me know if you want to adjust the number of decimals.

Thanks for that.  

I had to go look at my original Excel spreadsheet to figure out if there might have had been some kind of a reason for the change in the outcome of the numbers in the last column since it seems that you have the formula correct in terms of the it is the fuck you status goal (which in this case has been presented constantly as $2 million) divided by then BTC bottom price (which is the projected 200-week moving average)..

So regarding the discrepancy of the last column, the ONLY thing that I could think of would be if the number of digits that each of us allowed in the projected 200-week moving average price (btc bottom) might ended up affecting the calculation, so in that case, the difference in the calculations would not have had been BIG enough to have any actual meaning.. so you are correct that your calculations are materially the same as mine, even if they are not exactly the same as mine in every row.

To me, it seems that the number of digits behind the decimal should be important when calculating BTC quantity in order to show at the satoshi level (especially when we start to get to below 100 bitcoin), and currently (not to be overly pedantic, but this is a public thread) we have 8 decimals in our bitcoins - although I will admit that part of the reason that I had limited up to 4 digits in my larger amounts (between June 2014 and November 2020) was merely to save space, which may or may not have had been necessary.^**

**By the way My original spreadsheet goes back to December 2010, and I decided to start showing the data from mid-2014.. and then to cut out a few of the later years too (between late 2035 & late 2037, between late 2038 & mid 2043 and between mid 2044 & late 2055) .. in order to attempt to highlight the fuck you BTC level for the revealed years).  
I am still thinking that there could be several advantages towards using images on the forum posts, and then perhaps a link to google spreadsheets that might end up going into some further detail, but also potentially allowing anyone to be able to extract and use the data and formulas contained therein (in the open source spirit), so maybe it might be easier to capture an image and post it on the forum, but the google spreadsheet might have more than one version of the raw data.. including maybe a more cursory version, and then maybe a more expansive version, and it seems that some of your own google spreadsheets sometimes seem to go into more details and others that go into fewer details (to potentially present a broader picture or highlight certain aspects of the data-set).  

Maybe to be consistent, we should just be showing down to eight digits as frequently as we can (when getting into smaller quantities of BTC), just to get used to thinking in terms of satoshis - even though likely many of us already speculate that some day (which already is happening on lightning network), we are going to be having broader discussions that go more granularly than 8 digits and into sub-satoshis, and becoming more and more likely to go more granularly as bitcoin price is expected to continue to go up and up and up (even though surely not guaranteed to go up.. but expected to go up with decently high levels of confidence.. at least from some of us deluded bulls, present company included).

I hate to point out another mistake in your latest table, and to appear like an overly nit-picking kurmugeon turd, but there was a use of the same numbers in the BTC Bottom column and in the $amnt∆ column... In other words, the $amnt∆ column information was not there.

This is embarrassing. Believe or not, I did the previous correction via mobile, in an effort of productivity that apparently ended up in failure.
Let me deal with some IRL related issues, and I will correct them.
 I also thought I can share with everybody the spreadsheet used to create that table. I think there are no downside to this (potential upside: someone find a smarter way of doing what I do).

No problem.  Thanks for the effort, and your interactions got me thinking about some of my other spreadsheets too, and I did not even share my most recent creation that had caused me to contact you via PM a few weeks ago.. .. so I have not produced any posts or threads on the spreadsheet that I am somewhat eager to share - even though I know that there can be some additional work to share substantive contents with forum members.

Also, we likely realize that some of these attempts at data manipulation and even presentation of data can take time, so I am impressed that you are able to carry out quite a bit of working with data from my earlier posts through mobile, and I frequently feel handicapped when I have to work from a laptop screen rather than having 2 or three external monitors.. which is my current home set-up but I am frequently not even at my home set up, so my handicap tends to be toggling between lap top screens, rather than trying to work from mobile devices (presumably from a phone or maybe an ipad or something like that might count as a mobile device, too?).

All the corrections and modifications have been made.
Here is the link to the spreadsheet (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17mAOse3CvoRu-I6huK9fB4qufIxWpl2xZk_Dqpn8nfc/edit?usp=sharing)

You can open it, view it, and if you want to modify anything, select "Make a copy" under the "File" menu. In such a way, you don't even need to communicate anything to me, nor will I ever be able to know when/if/how you made a local copy.

Thanks for the modifications of the earlier table, thanks for the spreadsheet, thanks for the instructions, and thanks for the various consultations.

I have just updated and pasted in your fix to the referenced table in my post 3.

