Bitcoin Forum

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jan/12/us-inflation-rate-december-2021

United States is losing control over inflation. 7% is something similar to Brazil inflation, which was 10% last year. That is terrible.

I saw this chart today, showing how much purchasing power USD lost since 1912:
https://i.imgur.com/t0FooEj.png
source: https://www.instagram.com/p/CYohEjmLE6q/ (Made by a Brazilian economist)

100 USD would have the same purchasing power as 3,53 USD did in 1912.

Central banks money printing strategy, public spending all those strategies are costing a lot to us, individuals. Our savings are shrinking due to high inflation all over the world.

I believe bitcoin was designed for this situation. Lets see how will it react.

I've noticed the shift from anger towards government adding to inflation by reckless spending and supply chain issues move to the corporations. As if the corporations are responsible for supply chain issues, that they are merely raising the price for their own corporate greed and not because fiat currency is losing its value. Anything to keep people occupied -- can't hold the government responsible if the people don't know who's to blame for inflation. And with most things, demonize the capitalist system, the private businesses, in order to sell the idea that it is more government that can fix inflation. Meanwhile, they want to spend even more money in fighting Covid as well as a social spending spree to the tune of trillions.

Inflation rates beyond 2-3% are not only harmful for the economy but for the people as well. Considering US they are not just facing this problem alone:
1. They have huge debts
2. The cases of COVID-19 are rising drastically
3. People are leaving their jobs because of bad conditions at the workplace
4. Economy is slowly going into recession
5. Price of dollar is getting weaker
6. Government is printing excessive amount of money and funding weird projects
What I do think is, all this with inflation as well would cause extreme probelms for the whole economy ending up with them not being at the top.

When 85% of the population was making less than 15$ per week  ;D.
Or it would be nice to see how much would that 100$ be if you would have put them in a bank, it might not be 4.3 billion like in Futurama but I bet it's not 100$ either.


1. Mostly to themselves
2. So do cases everywhere
3. Yet the overall number of poeple employed is climbing
4. What?????
5. In regards to what? Euro? Yen? Pounds?
6. Yeah, that is the only actual issue.

As someone who has seen over 100% inflation, 7% yoy is nothing.
Wait till it hits again at least twice the value yoy for anything major to happen.

I have a similar information :)

If you had invested in 1965 $100 into SP500, you would have now $28,159.36, which is 28,059.36%, or 10.40% per year.

This huge! SP500 performance is amazing.

source: https://www.officialdata.org/us/stocks/s-p-500/1965

I do own some SP500 index funds, which are amazing despite of everyone saying it is a bubble.

The best defining of bubble is: 'Any asset that the price has skyrocketed but you haven't bought"  ;D

7% is really way too much for any developed economy, it's dangerous because GDPs won't be rising at the same rate which means the expenses are rising but the incomes of the people are not rising creating problem for common people. A surprising thing for me is how during 1929 great depression dollar became very strong, this is strange because generally more money is printed during depressions to create demand in economy and despite that dollar strengthen, can anyone explain this?

In short, there was no money printing during the Great Depression, which combined with people and businesses defaulting on loans and banks having a desperate need for cash, in their liquidation spree the prices simply couldn't keep up, lowering the value of assets and making with each step the dollar stronger. But as you can see, one good indicator doesn't mean everything is good, just as a full tank won't get you anywhere if you have an engine failure.

The moral of the story, be careful what you wish for  ;D


But, but ...but...everyone is saying you're going to lose money investing in the markets.
Of course, there is a difference between what poeple say and reality, just like you pointed out in the last line.

That is what bitcoin is for, it will be good to hold bitcoin than keeping fiat. You are specifically talking about US but there are fiat that are far worse than US dollar, more inflation in such countries. The worst investment I have seen is the people that are convinced by banks to hold fiat in fixed deposit for years, the people may not know that their money will not have value like people, the value lost will be more more than the interests they will be paid.

Damn right it's terrible--and not only inflation itself, but the availability of everyday items people need, as there's still some kind of supply chain chaos going on.  Good luck trying to buy cat food your cats will actually eat.  You'd be better off starting a mouse farm at home, and I say that only half-jokingly.  It'd be cruel to do so, but the economics would probably work out just fine.

