Bitcoin Forum

Though I am not sure if the news is firmly true or not but article news does say it that way. It claims that one of the tweet from @santimentfeed stated this. The analysis says the highest number of bitcoins that were first moved was in 2nd week of September.

The last week that is January last 7 days was showing heavy movement of bitcoins out of Exchanger.

This means the bitcoins were getting moved into cold storage. This could form huge resistance or backbone for the current bearish trend and thus stopping further liquidation of the bitcoin prices.

I am not pretty sure considering millions of bitcoins on the market, does 40,785 bitcoins gonna make any difference? (May be at some point but not much is it??)

 40,785 BTC Transferred as Bitcoin Reaches $39,000, A Historically Strong Sign for Price (https://www.coinstacknews.com/news/bitcoin/40785-btc-transferred-as-bitcoin-reaches-39000-a-historically-strong-sign-for-price/)

The tweet quote

40,000 plus bitcoins form a huge number. So when this huge amount of bitcoins are moving out of exchanges, there could be two main reasons,

1. Exchanges are moving to cold wallets
2. Investors are pulling out the liquidity from the exchanges and moving to cold wallets.

For reason one, you can't expect any impact because that's what exchanges do periodically. But if the second reason is true, then it might give a great support against the current bearish trend which might stabilize the price and might even push for higher level. But that is yet to be seen!

We can make whatever assumptions we want with the supply being locked up by hodlers, but the bigger factor is still the demand side of things. Bulls could all be withdrawing their coins but if not much people are buying, then probably don't expect that much upward movement just yet.

imagine there was 10 coins from 10 sellers in an exchange and $390,000 from 10 buyers in an exchange
removing 1 coin does not mean bitcoin is worth 10% more.

keeping 10coin and removing $39k does not mean bitcoin is worth 10% less

even if there are 9coins deposited. or $351,000 deposited(variate it as you please)
on the market people can make an order for:
0.01 for $390.00
0.01 for $390.50
0.01 for $391.00
0.01 for $391.50
..
..
0.01 for $400.00

where only $8295 is spend to buy only 0.21btc. but has increased the price to $40k/btc
it doesnt need to have $400k deposited to match 10 coins to become a $40k/coin price

in short. yes 40,000 coins may have exited an exchange. but the market orders are not filled by whole bitcoins or all deposited coins. market order lines are filled with a small subset of coin deposits. bought with a small subset of $ balance

order lines are not fixed to only sell whole bitcoins. and the price does not move depending on whole bitcoins or whole matching balance.

its not a case that if there are 10 coins and $390k deposited the price must be $39k
instead that $390k could be spent to only buy 0.5btc per order(10 people) meaning the price can be $390k spend for 5btc(10x0.5)
meaning the price is $78k/btc

Oh so this news is not as exciting as it should have been in the current bearish market. I thought so by number of coins too and also by the fact that the news does not really state whether it’s being withdrawn / moved by the exchanger or is it really some bulls making the cold storage readiness.

Moreover, since the number of bitcoins is in thousands there is nothing to get excited about. If someday they say millions of bitcoins are being locked up then it would have some impact on demand and supply formula. That would cause wavy reaction in the market.

nah, not exciting at all
spoiler: [its the exchange moving funds within its wallet] scroll/highlight to read

take this address
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/34xp4vRoCGJym3xR7yCVPFHoCNxv4Twseo
note the two -6022 -6858

https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3M219KR5vEneNb47ewrPfWyb5jQ2DjxRP6
note the two -12221   -15608

in the last week. it looks like binance removed 40.709 coins

but look closer to the
-6022
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/block/720638/34xp4vRoCGJym3xR7yCVPFHoCNxv4Twseo
it moved 5555 of it to another binance wallet
(yep it becomes a green + number in the 3M219KR5.. address )

-6858
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/block/720637/34xp4vRoCGJym3xR7yCVPFHoCNxv4Twseo
it moved 6666 of it to another binance wallet
(yep it becomes a green + number in the 3M219KR5.. address )

so out of the -6022-6858 (12880) only 659 not 12880.. just 659 went out

then we look at the
-12221
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/block/720866/3M219KR5vEneNb47ewrPfWyb5jQ2DjxRP6
it moved 12,000 of it to another binance wallet
(yep it becomes a green + number in the bc1qm34lsc65.. address )
and then the bc1qm34lsc65.. address then puts 18,528 back into......
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/block/721004/3M219KR5vEneNb47ewrPfWyb5jQ2DjxRP6
yep 3M219KR5.. address

then we look at the
-15608
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/block/720190/3M219KR5vEneNb47ewrPfWyb5jQ2DjxRP6
click the destination addresses and you see its within 2-3 swaps/clicks returning to binance cold store

so its not actually removing 40k coins from an exchange. its just shifting from exchange cold to exchange hot to exchange cold wallet of same said exchange

They may doesn't look that much to someone at all but still, huge money has been kept. Remember that there are only 900 bitcoins that are being mined per day. CMIIW.
So if you go and calculate the total amount, that's huge, and with the scarcity through mining and that makes sense that it could affect to the thinking of few people that are too worried about the market and have it question why these people are keeping it back to their cold wallets. That could affect them somehow with their judgment whether to buy more, hold or sell.

Hopefully it means there will be a supply shock soon & the price will fly up. We’re not seeing that yet though, we’re still in a downtrend since the all time high. I’m confident yet but would love to see a trend reversal.

