Bitcoin Forum

Hi folks,

https://ewminteractive.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/running-flat-example.png


Current price (35k) is potentially C on the above picture.

Now check early 2017, this pattern happened:

https://i.ibb.co/cJ5mC7r/Screenshot-4.png

And the big picture of current price:

https://i.ibb.co/RgN5gwr/Screenshot-1.png


Not a financial advice but this pattern happens quite often in cryptocurrencies. Best of luck all  :-*

I'm not a fan of the wave theory, but it sure looks plausible and logical. There's a number of market theories right now and one of them states that we're going to be in a constant bull market with corrections within the bull trend from now on. If you look at the charts and zoom out back to 2017 you'll see that every single bubble (or FOMO ) market ended with a top and a very steep 50% drop.
In 2017 it all played out in a month. We needed about a week to correct 50% and another 2 weeks to reach -75%. This time 3 months in and we are barely touching 45% correction. For me this is a sign of strength in the market.

Note that charts can be very misleading. Even if we were to form a lower low here it's not over because this is driven by external conditions (the stock market). A bounce back on stocks will drive bitcoin up no matter at what level it will be. Check out the chart below. S&P500 had a lower low in 2008/9 and recovered. This whole part between 95 and 09 looks very much like bitcoin from mid 2020 until now.

https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2020/2/3/38948546-15807654174481814_origin.png

This is a very bad comparison. You should rather point to the fact that in normal economics we have a cycles and the current one is extremely long and it is difficult for us to estimate its effects after (if) it crash. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has never seen a global financial crisis (like the one around 1920, 1980, 2008) because it was created after last crisis. So If the parabolic chart you just posted is about to crash 50% ... BTC will crash 90% back to 3k$. Its not like I want to FUD because it will be nothing more than an opportunity to stack more. Its just possible scenario. Its also possible that it will crash after another year of pumping from 200k$ to 20k$ (or 5000$ to 2000$ for SP500)

Back to OP. Nice to have a little more hopium now :) But its nothing more than that. I don't see this pattern to have much strength.

I wouldn't call it very bad ;) Especially the lower low in 2009. It's my answer to OP's chart because I've seen people pointing out that as loing as Bitcoin doesn't hit a lower low vs last year it will bounce back up. S&P clearly hit a lower low in 2009 and bounced back up after that.
BTC had its own global crisis. Imagine the fear people felt when the biggest exchange took all their money and shut down, or when China banned mining. To a small economy like that it was a n event comparable to a country declaring bankruptcy and you could see it indicated by the price. IMO if we ever go back to 3k it's going to be a flash crash caused by a liquidation cascade. Such things have nothing to do with the real value. I've long argued that exchange price of Bitcoin does not fully represent its value. You need to count yearly average for that.

I also never had any luck with Elliot waves. I used to study them 10 years ago and basically in hindsight they were very reliable. However the issue is when you are forward trading instead of back testing it’s very difficult to see which wave you are in.

When you zoom out it’s always easy however when you are trading it live you will keep incorrectly guessing the waves and it’ll be very unreliable.

I think that C won’t happen, it won’t be a higher low but mostly likely has a better chance at being a double bottom. We will see. Most likely this week the $30K area might get tested.

Let's just hope it will happen, because to be honest i don't believe that such technique is accurate when it comes making prediction, because I've been practicing Eliot waves 6 months now in different time frame and keep back testing it but most of the results were false break outs and the price action always didn't follow what's your prediction base on how analyse the graph.

I'm not an expert on these methods and it all makes a little sense to me, but it confuses me even more than 2022 is compared to 2017 if we know that it followed after halving 2016, just as 2021 followed after halving 2020. If I understood correctly what the OP wants to say, it is that this year should actually be the right year we have been waiting for - provided that the four-year cycle is not repeated?

I have nothing against $100k this year, nor for the pattern to change - in fact, it would be nice for some change to happen, crypto winter can be quite boring and for some quite frustrating.

I guess everyone needs to fit their own agenda, find a pattern and compare it to the current market of 2022.