Meanwhile, the headlines on every newspaper I see: "COVID cases spike".  Every fucking day.  It's as if the ship is sinking and the band is playing some horrible tune that isn't designed to secretly alert the crew that there's an impending disaster.  I've never seen things as bleak as this in my life, nor people acting as irrationally as they are.

Inflation is just the beginning.  Not sure if bitcoin is going to be the solution or not, but I'm hoping there is a solution, period.

I'm curious about those "bad conditions" though I'm not arguing that people are refusing to work.  I just saw an example of that tonight, where a store is closed because there wasn't enough staff to keep it open.  What are those conditions, exactly?  Being forced to wear masks?  Other COVID-related BS?

I would like to remind that this is not something that has just happened, as if a hurricane is coming, it is the result of policies that have caused this inflation.

Now the FED, seeing that inflation is getting out of control, seems to be going to act, and fast. It is not clear to me that they will end up being as tough as they have planned. If you want to take away the drug from a drug addict, the best thing to do is to reduce the doses little by little, if you take it away all at once he will have cold turkey.

Turning to the economy, if as a result of the Fed's policies to curb inflation, there is a crash in the stock market or if we go into a depression/recession, they are going to have to go back to supplying the junkie with drugs.

The transitory narrative is slowly ousting itself.

Even with the depressed CPI figures, it should be clear to anyone that the dollar is losing its purchasing power, and fast.

Certainly not a good look for the Fed who aren't even considering raising rates that seriously at the moment. Seems like Powell is more concerned about the stock market rather than inflation.

This time around I am making sure that a good amount of my money is being stored as Bitcoin or any other good cryptocurrency, but most especially I store my money with Bitcoin. This is very important, and over the years I have reaped the benefits of doing that.

Whenever I receive my monthly salary, a part of it goes into Bitcoin and I just keep it there as savings, and then the rest stays in my bank account, and that is where I do most of my expenses. Sometimes I can also decide to do a little bit of expenses from my amount that is stored in Bitcoin. I just try to balance everything, and it has been really helpful, if there happens to be inflation, I am not losing much.

The high levels of inflation in the US were pretty much expected,after the massive money printing and the COVID stimulus checks.How is the time for the Federal Reserve to raise the interest rates and stop the money printing,quantitative easing and other policies.Unfortunately the federal government of the USA will have to cut a lot of the government costs and try to lower the ridiculous multi-trillion federal budget deficit,in order to fight the inflation.This is highly unlikely to happen.
The devaluation of the US dollar will continue,but the US dollar will remain as the strongest and most stable fiat currency in the world,which sounds absurd. ;D

Oh yes I forgot that this indicator doesn't signify the strength of dollar but instead signifies the weakness of prices of commodities, great depression obviously brought down prices a lot, so obviously dollar purchasing power went up. But yes one indicator can't be a barometer of the whole economy. But if you see this indicator the most bullish times are indicating when dollar weakened the most.

I don’t even care about news like this. This is not the first time that they are always talking about the economy falling and inflation rising and all that, it's even becoming very annoying at this point. You would see economists and even government workers talking about inflation rising and all that, then you will be asking yourself why these people never do what they are meant to do or play their roles in making sure that there isn’t this inflation that is being talked about, and also ensure that things are going pretty well as they should.? All they do is talk about it and it still happens, they never bring any solution at all. I’m better off making sure that my money is being held tight in crypto.

Well you atleast should be aware of this kind of news. Inflation and economy failing means cash are going to flow into cryptocurrencies so its kind of a blessing for us that are already in crypto space.


Its because there is no effective solution for inflation. Its always going to happen and the very least, all they can do is to reduce the inflation rate through various of method. Obviously shit happens and one of them is the pandemic which forced alot of countries inflation rate to skyrocket so its kinda expected that this would happen anytime soon

In any developed world, and plenty of developed nations like India, a vaccine is available. The vaccine, by and large, prevents hospitalization and death.

The inflation caused by Covid was entirely preventable, and in essence, artificial. As I mentioned before, the entirety of inflation is based on the dollar losing its value due to supply and demand, not corporate greed. So people leaving their jobs due to Covid after a vaccine has been introduced is a byproduct of generous unemployment benefits with the federal government unwilling to let Covid go.

