Bitcoin Forum

Many are stating that quantum computer development could put Bitcoin security at risk in as few as 10 years.  With this development coming likely sooner than was anticipated, what does this mean for all of our Bitcoin collectibles?  Will we all be forced to peel and claim all of these coins once quantum computing is widely available?  It is starting to sound that way.  Could this be part of the reason why collectibles like Casascius coins aren't getting sky high premiums for their rarity and innovation?  Does anyone know of any way this could be defended against?  I know I had planned to hold certain collectibles forever (like my Minted Seats collection), but to think many of them have potentially already reached their half-life is a bit concerning to me both as a maker of Bitcoin collectibles and a collector of them.  Thoughts?

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/quantum-computer-development-could-put-bitcoin-security-at-risk-by-the-2030s

If the feds can crack the SHA-256 algorithm we have bigger problems than if we should peel or not peel our meme coin collections.

I feel my PM has inspired this post. lol This is one of my biggest fears about crypto. I feel the life span is super limited because of the new technology. Its scary and its inevitable. I have yet to hear a solution or a idea of how to defend against them. I guess nothing lasts forever. Like you said in PM you're better off not funding any of them. Which kind of sucks because funding them is half the fun. lol But I am curious to see everyone else's thoughts as I am somewhat of a newb around here and only been in crypto for a couple years.

Ballet wallets seem to be a bit more secure for long term storage due to the 2 part redemption process and the card needing to be in hand to withdraw? Please correct me if I am wrong

I've also read that SHA-256 is "quantum-resistant", but ofc things change rapidly so 🤷‍♂️

https://crypto.stackexchange.com/questions/59375/are-hash-functions-strong-against-quantum-cryptanalysis-and-or-independent-enoug

It's certainly a great time to be alive (and on your toes)!  ;D

I think unpeeled coins and paper wallets could still carry a decent value based on the lore and reputation behind their creators and resilence despite being a rather dated medium of storage at present. Obivously we should ideally be storing BTC on hardwallets, etc.

I collect them because I appreciate the portability and artistic expression and also because I like all things bitcoin. These quantum computing articles with their prognostications seem to pop up every couple of months and I'm really not worried especially since bitcoin is all software and can be forked as needed (not anytime soon though).

Perhaps those Casascius and Lealana keys won't be safe for an eternity, but it should continue to have a historic value especially if a more secure version is created in the future with the same level of trust that gives it value today.
 

If this is the case...why would a hardware wallets pub and priv key be safe? Wouldnt they also be cracked? So where would a person store his btc then?

Cracking the hash algorithm would mean that no form of key generation would at that point be safe. The owner of the quantum computer could brute force his way into your 24 seed words and back end steal the coins in your wallet. This would mean that even hardware wallets would not be safe at this theoretical point in time.

    Exactly!  Time to find another form of storing btc....perhaps a quantum computer can give us a better way to store BTC  ;)

Maybe it will be like nukes everyone will have them so no one will use them

Here’s Why Quantum Computing Will Not Break Cryptocurrencies   (https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerhuang/2020/12/21/heres-why-quantum-computing-will-not-break-cryptocurrencies/?sh=36f66830167b)

Wouldn't a bip 39 password make it exponentially harder though?

Yes a BIP39 password would make it harder to crack but how much harder?

I feel your pain, all those with loaded coins, notes etc.

There is a great thread over on the Development and Technical Discussion board
concerning QC > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5381812.0

As o_e_l_e_o quoted Satoshi in that thread, we would just move to a quantum
resistant algorithm but that wont solve the "to peel or not to peel" issue.

If you assume some cataclysmic scenario, then what would that imply about the nature of Bitcoin's price?

If 'keys are open' becomes reality, then it's not a matter of liquidating the collectibles and selling the Bitcoin, since that would be no different from doing today's equivalent of password-crack "hacking". Who would be there to buy it? Wait for your Bitcoin current edition is forked a couple more times, probably with a medley of shitcoins alongside it, if you are expecting anything. Though at any point you would have to deal with consensus regarding the changes, implementation, and arbitrary snapshot times if forked post-(mass-)quantum.

