Bitcoin Forum

From crypto advocates to former skeptics, pundits are exaggerating themselves to predict a higher price for bitcoin.
Despite the current battle between bitcoin bulls and bears in the 40,000 to 50,000 price range, a raft of analysts and commentators have found their crystal ball for a brighter future for the price of bitcoin.
Bloomberg Intelligent Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlon points to historical data to suggest that Bitcoin is going for 100,000.
McGlon's argument revolves around the growing discount of shares in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which is at the same level as last year's black time fall. Discount refers to when shares of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust trade at a price lower than the value of the underlying bitcoin (usually they trade at a premium).

im not going to delve into the greyscale valuation as thats separate from bitcoin spot price stuff
anyways, lets look at some bitcoin price stuff

in the 'rounds' of the block halving, here are the peak prices
2009-2012: $32
2012-2016: $1.2k(37.5x)
2016-2020: $20k(16.6x)
2020-2024: $69k(3.4x)..so far
[spoiler below, scroll over to reveal 'prediction']
2020-2024: $146k(7.34x)
2024-2028: $474k(3.25x)
2028-2032: $682k(1.44x)
[spoiler above, scroll over to reveal 'prediction']


as you can see by each previous round the multiplier depreciates by ~2.+ (above 2 but under 3)

its imagined that the 2020-24 round should meet about a 7-8x of the last round (16.6/2.?)
which should be about $140k-$160k (at some point before 2024 block halving)

however right now even in the most expensive region of the planet. mining costs are under $70k right now so no one really wants to pay excessive premiums if everyone on the planet can mine for under $70k a coin

the hashrate would have to go up to have a supported good value underline(acquisition cost) to give the price a push up where people refuse to sell below

right now at 160exahash(year average).. using the electric cost(and hardware cost) calculation for range of $0.04 -$0.32 kwh electric
the window of underline value is $31k-$66k
(november 2021 seen 175exa which allowed a window upto $73k, which allowed for the ATH of $69k inside that window)

and that explains why the spot price sits inside this window

the hashrate would have to be 240exa to push the top end cost window to $100k, by which the bottom end support will rise to $47k, meaning.. just like we shouldnt see $10k a coin again due to todays bottom end being $31k. if the hashrate achieves a sustained 240exa we should start to see a no return below $45k again. and a possible launch to $100k

this 240exa, as a stable hashrate minimum is achievable within the 2020-24 round.. meaning we can see a $47k-$100k before 2024, its just not happening this month
as is a 400exa which translates to ~$160k top end of window value, but bottom end of $80k. meaning the price can be anything in between

Yes however what is different this time is that we got the Bitcoin ETF. And this is one reason why there is a discount. People are buying the ETF instead of GBTC because the fees are lower for the ETF. So I don't think this is a correct analysis from last year.

Also GBTC premium/discount had lots to do with the massive amount of Cash and Carry trades that were being performed in Q1 2021. Remember the massive premium that the derivative markets were giving? Something like 50% annulized APR rates? Well many did arbitrage that way with GBTC and hence why there was such a big discount. Right now there are no cash and carry trades going on. The funding rates are neutral pretty much.