If you made the case that an economy should be shut down for 1.5 years back in March of 2020 when the world entered a lockdown period, people would have rightfully made the case that the economy would crash, supply chains would collapse, and inflation would run rampant. But somehow, there is a willingness to accept Covid restrictions even if that means withering away a strong economy because there are hundreds of thousands of cases of the sniffles.

Cases shouldn't dictate Covid policy, only hospitalization and deaths. The reason you're seeing people leave their jobs, aside from unemployment benefits, are because they're led to believe that Covid is a death sentence. It's far from it.

I noticed that as well, they are trying to shift away the blame to anything and anyone except themselves, now if the governments could not print their own money and do so whenever they wanted they may have a point as inflation in that case will be caused by third party, but when they have the money printing machine they cannot shirk away their responsibilities no matter how hard they try, and people are realizing this as the inflation is simply too high for people to ignore.

I would guess that many people do it exactly for this purpose. I have the same logic, plus I do not trust the people who run fiat, it is the governments, central banks, basically humans all around, fair or not fair it is still people. Crypto has nobody at the top, we decide what will happen and that is why I believe that we are going to be fine.

So, if we keep this going, then we are talking about something much more valuable here, we are talking about the freedom to choose and no inflation, which is why people invest into bitcoin. It is not just you and me, not everyone is in this for getting rich, sometimes people are protecting their store of value.

I guess the deception lies with the marketers of that bank who will try all means possible to convince new customers to get their money fixed in the bank and the most popular message, is how stable the capital will be in the fixed account not minding the revised effect of the inflation rate within the time speculation in the agreement of the fixed money.
The effect of global warming is hitting hard on the economy of most countries and the US inflation rate is far less compared to those countries in the third world.

Now, more people are going to look for ways to combat inflation that's outside the fiat system, in my opinion, this is probably high time that we would see more people in the US buy bitcoin in hopes that it might hedge themselves from the inflation that only steadily grows by year. I have one question though, will a deflation help US? Because 7% is pretty high for an annual inflation which should be around 2% or less.

They said it's 7 percent and we all know the real inflation is much more than that and we can easily understand it when we see the people's purchasing power and compare it the last years during the last years as far I know people had less problem with buying the essential goods and stuff such as food and cloth this situation is worse in the US however inflation is increasing in all over the world, by the way in 2021 and US was facing many economic problems this inflation rate was not unexpected at all for many people.

This is not true anymore. There are many third world countries which had smaller inflation rates in 2021. Take a look here:

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=world

For example, look at those countries inflation rate:

7% is a pretty high inflation rate, even for a developing country.

bitmover showed you that is not true all the time, and inflation is not just a measure of how well the country goes or how much money its printing.
Is Turkey's economy worse than Chad's? Is Japan not printing money?

In both cases it's a no, Japan is printing money but poeple don't spend it, there is no extra demand for goods so there is no inflation s there aren't price increases, Turkey is having problems with debt, low foreign reserves, and a virus that hit its main exports, Chad has little to care about it since is a subsistence economy where the demand for foreign things was low in the first place, just $965M for a year.

There are cases and cases, and also there is one more thing, counties don't get hit at the same time, and some that might get out of this unscratched will suffer after. This is not 2009, which was a financial crisis, this is right now is a production crisis.


Some of the consequences of arriving at the point of instructing poeple to cut t-shirts to make masks (https://www.facebook.com/cdc/videos/1260776464113699/) as you produce everything outside.

It is surprising that people start talking about inflation as the collapse of the dollar when it is already happening, and not earlier, when many warned about it. But okay, this is not so important anymore, because the situation is much worse, which means that industrial inflation in the United States is already more than 25%, which leads to collapse. As for BTC as a replacement for the dollar, unfortunately there is no 100% guarantee that it can help you and others save your wealth, because there have already been cases when the price of BTC went down sharply and many lost a lot of money. Hence the conclusion that this may happen again. What to do in this situation? I would recommend to study more information not from crypto analysts but from industrial analysts who may have a number of solutions in this situation. But if I had a question about maintaining my wealth, then I would probably distribute my funds into various assets, for example, some cryptocurrencies, gold, real estate, and possibly shares of some industrial companies.