By the way, in reference to the modifications of the last column, it seems that somehow your spreadsheet is taking a graduated approach in terms of when it is showing 8 digits after the decimal. 
When the BTC amount has 5 digits, then there are ONLY 4 digits after the decimal.
When the BTC amount has 4 digits, then there are ONLY 5 digits after the decimal.
When the BTC amount has 3 digits, then there are ONLY 6 digits after the decimal.
When the BTC amount has 2 digits, then there are ONLY 7 digits after the decimal.

So showing the full 8 digits after the decimal happens ONLY with single digit bitcoin and with zero digit bitcoin, and I suppose that is acceptable to the extent that getting into satoshis might not really matter as much with those larger BTC amounts.  I know in Excel I can say how many digits after the decimal that I want to show, and probably I can limit the number of digits per cell.. but whatever formula or combinations of formulas, I could not really figure out how to do it, when I was playing around with the google spreadsheet because after I made some changes, after I tried to preview the post, I got this message:  "INVALID BBCODE: loop, probably unclosed tags".... For about 20 minutes I attempted to figure out what I did, but I gave up.. for now.  I have to do some other things.

At some point in the near future, I am going to test out putting an actual table into your Google Spreadsheet by following your instructions..  I did execute the "make a copy" function to see that part seems to work.., but then again, I got the message:  "INVALID BBCODE: loop, probably unclosed tags" when I tried to venture too far into the matter. 

It could be that going through this google spreadsheet process and trying to learn how to use your translation set-up may well end up resolving quite a few of my historical table creation problems.. in terms of the amount of time that it had been taking me, and also the sometimes difficulties in seeing the line up of columns...   

I have not really worked very much with google spreadsheets, but it does seem pretty similar to Excel.  Also, if I get a bit more used to Google Spreadsheets, it seems like it could potentially save me in some of my other real world cases in which I have been saving Excel spreadsheets with people, and then we go back and forth in regards to how and which changes are made... and it still not resolve some of the ways in which people might end up screwing up spreadsheets based on their screwing up the formulas.. and then requiring to trouble shoot where the formula screw ups had gone wrong.. so sometimes there still might be needs to compare earlier versions to later versions, and if some mistakes might have been made a few versions back, some detective work might be needed in terms of figuring out when the mistake first started to appear in the earlier versions.

You are welcome. I am gladly helping you provide value for the forum.


I plead guilty to that, I took the initiative to a visually appalling sorting and, of course, because when dealing with a high number of coins, the precision to the last satoshi could be an overkill.

In the Spreadsheet, look at cell V12.
The formula is meaning :"Format cell G12 as a number with thousand separator , decimal separator . and 8 decimal places (0 instead of # forces to display 8 decimal places even ith redundant 0's).
Try to experiment yourself with this if you want to change.

Ragarding the error with BB code be sure to past all the green cells, included the opening command [ table ] and the closing one [ / table]. In case you are still experiencing the problem, please sent me the code via PM so I can try to figure out what is happening.


I almost stopped using Excel for personal uses, and I am using Sheets only. THey are ubiquitous, platform agnostic, and there is a complete versioning of the file, being able to revert every single version you want to restore (File=>Version History=>See Version History=>Click on the desired Version=>Restore This Version

That explanation helps quite a bit, because I was a bit confused regarding some of the formatting matters, and even with the date, it does not seem to allow me to format the date with only two digits for the year... but I can now see how it seems to be formatting that.


It seems to be working now because I updated my Opening Post 3 with the code that I had modified through GS, so I am not sure what mistake I had been making previously.  Yesterday, I was mostly using preview and posting several versions of the tables in a row so I could see the formatting differences between them within the same preview of the post, but when I got to posting the third table, then I was repeatedly getting that BB error code.


Like you said, I will have to play around with GS, and then see how much I am able to feel comfortable moving over from Excel to Google Spreadsheet.  First off will be to potentially just use the formatting tool that you provided in order that I may well be able to show tables better in my forum posts than I had been previously (and this might even cause me to want to post more tables - to the extent that might be "helpful" to anyone in terms of some substantive discussions).    And, as you likely realize, I have been getting in the habit of referring back to some of my tables when I am engaging in substantive discussions in other threads - since from my point of view these kinds of topics seem to come up a lot (how many bitcoins do I need now in order to improve my chances of having a good (or acceptable) life in the future)... besides giving some of the blanket advice - get as many coins as you can, some times, it can be helpful to attempt to dive into specifics, and surely, members might come up with answers that differ from my own, but at least some of the charts can help to provide springboard to better pinpoint upon where the differences of perspective might lie.

