Bitcoin Forum

The purchase price of Microstrategy in Ave is around $31,500. Additionally, Tesla's average buy-in price is $36k. Is Elon going to sell?

What are your thoughts, gentlemen?

I'm pretty sure they(and their CFOs) bought bitcoin for the intent of holding it(and definitely not trading) for years or possibly decades. It would be utterly dumb for them to panic dump bitcoin just because the price crashed. They're not retail traders in the first place.

If they're going to sell, they should have done that at the top. These people knew when to get in and to get out and if it's just about selling, they've probably done it already.

But if their main focus is holding.

Do not expect them to sell at any moment from now on. Let's wait for a few days and they might bring more bitcoin into their stash and will take this dipping opportunity to buy more.

I'm pretty sure Musk and Saylor aren't stupid enough to buy high and sell low like the average get-rich-quick noob you see panicking on here/Reddit/Twitter whenever the price dips.

Also, this:

The fundamentals of bitcoin were the same a few months ago at $67k as they are today at sub $40k. When we are at $67k, people were lamenting that it wasn't cheaper so they could buy more. Now it is cheaper and they are panic selling instead. ::)

Michael Saylor was implying yesterday on twitter that he is going to stay in for at least 4 years. I don't think that the current dump has change anything. (And imho, if the 4 year barrier is broken, next step is indeed "forever").

Price doesnt determine value, its not the reason to buy sell or hold purely on.  A large part of BTC market is speculative but when they invest to such a large extent they cannot make decision by price or they would have to have been far more active trading wise in doing so.
   This current pricing is no worse then the rest of the year, its slightly better looking now I would rate it to have developed over the last year and ridden out the idea of a spike up and spike down type movement.   It might not be as positive as some had hoped but longer term its doing fine imo and the year to year picture is the biggest worry for the largest holdings imo.

Comments above tells us that they are most likely not going to do that. Apart from the price volatility, I don't see other reasons why they would sell. They haven't converted majority of their assets to crypto have they? These guys are pretty good at managing their finances and I would just assume their company have enough fiat to remain liquid for years. That also means they won't be forced to sell BTC.

The only reason they would do this is for shorting.
Therefore, all scenarios are possible, especially since these institutions can buy and that the announcement will not be made until several months later, when the quarterly reports appear.

Now there is no logical justification for such declines. However, we have not heard many who are afraid to sell, and therefore the opportunity is now golden for everyone who wants to buy and make profits.

As for Michael Saylor, with the positive videos I hear from him, I don't think he will think about selling soon.

They already understand the cycle of crypto market so they are confident to invest millions of dollars regardless of high or low price, panic when bear market is only for noobs because they don't understand market patterns, noobs trade for small profits but long term holders of Btc will always be winners forever in cryptocurrency history.

Possibly. But I don't think there's any reason for such companies(that aren't specifically trading/investing related) to short, regardless of market sentiment. Probably sell a small amount just to re-balance their balance sheets and to be able to afford more development; but shorting? I don't think so.

Yup...  And if really Saylor had no choice but to exit from all the BTC under his custody, I think he wouldn’t say or do it outright.  He’ll prolly fake cancer or something and be gone from everyone’s sight.  :D

Seriously tho if somebody has to get antsy, it’s his creditors who loaned him the money for him to buy a huge load of BTC.  Lol.  But as long as he’s capable of paying interest then I guess there’s no problem.

People like Saylor have very long term projections on bitcoin, their positions are so massive that it takes long periods of time for them to accumulate them.
So the short term price is not that much of a concern, they look for global adoption increasing each year.
All industries experience downturns, even revolutionary ones.

It's hard to say what's in his head, but he certainly didn't make an investment like this without a plan. In addition, his initial investment took place back in 2020, when the price of BTC was just around $20k or less - the average price at which he bought was around $30k if you take into account the entire period from 2020 until today.

Should the price go even further down, and if we really confirm the four-year cycle and the new crypto winter, Saylor may have no choice but to sell part of BTC.

Shorters will always do whatever they can just to drop the price of bitcoin. I feel like it is really not a big bad deal for any of us to buy when it is this low. Remember even Warren Buffet himself said that the best profitable years of his life came after a big drop, that 2008 helped him grow his companies so much. It obviously worked great for him since he became even richer, and obviously it requires you to have cash to get in just at the right time, but we are half way there anyway.