We GM long before that. Funds don't matter for us then. We collect for the collection not the funds. :P

I thought it is clear that bitcoin can and will evolve, i would not worry, a snapshot and a update and we fine, at most we will have a bit of downtime, which sucks but not serious.

Right now a quantum computer is as big as a gymnasium. The amount of heat they generate is the biggest problem. When they do get it all figured out. It wont be something we all have. There will be like 2 or 3 quantum computers on the planet. Definitely not worried about my coins being compromised. Like others have said. As quantum improves so will the blockchain technology.

But to stay on subject you will have to claim to "upgrade" to new keys if it happen one day.

A snapshot and update won't magically make your collectibles' addresses safe.  Bitcoins would have to move to a new address under your scenario, which means collectibles would have to be peeled for their bitcoins to be moved to a new address.  This will cost fees and need to be done BEFORE quantum computers compromise the network, not after.  I don't think not worrying is an option you can have for much longer (they're saying 10 years) without losing all of your bitcoins.  I get that for Bitcoin moving forward it would not be an issue, as they can upgrade the hashing algorithm.  However, it would mark the first time that legacy Bitcoin addresses would become useless, which is a major concern in my opinion.  Then there is also the concern of "satoshi's coins" and what happens once they're stolen by quantum computing.  It's almost as if there's a massive reward available for anyone able to break the encryption.  I don't know if there's any way around the chaos that is coming our way from a technical standpoint regarding legacy addresses, but I do know that it is something currently not being taken seriously by collectors and makers.

Devs could decide to expire the coins not moved a specific date.

I think QC is pretty far away and unless Bitcoin actually replaces a world power's  currency, governments and companies that can afford to run QCs won't be wasting the resources to hack Bitcoin. Isn't the main issue with QC is that they can only be programmed to do very specific tasks/calculations anyways?

I can't imagine that would be considered a legitimate solution, but I guess it's better than giving all the coins not migrated to a new chain to whoever can break the encryption.  While it's easy to dismiss quantum computing as too far away to be concerned about, it does in my opinion represent one of the greater challenges Bitcoin will face.  I don't see the developers stepping in to do anything with coins that aren't theirs.  I really haven't heard of and can't think of any fair and reasonable way to handle this challenge.  Never before have legacy Bitcoin addresses become useless, so it is indeed the great unknown what will happen.

 Was thinking of this thread when reading this
About a possible solution
Decrypt: Could Quantum Computers Defeat Bitcoin? Not So Fast..
https://decrypt.co/101340/bitcoin-quantum-computing

  .

   Edit:
   Also on an unrelated note.....was thinking....you hear about malware , viruses etc....infecting computers and searching for any addy in an attempt to sweep away your precious crypto. So I fig why not place a small Satoshi sample say 1000 Sats on your PC by leaving an exposed non encrypted paper wallet key  so in the event it's swept away it would kind of give you an indication something is going on on your PC. And yeah it could still be infected and not swept too...but what the hell...giving it a try as well.

   Yes I have a safe PC...run malware and antivirus programs and only safe websites are loaded...but I figure why not run a kind of litmus test for potential unknown attacks if they ever happen

From my understanding since SegWit got activated exchanging the SHA256 algorithm for a/any quantum resistant algorithm (which already existed in 2017 when the last hard-fork was carried out) is just a matter of another soft-fork... like taproot has been done. And the more nodes are run by single entities from the community the more 'votes' does the community get to decide about such future events.
This also means in a first attempt preventing quantum computers breaking/hacking Bitcoin we can just switch from SHA256 to SHA2048 and everything will be fine for another while...

So, when quantum computers come anywhere near breaking SHA256 (which needs more than 256qBits and especially for Bitcoin it needs way more qBits because: RIPEMD-160(SHA-256(pubkey)) is at work and not just SHA...) miners and pretty much anybody who's got skin in the game will have lots of incentives implementing the best available solution existing on earth that day.
Bitcoin-Qt is the 'consensus' of tested stable software as result of the BIP process (Bitcoin Improvement Proposals) all living and breathing because of open source.