Surely, there are a lot of similarities between Google Spreadsheets and Excel, but there do seem to be some new things in GS that I would likely need to learn, too.... and like we had discussed via PM, if I might want to start to link to the actual Google Spreadsheet or to link to some of the raw data that might underly the information that I post in the forum and that might not be shown in the forum post, then there might be some preferences to create a new Google account that would be used just for that kind of a thing (sharing Google Spreadsheets).. and one of the goals would be to attempt to preserve some aspects of OpSec.

Since I was attempting to avoid some clutter and I frequently refer to data in this table, here's a more complete version of the table that would be extension of the one in Opening Post 3:

(Date)	(RL_Price)	(BTC Bottom)	(%gain/time)	(% Rate ∆)	($ Amount ∆)	(#Coins/FU Status)
12/1/2010	$0.21	$0.30			$0.42	6,666,667.0000
06/01/2011	$8.74	$0.72		90.00%	$0.91	2,777,778.0000
12/1/2011	$2.97	$1.63		90.50%	$1.86	1,229,105.0000
5/31/12	$5.00	$3.48		91.00%	$3.61	574,267.7248
11/30/12	$13.00	$7.10	94.95%	91.50%	$6.74	281,825.26090
01/06/2013	$128.00	$13.83	86.88%	91.50%	$12.02	144,565.00790
11/30/13	$1,104	$25.85	79.49%	91.50%	$20.55	77,358.54840
01/06/2014	$644	$46.41	73.13%	92.00%	$33.94	43,098.58870
11/30/14	$381	$80.34	67.65%	92.50%	$54.35	24,893.38410
01/06/2015	$236	$134.69	62.57%	92.50%	$84.28	14,848.62400
01/12/2015	$369	$218.98	57.88%	92.50%	$126.75	9,133.446000
5/31/16	$535	$345.72	53.54%	92.50%	$185.10	5,785.015200
11/30/16	$743	$530.82	49.79%	93.00%	$264.31	3,767.757100
5/31/17	$2,234	$795.13	46.31%	93.00%	$368.20	2,515.322300
11/30/17	$9,948	$1,163.32	43.3%	93.50%	$503.68	1,719.211200
01/06/2018	$7,438	$1,667.01	40.48%	93.50%	$674.85	1,199.755200
11/30/18	$4,139	$2,341.85	38.05%	94.00%	$891.16	854.024500
01/06/2019	$8,578	$3,233.01	35.96%	94.50%	$1,162.61	618.618100
11/30/19	$7,405	$4,395.62	33.98%	94.50%	$1,493.76	454.9980000
5/31/20	$9,472	$5,889.38	32.11%	94.50%	$1,891.30	339.5943000
11/30/20	$19,610	$7,780.68	30.35%	94.50%	$2,361.24	257.0469297
5/31/21	$35,497	$10,141.92	28.68%	94.50%	$2,908.54	197.2012898
11/30/21	$57,003	$13,050.46	27.24%	95.00%	$3,555.53	153.2513031
5/31/22	$29,817	$16,605.99	25.88%	95.00%	$4,298.00	120.4384891
11/30/22	$17,164	$20,903.99	24.59%	95.00%	$5,139.90	95.6755246
01/06/2023	$26,822	$26,043.89	23.36%	95.00%	$6,083.52	76.7934550
11/30/23		$32,127.40	22.19%	95.00%	$7,129.32	62.2521510
5/31/24		$39,256.73	21.08%	95.00%	$8,275.81	50.9466837
11/29/24		$47,532.53	20.03%	95.00%	$9,519.43	42.0764460
5/31/25		$57,051.96	19.03%	95.00%	$10,854.60	35.0557648
11/30/25		$67,906.56	18.07%	95.00%	$12,273.79	29.4522352
5/31/26		$80,180.35	17.17%	95.00%	$13,767.61	24.9437665
11/30/26		$93,947.96	16.31%	95.00%	$15,325.04	21.28838048
5/31/27		$109,273.00	15.5%	95.00%	$16,933.66	18.30278238
11/30/27		$126,206.66	14.88%	96.00%	$18,775.49	15.84702441
5/31/28		$144,982.15	14.28%	96.00%	$20,705.93	13.79480153
11/29/28		$165,688.09	13.71%	96.00%	$22,716.57	12.07087395
5/31/29		$188,404.66	13.16%	96.00%	$24,797.87	10.61544874
11/29/29		$213,202.53	12.64%	96.00%	$26,939.30	9.38075170
5/31/30		$240,141.83	12.13%	96.00%	$29,129.50	8.32841147
11/30/30		$269,271.34	11.64%	96.00%	$31,356.43	7.42745231
5/31/31		$300,627.76	11.18%	96.00%	$33,607.54	6.65274549
11/30/31		$334,235.31	10.73%	96.00%	$35,869.99	5.98380826
5/30/32		$370,105.30	10.3%	96.00%	$38,130.76	5.40386751