The inflation rate is well above the goal of 5% per year, but there are still things that make people choose the USD. One of them is pride that they have such an old currency that, while loses value, is still perceived as an oasis of stability. Then there's also trust in the US government, and the trust of other countries in the USD as a stable reference point from which they measure how their own currencies are doing. And while Bitcoin can be a savior in the long-term prospect, it's not doing well nowadays, so people are reasonably more afraid of it than of a manageable decline of fiat. Maybe times will change, but for now, I don't think this news of unseen inflation is going to change many minds about the fiat vs crypto preferences.

To distribute wealth between bitcoin and productive physical pieces of lands containing sources of water would be a good alternative thinking on long run and on the worse scenarios. Meanwhile, it would be interesting to invest in turning the property into a sustainable one, able to provide you energy, food and water without depending on third party services.

Real estate is always very interesting, but I also think about the possibility the economical crisis becomes so deep that people won't have money to pay for the rent of the properties, so it means loss for the owner, as the taxes keep coming in, even though no one lives there. I'm really concerned about it, because the currently economical scenario looks unprecedented in the history of the world. So far governments have been just sowing the soil with their (bad) actions, manipulating the economy at its maximum, but once the reap starts, it will be catastrophic and inevitable, so everyone will suffer the consequences of what was done during so many decades of negligence and irresponsibility regards traditional fiat system.

Inflation is an awful tax, hitting poorer people the most.

I will try to go against the wind this time, and I will play being the contrarian, and I will try to figure out why next year inflation will be lower than today's

• Pandemic will have a lesser impact on supply chains
• ” Base effect": Inflation measures the price variation over a fixed period of time. So if we move along in time, we will use higher prices as a starting point, then reducing the increase of inflation.
• FED announced a series of hikes, beginning in March '22 and a more "hawkish" stance against inflation.
• A series of "measures" has been announced to "modify" the inflation measurement. Be sure that not a single adjustment in history made inflation grow
• Mid Term election: be sure that Joe Biden won't be happy to get to the mid-term election with inflation higher than 3%.

I feel like some of these companies are exaggerating the repurcessions of rising inflation rates in the USA to be honest. USA isn't a small country that would need to depend on BTC thanks to rising inflation.

They probably have multiple plans in place in order to overcome these issues just like they have done so many times in the past.

This is exactly why inflation is so dangerous.

Not a lot of people actually think that it's going to be serious, including the Federal Reserve, meaning that they actually don't take action against what is happening (which should be raising interest rates).

You should hold BTC as a hedge REGARDLESS of whether or not you think the country which issues the currency is "too big to fail". There is simply no such thing in the fiat space - no exceptions, all fiat have gone to zero.

LOL.. net disapproval ratings in the -15% to -20% range and most of the polls are showing a fair advantage for Republicans in the 2022 Generic Congressional Vote (even if the GOP and Dems receive the same amount of vote, it is going to be a Red landslide because of concentration of Dem vote in the inner city areas). With or without inflation, it is going to be a wipeout for Biden/Kamala during the Senate/House elections later this year. And as far as the senate is concerned, the GOP is going to regain some of the swing states such as Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, and probably Arizona and Nevada as well.

I think one reason why its so high is due to the used car market which is one measure how the CPI is calculated. I've been in the market for a newer vehicle and let me tell you its crazy out there. Basically if you are looking at any vehicle over 2-3 years old, you are going to be paying the same or more than that vehicle was priced when it was new. And it doesn't end there. There is hardly any supply. You can't be picky about color or mileage or options.

Its pretty bad for people who end up getting their vehicle stolen, crashed or broken down. They got no choice. And since they are overpriced by 25%, you need to pretty much have a down payment for that 25% if you want to finance. Since banks know the car will depreciate very fast when supply ramps up. Hence this is one reason why we are seeing a 7% inflation value.

Lol!
Apparently ZH disagrees with me:

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/05/15/blobd55f93d015f57e5b.jpeg (https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1482068734969888769?s=20)

Shangai China Containerized Freight Index measure the cost between Various routes Between China and the resto fo the world (a China local version of the Baltic Dry Index). The higher the index, the higher the cost for shipping the same teu's (Container's unit measure).

So apparently, sullpy chain as disrupted as they were.