We are at the great time, it is low right now and we can get in, we could 2x in a year, all there is left is having money to invest. Not everyone have money to invest right now and I know that, and I can't tell anyone to just go out and sell their car and put the money into crypto, that would be silly, but at the same time if you do have money then it is not time to be scared and you should get in.

I do not think that is the case, one thing we need to understand is that you do not get to be that rich and make huge mistakes like buying an asset at a price and selling it at a lower price, I really think that we could see the opposite reaction from them, basically instead of selling they will begin to buy bitcoin now that it is priced at affordable prices again, affordable for them of course, and by doing this they will increase the demand for bitcoin while they will also decrease the downward inertia of the price, so bitcoin will recover from this quicker than if they were not in the market.

even if those two people sell, they definitely won't announce it to the public...

Microstrategy's reputation soared because of bitcoin, if they come back and sell the bitcoins they bought it is very likely that Microstrategy will lose reputation, as well as Elon Musk. they are both smart people, and surely their belief in bitcoin will not waver just because of the bear market alone.

Elon and Saylor are two different cases.
First, there is the size of the business involved, Tesla vs Microstrategy which there is not even worth a debate, then there is the way they acquired those coins, for Tesla, it was a purchase of 0.1% compared to its size made from their funds, in the case of Micro it was totally different.


So unlike Musk who could easily write off that 1.5 billion in the case of Saylor his entire purchase was made with borrowed money from other people's pockets, and borrowed money needs to be paid back. As weird as it may sound, in the case of a (totally unrealistic) price collapse the first one to blink will be Saylor and not Musk, and it's not really about blinking but rather running away with a  mob of angry "investors" demanding their money back.

And why would they sell if they are not going to make a profit? their intention is to buy cheap bitcoin, so in the contrary, instead of selling, I'm thinking the opposite, they might be buying when the price hits $36k and $31k.

Those whales are wise enough, as the saying goes, buy when there is blood in the street so I think that's what they are going to do in the next couple of dips.

Last time I checked on Microstrategy, it basically relied on Bitcoin's performance to exist, that's how deeply invested it got. So Microstrategy could just collapse if Bitcoin falls below certain level for a long enough period of time. And as we are approaching the average buy price of Microstrategy, I can only imagine how stressed Michael Saylor gets. I don't believe he is a genius visionary who predicted every Bitcoin up and down and now calmly sits and watches it all play out. He strikes me more as a guy who let his initial success drive him to make more and more reckless investments.

I doubt they're worried even at the slightest. They have made a lot of money on other ventures with lots of pressures too, and bitcoin and crypto, IMO, is just one of those ventures that they have to face such situations wherein their backs are against the wall and they can't do anything. Sure they can sell, but that will ultimately destroy what they have built in the years. If ever they sell, it will not be all of their stash. Come to think of it, how many bear and bull markets have we encountered within the last decade? Sure enough there is a high chance that those things happen, and we are in the phase wherein everything is painted red.

Isn't he still profitable not only massively with his personal trades, but also with his company's Bitcoin purchases?  Does he have to give back any bonuses or salary?  Do we suddenly forget his name?  Will his creditors break his kneecaps if he can't pay?  Is he having to eat ramen or apply for a job at McDonalds?  Will he suddenly find himself without bikini babes at his mansion?

I think if you answer those questions to yourself, you'll know he's not too worried.  I'm sure if Bitcoin goes to 0 he's still acquired more wealth than 99% of the folks on this forum.  I don't think that's something to get antsy about.  If anything he's plotting another massive buy with a debt offering and trying to get some billionaire buddies on board.  I think his approach is for people to buy all the bitcoins and price them at whatever he wants.  A lower price could be viewed as an easier path to get there.

This part in bold type deserves a merit.

I doubt that he cares too much.

It's not that he has much of a choice as to whether or not MSFT dumps the bag. He has committed on numerous occasions to shareholders that he will continue to hold for eternity.

Honestly, that strategy doesn't make much sense given that a) there is not yield generated on any of the BTC holdings and b) anyone looking to hold BTC for the long term should probably avoid buying it in the form of proxy stock.