11/29/32		$408,236.06	9.99%	97.00%	$40,797.47	4.8991263
5/31/33		$449,033.53	9.69%	97.00%	$43,528.37	4.4540104
11/29/33		$492,561.90	9.4%	97.00%	$46,315.48	4.0604034
5/31/34		$538,877.38	9.12%	97.00%	$49,150.40	3.7114194
11/29/34		$588,027.79	8.85%	97.00%	$52,024.35	3.4011998
5/31/35		$640,052.14	8.58%	97.00%	$54,928.27	3.1247454
11/30/35		$694,980.41	8.32%	97.00%	$57,852.86	2.87777896
5/30/36		$752,833.27	8.07%	97.00%	$60,789	2.65663072
11/29/36		$813,621.97	7.83%	97.00%	$63,726	2.45814404
5/30/37		$877,348.23	7.6%	97.00%	$66,656	2.27959654
11/29/37		$944,004.27	7.37%	97.00%	$69,569	2.11863448
5/31/38		$1,013,573	7.15%	97.00%	$72,455	1.97321778
11/29/38		$1,086,027	6.93%	97.00%	$75,305	1.84157406
5/31/39		$1,161,332	6.73%	97.00%	$78,111	1.72215981
11/29/39		$1,239,443	6.52%	97.00%	$80,864	1.61362780
5/30/40		$1,320,307	6.33%	97.00%	$83,555	1.51479950
11/29/40		$1,403,862	6.14%	97.00%	$86,178	1.4246417
5/30/41		$1,490,039	5.95%	97.00%	$88,724	1.3422465
11/29/41		$1,578,763	5.78%	97.00%	$91,186	1.2668147
5/30/42		$1,669,949	5.6%	97.00%	$93,560	1.1976411
11/29/42		$1,763,509	5.49%	98.00%	$96,825	1.1341026
5/31/43		$1,860,334	5.38%	98.00%	$100,099	1.0750757
11/29/43		$1,960,433	5.27%	98.00%	$103,375	1.02018295
5/30/44		$2,063,808	5.17%	98.00%	$106,649	0.96908260
11/28/44		$2,170,457	5.06%	98.00%	$109,917	0.92146494
5/30/45		$2,280,374	4.96%	98.00%	$113,174	0.87704898
11/29/45		$2,393,549	4.86%	98.00%	$116,415	0.83557946
5/30/46		$2,509,964	4.77%	98.00%	$119,636	0.79682426
11/29/46		$2,629,599	4.67%	98.00%	$122,831	0.76057211
5/30/47		$2,752,431	4.58%	98.00%	$125,998	0.72663044
11/29/47		$2,878,428	4.49%	98.00%	$129,130	0.69482363
5/30/48		$3,007,558	4.4%	98.00%	$132,224	0.66499127
11/28/48		$3,139,783	4.31%	98.00%	$135,277	0.6369867
5/30/49		$3,275,060	4.22%	98.00%	$138,283	0.6106759
11/28/49		$3,413,343	4.18%	99.00%	$142,681	0.5859359
5/30/50		$3,556,023	4.14%	99.00%	$147,158	0.5624260
11/29/50		$3,703,182	4.1%	99.00%	$151,716	0.5400761
5/30/51		$3,854,897	4.06%	99.00%	$156,352	0.5188206
11/29/51		$4,011,249	4.02%	99.00%	$161,067	0.49859777
5/29/52		$4,172,316	3.98%	99.00%	$165,859	0.47935008
11/28/52		$4,338,175	3.94%	99.00%	$170,727	0.46102339
5/30/53		$4,508,902	3.9%	99.00%	$175,672	0.44356696
11/28/53		$4,684,574	3.86%	99.00%	$180,691	0.42693316
5/30/54		$4,865,265	3.82%	99.00%	$185,784	0.41107729
11/28/54		$5,051,049	3.78%	99.00%	$190,950	0.39595734
5/30/55		$5,241,999	3.74%	99.00%	$196,187	0.38153386
11/29/55		$5,438,185	3.71%	99.00%	$201,494	0.36776974
5/29/56		$5,639,679	3.67%	99.00%	$206,870	0.35463012
11/28/56		$5,846,549	3.63%	99.00%	$212,313	0.3420822
5/29/57		$6,058,862	3.6%	99.00%	$217,823	0.3300950
11/28/57		$6,276,685	3.56%	99.00%	$223,398	0.3186395
5/30/58		$6,500,083	3.52%	99.00%	$229,035	0.3076884
11/28/58		$6,729,118	3.49%	99.00%	$234,734	0.2972158
5/30/59		$6,963,853	3.45%	99.00%	$240,494	0.2871974
11/28/59		$7,204,346	3.42%	99.00%	$246,311	0.27761021
5/29/60		$7,450,657	3.38%	99.00%	$252,185	0.26843271
11/28/60		$7,702,842	3.35%	99.00%	$258,113	0.25964444
5/29/61		$7,960,955	3.32%	99.00%	$264,095	0.25122614
11/28/61		$8,225,050	3.28%	99.00%	$270,127	0.24315963
5/29/62		$8,495,177	3.25%	99.00%	$276,209	0.23542771
11/28/62		$8,771,386	3.22%	99.00%	$282,337	0.22801415
5/30/63		$9,053,723	3.19%	99.00%	$288,511	0.22090360
11/28/63		$9,342,234	3.15%	99.00%	$294,728	0.21408155
5/29/64		$9,636,962	3.12%	99.00%	$300,986	0.20753428
11/27/64		$9,937,948	3.09%	99.00%	$307,282	0.2012488
5/29/65		$10,245,230	3.06%	99.00%	$313,616	0.1952128