Large purchases occur every time in the market and does not always reflect in the price of bitcoins. Movements of bitcoin into cold storage does not affect the market much either, especially when the motive of the transaction is just speculations.

With the current state of the market, many are looking for bullish news to lift the general market sentiment, but a rumored transfer of 40kBTC would not be enough to build resistance in the market.

all hope so, but if there is a mass sale at a low price it can destroy the value of bitcoin.
sometimes what is in the minds of hackers to take if only to make the price fall

it may have an impact, but only short. i don't think that amount can destroy the value of bitcoin. just compare it to the circulating supply of 19M, so it is roughly 0.21%. consider the "lost" BTCs and others. but the percentage is very small compared to the existing market supply. so nope, i don't think it can destroy the value of BTC
and besides, are they really going to sell those amount of btc, when it is speculated to rise its value in the coming years? maybe people are just speculating without basis here.

The question you didn't ask is "by whom?".
If users are pulling out their bitcoins then it could have an effect on the market since that affects the order books and more importantly the shorters since they won't be as much bitcoin for them to borrow and dump.
But if it is the exchange itself moving the coins to their own cold storage that means the order books are still pretty much the same and the exchange only does that when there is less withdrawal requests which is understandable since now the price is starting to become more stable and apart from those accumulating at this time there is a decrease in volume.

i couldn't really see that transaction tx where this 40,785 was sent out from the exchanges. or i don't know how to look at where that article maybe.

less circulating supply i guess makes the demand stronger and therefore prices could go up. that's what it means but we are not sure of this information, i don't even trust crypto news sites anymore.

Of course, you can't see that transaction, it's the total number of Bitcoins allegedly sent from crypto exchanges in a given period. The question is how accurate is this data given the number of crypto exchanges and the fact that they do not share such data publicly. In addition, anyone who reads only the first sentence of the article can clearly see that a certain on-chain analytics firm is mentioned (and this is the first time I've heard of it), so it can be concluded that this is just an attempt to promote that firm.

40 000 BTC means nothing in the overall picture because we do not know who the real owners of these coins are, whether there are thousands of individual owners or 50% of that amount belongs to a few whales trying to manipulate the price of BTC.

I heard from somebody who is somehow authoritative that one reason we are not really in the bear market is the continuing accumulation of Bitcoin by many investors big and small. And this movement of Bitcoin from exchanges can be part of the reason why he said we are in this important stage. Well, we are hoping that soon Bitcoin will be showing more energy than it is doing right now so it can be back to upward movements and get into a new ATH.

40,785 Bitcoin is not a small amount. It amounts to more than a billion in USD. That amount will definitely make a dent in the market, but how sure are we that the withdrawal was made by an investor who made the purchase from an exchange? How sure are we that it was an amount moved to a cold wallet? That it was meant to be hodled? There are many possibilities. It could have been a simple case of an exchange moving their own funds because they already have enough supply in their hot wallet. Or it could have been a seller who thought it wiser not to proceed with the sale. Or it could be otherwise, but it is not automatically a bullish case.

Hopefully, there is nothing to happen to bitcoin since the price now is in a good position to lift. But if something happens, such as the price is down, we need to prepare to buy more bitcoin at a correction. That is what is in my mind because if negative news comes out, that can make the price shake but not all negative news can do that. Only people who can calm down reading the news will benefit from that so you do not have to panic or think much about that. Just enjoy the market and enter the market if you want.

+1 here. I've always believed that these exchange inflow/outflow follows demand. No one wants to risk their coins sitting idly on huge orders waiting for the exchange to go belly up or get "hacked". Holders, if I venture, hold. They're liquidating near ATHs, or in batches as they require, but the ones really selling are traders, who of course only get more active when there's demand.

Don't jinx it though, when you wish for things to not happen, things would end up happening. There's a lot of factors in this situation though, these might mean an increase of demand because the people thinks that bitcoin is going to go up with the removal of those bitcoins away from exchanges or it could elicit fear and cause some people to sell. We will never know until it happens.

If you look at the charts, there is no strong correlation between coins moving away from exchanges and price growth. In fact you can clearly see periods when coins are moving away and the price still goes down.

IMO there is no metric that can help predict Bitcoin's price. Bitcoin price has always been chaotic and taking people by surprise. The only more or less stable pattern is that there's a big bull run between the halvenings.

agreed there are no correlations between coin moving out of cold wallets vs prices. .. especially in this topics example where the coins never really left binances control. it just moved from cold to hot to cold in the same week

..
that said you cant predict the exact price bitcoin will be. but you can find the value window the price sits within to then gauge if bitcoin still has a way to go before bottoming out or if its near bottom already
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5382559.msg59053731#msg59053731

almost all of us think like that, but it is not an easy act for hackers to sell openly, because the developers of bitfinex will also make efforts to recover its assets in various ways and at least they give warnings to current users.
it's actually very unlikely for hackers to drop the price of bitcoin just because they want to make a profit.
"Could this be a conspiracy?"

So, it was bitfinex that got hacked? I thought it was some kind of whales that moved his funds but I do not think hackers will care on the price of btc but as long they sell what they stole and make a profit, that is already good for them. If they dump all the coins at once, that can surely have a negative impact on the price because we are talking about 40k bitcoins here and how much is 1 bitcoin now? 30k'ish something ? That is a lot of cash if summed up.

Still, I do not think they can dump all what they got because they can be easily tracked that way but pretty sure they will sold it slowly and for them to be not tracked easily, they will try to use a bitcoin mixer.