It looks like most of the purchasing power was lost up to the 1980's, at which point the decline almost becomes flat - that means the dollar has held it's value relatively well since that time and it would be a whole different graph if you focused on recent history. The fact that inflation was near all time lows before an unforeseen crisis of a global scale hit is actually a positive thing for the US dollar and any similarly effected currency. It means it is stable. Just look at Bitcoin over the last couple years, at times it has gone up 100% in the space of months and also dropped 40% since the all time highs. It doesn't have traditional inflation, but it is so volatile that the average user struggles to understand the value of it at times, that seems much more dangerous.

Nonsense. Biden's net approval ratings are bad, but they aren't that bad. They are closer to -9.1 points currently. He is performing badly, but still better than Trump whose approval ratings sunk into the 30s.

Also, polls aren't always reliable. Best example is the Hillary vs Trump polls. The democrats and the republicans are locked in a neck and neck battle as usual.

When was the last time a Democrat president had his approval ratings in early 30s? Democrats are supposed to have a 3-4 percentage edge over Republicans in nationwide polling, because there are deep-blue states like California, New York and New Jersey which are among the most populous states. On the other hand, deep-red states like Alabama and Oklahoma are sparsely populated. Even if the GOP and the Dems receive the same number of votes, GOP is going to win by a big margin. So these polls should be alarming for the leftwing.

That is ALWAYS like that, it is not just about high ones, even the low ones were always fake and it was higher, still lower than today of course but higher than what they said. Governments can't accept the fact that they screwed up financially, and ruined the whole nation, so they always pressure these statistic places to show something that is lower than what it is, in order to calm the people down and say it is not that bad.

I believe it is at least 10%+, how higher than 10 is beyond me to understand. In my nation inflation is beyond control, I can't live with double the money I used to make, thank god I earn in dollars otherwise I would be screwed right now.

Something going and down is not called inflation. That is investment and things go up and down in value when you invest them. Just because apple stock goes up and down, doesn't make it "inflation" because it makes no sense right, or gold going up and down doesn't mean it is "inflation", you do not use that word for that purposes. You use it for understanding the price of things going up and USA has sucked for a while.

Just because it has been flat doesn't mean that it was actually flat, look at school prices in the 80's and look at it today, look at hospital visits and look at it today. You will see that most stuff went up, most stuff that people needed but not daily stuff. You do not go to hospital every day, or you just go to college once or none (rarely few times), so they do not considered in the inflation but obvious. Just because milk prices stayed relatively same, doesn't mean inflation was fine.

The truth is that they cannot longer hide how high is the inflation which is why they are admitting that it is at 7%, however any person that stopped for a moment and did the math on some of the articles they are buying will quickly realize that inflation is way higher than that, however I still think that even if people know that bitcoin could be a hedge against inflation many will decide to not invest in it, as if there is something that many people hate is the volatility of his market.

Bitcoiners can be bear than bull this year, nobody know if this year will be bullish but bitcoin price prediction in a short time guess can be inaccurate and if there are more bears this year, the price of bitcoin may fall to or below $30000. We have seen how bitcoin price can be disappointing sometimes, this makes short term guess not to be accurate even if correct. It is good to have long term prediction which will be profitable because bitcoin price will still surpass $69000.

Bitcoin will help not for people that hold bitcoin for short time but people that keep their bitcoin for long will make profit from it. Some people will buy other ones like Gold too.

Deflation has disadvantages too, countries prefer to go for inflation because of some reasons, they do not like to go for deflation. But if a country will want to go for deflation, this should because they are producing more products in the country than they import or need from another country. Some countries can later have increase work force and production but they still have inflation because government can not do without inflation, only that the inflation will be lessen.

Yes, I saw that on news. The USA is having a supply chain issue and shopping malls are empty. People can't even buy bread, milk, and toilet paper. This happens because Many people store huge amounts of goods for the winter due to the omicron outbreak. Many people blame the federal government and shipping companies for this situation. Nearly 58% of Americans think shipping company is behind this supply shortage and supply chain bottleneck that happens. And I think this is true because many companies and factories shut down or reduce their production because of their workers being sick or locked down in their resident. That's why shipping company cut off their schedule by predicting a drop in demands for raw materials.