Indeed every form of businesses requires knowledgeable detailed ideas if not at experiences. Be curious to learn about a thought of business and your passionate towards making profits on a field you know nothing about. Things ain't jus the easy it is seen. If one is seems prosperous at a point does not mean it must favour you too. There are verities there is a likelihood about investments which are termed to proffer complete helter skelter striving to keep your investment on a survival but only BTC could render you a reliance with a minimum knowledge which you don't need a muscle to push on before getting to the hill of greatness. You only have to keep your mind of deck keep staring and steering at your coin(s) while you watch it grows like you are watering a plant of you steering your cooking put waiting to get cooked in no time because Bitcoin investment is a magical investment system.

Yes of course ignorantly venturing into a business unknowledged about is as gambling with your investment.

You are speaking quite generally and vaguely EluguHcman, and even though ideas of this thread could be used for businesses or even governments, I was not attempting to add those kinds of additional complexities into various investment ideas for the consideration of individuals and/or their thinking about the inclusion of bitcoin in their own investment portfolios.

Are you actually considering my thread in terms of your own business, or maybe if you have some ideas regarding your own individual circumstances, we can try to apply some of my ideas to your situation if you would like to share some of that in this thread  and sure, there are no needs to reveal private information - and even if you want to talk about the circumstances of a friend, or a hypothetical person, then maybe we would have something more concrete to discuss in terms of how we might consider involving bitcoin into the mix - even if you might be considering the situation of a business - which does have the potential to bring about some of its own business specific complexities.. but in the end we still are likely boiling down to the ability to invest into bitcoin likely comes after accounting for expenses and income and would mostly come from extra income in order to stay within the realm of investing rather than gambling as you seem to have alluded to that kind of problem that anyone could have with his/her bitcoin investment approach.

One of the importance of a great idea is that, if properly studied and applied, it has the capacity to reproduce it result if all variables are equal, and even if the variables differs in term of individual unique situation such as the level of financial knowledge and how much amount the individual possesses, if the financial knowledge and theories were and are properly analyzed and applied, it will still definitely give a positive result in the individuals own level, the result may not be the same in terms of how much profits have been accumulated in the stretch of time and what amount you are able to set aside as you accumulate all the way down and up respectively depending on the angle you are approaching the market from.
Although,  in investment such as bitcoin, it requires for individuals to first of all have a pre planned approach before they start the journey just like in any form of business, so for that, EluguHcman may have to properly digest the topic and make a personal analysis of the various approaches that are employed by ops to make a good outcome in the long term.