Microstrategy’s bitcoins bought on 2020 might be profitable, however, their bitcoins that were bought during 2021 are presently with a loss according to this article.



https://i.ibb.co/QkrgN7f/EA8-B50-B0-347-E-47-C9-B450-1-AF9-C4-B56527.png

Source https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-19/bitcoin-hodler-saylor-says-microstrategy-will-never-sell-stash


However, we should not be worried about Michael Saylor. He appears to be a strong handed hodler who will have an ulcers proof stomach to hold until the end of time hehe. But the person who we should be monitoring is Elon Musk and also Tesla. Elon is more unpredictable and Tesla’s bitcoins is almost in loss with an average price of $34,200. It would not be very shocking if there is an SEC filing that announces Tesla’s dump of bitcoins.



Estimates have suggested that Tesla bought its $1.5 billion BTC stash at an average price of $34,200 a coin.

Source https://coinmarketcap.com/alexandria/article/revealed-how-much-profit-tesla-has-made-after-buying-bitcoin

There is nothing to worry about Michael Saylor as he can have more experience on what he needs to do related to market situations. If Tesla's dump bitcoins, that can make the price go down for more and make more people panic while they still hold their bitcoin. But we should not think too serious about that instead of focusing on how to buy more bitcoin at a low price. It is a hard situation for smallholders but it could be hard too for a big holder like the companies that already bought bitcoin at more than $40k because they are now losing their money if they sell their bitcoin.

If they can still hold and buy more bitcoin, their average buying price can get down and they can rebalance their portfolio and I think they lose will not be too big and have more chances to make a big profit later. We as a smallholder needs to use this time to accumulate more bitcoin and this is a good time to buy more bitcoin.

As much as he has a long term view, at some point he may get anxious. I don't think the current price is going to change Saylor's plans, if anything he is thinking about how to finance the next purchase, but now let's assume the price in a few months goes below $20K, which would never have happened in previous cycles (going below the previous ATH), but which is not impossible to happen. I think he would be a little nervous.

Saylor has turned his company into a derivative product of Bitcoin, and nervousness in the markets translates into considerable price declines I think something will affect his mood, even if he has a long term vision.

...or DCA, this is really what he has been practicing since 2020. They have always
seemed to buy when the markets are down.

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It would be a complete U-turn from what he has been preaching if he were to sell.

I believe he believes 100% in Bitcoins future so if he is a HODLer he will continue to HODL.

Of course, these are two different cases - Saylor played all in on BTC, and Mr. Mars bought a chewing gum that he can spit out at any time without regretting it too much - for someone who has hundreds of billions, one or two doesn't mean too much - noting that he has already sold 10% (and maybe more) of BTC that his company bought.

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In the long run that would be very good news, no one needs that manipulator and the distorted idea that he means something to Bitcoin. His 40 000 BTC means nothing, just scares people like you who worry about what he will do. If I have to vote for BTC in Mr.Mars pocket or all those BTC in the wallets of ordinary people, I choose the latter - hope he dumps those coins as soon as possible.

It's possible that they have already sold in $60K. Or they just hold.

They bought a lot of BTC, I'm sure they wanted profit through it so it's only logical for them to sell and make money out of it. Michael Saylor or Elon must have hired a bunch of traders who do manage their portfolio to grow. Saylor has a Grayscale platform himself, he knows how to do it himself. If we only knew the BTC they have, it will be clear for us to see.

Not a lover of Saylor, but the way he's been acting with his buys says anything but him keen to think in short term. Antsy doesn't at all feel like an option for someone who knowingly bought during a rally. You don't make those statement buys thinking of one or two years, or even one cycle (of about 4 years).


Am sure MS is prepared to take hits on two or three running years even. As long as they keep buying, they'll get their dues after the next halving rally.

Tesla still in profit today, amazing! ;)

MSTR stocks are getting hammered, down to $375, the lowest value ever since January 2020, the lowest value since their first bitcoin purchase.
And seems like it's not just the BTC price is causing this:

SEC Objects to MicroStrategy’s Accounting Adjustment for Its Bitcoin Holdings
https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/01/21/microstrategys-bitcoin-accounting-adjustment-is-rejected-by-sec-report/
Not anything new for him anyhow
https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2000-186.txt



Slight correction, as long as poeple keep lending him the money to buy coins he can take as many hits as he wants. :D
But I don't see the point in doing so, either go buy BTC directly or at least invest in something that still makes a profit out of BTC even during bear season, although the option here are pretty limited.