Experts believe that this supply chain issue is not going to fix easily. It could take 7 to 9 months for things being normal. As soon as we vaccinated more people situation could improve more quickly because data shows the vaccine is working against new variants of the corona virus.

ZH disagrees with everything that still has a beating heart on this planet, we've already gone through 10 extinctions, 1000 crises, and 10 nuclear wars according to them, all perfectly predicted in advance by 10 years.

The container freight issue can't be solved that easily, and of course, not in a month where demand is extreme during a holiday in the western world, more containers flocking to US and EU and nothing coming out, plus the huge amount of time need for a round trip, two months and even more, if we speak Shanghai > ​Houston.

But things will go back to normal as demand dwindles and slowly but surely capacity is increased and the new year comes in China which is usually a period of manufacturing shutdown. Things will go back to normal just as you've said in the first message, the only place where it's not going to happen is over at ZH.

Oh btw:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-13/worlds-largest-shipping-company-collapses-trade-war-reality-strikes
(of course deleted but caching helps)


Maersk shares are up 4x from the date of the article.  ;D

There is also a situation with the trucking community where they are blackmailing the whole nation to let them not be vaccinated. That is a fact, many truckers refuse to follow orders to places that mandates vaccination. As I have said before, pay the vaccinated ones insanely high amount and fire the ones who refuses it. This is not really about vaccination or anything else at the moment, it is about one sector having the power to not follow rules set by the government. If everyone has to follow the orders then everyone has to follow them, if nobody follows them then nobody follows them.

We can't have a scenario where everyone has a mandate on ANYTHING whereas truckers are allowed to bypass it. Either truckers follow this rule too, or nobody does, that is the important part. I mean this could be about anything, vaccination is just example here for me, it is either for all or for none, we can't have for all except one.

Just checked the live crude oil prices and they are edging up towards the $100 per barrel mark. If breached, this will be a very important psychological level. Three digit prices were last seen in 2014. And this would translate to disaster for oil consuming countries such as USA, China, India and Japan, by further pushing up the inflation rate and trade deficit. Now they can't even attempt to replace gasoline-run vehicles with EVs, as Lithium prices have rocketed upwards. EVs are now unaffordable for the vast majority of the population. I won't be surprised if the inflation rate hits double digits later this year.

I am not surprised about this case, because when something becomes a trend and there is a high demand for it, there is also the possibility that the price or the value will increase, higher than it was before. So, lithium has now increased in value and that is because of the demand for it has also increased. Before when there was nothing like EV, and no one really cared much about lithium, the price was low and that was because the demand wasn’t much.

But, since the demand now is getting much and there are lots of companies now jumping on the production of EV, then you should also see the value increase as well to match the level of demand that there is. That is just the case here, and it would still go further.

Inflation is really something else these days, and anyone who doesn’t have one way or the other that they can be able to beat inflation, then they are making a really huge mistake. You can’t just between a simple job, relying on the US dollar every month, and at the same time inflation is increasing.

As time goes on you would say that you have nothing common because prices for everything would have gone up, and life would be quite difficult for you. So, this is why it is good to invest in Bitcoin, because it is moving a different direction from the US dollar, and every other currency there is. While other currencies are losing their value due to inflation, Bitcoin continues to gain more value.

You need to check the price again because there's a decline in the price of the Crude oil price at the time of writing this message.

Are you sure the Crude oil price will maintain the 3 digit price when the FEDs were still planning to print more money and there's still an increase in cases of Covid-19/Omicron?

The inflation definitely increases this year if the government still follows the same old strategy but I think some people also play a role in this issue because they also want to make more profit and this is what I believe that influenced Lithium price skyrocket.

I believe that this new increase is mainly due to the fact that 2020 and 2021 had a big problem with people going out, which in return meant oil prices dropped, at one point I remember something like negative, like literally pay to hold it let alone can earn from it. So now that we are back on track and now that we are working again and everything is nearly back to normal (even though covid is not done, it is getting better), that resulted with people using more and more oil.

So, oil companies went from "we need to halt all oil production because it worths nothing now!" to "we need to find more oil!!" in a single year, and that resulted with lack of oil, and obviously the price skyrocketed. Eventually the production and the demand will see eye to eye and that is when everything will be normally priced again, will take a while but it will surely happen.