Of course, positive results are not guaranteed for any way of investing, even with something like bitcoin that seems to be amongst the best of asymmetric bets to the upside that is currently available, if not the best.  At the same time, there are going to be needs to make sure that you do not overinvest in such ways that you do not have enough money to cover your cashflows, and the cashflows of businesses tend to be more complicated than the cashflows of individuals and also the cashflows of married with familities will tend to be more complicated than the cashflows of single individuals.  Even though cashflows might be more complicated, that does not necessarily mean that abilities to invest into bitcoin would be more complicated because sometimes complicated cashflows might create more discretionary income, so then more options regarding how to allocate funds (just like governments might have more options than businesses, but they still likely have to manage their finances well, otherwise they might end up screwing up their own finances because they did not adequately account for their expenses when they chose to invest into bitcoin).

Bump: 

Here's my off-the-top of my head updated odds for this upcoming cycle. which is working with UP only with a presumption that a new ATH will come prior to the end of 2025.

Very nice.
To me, it will be crucial to clear the old ATH before the end of 2024. I am pretty confident it will happen, even more, if the ETF is approved next year: if everything goes as planned already in January, with plenty of time to be fully in effect in H1 gobbling up bitcoins.
 

First: What is H1?

Second: In accordance with my above outline, any clearing of the ATH before the end of 2025 would help to make the underlying presumption more sound, and then it is merely a matter of how much happens before the end of 2025, I suppose that the odds (and the expected range of each) would also end up changing for each of the categories if the most bearish one ends up getting met.... especially since BTC prices have to go up about 86% merely in order to fullfull the underlying presumption that an ATH will be reached prior to the end of 2025, and once the whichever of the price ranges gets reached then it is no longer a prediction but instead becomes a certainty for that category, so then each of the categories and ranges might need to be tweaked from time to time based on them having had been met and whether it is perceived that we are "on schedule" or ahead of schedule or whatever, and surely it would be nice to knock some of the categories out from time to time during 2024 and 2025, and the more that the BTC price goes up then maybe even the odds for the upside scenarios would end up changing based on what had ended up already happening. 

I am not much of a stickler for sticking with old predictions once the facts have changed, but the mere changing of facts still would not change the earlier predictions as being captured at that moment in time.  Another thing is that I am kind of just shooting from the seat of my pants, so sometimes people will come up with their own predictions in regards to this, and surely I don't have any problem with that, but instead of what I attempted to do, they might just give one of the scenarios and proclaim something like:

"the price of BTC is going to top out between $110k and $170k by no later than the end of 2025"..

And yeah sometimes it is even worse than that because they don't give a date and sometimes not even a range, and then they don't really give their odds either, and they don't really give any alternative scenarios which even if that might be their base case, you can see that my base case is probably "Conservative:[/b] $80,001 to $150k - 35%" because at this time, the conservative scenario has the highest odds, even though I might have to change them later.. since I just threw down a kind of quickie estimation to attempt to respond to a post from member jrrsparkles in the other thread.. but I am probably thinking more of the "middle" scenario, but I also hate to be overly optimistic too soon and then end up disappointing myself if such scenario does not even come close to ending up happening.. so I suppose even in my mind it seems really great to merely get to ATHs again prior to the end of 2025, and anything beyond that is really icing on the cake. even though anything beyond ATH is also kind of presumed, too.. Why else would I make such a post that presumes an ATH is reached prior to the end of 2025?.. ..

I mean maybe even the real reality of the matter is just that if the 200-week moving average continues to move up between 6% and 12% per year, then aren't longer term bitcoiners doing good?  The 200-week moving average is currently moving up a little more than $20 per day (https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/), but even if we presume $20 per day, that is $7,300 (365 x $20) in a year and it gives us a 25% price increase for the next year... well the 200-week moving average is currently at $28,643, so yeah our $7,300 would need to be added onto that, so $36k for November 11, 2024. but of course, we likely realize that BTC prices tend to be quite a bit above the 200 week moving average, so the 200-week moving average is a kind of bottom indicator rather than anything that we should be tied down to when it comes to tops. 

In bitcoin, presuming fair value BTC prices to tend to be 25% to 100% higher than the 200-week moving average does not seem to be unreasonable at all, and so maybe those numbers will go down in the future.. and maybe the BTC price will stick a lot closer to the 200 week moving average, like maybe even within around 25% or so?  But for now, I am not going to presume bitcoin to be  something that it is not, and we have to consider to include the ideas of exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects (in the Trace Mayer school of thought).

Yes we want more than just 6% to 12% per year... and/or more than 25% to 43% per year.  It just seems expected to get more than 48% per year in the coming years..almost like a given.. but can we really expect more?  Maybe I am feeling guilty by even presuming a new ATH by the end of 2025, since that is like getting some where in the arena of 43% per year returns in each of the next two years, and can we even presume that?  Seems crazy, even though it kind of seem that we can have some level of presumption, but it still seems kind of fantasylandia if you really think about it that we are presuming an ATH prior to the end of 2025. 