Its not really possible, we'd know about a seller of this size.   This is more gradual and crowd based selling by multiple people, a natural sell off though with pressure from external events I think.
  Even if Saylor hedged we'd probably know about that too, with the counter party having to be pretty considerable.   He is a large holder for sure

I would estimate if we close the weekly bar (https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/Akcwd.png) here it is appearing to be some kind of more nasty level sell off.   So it doesnt have to be taken in a fatalistic way but also (quite likely) the damage done will take time to accumulate momentum upwards.   The old guard in BTC wont be too surprised or wary about it, not new to have a bigger cycle.    I imagine Saylor knows people with level of experience even if he doesnt have it himself.

They are buying more for sure, to be honest, these days is the best time to buy Bitcoin, look how discounted it is.
And for Tesla, I am pretty sure that what's their Bitcoin balance is just small for them so I am positive that they are not selling it.

Even Michale Saylor, Microstrategy. We all know how huge a believer of Bitcoin Saylor is, they got diamond hands.

I don’t think Tesla will sell their holdings if it dips below their average. Who knows if it goes lower they can even buy more. However it’s different for Saylor….

From what I understand he raised some funds or created debt to buy some of his bitcoins. And I have no idea how it works but there might be a possibility that he might be forced to liquidate some of his position. If he bought it with pure cash then it’s a different story however a large percentage of his position was with raised funds and no idea if they are subject to any term. Bitcoin can dip too low and he might be pressured to sell unlike Tesla.

I never quite understood that either, giving someone else money to invest in something you could easily do yourself for better rates. If it was about interest, BTC's volatility simply doesn't make sense for that model.

Fully expecting Saylor to be announcing doubling down or tripling down on buys at this bargain price... I mean he's got to not look like he changed his mind, assuming he's cut from that cloth like all wealthy people putting money where their mouth are.

Why are you assuming that I am worried? Also, I was only comparing Elon and Michael Saylor’s conviction on their bitcoin investment and I was only speculating that Elon would be first to dump if one of them would dump.

If bitcoin dumps more from the present price, their quarterly income statement would lessen the company’s income or increase loss if unprofitable. This might possibly also affect the company’s stock price which will make shareholders unhappy.

In any case, why would you say that Tesla’s dumping of coins held in their treasury be good for bitcoin? Would this not lessen institutional adoption?

Also, agreed in more bitcoins should be in the pockets of ordinary people if also given the choice.

That will be without a doubt an interesting scenario, even if he did not sold all of his holdings if he sold some of his portfolio during the ATH then he has money and he can take advantage of the new dip or at least to resist it, still it is going to be interesting to see what he does from now on as the markets are really unstable with the whole Ukraine situation going on so it will be difficult to see recovery anytime soon.

Agreed. The thread should not be about if Michael Saylor is getting anxious, it should be more about what price is Michael Saylor waiting to buy the dip. It is very clear already that the community should not be worried about him or his conviction on his investment in bitcoin. Whatever Saylor is presently doing, we can be quite certain that he is always ready to buy more.

https://i.ibb.co/DwbVLZ9/C832149-D-966-E-434-F-A5-E1-8-B93-DFDB8-AFA.png
Michael Saylor in his room

Why would they sell LOW?? They have their whole future ahead of them to sell high. I doubt they got to be rich CEOs by implementing a sell at a loss strategy lol.

This, the most important part of being an investor is being capable of holding your investment even when it goes against your preferred direction, basically if the asset in which you invested goes down then it is very easy to give up and sell, but if you do that then you are never going to recover the money you lost, this is why it is important to watch the fundamentals of the asset in which you want to invest and if they are still solid then you have no option but to keep holding and wait until the negative trend passes.

My speculation for that question would be if Tesla and Microstrategy’s stock prices went down because their quarterly income statement is being affected negatively because of their bitcoins held in their treasury, this might cause shareholders to pressure the company to sell their coins. However, between Tesla and Microstrategy, it is very clear that Tesla would be the first to dump if one of them dumps.

Also, it is not only Tesla and Microstrategy that are exposed to bitcoin. There are other institutional investors who are holding it, who also might dump it without thinking twice if their portfolios of stocks and bonds are taking losses. This might appear anatagonistic for much of you, however, I am not being antagonistic. This is reality.