When all of this might happen Bitcoin of course will be downwards compatible (you'll always be able to transfer 'non-quantum-resistant funds') but then we all will be well adviced to redeem our collectibles and transfer funds to quantum resistant addresses.

Don't nail my words to a cross but they are thought to give you a little bit of a relief if you read too much FUD ;-)

Edit4readability'n'correctness

@krogoth: for the exact same reason some days ago I thought about funding a BCmint coin with some honeypot-BTC. But by talking more about BCmint in the collectibles section long-con-scammers might be alarmed...

I read this today, which I thought was quite interesting and then I recalled this thread... :)

https://www.analyticsinsight.net/quantum-encryption-is-no-more-a-sci-fi-real-world-consequences-await/

Sounds scary, but I would like to know more about what it costs to run/own/operate one... ;D  /jk ofc! :D

The silicon transistor is the basic building block of modern CPU, GPU and ASIC. Breakthroughs in P and N doped materials to create semiconductors are the major breakthrough which made post vacuum tube technology possible. There is no quantum equivalent to a silicon transistor. That's the obstacle modern scientists will have to overcome to create a legitimate quantum computer IMO. It is quite a significant technical obstacle to overcome. I don't know if there is anyone in the world today who is seriously working on the problem.

There are no patents being filed for a quantum successor to the silicon transistor. There isn't anyone with a general concept or idea on how it might be possible. If there was they would be able to explain their design in 5 sentences or less. The basic principles which allow for semiconductors to function is very basic and fundamental. And that is what quantum computing technology is lacking at the moment.

So you are worried that a quantum computer could somehow reverse the hash and extract the public key from your addresses and then brute force the private key to steal your coins?

How does reversing the hash back from an address through 2 hashes work exactly?

A quantum computer could be at most 100,000 times faster than a binary one, if you distribute your coins across several addresses, it won't be worth the effort to crack one address for just 1 bitcoin, if QC becomes a threat.

I doubt the so called quantum computer will be developed by then. If they succeed, it will be very expensive and unecconomical to attack Bitcoin with it.

Bitcoin could potentially become quantum resistant if you could make it millions of times harder to brute force attack a private keys by using dynamic randomness to hide real keys in millions of empty keys. The nice thing about Bitcoin is it doesn't seem to limit how many address that can be generated.

Same is said about every new technology in the start. There were sayings about computer like, "There is No Reason for Any Individual To Have a Computer in Their Home, Ken Olsen". We cant say that Quantum computing can never be a reality based on historic data about new inventions. If Quantum computing is successfully developed and launched that not only cryptocurrency but many other areas like Cryptography will be affected as Quantum will break the today's encryption standard i.e. AES.

and by that time, the btc developers should have already come up with a solution. so i don't think they will just be sitting knowing that this currency is at its doom. we can't tell what the future holds but i guess devs will do as much as they can to preserve this currency. but right now, we don't know what quantum technology can really do to the crypto market. all are just speculations as no one knows what will actually happen in such situation.

I don't think there is much dev can do to alter the Bitcoin blockchain code since it cant be manipulated by a community of developers unlike other alts like Ethereum. In USA the President Biden has already signed the Act that is related to Quantum Computing Cybersecurity Preparedness (https://www.insidetechmedia.com/2023/01/10/president-biden-signs-quantum-computing-cybersecurity-preparedness-act/#:~:text=President%20Biden%20Signs%20Quantum%20Computing%20Cybersecurity%20Preparedness%20Act,-By%20Alexander%20Berengaut&text=In%20the%20final%20days%20of,Quantum%20Computing%20Cybersecurity%20Preparedness%20Act%E2%80%9D.), under this act the USA government is accepting the risk associated with the advent of Quantum computing in near future. So Quantum computing is a reality and will be there sooner or later. If we have Quantum computing officially launched then most of technologies circulating will be absolute.