It is like the amount of BTC price appreciation that we are presuming should justify throwing a lot of assets into bitcoin, but some of us already have a lot of assets in bitcoin due to earlier price appreciations of it, so it is not even like we need to throw more assets into bitcoin  in order to benefit tremendously from it (and why get greedy), so the motivation about getting in and recognizing base cases that are pretty bullish in their presumptions really should go to the no coiners and the low coiners, but they don't even seem to hold similar basic level presumptions as the longer term bitcoiners presume at least 43% per year in each of the next two years.. and your expectation of ATH by the end of 2024 is like you are presuming an 86%-ish return by the end of 2024...and a strange thing is that does not even sound unrealistic to me. 

I should be calling you names right now for your expectation of 86% returns in the next 13.5 months in regards to your level of seeing unicorns but I am not going to call you any names.. because pretty much I believe similarly.. not completely. as you seem to be suggesting that it might not happen, but still, I think that you still pretty much agree that the underlying presumption of making an new ATH by the end of 2025 is not even close to unrealistic... so then it is just a matter of how much and whether you might choose to assign different percentages to the chosen ranges, considering that we are presuming that we are going to be getting to an ATH on or before the end of 2025.

Bump:

Since we were coming upon the end of November and the actual 200-week moving average is ending up to playing out as nearly 10% lower than my projection (just above $29k rather than my $32,127 projection), I figured that I needed to take another look at the way that I was arriving at my 200-week moving average trajectoring out numbers, which largely was that I was using various tweaks on formulas in order to start from around 2010 and then to trajector all the way through the whole table, and given the kind of erratic way that the 200-week moving average seems to have historically moved up, I was having a lot of difficulties to fit both past performance and to come up with future performance projections on a kind of curved line that I expected to slope off with less and less steepness with the passage of time.  

It seems to me that no matter what, there is going to be some guessing when it comes to the future, so I therefore decided to discontinue trajectoring the past 200-week moving averages, but instead to plug the actual numbers into the chart to reflect the actual 200-week moving average amounts for the past dates, and thereafter attempt to trajector out based on guesses of how four-year cycles had historically played out. which I concluded seemed to largely be two years of increasing slopes of the 200-week moving average and then another 2 years of decreasing slopes, and surely this pattern is not guaranteed to continue,

but it just started to seem safer to me to try to be more conservative with the numbers while attempting to keep somewhat of a pattern of two years of higher increases in the slope of the 200-week moving average and two years of lower increases of the slope of the 200-week moving average and the numbers likely coming together (the up-year numbers becoming smaller and the down year numbers also getting smaller but just at a slower rate) but always staying positive for all of the projections of the future (even though there may well be periods in the future in which the slope of the 200-week moving average is not going to be positive, whether it is just over one of the 6 month cells or whether the non-positiveness lasts over 4 of the 6 months cells (or even longer) in which 4 cells are meant to reflect a 2-year period of time in the cycle.  

In the end, the revised numbers for the 200-week moving averages of my new chart are even more conservative than previously, which largely means that I am projecting outwardly that it will take more BTC to reach fuck you status in light the trajectored out bottom BTC prices, and perhaps even erroring on the side of being overly conservative, so if I am wrong, I would prefer to be wrong on the downside rather than the upside...   even though surely there are a variety of negative scenarios that could end up happening to cause the whole model and assumptions underlying the model to end up being way more wrong than expected.

Another thing that I did was to encumber the page a bit more by showing my numbers all the way back to 2010 and then to show all of them all the way to 2078.. . and hopefully, I will just update the table every 6 months, and if the 200-week moving average ends up being very close to the projected 200-week moving average, then I should not need to change the future projections, and at this time, as I already mentioned, I am somewhat expecting my numbers to underperform, but I might end up looking like a fool with such expectations.. especially since erraticness, volatility and battles is not off the table for expected future BTC price dynamics that could cause the numbers to gravitate in either direction of my current expectations.

Below is my old Chart from April 17 & August 6, 2023 that I am replacing,, and the new chart is in post 3 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591). I could not place both charts in the same post because I get an error.