So yeah, I agree and I know wherey you coming from. I think the best position for us to hit that $100,000 is last year wherein it really went on a massive bull run. But perhaps this is the dreaded bearish market already so no more all time high, no 6 digits in the horizon.

Agree it is plausible, but only one of many that also are... But hard for me to agree that 100k is "very likely" when we can expect a number of impending market milestones for the US and global economic signposts in general. Namely, interest rate hikes, and stock market vulnerabilities. Bitcoin will not be immune to the effects of those this year.

So, yes, still on the cards. But very likely? Going to need a few more drinks to get on that bet.

Bull run has ended and might we cannot see this happening this year since like after the halving event happen from the past we see the bear market comes so maybe we can say from this thay 6 digits horizon is quite not possible for this year to come and maybe we can see is up om next halving since this will give us more clearer picture knowing halving is somehow a bull run activator if we base on its history.

It's true that the recent bullrun is over but that doesn't reversal is not possible when hitting a strong support. There's always a possible reversal on all support since it always dictate the trend for the next bull run cycle. I really hope for a new bull run cycle start this but the chance of it to occur this year is very low considering there's no upcoming big news happening in the future compare to last year ETF approval.

I'd like to believe that reversal is still possible even after the FUD since I'm still hoping to see that $100k within this year. But if we look at the chart of OP, the same thing as what I have expected to happen in Bitcoin but the only problem of it is that, it takes too long to see a pump and might go longer in the next few years or until the halving price tend to drop during that time.

For now, I'm just waiting for a positive News so that there will be a pump that would eventually break the $70k resistance. But if there is no pump next month then we're probably heading straight to the bear market.

 I do not agree that it takes time for bitcoin to go up. I know that 2017 happened and that skewed everyones mind about the potential for a comeback. This doesn't mean that we have to be like 2017 all the time, look at the 64k back in april and then under 30k during september or so, then 68k+ during october. This should show you that we are capable of taking it slow like 2017 if we want to, or make it quicker like october of last year as well. This all depends on what people want to do, and if we want to recover quickly then I can see us at 100k during next autumn as well. Usually the fourth quarter is where the magic happens and it could happen again this year.

Well, as speculated by many, still many are saying that $100k is possible.

And these patterns that are running similar in the past really happens but just to make sure that we don't get overwhelmed is to make yourself comfortable with what's happening in the market.

As a holder, if it does happen, that's gonna make everyone happy but let's just embrace the reality as of now.

If you mean Q4 then I'm still right since it's just too long to recover from this dump and we never know if there's another FUD dog will be released just like what the China, India, and Russia want. If ever there is another country that would do the same like what those three countries did then it's the end of what you are talking $100k but I'm still bullish you know, so there should be a pump somehow next month or so. It all depends now on what panic level are these people capable of holding long or buying the dip.

Indeed right now the market is bearish and everyone is afraid, but not forever the market will be like this, everything will have a reciprocity.
We're just looking at the bright side for now, maybe this is a dumping of bitcoin prices to go up in the next 8 months.
Why can you be so sure that bitcoin no longer has a high price?

Not only that, with bitcoin's narrative changing overtime, maybe the whole scenario had change as well. What I meant is that there is no pattern that we can look at the past and say that we will have the same this 2022.

Because it's like every cycle, the game is changing a lot, just like now, we have institutions entering the game and then a country putting their assets on bitcoin. So we may fit our agenda, but it doesn't mean it will be a hit. There could be deviation that we can't see right now.

I think the time for sell has gone because the market has started some running up with some strength indicating that correction back up to ATH high is beginning again. The times is for buy and hodling, Today showed momentum up and price is hanging above $38k at the moment after dropping last week.

Yes, the momentum is there and that's the reason that no matter what situation the market is, it will recover and those that have lost their hope a few weeks back then.

They're starting to see the light again with hope.

The dream for $100k will never die and no matter how long we're going to wait, that's not a problem. We've been tested by time and we're okay to wait until it comes.

Hopefully we see this happen. Many people said 100k last year but that clearly never happened.

So what's the difference here?