(Date)	(RL_Price)	(BTC Bottom)	(%gain/time)	(% Rate ∆)	($ Amount ∆)	(#Coins/FU Status)
06/01/2014	$644	$46.41	73.13%	92.00%	$33.94	43,094.1607
11/30/2014	$381	$80.34	67.65%	92.50%	$54.35	24,894.1997
06/01/2015	$236	$134.69	62.57%	92.50%	$84.28	14,848.9123
12/01/2015	$369	$218.98	57.88%	92.50%	$126.75	9,133.25418
05/31/2016	$535	$345.72	53.54%	92.50%	$185.10	5,785.02835
11/30/2016	$743	$530.82	49.79%	93.00%	$264.31	3,767.75555
05/31/2017	$2,234	$795.13	46.31%	93.00%	$368.20	2,515.31196
11/30/2017	$9,948	$1,163.32	43.3%	93.50%	$503.68	1,719.21741
06/01/2018	$7,438	$1,667.01	40.48%	93.50%	$674.85	1,199.75285
11/30/2018	$4,139	$2,341.85	38.05%	94.00%	$891.16	854.025663
06/01/2019	$8,578	$3,233.01	35.96%	94.50%	$1,162.61	618.618563
11/30/2019	$7,405	$4,395.62	33.98%	94.50%	$1,493.76	454.998385
05/31/2020	$9,472	$5,889.38	32.11%	94.50%	$1,891.30	339.594321
11/30/2020	$19,610	$7,780.68	30.35%	94.50%	$2,361.24	257.046942
05/31/2021	$35,497	$10,141.92	28.68%	94.50%	$2,908.54	197.201319
11/30/2021	$57,003	$13,050.46	27.24%	95.00%	$3,555.53	153.251303
05/31/2022	$29,817	$16,605.99	25.88%	95.00%	$4,298.00	120.438468
11/30/2022	$17,164	$20,903.99	24.59%	95.00%	$5,139.90	95.6755146
06/01/2023	$26,820	$26,043.89	23.36%	95.00%	$6,083.52	76.7934437
11/30/2023		$32,127.40	22.19%	95.00%	$7,129.32	62.2521586
05/31/2024		$39,256.73	21.08%	95.00%	$8,275.81	50.9466784
11/29/2024		$47,532.53	20.03%	95.00%	$9,519.43	42.0764474
05/31/2025		$57,051.96	19.03%	95.00%	$10,854.60	35.0557632
11/30/2025		$67,906.56	18.07%	95.00%	$12,273.79	29.4522355
05/31/2026		$80,180.35	17.17%	95.00%	$13,767.61	24.9437674
11/30/2026		$93,947.96	16.31%	95.00%	$15,325.04	21.2883814
05/31/2027		$109,273.00	15.5%	95.00%	$16,933.66	18.3027829
11/30/2027		$126,206.66	14.88%	96.00%	$18,775.49	15.8470242
05/31/2028		$144,982.15	14.28%	96.00%	$20,705.93	13.7948016
11/29/2028		$165,688.09	13.71%	96.00%	$22,716.57	12.0708737
05/31/2029		$188,404.66	13.16%	96.00%	$24,797.87	10.6154487
11/29/2029		$213,202.53	12.64%	96.00%	$26,939.30	9.38075172
05/31/2030		$240,141.83	12.13%	96.00%	$29,129.50	8.32841159
11/30/2030		$269,271.34	11.64%	96.00%	$31,356.43	7.42745218
05/31/2031		$300,627.76	11.18%	96.00%	$33,607.54	6.65274557
11/30/2031		$334,235.31	10.73%	96.00%	$35,869.99	5.98380823
05/30/2032		$370,105.30	10.3%	96.00%	$38,130.76	5.40386749
11/29/2032		$408,236.06	9.99%	97.00%	$40,797.47	4.89912626
05/31/2033		$449,033.53	9.69%	97.00%	$43,528.37	4.45401037
11/29/2033		$492,561.90	9.4%	97.00%	$46,315.48	4.06040337
05/31/2034		$538,877.38	9.12%	97.00%	$49,150.40	3.71141947
11/29/2034		$588,027.79	8.85%	97.00%	$52,024.35	3.40119980
05/31/2035		$640,052.14	8.58%	97.00%	$54,928.27	3.12474543
........
05/31/2038		$1,013,573	7.15%	97.00%	$72,455.00	1.97321752
...........
11/29/2043		$1,960,433	5.27%	98.00%	$103,375.00	1.02018279
.................
11/28/2048		$3,139,783	4.31%	98.00%	$135,277	0.63698674
.................
05/29/2056		$5,639,679	3.67%	99.00%	$206,870	0.35463011